2007 MLB Free Agents: Andy Pettitte

New York papers are abuzz with Andy Pettitte talk, so I thought I'd get in on the act.  Pettitte opened up to reporters yesterday, saying that retirement after the 2006 season is an option if his elbow can't handle any more.

Pettitte turns 34 this June and will make $17.5MM this season in the last year of his backloaded three-year contract.  One article mentioned that before the 2004 season, Pettitte asked his agent to limit the contract to three years.  Given that obvious uncertainty and Pettitte's desire to be with his family, retirement is entirely feasible even with the lefty on top of his game.

Yankees fans, of course, would love Pettitte to return to his old stomping grounds.  The team could use another mercenary ace starter, whether it be midseason or for 2007.  If it was a one-year contract for 2007, Pettitte could probably find a team to come close to the record $18MM Roger Clemens received last year with Houston. 

Here's the issue with any major Yankees trade:  if they want to acquire a star player, they have a very limited set of players to deal.  Off the top of my head, Philip Hughes, Robinson Cano, and maybe Matt DeSalvo (though he's 25 now).  Why would the Astros surrender Pettitte for anything less? (And don't try to sell me on Eric Duncan's performance in the AFL or something). Same goes for Barry Zito, Doug Davis, or whatever other reinforcements the Yankees might pursue if Johnson/Mussina/Chacon/Wang/Pavano doesn't hold up (and it'd be a miracle if those five held up).  Jaret Wright is a joke, Aaron Small a fluke.  I think the Yanks will be in the market for a starter this summer and Hughes will have to go. 

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Comments

[Kyle]

Why would the Yankees trade Hughes when he will most likely be ready to start full time in 2007. The Yankees have plenty of depth that it would take a slew of injuries before they start trading. And if they do need a pitcher I would think they would go for one of the cheaper variety(ala Chacon, May Leiter)

[RumorMonger]

I don't know if lightning is going to strike twice with cheap fill-in starters winning tons of games with low ERAs. I wouldn't trade Hughes if I was running a team, but the Yankees aren't a normal team and Hughes probably can't help this year yet.

[Darin]

I don't see the Astros selling on Pettite. No matter what. They didn't sell last year on Clemens, and have notoriously been buyers, not sellers.

Furthermore, the Yankees would have to find a third team to get involved, as they don't seem to have anything the Astros would want (maybe Matsui).

I can see Pettite going into free agency, but he could resign with the 'Stros as he's been noted as being rather happy in Houston. And Drayton's been spending money the past few years, so who knows. I don't think it's a lock that he'd go back to the Yankees, after they bascially gave up on him.

[Erik]

We can't trade Hughes because all Yankee fans know injury-prone pitching prospects are as volatile as nitroglycerine.

[Ed]

Let's see what Hughes does above A ball before they start making room in monument park for him. Typical Yankee prospect...juice him up until everyone thinks he's the second coming of Ruth/Ford, trade him at the deadline and then he never pans out. Happens millions of times.

[Erik]

And don't try to sell me on Eric Duncan's performance in the AFL or something

You do realize that on several Yankee blogs, there are suggestions Duncan will replace Giambi.

[RumorMonger]

Yikes...I can't imagine that happening...

[Erik]

In a few years, when Duncan is 24, not now, silly.

[Teetz]

Robinson Cano for Greg Maddux in July if the Cubs are out of it. Would Maddux agree to that? Would the Yankees?

[RumorMonger]

Mad Dog probably, Yanks no.

[Darin]

Hasn't the Yankees received better offers for Cano than Maddux? And don't the Cubs need all "healthy" pitching they can get, regardless of their standing. Lastly, do the Cubs need another second baseman?

[Nick]

I think the Red Sox would make a push to sign Pettite remember when he was a free-agent after the 2003 season the Red Sox made a 4-year offer worth 54 million.They will try again if he is healthy.

[Darin]

not for 4 years. he doesn't even know if he'll pitch past this year. I'm figuring where ever he goes he'll look for 2 to 3 years, at 12-14mil per. the 3rd year could be a player option. and it will probably be his last contract.

I still say the 'stros have the inside track on resigning him (if they want him), as he obviously doesn't need the money, and he doesn't have much to prove anymore. If the astros want to resign him, they will make comprable offers to NY/Boston, and money goes much farther in Houston.

[Erik]

If the Astros could get Zito, it would be a far better investment.

[steven]

there is no way the yankees aquire petitte during the season unless cano craps out and they decide to try and trade him. i doubt he will tank bad enough and they arent going to deal hughes. i would agree with monger in that it wouldnt shock me if the yankees had a lot of injuries and made another shortsighted move just beacause thats waht the yankees do and steinbrenner seems a little crazier than usual this year. at the same time if a key part of their pitching staff gets injured i doubt they can justify the trade for petitte cause it still wouldnt be enough for a title.

[Darin]

The Astros have no use for Cano or Eric Duncan. Phillip Hughes maybe, but they'd want a major league ready stick to play SS, outfield or catch.

[Erik]

"but they'd want a major league ready stick to play SS, outfield or catch"
Are we talking Alex Cora-level talent here? No contending team is trading a quality starting position player unless they have an excess at the position.

At 8M for half a season, that's still a spicy meatball for a mid-market team. If the Angels come knocking and offer Wood or Kendrick, you would refuse?

There is a reason none of us are GM's.

[Darin]

"No contending team is trading a quality starting position player unless they have an excess at the position."

tell me in the past 10 years when the Astros traded a elite player for prospects

[Erik]

But if you look at most contending teams that can absorb AP's salary and have ML-ready players to trade at those positions, all you'll find is Ryan Langerhans, Victor Diaz, and not much better.

The kind of impact player Houston is looking for might not be available. The only one I can think of is Bobby Abreu, but there are contractual issues that could preclude such a deal.

Also, you are assuming Clemens will return. If he doesn't, you can't trade your second best pitcher for a OF with a massive salary. Purpura will have some difficult decisions to make come the trade deadline.

[Nick]

I wasnt saying the Red Sox would offer a 4 year deal again,but i was saying the sox had a great interest in 03 and probaly will again.

[Davios]

"And don't try to sell me on Eric Duncan's performance in the AFL or something"

Pretty arrogant for a guy who is trying to spin off Soriano for Griffey rumors.

[Thomas]

Trading Cano is the most ridiculous statement.

he is going NO WHERE

absolutely no where.

this kid will be an all-star many years.

Erik,
I understand your point, but I just can't see the Astros selling, even if they are 15 games out at the All Star break. They could, but they have a history of holding onto players. If they were to trade Pettite, they'd look for a king's ransom in return.

Nick,
I know your weren't saying the red sox would look to give 4 years to Pettite, I was just throwing that out there. I think Pettite will look to go the Nolan Ryan route, Houston or the Rangers, depending on if Houston is willing to resign him.

"Pretty arrogant for a guy who is trying to spin off Soriano for Griffey rumors."

First, the two have nothing to with each other, second you may have noticed I quoted El Nuevo Dia. I guess if it was an American paper it wouldn't be spinning off right?

[Devin]

Hughes will be delt by the Yankee's at some point. Steinbrenner has a Fetish with futre hall of famors or just proven Vets for pitchers. Not very often do the yanks let pitchers go through their system no matter how good they are expected to be "Mark Prior" a solid example.

Greg Maddux is a solid example of the type Steinbranner would go for altho I tend to agree it wouldn't be Cano or Hughes. Pettitte I think is a real possiblity, and Hughes I don't think is out of the question there.

[Kyle]

Hughes is not getting traded as long as Cashman has a contract. Nor is Cano or Wang. If you want to look at Yankee prospects who will probably get traded look at Sean Henn, Eric Duncan, Melky Cabrera. The Yankees dont need another aging pitcher and Cashman knows that. That is why they signed Pavano and Wright. You guys keep saying that the Yankees like to sign/trade for aging HOF type pitchers. Other than Randy Johnson when have they done that. Most of the pitchers they have signed were at a very reasonable age when they signed them:
Mussina-32
Clemens-36(He was pretty old but definately had a lot left)
Jeff Weaver-25
Carl Pavano-29
Jaret Wright-29
Jose Contreras-31
David Wells-34 and again at 39

The only guys the Yankees have gotten in the Steinbrenner period who were old were Randy Johnson, Wells the second time, and Kevin Brown. And Brown they got just to try and salvage something out of Jeff Weaver.

At the trading deadline the Yankees wont be trading for a starter and you can hold me to that. Mussina and Johnson are both healthy this spring, and Chacon and Wang have looked good as well. They have a lot of options for that fifth spot in Wright, Small, Pavano, Leiter, Erickson, Henn, DeSalvo, Proctor. I admit some of those options arent that alluring but the Yankees would have to blow through all those pitcher before they trade for a pitcher

[FredUD]

No way the Astros are selling Andy unless he asks to be traded. I see him resigning with Houston in the offseason anyway.

IF...and that's a big IF...Houston falls out of the race AND Andy asks for a trade, the cost will be steep. I wouldn't put it past Houston to throw something like Lidge, Andy & Lamb for ARod & Henn.

NYY would probably laugh, but unless HOU can get something that helps them in the future, don't expect them to trade. HOU has a strong low-mid level farm system with some arms at the top. What they need is help at SS and SP. If you're asking for an SP, you're going to have to overpay.

[Kyle]

The Yankees would laugh because that trade is absolutely rediculous. ARod is the best player in baseball. Andy is a good pitcher but he is in his last year or two and the yankees have a closer already who is better than lidge. Henn and Lamb are both pretty useless

[Erik]

"I understand your point, but I just can't see the Astros selling, even if they are 15 games out at the All Star break. They could, but they have a history of holding onto players. If they were to trade Pettite, they'd look for a king's ransom in return."

But then the Astros would have to pay all 17M and would get nothing but picks back, assuming they offered arbitration.

At any rate, I agree with you, that, in the end, AP won't be traded at all.

[FredUD]

Kyle- It's not "rediculuous" (just a pet peave of mine that people use too strong of words). Lopsided, yes. But when you're asking for a Player that the team believes it can retain as a #1 type starter in a rotation that NEEDS premium starting pitching, they are going to ask for the moon to move them.

Think about it this way. What would the Braves ask for in return if somebody wanted Chipper Jones? Atlanta doesn't have many big bats in the lineup right now and don't have anyone behind Chipper at 3B. They aren't going to ask market value for a 3B with Chipper's production...they'll ask for much more.

[Kyle]

Yes I realize that and that is why he wont be traded. But Pettite isnt a #1 he is a #2 or #3 with at best 3 years left although most likely he retires after this year or plays one more. Alex Rodriguez is the player in all of baseball and is the best third baseman. So you would be basically trading the #1 player in baseball for maybe two top 100 guys. That doesnt happen. For a team to acquire A-Rod (which will never happen) it will take another player in the top 10 and an elite prospect. That is why players of his caliber rarely get traded.

If the Yankees wanted Pettite. I feel like a more realistic trade coule be Sheffield for Pettite and Dan Wheeler

[Kyle]

Yes I realize that and that is why he wont be traded. But Pettite isnt a #1 he is a #2 or #3 with at best 3 years left although most likely he retires after this year or plays one more. Alex Rodriguez is the player in all of baseball and is the best third baseman. So you would be basically trading the #1 player in baseball for maybe two top 100 guys. That doesnt happen. For a team to acquire A-Rod (which will never happen) it will take another player in the top 10 and an elite prospect. That is why players of his caliber rarely get traded.

If the Yankees wanted Pettite. I feel like a more realistic trade coule be Sheffield for Pettite and Dan Wheeler

[Erik]

You want GARY SHEFFIELD?

Do you have any idea of the implications? It's frightening just to think about. When the rumored Mike Cameron for Gary Sheffield trade was leaked, you should have read the papers. If you did, you would NEVER want him on your team. No hyperbole.

[Kyle]

I am a Yankees fan I realize what a pain Sheffield can be.

Pettite wont be traded he will most likely have a good year this year and then retire

[FredUD]

Andy isn't a #3. He's a #2 with #1 upside in any specific year. The trade offer I listed included Lidge, who inaguably is one of the elite closers in the game (Rivera, Lidge, FRod & Gagne). He's also very cheap for that caliber of player right now and under club control for 3 more years. That's not a shabby place to start.

Don't forget ARod was essentially traded for Soriano, who many people that observe Sabermetrics and periphs knew was on the verge of heavy decline while getting very expensive.

Again, I'm not saying it's a fair trade, but if you're asking a team to give up something they can't replace, it will cost more than market value.