2007 Seattle Mariners

Next up, those Seattle Mariners.  Many thanks to the fine Mariners blogs U.S.S. Mariner and Lookout Landing for their work.  It's always good to consult the experts before doing a writeup on their team. 

Bill Bavasi's contract obligations:

C - Kenji Johjima - $5.2MM
C - Guillermo Quiroz - $0.3275MM
1B - Richie Sexson - $14MM
2B - Jose Lopez - $0.335MM
SS - Yuniesky Betancourt - $0.4MM
3B - Adrian Beltre - $11.5MM
IF - Willie Bloomquist - $1MM
LF - Raul Ibanez - $5.5MM
CF - Ichiro Suzuki - $11MM
RF - Chris Snelling - $0.3285MM
OF - Jeremy Reed - $0.375MM
DH - Ben Broussard - $2.5MM, Eduardo Perez - club option, est. $2MM

SP -
SP - Felix Hernandez - $0.34MM
SP - Jarrod Washburn - $10MM (estimated)
SP - Jake Woods - $0.332MM
SP - Cha Seung Baek - $0.332MM

RP - J.J. Putz - $0.415MM
RP - Rafael Soriano - $0.5MM
RP - George Sherrill - $0.335MM
RP - Francisco Cruceta - $0.33MM
RP - Mark Lowe - $0.33MM
RP - Julio Mateo - $1MM

It seems that the club has roughly $70-75MM tied up for 2007.  The Opening Day 2006 payroll was about $88MM.  There are all sorts of ways Bavasi can prove his mettle with the '07 club.

The catching situation is well accounted for, and that's a feather in Bavasi's cap.  It's probably time to let Quiroz back up Johjima, which is not a big risk because Johjima is out there almost 85% of the time.

In perusing Lookout Landing, speculation was that the Ms could attempt to trade Sexson this winter coming off a resurgent second half.  Given his salary, age, and profile, that's a fine idea.  In the meantime, we'll pencil him in.

The middle infield looks OK.  Jose Lopez appeared to be breaking out this year, but pitchers adjusted and he hasn't responded.  Next year will be his age 23 season, so there's hope for more growth.  Betancourt's stepped it up a little bit and will hopefully continue to do so as a 25 year-old.

Since June, Beltre's been quite good at .284/.343/.521.  Mark Teahen is the only 3B in the league who outhit him over that time period.  Beltre could still be moved; Bavasi might get a good return given the weak free agent class. 

Ibanez is solid in left, and Ichiro's finally moved to CF to help the club.  It looks like Snelling can hit like a league average RF (.287/.350/.472).  It would be wise to keep Jeremy Reed around as a fourth outfielder and defensive replacement rather than deal him with his value at a low.

The Brourez DH monster hasn't worked out well in Seattle, surprisingly.  At least part of it should be back for '07, if for nothing else than to justify the price paid for Perez and Broussard.

Skipping ahead to the bullpen - it looks like one of the game's best and at a ridiculously low cost.  If the medical staff can keep these guys healthy Mariner games will become six inning affairs.

Obviously the big need in Seattle is starting pitching.  Woods and Baek should maybe be competing for the fifth slot, but both will probably struggle given full-season exposure.  Both pitchers might be penciled into rotation slots to begin 2007, but it won't end that way.  In reality, the Ms need one ace and one mid-level guy to field a competitive team next year.  Ryan Feierabend looks promising, but may not be ready until 2008. 

Maybe the Japanese connection will help the Mariners snare Daisuke Matsuzaka, or perhaps Jason Schmidt or Adam Eaton will be persuaded to pitch near home.  Getting the Japanese star in addition to Schmidt/Zito could never happen given the number of teams looking to spend money on pitching.  Bavasi should do everything he can to get Matsuzaka, and then try a Miguel Batista/Byung-Hyun Kim/Jeff Weaver type as well.  Last year, the Mariners came in second in an attempt to sign Wade Miller.  They could renew interest this winter.         

Comments

[obsessivegiantscompulsive]

Yeah, about Adrian Beltre, that's good: if you want a 3B for half a season at his salary.

And while what he hit was good (864 OPS), for his salary, you are looking for someone who can deliver a lot more than that and on a consistent season-long basis, I would think.

[RotoAuthority]

Well I'm just trying to look on the bright side of things. Not saying he's a good deal.

[Kyle]

Schmidt has said he would like to pitch in Seattle. A 1-2 of Schmidt and King Felix could be amazing. With a couple of smart moves the Mariners could be very good next season. Trading Sexson for some young outfielders or pitchers would be a real smart move.

[Padresfan]

The Mariners need more than players they need a better coach.
Washburn in my opinion is washed up. He was not worth that contract.
Beltre would be better off in the NL. I highly doubt he would even put up those numbers again right before he hit the free agent market.

How about doing something on the Padres.

[was385]

No, Beltre won't put up those numbers because the steroid testing and punishment is better now. All these guys are certainly taking roids in contract years. Him and Javy Lopez both come to mind.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

I think the pitching problem is over stated, they pitched just fine this year (Well maybe not relative to their division but relative to the league..)

I think they are better off looking for a real DH... Barry Bonds maybe? and just fill in the last starter with someone passable.

the problem with trading Beltre is that there is simply on better alternatives out there, unless they want to blow it up good (which i doubt) they won't move most of the guys they have (except maybe the crappy DH dual)

[was385]

This team always seems to underachieve. They have a good starting staff, incredible bullpen, and good offense and defense. If they can get a good number one starter or another power bat I think they should be well off

[Jerry]

was385,

Almost nothing you said is correct. The M's starting pitching is not good. The offense is young but inconsistent. I don't think that you can say that they underachieved at all. The talent just wasn't there.

The realistic expectation for this club was just below .500. That is exactly what happened. Even with a full year of Sexson and a good season from Felix, this wasn't a playoff team from day 1.

[Jerry]

The one thing that didn't get included in this discussion regards some of the veterans. In particular, the M's are going to have to figure out what to do with Ichiro. Next season is the final year on his current contract. There has been lots of rumors that he is unhappy. He could be on his way out.

The M's will have to decide what to do with him, as well as moving to lock up guys like Soriano and Putz.

They obviously need that one ace pitcher. I would be suprised if they weren't aggressive in the bidding for Matsuzaka.

If they are going to add a second starter plus a bat, they will need to get creative. They could perhaps try to get a team-friendly deal for an injured starter, perhaps Mark Mulder, Randy Wolf, or Wade Miller. Plus, they could try to resign Gil Meche (although I think that would be a mistake).

The best way forward would be to pull off some sort of creative trade. But Bavasi hasn't made any real interesting deals besides veteran selloffs at the deadline. Unfortunately, the most likely trades - like Beltre or Sexson - would more holes to fill. Their best trade chip - Ichiro - would be a real unpopular move.

Hopefully, the M's front office will be willing to raise the payroll a bit. They have been at about the same number for a long time. With so many other clubs raising payrolls, and lots of money flying around, the M's will need to add some payroll to keep up. If they go up to $100 million, and spend that money wisely, they could be legit contenders.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

They could blow up the whole team (trading
Ichiro / Beltre / Sexon / Ibanez ) but i kinda doubt they would do that, and seeing their moves in recent years i doubt they would get good results if they do it anyway.

The M's this year is simply mediocare at everything (below average offense, average starter, somewhat above average bullpen that was usless because they simply don't score enough to get a lead half the times.)

moving Ichrio to center is a good start. I'm not sure what Jose Lopez will give them next year, though if there's one thing the M's dont' lack it's 2B prospects so they should be fine there.

If you look from this year, the main problem with their offense is.

a. Beltre / Sexon simply wasn't that great, their not horrible, but not exactly what they paid the money for. they were pretty much average to slightly above average offensely overall.

b. DH: they arguablly got less out of this position then the Twins, (Which is ungodly bad) Everett was a completely junk and the Indians dual didn't work out either. they had terrible production from a completely offense oriented position. no wonder they did much better against the NL.

C. CF, Reed gave them nothing, the only good thing that came out of this is that they finally realize Ichiro is best suited at CF.

SP wise they weren't great but were far from bad, next year's Felix and Washburn should be slightly better at least. if they get another good SP here they should do well.

I'm not sure wether Putz can put up another year like this one, though between him and Soriano the chances aren't that shabby.

IMHO

Sign either Bonds / Thomas / Sheffield or some other good veteran slugger ( Alou / Piazza would be alright too) they need one, Bonds would be the best gamble IMHO.

let one of Broussard or Perez go, depend on the DH you get.

Go get a SP, if they can get Matsuzaka great (though i think their chances aren't that good.) going after guys like Randy Wolf / Wade Milliar would be nice as well. Zito would be great too though I doubt they can get a DH & a top starter at the same time.

Is it a sure bet to compete? dunno, though the AL west this year isn't exactly awsome... I'm still preplex on why the A's can do so well.. they pitch well as expected but still.. their Thomas/Swisher or nothing offense actually getting it done is amazing. the Angels are stuck with Garret Anderson next year .. and the Rangers are giving the Cubs a run for their money on stupidity.