Thoughts On The Soriano Deal

Hi everyone, Tim here.  I thought I would check in briefly on this little contract that the Cubs have extended to Mr. Soriano.  I just can't resist.  The wedding yesterday was perfect; we're jetting off to Cancun on Tuesday.  I am a lucky man.  The lovely Mrs. Dierkes is all tuckered out after the big weekend, so here are some random thoughts.

From a Cubs fan point of view: I love the Alfonso Soriano signing.  As fans often say to justify insane contracts: "It's not my money; I just want to win."  I agree with that philosophy.  The Yankees might take some heat for the way they throw around cash, but I think that's rooted in jealousy.  One has to think Red Sox fans will back off on the Evil Empire stuff now that their team just bid $51.1 mil to talk to a pitcher.  Fans just want to win, right now.  Doesn't matter if Soriano is a $17MM bench warmer in 2014. 

I don't think anyone can believe it took eight years, though.  Six, for sure.  We figured the seventh year from someone might be the clincher.  But eight?  No one saw this coming.  But is this the worst contract ever, or whatever various blogs are claiming?  Of course not.  Todd Helton?  Even Darren Dreifort?  This is not the worst contract ever or anything close to that.  This is an athletic player who will probably age well.  Soriano has proven quite durable, and he's not anchored to first base.  This is premium offense for a position where a .440 SLG is above average.

Is Soriano one of those players who learns to take a walk as he enters his early 30s?  The Cubs are rolling the dice on that one.  A player doesn't nearly double his walk rate by accident, true, but one season doesn't necessarily indicate a trend.  If Soriano throws up a .310 OBP for the Cubs in 2007, well, this deal will look considerably worse.  We just don't know yet.

The second gamble for the Cubs is that Soriano can play a decent center field.  I think he can.  The tools are there; he should be above average by 2008.  Of course, I'm no scout, but it's not like someone is wishcasting Carlos Lee as a CF. 

Is the money really that crazy?  I don't think so.  Soriano may not be "worth it," but the supply of 40 HR center fielders consisted of only him.  The demand was huge, the dollars and desperation were there.  Comparing this to the Beltran and Guerrero contracts is silly.  To do so implies that the market has remained the same for three years.  What?  Come on now.  We all thought Derek Lowe at four years, $36MM was absurd.  All of us except Paul DePodesta.  Pitching exploded and it's a bargain now.  Manny's contract is looking OK now.  Soriano will never be a bargain.  But Andruw Jones could snag a contract next year at, say, $175MM over eight years.  Baseball is changing.

For once in this Cubs fan's life, the team appears to be pulling a 1997 Marlins: just going for broke.  Better living through free agency.  It's not a brilliant plan, and it's not an efficient way to build a long-term winner.  And yes, desperation is a large factor.  But there's no going back; the Cubs should drop another $15-18MM for two solid starters.

Bartman, the goat, Prior/Wood/Sammy - this crap is over.  Maybe Derrek Lee's wrist, Aramis Ramirez's "laziness", Soriano's OBP, and Zambrano's wildness will converge next year to make the Cubs a pricey 80 win team.  But even so, at least we can say for once that the Cubs are trying.  To quote Gammons:

"Admit it: The game is always healthier when the Cubs are good, and in a week they have made themselves a whole lot better."

Comments

[desturbd1]

Well put, can't really argue with you on this. Although I do wonder if $15-18MM is even enough to get 2 solid starters without trading for them...

[RotoAuthority]

I am thinking Padilla at $11MM, random #4 guy at $6-7MM. I think Rich Hill is a very capable #3.

[jskohl]

I'm definitely one jealous Dodger fan! Hey, 8 years is a lot, but at least the Cubbies are doing something!Meanwhile, in Dodgerland, we're losing JD Drew a.k.a Mr. Glass, and resigning another gimp in Nomar! Ned Colletti needs to wake up and smell the coffee. Look what they're doing in the windy city. Lee/Soriano/Ramirez - I am jealous!

[eeleye99]

Well if the contract is really 6 years with 2 option years they are ultimately up to the club at exorbitant prices, well then this deal is good. But 8 years, that could be throwing away $34 million over two years when Soriano might be a replacement level player. He's going to be good right now and for a few years, especially putting him in centre (please don't bat lead off, you really wanna waste 40+ homers). But we'll see once the contract details come out. He's a great ballplayer, but in 5 years don't see him beng as great as he is now.

[CubbieBlue66]

Soriano isn't playing CF.

Bruce Miles (the columnist closest to Hendry) has been saying that all day, and Sweet Lou was on WGN radio earlier tonight saying we were still looking for a CF.

Everything points to Murton in left and Soriano in right, with Jacque getting shipped off.

Maybe the JD Drew offer wasn't contingent on being the first to sign...

[bsox21]

Well put.

I know I like a blog when I have nothing to add.

= )

...and for once, I agree with Gammons.

Baseball is better when the Cubs are good.

[buddha]

No I can only pray for my Red Sox/Cubby World Series.

[RotoAuthority]

I would say we just don't know yet on his position. Paul Sullivan reported about an hour ago that he was expected to play CF. He is also fairly close to the Cubs. I like the deal a lot less if he's not in CF.

Don't agree with the replacement level thought...I really don't think a 38-39 year old Soriano would be on par with a minor league free agent or whatever.

[bsox21]

Those were the same guys that were saying Alou would be a sack of body parts by now.

Alou happens to be MASHING right now, and probably will continue to mash for at least a couple more years.

Some guys can jus keep playing, and sori is one of those guys.

As Roto said, it's pretty obvious that Sori will age well.

[desturbd1]

I'm curious...does the Drew to the Cubs rumor have any weight to it? The only place I've seen it is that Cubs blog...

[Paul AKA twinsfan]

I was wondering If Tim would be able to stay away with this news Of Sori signing. The Cubs actually trying to get better and getting married in one week Good week to be you.

[CubbieBlue66]

Paul Sullivan pretends to be a lot closer to the Cubs than he really is.

At any rate, I'm inclined to believe it when Lou Pinella says that they're still looking for a CF, like he did on the radio tonight. (And yes, I wasn't a fan of the deal before, and I think it's even worse now that we know he's in right)

[quintjs]

.277 .351 .560 .911
Av. OBP. SLG OPS
46 HR 95 RBI 119R

Can I ask a simple question, Are you paying 17million a year for that, or 17million because you think the guy can produce more?

I would never give this guy any more than 5 years, you just cannot say for certain he will continue to produce

Here is the thing, Yankees fans justify 200million, Red Sox fans justify a 51million bid of Matsuzaka, Cubs fans will justify this.

We will always defend our teams, up to the point it makes no sense.

7 years for 100million for Pujols - what a bargain.

[bsox21]

quint,

Sori just went 40-40-40 and almost went 40-40 twice in Yankees stadium, on baseball's biggest stage and in one of baseball's toughest HR parks for righties.

He just lead all of baseball in assists in his FIRST SEASON in LF.

He has proven as durable as anyone else in the game.

He is only 31 Yrs old.

If you aren't going to give it to him, then who are you going to give it to?

Also, if you pass on Pujols, you have lots of fall back plans at 1B. If you wait til FEBRUARY, you can probably STILL find at least an .825 OPS hitter to cover 1B for you.

Sori's stats even in the OF, are ELITE.

Sori's stats at ANY position, are ELITE.

Stop trying to pretend you understand the business of baseball.

I will guarantee that you have no clue what the team revenues were for ANY of the teams in baseball.

Without that crucial variable, how in the world do you profess to be able to make ANY type of evaluation of the prudence of this transaction?

Forget Pujols....

AJ Burnett, Darren Dreifort?

Compared to these guys, Sori's deal is a STEAL.

[quintjs]

Compared to Burnett, any contract is a steal. I am not a career losing pitcher like Burnett, where are my millions? (he is 59-58 now thanks to a 10-8 season in 2006)

Soriano's outfield assits will drop now that all teams are aware he is capable of.

Soriano is a great player, 40/40/40 is more about media than achievement. I mean its great, incredible, but not much different than 40-37-36 which would have got no attention.

I would love him on my team for a 4-5 year deal. But 17million for a guy each of 8 years (avg)?? He is 31, which is 38 when its done?

Its not the money, its the years. History shows you can get stuck with these types of deals, unable to do anything about the player

Sometimes they manage to produce something (Giambi) or nothing like some of the deals mentioned - before people complain, i mean Giambi from a couple of years ago, when he never played, and when he did he hit 190 or something.

If Soriano stops producing, or regresses to previous levels, The cubs are stuck with him.

It is not like Soriano has always produced at these high levels, 2006 was his best year - easily. Somthing about contract years? While he hit career high levels, he also hit a career high in Strike outs - which is saying something.

As i said, people will always justify these deals based upon where their support lies.

[bsox21]

40-37-36 would be worth this price too....

I'm a mets fan and I think this is a good signing you dumbass.

Sori hasnt produced at these high levels?

how about 39-41 with a .879 OPS in Yankees stadium in 2002?

Not convinced?

How about 38-35 with a .863 OPS at 2B in Yankees stadium in 2005?

No?

How about 36-30 in 2005?

Name TWO players that compare?

The problem with guys like you is not only are you dumb, but you THINK you're smart.

That makes your stupidity exponentially worse.

[Boylanca]

Heres what I think of it. The Cubs are going to have a great offense for three years. That is if everyone can stay healthy. They lost pierre, so the SBs wont really change, but they will gain some pop in the lineup. Another problem is they got another HR or K guy to add to their lineup. But, Soriano likely wont be able to win the Cubs 30 more games.

Heres where it gets interesting. The cubs Will be paying soriano 17mil when he's 35,36,37,38. If you ask me that sounds like another sammy sosa. Sori is going to be 31 once the season starts. Thats too many years and too much money to be giving a 31 year old. He will be making 2mil a year more then Pujols for cryin out loud. The cubs should have re-signed peirre then used the rest of the $$ on pitching. Lets face it, Soriano cant throw a 95 mph fastball with a knee buckling curve... which is more what the cubs need right now.

[Boylanca]

Soriano's numbers the two years before last are

.274 32HR 95RBI 24SB

They better hope he plays like he did one year in wash as opposed to two in Tex.

[miltie]

It should be noted that Soriano's OBP is 340 when batting in the lead-off spot. That's higher than Juan Pierre's obp for the last two years and right there with Dave Roberts' career obp. That is adequate for a lead-off hitter. When that is combined with the 40-40-40 numbers it makes him way more than adequate.

Does anyone have any details on the options at the end of the contract? I heard the last two years are mutual options and that they are incentive laden. If that's the case I don't see how anyone can complain about this signing. 6 years guaranteed at 92 million is slightly over 15 million a year. Can anybody really argue that a player who arguably had the best year in baseball history for a lead-off hitter isn't worth that much?

[MFine]

I'm not sure who the other HR/K guys are you are talking about? Are you talking about J. Jones (possibly platooning this year) and Cedeno (possible that DeRosa is playing second). Nobody else on the team had over 63 strikeouts.

[Dev0]

Well while I think this is all a big deal and whatever, I think the biggest story out of this will be what does Lee and Wells command now.
Wells is 3 years younger the Soriano and produces just about asmuch, plus add 3 gold gloves in arow.

I think its safe to say Wells will be delt, however unlike most people I think it might be around the trade deadline and dependent on position.

[bobo]

bsox (or anyone else) - I'm still undecided about whether this is a good deal or not. We knew the market for pitchers has gone crazy, but I guess this is the first indication that's blown up for hitters as well.

However - calling Soriano's stats "ELITE" is absurd (I guess depending on your definition of elite). Someone called him one of the 5 or 10 best hitters in baseball, and I'm still laughing.

If he's not in CF, this is a pretty bad deal. Maybe even awful. In CF, you can justify it by saying "we were going for it, and we got the best available player." I guess.

[armystrong]

If the Cubs really want to win now and go for broke they need to pony up the bucks. Let Sori play 2B, sign 2 good starters or sign 1 and trade for Jennings, sign Drew to play center, and trade for A Rod from New York to play SS. Include in the trade Cedeno , Guzman, and Izturz. Just think of the lineup.
2B-Sori
CF-Drew
1B-Lee
SS-A Rod
3B-Ramirez
RF-Jones
C-Barrett
LF-Murton
Of course that could be changed around a bit.
World Series, Here comes the Cubs.

[nrmax88]

bobo how can soriano not be elite? He just made history, as some1 stated, HE IS THE 40 40 40 CLUB. Why is it a better deal if hes playing CF? I say its a way better deal if hes not playing center. How can you say he is the best CF available when he hasnt played a day of CF? Army strong thats funny. If you want to give up ARAM and or Zambrano then sure, go get AROd. I seriously hope you dont think Soriano will make the cubs a World series contender this year. Yeah it helps a lot, but these things dont happen over night, especially with only 1 established starter. Ok heres my take on what you said. Any team that signs 2 good starting pitchers, JD Drew, Alfonso Soriano, and Arod in one offseason, and already had an ace the likes of Zambrano is an immediate world series contender. What your not taking in is what you will need to give up for A Rod, lets just say it will be slightly more then jacque jones. Guzman, cedeno and and izturis wouldnt even be anywhere close to enough. At all. Atleast my opinion. What the hell do the yankees want with a shitty 2b/ SS, another shitty 2b/ SS, and a 25 year old pitcher who hasnt ever won a game. Not saying he cant be good, but the only way the cubs can even talk about Arod is if they offer up Zambrano or Ramirez, or both.

[nrmax88]

armystrong quite frankly, the trade u proposed would be like the mets offering julio franco, ramon castro, and alay soler for carlos zambrano. HA Cedeno izturis and guzman for arod? HA!!

[armystrong]

I just said include those players. Of course you're going to need more that what I put. Duh. Here's the solution: Sign Zito and Schmit and include them in the trade. It's simple. Man, I should be a GM. And I'm through.

[pedroia2007]

Tim, come on now

You really think Red Sox fans only call the Yankees-- The Evil Empire because of their profile?? How about their desire to lure former Red Sox players to wear pinstripes? From Rogers Clemens to the lowly Mark Bellhorn. I mean cmon they even tried to block the Mirabelli to Boston trade and he's just a backup catcher. Maybe its only something a Red Sox fan can truely understand.

[nrmax88]

i am a met fan pedroia and i understand u buddy lol. Goddam yankees. They arent called the evil empire for nothin. And its funny the yankees come up in a post where people are discussing soriano overpayed. This whole market ( the everyone makes way more money then their worth), all because of the yankees. The yanks spent so much money on ever guy they signed, that other teams had no choice except to spend big money to try to keep up. All after effects of yankees money spending. Just my opinion

[pedroia2007]

You guys should get an "EDIT" option on these message boards here

I didnt mean to say profile in the first sentence, i was referring to fact that many outside of Red Sox/Yankee fans believe the Sox only call the Yankeesm the Evil Empire because of their payroll is dead wrong.

[nrmax88]

army heres a though, how bout u go sign zito and schmidt and dont trade them? crazy huh? How bout u sign schmidt and zito and put them in your shitty ass rotation and then u can have a good ass rotation? But your right though, you should definitely sign 2 good pitchers and trade them for another bat, and jus forget about the shitty ass pitching. Who needs it? Yea, you could definitely be a GM

[desturbd1]

"It should be noted that Soriano's OBP is 340 when batting in the lead-off spot. That's higher than Juan Pierre's obp for the last two years and right there with Dave Roberts' career obp. That is adequate for a lead-off hitter."

Only if your definition of leadoff hitter is "the fastest guy on the team." A true leadoff man gets on at at at least a .360 clip; look at Damon, Sizemore, hell, Kevin Youkilis. It's his job to get on at a high percentage...and .340 isn't much better then league average. Sori belongs somewhere in the 3-5 range; his power is a bigger asset then his speed.

And again, Bsox, quit being such a condescending prick. It's entirely possible to argue a point without namecalling...

[walkoffblast]

Depending on the options it should be a decent deal. I do not want to rain on the Cub fans parade because this will be a good signing for the next 3 years or so for sure, but there are a lot of ifs. Sit back and analyze why the argument that since Soriano is athletic he will age well pops up in every post justifying the signing. It is there because Soriano's athletic ability, specifically his speed, is a trait he cannot lose or he simply will not be worth his paycheck. If he slows down all he will be is another power hitting corner outfielder sacrificing average for power. Obviously his 40 HR potential is nothing to scoff at so this analysis is somewhat worse case scenario but my main point is I am seeing too many best case scenarios passed off as probable outcomes of the signing.

[Kyle]

Ok, first to Pedroia and NrMax, I dont think that is a fair criticism of the Yankees. First off the Yankees and Red Sox constantly battle back and forth and do stupid things. Remember when the Red Sox rented out an entire hotel so Contreras couldnt meet with the Yankees? The Yankees went after Bellhorn because they were in desperate need of a second baseman and he had good OBP skills. NrMax the Yankees aren't really responsible for the boom in salaries. The Red Sox gave Manny 8 yrs 160 million, the Rangers gave A-Rod 10 yrs 252, the Rockies gave Mike Hampton and Todd Helton those awful contracts. The only big deals the Yankees have handed out to free agents were Giambi and Mussina. Other than that most of their immense payroll has went to signing their home grown players to long term deals and taking on other teams bad contracts. This is a cubs post though why do the Yankees need to be mentioned other than to say "Soriano had good stats while on the Yankees"

Now on to Soriano, Soriano is a very good player. However he is not a top 10-15 player in this league. If he seamlessly converts to centerfield and plays good defense for all 8 years of the deal than this is a good deal. I also agree with people that if this is only a 6 yr deal with options it becomes a lot better looking.

To anyone who brought up Sorianos assist total, please throw that stat away it is worthless. Assists are a product of being an unknown quantity and having some arm strength. He got all those assists because teams assumed he would take a bad route on the ball and consistently ran on him. This season he was a slightly above average left fielder. He is a complete unknown in center. He does have good speed and a solid arm so I expect him to be at least average.

If the Cubs end up batting Soriano first they will be making a serious mistake though. He strikes out way too much. I would stick him right in front of Derek Lee to assure he gets a lot of fastballs to hit.

To sum it up, Soriano is a very good player and if the deal is 6 years it is an ok deal. However if all eight years are guaranteed this deal is bad. Not one of the worst of all time just a bad deal. He will make the Cubs have a lot more power but he will not help them in the areas where they had glaring weaknesses, he doesnt help the pitching, he wont help the fielding much, and he wont help the teams lack of OBP. The Cubs next season will smack a lot of homers and not walk much at all. They have a shot at the playoffs with this combo simply due to how poor the NL Central is. If I was Hendry I would have just signed Dave Roberts to play center and spent the rest of the money to get Gil Meche and Jason Schmidt.

Nobody can truly judge this deal yet though. Soriano could take to center and play above average defense, this OBP spike could be real and he could put up a .350 OBP and be close to 40/40 for each year of the contract in which case it is a very good deal. If these things dont happen and he starts hitting .280/.325/.510 again and his defense falls apart this deal will handcuff whatever GM takes over for Jim Hendry.

[NYs Maine Man]

Ahhhh, nothing like consumating one's marriage, then hopping on the 'ole net to blog about Alfonso Soriano. Tim, you are an icon.

[nrmax88]

kyle i wasnt criticizing the yankees for spending a lot of money im just saying thats a huge reason why the market today is overpaying every player. The yankees started all of that, you cant argue that

[Dave]

I like Soriano in the 2 hole as well...but I like him leadoff, as well. Normally that kind of slugging pct would be better down in the order, but he's got a career .231 BA w/RISP, so relative to him as player it makes some sense. I'm not sure what his contact ratio is, but I would assume if he's missing 160 times a year that it would be slightly lower, a troubling stat for a number 2 hole hitter (someone like Juan Pierre would be perfect...but that's a whole other post).

I like the signing, but I think the bigger picture for the Cubs is obviously pitching.

As for his fielding, I agree that SOME of his assists were the result of teams testing his arm, but I don't think it took more than a few of those throws before word gets around. No doubt that could be the difference between his leading the league and simply being on par with the other 'top' arms. Even if he drops 10 assists he's still right up there...with his athleticism I see him progressing in the outfield. The Cubs just need to get him a big ole' outfielder's glove with some extra padding to protect the stones he's got for hands...

I sincerely hope he is NOT playing right field at Wrigley. It's arguably one of the hardest right fields in the game...not a good place to learn.

It's very important to look 8 years down the road, but the plan, like it or not, is to win now. If they even get to a World Series in the next 2 years I'll take it as a success. I've seen so many crappy seasons from this team I don't care if they have another few down the road, but if it gets us to the playoffs now, anything can happen and I'll live with it.

[bobo]

Why is Soriano not elite? Because he's simply not one of the top hitters, let alone players, in the game. I'm sure I could easiliy name 10-15 hitters I'd prefer to him, and another 10-15 that are damn close, if not better.

Others have mentioned it, but the 40-40-40 thing is meaningless. Is His steals have little to no value at his SB%, and his defense is a big question mark.

Bottom line, if you want to quote extra-base hit numbers as proof of Soriano's value, you should be looking solely at slugging, and Soriano is very good, but barely cracked the top 10 in the NL. Or you can get an even more accurate sense of his offensive production and see that his OPS was 26th in MLB (and keep in mind that both his OBP and SLG were career highs).

The only chance he has of being a real top 10 player is if his defense in CF is good - a big if.

Maybe, like others have said, the walk rate is for real, and he'll continue the trend. If his OBP starts to approach .400, then you've got a good deal. But $136M is a ton of money to place that bet with.

[miltie]

"Only if your definition of leadoff hitter is "the fastest guy on the team." "

No. My definition of lead-off hitter is someone who gets on base and has speed. Someone like, .....Alfonso Soriano.

And Damon has a career OBP of 351. I'll take the 10 point drop in obp with a significant increase in every other category over Damon who is getting 13 mill.

And if the last 2 years are mutual options, why is everyone sweating this? What did you expect him to go for?

[miltie]

"A true leadoff man gets on at at at least a .360 clip"

Isn't that actually pretty high for a lead-off hitter. I might be wrong but I thought Soriano ended up finishing 5th or 6th in the league among leadoff hitters in OBP with the 351. Anyone know where he ranked last year exactly?

[GordoJ52]

And it is official, Soriano has passed his physical and is signed, signed his deal this afternoon, BUT get this, while no one knows about the option years and such and the score has backed off their thing about it being only 95 guaranteed, we'll have to see when it's announced. BUT CUBS FANS, congrats, tomorrow 3:30 p.m. the Cubs have scheduled a press conference to announce....the resigning of Aramis Ramirez. What's that about?

Jeff

[GordoJ52]

I spoke too soon guys, it is official, he is signed, but he took a flight back to Miami after signing and passing his physical and will be announced sometime next week. Tomorrow's press conference is for Aramis and how about the Cubs on the verge of signing Cliff Floyd? They are saying they are putting Soriano in Right, Murton/Floyd in Left and Jacque in Center? Trade Jacque and go get a center fielder. Cubs Payroll right now? 102 papers were incorrcect this morning.

Link to story about Soriano at Wrigley and Floyd.

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-061120cubssoriano,1,288880.story?coll=cs-home-headlines

[desturbd1]

Mittie- Uhh...Soriano's career obp overall is .325. Yeah, it's .340 out of the leadoff spot, but only because of the season he had this year. If you think Soriano's doubled walk rate is going to be permanent, then fine, there's a case to be made for him batting leadoff. On the flip side, though, he reached a career high in strikeouts and, for a leadoff man, is still a free swinger.

As for his ranking in OBP among leadoff men...I don't know, I was wondering about that myself. But I'd point out that that's a fairly meaningless statistic considering how many teams still let guys like Juan Pierre leadoff...solely because of his speed. Also when I said "true leadoff man" I guess I meant "elite" leadoff man." Meaning there aren't too many guys who reach that status. My bad for being unclear.

My main point was that if you can get a guy who posts an obp comparable to what Soriano will give you, it makes more sense to bat him leadoff and let Soriano hit 3rd or 4th. You're right, assuming the obp jump is permanent, in that Sori could bat first and he does bring more to the table then the typical leadoff man. But I think his bat's more useful where he'll get the most RBI opportunities and be afforded the best protection...I.E, ahead of D. Lee. Ignoring the fact that the entire lineup would be right-handed...I'd consider batting Aramis Ramirez 2nd, (doesn't strike out a whole lot) Sori 3rd, Lee 4th, and Barrett 5th.

I'd point out that hitting leadoff for the Nats, Soriano had 46 homers...and only 95 RBI. THIRTY of his homers came with the bases empty. He actually had great averages with runners on...he just didn't have many opportunities. Now the bottom of the Nats order was pretty inept...but it's not like the Cubs' will be that much better. I just don't get how leading off would be a a good utilization of the guy's power. And since the only way this signing makes any sense is if 2006 wasn't a total fluke, I think we can expect his career numbers with runners on base to jump, as they did last season.

[miltie]

"Mittie- Uhh...Soriano's career obp overall is .325. Yeah, it's .340 out of the leadoff spot, but only because of the season he had this year."

Not quite. Looking back at his #'s there have been only two other years where Soriano has consistently batted lead-off. Those other years were 2002 and 2003. In 2002 the OBP was 329 and in 2003 the OBP was 342, two points higher than his career average. 2006 it was 368. His career OBP gets dragged down b/c of his #'s outside of the Leadoff spot and b/c of at bats in the lead-off spot where he isn't batting in that spot in the line-up consistently. Granted it's only three years, but there is an upward climb when it comes to his OBP and his playing leadoff consistently. He' played it 3 years consistently and he's improved every year. Again, I understand it's only three years. If anything it shows that the guy knows how to adjust when he gets into the lead-off spot.

[DentalPlan]

Okay let's face it - this contract probably won't look bad any time soon but I think it's going to be an albatross for years to come.

The difference between the Cubs and the Yankees is that the Yankees aren't going to run out of money. The Cubs conceivably could be faced with that in a year or two, sort of like the Phillies and Rangers were a few years ago - budget maxed out, stuck at 75-83 wins perpetually with no money for improvement.

Soriano is pretty much unquestionably the worst player making this kind of money, his 2004 and 2005 in Texas were uninspiring for certain.

This is the kind of big, splashy Mo Vaughn type deal that gets casual fans excited with the idea that something is being done but can sink an entire franchise for years. Furthermore I don't even see this move making the team a better offensive one than they were in 2004, and the pitching was a lot better than too. So who are they? Looking at their pitching options, I don't see a highly successful team, and Cubs fans should've learned it's a mistake to assume the division stays uncompetitive from one year to the next (in 2003 they made that assumption about 2004 and guess what - the division got more competitive).

But the rational among us will not be proven right until about the 4th year of the deal I anticipate. Until then, they don't have a murderer's row by far, they have a decent offense.

[nrmax88]

desturbd just a question, who do you think is an elite leadoff man? Not trying to be an asshole but just a serious question, jose reyes? Johnny damon? Reyes had an obp of 355 and damon of 359, i would consider them 2 of the best in that category (leadoff hitters). Obviously Ichiro is probably the best leadoff guy, and has a .370 obp clip, but he is a freak and there arent to many like him. Sizemore is also at a 375 clip, and only a 290 average, so he walks a lot, but also K'd 153 times. Soriano's numbers were a tad lower then sizemores in avg and obp, but more steals and HRs, and about the same amount of Ks. Every leadoff hitter is a different breed, so its tough to say whos elite and who isnt, but i agree he would be much better utilized batting 3 4 or 5

[DentalPlan]

What's also stupid about this deal is that Jim Hendry doesn't seem to be negotiating. 4 days ago the report was that Soriano was looking for 7 years, $120 million. Does Jim Hendry negotiate at all? Does it take any sort of particular talent once you're backed my money to say "Tell you what - I'll give you a blank check and you sign it." It doesn't appear like there was any effort to negotiate or talk Soriano down. Was some other team offered 7/119? Not even close it appears.

This is all fun and games until Soriano can't hang in left field or you see the crap pitching the Cubs trot out there. Then maybe delirious enthusiasm will be tempered.

[miltie]

"So who are they? Looking at their pitching options, I don't see a highly successful team, and Cubs fans should've learned it's a mistake to assume the division stays uncompetitive from one year to the next (in 2003 they made that assumption about 2004 and guess what - the division got more competitive). "

I don't think anyone is saying this changes much as far as their standing in the division go. It makes the Cubs better offensively than last years team. But last year's team was not bad offensively at least in the second half of the season.

Where the Cubs end up next year will depend on what Hendry does to the pitching staff. Even with Soriano I don't see this team finishing higher than second or 3rd without doing anything with starting pitching. I don't think anyone on the board would disagree with you there and i don't think anyone has said otherwise.

[nrmax88]

Dentalplan i understand what your saying. Being a met fan thinking back on mo vaughn i was probably 14 or 15 at the time, and remembering my reaction now, i thought... YES we go mo vaughn, because mo vaughn was a big name at the time, but i didnt realize that eventually he would suck, because he was getting old and has bad legs. I used to feel bad for big mo haha watching him backpeddle to try to catch a popup behind first base. Almost everytime he fell backwards and ended up on his back. But anyway yeah i see your point, soriano should be able to stay more healthy then mo but in the long run, he might just be one of these guys the cubbies are stuck with, and cant get rid of. Mo vaughn, jeremy burnitz, robbie alomar type mets signings of 5 or 6 years ago remind me of this, because they didnt pan out and like u said, sunk the mets franchise for a while. Luckily, the mets traded kazmir, yeah i said it. Luckily, that was the last straw of the phillips duquette regime and finally got out from under all those contracts and were able to start over. That being said, if soriano doesnt put up big numbers the cubs could be in big trouble, but they will be anyway if they dont get some arms into their rotation.

[thenuge]

I was wondering if anyone else has noticed an interesting trend for Soriano.

Over the course of the past three seasons, Soriano has hit more fly balls every year, and has also had a higher percentage of those fly balls become home runs, both extremely good indicators of future increases in power.

GB/FB
2004- 0.73
2005- 0.69
2006- 0.56

HR/FB
2004- 12%
2005- 14.5%
2006- 18%

Now maybe Soriano tops off there, but if that trend continues, look out NL. When you take into account that half of Soriano's 2006 ABs came at RFK which is deadly for right-handed hitters, you have to like the pending transition to Wrigley.

Can you say 50 HRs?

[allabouthephils]

I don't know where to begin when you start talking about 50 homers. This guy is a great player but come on, 50 ??? Not only will he be one of the most carefully pitched to players in the league next year (next to Ryan Howard and Albert Pujols) but he strikes out way to often in a lineup that is predominately right handed. I like Soriano and I like what he brings to the Cubs but lets not get carried away here. The only reason his groundball to flyball ratio has gone up the last few seasons is because he hit a few homers and got some recognition as a homerun hitter. I would expect descent numbers, but this guy isn't a center piece. He got alot of money but as Davy Lopes said, Soriano is a great player but not a guy who is a centerpiece. He might be the missing link but not the main link. I like him, but you overspent and I have a feeling this will get ugly in a few years. I'm not talking angrily because the Phillies didn't get him. I'm just stating from opinion and past history, that contracts of this magnitude usually end up being busts. The expectations are always through the roof as they are now with the Cubs fans in here. He will have a few good seasons and then pull an A-Rod or a Mo Vaughn. He might pull an Albert Belle, or a Jim Thome. He may even pull one of my favorites, a Darren Driefort or maybe a Jason Giambi. Or he just might be the next Derek Jeter ( but I wouldn't count on it). Good luck Cubs fans I think you're gonna need it.

[ScottBrosius]

Please, please, please do not equate leading the league in assists with being a great outfielder.

Sori also had 11 errors which I think the NYT said lead to the 2nd worst fielding % in the league. A lot of his assists were from runners challenging his arm and from balls bouncing around in Washington. I don't think he's a bad OF, but his defense is still, for the most part, a liability, ESPECIALLY if they move him to 2B

[Bonatom]

Do you think you Will live long enough to see the first $1 Billion Dollar Player? 10 Years? 20 Years? 50 Years?

[Kyle]

Lets look at Soriano's projection for next season. Bill James projects him at:
.275/.331/.522 644 AB 177 H 41 2B 38 HR 105 R 95 RBI 46 BB 146 K 31 SB

Those projections are for playing in RFK for half his games. The switch to Wrigley will boost some of his statistics. Also using Bill James Park Factors I get a line for Sori of :

.282/.338/.567 644 AB 182 H 46 2B 45 HR 112 R 95 RBI 47 BB 156 K 31 SB

If Soriano had put up that line this season it would have ranked out of centerfielders 9th in BA, 12th in OBP, 2nd in slugging, 5th in Hits, 2nd in doubles, 1st in homers 12th in walks, and 2nd in strikeouts. Basically with Sori you trade plate discipline for power and speed.

If Soriano can play enough defense to play centerfield he will be a top 3 or 4 centerfielder in baseball, however I doubt his defense will translate. In a corner outfield spot he isnt much special and those K's will become more of an issue.

I also find it funny that a teams whos biggest problem is OBP seems to not like Matt Murton at all. Murton should be your leadoff man next year and he should play every day.

[feelthebyrne]

Haha 1 billion dollar player? Nope i dont think so. As for soriano goes..la wouldve been his best bet hittin between figgins n vladdy or whoever we trade for. We offered more guaranteed money than the cubbies did but wutever. As long as the angels dnt blow away their farm system then im cool bout soriano to chicago. Hes worth the 6/95 just keep him in the OF. O and signin floyd will make this team that much better! I gotta admit im kinda worried bout them cubbies...

[GordoJ52]

Let's go by last years numbers and look at our starting lineup for next year for OBP

Barret - .368
Lee - .368
Derosa - .357
Izturis - .295
Ramirez - .352
Jones - .334
Soriano - .351
Murton - .365

Besides Izturis I really don't see too much of a problem, do you?

[ptk420biatch]

Seems to be a lot of jealousy here. For a lot of you non cubs fans it is such a horrible deal because it wasnt a cheap deal you wish your teams could have signed him for.

[feelthebyrne]

No im just wondering. y the cubs??

[bobo]

$1B man?

Based on a couple overly simple assumptions (a $200M player is reasonable today, the inflation rate is 4%, and salaries increase at the inflation rate), we're looking at 41 years or so.

[bsox21]

Bill James has actually managed to make a whole legion of baseball fans dumber.

[ptk420biatch]

Feelthebyrne, why not the cubs? Who wouldnt sign for that much money?

[nrmax88]

thenuge i think soriano may well blast 50 homers this year, or atleast challenge 50. Kyle how does sorianos HRs increase by 7 and his rbi stay the same? jus wondering. Allaboutthephils, depending on where soriano hit in the lineup, he can hit 50. If he is infront of DLee and or ARAm, then im not sure how many teams will pitch around him, i wouldnt say 50 is out of the question. Haha feelthebyrne is just upset and jealous because now his plan of getting soriano, zito, schmidt, wells, andruw jones, and brian roberts is ruined lol. ptk i agree, lots of jealousy, but i still dont think this makes the cubs much better a team as a whole. Add some quality starters then yeah we can talk. Lineup is looking pretty good, but not great. I think jones needs to be moved and a leadoff caliber OF should be brought in. Dave roberts?
Leadoff batter
Derosa
Lee
Soriano
A Ram
Barrett
Murton
Izturis

Not a bad lineup at all if a good table setter is brought in to bad leadoff cuz sori wont give u full value from the 1 spot.
Another problem is the cubbies are LOADED with righties, but its a work in progress

[nrmax88]

thenuge i think soriano may well blast 50 homers this year, or atleast challenge 50. Kyle how does sorianos HRs increase by 7 and his rbi stay the same? jus wondering. Allaboutthephils, depending on where soriano hit in the lineup, he can hit 50. If he is infront of DLee and or ARAm, then im not sure how many teams will pitch around him, i wouldnt say 50 is out of the question. Haha feelthebyrne is just upset and jealous because now his plan of getting soriano, zito, schmidt, wells, andruw jones, and brian roberts is ruined lol. ptk i agree, lots of jealousy, but i still dont think this makes the cubs much better a team as a whole. Add some quality starters then yeah we can talk. Lineup is looking pretty good, but not great. I think jones needs to be moved and a leadoff caliber OF should be brought in. Dave roberts?
Leadoff batter
Derosa
Lee
Soriano
A Ram
Barrett
Murton
Izturis

Not a bad lineup at all if a good table setter is brought in to bad leadoff cuz sori wont give u full value from the 1 spot.
Another problem is the cubbies are LOADED with righties, but its a work in progress

[nrmax88]

thenuge i think soriano may well blast 50 homers this year, or atleast challenge 50. Kyle how does sorianos HRs increase by 7 and his rbi stay the same? jus wondering. Allaboutthephils, depending on where soriano hit in the lineup, he can hit 50. If he is infront of DLee and or ARAm, then im not sure how many teams will pitch around him, i wouldnt say 50 is out of the question. Haha feelthebyrne is just upset and jealous because now his plan of getting soriano, zito, schmidt, wells, andruw jones, and brian roberts is ruined lol. ptk i agree, lots of jealousy, but i still dont think this makes the cubs much better a team as a whole. Add some quality starters then yeah we can talk. Lineup is looking pretty good, but not great. I think jones needs to be moved and a leadoff caliber OF should be brought in. Dave roberts?
Leadoff batter
Derosa
Lee
Soriano
A Ram
Barrett
Murton
Izturis

Not a bad lineup at all if a good table setter is brought in to bad leadoff cuz sori wont give u full value from the 1 spot.
Another problem is the cubbies are LOADED with righties, but its a work in progress

[nrmax88]

again, sorry about the duplicate posts, dont know why this shit keeps happening

[thenuge]

Hey allaboutthephils- Please explain this.

"The only reason his groundball to flyball ratio has gone up the last few seasons is because he hit a few homers and got some recognition as a homerun hitter."

Please tell me how the hell that explains Soriano hitting more flyballs and having a much greater percentage of those flyballs become homeruns? Contrary to your belief, this is conclusive evidence that Soriano is actually IMPROVING. Now like I said, Fonzi very well might top off at that level, but when you consider that trend, and his home ballpark, I seriously don't think that 50 homeruns is out of the question.

Also, I think pitching around Soriano will be tough when you consider that either/both DLee and ARam will be hitting behind him. Not to mention the fact that Soriano is one of the best bad ball hitters in the game. If Howard can hit 58, I say Soriano gets exactly 50. Not exactly a scientific projection, but a hunch.

[bsox21]

don't forget that if u pitch arond sori and he gets on, you have one of the best base runners/stealers in the game on the bases now.

Sori is 1000% bonafide monster, and u have an army of idiots on this board that cant see that after watching this guy dominate for years....

[feelthebyrne]

Haha not jealous n not once did i think we wood get all those players, just sum. O i still think we will get zito and then trade for EITHER jones, wells, man ram, OR tejada. Again not jealous just envious.

[allabouthephils]

Well, maybe he will hit 50. I honestly don't know how hitting more homeruns and striking out the most times in his career means he's improving. I think that means he is swinging harder and trying to hit homeruns all the time. Alah Dave Kingman. Just to clarify, I am not comparing Dave Kingman to Alfonso Soriano. But, striking out the most time you've ever struck out and hitting the most homeruns in your career means you are trying to hit a homerun every time your at bat. 8 years @ 136MM for a guy who strikes out and hits homeruns. Doesn't Pat Burrell do that ?

[walkoffblast]

I am not sure how this move and DeRosa makes the Cubs a World Series contender. Granted Lee was hurt for a good portion of the season but the Cubs had the worst record in the NL last year. They cannot just stop here and think they are going to even make the playoffs. As long as they are dependent on miraculous injury free seasons from wood and prior they are in a lot of trouble. Like Tim suggested in the orignal post they have to go the extra mile and sign some more pitching. Hopefully for Cubs fans they have the money left to do it after this beast of a contract. Texas was in last place before they got Arod, they were in last place with Arod. Soriano is no Arod.

Also everyone talks about how this deal makes Manny look a lot better in the trade market but no one seems to mention Tejada. In an already week SS market how good is a cleanup bat looking at 12 mil next year and 13 mil the year after looking.

[bobo]

Did anyone watch Soriano much this past season? How was he pitched? Specifically, how often did he get breaking stuff low and away?

What I remember from his time with the Yankees is this: He crushes fastballs, but EVERYONE knew that in crucial situations, just throw him slider down and away and he'll whiff. Has this changed? I suspect not, given his K totals.

Another thing - 18.3% of flyballs were HR in 06 (way up from his previous years). I don't know much about that but I know Tim in his 2nd Tier Starters post normalized HR allowed for pitchers to a 10.8%.

If the same holds true for hitters, his HR totals from 06 could be pretty fluky.

Then again, Ryan Howard is at 39.5%!!!! That is almost 10% higher than anyone else. Would you believe he hits more ground balls than fly balls?

[bobo]

bsox, if you think that Soriano has "dominated for years", I can only wonder which sport you've been watching...

[thenuge]

Dude allabouthephils- Please don't talk on this board anymore. You don't know anything.

Maybe you won't compare Soriano to Dave Kingman, but you'll go ahead and compare him the Pat Burrell. Sure Pat Burrell does that...except not nearly as well. Burrell isn't in the same universe of talent as Soriano.

And contrary to common belief, Soriano's strikeouts are really not a big deal at all. Research has shown that as long as power comes with these strikeouts (which in Soriano's case it certainly does), it really doesn't have any more of a negative effect than if someone were to just fly out or ground out 160 times. So what if he struck out 160 times? Does that make him a bad player? Does that mean he doesn't deserve this contract? Absolutely not. And I gotta give it to you allaboutthephils- that is some outstanding analysis-

"I think that means he is swinging harder and trying to hit homeruns all the time."

Pure genious. You should be a scout.

[bobo]

And finally, though of course it's a controversial subject, I do firmly believe that some players perform notably worse in the clutch, specifically because they're pitched differently (like the down and away breaking stuff I mentioned above). I saw this over and over with Soriano (and to a lesser extend, ARod this year). If you're up 6-0, throw him a fastball and try to get ahead, and if he hits a HR, big deal. But if the game's close and there are runners on base...

2002-2006, Soriano's OPS:

bases empty: .857
runners on: .802
RISP: .762
RISP, 2 outs: .726

His HR rate, AVG, OPB, and SLG all have the same trend.

We're talking hundreds of AB for each category, so I think this supports my hypothesis to an extent.

[ptk420biatch]

Walkoffblast, I just read about a half hour ago that with the cotts trade, resigning Aramis and wood, signing derosa and soriano the cubs payroll is at 102 million. It was 94 last year and they said a month ago that is going to boost about 15-20%.

[allabouthephils]

Wow, I can tell you are a stellar human being. Attacking someone because they have an opinion. You take this too seriously and should calm down a little or go get laid. You are not the only person in the universe with an opinion.
160 strikeouts in 647 atbats. That is 1/4 of his atbats. That is a little more than not a big deal. That is 160 times he has gone up to the plate and not done ANYTHING but either swing and miss or just look. As opposed to 46 homers in 647 atbats. You do the math. It was, is and will be a HORRIBLE signing by the Cubs. I only wish we could revisit this in 3 or 4 years when he is either hurt or is begging for a trade out of Chicago.

[thenuge]

allaboutthephils- If you could have Soriano right now, with the exact same contract (given the Cubs payroll)- you'd do it. Period. And if you say you wouldn't, your lying.

And the only instance in which Soriano's strikeouts would really matter is if he was still a developing player in the minor leagues, where his contact rates would suggest that he would struggle against better pitching. Obviously by now Soriano has shown by now that he can hit so that isn't a concern. Other than that, you take 160 Ks given all that power that your getting. Go ask the Red Sox how they feel about Big Papi's strikeouts. They aren't a good thing, but when you can hit 40-50 HRs... who the hell cares?

[bsox21]

thenuge,

The majority of baseball fans are complete monkeys.

Leave it be. They want to hate soriano, leave them to miss one of the most incredbile players of our era.

Leave them in the dark bro.

Look at their arguments. Your dealing with monkeys bro.

[GoBoSox420]

"allaboutthephils- If you could have Soriano right now, with the exact same contract (given the Cubs payroll)- you'd do it. Period. And if you say you wouldn't, your lying."

This is hardly true

[integr96]

there is one thing i think a lot of people are missing, and that was the addition of gerald perry as hitting coach. he has improved pretty much every offense that he has been a part of. so this could be something that people should be looking at when people say soriano k's too much or bb's too little. and perry will not be working with soriano alone. i expect obp and ba to improve for almost everyone on the team.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20061108&content_id=1737045&vkey=pr_chc&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

[ScottBrosius]

Why would anyone expect soriano to start walking more? It isn't like he is 24.

The question isn't whether he is a good player. The question is whether he is worth more than beltran for more years. The tribune is shelling out this money because they want to sell the team, not because they think these are good long term moves.

[bsox21]

ScottBrosius,

Sori is one of the best players in the league.

He isn't as good as Beltran but he's better than most players in the league.

Sori is arguably a top 5 overall player in all of baseball.

In an inflationary market, this contract is fine.

[bobo]

bsox:

"Sori is arguably a top 5 overall player in all of baseball."

I'm dying to hear which 4 (and only 4) players are better than Soriano.

You already said Beltran is better, and I assume you've heard of this Pujols guy, so who are the other lucky 2?

[walkoffblast]

It is the largest contract not given out in that magical spending spree after the 2000 season. That is more than just an inflationary market. Contracts actaully went down on average last year. I agree the market is going to be high this year but this Soriano deal created the inflationary market so that argument cannot be used to defend it. They got the player they wanted by overpaying for him. We are going to see a lot of that this offseason. Beware the Ken Griffey Jr correlation if he goes to CF granted the vast difference in injury histories makes this a bad comparison. It does highlight the risk of an 8 year guaranteed deal.

[Thrillhouse26]

Soriano is no where near the top 5. If we're talking pitchers he is probably closer to 50 then 5.

He is the most consistent speed/power threat out there but he also is getting older. And I think most would agree the SBs start to go down. If he somehow plays CF or 2B then yes he becomes more of an elite player. But that slugging % in his career year was bested by Moises Alou at 39.

[bobo]

ThrillHouse!

Ding ding! Someone gets it!

[miltie]

" The tribune is shelling out this money because they want to sell the team, not because they think these are good long term moves."

You're going to have to explain this to me. They want to sell the team so in order to entice a buyer they stick them with someone who is going to get paid 134 million over the next 8 years? How could signing someone long term for this much money be an incentive for someone to buy the team? This makes even less sense when you take into consideration the fact that if someone were to buy the Cubs it would not happen overnight. I don't see the Cubs being sold in the next 2-3 years. The negotiations alone could take over a year. By that time Soriano will be at least 34 years old. That's not going to entice any buyer to buy the Cubs. The only way it helps the possible sale of the Cubs is if the addition of Soriano helps the Cubs win a world series which would in fact entice a buyer to buy the Cubs. As a Cubs I wouldn't care if that's what the Cubs are up to. I'll take a world series whatever the tribune's motivation.

[jballgame]

You guys are all hilarious-I've read through about 87 posts and come to this conclusion.

Until we know more details, all of your points are SPECULATION.

We don't know:

1) Where Soriano will play
2) What the terms of the contract were
3) How he will perform next year
4) If the Cubs will get pitching or not

Thus, doesn't all the bickering seem like a waste of energy until we have facts? LOL. For the record-I LOVE the signing...we paid what we had to in order to land the best free agent out there. PERIOD.

[miltie]

"You guys are all hilarious-I've read through about 87 posts and come to this conclusion.

Until we know more details, all of your points are SPECULATION. "

No shit Sherlock. You're on a freakin website that's called MLB Trade RUMORS. The title itself implies that there'll be plenty of speculation here. What the hell did you expect to find? What are we supposed to do? Shut our fuckin mouths until the eight years are up and then decide if the signing was a good move? Of Course there's speculation. We don't know where he'll play and we don't know what the options are. That doesn't mean we can't have a discussion about how this could end up being a good or bad deal depending on the circumstances.

[jd]

i just hope for cubs fans' sakes that IF they ever trade him they get more than b. wilkerson and spare parts back. too bad showalter didn't have the cajones to make him play left..... oh yeah, sori at leadoff would be a horrible idea imo, the 3 or 5 spot would be great in that lineup, enjoy cubbie fans, he is fun to watch

[jballgame]

Hey Miltie-it's called TRADE RUMORS not PERFORMANCE RUMORS.

"What are we supposed to do? Shut our fuckin mouths..."

YOU should. Never did I say you couldn't speculate....I just find it hilarious that some people get their panties in a bunch over unknowns and proclaims their opinion to be God's word.

[miltie]

" oh yeah, sori at leadoff would be a horrible idea imo, the 3 or 5 spot would be great in that lineup"

Sigh. His best numbers career-wise are in the leadoff spot. He has a higher BA, OBP SLG and OPS in the lead-off spot than anywhere 3-6 in the line-up. Yet you argue that he should bat 3-6 and that the lead-off spot is a horrible idea. I don't understand that. If you've got him on your team you put him where he plays best. Leadoff.

[jd]

ok mittie maybe you're right, his best stats might be at leadoff. i won't argue that b/c i don't know. what i do know is he strikes out a ton and his power would be wasted batting behind the bottom of the order. like i said IN MY OPINION, but at least you disagreed with me politely unlike some people on here so thanks for the interesting response.

[jd]

this made me laugh, i got it from a stupid yahoo thing:
Actually, he probably is going to play center field, even though he hasn't spent a single inning of his 961-game career there. While he fumbled around in left field most of last season, he did lead outfielders with 22 assists and covered as much ground as anyone in baseball. Then again, for $136 million, he should play all three outfield positions at once.

[quintjs]

To BoSox:
I must be dumb, because i do not get how questing signing a 31yr old to a 8 year deal worth huge somes of money is stupid.

Soriano is a great player, I never said he wasn't but come on He is not the greatest offesive player in the majors, and he is easily older than those players who produce at a consistent level year in year out got huge long term deals.

As i said, I have no problem with 80million+ over 5 years. I think thats a great signing.

Who cares if he was great in 2006, or is even better 2007-9 -- He has 8 years he is being paid to be an elite player, you think he will be an elite player for another 8 years? up until age 38-39 ? You want to put 138million dollars on it?

But wait, I just read you saying that Soriano is in the top 5 best players.. and i am stupid?? Who are the 4 ahead of him?

You think I am stupid and you are so very brilliant?

[jballgame]

quintjs-while I agree 8 yrs is a bit much-that is what it took to land the best free agent on the market this year.

As I stated in my earlier post, we don't know how the money is laid out, if there are club option years in there at the end of the deal, and whether or not there is/isn't a no trade clause.

We need to know those details before proclaiming whether the deal is good or not.

I would agree with you that if the Cubs can't get out of it via trade/option, it is not the best deal.

[miltie]

Ken Rosenthal just said the cubs are really pursuing Lugo. What do you guys think of Lugo batting lead-off with Soriano batting in the 2 spot?

Also Bruce Levine reports that the Cubs offered Schmidt a 3 year 45 million deal.

[walkoffblast]

Is it my imagination or does all this money spending signal the Cubs may actaully be afraid of losing some of their loyal fanbase to the White Sox?

Beware there was only one team that was able to deal with a contract this big and the yankees could only do it because they have seemingly endless money. The Cubs do not although they are acting like it ...

For all you Cubs fans I hope the spending spree works out more like the Marlins and less like Toronto last year.

[miltie]

"Beware there was only one team that was able to deal with a contract this big and the yankees could only do it because they have seemingly endless money. The Cubs do not although they are acting like it ... "

Not quite. The Cubs most definitely DO have the money. Question is whether they'd be willing to spend it. That's always been the issue with the trib.

[allabouthephils]

Sheesh... I'll tell ya, every Cubs fan thinks this deal is wonderful because they haven't had anything to get excited about before this offseason in along time. The fact remains that the Cubs are not as good as the Astros or Cardinals and a playoff spot is a pipe dream at best. Soriano does not upgrade your team all that much. The fact remains that your team had the lowest OBP in the league last year and Sori will not help that. He could essentially hurt that if Murton gets benched. Your pitching staff is shady to extremely shady at best. You guys get excited about Soriano, but the fact remains you are still the same old Cubs. Begging and praying for something to get excited about. It's not going to happen this year or next and the signing only hinders your possibilities as so much money has been tied up to 2 players. I like Soriano but I WOULD NEVER give him that much money. As for who is better than Soriano, I can think of a few...Or at least guys I'd rather have at that price..This isn't a complete list and I havent put much thought into it... But this is off the top of my head

Carlos Beltran
Ryan Howard
Albert Pujols
Vernon Wells
Chase Utley ( less strikeouts more upside younger...I know its arguable)
David Ortiz
Manny Ramirez
Miguel Tejada
Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter
Vladimir Guerrero
Jose Reyes
David Wright

[bobo]

Phils, I'd add (and I know this was off the top of your head):

Cabrera
Berkman
Hafner
Derrek Lee
Andruw Jones
Jason Bay

and possibly:
Sizemore
Morneau
Konerko
Thome

(of course, if it's an 8-year deal, some of these guys are disqualified).

You could even make an argument for players like Giambi and Nick Johnson being more valuable.

bsox - I think it's safe to say you've lost any shred of credibility you might have had here, at least until you tell us who the 4 better players than Soriano are (and explain why everyone else listed above is worse).

And we haven't even gotten into pitchers!

[cubz23]

I would not argue with any of the above being better than Soriano, but none of the above were available as a free agent this year - and with nothing in their system to trade, it was the quickest for Hendry to make the team better (which it has).

[bobo]

That's true, cubz. We're replying to bsox's statement that Soriano is one of the top 5 players in baseball.

[allabouthephils]

The Cubs are getting Soriano to play center field. He has never played center in his career. Wrigley field is a hard place to learn how to play a new position. I just can't see Soriano being worth that much money to the Cubs when they have an incomplete pitching staff, bullpen problems, and they never get on base. Cubs fans can spin the Soriano thing till they're blue in the face, it still doesn't make the Cubs a playoff team or anywhere near one. It doesn't help them in the short term or the long term. I look at a new acquisition on the basis of how does it improve the team. The Cubs two major flaws last year were on base percentage and pitching. Soriano isn't going to solve either of those problems. Soriano gives the Cubs another right handed power hitter who strikes out alot. I don't know how this improves the Cubs. Im still left scratching my head.

[quintjs]

jballgame - you are right, and you would hope the Cubs have a way out of this deal. And if they do, I am all for the signing.
They can't get out through a trade, look at the market now, that some players are impossible to trade (burrell, manny is hard, giambi, even the rangers had to eat a lot of money to trade A-Rod)

If that was what it took to land him, no out clause, you have to think if it was worth it.

Present value vs Future value

What if he turns into a Bagwell - he tied the Astros up, a lot of money wasted, and thats why they couldn't compete. Now its gone, they are talking about Soriano(were), Carlos Lee, etc etc

That is the concern. Its not like the Cubs are the Yankees, and can shake off losing a player worth 17million and sign another one.. can they??

8 years is a long way to predict into the future, especially for someone over 30.

[Kyle]

Since everyone else is a monday morning quaterback i guess i will add to the play book. First the deal that was made with Soriano was a deal that was set out to get him signed if he would sign. Hendry put a deal out there that Soriano would look at and say okay to. A couple notes on that -
First - This lets Hendry look for other players now and he don't have to sit back and wonder about a power hitter.
Second- No one on here knows the details of the contract and i believe that you are going to see at least two years worth of options in that 8 years. Which would make the contract 6 years long and that is normal for these days and a better rated player.
Third - The least important aspect- Is that other players see that the Cubs are making serious moves and it could help them make their decision on where to go.
Fourth- I hope that Soriano comes to Wrigley and makes us all proud and makes everyone eat their words. I hope that he has a great season and changes the opinions of everyone.

A lot of people are quick to jump and say that the cubs will be no better then last year.... well i think no one will know that till the season starts. I remember a lot of games last year that were lost by one run. So even though the Cubs finished last they still were giving a good run in a lot of the games. Plus last year was another year of injuries and players being gone. How many more runs would of been added if D Lee played the whole year? How many runs could M Barret scored if he was not out for all those games? How many runs could have been scored if Cedeno played up to what he was in the fall league? There are so many things that hurt the Cubs last year and the most important one being pitching i never even hit yet.
You look around the Central Division and i don't see anyone else making any major moves yet and all the teams have needs they need to address also. Look at St Louis they won the WS and the Cubs beat them up pretty good last year.

The Cubs are making some good moves and they are not even done yet. I think that the Cubs will diffently be better this year. And no i am not saying WS here we come but you have to take one thing at a time and I do believe they will give a good fight in the NL Central.

[jballgame]

allaboutthephils name says it all-obviously his posts are going to be biased, anti-Cubs and sour b/c the Phillies didn't get Soriano even though they were reported as a front runner.

Philadelphia's rotation is nothing to sneeze at either....nobody won more than 12 games last year, and none of your starters had an ERA below 3.91.

Let's compare Philly OF (Rowand/Victorino/Burrell) to Cubs OF (Soriano/Jones/Murton). I'd say Cubs are better.

3B Abraham Nunez vs. Aramis. Clear advantage Cubs.

SS J Rollins vs Izturis. Advantage: Phillies.

2B Chase Utley wins

1B Ryan Howard wins

C Barrett over Lieberthal

SP I'd still take ours with ?s over Philadelphia with no true ace.

Bullpen-Cubs.

It's clear we have a better team bud.

Don't throw stones in a glass house "allaboutthephils", cuz it's apparent you've been drinking HATERADE and your Phillies were just as absent from the post season as the Cubs were last year.

[allabouthephils]

First... The Cubs are a last place team. That hasn't changed because you resigned a player and signed a strikeout/homerun threat. 2nd... Lieberthal isn't with the Phils anymore... Barrett is linked to a new trade rumor every week... The Phils bullpen was one of the best in baseball last year and the Cubs don't even have a descent closer ( Ryan Dempster please). The Phils starting pitching came on like a bat out of hell the 2nd half of the season. They have a solid rotation with Cole Hamels Brett Myers Jon Lieber Jamie Moyer and Randy Wolf, The Cubs have Zambrano and then ummmmmmmm who.... Rich Hill ??? Do your research...The Phils led the league in scoring last season... The Phils not only finished well above the Cubs in the National league last year... But, they are still a much better team than the Cubs... I honestly can't believe im even debating this with you... Its laughable...A questionable signing for the next 8 years and Cubs fans get a wood... It's so funny... Defending your team is one thing, but to make ridiculous statements that the Cubs are better than anyone in the National league yet is obsurd... We'll see when the Cubs finish in the cellar again...

[greenbaydude1232]

Both of you are true idiots. allaboutthephils, I'll deal with you first. You make it sound like the Soriano signing will not change anything. The Cubs will not finish in the cellar again. Infact, it is a three way race in the NL Central between the Cards, Astros, and Cubs.

Jballgame...I understand your want to defend your club but you are an idiot as well. The Phillies pitching staff is clearly better than Cubs, right now! The Cubs still have a lot of moves to make. Before it all said and done the cubs will have 2 more SP and a CF.

The Cubs can contend but if they want to win they need to take the next month or two wisely... Then we can talk about being better than the Phillies.

[allabouthephils]

Greenbaydude,
Soriano does not solve any of the Cubs problems in their pitching staff or their on base percentage. Those were the achilles heels of the Cubs last year. It is very much still a two team race between the Astros and the Cardinals. The Cubs still need a closer. Soriano still needs to prove he can play center or else you're really in trouble. The Cubs still need to stop gap the 3 empty slots in the rotation (Prior always being a ???). And finally, the Cubs need someone to get on base. I don't think the Astros have those problems. I know the Cardinals don't have those problems. The fact of the matter is that no matter how you look at it, the Cubs are realistically still a year or two away. The Phillies pitching prospects are finally making headway into the major leagues. Cole Hamels and Brett Myers should lead the way for years to come. The old saying is true, pitching wins championships. By the way, I find it interesting everytime I mention the Cubs flaws and how Soriano solves none of those problems, the Cubs fans have absolutely no response.

[jballgame]

phils-here's a response:

Last years OBP for the Cubs:

Let's go by last years numbers and look at our starting lineup for next year for OBP

Barret - .368
Lee - .368
Derosa - .357
Izturis - .295
Ramirez - .352
Jones - .334
Soriano - .351
Murton - .365

Doesn't look like an issue to me (except Izturis, and I wouldn't count on him being here). Second, the Cubs aren't done-you must have missed the interview with Lou b/c he indicated that the Soriano signing was a pre-cursor to more deals occurring. Therefore, we have no idea what other additions the Cubs will make for CF/leadoff or for SP. As for a closer-we have 3 options: Dempster, Howry or Wood. Other teams have 1, 2 at best. As far as SP goes, we have Hill and Z locked in, and plenty of other possiblities for 3 slots (Marmol, Guzman, Mateo, Marshall, Miller, Prior, Cotts, etc.) Not to mention my earlier point that the Cubs aren't done yet. So while I admit our season is not set yet-the direction they are headed is good and they have plenty of options.

Greenbaydude-you shouldn't be calling anyone an idiot. The Cubs have advantages over the Phillies in many positions. Phillies SP doesn't scare anyone-it's weak and lacks a true #1.

Let's look at YOUR comments on this site:

"It leaves us with about 17 million to use on 2 pitchers. Which could be 12 mil on a top pitcher and 5 mil on a pitcher we get from cle or another trade."

A top pitcher (Zito or Schmidt) won't go for $12MM a year, and some would argue they're not even top tier starters.

"They sign an elite SP (try schmidt at 13), spend 2 mil to get dave roberts to play center and trade jones/eyre."

In case you missed it-Schmidt will go for $15MM/yr and Roberts will cost WAY MORE than $2MM when Pierre signs for $9MM.

"Again, its just a prediction and I'm not expert so we'll see."

So why are you acting like one and calling others on this site idiots?

"Any word on if the marlins would have any interest in pie and some other stuff for willis though?"

Yeah, they're going to just GIVE us Dontrelle for Pie. We don't have enough in the farm to get Willis......

Don't call people idiots when you make some suspect statements/questions dude.

[allabouthephils]

I appreciate your respect for a good debate jballgame. Many take others' opinions as attacks on them personally. At least someone gets it. It's baseball trade rumors and it's supposed to be fun. We should all keep it civil and respect one another. Name calling is childish.