Rosenthal On Willis Trade Possibility

We were all a bit skeptical of the idea of the Marlins trading their best pitcher, 24 year-old southpaw Dontrelle Willis.  But I have to say, Ken Rosenthal's article yesterday makes a Willis trade sound like a very legitimate possibility.  Read up.

Rosenthal mentions Felix Pie, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Jon Lester as possible starting points for their respective teams.  An offer starting with Lester and Dustin Pedroia would have to get the Marlins listening.  An acquisition of Willis would give the team three former Marlins in the rotation. 

Then there's always Lastings Milledge, Omar Minaya's last bullet.  The Dodgers and Angels also have an overflow of young talent should either team decide they are one starting pitcher away from the playoffs.

Scary factoid:  Willis's top comparable, according to Baseball Prospectus?  Steve Avery, circa 1994.  Back in '94, Avery was a 24 year-old southpaw coming off a brilliant 18 win, 2.94 ERA season.  Avery never posted an ERA below 4 again.  On the plus side, the 2003 version of Mark Buehrle is next on the list.

Comments

[TheRealErik]

The Marlins can't possibly be stupid enough to trade Willis in division.

I say the Angels have the greatest chance of nabbing D-Train. They certainly have the prospects...

[desturbd1]

If all Boston had to do to catch the Marlins' interest is start with Lester and Pedroia, then there is a slight possibility something could be there. This spring Jed Lowry impressed a lot of people, is a year younger then Pedroia, and still has the potential to hit for power. Again, I'm not sure there's any truth to the rumor, but it doesn't seem totally outside the realm of possibility. That being said, as a Sox fan, if it took much more then Lester and Pedroia to get him, I wouldn't want to do it.

[andreweac]

Doubtful the Angels would pursue Willis.

Colon - signed through 2007
Lackey - FA after 2008
Santana - FA after 2011

Jeff Weaver and Escobar are FA after this year, yet I presume that the younger Weaver will take over his brother's spot in the rotation.

Considering that to obtain Willis would take a package of either younger Weaver or Santana plus a top position prospect I doubt Stoneman pulls the trigger, not his MO.

More likely the team resigns Escobar, or goes after Mulder, Zito, Pettite or another FA, where LAA would not have to sacrifice any prospects.

[jballgame]

Cubs need to get it done--not sure what else it will take with Pie, but their staff is pretty bad--Rusch sucks based on his first two outings. I'd love to see Z, Willis, Wood, Prior and Maddux. WOW!

[Teetz]

Pie is going to be a good player, maybe great...but realistically, unless they trade Jacque Jones there doesn't seem to be a spot opening up for him in the near future.

[jballgame]

Do you think Pie + Dopirak/Sing + Hill/Koronka/Guzman/Marshall would do it?

[BIG Z=Cy Young]

To get Willis, we would have to trade off Marshall, and Pie. Marshall value has increased due to his impressive gain in pitching in jus one month. Guzman's value is a lil low due to the injury stints he duffered the past two years. However, Marlins will not trade off Willis, I can guarantee you that.

[walkoffblast]

If red sox find out steve avery is his most comparable player it might be enough to keep the trade from happening.

[bobo]

"I'd love to see Z, Willis, Wood, Prior and Maddux. WOW!"

Shouldn't be too difficult. Just visit some Chicago area operating rooms.

The 4 of them ending up sharing a hospital room seems more likely than Prior and Wood being healthy at the same time.

[Kyle]

What would you say the Red Sox would have to give for Willis. Would just Lester and Pedroia get it done or would they need to throw in some other prospects

[scatterbrian]

Where are you Billy Beane?

Trade Zito for whatever prospects you can find, then spin them plus an existing prospect for Willis.

[astrosfan]

"Trade Zito for whatever prospects you can find, then spin them plus an existing prospect for Willis."

That may not be too far away from the truth, but it remains to be see if the A's need a hitter or starter more in return for Zito.

Back to the Astros, owner Drayton McLane is well aware what is going on with Clemens, and if Roger thinks he's going to get a near $20 mil/year offer just by bumming around with rival teams for his services, he's dead wrong.

I can see the Astros offering at most 10 mil for 4+ months (starting in June) and if Rocket wants to break the bank one more time, they'll look elsewhere for a starter.

[jballgame]

Bobo--thanks for your Cub-hating comments. Too bad you can't count--I mentioned 5 pitchers, not four, and only 2 have injuries.

Astrosfan--wrong post--Clemens discussion is elsewhere. Go find it.

If it took Pie/Marshall, I'd do it in a second if I were Hendry.

Rumor--what are the chance (percentages) of Willis being traded in your estimation?

[RotoAuthority]

Before season's end? 40%. Before spring training 2007? 70%. My best guess.

[MZink]

"I'd love to see Z, Willis, Wood, Prior and Maddux. WOW!"

What about Miller???? Would the Cubs use a 6 man rotation in your senerio. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Willis is Cubbie Blue again, but it would be difficult with an already overflowing Cub's pitching staff.