Alex Rios On The Block

ESPN's Buster Olney reports in his blog that the Blue Jays are willing to trade right fielder Alex Rios, who turns 26 in February.  The Blue Jays are in search of one more quality starter to pair with Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Gustavo Chacin, and perhaps Casey Janssen or Shaun Marcum.  It's a necessity in the AL East.

Back in 2004, Baseball America ranked Rios sixth among all prospects, between Rickie Weeks and Kaz Matsui.  Rios earned a promotion to Toronto without mastering Triple A, and his growth kind of stagnated for two years.  He played some center field while Vernon Wells was out, and also served as the leadoff hitter for a while.

Before the breakout, many teams tried to pry Rios away.  The Nats talked about a Rios for Nick Johnson deal in December of 2004.  You can bet Jim Bowden would love him in CF, but doesn't have the goods for a trade.  In the winter of '05, the Rangers were offering Kevin Mench for Rios while the Nats countered with Brad Wilkerson.

The much-awaited breakout happened this year, as Rios mashed at .330/.383/.585 for 270 ABs leading up to his June 29th leg injury (staph infection).  He returned on July 28th and hit .261/.297/.411 thereafter.  It was an ugly couple of months but he did bounce back in September.

Some projections for '07:

Ron Shandler: .293/.337/.500
Bill James: .286/.336/.442

On his glovework, The Fielding Bible wrote:

"Rios is an excellent defender, a five-tool player with outstanding range and speed and a strong, accurate arm suited for right field.  The Jays would love to switch him to center field where he is a better offensive fit, but they have a Gold Glover in Vernon Wells entrenched there."

With Ichiro now in center, Rios may be baseball's best defensive RF. 

Olney mentions a few trade possibilities: to the Dodgers for Brad Penny, to the A's for Joe Blanton, or to the Mets for a package of young guys.  Olney didn't bring up the White Sox, but there could be an excellent fit.  The Sox could use Rios in center in 2007, and perhaps shift him back to right in '08 if Jermaine Dye leaves.

Comments

[nrmax88]

I love Rios, this kid exploded last year and I think he can be similar to Vernon Wells if he keeps developing at the pace he is at. This is just on abservation by me, not really sure how true it is, but did any Jays fans also see a little bit of Rios changing his batting stance a little bit, opening up more kind of like Wells does? You guys will know better then me, because he always seemed like he could be a possible 5 tool guy, and it is interesting that he modeled his stance around Wells at those times where his success was improving the most rapidly. I think this guy can be a stud pickup for somebody.

[nrmax88]

Am i out of line saying that he can be a Wells type player Jays fans? I admit I dont know a TON about him, but i did have him on my fantasy team and followed his stats closely. He seemed to be going great, until he was sideline, by I think a staff infection. This guy looks like he is for real though. Id love to have him in RF of any team i root for

[Atobe]

I can't really see the mets going after him. I think he'd be a great fit for them personally, but with Green out there in RF and milledge in the wings, I can't see how they can afford to give up Heilman to get him. I don't think they are keeping heilman in the pen cause they don't he can't start, but rather because they really need him to be effective in the bullpen.

I mean theres Wagner, Duaner Sanchez who is coming back from a big injury, Mota is out 50 games and then theres Feliciano, Adkins, Burgos. We aren't really talking about stability in the bullpen right now, so thats why the mets are so hesistant to move him, or so I think.

[Baseballfan79]

I would not be surprised if the marlins get involved in this.

They are looking for a young stud CF like Rios. He fits them price range and abilities for what they are looking like.

They could put together a package around Nolasco and Pettit perhaps.

[bobo]

The Mets should jump all over Heilman for Rios. I can't imagine the Blue Jays making that deal. A guy who could be a perenial 900+ OPS guy, with gold glove defense, not yet arbitration eligible? Sign me up. They should be looking for Willis.

[eeleye99]

nrmax, just about every jay fan is praying he's not traded. We all see him as a potential superstar.

When Rios came up, he could hit for average, run well, and have good OF defence with his arm. But he had 1 homeruns over his first year or so. Then it grew to 10. JP Riccardi commented on why his power wasn't coming around, because he has a similar build to Ken Griffey, and if you watch him in batting practice (which I do every day since I work there), he easily has the best power on the team (and thats a powerful team), at least in batting practice. He mashed an upperdeck shot at the RC which I nabbed for myself before worked started. He's way better here than Glaus. Well last year he turned a corner, and perhaps having protection helped, but before he had the infection and lost weight, he was on pace for like 30+ homers, .330 average, 120 rbis. That would be his upperlimit, but even if he could become a 20-25 homer guy with all those other tools and good average in the next few years, for cheap, he'd be great and just stupid to trade him for a mediocre pitcher. It took him awhile to get back after the injury because he was rushed from the hospital bed to the battersbox and lost weight, but by September he started to hit those homers again and get that average. However, he sometimes chases bad pitches, and his discipline is not great. But with protection in the Jays lineup next year, I have high hopes for him.

[eeleye99]

Like, if the return is going to be a mediocre pitcher, I hope they part with Reed Johnon, who is at peak value now and is expendable and we can keep Rios and he can be replaced by Lind, and we can throw in a middle prospect...but the White Sox could use a CF like him who does all the little things right and is a solid player. It'd be such a waste on Rios unless the return is like Dontrelle WIllis or something.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Did they ever find out where the staph infections were coming from? Didn't another Blue Jay go down for a while with one?

The Marlins would be a good fit, but the prospect pitcher they would have to send back might to too green for Riccardi to throw to the wolves in the AL east.

[cheek88]

cardinals should go after him hard edmonds is old, enc is horrible ,and duncan can't catch a fly ball, so like reyes+duncan maybe a prospect would do

[Gleebo]

I had him on my fantasy team last year. He was great until he got scurvy and his leg was amputated. He bounced back nicely after he returned from that.

[wihargo]

I wonder, are the Jays players at all for Jon Lieber? According to the paper this morning, all the Phils want is an 8th inning specialist. would Jeremy Accardo for Lieber fly?

[Droptop]

nrmax - To me it seemed like 4 or 5 Blue Jay hitters had the same/very similar stance, all of them "homegrown" too.

I'd take Rios on the A's anyday, but hope it wouldn't cost Blanton, the A's rotation just isn't deep enough. I'm worried about our #5 spot in the rotation I wouldn't want to be worried about our #4 spot too.

[eeleye99]

I'd do Accardo for Lieber in a second. But Gillick seems stingy so he wou'dnt do it...I wouldn't give a good prospect for him because he's old and not great for the AL East at taht pont, but if the price is right, yeah Accardo in a second...he's good in the NL.

[Droptop]

I've seen Accardo pitch live countless times for 2 years out here in the Bay Area, enjoy his inconsistancy....
I've never been sold on Accardo having the potential many believe he has but he has only pitched for 2 years in the majors, maybe he just hasn't found the right pitching coach...

[eeleye99]

I think that slingshot thing is too revealing and makes his control worse...and the AL East may be too hard for him.

[dnice42]

I agree that the mets should be all over a heilman for rios trade. With the addition of a promising burgos and a healthy duaner sanchez back handling the 8th inning , heilman will again pout about his place in the pen and his exclusion from the rotation. Considering the mets young core of reyes, wright and beltran , rios would be a great addition and an incredible offensive and tremendous defensive improvement in right. Shawn green who?

[rawr]

Heilman would not be nearly enough to get Rios. The Mets would have to start with Heilman + Pelfrey and go from there. Rios is a young stud OFer who is incredibly cheap. I honestly see the Marlins being the best fit for a trade. They have a multitude of young promising starters that they could deal for Rios.

[Baseballfan79]

I think the Blue Jays would have a good interest in a Ricky Nolasco + Pettit/Garcia trade. That gives them 2 young cheap pitchers with solid potentials. That could fill out their rotation specially if towers doesnt come back strong

[wihargo]

the Jays may take Nolasco, but the Marlins would be looking at Reed Johnson in return.

[eeleye99]

would nalasco be able to survive in the AL East? I dont think so, 20 homers in 140 IP in the NL...but I dunno him that well.

[18 Ks 18]

I'd think the Dodgers would be willing to jump all over a guy like Rios? He's a young up and coming player who can take over the J.D. Drew. They have plenty of young prospects and Brad Penny may be expendable after signing Jason Schmidt. Seems like a match to me if The Blue Jays can take on some salary.

[Baseballfan79]

I wouldnt move Nolasco for Reed Johnson. I have no interest in seeing him near the fish, would rather start alex sanchez (just dont like him in our park honestly).

You need to realize that Nolasco as hit hard when he was hurt, but the idiot Giradi kept throwing him out there to pitch hurt.

Take out the mets he had a 11-8 3.84 era actually. Take out just the 3 injured starts he had around a 4 era and 11-8 record also.

But the kid has good potentials and could be solid for you guys. Plus it would be along with another possible starter to join in like Garcia (top prospect) Pettit (top 100 prospect) etc etc.

but shall see I think you guys will get someone to over-pay but I wouldnt touch penny he is paid alot and injury prone and had a horrible 2nd half.

[eeleye99]

All I'm saying is that Reed Johnson might not appear great from his stats, but if you watch him every day from being a Jays fan you know he's a very solid player. He doesn't have the flashy homeruns...but he lead the league in assists I think, can play CF, gets HBP a lot and had a .390 or so OBP this year, gets 12 homers a year, hit .320 last year, and can run well, bunt, etc...he's a gamer, a good leadoff hitter and cheap. NOt in reference to anything just saying he's an underrated guy. You'd think he'd be a perfect fit for the White Sox.

[SpecialFNK]

the article suggests Penny or Blanton. hang on i have to stop laughing. Penny isnt good enough straight up for Rios.. and Joe Blanton, after last season i wouldnt consider him straight up for Rios either.
IMO for Rios the Jays should be able to get a solid young #3/potential #2 starting pitcher, maybe someone along the lines of Ervin Santana(allthough i dont think hes available)
i was thinking maybe one of the young arms in Florida, Scott Olsen? or other young pitchers like Dan Haren? Eric Bedard?(allthough i dont see Toronto/Baltimore trading within the division)
rotoworld.com said this..
"The Blue Jays shouldn't think about parting with him for anything less than a rising star pitcher with a similar amount of service time. We'd argue that Rios, being four years away from free agency, is worth even more in trade than Wells was a few days ago"

i dont think the Jays are going to trade Accardo, and even if he was considered for Lieber i wouldnt do it. Lieber was OK for the NL, he be bust in the AL.

[Droptop]

You couldn't stop laughing about Penny or Blanton and then mention DAN HAREN after saying "young#3/potential#2"??? Dan Haren is a potential ACE and already a number 2. Blanton IS a young #3 type with potential to be a #2. He struggled last year because his Curveball was inconsistant but if you look at his rookie year, he'll fall somewhere inbetween, which would be a #3 type pitcher. I've seen every game Blanton has started for the A's and 50% of them when he was on the Rivercats(A's AAA team). I wouldn't part with Blanton for Rios but that's taking into consideration the A's current roster AND farm system talent.

I'll leave alone the fact you mentioned Bedard...

[SpecialFNK]

Haren..
06- 14-13, 4.12 ERA, 223 IP, 224 H (1 more H than IP) 1.21 WHIP, .258 BAA
05- 14-12, 3.73 ERA, 217 IP, 212 H (5 less H than IP) 1.22 WHIP, .255 BAA
06 splits..
06 home- 103 IP, 97 H (6 less H than IP) 3.75 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .244 BAA
06 away- 119 IP, 127 H (8 more H than IP) 4.44 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .269 BAA
his 05 splits were a little better..
05 home- 110 IP, 107 H (3 less H than IP) 3.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .252 BAA
05 away- 107 IP, 105 H (2 less H than IP) 3.70 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .259 BAA
Oakland is a pitchers park, compared to Rogers Center in Toronto which is a hitters park. Haren also gives up alot of HR's.. 31 in 06, 26 in 05.
Haren has great potential but i wouldnt call him an ace, thats my opinion anyway.
one could argue that 07 will actually be a down year for Haren considering he has pitched 226 innings in 06 and 213 inning in 05 coming off an 04 season in which he pitched in only 46 innings.. infact based on Haren's 1st half to 2nd half numbers maybe hes allready on that way..
06 1st half- 127.2 IP, 117 H, 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .240 BAA
06 2nd half- 95.1 IP, 107 H, 4.91 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .280 BAA
after looking at that maybe im not as interested in Haren anymore.

[palehose35]

"All I'm saying is that Reed Johnson might not appear great from his stats, but if you watch him every day from being a Jays fan you know he's a very solid player. He doesn't have the flashy homeruns...but he lead the league in assists I think, can play CF, gets HBP a lot and had a .390 or so OBP this year, gets 12 homers a year, hit .320 last year, and can run well, bunt, etc...he's a gamer, a good leadoff hitter and cheap. NOt in reference to anything just saying he's an underrated guy. You'd think he'd be a perfect fit for the White Sox."

As a White Sox fan living in Toronto, let me just say I've been trying to sell my fellow White Sox fans on this for a while now. Him and Ryan Freel are two guys that are perfect fits in my opinion.

[Baseballfan79]

I wouldnt move Scott Olsen for Rios. Sorry. Olsen will be a number 1 and an elite 200k+ per year lefty starting pitcher. He is the hardest to get of all of the marlins arms.

I would be surprised ifthey would move anything more then nolasco package with more. Maybe at most Josh Johnson

But Willis, Olsen, Sanchez would be untouchable by florida according to their F.O.

They would be better off trading with TB if Toronto wanted Olsen.

[eeleye99]

Why no Jays support palehose? YOu can be both...

[GoBoSox420]

You're suggesting that Rios is worth Haren? Olsen?

And you laugh at Penny? Jesus...

[eeleye99]

I think he's better than all those guys. I'd only trade him for top young pitchers, like Dontrelle Willis...I'm not wild about Haren. But JP always sets his sights lower and isn't a good trader so I'm hoping he doesn't get traded.

[GoBoSox420]

Willis? Wow, that is absurd. And you're not high on Haren? Ok, there is NO way you're getting Haren for Rios anyway.

[waterwalk]

If this is all rios will get in return (4 years left until he's a FA means nothing?) i'd rather trade johnson+mcgowen (jays top pitching prospect) for a starter.

If rios went to florida he would probably make the allstar team.

[Thrillhouse26]

I think Rios's infection really hurt his trade value. Most GMs might still try to lowball because his stats were hurt. That said still hard to lowball for a 26 5 tool player. I'm a big fan and would love to see him batting 2nd for the Phils but I know it's just a pipe dream or a terrible trade by JP.

[Baseballfan79]

no way the fish are trading willis for rios.

If he went to the fish it would be for something like nolasco and a package or rios for josh johnson maybe.

but the marlins wont trade willis

[bobo]

When is Willis a free agent? 2008 or 2009? (and does anyone know a good site to view this on? I know it can get tricky with service time...)

If it's 2008, the Marlins should trade him for Rios. What are they going to get at the deadline? A package of prospects (no team is going to trade an integral part of their offense then). Players with Rios' skills, experience, and contract are few and far between. I agree he has more trade value than Wells did.

[Baseballfan79]

after 2009

[Baseballfan79]

He will be a FA in 2010 and Rios will be a FA in 2010 as well.

they wont move willis for Rios, crap they could move Willis for Crawford whom is better and under contract longer or Baldelli and something whom is under contract 5 years and cheaper and just as good if not better then Rios.

[GoBoSox420]

They should trade Willis for Rios because willis is a FA after 08?

That is ridiculous. better players were being offered for Willis, why would they sell themselves short 2 seasons before he's gone??

[eeleye99]

Willis has 2 years left before FA I believe, and will get more expensive. Rios has 4. He's better than Baldelli for sure, and if he fulfills his potential, will be better than Crawford, but thats obviously no sure thing yet. This at least adds to the argument that they COULD give up WIllis, but I understand having untouchables....I wouldn't wanna see my team trade away certain guys. It prolly would be a guy like Nolasco, Johnson, etc...but remember these guys are lower on service time.

[brvslugger10]

the braves should def. jump on him, put him in left field.The left field for the braves has no power and they could use a bat.

[wihargo]

Is Rios' ceiling really higher than Crawford's? I myself wouldn't be surprised to see these two duking it out for a batting title one day.

[Baseballfan79]

Hmm 1st off Rios Ceiling isnt higher then crawford. If you believe that you are just being a homer. That is like me saying Hanley's Ceiling is better then ARod's ceiling.

Rios Ceiling is about what Baldelli's ceiling is.

2nd Willis isnt a FA till after the 2009 season, 3 more years. The same time that Rios is a FA if you check his numbers (entering Arby this year).

[eeleye99]

Rios ceiling is higher than Crawford. Crawford steals 50-60 bases a year. He wins that one..Rios could probably be a 30 SB guy. Crawford has 20 homers a year around....Rios' POTENTIAL is around 30. Neither walk a lot, and I don't see why Rios can't hit at least .300, if not more, which is what Crawford gets. Plus, his defence is great...

WIllis has pitched for 4 years....it would be weird if they had him for 3 more season? I really don't know, but isn't usually 6? On Cott's, it says his service time is 3.143...so that seems like 2 years and 1 month, which could mean 3 years, its a little confusing though. Rios' is 2.130, so thats at least an extra year than Willis.

[wihargo]

Unless he gets hurt (or inexplicably begins to suck), Crawford has a pretty good chance to collect his 1000th hit by the end of next season. He would pass Albert Pujols and become the 6th youngest player to 1000 hits. He won't catch pujols for how quickly he got there in terms of games played or at bats, but still that is pretty impressive.
With Rios, he is just starting to come into his own as a player now. After waiting all this time for him to develop it would be a shame for the Jays to trade him and have to watch him rake for some other team.

[GoBoSox420]

Crawford has a much higher ceiling than Rios. If you think Rios is in anyway more valuable it's because you'd love to see him get a guy like Willis or Olsen on the Jays

[wihargo]

I don't think that we've seen the maximum output from Crawford just yet. And Rios is a half year older than Crawford, for what it's worth.

[eeleye99]

gobosox...thats not true...the last thing I want is Rios traded because I think he can be a superstar...past performance doesn't matter. And I acknolwedged that I'm talking about RIos' CEILING. I'm not saying he's better than Crawford, and in fact I should have been clearer...I was comparing Crawford's average performance to Rios' ceiling. Do you know what I mean? Just for the sake of showing that RIos can be good. To debate each of their ceilings would be useless....only future performance would tell. Crawford is a great player. I just think Rios can be very very good too...hopefully.

[Baseballfan79]

Willis is after 2009. Plus the marlins wont even listen to offers for him when they have been asked. He wont be moved for now, you can forget it dude.

The marlins might make an offer with Johnson but even then I would be very surprised. They most likely, if they make an offer, will make one around Nolasco and another pitching prospect.

Crawford though has a much higher ceiling then Rios. He is a more proven commodity and also is younger and is signed longer and cheaper, he doesnt have injury concerns.

Some might even say that Rios high OPS this year was a fluke since it jumped 165 points from his career average. Also Crawford has already won GG's in defense.

You are comparing a guy has never hit as many HR's as crawford (17 max ever), or stolen more SB (9 Max ever), Has a lower career BA, Never hit as many Doubles or triples either.

You need to look at a baldelli caliber of player when looking at Rios. He is a nice talent and could become a nice player. But he isnt an elite player in MLB.

When you are talking of Carl crawford of Willis you are talking of an elite young player. Willis is the best lefty in the NL, and Crawford is the best 5 tool player with Reyes right there as well. (flip a coin depending on if you need a OF or a SS)

[Baseballfan79]

If you are going to compare the ceilings then feel free.

Crawford's ceiling is

300/350/550/900+ OPS

30+ HR
60+ SB
100+ runs/RBI both
GG caliber defense
GG caliber Arm
HoF potential numbers in the long run.
Comparison Ricky Henderson

And I dont even like TB

[GoBoSox420]

regardless you can compare ceiling or current numbers

crawford is the better player, hands down.

I said that because either we have some stupid people or misguided Jays fans who believe Alex rios could get willis haren or olsen

[Dev0]

Thats funny a Red Sox Fan calling jays fans misguided. The same fans that said they were gonna have clemens in their rotation and think that schilling is still a ace.

Simple Fact for the Rios Crawford comparers, The Starting OF for the AL for many years to come could be Wells, Rios, Crawford. To say Rios isn't even close to Crawford I think your Joking yourselves or your Homer Fans like redsox fans who are just mad the jays beat them, and will likely keep doing so.

[eeleye99]

You are putting words in my mouth. I didn't say Rios could get Haren or Willis. No way they can: the market is inflated for pitching. But I believe they are what would be an equal value in trade.

And to compare Rios past numbers doesn't really say much, if you were a Jays fan and watched him every day, then you'd know he's improving by leaps and bounds....to think that past performance indicates future performance LINEARLY is stupid. Anyway, the Rios Crawford comparison is MOOT anyway, but Rios can be a superstar, or at least a very solid player, on Baldelli's level.

[eeleye99]

Crawford is more proven. Plus I think Dontrelle willis is a smidge overrated anyway.

[eeleye99]

And to say that Crawford is better...well duh...but the gap won't be that far next season, it may be very close even in future seasons.

[GoBoSox420]

Thats funny a Red Sox Fan calling jays fans misguided. The same fans that said they were gonna have clemens in their rotation and think that schilling is still a ace.

You're a moron. I said misguided jays fans, not all jays fans are misguided. See the difference? Ill ignore the clemens statement, because I honestly don't know.

I did not say Rios is not even close. I did say Rios is not equal to Crawford. So instead of just taking cheap shots at red sox fan, read what i fucking type

I was responding to whoever said Rios was worth Haren/Olsen/Willis etc, thats it.

[eeleye99]

You were being hypocritical too, putting words in my mouth that rios could fetch willis in trade...I said he's AS GOOD (debateable), not WORTH the same (objective). If this market wasn't so pitching starved, Rios could be considered as valuable as all those pitchers...You red sox fans are so fucking arrogant and your owner is fucking the biggest cry baby. "oh, we paid so much for daisuke matsuzaka give us a discount, wah wah boras so intimidating, we have all the negotiating power and we're so good cause we scouted him from day 1" blah blah blah.

[eeleye99]

and your team gives guys bad physicals and to get every advantage they can so they can pay less cause they are so stingy. and you all act like you know everytyhing. yes i read sons of sam horn, and you guys analyze the shit out of things and half the team are just dumbasses. your just jealous that we'll have a RF thats way better than your cry baby RF next year.

[SpecialFNK]

its unfortunate Rios had his staff infection last season, but at the time he was right there in stats with the league leaders. you cant just look and say well he only played 128 games therefor average them stats out for a full season and you get whatever.. when he first came back from the injury understandably he wasnt on top of his game the way he was when he went down.
look at his 1st half stats..
.330 AVG, .383 OBP, .585 SLG, .968 OPS, 89 H, 15 HR, 58 RBI
..and factor in that his last game before the injury was June27, and then once he came back July28 he wasnt the same until September.
its more like with Rios to contribute numbers doubled to those 1st half stats, so IMO maybe something like .330 AVG/30+HR's/100+RBI's/30+SB's

my opinion is the Jays should be able to get a top solid young signed long term #3/#2 type starter for Rios.

look at Rios minor league stats..
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Alexis-Rios.shtml

and for those interested in Crawford, then look at Crawford's minor league numbers..
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Carl-Crawford.shtml

[Ball Morris]

The Jays should not trade Rios at this point. He could end up better than Wells. Yes the pocket book has been hit hard in TO (Wells signing) ....
But this guy could be American League MVP after the 2006 staff infection in 2007 .. he is back ..
Sometimes the best trade is the one you never made ..
...

[Gleebo]

"I think Rios's infection really hurt his trade value"

Not as much as having his leg amputated because of the infection did.

[SpecialFNK]

my opinion is if the Jays want to contend next year with NY and BOS they NEED another quality SP, and Rios is the best player who can be traded to bring in the best available starter.
Johnson(nd maybe a prospect) will get you an average pitcher, maybe someone like Lieber.
Lind will get you a young inexperienced pitcher with potential, but like Lind you wont know if that player will be major league ready.
the Jays potentially without Rios still have a solid lineup with Wells/Thomas/Glaus/Overbay

[bsox21]

I would wait to deal Rios until around the break.

Rios' trade value will not change in half a year. He's a clear stud in the making.

Give ur young pitchers a shot to win a job before u deal a future franchise player in Rios.

If thei pitchers falter (and WHEN burnett goes on the DL), THEN u consider moving Rios.

Rios is not the type of player to deal lightly. Riccardi has to get as close to a SURE THING as possible when dealing Rios and he knows that.

believe me, you don't want to be known as the guy who traded away Rios without getting a great player back.

Rios will explode within 2 years.

We're talking elite upside. It's not IF anymore wiht Rios. It's WHEN.

[bsox21]

Scott Olsen was a good name.

If I'm the Marlins, I dont deal Olsen either, but if I'm the Jays, I don't move Rios unless I can get this type of guy.

I'd take Ervin Santana or Anthony Reyes for Rios too.

If I can't get a SUREFIRE major leaguer with at least #2 starter upside, I tough it out with guys like McGowan.

We have only seen flashes of what Rios is capable of.

With his talent, his value can only go up.

Riccardi needs to wait wait wait and then wait some more.

If GMs dont think so yet, he will play his way up to being worth the Ervin Santana's and Scott Olsen's of the world.

[Ball Morris]

Gleebo
If Rio's Sept stats were poor ...then yes the staff
infection would have devalued this guy .. BUT THEY WEREN'T
Get a life pal !!!
In my opinion.. When you have an "intelligent draft scenario"
please post it ...we would all would like to know what trade would work and be fair for all parties involving Rios...

[Droptop]

Special, I called Haren a POTENTIAL ACE, I didn't call him an actual ACE as of now and his HR's are from throwing his fastball too much, I'm confident he'll realize that. His Slider is the key, his most dominant games are when his Slider is working. Vernon Wells called Haren's Splitter the best in the game.

[SpecialFNK]

my mistake. Haren is still young and could develop into an actual ace.
im still confident that Rios can turn into a superstar potential of .300+AVG/30+HR's/100+RBI's/30+SB's with gold glove defence. has the ability to play CR but also has a cannon arm for RF.
id hate to see Rios go and i dont think the Jays are desperate to move him enough to where they will accept the names mentioned in the original article. his name is out there and JP should not settle for anything less than a #2 SP. if they cant get that then hold onto him.
if the Jays do go into next season with Rios still on the team and not having acquired anyone new for the rotation then i dont see Rios being traded at all because during the season i think its more likely the Jays trade prospects for a vetran starter(maybe a rent a pitcher)

[bobo]

bsox - I agree. You don't trade Rios unless it's for a potential #2 at the minimum.

When I said is Willis a free agent in 2008 or 2009, I meant for the start of the season (i.e. is he a FA after 2007 or after 2008). I didn't think there was any way he's under the Marlins' control for 3 more years, so I'm just wrong. Again, where do you find this out? I don't know where to look.

So what I meant was if Willis was a FA after 2007, the Marlins would be stupid not to trade him for Rios.

Willis is overrated. He's the best lefty in the NL, but that's only because there are no good lefties in the NL. He has to have at least one more 2005 before you start calling him elite. He's a #3 starter.

And about Crawford. Rios had a better OPS in an injury plagued season that Crawford has ever put up. I do like Crawford. But to say he's that much better than Rios is just wrong. Defensively he's got an edge I guess because he's a CF, but Rios can play there too. His SB do help (as opposed to guys like Pierre), but Rios's power offsets that. Their salaries should be similar for the next 4 years (but Rios will be cheaper for the next two).

I agree that they are both top young OF, and either is worth more than Willis. But to say Crawford is _that_ much better is not something you can do. After this season, you'll be able to safely say who's better. But right no? Not really. Crawford I suppose, but only based on track record.

[SpecialFNK]

contract info can be found here..
http://www.rotoworld.com/Content/clubhouse_contracts.aspx?sport=MLB&majteam=FLA
Willis- 2007-09: Arb Eligible, 2010: free agent.
you can also click the drop down menu for other teams.

[Gleebo]

Ball Morris,

Im just joking around about the leg amputation. I think Rios is an excellent player...it was just a running joke between me and my friends because it was something you rarely see and i had him on my fantasy team.

[JoeyJr09]

I usually just read these things but I had to comment. This is getting insane. How in any way shape or form can you think Rios is equal in value to Willis, Olsen or Haren?

These guys play premimum positions, are all young, and are all top players at the position. They have all put together at least a year and a half of good MLB proformance so they are proven. What has Rios done? He has had a good half season last year and even that can be knocked because he couldn't stay healthy.

Stop talking about potential. Potential doesn't bring you elite players in return during trades. If teams want'd to deal based on potential then the Rays would trade Delmon Young who has more potential than any other young guy in the game and they would land Chris Carpenter or Roy Halladay. Do you think that will ever happen? Then what makes you think Rios potenital is going to land a Willis or Haren?

"Willis is overrated. He's the best lefty in the NL, but that's only because there are no good lefties in the NL. He has to have at least one more 2005 before you start calling him elite. He's a #3 starter."

He's 24 years old. He wasrunner up for the Cy Young at age 23. He has a career 3.44 ERA. He averaged 17 wins per season. And he has gone over 200 IP in two out of his 3 full seasons. (just missed on his thrid when he pitched 197). So on top of his good numbers he is a workhorse. He also averages 5 CG per year and 2 Shutouts. But your right, he's a number 3. What you dumb or something? How can people on this board claim Haren is a potential ace yet Willis is a number 3. Get real guys. Ted Lilly is a number 3, Aj Burnett is a number 3. Willis is an ACE in eeryway shape or form. Plus the fact he has more passion for the game then anyone and is a great clubhouse guy.

Rios value isn't anywhere near as high as you all think. He was hurt last season and outside fo about 3 months where he played very well he has done nohing. He also has good potential but potential is just that, potential. Proven players fetch more in trades. Rios would be perfect it Florida for a Nolasco, Petit, Brad McCann package. Thats a number 4 for this season in Nolasco, a number 5 slash swingman for this season in Petit. Petit has huge upside was the Mets number 2 prospect last season and ranked as a top 50 prospect. THe could be a number 2 one day. Plus Brian McCann's little bro Brad who is still about a year away and has some talent.

That's a very respectable package for Rios who has never hit better then 17 homers and averages 56 RBIs per year. Plus he gets caught stealing about half the time. So yea he puts up 15 stolen bases but he also gets thrown out about 7 times. Some of you all need to get real when you are discussing what player an get in trade.

[DentalPlan]

My prediction: Alex Rios pulls a Jorge Cantu next year and reverts to normal. Remember when Jorge Cantu was just the baddest of the young baadasses? I'll buy a .780-.840 OPS from him. Still pretty good. But a .900+ OPS? No. I don't buy it. But it is funny to see people pretend like he's the greatest thing since sliced bread.

It's pretty much a scam, when a player gets off to a smoking hot start for 2 months, then gets injured, everyone thinks they're as good as their hot 2 months (like Cesar Izturis a few years back) but they aren't. Post ASB OPS of .709, bad years before that, I wouldn't pay a huge package for that.

[eeleye99]

joeyjr you have no idea what your talking about. you prolly have never seen him in a game and are just reading stats of the net. the fact that he "couldn't stay healthy" was a freak staph infection. He was a highly rated prospect that is capable of tons of power and has shown he can hit for average. No one said they think Rios could land somone that good in a trade...and your notion of a trade is retarded because the jays aren't looking for "possible-miss" prospects that would get murdered in the AL East, they are trying to contend next year so thats not gonna happen anyway. You are saying his flash of power was a fluke, when others see it as a future indicator. ANother player never hit a homerun for the first year or so of his career: his name is KIRBY PUCKETT. Rios was having confidence problems, but hey, its not in the stat sheets so it must not exist. Look what happeened to Puckett....Rios could finally be untapping his potential and you just want to snag him for nothing before he becomes a superstar...past perforamcen is a poor predictor of future performance. It has nothing to do with it. WIll is better than a number 3 though I agree, to say he's anything less than a 1 is to be unrealistically picky.

[bsox21]

testing

[bsox21]

I agree and disagree with joey,

I thinku undervalue Rios but ur right on about Willis.

The only reason America isnt going crazyover dontrelle is becuz he's black.

if he were whiute and hadthe same performance, every single person in america wouldbe wearing a dontrelle willisjersey.

seriously...

barry zito is called an ace but dontrelle isnt?

dontrelle is the best younglefty to come along since forever (not named johan. yes, liriano is great, but he couldnt stay healthy, and innings areHUGE in todays day and age.)

Rios will be awesome, but i agree he doesnt belong in the same sentence with dontrelle willis.

willis is another tier above everyone we're talking about.

[JoeyJr09]

"joeyjr you have no idea what your talking about. you prolly have never seen him in a game and are just reading stats of the net. the fact that he "couldn't stay healthy" was a freak staph infection."

Last iem I checked a trip to the DL is a trip tp teh Dl where is a staph infection, broken arm or TJ surgery. Missing time is still missing time.

"He was a highly rated prospect that is capable of tons of power and has shown he can hit for average."

And those aren't a dime a dozen? You know how many teams have prospects that can hit for a good average and have power. What makes Rios a better prospect is that he is a five tool player. On top of the average and power he can run, field and throw. However, His power isn't nearly what you are making it out to be. I know he's got potential but so far the most he's ever hit is 17. Lets allow him to break the 25 homer mark before he start talking about him as a power hitter.

"You are saying his flash of power was a fluke, when others see it as a future indicator."

Never did i say it was a fluke. i think he will hit for more power. I'm simply saying you you al should go talking about him as a power hitter and this time bat the way you have been doing when the reality is that he's played 2 and half seasons and still hasn't even been able to crack the 20 homer mark for a season.

"ANother player never hit a homerun for the first year or so of his career: his name is KIRBY PUCKETT"

You crack on me saying I base my arguemtn solely on Rios stats and then you come right back and base your argument on the fact that Kirby Puckett has done it. Oh wow Kirby Puckett did it so now Rios is going to do it too. Kirby Puckett is the exception not the norm. For every Kirby Puckett there are about 15 nobodes that flatline and become nothing more then a journeymen and paltoon players.

"Rios was having confidence problems, but hey, its not in the stat sheets so it must not exist."

You said past performance is a bad predictor of future performance but yet you sound as if you are predicting his confidence problems to go away. He might have them his entire career.

"Rios could finally be untapping his potential and you just want to snag him for nothing before he becomes a superstar"

Wow yet another prediction. I can't believe that you are bashing me for evalutating him based on what I have seen of him and what he is done in the majors yet you are perdicting what you think he will do based on the fact that he was a top prospect in the minors three years ago. You have no idea if he will become a superstar. You hope he will, you think he will but you don't know. All you have to go on is what he has done up to this point and that is not much. The thing making him so valuable is his potential because if you were to base it on stats alone he would be nothing but a serviceable OFer.

"past perforamcen is a poor predictor of future performance."

It is a better perdictor then 3 year old minor league numbers and comparisions to Kirby Puckett.

"WIll is better than a number 3 though I agree, to say he's anything less than a 1 is to be unrealistically picky."

Name 30 pitchers that are without a doubt better then Willis. I guarantee you that it's not possible. He is without a doubt an ace in this league.

[JoeyJr09]

One more thing. Edwin Jackson, Kaz Matsui were both rated as better prospects the Rios during his rookie year. But I'm sure since they were highly rated prospects back then they should be great players too. They are examples. Players are just as likely to tank as to star. Who knows what Rios will do. All you know up to this point is what he has done. You take into account his potential, and past performance and then you can get his value. Considering guys like Kaz and Edwin had more potential and have zero value that show you how far potenital gets you one you reach the MLB. Rios value is not worth any more the Nolasco, Petit and McCann.

[bobo]

Alright, I'll bite.

From JoeyJr, on Willis:

"He's 24 years old." - Who cares? Maybe this makes him a little more likely to improve, but we're talking about a pitcher who is under contract for 3 years, and it makes no difference whether he's 24, 26, or 28 in that case. If anything, in the context of this discussion, low age can be a negative, as he's already thrown a ton of pitches.

"He wasrunner up for the Cy Young at age 23." - I admitted he had one excellent season. He had a massive regression last year.

"He has a career 3.44 ERA." - This is heavily weighted by his 2005 season.

"He averaged 17 wins per season." - This is heavily weighted by his 2005 season. Plus wins are meaningless.

"And he has gone over 200 IP in two out of his 3 full seasons. (just missed on his thrid when he pitched 197). So on top of his good numbers he is a workhorse." - Lots of #2-3 starters do this.

"He also averages 5 CG per year and 2 Shutouts." - This is heavily weighted by his 2005 season. Plus these are fairly arbitrary stats with a lot of luck involved (eg. the difference 8 and 9 shutout innings is really not significant).

My take:

When I look at Willis, I see one great season and one that's average, in virtually every way. In 2006, his underlying stats (K/9, BB/9, K/BB, BABIP, and then even more "lucky" stats like WHIP, and BA) were all spot-on with the league average. If anything, he was lucky as his LOB% was high, which would explain his ERA below league average. His walk rate explosion in 2006 is particularly frightening.

He and Rios are very similar - they both had one good season. Like I said, this season will be very telling. For me, it will cement where in the rotation Willis falls: #1 (if his numbers are like 2005's), #3 (if his numbers are like 2006's), maybe a #2 (somewhere in between).

I readily admit that any of the above are possible. But there's just no way you can call him an ace after 2006.

bsox - "barry zito is called an ace but dontrelle isnt?" Barry Zito is called an ace by people who no nothing about baseball and look at ERA and wins only. Zito is basically the definition of league-average, good #3 starter by virtually every metric.

I'd take Willis over Zito, hands down, but right now, today, they are similar pitchers.

[Baseballfan79]

Actually Willis last year had the 5th worst run support in the majors if you look it up. As per reported on this website he should of had 15 wins if he had league average run support even. Which would of changed his record to a large degree.

The marlins defense last year was also the worst rated defense in the major leagues. Which also changed his stats by a large degree. Pressuring him to pitch different in the 1st half. If you notice his 1st to 2nd half splits last year it is obvious and he even admitted it himself. As did the coaching staff.

He is a top 5 lefty in baseball. Johan is 1st but after that is easy to make a case for him better then any other lefty in baseball. But, Johan is pretty much a Lefty Roger Clemens.

A package of Nolasco, Pettit and McCann would be interesting for both sides.

I could see a package like that getting it done. I could also see Josh Johnson perhaps even being sent to Toronto for Rios. It would be hard to turn him down if he was dangled. Last year he left the NL Most of the year in ERA, and lead the MLB into the late parts of the year (one part lirano and josh set the rookie record for how late in the year they shared the era time).

But, the marlns wont trade willis, olsen, sanchez and I doubt johnson (unless pressed). Pitching wins in baseball and they have a pitching staff that could be the next atlanta braves of the 90s.

[bobo]

"Actually Willis last year had the 5th worst run support in the majors if you look it up. As per reported on this website he should of had 15 wins if he had league average run support even. Which would of changed his record to a large degree."

Please - can anyone who even mentions wins be banned?

"The marlins defense last year was also the worst rated defense in the major leagues. Which also changed his stats by a large degree. Pressuring him to pitch different in the 1st half. If you notice his 1st to 2nd half splits last year it is obvious and he even admitted it himself. As did the coaching staff."

So are you talking about the 2nd half in which his WHIP was higher, BB rate was higher, HR rate was higher, and K rate was lower? If so then I totally agree. He did pitch differently in the first half. And by "differently", I mean "still pretty bad, but better than in the 2nd half."

Seriously - I know we have notions of what a player did. For example, I may remember so-and-so hitter doing much better against lefties than righties. But before I go spew on some internet site about it I at least look the stats up to make sure my belief was right.

If what you're saying about Willis "learning how to pitch the right way in the 2nd half" is true, than it's even scarier, because the results were worse.

[JoeyJr09]

"He and Rios are very similar - they both had one good season"

Your joking right? Willis only had one good season? He won rookie of the year in the 2003 season putting up a 3.30 ERA in 27 starts. Then two years later he becomes runner up in the Cy Young putting up a 2.63 ERA. Last season was a little tougher for him and he stil managed a 3.87 ERA on a young, inexperienced Marlins team. Rios is his only good season only hit 17 homers and 82 RBI an didn't even play ful time because of an injury.

"He had a massive regression last year."

If a 3.87 ERA is his massive regresion then he must be pretty damn good. Especially since that ERA was ranked as 26th best in all the MLB. Do you expect him to put up a 2.63 ERA every season? Because if that is your definition of an ace then you must also think there are only 1 or 2 aces in all of baseball.

"In 2006, his underlying stats (K/9, BB/9, K/BB, BABIP, and then even more "lucky" stats like WHIP, and BA) were all spot-on with the league average"

you do notice everything you are talking about has to do with strikeouts and walks. Strikeouts are the most overrated stat in baseball. Who cares how you get the guy out as long as you get him out without letting runs score. Walks are more important but you talk like Willis walked a ton of batters. He only walks 83. HOF Roger Clemens averages about 70 walks per season. How about you talk about more meaningful stats like IP, ERA, he allowed even less hits then his almost Cy Young season of 2005, plus the fact that he basically carries his team.

"I readily admit that any of the above are possible. But there's just no way you can call him an ace after 2006"

I stated this once before. There are thrity teams which mean thrity aces. Name me the best 30 pitchers in all of baseball. I guarantee you Willis is on that list.

"For me, it will cement where in the rotation Willis falls: #1 (if his numbers are like 2005's), #3 (if his numbers are like 2006's"

You must be nuts. According to you Willis needs to put up 2005 type numbers all the time to be an ace. Do you realize nobody in all of baseball last year had a season as good as Willis did in 2005. Were there no aces in baseball last season? Willis ERA that you are bashing last season was 26th best in the majors and still you think he's a number 3? You must think Mark Buehrle should be pitching out of the 5th spot and Kevin Millwood should be out of baseball all together.

[bobo]

JoeyJr09:

Please perform a few google searches on the following terms, study up, then come back.

"Voros McCracken"
"DIPS"
"BABIP"

"I stated this once before. There are thrity teams which mean thrity aces. Name me the best 30 pitchers in all of baseball. I guarantee you Willis is on that list."

I admit that some of the terminology we use is vague, and my use of the word "ace" is no better. I do not believe every team has an ace. Yes, Willis is among the best 30 starters in baseball, but that's based on his 2005 and his "expected" further performance (which is highly variable). In 2006, he was not among the top 30.

[Baseballfan79]

JoeyJr09

He is trying to make an illogical arguement to have the ends justify the means. He wants the fish to trade Willis for Rios, not going to happen. So he is trying to take his position and justify why another team should overspend for a player.

[bobo]

I don't want any team to trade for anyone. I claim that:

A) Willis is overrated
B) If Willis were a free agent after 2007 (which is not the case), it would be a good idea to trade him for Rios.

But yeah, maybe I just really really want the Blue Jays to trade for Willis, and maybe the Florida FO is reading my posts. I hope I can convince them!!

[eeleye99]

I actually disagree with bobo slightly. Willis numbers were better than league average last year, and I don't see what's wrong with his peripherals, they were all still very good. Homers, decent k/bb, hasn't really regressed....The only argument against him is pitching in the NL and in a pitcher's park, but I think at least the latter is a bit overrated. I'm not saying the Marlins should trade WIllis for Rios, because I know there is no way its happening anyway. I initially thought it was possible because I thought he had only 2 years of service time left, to Rios' 4, which makes it make sense on some level, if you believe in Rios. But a 1 year difference isn't enough. If you neutralize Willis' stats on baseball-reference.com, as if he played in the Rogers Center in 2006 every year of his career, his career ERA would be 4.15. Just a flash in the pan. I like Dontrelle though, he's awesome.

[bobo]

But all his peripherals were exactly league average! Check out fangraphs.com.

I agree with everything you're saying though, eeleye99. I first brought him up too because I though he was a FA sooner. Everyone likes Dontrelle (and to the guy who said he's not popular because he's black - get a life).

Of course he has the potential to be very good - he showed it in 2005. But you just can't call him a top starter (again, apologize for the vague terminology) after 2006. My guess is neither of them gets traded, and we'll really see after this year.

As an aside, I really hope the Jays don't trade Rios for a mediocre starter (well, as a Yankees fan, I hope they do, but as a baseball fan, I hope they don't). Who would they get? What is the real difference between the guys making $8-9M a year now, and the best the Jays can do from their farm system? Not too much, I bet...

[eeleye99]

Oh and btw, who did the Jays overpay? Not really anyone...You know what pisses me off? Check out this rumour?
From the rumours on foxsports:

[i]While keeping their eyes on another major trade involving one of their veteran starting pitchers, the White Sox are looking for a reserve outfielder and more help in the bullpen.[/i]

How would this not all fit with Reed Johnson and a bullpen guy (McGowan?) for one of their starters? Its the only good trade the Jays should do and actually fits well for another team. Jeez JP piosses me off, he trades anything else than this or doesn't just sign a guy on the FA market, then i'll be pissed at him.

[Baseballfan79]

I have always wondered why folks consider the AL east so great, when you consider the NL East last year scored more runs then the AL East did. And the AL East had a DH instead of a pitcher hitting. 3 of the top 10 offensive teams in baseball last year were in the NL East.

As for CWS, I dont see them moving another starter they already moved off 2. I would be very very surprised.

[JoeyJr09]

"I do not believe every team has an ace."

Every staff has an ace. Then comes the number 2 and 3. Thats why they are called aces. They are the best on the staff. You don't start the season by throwing your number 2. Some teams have worse pitching like the Rangers that start with Millwood who is more of a 2/3 and some have two or even three aces like the Braves of old with Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz.

"Yes, Willis is among the best 30 starters in baseball"

Explain to me how you can think a guy in one of the top 30 starters in baseball and then claim he is overrated.

"A) Willis is overrated"

It's just kind of mind bogging to me how you can say Willis is not an ace but that he is one of the top 30 pitchers in baseball and then you can say he is overrated after stating he is one of the best 30 pitchers. It looks like you are trying to find stats like strikeouts and are even trying to convince yourself that he is not one of the best SPs in all of baseball.

"In 2006, he was not among the top 30."

That's debatable. He stills threw over 200 innings and posted the 26th best ERA in the MLB and won double digit games on a bad team. Plus if you knew anything about the Marlins you would know that his leadership and attitude brought more to the team then just stats alone. He was arguably more vital to his team from an emotional standpoint then any other player all last season. Just cause his walk rate rose some doesn't mean he suddenly started to suck.I still think he was among the top 30 even last season.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"I have always wondered why folks consider the AL east so great, when you consider the NL East last year scored more runs then the AL East did."

The Mets were the runaway winners in the NL East. They came to Fenway and got schooled. You put the Blue Jays, or the Red Sox in the NL East, and they are your division champs hands down. Tampa the we can't win 70 games if our life depended on it, would finish ahead of the Nationals.

The Marlins young pitching staff would have been eaten alive by the OBP machines NYY, and the Red Sox. None of them would have lasted 5 innings. Then it's t-ball time against that bullpen. One of my favorite series every year is Red Sox v Phillies, cause I have an intense dislike of all Philadelphia franchises, and watching Ortiz crush the Phillies hearts last june in back to back games was joygasmic.

[GoBoSox420]

Willis not an ace is laughable. And to say he is a number 3 pitcher? Are you serious?

Maybe on a few teams in all of baseball would he be a 3. He would be a #2 without a doubt pretty much everywhere, and for MOST teams Willis would be their ace.

He had an amazing 05 season, but he doesnt have to keep up those numbers to be an ace. Hell 06 was not a bad season at all, if he could maintain a performance that is somewhere inbetween his 05 and 06 seasons, he would be one of the best lefty pitchers in the game for some time.

[bobo]

"Every staff has an ace. Then comes the number 2 and 3. Thats why they are called aces. They are the best on the staff."

Ok, fine. Odalis Perez is an ace.

I give up.

"Hell 06 was not a bad season at all."

I don't know how to make it any more clear. 06 was league-average by virtually every metric, except ERA. He was lucky to have an ERA that low. His ERA should have been in the low 4s.

Anyway, we are mostly fighting over what "Ace" means. I DO NOT consider there to be 30 aces in baseball. To me, Ace means bona-fide number one starter, without a doubt. A guy that you are actually surprised at when he goes and gives up more than 3 or 4 runs (something Willis does with great regularity).

Again, pretty subjective, but off the top of my head, the true aces are:

Schilling
Halladay
Santana
Sabathia
Harden
Smoltz
Zambrano
Oswalt
Clemens
Carpenter
Sheets
Webb
Peavy

There are others who are very close - guys on Detroit, LA, Wang, Mussina, etc. - but they just have some question marks. There are a few who if they were healthy (Liriano, Pedro) would definitely be on the list.

Some are injury risks - I've included those who look to be healthy to start 2007.

There is a 2nd tier of guys who are close to these. It consists of maybe 20-25 guys. I think Willis is in the middle of the pack of these.

That puts him
a) in the top 30, as I said - pretty much right around #30
b) not an ace, according to my definition

To sum up everything - by virtually any stat you want - VORP for example, Willis's 2006 is damn far from the top starters. Willis ranked 31st in 2006, but more importantly, the difference between him (40.5) and the top starters like I named above (say, average about 60 or 65) is LARGER than the difference between Willis and Miguel Batista (~25).

That's my point. Sure, I guess he's among the top 30, but that's not saying much, because the true aces are miles about the others in the top 30. The 30th ranked pitcher is much closer to the 80th than the 10th.

[GoBoSox420]

I said 06 was not a BAD season, which it wasn't. Then I said if he is somewhere between his 05 and 06 numbers he will be among the best lefties in the game

Fairly accurate?

[bobo]

Yes, but there's a lack of quality lefties right now. Depending on how close he is to 2005, he could join my list of "aces".

Right now I rank him as a pretty good, tier 2 starter assuming his 07 will be about halfway between 05 and 06. If he repeats 06, then he's really just average until he can prove otherwise.

[nrmax88]

If im picking up a pitcher to start a franchise with, I go Johan Santana, then Big Z, then D Train. There are only 2 pitchers in baseball I would rather have then D Train, taking everything into consideration. This guy is a stud. An absolute stud. Anyone who says he isnt has no business being a baseball fan.

[nrmax88]

"The Mets were the runaway winners in the NL East. They came to Fenway and got schooled. You put the Blue Jays, or the Red Sox in the NL East, and they are your division champs hands down."

LOL, so Boston is the automatic winner if they were in the NL east because they swept a 3 game series from the mets? I like your logic. The mets had Soler matched up with becket in that series, Pedro was pitching with a hip flexor, torn rotator cuff, and toe injury, and then schilling beat glavine in a pitchers duel thanks to an amazing catch by coco. Good points tho.Try comen to shea with a rookie, a badly injured pitcher, and then facing a healthy pedro and see how well you do. That arguement is a joke. The yankees owned the redsox , OWNED THEM in a 5 game series, so they are automatically winning the AL East. i can say unbelievably stupidshit to arodsucksatlife, you should just change your name to IsuckAtlife, it would be better.

[Baseballfan79]

I guess since the marlins swept the blue jays and the Blue Jays finished ahead of the Red Sox then the Marlins are better then both the red sox and the blue jays by the logic shown above :)

4 of the top 10 teams for runs scored last year were in the NL

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?statType=1&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&groupByTeam=true&sitSplit=&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2006&sortByStat=R

Phillies. Braves, Mets, Dodgers

You could say that marlins pitchers are at least battle tried when facing 3 of the top 10. All of whom are ranked higher then the precious red sox.

rankings in runs scored
AL East 1, 9, 12, 17, 30
NL East 4, 5, 7, 19, 23

AL East total 4,016 runs
NL East Total 4,052 Runs

On top of this the AL East uses a DH and they were outscored by the NL East.

Now that there is facts there with a link to mlb to show it. Would Arodsucks like to debate further?

Could it not be said that the marlins pitchers facing the 4,5,7, 23 ranked run scoring offenses were the best offenses total faced in baseball?

I think the whole AL is better then NL stuff is crap to the extreme it is taken.

As for Bob you are continuing to ignore the fact that the defense behind the pitcher and the run support of the pitcher do play into a major role for the pitcher. When you have the worst defense in the major leagues behind you, your pitching will suffer with unearned and earned runs. The biggest factor that hurt dtrain this past year was 3.

1. That crap world baseball classic which ruined his routine in spring training. Normally he is a hot start pitcher and that ruined that.

2. Losing his pitching coach and problems with the coach (Giradi is a moron)

3. Horrible defense and run support.

Willis is better then the following: Schilling, Sabbitha, Harden, Sheets, Peavy

As for the rest the whole point of this thread was supposed to be about Rios and realistic offers out there. We all have agreed there is no way the marlins would offer Willis out there.

Secondly the marlins havent even been linked to Rios' name yet (surprisingly there). If they were I would be very surprised if they offered anything more then a Nolasco and Pettit + something minor offer up for Rios.

[bobo]

"

If im picking up a pitcher to start a franchise with, I go Johan Santana, then Big Z, then D Train. There are only 2 pitchers in baseball I would rather have then D Train, taking everything into consideration. This guy is a stud. An absolute stud. Anyone who says he isnt has no business being a baseball fan."

Ok, if an ERA in the mid to high 3s is your definition of a stud, an absolute stud, then I agree completely. I call him a good pitcher.

Try to use some facts to back up your arguments too, try a little less profanity and name calling, and you'll come across a lot better.

I swear, sometimes I really think you and bsox are the same person, living out some weird split-personality Met fan/Red Sox fan 1986-all-over-again fantasy at the expense of the rest of us...

[JoeyJr09]

Sabathia- Your kidding right? Your talking about Willis high ERA last season. Sabathia in his 6 year career has ERA of 4.39, 4.37, 3.60, 4.12, 4.03, 3.22. Sabathia has has two seasons better then Willis worst. He's only broken the 200 innning mark once and that was 5 years ago. You knock Willis and call this guy an ace. Your a joke.

Harden- Has played a full season only once in his career. That season he put up a 3.99 ERA. He is the Al version of Mark Prior. Part of being an ace is being able to be depended on every 5th day liek Willis has been for 3 seasons. Harden hasn't been that for over 2 years.

Sheets- had a 3.82 ERA last season and has been injury prone his entire career. Has a 3.83 career ERA (close to half a run higher then Willis)

"Ok, if an ERA in the mid to high 3s is your definition of a stud, an absolute stud, then I agree completely. I call him a good pitcher."

Willis carerr ERA is 3.44. And look at the players that you mentioned among the best in the game that are worse the Willis. But yet you called them studs.

"Right now I rank him as a pretty good, tier 2 starter assuming his 07 will be about halfway between 05 and 06. If he repeats 06, then he's really just average until he can prove otherwise."

If he repeats last season then he is still better the the players mentioned above. You named 13 pithers and Willis is withotu a doubt better then at least 3 or then and you can make the case he's better then a handful of the others as well. Willis is not only top 30. He's top 15. He's an ace.

I get a little sick of pointless stats and scentific mmbo jumbo like BABIP, DIPS, and VORP. It's a joke. I've read up on all this stuff and I think it's a load of crap. This is baseball not science. It is not exact by any means which is what these stats try to make it. At what point do you throw out the science crap which has only been around for the last decade and look at his rtue stats liek his ERA, Wins, IP, and look at him on the field and see he is the total package as a baseball player. These stats have been around hundreds of years and still hold true. I get sick of people trying to reach for straws on scientic stats when all his real stats say he is a top player. It's like taking out the hottest girl in your high school class but then getting upset when she drives a Hummer instead of a Ferrari.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"The Mets were the runaway winners in the NL East. They came to Fenway and got schooled. You put the Blue Jays, or the Red Sox in the NL East, and they are your division champs hands down."

LOL, so Boston is the automatic winner if they were in the NL east because they swept a 3 game series from the mets? I like your logic. The mets had Soler matched up with becket in that series, Pedro was pitching with a hip flexor, torn rotator cuff, and toe injury, and then schilling beat glavine in a pitchers duel thanks to an amazing catch by coco. Good points tho.Try comen to shea with a rookie, a badly injured pitcher, and then facing a healthy pedro and see how well you do. That arguement is a joke. The yankees owned the redsox , OWNED THEM in a 5 game series, so they are automatically winning the AL East. i can say unbelievably stupidshit to arodsucksatlife, you should just change your name to IsuckAtlife, it would be better.

The getting owned at Fenway, and winning the NL East are two seperate points. But feel free to lump them together if it makes you feel better.

How did that whole interleague games thing go again?? For the past couple of years now. Oh yeah NL gets trounced by the AL. A-rod does suck at life, and you're a homer.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Wouldn't the fact that the Phillies, Braves and Mets were all such high scoring teams just show how mediocre the pitching is in the NL East?

[PeteRose]

"One of my favorite series every year is Red Sox v Phillies, cause I have an intense dislike of all Philadelphia franchises, and watching Ortiz crush the Phillies hearts last june in back to back games was joygasmic."

No.....you're the homer;)

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Interleague:

New York 10-8
Red Sox 16-2
Toronto 9-9
Tampa 11-7
Baltimore 9-9

Mets 6-9
Philly 5-13
Atlanta 5-10
Florida 9-9
Washington 7-11

[ArodSucksAtLife]

I've never denied being a biased Red Sox fan.

[PeteRose]

"The only reason America isnt going crazyover dontrelle is becuz he's black.

if he were whiute and hadthe same performance, every single person in america wouldbe wearing a dontrelle willisjersey."

This..... is absurd
Aside from its general ridiculousness- would African-Americans in America also prefer a white skinned Dontrell?

[DentalPlan]

Excuse me people, can we get back to the real matter at hand, which is talking smack about Alex Rios? Two great months does not a great player make. His OPS in those two months was propped up by a very high BA.

Stay away! If Alex Rios is a "clear stud in the making" than let's see in him in August! I doubt we'll be seeing "studly" numbers.

[Dev0]

"im picking up a pitcher to start a franchise with, I go Johan Santana, then Big Z, then D Train. There are only 2 pitchers in baseball I would rather have then D Train, taking everything into consideration."

this is the most insane thing I have ever seen. Anyone that would want Willis over Halladay is well plain stupid for that matter I would take Halladay over Zambrano. I'd be suprized if you could make a valid arguement sayign Halliday is not the 2nd best pitcher in the league.

[JoeyJr09]

"this is the most insane thing I have ever seen. Anyone that would want Willis over Halladay is well plain stupid for that matter I would take Halladay over Zambrano. I'd be suprized if you could make a valid arguement sayign Halliday is not the 2nd best pitcher in the league."

Keep in mind Halladay is 30 years old this season while Willis is only 25. When starting a team age in important and Santana, Willis and Z are all still young.

I think a better take would be who would you want throwing a big game for you. I'd go like this:

Santana
Clemens
Oswalt
Zambrano
Halladay
Schilling
Carpenter
Smoltz
Willis
Webb

Those are the top ten eyes.

[eeleye99]

This is a good comparison for Alex Rios. I see him as an Alfonso Soriano-lite. He won't max out as high, but has the speed and power, and doesn't walk a lot, and will probably be in the same area for average, as a safe bet (280's). But of course, better defence.

[JoeyJr09]

"This is a good comparison for Alex Rios. I see him as an Alfonso Soriano-lite. He won't max out as high, but has the speed and power, and doesn't walk a lot, and will probably be in the same area for average, as a safe bet (280's). But of course, better defence."

No way in hell is he even close to Soriano. He does have nearly the speed or power that Sori has and he doesn't strikeout nearly as much. A better comparison would be a Mike Cameron or Torii Hunter but with less defense then both.

[JoeyJr09]

Oh an by comparing him to Hunter and Cameron is what his potential is. Not what he is right now.

[Baseballfan79]

this is the most insane thing I have ever seen. Anyone that would want Willis over Halladay is well plain stupid for that matter I would take Halladay over Zambrano. I'd be suprized if you could make a valid arguement sayign Halliday is not the 2nd best pitcher in the league.

Thanks but I will take the 24 year old lefty that has never been injured in his career instead of the 30 year old righty that is injured all of the time. Plus willis is a marketing dream. He can easily be marketed and is one of the most likable people in MLB.

Wouldn't the fact that the Phillies, Braves and Mets were all such high scoring teams just show how mediocre the pitching is in the NL East?

Actually the pitching in the NL East was top notch if you look at the numbers. The NL East destroyed the rest of the NL just as the AL Teams did the rest of the NL.

I believe the fact that the braves, mets and phillies were 3 of the top 7 teams in run production only adds to the fact of how amazing the marlins pitchers were (all 24 and under, 10+ wins a piece and the 6th best ERA in the majors last year).

As for Rios it seems the fish have no interest in him so the whole point is moot, they are still after upton according to Rosenthal and Kevin Baxter.

Qwhy don't the marlins show interest in trade a for alex rios the blue jays need young pitching and alex is a perfect fit for centerfield
john, miami, fl 12/18/06
AWell, apparently the Marlins aren't sure he is a perfect fit. Centerfield at Dolphin Stadium is so huge the team really needs a speedster , which is why it's looking at people like Alex Sanchez and still considering Eric Reed and Reggie Abercrombie.
Kevin Baxter 12/18/06

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/sports/baseball/qa_forum.htm

Rather dumb move in my opinion but in beinfest I trust (how can you not after last years moves?)

[eeleye99]

notice how i said ?\"lite" dude, that he'd be a similar version to soriano but TONED down. he's most like that in most dimenisions than the guys you mentioned. jeez you people are just shit to argue with you put words in everyone's mouths and think your opinions are so right and your teams are so good while in the national league. I have a team in the easy league: the raptors in the nba, and its much easier to play shitty teams all the time and not that hard to make the playoffs.

[JoeyJr09]

"notice how i said ?\"lite" dude, that he'd be a similar version to soriano but TONED down. he's most like that in most dimenisions than the guys you mentioned"

Do younot notice how Cameron and Hunter put up stats in the same areas as Soriano yet at a must lower rate? Isn't that toned down?

"jeez you people are just shit to argue with"

Maybe the problem is that you are arguing while everyone else is trying to have an intelligent sports conversation.

"you put words in everyone's mouths and think your opinions are so right and your teams are so good"

And you don't act that way? You are being blindly talking up the Jays like they are the greatest thing since sliced bread. Back when you thought Willis only had two years on his contract you actually thought Rios might be able to net him. I guarantee you nobdy on this board thinks Rios can get Willis yet you stick by stupid statements like that and say we think our opinions are always right? And by the way of course we think our opinions are right, thats why we believe them in the 1st place.

"you think your teams are so good while in the national league"

This is getting rediculous already. The NL east was argably the best division in baseball last season outside of the AL central. Your almightly AL couldn't even beat the 83 win Cardinals. The NL had 4 teams in the top 10 in offense and 5 teams in the top 10 for pitching. They were split very even.

"its much easier to play shitty teams all the time and not that hard to make the playoffs."

They why did the so called shitty team beat you supposedly better team? The Al offense is slightly better due simply to the fact that they have a DH. That's about the only difference between the two leagues so you need to stop acting the AL is some almighty division because your statements are rediculous.

Some of you posts ar just downright stupid and youc an completely see tht you are a blind Jays fan without even thinking about other teams. At least I can bring up numbers and stats to back up the points I make for certain players and teams. All you do is talk about how people wouldn't survive in the AL east. At one point you mentioned Lieber wouldn't make it in the AL East even tho he ahs alraedy been in the AL East and proved to be effective. When you not talking about that you talk about potential. This guy can potentially do this or potentially do that and them say getting a guy liek Haren for Rios isn't fair and wouldn't be good for the Jays. The A's would never give up Haren for Rios. Pitching is a premium. Pitching wins, potenital doesn't do shit until you produce and Rios has not produced. At least rbing up numbers and stats to support you points. Telling me a guyhas potential means nothing. Jeremy Hermida has more potential then Rios will you trade Halladay for him? Didn't think so. Stop trying to talk bad about other people when at least they take the time to back up their points whhile you just sit there withh rose colored glasses on while you look at the Jays and talk bad about all the Nl teams for no reason.

[thenerbster]

OK JoeyJr....I agree with you that most people do blindly talk up the AL and the jays without knowing much about it (and this is coming from a jays fan) however is it not a little hypocritical the way that you talk up the NL? The AL did absolutely beat up on the NL last year...now does that mean much? Not really...but you do have to say that the AL was the better league last year. Were the cards the better team in the series? Of course...Were they the better team overall....probably not.

[JoeyJr09]

"I agree with you that most people do blindly talk up the AL and the jays without knowing much about it (and this is coming from a jays fan) however is it not a little hypocritical the way that you talk up the NL?"

I agree that the AL was the better league but not to the point that every pitcher that goes there will struggle which is basically was eeleye99 has done the entire time. They did beat up on the NL last season but to make statements that pitchers wil struggle just because they go the Al is just downright stupid. Was the AL better? Yes. Was it so much better to assume every pitcher then goes from the Nl to Al wil not make it? No wya in hell. There was even a comment that if Willis was in the AL his career ERA would be 4.15 instead of 3.44. I mean come on. Could you write more stupid shit then that?