The Shortstop Trade Market

By my count, five starting shortstop candidates may be on the market currently:  Miguel Tejada, Orlando Cabrera, Cesar Izturis, Craig Counsell, and Julio Lugo.  The Red Sox, Cubs, Twins, and Mariners are all at least semi-contending teams with shortstops that have to be considered less than a sure thing.  Add in a surprise injury or two, and there's sure to be some shortstop movement in the coming months.  Let's break down the five most likely to be dealt.

Miguel Tejada was worth 7.6 wins in 2005 and projects to be worth 6.8 in 2006.  He'll be 30 years old and will earn $48MM over the next four seasons.  He's an impact player who's been named in countless trade rumors, even involving teams that already have decent shortstops in place.  The Orioles will try to extract a young starter with top-rotation potential if Tejada is traded.  I have a feeling that Tejada will either be dealt before the season begins or not until after the season.  Just a hunch, but I think he'll have a lousy first half and damage his trade value. 

Julio Lugo was surprisingly almost as valuable as Tejada in 2005, tallying a 7.0 WARP score.  Baseball Prospectus expects him to come down to Earth this year but still be worth 5.2 wins.  He's also 30 years old and will become a free agent after earning $4.95MM in '06.  Tampa Bay's new management is looking for young pitching and nothing but.  A Jonathan Papelbon type would probably do the trick, but teams obviously aren't quick to part with that type of pitching talent for a rental shortstop.  Lugo is pretty much a lock to be traded before the July deadline, and it could take a three-team deal for them to find the pitching prospect(s) they desire.

Craig Counsell is the elder statesman of the group at age 35.  He's been on a couple of World Series winners, which adds a nice intangible.  He earned 6.1 wins as a 2B in 2005, and will move to shortstop for the Diamondbacks with their acquisition of Orlando Hudson.  He projects to be worth 3.2 wins in '06 and will earn just $1.75MM.  Counsell falls under the bargain rental category for a team anxious to improve defense up the middle.  The D-Backs will probably flip him at the deadline whether or not Stephen Drew is ready.  Unless they're in the thick of the playoff race, Alex Cintron could probably hold down the position for a half season.

Orlando Cabrera signed a big contract last offseason, and he's still owed $23MM over the next three seasons.  Once an incredible defender, Cabrera has slipped a bit but was worth 4.1 wins in 2005.  He projects as a 3.5 win player in 2006, so teams won't be anxious to take on the 31 year-old's contract.  The Angels have some great shortstop candidates pushing their way up through the system, but the team hasn't always been quick to unload overpaid vets in the past.  The Red Sox probably wouldn't mind having him back, but only if the Angels picked up most of the tab.

Cesar Izturis is recovering from Tommy John surgery and the 26 year-old was shocked to see the Dodgers sign Rafael Furcal to a three-year contract.  The club might choose to keep him around as a second baseman after Jeff Kent leaves, creating the best defensive middle infield in the game. A summer trade would make sense too.  He earned just 2.4 wins in a partial 2005, but was a 4.4 win player the year before.  He plays good D but hasn't been much with the stick outside of 2004.  Izturis will earn $7.25MM over the next two seasons and has a $5.45MM club option for 2008.  There's a $300K buyout attached to the option.  Izturis would make a decent pickup in that he's young enough to improve in coming years.

Comments

[BoSox04]

David Wells for Izturis
Dodgers get a veteran pitcher for the rotaion while the red sox get a shortstop for this year then can move him to 2nd
in 07 and let Padroia play SS in 07.

[nick]

David WElls for Izturis and Brazabon
because of Izturis's contract and health concerns

[english_alex]

I don't think the Red Sox want Cabrera back at all.

[Jerry]

Just a note,

No way are the Mariner's looking for another SS. They are very very happy with Yuneski Betancourt. Most people who don't follow the M's closely don't know much about him, but he is probably the best defensive SS in MLB. He is good.

If Betancourt got hurt, the M's would very likely move Jose Lopez to SS and play Willie Bloomquist or Fernando Vina at 2B.

The M's have so many prospects at SS and 2B in thier system that they are moving top prospects to other positions (i.e. Adam Jones).

As it stands, they would not be interested in another SS. If they had a rash of injuries, they would probably just bring in a stop-gap (Oswaldo Navarro) and wait for Asdrubal Cabrera to come up through the system.

[Diego]

Don't forget Matt Tuiasosopo, Jerry. Or Mike Morse.

Or Michael Garciaparra (haha).

[Paul]

Frankly I can't believe that Lugo Wasn't moved for Marte in the Offseason the d-rays would be scoring 900 runs in 08

[Paul]

The Twins Grabbing Lugo woudl be nice but all teams don't like renta players but the Twins Really really really don't do it. and there's the playroll issue but a Lugo for Loshe deal would work around midseason but the Twins would porbally have to throw in a pitching prospect Perkins maybe but i really like him and he's a minnesota kid and that would be great if he was thorwingn to mauer one day.

[angelfan]

I'll back up Jerry - Betancourt is an incredible fielder. The only question with him is how much he'll hit.

[moore]

I think the best Deal would be the Red Sox and Dodgers trade

Izturis,Ledee and Brazoban of the Dodgers for Wells, Stern and a player to be named of the Red Sox

Brazoban know place to play have Beaz and Gagne
Izturis great have Furcal and Ituris wants to be a SS
Ledee would be a great 4th outfielder for the Red Sox or DH
Stern could be a good pick up for the Dodger they need helpin the outfield in the farm,Wells would help them be able to trade a SP for Huff or a other power outfielder

[moore]

Furcal could be seeing some time in CF,they then could be trade talk about trtadeing Ledee and a play to be named to the Red Sox for Wells

[Kyle S]

What about Lugo to the Braves for Thomson or ramirez, and Pete Orr