Who Has The Goods And Need For Zito?

Billy Beane's nondenial coupled with Jon Heyman's rumor from a couple of days ago got me thinking some more about Barry Zito.  Said Heyman:

"If Zito makes it to free agency, a friend of Zito's said he believes the Mets and Yankees are co-favorites to sign him."

That's certainly logical.  Heyman also mentioned that Beane wants three younger, cheaper players for Zito if a trade is to take place.  That's certainly been his requirement in the past.  What I'm wondering is: which contenders meet the minimum requirement of stud prospects and young guns?

I'll use Baseball America's Top 50 as a guide for requirement #1: stud prospect.  See Daric Barton (#32 in 2005, #28 this year) and Dan Meyer (yes, I know Meyer didn't pan out so far but he was ranked #43 in 2005).  Which contenders even have a top 50 type guy?

Well, there's the Angels.  They've got Brandon Wood, Howie Kendrick, and Erick Aybar in the top 50.  Aybar could be a longshot, but even that is doubtful.

Then there's Minnesota, with Francisco Liriano.  There's no way in hell he's traded.

The Dodgers have Chad Billingsley, Andy LaRoche, Joel Guzman, and Russell Martin.  They're stacked.

The Tigers have Justin Verlander, Cameron Maybin, and Joel Zumaya.  Zumaya was in a Javier Vazquez rumor this winter along with Curtis Granderson...for Tigers fans' sake I hope that discussion never even occurred.

The Tribe boasts Andy Marte and Adam Miller.  The Mets have Lastings Milledge and Mike Pelfrey.  The Giants have Matt Cain.  The BrewCrew has Prince Fielder, Mark Rogers, and Ryan Braun.

The Braves have Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  The Red Sox have Jon Lester and Jon Papelbon.  The White Sox have Bobby Jenks.  The Cubs have Felix Pie.  The Yanks have Philip Hughes.  The Cards have Anthony Reyes.  The Blue Jays have Dustin McGowan.

15 contenders with at least one top 50 prospect.  We can cross the Twins and Giants off the list - those pitchers aren't getting traded.  That leaves 13 clubs.  Which of these have a need for a starting pitcher?  (I'm going to eliminate teams that don't need Zito, though it's not unprecedented for a club to trade for a starter they don't need.)

The Dodger rotation is five-deep, and I think it'll be fine.  Plus, Billingsley is the sixth man.  The Angels are also set right now.  The Tigers are the same way, with Zumaya ready to step in.  Cleveland doesn't have the need, and the Brewers are fine.  The White Sox and Blue Jays appear to be covered as well. 

So here are the teams that need a guy like Zito and have a top 50 prospect:  Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Mets, and Cardinals.  Let's take a closer look at these six.

Braves - They're going with Smoltz, Hudson, Davies, Sosa, and Thomson as their front five.  They have at least two backups in Horacio Ramirez and Chuck James.  Atlanta was shopping Thomson recently, so I'd take that as a sign that they're willing to look within if their starting pitching fails them (and I think it will).  While the team has shown a willingness to trade top prospects in the past, they seem like the least likely suitor for Zito.

Cubs - The Cubs have something resembling starting pitching depth, but have learned the folly of counting on Prior and Wood to save their season.  With Pie and young arms like Rich Hill and Angel Guzman, the Cubs have the goods and perhaps the desire to acquire Zito.

Cardinals - They have a ton of impending free agents in their starting rotation, so a trade-and-sign could make sense here.  Anthony Reyes and Adam Wainwright make for an intriguing starting point.  A failure by Ponson and a strange unwillingness to turn to Reyes could mean Walt Jocketty gets involved.

Red Sox - Ah, yes.  So they want to keep Papelbon at closer and can't get anything out of David Wells?  And they want to keep Zito off the Yankees at least until 2007?  The fit is clear.  Lester and Dustin Pedroia would spark Beane's interest for sure.

Yankees - They're going to trade for a starting pitcher; it's only a matter of how soon.  I outlined the four trade candidates in my Torii Hunter post.

Mets - As you know, it's all about Milledge.  Why would Beane do this for anything less?  He holds the cards.  If there's no Milledge, I have to think there's no deal.  You can only pump up Brian Bannister's value so much.

My prediction: Zito goes to the Yankees at the deadline.  But it's got to be one of these six teams, right?

Comments

[scatterbrian]

What are the Yankees going to offer Oakland? Hughes and Tabata won't get it done, and I don't see Beane asking for Cano. They like Ellis, and Cano's defense is crummy at best.

I still think Beane should spin whatever he can get for Zito to Florida and get Willis.

[RotoAuthority]

Why not snag Hughes, Tabata, and Cano and spin Cano elsewhere?

[EM3]

I don't see Beane trading Zito to the Yankees if the A's are competitive, which they will be. My bet is on the Mets.

This three way with the Mets and Marlins makes a lot of sense:
http://thesportsfan.tv/?p=188

Dontrelle for Zito would definitely get Beane's attention. And Florida would again get loaded.

[registereduser]

There is NO WAY the Cardinals are interested in Zito. This is poor speculation. The Cardinals are more likely to trade away a starting pitcher at the deadline. With 4 pending free agents on their staff they will need to keep Reyes and Wainright to fill 2 of those spots and then sign two of their current four free agents round out the staff for 2007.

The likely trade for the cardinals will be shipping away Marquis or Suppan in exchage for an outfielder at the deadline.

Zito is not even on the radar.

[TheRealErik]

"Dontrelle for Zito would definitely get Beane's attention"
Worst trade proposal EVER.

Zito's about 99.9% certain to be a Free Agent. Why would any team with a brain trade away a stud for a very overrated pitcher? Check the numbers. He's not worth three young players. No way. No how. Period.

I think Billy Boy will be thrilled if he can just get picks for the guy. He won't be trading him for nothing, that's for sure.

[RotoAuthority]

I think it is poor speculation to rule them out given that they attempted to bring in both A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez this winter and came up empty.

[bobo]

RotoAuthority/RumorMonger: PLEASE stop posting stuff like this. It seems too much like stuff ML teams would actually do and I'm afraid someone at the Yankees might read this and get the idea that trading for Zito would be a good idea...

[bobo]

"Why not snag Hughes, Tabata, and Cano and spin Cano elsewhere?"

My god, if we did this, I'd campaign for Jim Duquette to take Cashman's job.

[scatterbrian]

You're right, Beane could spin Cano in another trade.

I know Zito can be overrated, but that doesn't mean he sucks. Besides, he's 28, he's not done.

[xaseq]

What about the Phillies? They have chips in Cole Hamels, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson, Gio Gonzalez, Daniel Haigwood, and Scott Mathieson. Gillick isn't Ed Wade, he doesn't have an emotional attachment to any these guys.

[xaseq]

Why does it have to be a contender that gets Zito? Tampa Bay needs to rid themselves of an outfielder and they have a deep minor league system to put together an attractive package.

[Astro Fan in NYC]

How can you possibly not consider the Astros taking on Zito? If Rocket doesn't come back, I think they would make a serious run for him. Houston has a history of hiring guns for October. We have a lot of young talent an Zito would be a good fit for Houston.

[RotoAuthority]

Who's the top flight prospect going to be from Houston? I don't feel that Hunter Pence and/or Jason Hirsh get it done given the future stars that may be offered from other teams.

[Kyle]

xaseq its going to be a contender because Zito will be a free agent after the season. Why would the devil rays want half a season of Zito if they aren't anywhere close to playoff contention. My prediction is that Beane can't get as much as he wants and Zito becomes a free agent and Beane just enjoys his two draft pick compensation

[xaseq]

I have to agree with Kyle, Zito isn't going anywhere. The Athletics won't be that far out of contention to warrant a mid-season trade and its not like they get nothing if he leaves.

[Darin]

I don't see the Astros going after Zito. If they did, they'd start with offering Burke and 2 pitching prospects.

I can see the Rangers making a play for him if they fail to land Clemens.

[desturbd1]

Something to think about... over his career, Zito has been hammered by New York, posting a 5+ ERA. He's been handled pretty well by Boston too, with a 4.6 ERA. Since 2003, both teams have basically destroyed him; culminating last season with a 5.73 ERA vs Boston in 2 starts, and a 7.59 ERA vs NY in 2. Will this stop either team from dealing for him? Maybe not. But I think it's worth noting that neither team would be picking up someone that can handle their closest rival. Further, if Lester's as close to ML ready as many in Boston think he is, he may be contributing in one way or another by July anyhow.

[Berg]

"I think Billy Boy will be thrilled if he can just get picks for the guy. He won't be trading him for nothing, that's for sure."

First off, you are aware that draft picks are untradeable in MLB right? You can trade guys you have drafted, or lose picks by signing free agents, but you cannot trade them. Thus I doubt he'd be happy if he can get picks for Zito, since he can't.

As far as Zito's value, of course he's going to get a lot for him if he wants it. Pitching is at a premium in MLB right now. Zito is still considered an elite talent, he's left handed (Big plus if you can get a good one) and is still young. What makes anyone think Beane is going to get peanuts for Zito I don't know. Beane is better than that, and he won't take a bag of balls for Zito to let some other team try and win a championship with him. Beane would probably rather let Zito walk to free agency than give another team a shot at a championship for next to nothing. It's not always about getting what you can, sometimes it's about not letting other teams rip you off. If they don't give Beane what he wants, he doesn't give them what they want, and why would he? His job is to build the best possible A's team, not the best possible any other team bu the A's.

Also, the Cardinals wouldn't be on the Zito watch. We have too many holes in our rotation next year to give up the two cheap starters we have for one massively expensive one who won't do as much as the other two combined. It would probably push up the payroll $12+mil to resign Zito and get another starter, and the rotation wouldn't even definitely be better. Makes no sense for the Cards to package those two for Zito.

[TheRealErik]

"First off, you are aware that draft picks are untradeable in MLB right?"

No. I'm an idiot and i'm not being sarcastic.

I meant the picks Beane would get for Zito if he offered arbitration.

[EM3]

TheRealErik: If you read the suggestion from TheSportsFan.TV, you'd see that it wasn't Willis for Zito. Obviously that would never work. It was a trade where Oakland would get Willis, NYM would get Zito, and Florida would get Milledge and a prospect from the A's. And i think it makes sense. If I'm the A's, knowing that I could win a pennant this year, why would I trade Zito unless I can get a stud who can play now? Enter Dontrelle.

[desturbd1]

Berg, if a team loses a player to free agency, it receives compensation picks depending on that player's ranking as determined by the Elias Sports Bureau. These picks are wedged into the normal draft order, or between rounds. That's what the poster meant when he said he thought Beane would be happy just to get the picks.

[Zonis]

Berg, he was refering to compensation picks that the A's would recieve for Zito leaving (because there would be no way in hell he wouldn't offer him Arby).

I would LOVE to do the Willis idea. The Mets love Zito, and A's fans would love to welcome Willis back to Oakland to play for his home town team.

It would likely be something like;

To NYM:
Zito

To OAK:
Willis

To FLA:
Milledge
Meyer/Melillo
Prospect from Mets

[Teetz]

As for the Cubs, Hendry wouldn't do any deal unless he was assured that Zito would sign long term with the Cubs and if Zito has a hard on for New York, I am not expecting Hendry to put his cap into this trade.

[Berg]

If you notice in my first paragraph, I mention losing picks for signing free agents. I am well of the compensation plan when arbitration is offered.

The only risk to arbitration is if you can't afford to resign the player, and they take you up on arbitration. Ask the Phillies how well that worked for them. As for Zito, I doubt he'd take the arbitration and opt instead to sign a ridiculous long-term contract in NY. Naturally it would make sense to offer him arbitration if he is not traded.

I don't think the Marlins are trading Willis. It makes no sense for them. They dumped their high-priced veterans and have an excellent crop of young kids. They arn't going to be basement dwellers for the next 5 years, they will be on the rise again, and fast. It doesn't make sense to deal off your best pitcher who also happens to still be incredibly young and only making $4mil this year. Sure he and Cabrera will get large raises next year, but their payroll is only $15mil, surely they can afford to bump it up a few million to keep their franchise players around. Hey they still might do it, but from my understanding Willis is not for sale, and for good reason. Pitchers like him are hard to come by, and should be held on to if you can.

[TheRealErik]

Just so y'all know... Milledge is currently outplaying Mr. Universe (Delmon Young). Not only has his plate discipline shown an uptick, but he's hitting .386 with the slugging percentage to die for. This kid will consistently hit .300 in the show. You just don't trade that!

Unless Omar is getting the D-Train or the Miggy (the good, young one) Milledge ain't going nowhere.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

I think the Yanks probably won't make a big deal espically not trading Cano or Wang, it is possible that they trade Hughes and Duncan but can they get a top ace with that combo? they will be lucky if they can land a #2 caliber guy IMHO.

Big trades are for teams that 's already lost for the season and need to rebuild, the Yanks need to rebuild but they are never out of the playoff race, thus they need to rebuild on the run, they can't have big holes left from trades to hopefully fill later.

That's why Wang and Cano are pretty much out of the picture, to trade Wang means you need ANOTHER starter, while if Wang stays with the Yankees he probably won't even make the allstars for a long time to come thus could be signed on for a relatively low contract but will most likely have consistent output as long as he stays healthy.

Cano is also a hard case to make as you will be hard pressed to find a 2B around of he's caliber on demand, and while he have good trade potential, getting a ACE with him is also a wild shot at best, even with Duncan + Hughes thrown in I still don't see people giving up top quality ace for that and other teams probably could throw out much better packages.

In the end, my guess is if Cashman is smart enough he will not make a huge trade for a ACE, but try to find one on the FA sometime before RJ runs out, and use Wang and Chacon for the mid rotation while shoring up the rest of the rotation with minor league prospects and/or FA or minor trades. (finding a solid 3rd spot starter is certainly not that hard wether from FA or minor trades)

Think about it, RJ still have a year + left on he's contract, that's 2 offseason and what are the chances that no ACE will reach FA before that point? and as long as there is one, the Yanks certainly have the best shot of getting him, espically if they don't go out there ways and screw up their lineups right now that they would need to shop for everything in the offseason.

I rather be looking for one ACE in the FA with a full line up than looking for a lineup with one ace.

[RotoAuthority]

I don't think we can say Milledge will consistently hit .300 in the show. Even on this current hot streak in Triple A, he still has an 84% contact rate. Before then it was worse than that. I love walking 12% of the time, if he can keep that up...if he gets that contact rate consistently at 86% and keeps drawing those walks then I think he profiles as a .300 hitter.

[Kyle]

Now that Crisp, Ortiz, Lee and a couple others got extensions I was wondering if you could do an updated free agents list for this upcoming offseason.

[TheRealErik]

"Even on this current hot streak in Triple A, he still has an 84% contact rate."
You should probably include a range of contact rates considering the small sample size. Anywhere from 80%-90% given the number of AB's.

Another month or two should give us a better idea, yeah?

[RotoAuthority]

Yeah, we should know whether he's upped his game in a month or two.

[JerseyMetFan]

If I'm the Mets, I don't trade Milledge for anyone not named Pujols. This isn't a case of your typical Met fan overvaluing his spects, but we need Milledge in LF next year. Floyd had a great year last year, but I don't see the Mets resigning him. Milledge, Beltran, Nady for 2007 OF.

I would rather sign him as a FA, assuming he would want to come here and not just use us to bump his price up. Who would Met fans rather lose? Milledge or two draft picks? Not a doubt in my mind.

[TheRealErik]

Milledge is the TRUTH.

9 walks in 50 AB's with a .404 average. Looks like he's making "The Leap." He's 21 and killing AAA for Pete's sake!

[RotoAuthority]

Just reading through these comments...

If Cole Hamels is somehow completely healthy and comes out blazing for three months, and the Phils want to throw in Gio too, I think Beane would take that. Seems like a crazy thing for the Phillies to do, but they may warrant a mention even without a top 50 guy. Hamels could be that guy.