I'm finally back in action - my blogging service was down all day. Plenty of stuff to talk about.
Scott Miller of CBS Sportsline is reporting that the Mariners are close to signing lefty starter Jarrod Washburn for $36-38MM over four years. 'Bout time they got a scoop over there. I'm surprised Scott Boras didn't hold out for more cash, milking Washburn's fluke of a 3.20 ERA.
Want to know a great way to identify someone who pitched way over his head? Find the starter with the biggest gap between his actual ERA and his component ERA. What the hell's a component ERA? It's where you look at a pitcher's peripheral stats - walks, home runs, and hits allowed - and compute what his ERA should have been. Check out the component ERAs from 2005 at ESPN. It's the most accurate way to predict ERA that I know of.
Anyway, Jarrod Washburn should've had a 4.19 ERA this year based on how he pitched. All sorts of lucky factors converged in his contract year, which pleases Mr. Boras very much. Washburn's not horrible - he'll throw up ERAs around 4 consistently. It's just that the man is hardly durable enough to be locking up for four solid years. I suppose Bill Bavasi thinks he had no other choice than to sign a Boras pitcher.
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