Not Buying Baez

There's about a dozen different trade scenarios floating around where reliever Danys Baez ends up with the Mets.  In every one, the price is steep - it typically involves surrendering Aaron Heilman.  I was curious as to whether Baez is worth all this hype.  Let's take a look.

Vital Stats

Danys Baez is still young; he'll be entering his age 28 season in 2006.  The Cuban righthander throws a high 90s heater.  The D-Rays signed him as a free agent from the Indians through some sort of loophole, and he'll make $4MM in 2006. For his career, Baez has a 3.69 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 431 innings.

2005 Season

I'm guessing that some GMs or fans think Baez turned a corner in 2005 due to his 2.86 ERA.  I don't think he did.  He was about the same or worse in hits, home runs, walks, and strikeouts as he was in 2004, when he posted a 3.57 ERA.  Plug Baez's 2005 numbers into Bill James's component ERA formula, and he probably should've had a 3.74 ERA this year, a touch better than the immortal John Wasdin.

Taking a look at Baseball Prospectus's VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Baez was on par with Washington reliever Luis Ayala, and a bit worse than Pete Walker.  Those two guys don't throw hard, however, so they're not high on anyone's offseason shopping list.

The Save Factor

Even now, in 2006, relievers' saves totals are being overvalued.  Baez has saved 102 games in his career, and I think it's inflating his value tremendously.  It's tough for GMs to ignore that gaudy saves total from '05, 41 of them to be exact.  Does saving 40 games make you an elite reliever? 

Of course not.  Bob Wickman, Jose Mesa, Danny Graves, Mike Williams, Jose Jimenez, and Antonio Alfonseca are all just marginal relievers who happen to have been granted the opportunity to finish games.  Hell, Rocky Biddle saved 34 games in 2003.  To repeat the mantra of Moneyball: plug any halfway decent reliever into the 9th inning, he'll rack up saves and his value will be inflated.  Billy Beane has this down to a science, breeding closers and shipping them off for better players almost annually.

Back to Baez

Baez is tough to hit.  He does a reasonable job keeping home runs off the board.  He walks a lot of guys.  His strikeout rate is declining and may slip below league average in 2006.  He'll be making around $6MM in 2007 and beyond.  He's just not worth an Aaron Heilman, a Jae Seo, or any solid young pitcher.   

Comments

[Brian]

Very true.

[dan]

Of course he's not worth someone like Heilman. That's what makes it such a credible rumor! If it made sense, Minaya would never do it.

[Operation Shutdown]

A guy who throws high-90's heat and can't strike anybody out scares me.

[Eric]

Sounds like Braden Looper..

Can't K anyone and BB's plenty.

[sliver7]

I think what's being forgotten is how good he is when he's working just one inning.

Had the rest of the Rays' middle-relief not been so absurdly horrible the first half of the season in `05 (which all too often forced Baez to work the 8th in addition to the 9th), he'd look even better.

Personally, I'm hoping the Rays don't trade him at all.

Met officials have basically said Heilman's not going in a Baez deal unless they're throwing in someone else like Lugo.

[Eric]

I think the Mets should go after someone like Chris Ray, if they really want to trade Heilman. Nothing less should even be entertained.

It's funny how almost all Mets' talent is shopped around. Nobody would ever dream of trading someone like Kazmir... the Mets trade him. No other team would trade Milledge, the Mets entertain offers. This is a problem, I gather, the Cleveland Indians never have to face and the reason why I fear Omar Minaya will single-handedly ruin the next several years just to win a WS next year.

[James]

Omah is going to trade all the kiddies, and when the old guys break down, they will again be a 75 win team.

[Losing & Lovin It Since 1908]

Lt's Trade Angel Guzman
for Baez!
Baez would be an excellent setup guy and insurance for Dempster, should he falter in his closer role!

[Losing & Lovin It Since 1908]

Ernie Banks: "Lets Lose Two!"

[Rock Raines]

FYI, RumorMonger--

My source tells me the Cubs are talking to the Nats about Jose Vidro. Bowden doesn't want to admit defeat on the Soriano deal (bad bad trade), and he has Vidro's fat contract and injury risk to deal with. He's ready to move him for chump change.

Hendry loves these deals for guys coming off injuries, he can afford to let Vidro heal and sit for awhile if need be, he has multiple 2B on the team as it is.

Hendry is willing to take Vidro's contract as-is, if Bowden will take Corey Patterson. Hendry is offering Ronny Cedeno to complete the deal.

Stay tuned.

[Anthony]

So if this trade for Vidro goes down, it looks like more Nefi. The Cub are already playoff bound, but now you add the Nefi at short all year. All I can say is Great job Dusty! In Dusty We Trusty! Still

[JeremySpoke]

The Cub are only playoff bound if they get Babe Ruth in his prime or Barroid Bonds a year after he started juicing. Otherwise, they have as great a chance of making the playoffs as the Yankees have of finishing last in the AL East.

[Anthony]

Irony

[Bob]

Giving up Cedeno to get Vidro would be a very bad thing. Because then Neifi would be the starting SS for this team next season. If they could give KPatt and a minor league pitcher or two I would do the deal but not if they have to give up Ronny.

[A-ROD]

"The Cub are already playoff bound, but now you add the Nefi at short all year."

Sorry to tell you, but the Cubs play in the NL Central that includes the Cards, Stros, & Brew Crew.
At best I believe the Cubbies as they are presently constructed will finish third.

"All I can say is Great job Dusty! In Dusty We Trusty!"

Yeah I remember about
2 & 1/2 years ago when Cubdumb was praising Dusty as the next coming of Jesus Christ. It's funny of how time has proven most of them wrong.

Their is still hope for 2007 & 2008. Maybe Sweet Lou (Piniella) will be in Cubbie Blue, Felix Pie & Angel Guzman are the real deal, and Prior & Wood pitching mechanics dramatically improved.

For the Cubbies WAIT TILL NEXT YEAR(S)...

[RumorMonger]

Thanks for the update, Rock. Not thrilled with the deal, given the amount of money Vidro makes and how little he seems to have left.

[A-ROD]

Why would Hendry offer Cedeno for a 2nd baseman who is injury prone and might not be the same player ever again?

It should just take
Cory Patterson and Rich Hill to complete this deal.
As well as the Cubs would have to assume the rest of Vidro's salary

[Andrew]

"Sounds like Braden Looper..
Can't K anyone and BB's plenty"

How on earth can you compare Beaz to looper? I think looper will go down as one of the most hated mets of all time.

[RumorMonger]

Pretty sure this was the basis for comparison:

Can't K anyone and BB's plenty

Vidro is just 31 years old, and every year he's been a regular from 1998 through 2004 he's posted an OPS over 825, and twice over 900. He has a steady glove and good plate discipline.

To say Vidro has "nothing left" is pretty extreme. The guy was injured. If he's healthy--and the only reason you could acquire him is because he's coming off an injury--he's the best offensive 2B in baseball.

As for Cedeno, the kid looks like a decent future SS, but he's no all-star in the making. His upside is Julio Lugo. Big deal. No way would I substitute Rich Hill for Cedeno, Hill's upside is as a #2 starter.

Finally, I hate Neifi as much as the next guy, but if the rest of your lineup is solid and you stick Neifi in the #8 hole in the lineup, he's not going to hurt you that much. He is a solid defensive player and helps the bench by covering all three non-1B infield positions.

Patterson and Cedeno for Vidro, I hope it happens. Would be even better if Bowden covered some of Vidro's cash.

[RumorMonger]

Is Vidro's age 31 season really that much better than Todd Walker's age 33 season?

[Governor Arnold]

I can't imagine giving up anything of value for Vidro. As good a player as he was, he is now very limited on defense and is a HUGE health risk.

What's left on Vidro's contract anyway? If it's more than 1 year, Bowden should have to pay someone to take it off his hands.

[RumorMonger]

$16MM over the next two seasons. If the Nats ate half of it, I'd at least discuss.

[Governor Arnold]

"Is Vidro's age 31 season really that much better than Todd Walker's age 33 season?"

Absolutely not! There's a good chance that Vidro's done because of the nature of his injury. He may not make it out of spring training.

[RumorMonger]

Yeah, that's my stance on it as well.

[A-ROD]

"Hill's upside is as a #2 starter."

No way, he only has two pitches (especially his nice curve), I see becoming at best an above-average Set-Up Reliever

[Eric]

Looper and Baez suck. If the Rays want a minor leaguer, fine, but Seo or Heilman? They can go toss off to a photo of Kazmir, because that type of rip-off would have never happened if any rational human being were at the helm.

Mets management has been run by monkeys ever since McIllvaine left. Even Phillips killed us towards the end!

[Rock Raines]

Well, I'm sure glad "A_ROD" is here to set us all straight on Rich Hill's future! Those major league scouts I've talked to, they obviously are deranged to think Hill can be a #2 starter. Maybe Rich has some embarassing photographs of some of baseball's top GMs, too, that would explain why Rich Hill was discussed so actively in Las Vegas in November.

[Cubbies]

If we can trade Pie and get Vedro, we have to do it! Vidro is the best 2nd in baseball. He would immmediately make us division winners. Do it Hendry!

[sox_fan]

maybe the mets will take baez and flip him to the RedSox in the much hyped 4-way Manny deal?

[A-ROD]

When Hill becomes even a #3 Starter, I will then EAT CROW.

Until then I will stand by my stance on Hill.
I do recall him facing and sitting down Giambi, Sheffield, and Matsui i a row. However that ERA of over 9 is quite alarming especially for a prospect who is 25

[Eric]

I'm sure, as a Sox fan, you don't want what we're shoveling. Frankly, as a Mets fan, I don't want Manny. It's not that he isn't good, it's what he COSTS. Maybe the Sox should just go after Gathright and go for a division title instead. I can't see them competing if they trade Manny.

[A-ROD]

Rich Hill - 2005 Stats
0-2
21 Strike Outs
17 Walks
23.2 Innings Pitch
24 Runs & all Earned Runs

For every Inning this guy pitches, he gives up a run.
Not a good sign for a "potential #2 Starter"

[RumorMonger]

C'mon dude, you can't judge a pitcher by 23.2 innings. That's like judging a hitter by, I dunno, 50 at-bats.

[Jack]

I agree with "A-Rod" however not based on his numbers in the majors this past year. RumorMonger is right; you can't judge a guy on 23 innings. But the way I see it, Hill doesn't have a third pitch, and is too old to be considered a great prospect. If I were Jim Hendry I'd make him available.

[Jack]

Dude whoever said Vidro is the best second basemen in baseball is nuts. And for Pie? What the hell is wrong with you?

[Jack]

More on Baez:

According to Baseball Prospectus' WXRL stat Baez was the 11th best reliever in baseball with a contribution of about 4.5 wins.

A question I have is why everyone was up in arms with Hendry giving Dempster 3 years and $15.5 million? The guy finised fourth in WXRL addding 4.7 wins to the Cubs, and Hendry managed to lock him up before he hit the insane relievers market that was this offseason. Dempster has to be kicking himself for signing as early as he did. He would have made so much more had he waited probably.

[Jack]

Actually I made a mistake. Dempster added about 5.1 wins last year, not 4.7