McAdam: Red Sox Matsuzaka Rumor Probably Accurate

Sean McAdam of the Providence Journal spoke to several baseball sources, and learned that Buster Olney's report of a $38-45MM Red Sox bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka was "probably accurate."  Not something Yankee fans wanted to hear.

Newsday's Ken Davidoff spoke to sources with connections to both New York clubs who indicated that neither team expects to win the bid.

 

Comments

[Guardo369]

I again must simply respond with a "wow". If this is 100% true, this is really weird. Red Sox put a cap on Damon, they put a cap on Pedro, they put a cap on pretty much anyone, and if that player wants more, they walk away. To see them doing something very Yankee-like, which is throw tons and tons of money in the face of a team/player, it's truely weird.

As a Red Sox fan, I have to say, if he is wearing a Red Sox jersey in April, I'm happy. I think whether he goes to the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, or Rangers, he's going to be a number 1 ace. I don't think a team should pay anything more than 60 million for him, which they will (once you add in the bid). Sadly, that's the nature of the business.

But like all 'rumors', I will not believe it completely until I hear an official announcement.

[Guardo369]

I'd like to add a quick note - I read that bottom article you posted up, and I must say, after reading that, and seeing that if an agreement isn't reached between the Red Sox (or whoever wins the bid) and Matz/Boras, he has to return to his team in 2007. I could completely see this being simply a block from the Yankees, and trying to offer him no more than 50 million. If they don't want it, he just simply goes back to Japan, no big deal. I don't know...

[greenbaydude1232]

The only reason the Red Sox made this bid was to block the yankees, its that plain and simple. It seems to me that Matsuzuka/Boras don't really have a ton of leverage in this deal. Seems to be if he goes back to Japan and becomes a true FA next year the yankees will get him for sure but you never know. I understand the strategic move by the Red Sox and I think its a great one, if they think they can honestly win the east next year. Otherwise they probably could have won him with a bid under 30 million but I guess thats still to find out. In any case, in any fantasy drafts or mock drafts I do in the next month I'm not drafting matsuzuka thats for sure!

[eeleye99]

There's just no way the Red Sox would tarnish their image and future bargaining power just to block a pitcher from getting to the Yankees for one year. They aren't that desperate and it hurts their optics in more ways then one, and many teams would be upset...plus they could fail and the rights could be handed to the 2nd place team if they haven't negotiated fairly.

[nickjs21]

I can't see DMat being anywhere but the US next year. If indeed this is a block move, MLB steps in and the 2nd highest bidder gets rights to negotiate, and if it isn't a block move, then it seems he'd be a BoSox(Sock?). Either way, he's pitching here come April (I hope).

Of course there's the trickiness of proving it's a block. But it's my understanding Selig just needs to suspect it to intervene.

[nickjs21]

And if this is true, and the Red Sox do indeed offer him a 5yr/45 million contract as stated in the article, I can imagine Steinbrenner making a huge fuss in the media with headlines like, "We would have paid more!" and the like, which would only make the situation worse between Boras and the BoSox brass.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"The only reason the Red Sox made this bid was to block the yankees, its that plain and simple."
"It seems to me that Matsuzuka/Boras don't really have a ton of leverage in this deal"

First point, WRONG. Second point legitimate. When I first saw this, I thought WOW unbelievable. That is completely ridiculous. But with time to digest it, it seems understandable. They will make the posting money back in licensing agreements with Japenese TV, merchandise and all that other nonsense. The reasons the Mariners, and the yankees are so happy with Ichiro/Matsui disregarding the fact that they are great players is the excessive amount of money they get from licensing to an overseas market. The Red Sox could easily make a deal that to get the games that Matsuka(SP) pitches the japanese tv stations have to carry more games, that just those ones. With that they earn money. The understood a large bid would have to be made to win him outright and sacrificed a small profit margin for a pitcher that everybody says will succced in the ML, and they will turn a profit on the deal. Even after posting fees, and his contract they will make money. Not to mention the fact that anybody who says Schilling/Matsuzaka/Beckett/Papelbon/Lester isn't scary is a fooooooooooool.

[eeleye99]

As wikiepdia points out, Matsuzaka has been considered a hero since a teenager. He's probably the biggest Japanese superstar there is. I work at the Rogers Centre (Jays) as an usher and when Matsui is in town there is tons of Japanese guys....with D-Mat, I'd bet that the amount of coverage would be INSANE in Japan.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Wang makes a boatload of money for the Yankees from Taiwan. I've been there I assure you, you see nothing but Yankees hats and signs because of him. If you spend anytime talking to people there, they will tell you they don't like the Yankees but root for Chien Ming Wang. The Sox can plant a flag in Japan, a tad larger market than Taiwan with this signing. Even if it doesn't pan out long term,(which it would), more people will be watching Sox games for Matsuzaka than they would for Mariners games with Ichiro. Do not underestimate the pride that he brought with the WBC title.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

EXACTLY eeleye99

[TheRealErik]

I'm a bit soused as I type this, but her it goes...

D-Mat will be a nice pitcher, but his HR numbers will skyrocket, especially in Fenway and ESPECIALLY in the NL East.

Folks, i'm predicting it now... a 3.5 ERA at best a 4 ERA at worst.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"but his HR numbers will skyrocket, especially in Fenway"

Check the numbers and the sky-line bro. Fenway is NO LONGER an easy place to hit hr. Anybody who says otherwise doesn't have a god damn clue what they are talking about.

[palehose35]

if this is the case, he's being severely overrated. hype is a crazy thing. if 40M or so is the price to negotiate, I can only hope the Red Sox are the team to do so. It fits in with their overall theme of buying talent, yet blaming other teams for doing the same.

[nrmax88]

But wait, even if the redsox dont come to terms with mats on a deal, doesnt japan have the right to accept the second highest bid, instead of getting scrued and getting nothing next year. I heard they are bankrupt and need the money. Couldnt they sell to the next highest bidder if the highest didnt work out? I mean its their guy so i would think their decision to make

[nrmax88]

arod, sounds like a good rotation except one thing. SChilling is what 42 years old now? Becket had an era above 5 last year. Matsusaka is untested as a pitcher in the majors, Papelbon has never started a game before, and doesnt lester have cancer and is undergoing treatment?

[dcrono]

Well, one thing about the Red Sox opening up the Japanese market, I seriously doubt that it will be worth the amount they paid. Also, I doubt the Red Sox will be able to get a cheaper deal because of their bid. Boras has a reputation to maintain, players go to him so they get paid top dollar. If he can't get a good deal for Matsuzaka, he loses his reputation and players will be less willing to go to him.

[desturbd1]

Haha looks like everything I speculated about in the earlier post was pretty accurate, right down to Boston's using an expansion of the Japanese fanbase as a defense of the big posting fee. Though I may have overestimated Matsuzaka's yearly salary...:)

Anyway nrmax, Lester is getting cancer treatment and can't be counted on in 07. Schilling's "only" 40. Papelbon started all the way through the minors and had a few starts in 05, so I don't know what you're talking about there...I think it's fair to assume he's improved since his OK debut 2 years ago. As for the much maligned Beckett...he had an ERA over 5 with a ridiculous and hard to match HR rate...expect both stats to come down quite a bit as he adjusts. As I've pointed out elsewhere in the past, Beckett was the most inconsistant pitcher I've ever seen. In the games he won, his ERA was around 2 or something like that...in his losses, over 10. Weird, expect him to settle down.

So barring any health issues, Boston could conceivably have 4 SP's with ERA's at or below 4. I don't think any other AL team comes into next season, assuming Matsuzaka is signed, with a better looking front 4. Except maybe Detroit, though I expect them to regress.

Dcrono...in the short term, like the next 3-4 years, no, Boston probably won't recoup $45 million from Japan. But in the longrun, I don't see how you can make that assessment. Big, big untapped (by Boston at least) market. Also, Boras is a douche, but he does understand the word 'negotiate.' Boston may be aiming at 5/45, but I'm sure they'll meet him somewhere in the middle.

[quintjs]

nrmax88 makes a great point about the Boston rotation, it reads great, but there are questions marks everywhere.

Still, I am a fan, and I think it will work out ok.

Its pretty obvious that the Red Sox are trying to enter the Asian market, especially Japan. So the Bid money seemes to in part come from marketing budgets and future revenue.

The Red Sox did not place a huge bid to keep the Yankees from getting him. For starters hes a great pitcher, so you might as well try to sign him. 2) they scouted him for a year, all that time and money, you don't do that if you are blocking someone. 3) they don't go out to block other teams, otherwise Damon would be wearing a Sox uniform, it would have been even better form of blocking, it would have gave the sox a CF, and stopped the Yankees from getting one, but they let him walk, because they were not prepared to committ the money for such a long time. They basically gave Damon to the Yankees.

[SiddFinch]

Enough with the "D-Mat" reference already. Its a pathetically tired attempt at a psuedo-nickname. I can just hear Steve Somer's morphing it into DoorMat. From the video I've seen, I do not think this guy is anywhere near the mortal lock #1 Ace folks are making him out to be. I see a lot of weak swings at splitters at the eyes and called strikes on balls at the ankles in those videos.

[YankeeBaseball]

It appears y'all are probably right and he will be a Red Saux. All I can say is congrats to the Saux fans and it will be a nice challenge facing him next year.

[Tak]

nrmax88, if they allowed the team to go with the 2nd highest bid, there would be no point in using this posting system. (of course unless the highest bid is clearly to interfere, which is already part of the rule)

Anyhow, I am no expert but I think this bid amount makes sense for many reasons, most of them already stated elsewhere:

1. no need for luxury tax
2. its a "bidding", so the bidding price is probably higher than what the team might value him
3. Posting fee may be high, but the fact that Matsuzaka really wants to start playing ASAP will give the team some advantage when negotiating his salary. If he were a free agent, he probably could have asked for about 13-15M a year, while through the posting system the team will get away with 10M or so.
4. Japan money, and by the way, though Matsuzaka IS a real star, I think you should put him at the same level as Ichiro / Matsui (he will probably receive more exposure at the beginning since it is his first year and it has been a while since Japan has had a good SP in the MLB)
5. Pitch count not such a big concern as people make it sound like, in Japanese baseball pitchers tend to throw much longer innings, ESPECIALLY in high school baseball. (Saitoh, this years hero of Highschool baseball, threw about 1000 pitches in the tournament. The finals was played twice since the first game ended in a draw after he threw 15 innings, and he threw 9 innings the following day. Crazy.)
6. weak free agent pool

Reasons why it makes more sense for Boston:

1. they have no Japanese player, making the Japanese money effect much larger than it would for NY or Seattle.
2. most though the Yankees would win the bid, so this is an investment to hurt their rivals. (and it definitely should)

Just hope this is not a blocking act because that would just mess up the whole system and will hurt the league in the future.

[dave]

Adding on to above list
7. Do not have to give up draft picks as a team would for other top flight free agents.

[Kyle]

If this is a blocking act it will get really really messy

In the end I dont care as a Yankee fan sure I wanted him a lot but at least this will end the Red Sox fans ability to complain about money. Also for anyone who thinks Matsuzaka is getting 9 million a year thing again. I expect 3-4 yearts at 12-13 per with an opt out clause at the end.

[start_wearing_purple]

A couple of points...

1) I know this was mentioned in a pervious thread, but if the bid was 45 million, it would have been announced by now.
2) Yes it's a lot of money but frankly, these people can afford it. Not just the Sox but most owners could.
3) Correct me if I'm wrong but the Yanks and the Mariners are big in Japan right now. If Matsuzaka is a hero, not only are we talking TV contracts, we're talking building an actual Red Sox market in the Far East. It's economically brilliant. So what if you spend a few extra million.
4) There's no garuentee in baseball.
5) 3 years of Matsuzaka, Papelbon, Beckett, Lester sounds like a damn fine combo. Even if Beckett onloy bounces back a little.

[start_wearing_purple]

Two more things

1) I'm hoping this isn't a way to block the yanks, if it becomes obvious it is I will be pissed, even as a Sox fan.
2) Anyone following the Matsuzaka blog? Damn that guy is throwing a freaking temper tantrum.

[redsox0909]

This is a great thing for the red sox. The needed a good young starter and the free agent market was dry. Say they sign to a five year deal, they'll have Matazaka, Beckett, Papelbon, And Lester. All around the age of 26. This wasn't a deal to block the yankees. Its a deal for to boost the sox rotation for the years to come. Great Deal

[YankeeBaseball]

Redsox0909, Don't count your chickens before they're hatched. There's been no announcement from Seibu and whoever wins still has to deal with Boras to sign him.

[theMATTador]

If the red sox do win the posting rights, there is no doubt in my mind they can deal with boras... they may not like to deal with him, but they have a decent working relationship

[redsox0909]

even if they dont get the deal done, they could deal Matazaka to a team like the Mets for Heilman and Pelfrey. This is if they can't get the deal done and if they are the top bidder

[papi4prez]

I hope you're joking.

[nickjs21]

But if they don't get the deal done, they don't have the rights to Matsuzaka, so how would they deal him to anyone? And even if they could, despite what a lot of people are saying about him being overrated, I would absolutely want Matsuzaka on my team.

And for the record, apologies to SiddFinch, but I used DMat often just because I didn't want to type out Matsuzaka.
(Boy I'm hoping Josh Barfield becomes J-Barf. He's fast, too. Projectile Vomit?)

[eeleye99]

I am skeptical if this report is true. So far I've heard it could be the Red Sox, Rangers, Angels or Yankees...that the Yankees and others deny they've heard anything. (Thought they'd probably say that anyway).

[desturbd1]

Olney's blog has more on the rumor. He says "multiple major league officials" believe Boston won with a "staggering bid." He goes on to justify the huge posting fee; I'll summarize the most pertinent points.

-At the least, the Yanks won't have him.

-Boston stands to cash in in the Eastern market.

-Boston may offer one fair deal-like something close to what they're paying Beckett, for instance-and refuse to move. If Boras threatens to go to Japan, Boston CAN trade the rights to negotiate with him.

Some baseball officials speculated that Boston might essentially trade Matsuzaka to the Mets, for Heilman and maybe another one or two prospects and part of the posting fee. In this situation, Boston would essentially be buying players from another team. The money would be luxury tax-free.

Also, thanks for your imput Finch, you should probably be working for a major league team with that kind of scouting ability. I mean to be able to predict a pitcher's future with video clips better then scouts who've spent hours watching him...that's quite impressive.

[twentyfivemanroster]

I still have my doubts. I think all of this talk is wishful thinking. I've heard Rangers, RedSox and now Angels. I just can't see the Seibu Lions waiting this long for 4$5 million.

[ScottBrosius]

I know people are obsessed with the yankees, but it doesn't appear the Yankees made the second biggest bid. If anything, the Sox have blocked the Texas Rangers. So stop using that as some sort of justification.

The yankees make a clear decision that this guy wasn't worth paying 15-20 million a year. GOI yankees haters.

[desturbd1]

Umm...Boston didn't exactly know the Rangers would outbid the Yanks...it was a blind auction. So that's still a justifiable reason to bid that much.

[ScottBrosius]

Umm... ok than Boston got out thought again by the yankees, because, if this is true, they bid 18 million too much for no reason. Does no one get this? Great, they blocked the yankees, BUT THE YANKEES WERE ALREADY BLOCKED by the freakin rangers because they just weren't that into him!

[ScottBrosius]

BTW, for you folks that thing this guy is can't miss, #1 ace, remember how dangerous hype can be about japanese players that Bobby Valentine thinks are special:

That's Kazuo Matsui-a.k.a. "Little Matsui"-no relation to the Yankees' Hideki "Godzilla" Matsui, other than their shared Japanese superstardom. Kazuo (please don't call him Kaz) is the switch-hitter with as much speed as Ichiro and nearly as much power as Godzilla; the slick infielder with the firehose arm and intercontinental range; the new-breed Japanese athlete, who respects most of his nation's baseball traditions even while his hair sports more colors than the Shinjuku Gardens' chrysanthemum beds.

Scouts won't speak his name, afraid of tipping their hands (okay, they all want him), but his countrymen can say it and do, at the tops of their lungs. The Sapporo Dome fills with cries from the oendan, the super-organized cheering section for Japan's national team. Accompanied by cornet, drums and Rising Sun flags, they chant their leadoff hitter's name with earsplitting enthusiasm: "Katsu & Katsu & Katsu & Ohh!"

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=2266494&type=story

[desturbd1]

The whole 'blocking the Yanks' thing probably wasn't the primary impetus to Boston's bidding...it was just the icing on the cake. So no, they were not "outthought" by the brilliant Yankees...And just because NY doesn't value him as highly as Boston or the Rangers do doesn't mean he's going to suck...

Lots of prospects flame out. Lots of No. 1 picks in lots of drafts fail miserably. Bringing up one example of a Japanese player sucking doesn't prove a thing, except that you're desperately trying to show why NYY is better off without Matsuzaka.

One more thing...this talk about this being out of character for Boston recently...I disagree. They put a cap on Pedro because of his age (33 at the time) and durability issues, and what happened? He pitched great in 2005, everyone laughed at Boston as they floundered in the postseason, and one year later his career may be finished.

They put a cap on Damon because of his age (31 at the time) and durability issues, and what happened? He had an OK 2006 where he rediscovered his power stroke but lost points off his Avg. and OBP for the 2nd year in a row. Too early to make the call on that one.

No, paying Matsuzaka fits exactly Boston's MO. They gave Beckett and Crisp extensions because they're at the age where most players enter their prime, and are now locked up through their best seasons. Matsuzaka is 26, and Boston's going to try and do the same thing with him. Sounds like a pretty decent plan to me.

[ScottBrosius]

This is ridiculous. It can't be icing on the cake if it isn't true. They didn't block the yankees at all. They essentially dropped out. Sounds like the Angels bid more than than the Yankees too. They weren't even close. They made a decision to pass on this guy, just like they passed on Kaz.

The Sox were out thought because they bid way, way more than anyone else. This is like the Alex Rodriguez deal all over again. Yea, he might be great, but no one is worth 20 million a year long term - especially when no one else was offering 15 million a year. Add on to this that this is an enormous risk - just like Kaz - and it hardly seems worth it.

Damon had a great year and mr. Crisp didn't. Talk to sox fans and see how happy they are about trading marte for Crisp and giving crisp a ridiculous deal. Beckett might turn out to be OK but he is no savior.

[desturbd1]

Well since Marte hasn't done anything yet and Crisp was hurt all year, most semi-intelligent Sox fans will hold on their assessment. And $5 million a year is hardly a ridiculous contract for Crisp. You're pulling the same "he had one good year" with Damon that everyone did with Pedro. Typical. There are a few years left on that deal, pal...

Beckett MIGHT turn out to be a mistake, I'll give you that, but I'm not sure how that's in any way relevant to the Matsuzaka discussion...

Bidding above the Yankees "blocks" the Yankees. We're just arguing semantics. Bidding above the Rangers, who were above $30 million, simply shows that Boston wanted Matsuzaka to themselves, and were not playing politics. Oh, and I don't know where you read that LAA bid above NY...all Olney said was that they submitted a bid. He didn't have any numbers.

Matsuzaka will not cost $19-20 million a year. Boston expects to recoup much of the posting fee by expanding in Japan. So you can't just add that number to his contract and say "he's costing $20 million per year;" there are other factors to consider.

PS: Yes, the Yanks were right to pass on Matsui. That doesn't make them infallable.

[ScottBrosius]

You brought up beckett and crisp as relevant, not me. I agree that they are irrellevant, if for nothing else than they didn't pay nearly as much for them as they are going to pay for this guy.

"Oh, and I don't know where you read that LAA bid above NY...all Olney said was that they submitted a bid. He didn't have any numbers."

Turns out, Olney isn't the only report in the world:

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-061110matsuzaka,1,1255770.story?coll=cs-home-headlines

"We're just arguing semantics."

No we aren't. Boston did not gain any advantage from "blocking" the yankees because the Yankees did not have the next largest bid. If these reports are to be believed, the yankees weren't even close. For sox fans to be justifying this ridiculous price tag by saying it blocks the yankees - that is just wrong. Yankees weren't going to get him anyway.

"Matsuzaka will not cost $19-20 million a year."

He will cost 15-20 million a year, plus since the posting fee is upfront its probably closer to 21 million a year - and that isn't counting luxury tax (though the posting fee doesn't count on the luxury tax). Just because Boston might make some money on expansion in japan doesn't mean this guy doesn't cost what he costs. That's a huge amount of money - especially considering that both NY and Seattle got the same expansion aspect for much, much less. Additionally, NY got expansion into Taiwan from Wang, who cost very little. This prior history suggests that the Japanese expansion aspect, while important, is not worth nearly this much and could have been accomplished through cheaper means.

No, the yankees are not infalible. Not at all. They signed Pavano, they signed Contreras. They've made a host of mistakes. But from this I've learned that guys who have great numbers in different countries (Contreras, Kaz Matsui) or even different leagues (Pavano, Wright, Vasquez, Beckett) don't translate always well into the AL East.

I'm not saying this guy won't pitch well. I'm saying there is a huge risk being taken here. The sox will be paying this guy Manny money, and that is insane.

[Tak]

Once again since this information has not been spread out:

The reason why Seibu Lions have not announced the winner is because they want to wait till the WBC victory party taking place next week to make the announcement (at least according to some sources in Japan)

Anyhow, this whole "risk" thing is getting old. I know some guys are riskier than others, but every move a team makes has his own risks. Paying huge amounts of money to Zito or Schmidt doesn't sound like much less riskier to me than signing Matsuzaka.

In terms of performance risks, I believe that signing a Japanese pitcher is quite a bit safer than signing a batter, there have been plenty of pitchers who have done alright/good/great (Sasaki, Nomo, Ishii, Ohka, Hasegawa, Otsuka, Saito, Takatsu). Matsuzaka also is rated higher than these guys in the first place, and he has proved himself on the international scene already as well (Olympics, WBC). He is also young and wants to improve, so even if he is not too great in his first season, there is plenty of room for improvement, the worst he could be is a very good pitching prospect.

As for health issues, people can talk about his pitch count stuff all they want, but he sure looks healthier than 95% of the free agent market this year, both in terms of age, physical strength, and past injury record.

[desturbd1]

I only brought up Beckett/Crisp in response to someone else's post about this move going against Boston's stated plan of action, I didn't mean it in response to you. My bad, I guess.

The Sox will be paying this guy $10-12 million per year plus the posting fee. Again, you're just arguing semantics. I don't count the full cost of the posting fee because over the next decade, Boston should recoup most of it in the Japanese market. I don't care that it's paid up front; what's the difference? It's not like John Henry is going broke to do it, so it doesn't really matter how long it takes to get his money back. I'm looking at the $45 million as a long term investment into Japan; and I'm sure Boston will justify it with similar language.

And yes, I'm assuming that Matsuzaka will be good. I don't see anything wrong with making that assumption, since I wouldn't be having this discussion if I thought he was going to flame out. And like Tak said, I think he's far less risky then any of the other options on the market this year, and his upside is phenomenal. I'm also convinced he'll be better then Zito/Schmidt in 2007, and through the entire duration of their contracts. Though probably not if Schmidt or Zito end up in the NL.

And I'm done arguing about "blocking." If you want to think Boston fucked up and overpaid because of how brilliant the Yankees are, be my guest.

[ScottBrosius]

I'm basically just taking issue with any red sox fan (or buster olney) using the fact that the sox blocked the yankees as a justification for the deal. If the reports are to be believed, that is patently false and a stupid thing to say.

As to whether the guy is worth it, that is a matter of opinion. If the posting fee would really be made up so easily in japanese revenue, then every team without a presence (texas, angels, cubs) would have bid 30-40. Sounds like the sox were 18 million above everyone else, which suggests that the japanese market revenue might be closer to 15 million, not 40. Also, like I said, they could have accomplished that in different ways. Finally, you can't just not include that in his salary - if this guy flames out, then the Sox make nothing in japan because they'll look like fools. So you have to count it - so in the end they are going to be paying 15-20 million for the guy.

BTW, do you not believe in the time value of money? Why do you think deferred money contracts are so reviled by players? Paying that much up front is a huge additional cost. You can't just ignore that.

I think boras might get more than 10-12 million, so be prepared to pay luxury tax.

Finally, Boras went on XM radio and said all of the red sox reports are false. So we might be arguing over nothing - other reports in japan put the number closer to 20 million, some people are saying the angels. Hell, even Olney said "may".

[Kramerica Industries]

"Finally, Boras went on XM radio and said all of the red sox reports are false. So we might be arguing over nothing - other reports in japan put the number closer to 20 million, some people are saying the angels. Hell, even Olney said "may"."

No he did not!I heard Boras on XM. Boras said that he's been contacted by the media and asking if the Olney "report" was true. Boras said he has not been contacted by MLB disclosing which team won the bid.
In other words he said he doesnt know

[ScottBrosius]

Interesting - I guess the guys at the other site were lying. Well, let's see what happens next week.

[eeleye99]

I think Francisco Liriano and D-Mat make a good comparison, for perspective's sake. So lets put aside the Japanese economices for a second and the value of the Red Sox bid which I think IS very high (and the Japanese economics will more then pay out for it either way cause D-Mat is a MEGA STAR). Anyway. Before Liriano got hurt - he was pitching far better then the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana. His line of production - in the AL - was disgusting. 144 K's, 32 walks in 121 IP. Plus, he's young, to be 23...so the sky could have been the limit. He could have been the next Pedro Martinez for 10 years or whatever. I think if D-Mat ends up costing 18 million a year, its this sort of upside that could make his value exceed his cost. Like, if Liriano could pitch like that for 10 years guaranteed, he'd be signed for more then A-Rod...and the hope here is that D-Mat will. His numbers, talent and age all point in the right direction - really there's no more you can predict until he goes and pitches, and no one knows how that will turn out. He could be "Liriano-incarnate" for 10 years, or he could do as good as young phenom Hideo Nomo turned out, perhaps also likely...Nomo had a plus-4 ERA within 2 years. But I doubt he'd be awful.

[YankeeBaseball]

Red Saux fans are talking like it's a done deal, but it's not! Nothing has been announced. Until the official announcement, it's completely up in the air. I believe NYY have as good a chance as any of the other teams, regardless of baseless media speculation. If Boston ends up winning and signing him, then I will graciously tip my cap to them. But until it's official, I suggest discounting all these "reports" which probably have no basis in fact (ESPECIALLY coming from a guy like Olney whose been wrong so many times in the past).

[YankeeBaseball]

Also, regardless of economics, I'll say that I feel whoever gets him, will get a guy who will contend for a CY and be considered one of the best in baseball with a few years time. My sources in Japan who have seen him pitch in person tell me he's that good!

[Guardo369]

Oh, and to the person that said that the Sox gave Crisp a "ridiculous" deal, they gave him 3 years at 15 million. From the way he played in 2004 and 2005, tell me how that was anything but a really good signing?

Other than that, here is all I have to say: Any Yankee fan who is crying, saying that the Red Sox made a huge move (Even though it's not a done deal) is sad. If it does turn out that the Yankees will sign him, EVERY Yankee fan will turn around and reverse what they said - OH HE IS GOING TO BE WORTH THE INVESTMENT, WHAT A SMART MOVE BY THE YANKEES. Deny it all you want, but it's true. I heard someone say that the Yankees simply didn't "value" him as much as the Red Sox; How do you know that? Do you work for the Yankees? They very well may have bid 33 million, while the Sox bid 35. Hell, maybe the Yankees will turn out the winners.

I simply wish people would just shut up about the Red Sox getting him - No team has been announced, all we've heard is rumors. Don't always believe them (Though it COULD be true). Even if the Sox win the rights, it's not a done deal that he ends up in a Red Sox uniform.

So everyone: RELAX.

[desturbd1]

Haha jeez, anyone else notice that the name of this webpage is "MLB Trade Rumors?" The RUMOR at hand is that Boston won the bidding. So why not discuss it? Even if the $45 million mark seems a little unbelievable...the general direction of the rumor seems mostly credible. Yes, there have been a few conflicting reports saying that the Angels or Rangers may have won. And that'd be worth talking about, except the scant information backing Olney's original report is still better then what's out there about anyone else. If there was another rumor backed by "numerous major league sources" that Chicago or NYY or Kansas City for that matter won...we'd discuss it.

Yes, we're all just playing a big guessing game. But why not? It's fun, and even though it may all end up irrelevant come Monday or Tuesday...it's still fairly interesting. If people wanna speculate about why teams do what they do...thats their prerogative. And if you want people to "shut up" about Boston winning the bidding because it's not a done deal...then why bother visiting a website dedicated to rumors?

[Kramerica Industries]

Yankeesbaseball its not way "up in teh air" as you think it is or how it even was yesterday we now have multiple other sources saying they believe that Olney is accurate

And ScottBrosius i dont know if tehy were lying more tehn they heard what tehy wanted to ehar and hope that there got/gets Mats

[Kramerica Industries]

desturbd you make a great point there it is a Rumors website

[desturbd1]

Well to be fair Kramerica...I think many of these "multiple sources" are New England based. One Chicago paper reported that a Boston TV station said LAA may have won; The Providence Journal and Boston Herald both backed up Olney. A Newsday article said that officials from both NY teams think they lost out, but didn't specify a winner except in citing Olney.

I think it is up in the air, though given the lack of any specific bidding amounts from any other club besides Texas...I'd be very surprised if someone besides Boston won. As for signing him, I'm almost 100% sure that whoever wins the bidding will sign the guy. One thing in all this is certain-Someone spent a lot of money to negotiate with the kid. And I find it hard to believe that anyone would give up enough prospects/cash to trade for the right to negotiate.

[YankeeBaseball]

By all means, it's fun to talk about! (That's why I'm here).

It just seems ridiculous to me that certain Boston fans are taking it as fact that Boston won based on a suspect Boston writer Olney and that certain New England (i.e. Boston biased) newspapers have repeated his speculations. Doesn't make them true. In fact, Olney has usually been wrong in the past (if it was someone like Ken Rosenthal, I would give it more credence).

As I said before, I will gladly congratulate you if Boston does indeed win, but at this point it's still unknown who won...

[Kramerica Industries]

Alot are new england based and dont take that ANgels crap seriously atleast i dont Jacke Mc...whats her face knows nothing about baseball atleast when it comes to New England baseball writers. Mazz and Mcadam are probly the best out here still but the one guy that as I see as surprisnly quite is Peter Gammons I am shocked with all his "sources" he didnt make some phone calls to see whats goin on he is very high on this kid

[Kramerica Industries]

"Boston won based on a suspect Boston writer Olney and that certain New England (i.e. Boston biased) newspapers have repeated his speculations."

I have two problems with this statement-

1.Wasnt Olney a Yankee beat writer for many years? Correct me if I'm wrong I'm only getting off the top of my head and grew up a huge Dodgers fan?

2.I think your not giving credit to these sports writers who are backing Olney's report I mean they may follow and work with the Red Sox but that doesn't make them biased at all. I trust sports writers to right down the truth to what they hear from who ever they get there info from they wouldn't bring false information to there paper and attach it to there name if they didn't believe it was true

[desturbd1]

Agreed, YankeeBaseball, it is still unknown. But it's much more fun to talk about if we assume that it's true...yeah? At least that's why I've probably given the impression that I assume the rumor to be accurate.

The major reason I expect Boston to be the winner is that nobody has come out with anything to suggest that Olney is wrong. Like there are no 'counter-rumors,' and the estimates other writers are giving as to other top bids are well below what Olney's sources have said. Plus, today's Olney blog makes it sound like he talked to more baseball officials, and that all of them agreed that Boston won. It seems that when a writer gets a big trade/FA rumor wrong, there are always a bunch of other people reporting entirely different things. A lot of times everybody is wrong...but it's rare to see such a conspicuous lack of disagreement.

Also Olney may have ties to New England...but I don't think he's as untrustworthy as Globe/Herald writers. If one of them broke a story and cited a "Red Sox official" I'd be far less excited then I am now.

[nrmax88]

guardo i find your post funny and true. The yankee fans have gone into denial because this is the first time in recent memory that the yankees have bid on a player and there was even so much as a rumor they didnt get him. Like you said though, right now (in yanks fans eyes) this is a horrible ridiculous signing, and the redsox overpayed etc etc. Yankee fans first of all cant accuse anybody of overpaying for anyone. I normally would show some evidence of yankees overpaying their guys, but no need in this case. I also agree haha if the bid comes out and is actually yankees won the bidding with a 50 million dollar bid then all the sudden its an amazing move by the yanks. Good stuff Guardo

[Guardo369]

Glad someone read it and was actually enjoying it.

I already got ripped because I was shooting down people for discussing the rumor - Hey, I love rumors, that's why I'm here, and if you want to discuss the POSSIBILITY of the Red Sox getting him, cool, but people are running around like it's a done deal. Maybe I overreacted, but whatever. I still stand by what I said, especially about the whole Yankee fan reaction.

And by the way, Olney grew up in Vermont; He was a huge Dodgers fan, and he was a writer for both New York teams. So calling him a "suspect boston writer" isn't really fair. Maybe he loves the Sox, I wouldn't know, but a "boston writer" he most certainly is not.

[desturbd1]

Wasn't trying to rag on you bud...just explaining myself. Again, rather then preface everything I write with "if this rumor is true and if Boston does sign him," I just make the assumption and go from there. Seems easier. And I bet most of the people you seem irritated by would say the same.

And the Yankee fan reaction, that's spot on. Though it definately goes both ways; I remember hearing many of my fellow Boston fans scream to sign Pavano and then immediately rip New York after they got him.

Of course, I thought Pavano sucked and wanted nothing to do with him. Seriously. Like I remember arguing with my friends about it and then celebrating when NY got him, much to their chagrin. I then tried to talk myself into being happy with Clement, praying that Tek would help him hone his stellar stuff, but wasn't thrilled there either. Heh.

[ScottBrosius]

You guys are being much to hard on what I and other yankee fans have said.

I don't know anything, but the reports consistently state that the yankees did not bid nearly as much as any other team. So they clearly didn't value him as much - because they weren't willing to pay as much. That's what valuing is. Perhaps they miss-
valued him. Who knows. Either way, while I think he would have been a great signing if the yankees got him for 15 million + contract. But the numbers olney is citing are ridiculous. Given all the risks, I think that is way too much. And, if the yankees end up winning with a bid of 42 million, NO WAY IN HELL am I going to say it was a good signing. I didn't like the Jaret Wright deal, I didn't like the Randy Johnson trade. I actually thought the Pavano deal was good because he was the best pitcher on the market (red sox, tigers, Orioles wanted him at the same price). I don't blindly approve of all things Yankees. I really just call it how I see it.

"The yankee fans have gone into denial because this is the first time in recent memory that the yankees have bid on a player and there was even so much as a rumor they didnt get him."

Wrong. Remember Carlos Beltran? Very similar situation actually. mSame problem (too much money), same decision (he isn't worth it). Beltran was sub-par the first year, but he looks great now - and the Mets are doing really well. But, I'm still happy we didn't sign him - way too much money for too long. I learned my lesson from Giambi.

I also heard the Sox put out reports that they made going to make a ridiculous bid in order to get the yankees to over bid. Still, I have a feeling these reports are true and this guy will be wearing a B next year. But, like Kaz Matsui, it is a huge risk for can't miss money.

[desturbd1]

"I actually thought the Pavano deal was good because he was the best pitcher on the market"

More money is involved with Matsuzaka...but how is this situation any different? I personally don't value Zito or Schmidt above him, and they're the top 2 American FA's. Given that SP salaries are increasing every year...well, the more I think about it, the more I think that the $20-21 million per year it may cost if you include the posting fee may not be too far above what he's worth given this season's FA class. I mean I expect Zito's deal to fall in the 15-16 area...but I wouldn't be surprised to see it as high as 17, would you?

Even if he only gets $15 a year...if Boston went for Zito, I believe they'd be committed for around $21 million after luxury tax anyway. Admittedly, though, I'm not really sure of where their payroll stands right now. I also don't know how much of Matsuzaka's contract would be taxed, though I suspect per-year cost may be a mil or 2 above Zito's. Again, whether or not you would prefer Zito or Matsuzaka in this situation is simply a matter of preference; I just really feel like Matsuzaka's the investment with the most upside, well probably be the better pitcher as early as next season, and is in some ways a safer pick then Zito or Schmidt would be.

[ScottBrosius]

That I thought the pavano deal was good at the time doesn't mean I think it is good now. Yes, this isn't that different. And Pavano proved to be a disaster, perhaps the worst signing in the history of baseball if he doesn't come back these next two years. That suggests that paying 15 million long term for a pitcher, no matter how good he is, is prohibitively risky.

I don't think any pitcher is worth 20 million long term. A-Rod isn't worth 25 million long term, even though he has performed. Unless the pitcher is guaranteed to pitch like pedro in his prime, it is just too risky to pay a super-star pitcher long term top dollar money. See, e.g., Carl Pavano, Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Denny Neagle, Mike Hampton, Chan Ho Park, Kevin Appier, Pedro Martinez (Mets), A.J. Burnett.

Could Matsuzaka be the next Johan Santana, thrive in pressure-packed Boston, and dominate the A.L. east? Yea, he could. I'm pretty sure, in fact, that he'll be much better than average. I just don't think he'll be worth 21 million a year (i'm not sure anyone is) - and I certainly think it is a huge risk.

[desturbd1]

Heh, yeah it is a risk. But again, if you're right and he is much better then average...that means Boston probably recoups from Japan. Which, at least how I see it, reduces his per year cost because he'd be almost single-handedly boosting revenue.

But yeah, this may be the riskiest signing in years, if only because of how much money is involved. If he somehow doesn't pan out...Boston loses a nearly unprecedented amount of money. I still like it though...I think the odds of it working out are good, and if it goes well, Boston's in great shape long-term as well as short.

[YankeeBaseball]

I may be a Yankee fan, but I consider myself quite even handed. If another team makes a good move, I applaud it. If the Yanks make a dubious move, I pan it. Lately, the Yankee moves under Cashman have been very good in my opinion.

Surprisingly, I actually like the premise if Boston did indeed put out a huge bid. They can then offer say 7-10mil per over 5 years and have one of the best young pitchers locked up. And if Boras refuses, I have no doubt they could get some type of creative trade done where they get back excellent talent for basically the difference of their bid and another teams lower bid (i.e. 38mil-28mil=10mil). Even if neither of those scenarios pan out, matsu goes back to Japan and is not a Yankee. So I do see the logic of this scenario. Whether it is fact or fantasy remains to be seen...

[nrmax88]

gota agree they do certainly seem to be heading in the right direction in building a farm system, much to my dismay, but cashman is great. Even a small thing like aqquiring fasano looked ridiculous at the time, but thinking back im sure he knew he would aqquire either jon liever or corey lidle (RIP) from the phils, knowing it wold be nice to have a catcher with experience with either of these guys. As much as i despise all things yankees, i must admit cashman is doing a good job.

[nickjs21]

The fact of the matter is that in today's market, it's the pitchers who should be making A-Rod money. They're the most important aspect of every team and the majority of the budget should be spent on them. Boston is one of the teams that had to learn that the hard way last year. Add that to the well-discussed aspect of every TV in Japan tuning into NESN when Matsuzaka pitches, and I don't dislike this move (If it's true).

[walkoffblast]

Why are people comparing Kaz and Matsuzaka? Most scouts thought kaz had a high bust potential since he had lost some of his speed which was what made him great. One bust of a former japanese star does not mean they all will especially when the player was not even supposed to be the next great thing in MLB. Matsuzaka is that highly regarded right now and it is equally foolish to group him with kaz as it is to ignore the potential that has been proven possible by guys like ichiro. He is probably neither falling somewhere in between but would you rather pay a large sum of money for exclusive rights to a young quality pitcher with huge potential or trade 3 of your top prospects for an at least equally questionable older pitcher?

sidenote: as a red sox fan I would be really pissed if this all turned out to be wrong and against all reports (since apparently we cannot infer anything from repeated rumors) the yankees won the bidding. But how funny would it be to watch all these fans flip flop their positions on Matsuzaka faster than Johnny Damon can throw a baseball (ok bad example but you get the drift).