Bowden Still Chasing Wily Mo

Tucked at the bottom of Bill Ladson's article about the Nationals' attempts to convince Alfonso Soriano to play left field is a new trade rumor.  Well, a new old trade rumor.  According to Ladson:

"The Nationals already have feelers out for Reds outfielder Wily Mo Pena, and a Nationals scout is expected to look at him sometime this week.

The Nationals have been after Pena since last season. He is a player who Bowden acquired from the Yankees when he was the general manager of the Reds. Last year, Pena hit .254 with 19 home runs and 54 RBIs for Cincinnati. Bowden has always believed that Pena has the potential of being a similar player to Sammy Sosa."

Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system calls for a breakout season for Wily Mo this year; something along the lines of .280 with 33 HRs in a full season.  In my own estimation, a healthy Pena might hit .253 with 33 HRs.  No one's disputing his power, but only PECOTA thinks Pena can make a batting average jump along the lines of his comparables, Jesse Barfield and Willie Stargell.

The Reds' desire in any Pena trade will be pitching, pitching, and more pitching.  On the Major League level, the Nationals feature John Patterson plus a whole lot of other guys that would not bring Pena in a trade.  It would be crazy for the team to trade Patterson, so let's see what's in the minors.

The Nats' farm system is barren.  According to Baseball America, the club's best young pitchers are Collin Balester, Mike Hinckley, Bill Bray, and Daryl Thompson.  I would've added Armando Galarraga, but the Nats traded him to Texas in the Soriano deal.  None of these guys are close to the Majors, so Bowden would probably have to rope in a third team to get one of their pitchers involved.  Even then, they don't have much to offer. If Bowden can somehow turn Soriano, a huge mistake, into Pena, he deserves many accolades.     

Comments

[Ed]

As a Reds fan, I would say "Adios!" to Wily Mo. He has power and.....that's about it. If the Reds can get some good, young pitching for him, they should jump on it. Hopefully Bowden really still has a man-crush on him and is willing to part with some young pitching.

[Irwin]

Have any teams expressed interest in Soriano since the Nats got him? As a Nats fan, its nice to see an objective assessment of the Soriano deal as a mistake. I am cast as a cynical hater by the whole of Nats fandom who are insufferbale Kool-Aid drinkers: they think Sori will happily play LF and post the same numbers as in Texas, Zimmerman will hit .300 and win ROY, Armas will win 15 games, Guzman and Vidro will return to All-Star form, and the Nats will win the NL East.

[RumorMonger]

On the bright side, the Zimmerman hitting .300 idea is entirely feasible...

At one point I believe the Cubs made a little noise on that...

[Irwin]

Are there any projections out for Zimmerman? I am not well-versed in number crunching, but for .397 in 58 AB's, I thought he looked pretty susceptible to breaking pitches against righties last year.

[RumorMonger]

Sure...I have him at .294-8-64, PECOTA says .279-11-60, and ZiPS says .309-7-39.

[Irwin]

Thanks, Monger!

[Daniel]

I think you overlooked one of the better minor league pitchers the Expos have - Clint Everts. He was considered one of the best arms in the minors before TJ surgery, but is on his way back. I bet the Reds might pull the trigger for Everts.

[Daniel]

Obviously I meant Nats. I was born in Canada - so they'll always be the Expos to me.

[RumorMonger]

Have to admit I don't know much about the Nats' farm system beyond BA's prospect list and a few other things I've read.

[Erik]

Just look at the NL East third baseman:

1. Zimmerman
2. Wright
3. Cabrera
4. Chipper

Jesus. I'd hate to choose for the all-star game.

[David]

We will include Eric Milton+Anderson Machado+Jung Bong for John Patterson and Tony Armas.

[Erik]

"We will include Eric Milton+Anderson Machado+Jung Bong for John Patterson and Tony Armas."

*Laughs the Laugh of the Criminally Insane*

ERIC MILTON!

[Jay]

Hey don't knock Milton just cause he had a bad year last season. I am not saying he is great by any means but the guy is going to have a better year this year now that he returning to his old pitching style where he uses his legs more. As far as Pena goes I think Washington and Cincy don't match well either. A third team would have to come in to get Cincy the much needed upper end of the rotation kinda guy they are looking for in order for a deal to go down. I see the Reds getting the guy or two they need at the trading deadline if they can hold in there til then. Either Pena or Kearns will be traded at the trading deadline or before to get help with the season. Money for once won't be an issue with the new owner at the trading deadline. He has already said he would bump it up if it helped the team win this season.

[Darin]

Erik:
What the hell happened to the three best 3rd basement in the National league? Ensberg, Ramirez and Rolen.

[Erik]

"What the hell happened to the three best 3rd basement in the National league? Ensberg, Ramirez and Rolen."

Wright, Cabrera and Zimmerman are already better. I'd take any of them over those three.

Yes. You read that right. I'd take Zimmerman, Wright or Cabrera over Rolen/A-Ram/Ensberg. Why? Let's see...

1. Rolen's is turning 31 and coming off LABRUM surgery.

Assuming he recovers, Rolen has never hit .300 in any season in the big leagues, while Cabrera, Wright alrady have over an entire season. Ryan Zimmerman is a better defensive player than Rolen.

2. Ensberg is a joke. I just point to his collapse rate and laugh. Again, another inconsistent "old player skills" type. Look for an early decline.

3. I like A-Ram. You could make that argument.

However, I was talking about the NL East, not your fetid stench of a Central division. When Ensberg and Rolen are retired, those three NL East 3-baggers will be smoking the league.

C'mon... pay attention!

[Ryan]

Erik: I understand that Zimmerman is a highly-touted prospect, and that everyone has a hard-on for his defense (and deservedly-so), but to say he's better than Rolen defensively? Rolen has 6 gold gloves already. He also *has* batted over .300 in a season, although he's only done it once, and he only had 500 PA that season. His career average, though, is .284. As much as I hate to say it, Rolen is the best third baseman in the NL at this point in time, if he's healthy. Cabrera, Zimmerman, and Wright all have tremendous upside, but they aren't already better than Ensberg, Ramirez, or especially Rolen.

Ensberg is a joke? Nice one. Granted, he's exiting his prime years (31) but with the short porch in Houston, he'll continue to put up nice numbers.

Here's what he did the last 3 years.

2003 25 60 .291
2004 10 66 .275
2005 36 101 .283

Granted Wright is an impressive young player, but Zimmerman hasn't done anything at the major league level, and Cabrera is just moving to 3B this year.

[Kyle]

I beg to differ on that one. Cabrera and Wright may be the two best third baseman in the NL. I agree that you cant just hand Zimmerman anything until he proves it. But if you compare Wright and Cabrera to Rolen, Ramirez and Ensberg. I would rate them as such.
1. Wright
2. Cabrera
3. Rolen
4. Ramirez
5. Ensberg

All of these guys at there best are 30 homer 100 RBI guys what seperates Wright and Cabrera is that they are both very capable of hitting a consistent 300. Add on top of that Wright's ability to get close to 20 steals and he is clearly the best 3rd baseman in the NL

[Ed]

Here's a thought...how about Wily Mo to Florida for one of their young pitchers? They have 5 SPs in BA's top 100 prospects, along with Dontrelle. They are going to need some power when these guys get to the majors and Pena is only 24. Not saying they would be able to get Olsen or Sanchez, but maybe one of the other guys. And since Pena hits tape measure HRs, the larger ballpark won't hurt him too much. I think Krivsky should get on the phone. Thoughts?

[RumorMonger]

Not a bad idea. Given that the Fish entertained Olsen for Gathright, Pena should be equally intriguing to them.

[Kyle]

If they could pull off deals for Pena and Gathright the Marlins could be good in a hurry. An outfield of Hermida, Gathright, and Pena would be very productive

[David]

I think the major problem with that is though.

Reds would be asking for possibly Vargas. I know I would be, he was impressive last year and I really staring wanting him to be a Reds when he shut us down like rookies.

[Ed]

I think Florida's depth of legitimate pitching prospects would give Cincy the luxury of not focusing on one pitcher. The Marlins might have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball in a few years and nothing in the hitting dept. Cabrera, Hermida that's about it. In 3-4 years Pena would be hitting his prime. True he might be hitting .260, but 35 HRs is a lock. I think this is logical for both sides.

[Doug]

One little tidbit about Cabrera: he was a outfielder most of his career. He is only the third basemen because of the Lowell trade. Also, Miguel has the potential, but he will not have the supporting cast to help his numbers. I predict somewhere around 25-30 HR with about 80-90 RBI's because of the fire sale. Many teams will pitch around him, and it will be only a matter of time until he gets frustrated and gets too aggresive.

And here's MY third basemen list:
1- Scotty Rolen
2- A-Ram
3- D. Wright
4- Cabrera
5- Zimmerman

Rolen has had almost 7 months of rest, plus rehab for his shoulder. it is cleaned up, so he should be ready to go for opening day. as you can tell, im a cards fan, but scott is more than just a batter. there are a million of plays that he make that dont even make Sportscenter. i believe that david wright will probably inherit scotty's place as the top thirdbasemen in probably two years when scott begins to regress and david hits his prime. i would rate cabrera higher, but his supporting cast downgrades him.

[Ed]

FYI...Cabrera was an infielder (SS and 3B) coming up through the minors and moved to the OF b/c of Lowell.

[GuyinNY]

I think it bears to note that the Miguel Cabrera who played SS in the minors (and adeptly played 3B in the waning months of the 2003 season in place of an injured Mike Lowell) is long gone. That fellow was a 20 year old with plenty of filling out to do. This is a 23 year old who's pretty well filled out. This isn't to say that he's incapable of playing the poisition, and I actually think he can probably handle the hot corner, but Miggy's a big boy now. His defense is likely to be sub-par, but passable. I know Cabrera doesn't love the OF, but he might be best suited to it.

Rolen had an injury last season that was far from attractive, and it seems to be a chronic condition. If he comes back at full strength, he's still not the player we saw in 2004, as that was his career year. He's an all-star caliber player, but let's remember that health matters. Rolen's not been healthy since summer of 04, and that matters to me. Cabrera's a question mark at the hot corner to me until he shows otherwise. David Wright showed strong improvement over the course of last season, and he's the most rounded of the 3b. Zimmerman's glove is supernatural, and his stick should play, but I still want to see something more than a great cup of coffee. Ramirez is a fine player, but really, his bat is not in the same class as Miggy or Wright, numbers or not. Those two are intimidators, and that matters. Zimmerman is a different breed than the others, so its a bit of apples and oranges.

Of course, all this conjecture is the fun of spring. Who is the best? We shall see!