Projecting Akinori Iwamura

Hi everybody, I'm going to be filling in for Tim later this month, and we wanted me to have a chance to get my feet wet on the site before he left.

First off, thanks to Tim for inviting me to post.  Some of you may know me from my Brewers blog, Brew Crew Ball, and others may recognize my name from my columns at The Hardball Times.  I also designed and run the site MinorLeagueSplits.com which, as you can probably figure out, has split and situational stats for every 2006 minor leaguer.  (I've also got Hawaii and Arizona winter league stats, too.)

This morning I published an article at The Hardball Times about Akinori Iwamura. He's been posted by the Yakult Swallows, and while the Phillies have said they're not interested (can't cut in to Abraham Nunez's playing time, oh no!) that still leaves a variety of possible destinations: Red Sox, Padres, Indians, and potentially anybody who wanted in on Aramis Ramirez but doesn't think they'll get him.

The big question about Iwamura is his power.  Will he be like Hideki Matsui and turn into a .300-hitting doubles machine?  Will he look like a Triple-A masher who can't quite cut it in the bigs?  You'll have to follow the link for all my projections (it'd be way too much to post here), but through a variety of methods I came up with a range of possible performances for Iwamura.

On the optimistic side, Iwamura could be 2006 Ryan Zimmerman: 825 OPS, 20 HRs, a bunch of doubles.  Median, say 2006 Chad Tracy: ~795 OPS, BA down around 275-280.  Worst case?  David Bell.  The Bell comparison came through seeing what would happen to Iwamura's stats if he had the same first-year experience that Matsui did: decent average, but massive power outage.  It's not pretty, and it may have been the sort of thought process that made Pat Gillick think twice about the Japanese slugger.

After running a whole bunch of projections, I have to admit that I don't know much better than anybody else what Iwamura will do in MLB.  There have been so few power hitters who have played in both MLB and Japan, so Matsui is really about all we have to go on.  If I had to guess, I'd say Iwamura will post a BA-heavy 780 OPS in 2007, and have more success, say 810-820 with more power in '08 and beyond.

Posted by Jeff Sackmann

Comments

[The Congo Hammer]

Is there a chance if he goes to the Red Sox or the Indians that he would be converted into a second baseman? That would give him huge value with those projected stats.

[Kramerica Industries]

Its said he can play third short second or center! THat why i think he would be a good in boston if they trade Crisp move him to center if they trade Lowell move him to third if they dont move him to second

[Soxfn24]

Glad to have you here Jeff. I'm hoping to see some good reports during this very busy part of the rumor season. No pressure though...

But I definitely have to agree with you Congo. Iwamura would be huge with the Sox, but the only problem there would be Pedroia. Pedroia could possibly be a utility man, but it seems a waste after all the hype that was put on him. His biggest impact would probably be biggest in the Indians lineup, giving them Sizemore, Hafner, V-Mart, and Iwamura as some very potent bats in a good offense.

[papi4prez]

The Sox will leave room for Pedroia. If they get Iwamura, expect him to play 3B after they trade Mike Lowell for bullpen help.

[Soxfn24]

I hope that happens Papi4prez, because it will be tough to trade his large contract. I know it will probably get done, but you can only hope that its going to in fact be for bullpen help. With the way that things went last season, I'm a little nervous that Theo might not do the right thing here.

[Kyle S]

Jeff, glad to see you posting here. I took a stab at an Iwamura projection today using a home-baked translation system and came up with a line similar to your median projection: .290/.340/.440, roughly. I wonder how much power Iwamura will ever get - he's only 5'9", and there have been few guys that short in recent years to ever hit 25+ HRs. If I had to bet, I'd say he never hits 25 homers in a MLB season.

http://sturgeongeneral.wordpress.com is the address of my site. check it out if you like.