Scout.com: "Burnett Deal Almost Done"

We have been hearing reports that A.J. and the Cards are finalizing a deal for over a week and I am starting to become skeptical of varacity of the rumor. A.J. is in the same teir as Furcal this off-season and to think that he has only been working with one team seems odd. It seems more likely that he will not be signed for a little while longer as he fields other offers.

It is very plausible that he will sign with the Cards, as he has made it clear he wants to win, but what about the Mets, Cubs and Phillies. Not that any of those teams are a sure bet to be actively pursuing him: The Cubs have other important needs, the Mets have a very solid rotation, and the Phillies have been staying away from Free Agency, but I can't help questioning the notion that he has signed with the Cardinals even before there were any other major deals reported.

Just my opinion, but whoever signs Burnett to long-term money will regret the signing. He just isn't THAT good, and he has had TWO serious arm surgeries. He throws hard and has nasty stuff, terrific--so does Kerry Wood. Would YOU offer a 5/50 deal to Kerry Wood at this point?

Having said that, starting pitchers are just too tempting, I'm sure someone like the Cardinals will take the risk. I just hope the Cubs don't. I'd prefer the Cubs focus on guys who have proven they can stay healthy, give you 200+ IP, have good control, and good GB/FB ratios.

I still hope/wish there is a way the Cubs can trade for Derek Lowe, I'd take him in a heartbeat over Burnett. Ideal pitcher for Wrigley Field.

Although his move to the NL lowered Lowe's OBP against and ERA, someone needs to explain to me how in the hell he gave up 28 home runs last season while pitching in Dodger stadium. Something tells me that wouldn't translate well to Wrigley.

And While Lowe gets an unbelievable amount of groundballs Burnett is a much better fit for Wrigley as he is not only a groundball pitcher but a power guy who K's a lot of people - the perfect combination for Wrigley. Also his injury history shouldn't be much of a concern as he has missed one, maybe two starts since returning from his major arm surgery in 2003.

Is this a Cubs board? :)

I am not sure about the 5 year guarantee, but sometimes you just have to roll the dice. I think this (somewhat) risky move is a good one for the Cards. The potential upside is a lights-out rotation, and even if AJ turns out to be just a solid starter, with Carp, Mulder and Reyes it could work. A not so apparent upside is by bringing in another marqee pitcher, hopefully Mulder can get out of the spotlight and just put his head down and pitch. That first year was a little rough for him. In any event, anything but another aging outfielder!

On Lowe - Dodger stadium increases HRs by about 6%. Still suppresses runs by 13%.

As a lifetime Cardinal fan I hope they don't get A.j. He is vastly over-rated and the money is over the top. They need one or two outfielders and a second baseman much more than they need another .500 pitcher.

I have a serious problem with A.J. right now. In any other year where the free agent crop is stronger he would be at best a 3yr/18-20 million guy. Everyone who is saying he is overrated is absolutely correct. Look at his numbers the past five years:

2000: 3-7, 4.79 ERA
2001: 11-12, 4.05 ERA
2002: 12-9, 3.30 ERA
2004: 7-6, 3.68 ERA
2005: 12-12. 3.44 ERA

*I skipped 2003 because he only appeared in 4 games.

So while he has progressively improved and would make a good #2-3 starter in any rotation, he is not worth the top notch money he will recieve. Since when did pitchers with a career .500 record merit $7-8 million a year?

Don't misinterpret this post as a backtrack on my previous comment in which I stated he is "in the same tier as Furcal this off-season." As with Furcal he clearly is in the upper echelon of this year's free agent crop. My point in this post is that this off-season will continue to be marked with teams over paying for only above average talent.

With Burnett, teams are buying on potential rather than past performance. He's one of the few free agent starters who can improve. Matt Morris has never had a losing season, blah blah blah, but he's not getting better.

A pitcher's record is largely determined by his bullpen and offense, anyway.

Rumor,

With Burnett going to the Cards, how to the Cubs respond? Do they go after Morris? And if they do, I heard speculation from Cubs sites that Abreu may be packaged in a deal to get either Prior or Zambrano. I don't believe it for a second, but could it possibly be true, could Gillick really be that savvy?

Don't buy the Prior/Zambrano stuff. Wood could go if the Cubs find a taker.

ok Prior and Zambrano are a no go. But is Wood really a guy that teams want to trade for? You said Soriano as maybe an option? Is the asking price that high for a guy who can't stay healthy? And are there any indications that his is healthy right now for the upcoming season? Thanks.