Friday Morning Reading

Expect a lack of trade rumors, fantasy advice, and email replies this weekend - I'm moving on Saturday.  Good times. 

Anyway, I thought I'd throw you some quick Friday morning reading:

Read The Danger of Closers at RotoAuthority.  I promise that it applies to real baseball too.

I posted the Cubs projections from my Fantasy Baseball Guide.  Do you agree with them?

Viva El Birdos pleads for the Cardinals to just let Anthony Reyes pitch already.

The definitive word on the Bonds saga at Sportszilla.

I love this book. Kept me up all night.

Comments

[Kyle]

Ill post my critique of you Cubs projections here since I dont feel like registering right now. But I think you are being a bit optimistic. Maddux's ERA wont be that low and I dont think Wood and Miller can give the cubs that many innings but Ill allow it you gotta show some bias for your team. Good luck with the move

[RumorMonger]

Couple things on those projections - they're based more on independent looks at the players than on the team as a whole. So if Wood reaches his IP projection, Rusch, Williams, and Miller get fewer wins. The Cubs are not a 94 win team.

I didn't guess at Maddux's ERA - I projected it based on his peripherals. BP has him at 3.92 by comparison. There is absolutely no bias in any of the numbers.

[Andy]

It looks like you have them winning 94 games with a staff ERA around 3.70. Are you projecting that they are somehow going to materialize hitters that can accomplish this? A 3.70 staff ERA with the Cubs current lineup gets them at most 85 wins, and that's being generous.

[RumorMonger]

First off, did you read my comment above?

Second, are you getting 3.70 by adding all of the ERAs up and then dividing by the number of pitchers? Because that's faulty math.

[Kyle]

You make a good point Rumor. I cant argue with your approach I just dont see him doing it.
And to Andy it seems like the Cubs offense wont be that huge of an issue. Pierre is a fantastic lead off hitter. Either Murton or Walker or Hairston could make a good #2 as they all have good OBP's. Ramirez and Lee can both crush the ball. Jones isnt great but he is a solid fielder and will hit around 20 home runs with a mediocre average. Barret is a solid catcher. Cedeno I know nothing about but if he can field very well and give you a .270 average than that is great. The Cubs arent a great team but if they can keep there pitching healthy and figure out the bullpen they could be very good. Prior and Zambrano when healthy are both top 10 in the NL pitchers and Wood is not far behind. The Cubs just need health

[Randy]

What's the point of making projections if you don't think they are realistic?

Either you are saying the cubs win 94 games or you are not - then change your projections.

[RumorMonger]

I do think they are realistic, but I am not attempting to project the team's overall performance, just individual. No one accurately projects wins, so I don't know why some of you are fixating on that. I don't know who's getting hurt, who will have bad luck, and who will be traded for.

Just look at the ERA, WHIP, and Ks. The rest is not controlled by the pitcher.

[cubbiechris]

I think that is very fair on the projection of the Cubs pitchers. I think Maddux will have a huge comeback year and win 15 again. He looks in great shape.

[Randy]

If the cubs have 3 picthers throw over 200 innings, I'll eat my computer.

They've done it twice in the last 13 years - 98 and 03.

[Randy]

Also, I realize that you don't KNOW who will get hurt, have bad luck etc.

If you did know, then you would have a crystal ball.

But,doesn't predicting an outcome mean taking these issues into account ?

I'm projecting that it will take me 10 minutes to get to work today because once I did in that time.

Usually it takes me 15-20 but since I don't KNOW whether there will be any traffic, accidents etc. , I'll project that it will take 10 minutes.

94 wins for the cubs ? Thst's funny.

[Kyle]

Randy what Rumor is saying is that you cant add up the wins because he isnt projecting those guys as a pitching staff he is projecting them each independently.

[Randy]

Do they pitch independently or as a pitching staff ?

[RumorMonger]

Thanks Kyle, that's correct.

Randy, you are basically saying you will eat your computer if Mark Prior pitches 200 innings. He's only done it once, so it's an OK gamble on your part...but I am going to hold you to it.

[RumorMonger]

They pitch independently. In baseball, only one pitcher is allowed on the mound at a time and he controls certain aspects of his performance.

[Randy]

No. They pitch as a staff. When one is throwing innings, the others are not - thus their statistics are affected.

[RumorMonger]

Fantastic. Make sure your projection system balances out and I'll do mine my way.

[Kyle]

Randy just dont look at the wins projections are really useful for the other stats whip, ERA, and k's. Wins are a factor of the offense as much as pitching. If Rumor or anyone could accurately predict how many wins a staff was going to get before the season they would have very high paying jobs

[Randy]

We have different agendas and I'll leave it at that.

I actually do make money by predicting win totals.

Anyway, Rumor, you can hold me to that. But, what's your concession if you're wrong ?

By the way, Zambrano and Maddux are not locks.

[Erik]

Zambrano is dangerous... he's been nothing but abused by Dusty Baker, rubber arm or not.

[RumorMonger]

Reaaaaaally...are you a handicapper or something Randy? My next project is going to be in the gambling realm somewhat.

As far as my concession, I plan on documenting the hits and misses of my projections, so I'll hold myself accountable. But I'm not eating anything weird.

[huizinga]

I believe that this is the definitve word on the Bonds saga:

http://mchammer.blogspot.com/2006/03/barry-bonds_09.html

[azruavatar]

I'm surprised you post Eyre with a lower ERA than Howry who has been very good for two years. Eyre had a fluke year last year statistically and I would very much expect his ERA over 3.5 before Howry's. They have a full run difference in career ERA but suddenly Eyre is going to be better?

You really think Rusch is gonna get 180+ innings? At some point during the season he will probably be reelegated to the bullpen. 180 seems awfully high. I'd think somewhere between 120-140.

Williams pitches a career high in innings even though he could find his way to the bullpen as well.

I also think that this might be the year that Zambrano feels the effects of Dusty Baker. Those elbow problems he attributed to computer use or some other nonsense last year were awfully mysterious. But that is pure speculation on my part.

I have to agree with Randy in that you seem to be evaluating these pitchers in a vacuum and you just can't do that and have your projections be realistic. It's like me projecting that Reyes and Ponson will make 30 starts for the cardinals this season. In a vacuum either could, but on the team probably neither will.

[Randy]

and Maddux is 40 years old and Prior is Prior and the cubs are the cubs.....never bet on the cubs

[Randy]

I'm no handicapper but I have done quite a bit of baseball wagering over the years in various forms and....I've done ok.

[RumorMonger]

Taking the under on the Yankees win total always seems to work. At least last year and probably this. And under on the Cards this year.

[Teetz]

Maddux's era will be helped by the improved bullpen and established roles.

[Randy]

I've seen so many different numbers - whose do you use ?

[Allan]

Personally, I think projecting Maddux to win more than 12 and have an ERA under 4.00 is quite generous. His ERA has been climbing for the last 4 years, and--despite what Clemens has done--the age related decline will continue. His WHIP, K/BF and K/BB rate have been pretty consistent, and yet his ERA has still continued to rise. That says to me that he isn't fooling as many people as he once did, and they're centering the ball better. Considering his AVG, SLG, and OBP against, P/IP and H/9 are all increasing, I'd have a really hard time believing he'll snap back to an earlier level of production.

Both Eyre and Howry will suffer in their first year at Wrigley. I would be tremendously surprised if Prior made 30+ starts. Overall, the projections look to be firmly on the optimistic side.

[Randy]

I don't want to be accused of cub bashing but this is what I foresee:

I think that the cubs bullpen will be better than last year. A lot of bums are gone and they have legitimate arms there. Howry, Dempster,Eyre and Williamson are good. Rusch is a good swingman.

Prior won't make all of his starts - probably about 25. Maddux should continue his downward decline. Zambrano,if healthy, should be outstanding - could win 18+. Wood I count on for nothing. I would rather count on Wade Miller - he might surprise. J.Williams is average.

The offense should be slightly improved.

I see the cubs being right around .500. I say 83 wins.

[RumorMonger]

Allan:

Maddux's projections:

9.45 H/9
1.4 BB/9
1.2 HR/9

So a slight improvement in baserunners and more HRs. Plugged into Bill James's component ERA formula to get 3.84. A lot of the variation in an ERA is luck.

[RumorMonger]

I forgot...BetRoyal and Bodog I think...

[Allan]

"A lot of the variation in an ERA is luck."

So his luck is getting worse each year, or is he simply not fooling as many batters as he used to.

Either way, to suggest his ERA will reverse trend at his age, just doesn't make sense. He's not Barry Bonds with his magic pills.

[Randy]

Yes, Monger, I agree on the Yanks being high at 97.5.

I think the Cards are about right - 93.5.

I often win betting the over on the Sox as I will this year - 91.5. They've averaged 87 over the last 6 years and this is clearly their best team.

Take the under on :
Mets -91.5
Royals - 64
Marlins - 65
Braves - 88.5

Take the over on:
Indians - 90.5
Angels -88
A's - 89.5

[Tim Dierkes]

I really think the Cardinals will not win 94 games. I like the As and Indians picks there but I'm not so sure about the Angels.

[Randy]

Tim, look at how weak that division is. Heck, look at the whole NL league.

Patsies - Reds,Pirates,Rockies,Marlins and Dbacks

Average(around .500) - Brewers,Astros,Cubs,Pads,Gaints,Dodgers,Phils and Nats.

Good,maybe ? - Mets and Braves

[Erik]

Mets win at least 90, even IF Pedro goes down. Quote me.

They underperformed the pythag by 7 wins last year (89 wins), without Delgado and Wagner.

[scatterbrian]

I'm sorry, but this is the definitive word on Barry Bonds:

http://mchammer.blogspot.com/2006/03/barry-bonds_09.html

[James]

Zambrano came into camp in the best shape of his career-i don't see this being the year he breaks down, I expect 18+ wins from him w/ an ERA under 3.25

Maddux has been getting worse but he specifically said this offseason he took further steps to improve because he didn't like how poorly he started last year-and from what I can remember-he started BAD...so while I think the ERA might be up around 4 I don't think it'll vary too much above that-and the 15 wins i think will return

A much improved bullpen will increase wins for maddux, Zambrano(especially) and prior, so i don't see how Dempster can only get 32 saves for a team that has that many good starters, i think he'll grab around 40 and hopefully convert a GOOD %

I'm personally hoping this year Williams figures it out and comes to his potential, but if not i think Wood and Miller will return in May looking good. Remember it's Wood's contract year and he will be pitching for the $$$.

My personal prediction has the Cubs around 90 wins, but I can't predict much to a point because we have no clue how this offense will come out with Pierre, Jones, Murton, Cedeno and the 2B turntable so uncertain.

[The Joe]

Actually, the definitive word was in the response section from 'ramblingman'. He pretty effectively dismantles the argument.

Think the Cards fans are frustrated about Reyes? How about Francisco Liriano having to wait for a Kyle Lohse implosion in Minnesota? You'd think 6 K's in 2 2/3 innings in the WBC would do the trick.

Cubs projections are a little to optimistic. But, then again, we are talking about Cub fans:)

[Justin]

Let me start by saying that I am a Cubs fan whose heart has been ripped out following 2003. This projection looks optimistic. I think either Prior or Big Z will win 16-18 games, but not both. Regarding Wood, If he wins 9, most will be with another team after the trade deadline (the Cubs will be looking for a taker for this bad contract). I think Maddux will win < 10 games in 2006. Overall, this is a very average team with below average rotation and offense. The Cubs will finish in 3rd with 75 wins. This year will spell the end of Hendry and Baker - Thank God.

[junbun]

wood won't be traded at the deadline... not only does he have a no trade clause but if he is pitching well enough for any teams to want him the cubs will simply keep him since he is a free agent at the end of the season.

[Kyle]

I dont really agree with your logic junbun. At the trading deadline there is a good chance the Cubs may be out of contention. Since Wood is a free agent after this year they may trade him to a contender to try and salvage some value.

i realy wouldnt be surprised if the cubs traded one of their pitchers to say the rangers for say one of the ubundance of outfielders.... maybe im crazy but i dont think that murton fits the role for the cubs at the moment.. they neeed a power guy to hit behind Ramierez and D-Lee.. or they could trade Scott Williamson to Atlanta for idk what management will think of somthing

[Erik]

The Cubs fans season just flashed before their eyes.

D-Lee just came up grabbing his wrist after diving for a pop-up against Japan.

[Cubbies in my stove]

Thank you that someone finally realizes that Barry Bonds is one of the greatest baseball players of all time. Yes, he is an egotistical piece of crap who essentially cheated. (according to the MLB rules he wasn't a cheater, but as far as the US Government is concerned, he did; last I checked baseball was "The sport of America".) But even before he was pumping himself full of *ahem*, flax-seed oil, the guy was one of the most complete players in baseball. Just look at Bonds' career line pre-2000:

In 14 seasons Barry batted .288 with 445 HRS and 460 SB and 1299 RBIs. Averaging that out that comes to a season of .288/32HR/32SB/93RBI season. And those RBI totals are deflated by his days as a 7 and 2 hitter early in his career with the Pirates.

So, there are lots of sports analists debating whether or not BB Jr. should join his daddy in Cooperstown. Most of it is centered around the last 5 years of his career while ignoring the previous 14. They are completely aburd, I mean, c'mon Woody Paige (along with the rest of you fools out there) What the hell kind of player who averages a 30-30 for his career along with 90+ RBIs isn't a first ballot hall of famer??

[James]

Anonymous at 11:41, you're crazy...there is no lineup in baseball who couldn't use what Murton can bring to the table offensively...we don't know how his power will flourish but a possible .300 avg with a great eye and good opposite field swing is a necessity in any lineup

[Cubbies in my stove]

P.S. The comment comes from the article written at sportszilla. I kind of ignored the Cubs dialogue that this has turned into. (I think Monger created allcubs.com because he got sick of everything being painted blue around here)

[Erik]

*there is no lineup in baseball who couldn't use what Murton can bring to the table offensively*

Yankees

Cano bats ninth and is a .300 hitter.

[rayoftruth]

Yes, LaRussa, LET REYES PITCH! I know you don't like rookies, but he's better than Ponson ever will be!

[Cubbies in my stove]

Can we please stop this big red bird circle jerk!!!
Its pretty annoying to have to put up with abunch of red necks...let alone ones' without pants! Cardinal fans don't even realize that their team is no longer the power house it once was....How Sad!

[Justin]

Re: the projections:

94 wins with an april rotation of...

Big Z
Maddux
Rusch
Williams
?????

April looks like at most 10 wins without Prior, Wood and Miller (be realistic guys - we have seen this before from Wood and Prior - they will not be ready until at least May). Rusch and Williams have been dogmeat this spring.

That would mean they would have to go 84-54 the remainder of the season. Assuming they have a May 1 rotation of...

Big Z
Prior
Maddux
Wood
Rusch (possible Miller in mid June)

Big Z looks unstoppable this spring (looks like 18-22 wins).

Maddux has worked hard over the off season, but we all remember what he did in 2005 for $9 million (8-11 wins).

Prior for 5 months (15 wins).

Wood for 4-5 months if he doesn't re-injur himself with his crazy mechanics (8-10 wins).

Rusch / Miller 3 months of Rusch (5-7 wins), 3 months of Miller (7-9 wins).

To my math that makes 61-74 wins plus the bullpen (11 wins projected by this website) = 72-85 wins

These numbers = Johnny B Baker and Jim Hendry Outy - Thank God!