What's Derrek Lee Worth?

Baseball Prospectus has a cool new stat called MORP.  I know what you're thinking - "What the hell is MORP?  It sounds made up."  Well, bear with me because it's interesting stuff and it may be at least one point of data considered by Jim Hendry when drawing up Derrek Lee's next contract.

MORP stands for Market Value Over Replacement Player, and it's an attempt to place a dollar value on a player's total offensive and defensive production.  Today I think it'd be cool to look at the projections for Derrek Lee for the next several years and try to determine a fair amount for his contract extension.

First, let's start off by looking at Lee's 2005.  He hit .335/.418/.662 in 691 plate appearances, perhaps the best offensive performance in baseball.  He also played plus defense at first base.  The sum total of his efforts was 10.6 wins.  That's right - Lee was worth more than ten wins for the Cubs all by himself.

No one expects Lee to sustain that level of production as he enters his 30s.  But Jim Hendry and Co. are going to need to project Lee's production and place a dollar value on it for his contract offer.  Now, Paul Konerko is a similarly aged first baseman, and he just received a five-year contract for $60MM.

Let's look at a five-year deal for the first scenario.  Over the next five seasons, Lee is projected to be worth 27 wins (combining offense and defense).  If you factor in inflation and assign the proper value to each win he earns, Lee will be worth about $45MM over the next five seasons.  We all know that Lee and his agent wouldn't dream of accepting a contract averaging $9MM coming off the season he had.  He'll want Konerko money and then some, perhaps $65-75MM.  That would put the Cubs out at least $20MM, so let's get creative.

What about offering a three-year extension? Lee is projected to be worth $36,575,000 over the next three seasons.  Significant decline shouldn't set in until his age 33 season three years from now.  How about an offer of $42MM for 2006-2008?  The deal would replace his $8MM salary for 2006.  Lee would average a healthy $14MM annually, and the Cubs would finish up before major decline sets in.  Perhaps it'd be necessary to offer no-trade protection to seal the deal.

It's expected that after the 2008 season, the 33 year-old Lee would start to slip measurably on both offense and defense.  On the face of it, he'd still look like a .290-30-100 hitter and could command a massive free agent contract elsewhere.  All of these projections and speculation come with the usual disclaimer: obviously no one has a crystal ball and Baseball Prospectus could be dead wrong on this stuff.  No one can project five years into the future.  But the three-year, $42MM proposal here seems like the ideal course of action for Cubs management. 

Comments

[tp]

that's why marquee players rarely take less than a five year deal, so their decline is covered in the contract.

[RumorMonger]

True, but there are notable exceptions like Furcal and Aramis Ramirez.

[Cubbies in my stove]

Did I seriously just read the D. Lee is worth $14MM a year for the next three years?? He had a great season no doubt, he was one of the first serious contenders for the triple crown in a long time, but to value him that highly is ridiculous when you consider his career line.

For his career D. Lee has batted: .276 with 33 Hrs and 88 RBI's. (I've excluded years he played less than 140 games) While that is very solid production, it is not Albert Pujols type numbers. In defense of Lee, however, he has boosted his HRs and RBIs steadily every year since 2001.

We all know about "career year" syndrom, and D. Lee could have one of the most massive hangovers of all time. Although, it is far more likely that he will only drop down to his former status.

My projection for Lee in 2006:

.304 with 38 HRs and 102 RBIs.

Because of the unsurity of Lee's production following last years monster season, the Cubs would be wise to either wait until July before drafting an extension or, possibly trying to sign Lee to a three year deal in which he is garunteed $MM35-40, with incentives that could boost it to around $MM50-55.

A mutual option for a 4th year would also be a smart move in any sort of deal between the two parties.

[RumorMonger]

$42MM over the next three seasons does not at all assume he maintains his 2005 production.

It assumes he's worth an average of 6.17 wins per season, which would be a 42% drop in production from his 2005.

[Mark H]

If it was me, I would try to negotiate a contract for $33-36MM over 3 years, and offer an opportunity for incentives that could take it up to around $42MM. That would give him the chance to make an additional $2-3 million per year based on performance. While some of the things that D. Lee does for the Cubs are priceless, I would like to see his follow-up year before handing him a guaranteed $14MM per season. I think the $11-12MM with incentives up to about $14MM could probably work nicely. I think the catch there would be, as you were probably thinking, whether Lee wanted more years guaranteed. On a 3-year deal, it may take the $14MM you suggested to get the deal done.

[Cubbies in my stove]

I am not a fan of VORP statistics; they are rather messy pieces of data. However, assuming that you are using a correct "statistic," $MM14 a year is still high to be garunteeing a player like Lee. Yes, many solid players command $MM12-15 contracts by their by age 30 and/or their 3rd contract, but the Cubs should not be throwing that kind of money into the risk he represents. I stand by my assertion that they should be offering him $12MM a year with incentives that could bring his salary as high as $MM17-18 per season. That kind of incentive laiden deal would avoid creating a Richard Hidalgo/Sammy Sosa like situation.

[RumorMonger]

Yeah I like the way you're thinking on that Mark, start out with what he's truly likely to be worth and then tack on another $5MM to get the deal done.

But Cubbies, why would a player like Lee accept an incentive-based deal when he could be guaranteed at least $65MM over five years on the open market?

[Ian M]

It's impossible to "predict" a player's dollar value. Their dollar value is based almost exclusively on:
A) The current market for players at that position of similar production, and
B) The year he just had.

It would be great if GMs could say "he's worth X amount of wins, therefore he gets Y dollars," but that is fantasy. Being the math wizards that you are, surely you understand the concept of a variable. And super-agents like Scott Boras can make any pre-ordained equation look fuzzy.

Just you guys wait until Lee picks up some ludicrous five year, $65 million contract....

[RumorMonger]

Yeah, they do base contracts on the previous season, and that's why 95% of free agent contracts are terrible.

It's fantasy that GMs try to project performance before committing $40 million? Alright dude.

[Kyle]

No I guarantee you they project performance but there is no clear cut equation he is saying. The problem is you also have to deal with the market. A guy may be worth 6 wins but if he is the best player available you can bet he is going to make more than a player worth 6 wins in a deep position. If Lee hits the free agent market he will want a Konerko esque contract he may not be worth it I dont know but I would bet there is some team out there willing to pay it to him

[Kyle]

At the same age Lee has 2 less career home runs a 3 point lower batting average 63 less RBI's as well as 74 more steals Lee also has two gold gloves to Konerko's 0. With Boras as an agent you can bet he is asking for at least the same contract as Konerko. If I was the Cubs I would try to sign him before he hits free agency and before the Sox or Yanks decide to bid on him. I would offer 4 yr 52 million extension mid season. Lee has played in 150+ games in 6 straight seasons

[RumorMonger]

I was under the impression that Casey Close is Lee's agent, but I could be wrong.

Of course there is no clear cut equation and the market dictates value. I'm showing the best estimate of his actual worth here.

[Kyle]

You could be right I was just going off of what Ian M said

[Kyle]

I looked it up you are correct that Casey Close is the agent none the less it doesnt decrease how much money he will get by much

[REM]

Konerko brought a championship to Chicago...Can't put a dollar amount on that

[RumorMonger]

Actually REM that is worth six bucks, equal to the price of a couple of Subway sandwiches.

[Braves "fan"]

I happen to believe that just about every free agent signing is a bad one, it just so happens that they get exponentially worse as you add years and millions to the contract. This is the real key behind the Braves prolonged success: they just don't hand out big money, long term deals unless they have to. They let Sheff and Drew walk out the door and did just fine, but they kept Chipper and Andruw because they are both among the best of all time at their respective positions.

That said, with a big market team like the Cubs, I feel that the years are worse than the millions. So, if you could get D. Lee locked up for 3 years instead of 5 by offering a bit more money per year, I think you both win. Furcal signing with the Dodgers is a great example of that. I agree with whomever said that they need to get a deal done before he hits the market. But always remember the wisdom of Moneyball (forgive me if I mess this quote up a bit, as I'm working off of memory here) "you can always recover from the player you didn't sign, but you may never recover from the player you sign at the wrong price".

[REM]

Funny, it only costs 6 bucks for a championship and the Cubs still can't figure out a way to bring one home.

[NeifiChicken]

Personally, I'd avoid doing anything if I'm Hendry.

To me, Lee still has to prove his 2005 was real. His value can only go down after last season, and next year is deep with 1B options (albeit, none at the level of Lee's 2005). Spending that same money on Lee could possibly land Nick Johnson and a good 2B (pretty deep as well)

[Jon]

Personally, I'd wait until July if possible. Let's see what kind of season D Lee has this year and if last year was for real. Then, you avoid overpaying based on one GREAT year, and both the Cubs and DLee will win--D Lee will get the money he deserves and the Cubs won't overpay.

[Jon]

REM--which team are you a fan of, or are you afraid to say cuz you'll get ripped on?

[REM]

To any person with below average or greater intelligence it is obvious I am a White Sox fan. So if you truly believe you can "rip" on me for that it reinforces all believed stereotypes of cub "fans" as truth.

[steven]

the problem with that stat is that it will never be an accurate measure for the top players. it could be nice in filling out the mid level guys on your roster. however, the top of the line guys are always going to get paid way over their value. you can look at it and say it would be better if they signed him for 3 years but what agent is going to fall for that ploy. the other problem with that stat it will always be need independent. by definition the so called average player is still better than 50 percent of the players. if you have one of those lower players as your only other realistic option their value to the team is more than just over the average.

[RumorMonger]

Again, players can and do sign short-term contracts.

[Jon]

REM--it has nothing to do with intelligence or lack thereof, it has to do with the fact that I don't pay much attention to your posts and the bull**** you spew. I only know your name b/c of the pot you stir. Regardless of whether the Sox won the series, they're still the 2nd baseball team in Chicago.

[A's Eh]

$14 per at 1B is a lot for someone that basically catches the ball.
I'm not criticising Lee him but speaking to the job at 1B in general.
The same $$$ get you a #1 or #2 starter. The same $$$ get you the best centerfielder, Secondbaseman, Shortstop, etc.

Being an A's fan has impressed upon me how easily money can be well spent or poorly spent.

Why wouldn't you let the year play out with a very motivated Lee playing harder in 2006 for the expected upgrade to a 3-5 year contract?

It would seem to be a win-win. If he duplicates last year he proves his value and if he slips, ...either way the team can extend an appropriate offer.

If he walks maybe you have another player ready to move to 1B or come up from AAA to learn the position.

In other words; "Whats the hurry"

[Jason]

Hate to nit-pick, but MORP is actually Marginal Value Over Replacement Player, not Market Value Over Replacement Player.

It looks like it also takes into consideration the major league minimum and inflation.

[Cubsrule]

because lee doesnt need extra motivation like lots of other players thats why, he goes out and gives 110% everyday no matter what, hes one of the hardest workers in any sport

[steven]

yeah there are some exceptions but for the most part shorter deals come earlier and later in players careers. most players coming off top years around lee's age seek as many years as they can get. look at what konerko got and he took less to stay with a winner. if the cubs dont make the playoffs again lee will have little motivation to do anything like that.

just look at the damon negotiations. the red soxs initial offer was the 3 year deal that would follow along the numbers this stat would suggest. however, just offering that deal to damon was basically insulting enough to put things into motion that led to him leaving. i actually think by ending up with crisp red soxs will be glad they didnt choose to overpay but the point remains that this stat is never going to be anything but an ideal situation for the top free agents. if i was the cubs management of course i would love to make the deal you are talking about. however, we all know that for 90 plus percent of these situations the player actually has the upper hand.