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Plan E For The Mets

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa, Barry Zito and Jeff Suppan are off the board.  The Mets want one more solid starter, but don't need to do anything desperate. 

One option is to hit up Billy Beane for Rich Harden or Danny HarenBob Klapisch reports that Omar Minaya spoke to Beane ten days ago, hoping for a deal of Aaron Heilman and Lastings Milledge for Harden.  Beane countered with Carlos Gomez and one of Milledge/Philip Humber/Mike Pelfrey.  Those talks are proposals are pretty far apart.

There's speculation the Mets could trade for Jake Peavy, Dontrelle Willis, Brad Penny, Jon Lieber, Rodrigo Lopez, Javier Vazquez, or Jon Garland.  Right now that appears to be pure speculation.  It's doubtful that the White Sox would deal yet another starter, though Mike Pelfrey could convince Kenny Williams to continue dismantling.

John Delcos says Jeff Weaver wants a four-year, $40MM deal.  Taking a one-year deal last winter was a wise choice for Weaver despite his lousy 2006.  If the Mets do that, it would be a desperation move.

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There will be no trades for Harden. The a's no longer have zito! So there rotation would suck without Harden.

If the mets do not pick up a starter this offseason, THEY WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS! The Braves and Marlins especially are too strong with the Marlins now having a more expirienced team and the Braves getting a lot of their pitchers returning from injury (Hampton, Boyer, Davies, Stockman) and a real major league bullpen capable of holding leads. If Minaya goes into the season sporting a rotation of
1. Glavine
2. El Duque
3. Maine
4. Perez
5. Pelfrey

and a pretty sufficiently average bullpen they will not even make a wildcard. The teams around them are quietly improving and this offseason they have gotten drastically worse

Kenny Williams does not want to trade another starter, given that he has been criticized for his two major moves thus far. He is probably asking for a ridiculous amount, and just seeing if Minaya caves (Pelfrey, Humber and Milledge). I cant see that happening.

"Beane told the Mets it would take Milledge, Philip Humber or Mike Pelfrey and Carlos Gomez, a 20-year-old can't-miss prospect, to complete a deal for Harden or even Dan Haren."

I interpret this to mean 3 players:

Milledge
Humber or Pelfrey
Gomez

The gap between Humber + Gomez and Heilman + Milledge doesn't seem all that big to me, so I suspect Beane wants 3.

Beane's calling the shots here - Harden is immensely valuable, despite his injury concerns, so he can ask for the world and has nothing to lose by keeping him.

I think the Mets are just in awful shape. It's hard for me to predict a sub 4.5 ERA for anyone on that staff, except for maybe Pelfrey.

Kenny gives less than a damn about critisism. He doesnt operate that way.

That said if Omar were to cave he would definitely trade another starter.

Its pretty unbelievable to think that the White Sox, who had no real pitching prospects going into this offseason, could leave with
Danks
Masset
Gio
Floyd
Pelfrey
Humber

Im not saying that will happen, I'm just saying thats a lot of young, cheap, talented pitching.

in addition to broadway and haeger. even though they have a lower ceiling, they're still solid. same with mcculluch, although he's pretty fresh from the 2006 draft.

Mel(k)yrules, you can't ever say Beane won't do something. 90% of GMs would never consider trading Mulder and Hudson in the same offseason, rather they'd hold onto one or both and just get the draft pick compensation. Beane has a strong sense of how to build for the future as opposed to simply thinking short term. If he sees Harden as a potential Prior type case but without the full Prior depreciation (for lack of a better word), he may try to move him for a package of top prospects to mitigate the risk. Its not like a rotation of Haren, Blanton, prospect (assuming they pull a ML ready pitcher in return) and Loaiza wouldn't be able to compete in the AL West.

BoBo

you cant predict a sub 4.5 era for anyone on the staff accept maybe Pelfrey? Are you serious with that statement?

Did Glavine forget how to pitch over the off-season? How about John Maine? and you pick the biggest question mark in the rotation to excel? O-K

Hahahaha, I love how Met's fans really think they have a shot at Harden or Haren, what a joke! The A's won the AL West last year and they've lost arguably their BEST pitcher! Billy Beane does not rebuild - so how exactly will he compete again next year after he trades either Harden or Haren? And don't point to them trading Mulder and Hudson, those 2 were heading into their last arbitration-eligable seasons, so they were going to be gone after that next year anyway... Haren still has another 3 YEARS of arbitration AFTER 2007! And Harden another 2!!!

Just keep wishing Muts fans... but remember this, wish in one hand, sh!t in the other, I can guarantee you which one will fill up faster!

I'm just not a Glavine fan. He had a fluky-high K rate in the first half. He has consistently proven me wrong, so at some point I'll have to give in. But my prediction would be his 2nd half numbers for 2006.

Maine's BABIP was freakishly low last year. His HR rate is awful. He'd have to improve a lot to keep his ERA below 4.

Maybe 4.5 is pushing it, but my point remains.

The Mets should look into trading for some legit depth instead of hanging out their fans' hopes in pipedreams...Harden is not going to be traded...if Beane has shown us anything, he likes to hold onto his younger better players under their controlled years, unless he's getting a King's Ransom...for ML pitchers that has typically been 3 prospects (1 A or B+ prospect hitter, 1 A or B+ prospect pitcher, and perhaps another B or C+ prospect)...if the Mets are willing to clean out their limited system, then go for it...but the question of Harden breaksdown like this if you're a Mets fan:

Do you want to give up 3 top prospects which will leave the farm among the worst in the MLs to get Harden?

OR

Would you compromise the cost in prospects by trading for a #3 type of pitcher elsewhere?

El Duque the Mets No. 2? God Bless the Mets.

Hey hey, come on now, the Mets don't need any starting pitching... After all, they've got LASTINGS MILLEDGE!!! LOL...

For instance, if you take a look at Rodrigo Lopez, he is a typically mediocre pitcher but surely not much better or worse than Woody Williams, Suppan, Piniero, Meche, Lilly...if you take a look at his Baseball Prospectus Translated stats he didn't actually pitch much worse than his '05 season in '06...he looked like he was a clear victim of the worst bullpen in baseball last year...aside from that things you could expect from Rodrigo is:

~180-200 IP, 4.50-5.00 ERA, 6-6.5 K/9, ~2 K/BB.

...that's not going to lead a staff anywhere but he's done that consistently every year in a very tough AL EAST where 33% of his starts come against the Yankees and BoSox...I'd bet that there's some real room for improvement if he'd move to the NL EAST...forgive the comparison, but Pedro even enjoyed a late career push from moving to that division after suffering some "off" years ("off" years only for Pedro)...

...and, earlier this offseason, trade talks with the Orioles have been for players like Kevin Mench or Marcus Thames for Rodrigo, more or less straight up...another thing about Rodrigo is that considering what all of those other medirocre pitchers are getting (~10M/YR), Rodrigo will be making ~3-4.5M after arbitration...that's cheap starting pitching with some possible reward if you ask me...

...Another seemingly marginal pitcher who made a big AL-to-NL conversion was Bronson Arroyo...Arroyo was a guy in the BoSox staff who seemed like a Heilman type who might swing more to the SP side of SP/RP...when he left the AL EAST for the NL, as we all know, he exploded...

Arroyo also benefited from a .274 BABIP in 2006 while being right around league average in K9 and HR9 (with a better than average BB9). Odds are his success was as much luck as it was AL to NL translations.

I could be wrong, but .274 isn't that lucky, right? Isn't the average about .290? Would that make a big difference?

I was just saying that a trade for Rodrigo would come relatively cheap...the Orioles are looking for some power at either LF or 1B...they have been stocking up on a lot of OF/DH/1B types in the majors and minors hoping a few of them might manage a decent platoon...if the Mets had a trade chip in those areas, I think the Os would be willing to part with Rodrigo...

"Hahahaha, I love how Met's fans really think they have a shot at Harden or Haren, what a joke! The A's won the AL West last year and they've lost arguably their BEST pitcher! Billy Beane does not rebuild - so how exactly will he compete again next year after he trades either Harden or Haren? And don't point to them trading Mulder and Hudson, those 2 were heading into their last arbitration-eligable seasons, so they were going to be gone after that next year anyway... Haren still has another 3 YEARS of arbitration AFTER 2007! And Harden another 2!!!"

Wow, you got every last contract detail wrong here. Neither Hudson or Mulder were arbitration eligible when traded, both were under contract. Hudson was in the last year of his contract and eligible for free agency at the end of the 2005 season. Mulder had two seasons left on his contract when he was traded, which is why he's a free agent now. Harden is signed through 2008, with an option for 2009. Haren is signed through 2009, with an option for 2010.

Seeing as how Harden missed most of this season, I don't think would be that difficult to survive next year without him at all. Trading him for a package of Pelfrey and Milledge, or Humber, Heilman, and Milledge would give the A's at least one arm in the rotation to replace Harden. Haren, Loaiza and Blanton isn't a bad place to start a rotation. I think Humber, Heilman, and either Milledge or Gomez would do the trick, as both arms could potentially fit in the back of the rotation.

I wouldn't bet the least bit surprised to see Beane trade either Harden or Haren this offseason, as the value of pitching seems to be at an all time high. BB believes in capitalizing on market ineffeciencies, and right now the severe lack of quality SP is one best ways he can do this.

The NL East is up for grabs. The Mets will not run away with it like they did it '06. The Marlins may still be a couple years away from contending. I think the Braves have the best team heading into spring training right now. If both Hampton & Hudson pitch like their old selves, Smoltz is dominant again, and Chuck James and Kyle davies win 10-12 games a piece, Atlanta will win 100 games in 2007. They finally have a bullpen, and the core of their offense is still there. Marcus Giles will not be missed. Andruw Jones will have your typical Andruw year, (.270/40/110/gold glove defense). If Chipper can stay healthy, he is still capable of putting up .300/26/100 type numbers. Jeff Francoeur, if he can start staying patient at the plate, could put up .280/30/100 numbers. Let's hope Atlanta sticks with LaRoche. A .275/25/100 line wouldn't shock or disappoint anyone. I love Brian McCann. That boy can play. His '06 season wasn't a fluke. Right now, the Braves need a LF. That's their only weak spot.

That is the funniest post I have ever read, the braves should win 100 games if they also solve the crisis in the middle east and reverse global warming as those two things are much more likely than Hampton/Hudson returning to form, Francouer staying patient or Chipper staying healthy.

The world series was just won by Jeff Weaver, Jeff Suppan, a sub par performance by Chris Carpenter and Anthony Reyes, the mets will be fine for the 1st 1/2 of the year going with what they have, seeing how Pedro's rehab progresses and dealing for an arm during the yr.

Yeah that Braves bullpen is just dominant.

" I think the Braves have the best team heading into spring training right now." HAHA That is just an absurd comment

Big if but I believe that if the season started today the braves would be the second best team after the Phillies in the division and they still have Lieber to play with. I don't necessarily want to see LaRoche go but if he can fill the LF/2B leadoff hole and give an arm for depth in the bullpen/rotation I am all for it. I still say LaRoche to the Orioles for Penn and Ray. Then we got the arms to get a Baldelli minus James though. Davies, Ray & Escobar for Baldelli.

Bobo, the NL average was .306, AL was .303 (according to Baseball Prospectus). Out of the 138 pitchers with 100+ IPs last year, Arroyo's .274 was 18th lowest so he was definitely well on the lucky side.

(For those who care, the 5 lowest were Chris Young (.232), Jared Weaver, Anibal Sanchez, Scott Elarton and Chuck James; 5 highest were Ryan Madson (.364), Victor Santos, Jason Johnson, Odalis Perez and Byung-Hyun Kim.)

"I still say LaRoche to the Orioles for Penn and Ray."

Is there any way to block out unrealistic deals that swing heavily towards the poster's favorite team from my computer?

basemonkey, the mets do have depth, that is the one thing they have when it comes to starting pitching. Last year they were forced to give guys like Jeremi Gonzales and Limatime starting spots when guys went down., Omar has made sure this wont happen anymore. Vargas, Williams, Pelfrey, Humber, Soler,Mulvey can all be spot starters, and they will be fine in that department. I love when people say the Mets have drastically gotten worse. It is hysterical. The braves and marlins have gotten better? Was385, that was a real bad post. The marlins should be expected to take a step backwards. Everyone on their team played over their heads ;last year, and they fired the manager of the year. They are all kids and after a big year like last year, and the expectations coming this year, i wouldnt be surprised if they lose 90 games. I said they would compete last year and i was called and asshole and all sortsof names. The Braves arent very scary. The phillies are the one team who is a threat in the East, not the braves or the marlins, but still, there isnt a team in the Nl East who has gotten drastically better like you said. The mets havent gotten worse either, I dont know why people keep saying this. Everyone always says middle relievers are the most irratic type of baseball players there are year to year, and they are the easiest to replace, ok, so then why does everyone say the mets are so much worse because they lost bradford and hernandez and oliver. Bradford was a bigger loss then the other 2, because you can pull and long man out of a garbage somewhere, and Bert barely even got to pitch with the mets. Still though, its not the end of the world losing bradford. Hailman, Sanchez, Wagner, thats a disgusting 7 8 9 tandem. Then Feliciano, Adkins, Mota after 50 games, Burgos, what is wrong with this bullpen? Nothing is, it is the best pen in the NL, again.Sure the mets starters arent great, so what? They arent any worse then last year, where the mets dominated the NL and had the 3rd best pitchinbg staff in the league.Not getting Zito isnt a bad thing, he simply isnt that good, and who knows how he wouldve reacted to the big apple. Whoever the 5th starter is going to be, he will be replacing Trachsel, so the rotation cant be any worse then last year. Its the same guys, and one new guy. I dont wana here that pedro is hurt because he was a non factor after april last year anyway. The mets improved their offense adding Alou to bat 6th. What team has a better number 6 hitter then Alou. I still dont understand why people think the mets have gotten so much worse. The phillies are the only team who has done anything that might make up the 10 or so games they finished out last year, but even that is pushing it. Freddy Garcia, flyball pitcher coming to pitch in a great hitters park. Adam
Eaton, need I say more, those guys really dont scare me very much.

"That is the funniest post I have ever read, the braves should win 100 games if they also solve the crisis in the middle east and reverse global warming as those two things are much more likely than Hampton/Hudson returning to form, Francouer staying patient or Chipper staying healthy"

I was thinking the same thing. All i say in there is like 10- 15 IF's. IF THE QUEEN HAD BALLS SHED BE KING

Not even 3 months after the Cardinals win the World Series despite only winning 83 games, and we already have people declaring that the Mets, the only team that anyone thought stood a chance against the better AL teams last year, won't be able to make the playoffs despite the fact that they haven't really lost anything this offseason. That's amazing.

Thank you pinetar. A lot of it is angry met fans that are complaining to whoever will listen because Zito is out west. They think that by complaining Omar will somehow listen to them or care what these knuckleheads say. Besides the fact that the mets havent gotten worse (their lineup may actually be better), what team has done any serious improving? The Phillies picked up Garcia and Eaton, nothing scary, Braves got Soriano, also very nice deal but enough to make up 15 games in the standings? The Marlins are still so young, and I wouldnt expect them to repeat last years performance with a new skipper and bigger expectations. The nats are a joke. Not very scared. Oh yeah, and the season dont start for 3 months

Doesn't losing Bradford and Oliver, a half a year of Pedro and a third of a season of Mota count as losing something? And aren't you supposed to say Amazin' when referring to the Mets?

i maybe a braves fan but even i think that post was ridiculous. Francoeur will be his same self with 4 foot strikezone. i just have to say one thing, i think Terry Pendelton over the next couple of years will straighten him out, but not this year. if he got on base he could steal about 20 bases because he is pretty fast. anywayz moving on, our bullpen is alot better than it was last year. We have a good closer in Wickman and a good setup man in Soriano. then we have Yates, McBride, Villareal, Cormier, etc. the point is the bullpen isnt great, but it will get the job done. i highly doubt we get Penn and Ray for LaRoche, if anything we get him for Melky or Baldelli. our lineup is good with Chipper, Andruw, McCann(the kid can rake), LaRoche, Francoeur, and Renteria. our starting rotation will have Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, James, and Davies. Thats pretty solid if u ask me. anywayz the point is we are not the best team right now, but we are a few breaks from winning the East, though i expect we will be heated with the Mets, Phillies, and Marlins.

Pedro pitched 132 innings to end up with a 9-8 record & 4.48 ERA. He can easily do just as good in half the year next year. They didn't have Mota all year anyways & he only pitched in 18 games for the Mets so I'm sure he'll surpass that anyways. Oliver only pitched in 45 games. Bradford made the only full-year contribution out of these players. I'm sure they'll be missed a little, but mid-rotation guys are nowhere near the most important part of the team.

Yes pinetar hand, and Bradford was picked up for nothing in the winter of 05, and we now have draft picks because of him. If you look at bradfords 05 numbers, nothing special, same thing with Adkins, era right under 4, same sort of pitching style. Olivers loss makes absolutely no difference whatsoever. At all.Like i said, Pedro was a nonfactor in 06 anyway, atleast after april was over. How come in the AL east, where teams have been making MUCH bigger improvements then in the NL east, nobody says the yankees arent going to make the playoffs. They have also been standing still for most of the offseason. They have made some minor deals, acquiring minor league and young talent, but so have the mets. The redsox have gotten MUCH better, and the Jays have re signed Wells and will also contend. I dont see why the mets have to have a pitcher now. As somebody said earlier, the mets will be fine for the first few months, and they can see how Pedro is coming along. If a pitcher is needed, then make a trade during the season, like they did for El duque this year. Whats with the hating on el duque anyway? He was very good pitching for the mets with a4 ERA that was only even the high because of 2 or 3 very bad starts, the rest were good enough to get them a win. The mets will be fine

I meant middle relief, not mid-rotation.

As for trading all those guys for Harden, no thank you. He hasnt stayed healthy at all. Doncorbuleon, or whatever your stupid name is, what mets fans said we have a shot at harden anyway. I wouldnt trade gomez in a deal yet unless he is a piece for a serious stud. I also wouldnt trade pelfrey at all because he is close to being ready, and he is the power arm the mets need. Just wait haters, Yankee fans hating on the mets should worry about their own team, because boston and toronto are more of a threat to the yankees then the phillies and braves are to the mets

NRMax, you can't say losing Oliver "makes no difference". Granted, I don't think anyone would expect a repeat of his 2006, but *someone* has to replace that production (based on VORP, he was the Mets 4th most valuable pitcher last year). Bradford was strong situationally and Mota pitched very well for them down the stretch. Just because the players themselves may have performed over their head doesn't mean their value is automatically replaceable.

I can say losing oliver makes no difference. Watch this. Losing oliver makes no difference, it isnt that hard, see? Any one with an arm can be a long reliever, as long as u can eat those innings, who cares if u have a 2.5 era, or a 10.5 era. Oliver came in when the mets were getting killed. It didnt matter if he gave up runs or not, because the game was over at that point. He in unbelievably replacable. I dont care what VORP says, a long reliever isnt very important and can be gotten anywhere.To say that Darren Oliver was more important to the mets then Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman, Feliciano, Bradford, Glavine, Maine, El duque is a joke. This is one of the pointless stats that doesnt mean anything. And all u do is call good pitchers lucky. Why are they lucky, because they got guys out? Its called being a good pitcher, not lucky. You dont just get lucky for a whole year in a row. Why dont u watch some baseball instead of using stats so u can say something ridiculously stupid such as.... Oliver was the 4th most valuable pitcher on the mets. Any real baseball fan would know this is all bullshit

Your reading comp stinks. I said "based on VORP, he was the Mets 4th most valuable pitcher last year" with "based on VORP" being a huge qualifier in the sentence. If I thought he was actually the 4th most valuable, I wouldn't have qualified the comment.

And he did have 4 wins and 3 holds so atleast 7 of his appearances were in key spots that will have to be accounted for.

Listen, I get that you're a super fan who watches and absorbs every play of every game so you have no use for stats but for those of us without those abilities, the numbers actually do tell a story.

I like stats dude, i just dont base everything in life on stats. If a pitcher is good, i Say he had a good year, not he was lucky.

Nor do I. My choice of muffin this morning was strictly based on current urges, no analysis necessary.

And a good season and being lucky aren't mutually exclusive; far from it actually. The difference is (again) in the numbers. Oliver is a career 5.00 ERA pitcher and last year he dips to the mid 3.00s in 80 IPs. Did he suddenly get good or was it luck? I look at his insanely low .248 BABIP and rather uninspiring peripherals (avg K/9, good BB/9, awful HR/9) and call it luck. That's me.

These stats are very important to people who can't watch every game. They give value to players that are hard to give value to, like logistics to watch trend in retail. Oliver did competently pitch 81 innings. 27 of the 45 games he pitched in were decided by 4 runs or less. He only had 2 or 3 bad outings. He was good at what the Mets wanted him to do. Either way, he is replaceable & these middle relievers go up & down year by year. Having a few more pitchers start 30 games as well as another decent long reliever can replace what they lost in Oliver. It doesn't have to be only 1 player that replaces all the value they lost in Oliver, especially with all the other competent relievers the Mets have such as a full year from Sanchez.

Again, I'm not saying Oliver and Bradford aren't themselves replaceable; they're far from that. Their 2006 production, on the other hand, is *very* difficult to replace. Between the two, the Mets are losing 143 IPs at a 3.21 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Regardless of who is asked to step into their roles, that's quite a bit to expect.

nrmax, please go look at the current Mets rotation.


glavine
el duque
maine
perez
pelfrey


Are you really telling me the Mets can win with this kind of rotation? I agree with you that the Mets didn't drastically get worse but they still got worse in some way. Any decent offense in the NL can beat up on this staff forcing the Mets to go to the bullpen early and often which will eventually make them ineffective in the playoffs if they even make it that far. The offense has gotten slightly better but as we all learned last year from the yankees (and I'm a yankee fan by the way) offense doesn't mean jackshit in the playoffs if you don't have an effective starting rotation that can eat up innings and keep you in the game everyday. And with the bullpen tiring out over the reg. season, they will not be able to bail out the starters if they get into trouble (which is almost guaranteed with this kind of rotation).

ramaboy, not a single starter had 200 innings for the Mets last year, yet they were tied for the best record in baseball. They used 12 different starters.

If your Yankees have proved one thing, it's that a good lineup can at least get you to the playoffs on a consistant basis.

That said, pitching is important to winning once in the playoffs, but the Cardinals proved last year that it's not about having the best pitchers, just the hottest ones. Anything can happen come playoff time.

Thank you pinetar, you continue to prove my points. Also, this is the same rotation the mets won 97 games with. This is my point. Pedro was a non factor last year. The offseason isnt over. Im not worried, and yes i do believe they can and will win with that rotation. the mets dont have a great rotation but neither does any other team, not to the point where it will offset the mets offense in the regular season. The mets offense and bullpen make up for their below average starters. They will be fine. Perez will have a much better year then people expect him to.

Have the mets even breezed a thought about resigning Trachsel?

I'm sorry but I still think this rotation is in for a long season unless Pelfrey or Humber become Dontrelle Willis circa 2003 and dominates the league. But baseball is a crazy sport and anything can happen at any given time.

glavine
el duque
maine
perez
pelfrey

...if the Mets fans seriously think that having a guy like Maine as their #3 SP is going to bode well for them then I think their living in dreamland...I don't think Maine is a bad pitcher and could turn out to be a ML average typical #3 SP eventually...but counting on him to be a middle rotation starter which typically demands at least a 180-200 IP/~4.00 ERA type of performance when he's never pitched over 90 IP in the majors is a major risk for a contender...I'm not saying it can't happen...but going into the season with this current rotation means that that it HAS to happen for the Mets to get back to the playoffs...one of the bigger concerns with Maine when he was a Oriole minor leaguer was his stamina and that he'd wear down after 100 IP...so far he hasn't quite been tested in that department as a Met...

...having a pitcher like Maine come out of nowhere to take over the #4 or #5 slot middle-late in the year 2006 was a great boon...but that's a far cry from coming out of ST with that...and, as far as Perez and Pelfrey, both can be very good pitchers eventually but niether are the type that is likely to hit the ground running like, say, Verlander did...both are very good prospects/young players but niether were mega-prospects...

The difference between this time last year and today is that losing Pedro really hurts...having two legit #1 and #2 SPs anchors the whole rotation where the GM is able to fit in pieces around them...without Pedro, you're counting on depth of young pitchers who all more or less likely will need more time to adjust to the majors...

Why would the mets even consider signing Steve Trachsel? Pelfrey could totally suck and he'd still be better then Trachsel. The mets are in a world of trouble if they bring back a guy like Steve Trachsel.

I won't blame omar for deciding to stick with the young arms and hope they turn out better then to rely on guys like Jeff Weaver, Rodrigo Lopez or a Jon Garland who have proven that they aren't very good. I wouldn't sign Jeff Weaver to a silly long-term contract nor give up carlos gomez or pelfrey/humber but signing someone like Ohka makes a lot of sense.

Honestly can't see the marlins or phillies wanting to help out the mets, perhaps the mets should hire the pitching mercenary Roger Clemens for a 1 year 25 million dollar deal. Though I can see him get about 35 after zito got 18.

Also how does this logic losing pedro really hurts the mets? He was good for TWO months, thats 8 starts, and was either injured or flat out terrible in june july august and september. The mets might end up getting MORE then 8 good starts from pedro this year if hes back by the ASB, so wouldnt the rotation be better?

I don't get how you can say Beane has the guts to trade Harden just because he traded Mulder. Don't you remember he got Haren back, and Haren is now one of the better pitchers in baseball and still improving. With Hudson they got two prospects and Juan Cruz. They turned Cruz into Halsey and Halsey has done well. Beane knows what he is doing so if he does decide to trade Harden you can bet that he'll get the best of it.

Atobe im confused. you dont want Jon Garland and yet u want Ohka who is coming off of surgery. Garland is a much better pitcher

I just wanted to point out that Beane didn't offer Harden for those guys...that is pure Klap speculation. Read the article. He made an assumption based on what Beane said on a conference call. He has no basis for his analysis. Does anyone really believe that he'd want Milledge and Gomez? I'm sure he'd take one or the other, Pelfrey or Humber (who both project to be = to or greater than Harden/Haren, and Heilman. That would be quite the remarkable bounty for an injury plagued dude. Similar to what the Marlins got for Beckett, another oft injured "ACE". As a Mets fan I say keep the kids, and sign Weaver. With all the money coming off the books next year, Omar can throw a ton of Money at C Zambrano. That would give a rotation of C Zam, Pedro, Perez,Maine, Pelfrey/Humber. WIth The other taking over the following year when Pedro retires. That could be a great rotation with one super over paid player, and a bunch of cheapies.

bravesrule, what I mean is theres no point in trading for Garland if it's going to cost the mets Pelfrey/Humber, and Ohka makes sense for that reason because he has shown flashes of being pretty good and I seriously doubt he's going to get a 4/40 deal like Weaver is trying to get, not to mention I think he's better then Weaver who has already failed once in the city of NY before.

I think Garland would have a great year pitchin for the Mets. In that ballpark with that defense behind him. I hate the mets but i can admit they look to have a great defense. And you bring up alotta things about Pedro was a non factor and all that. Well the Braves didn't have Wickman for the whole year either. And as far as me sayin LaRoche for Ray and Penn I am only sayin the most realistic rumor I have heard. No way I want to see Melky for LaRoche either. We should get more than Melky. Melky and Proctor its done in a heartbeat.

Glavine
El Duque
Perez
Maine
Pelfrey/Humber/Vargas/Niese

+ The Best Lineup In Baseball

+ One of the best, and potentially THE best pen in baseball.

+ Solid Defense (great at SS and CF)

+ Rick Peterson

+ No disasterous contract for mediocre Zito.

+ Omar is my daddy.


Fuck all of you. I'm happy with my squad.

Let's go to war you bitches!

Whoa, I'm not sure Humber or Pelfrey project out to Harden, atleast if we're talking ceilings. Harden has the potential to be a dominant, top 10 MLB starter *if healthy*. While either or both of the Mets prospects could end up surpassing Harden due to his injury issues, I don't think they have equal projections.

Please, the Mets do NOT have the best lineup in baseball...that's just laughable...several American teams would out hit them any day. And to say they can make the playoffs with that rotation, as it now stands, is very, very bold. The NL East is generally better now, and so the coming season will be tougher on the Mets staff. If I were a betting man (which I'm not) I'd see the division ending like this: Phillies, Mets, Marlins, Braves, with the wild-card coming out of the central division.

"Fuck all of you. I'm happy with my squad.

Let's go to war you bitches!"

Hell Yeah, Fuck these haters. Gadamer, you mentioned that several american league teams. Which ones? The mets have the most dynamic lineup in baseball, best mix of power, speed, average hitters, spray hitters, station to station guys, left right left right. I guess I am bold because I will pretty much gauruntee the Mets win the East. Why would you think the WC would come out of the Central, the central is absolutely awful

Its funny that only non met fans talk about the mets like they suck. I am a pessimist and i am extremely happy with their team. For mets fans who watched games last year and saw how the mets would win, this is fine. We havent lost any important people, and like many people said. You have 2 pitchers in Humber and Pelfrey maybe 3 with Mulvey, who will be able to pitch in the major leagues within 2-3 years tops. Why sign Zito to the joke of a contrract he signed and financially strap the team for years. If your going to sign a pitcher, wait till next year and break the bank for sabathia or zambrano ( Real Aces)

Hey Not Joe,

BA said that Pelfrey projects as an Ace, #1 starter. Humber projects as a #2. Right now, Harden projects as an Ace as well. If healthy. Pelfrey is Healthy. You can't do better than "Ace". So yes, Pelfrey does project at the same level as Harden. If he finds a secondary pitch, he'll be one of the elite pitchers in the game.

Not all aces are made alike though...there were years when Kevin Appier was an ace...so was Brad Radke...and so does Chris Carpenter...but Pelfrey does not project like Harden does...simply because of the difference in stuff, Harden projects as the kind of Ace who absolutely dominates ML batters into submission (a la Pedro, Prior pre-injury, Oswalt, etc..)...Pelfrey has a very good sinking 92-95 mph FB...Harden has an unprecictably live high 90s FB...the difference right there is huge...

I have to agree here with basemonkey, ace is not a level of ability. Zach Duke is technically the Pirates ace and Johan Santana is the Twins ace, would you trade Santana for Duke?

Nrmax88,

American League teams with better lineups: Yankees, Red Sox, and White Sox, and possibly Twins and Tigers, and I might even say the Rangers, Blue Jays, and Angels. You say the Mets are guaranteed to win the East? I'm sorry, but they had a great season last year, things really fell their way, but I'm simply not convinced their lineup can reproduce those numbers. Second base is very questionable for them, as is left field now with 41 Alou. But their biggest problem is their pitching staff, which with one long-term injury (El Duque anyone?) is in desperate straits.

Why do I think the WC comes out of the Central? The Cubs are much improved (enough, I don't know, also a pitching staff issue, though I believe Prior will come back and fill out the staff), the Brewers look better with a good staff and lineup, the Cardinals are always well coached, and Astros have potential.

Im not even going to argue with you. ANgels and Twins? Tigers? LMAO. Your a joke . Ill give you the Yankees, and probably the Redsox, and the Indians, which your stupid ass forgot. Keep in mind the stadium the Mets play in. I dont care what you say dude, the Mets lineup is top 5 even top 3 in baseball. Besides the yankees, who comes even close to matching the mets 1-6
Reyes
Duca
Beltran
Delgado
Wright
Alou

Why is Alou questionable in LF, he is one of the best run producers in baseball? So what he s 41, RJ is like 43 and you idiots think he should get back like 5 starters for him. Basemonkey also doesnt know much about Pelfrey, as shown by his post. Pelfrey was up for about 5 starts, and hitting 97 and 98 with his fastball, not 92, and his 2 seam fastball is FILTHY. Basemonkey, stop acting like you know what your talking about when you know you dont. You should work for monday night football. You would fit right in

Gadamer whos your team?

I am going to guess Gadamer is a cubs fan

nrmax88,

First, I respect the passion for your team, but why such childish name calling? You can call my ideas bad or silly or unsubstantiated, but what's with the "dumb ass" comment?

Second, last time I checked, what team I cheer for should be irrelevant to my points.

Finally, anyone, like Alou, reaching up in age, comes with an uncertainty factor. And yes, I grant that the Mets have a nice lineup, I just don't think it is in the top five...though definitely the top five. Do you think their lineup is better than the White Sox? And why would you believe it is better than the Tigers, when that lineup beat them last year and now they added Sheffield? And your lineup as listed is 1-6, what about 7 and 8 spots.

...sorry, meant to say, though definitely in the top 10.

what the hell r u talking about the tigers lineup beat them last year? Seriously? 7 and 8 .... Valentin and green, both are good for 15/60, thats fine by me for 7 and 8 hitters. Unfortunately, it doesnt matter to me if you believe the mets have a top 5 lineup in baseball. I know they do. You still didnt answer who is your team?

I said it once and Ill say it again. I guarantee this guy is a cubs fan.

My point was any one who thinks the Tigers lineup is better then the mets lineup is a dumbass. Honestly.The tigers are a righty loaded team that relies solely on the long ball. That is about as ludicrous a statement as me saying the mets have better pitching then the Tigers.

gobosox, judging by the reluctance to answer the question, this guy is probably a cub fan lol, maybe orioles or nats.

Speaking of the Tigers though, every one last year was saying they were awful, andall they had in the rotation was old kenny rogers and a ton of kids. Seems like the mets to me. Everyone saying the mets rotation isnt good enough will be eating their words soon enough. We will just have to wait and see

A few things... First..
An ACE isn't a number one starter...there is a major difference. Not every team (including Pittsburgh) has an Ace. They all have their top guy, but an Ace is defined as someone who has shutdown ability every time out. A number 1 is simply the best pitcher you have. Last year Duke was their number 1...Santana is an ACE to the extreme. You can't compare Pedro and Harden's stuff. Pedro was much better.

Secondly, the Pelfrey FB is inaccurate. He throws it at the 95-97 range. Not 91-93 range. There was a link to a video of him where he was consistently between 95-97 for an entire game in college. I'd take that any time.

Godamer, you listed Alou as a big question mark, then say that the Tigers' lineup is much improved with Sheffield? That's a major contradiction.

You really can't compare AL & NL lineups. There's just too much of a difference between having a pitcher hit & someone like Pronk or Giambi hit. It's just not a fair comparison. So if you want to try that, then do it by taking out the DH.

Imagine Cle without Pronk. NYY without Giambi. The White Sox without Thome. The Red Sox without Big Papi.

Seriously though, the Angels? They only have 1 bona-fide hitter in Vlad. The Mets scored more runs than the Twins, Tigers, Angels, & Blue Jays last year despite the inconvenience of no DH. The only problem the may have is that the Braves & Phillies were the only 2 teams in the NL to score more runs & you know what division they play in.

But then again, the Mets did kick it into cruise control about three quarters of the way through the year since they were in no threat of losing their division, so it's conceivable that they could have scored more.

As a Cubs fan, let's not crown them to a playoff spot until we see the product on the field. I love my Cubbies & think it is possible to make the playoffs in their piss-poor division, but to say that they will win the Wild Card over one of the Mets/Phillies/Braves/Dodgers/Padres before seeing them play is impossible to back up. DO NOT EVER say that Prior will contribute until he does. You'll jinx him & even when Prior did throw last year, he was highly ineffective.

Harden and Haren are going nowhere, so just stop these ridiculous posts....

I heard the SAMETHING last year about Beane wanting the SAME players and Beane said LAST year he wasn't trying to aquire those players from Omar, and that was about the Zito deal. NOW he'd want them for HARDEN or HAREN? Two pitchers not hitting free agency for a couple years? Give me a break, these NY media outlets are a joke, they know nothing about Westcoast teams, AT ALL. Sheesh.....

The article says "not in so many words........" as in, he didn't. Beane wouldn't make this rumored trade because he isn't an idiot, sorry.

nrmax88,

Sorry, I meant to say that the Tigers "would have beaten" the Mets last year had the Mets made the WS. Yes, I know, I can't prove that, but what the hey...
Look, I HATED the Tigers last year, but they hit very well, and though Sheffield is a question mark, his upside for that team is tremendous.

Who, to answer your question, I'm a White Sox fan...though as I have said here, I also like the Cubs. (Now someone is going to give me shit for liking both teams...for some reason, that isn't acceptable in this universe.)

As for comparing the American Leauge with the National, pinetarhand, I absolutely agree that it's apples and oranges, unless one subtracts the DH. But I was making those comparisons without the DH in mind. I still contend that the Mets do not have the best lineup in baseball...but as I also said, it is very good and playoff worthy.

As of the Cubs and Mark Prior, I'm sorry, I don't buy into jinxes...and maybe the Cubs need to psychologically let some of that go. From what Sullivan of the Tribune has said, Prior is working hard in the off-season to strengthen his shoulder, something that many say should solve most of his problems. Let's remember, Priors two first injuries were bad luck (running into Giles and being hit by Hawpe's line drive), and then he had two years of nagging problems. The guy has great character and will work hard to prove the doubters wrong.

As for the Wild Card, I never said the Cubs would win it, just that it would come from the Central...and I'm sticking by that prediction.

"Look, I HATED the Tigers last year, but they hit very well, and though Sheffield is a question mark, his upside for that team is tremendous."

To repeat myself, the Mets scored more runs than the Tigers last year despite not having a DH. How is Sheffield's upside any better than Alou's? They have the same question marks.

I don't believe in jinxes either, it was more of a joke than anything else.

The Tribune is a propaganda machine for the Cubs, they seem to say anything to make the Cubs look good for obvious reasons. Prior was supposedly going to be ready for ST last year & then suddenly got the flu & injured his shoulder without throwing. I'll believe it when I see it.

reyes - dynamic young speedster with untapped power. skies the limit.

lo duca - solid #2 bat. not great, solid...

Beltran - swtich hitting, OBP, high contact rate, speed, immense power, 85 walks per...

Coupled with gold glove D in CF, I'll take him over anyone in the game.

Delgado - Lethal middle of the order bat.

Wright - An upper tier, pure hitter in his low 20's

Fuck Rolen, I'll take Wright.

Alou - Arguably a top 15 hitter in baseball when healthy.

I understand regression and heightened injury risk in old age, but if you don't realize that Alou is special as a physical specimen, then I can't help you....

Alou is an absolute beast when he's on the field.

Green/Valentin - Few teams boast a better 7/8 combo.

Shea factors deflate already strong statistics. Put this lineup in a neutral park, and you have the top scoring offense in baseball.

Did you really say you would take him over anyone in the game?? There is a guy named Pujols, I dont know if you have heard of him or not. He makes less money, he is better offensively, and won a gold glove at first last year. You may be the only person I know that would actually take Beltran over Pujols. I live in St. Louis, and I'm NOT a cards fan, but you just don't understand how good this guy is. He may be the best hitter, EVER. We will see, but if he doesn't have a major injury, he will have almost all of the records.

wait who are u talken to dunc?

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