Carlos Zambrano Speaks

This weekend's Cubs Convention gave all the local papers a chance to snag some quotes from Carlos Zambrano concerning his contract negotiations.

From the Sun-Times:

"I don't want to talk contract when the season starts. It has to be before the season starts or spring training."

"There's a [good] chance I sign with the Cubs. This is a business. I want to stay here, but like I said, this is a business."  MLBTR note: if he didn't actually say "good," doesn't that change this quote drastically?

"You take less than Zito take and everybody talks about you, saying, 'Zambrano sign a bad contract.' You take more and everybody says, 'Zambrano is taking advantage.' I think the thing is to be around what Zito signed for, more or the same."

"He [Jim Hendry] spent a lot of money. I hope he has more for Big Z."

From the Daily Herald:

"We’re talking right now. (Today) will be the second time my agent meets with Jim Hendry."

From the Tribune:

"Zito is a great pitcher, and it's good for him he got that contract, and I think that will help me."

Comments

[palehose35]

so...he publicly refers to himself as "Big Z"

wow.

[tmar]

Wow, I thought I was the only one who did that.

Either way the big Z might pull a Prince on us and change his name to a symbol next year, maybe "$$".

[bobo]

He implies Zito range, and I've heard before he was talking about $100-110 over 6 years. If this is true, are the Cubs that dumb that they just don't sign the check? He should be making well over $20M per year. I'm shocked his initial asking price isn't something like $155 over 7 years.

[quintjs]

The Cubs will do almost anything to keep this guy, its just about working out the best years to money ratio for both parties.

I am sure the Cubs did not spend up large in the off season without keeping some reserve for their best pitcher, and one of the better ones in baseball.

He will get a deal similar to Zito at the very least. He even mentions the fact that Zito will help him and when talking the more and less thing, he says "I think the thing is to be around what Zito signed for, more or the same."

So i would rather take advantage than being considered to sign a bad contract.

[Laputian]

I was looking at Zambrano's stats over his career and noticed this year everything had more or less held steady except his walks spiked by a pretty good amount (29 more than the year before with about 9 less innings pitched). I was just curious if there was anything to explain this or if it was just "one of those things."

[bravesbeast]

Any body know if Sammy was at the cubs convention, heard he was supposed to be the guest of honor

[iloveraykim]

ooooh i hope the cubs get him

[Yars]

The Cubs have spent so much $$$ this offseason, they had better start winning and players such as Mark DeRosa & Ted Lilly need to have career years. I would not have signed either one of those players. Lilly will be lucky to win 10 games this season, & DeRosa had a fluke '06 in TX. He's a good guy to come off the bench. He's not an everyday player. Atlanta saw this, thats why they dumped him. He had a great season in '06, but will never have another season like that. NL Central I see is wide open. I truly believe even the Brewers have a chance. Cardinals won't win it this season. If the Cubs can lock up 'Big Z', I would expect more than a 3rd place finish in '07.

[Brian]

Zambrano is going to hit free agency. Ther NL Central is definately wide open. Yars is right, but I see the Astros coming up on top, especially if Clemens returns. I see the Brewers pushing for a wild card spot.

[nrmax88]

what difference does Zambranos contract make on the 2007 season?

[tmar]

Brian, what have the Astros done to make you think they'll be a better team in 07?

[nrmax88]

I think the Brewcrew has the most upside of anyteam in the division, but also possibly the most downside of any team besides the Pirates. I can honestly see the crew finishing anywhere from 5th to 1st. I think the cubs are on their way, but I dont see it happening this season. This was the beginning of their transition. I understand D Lee's injury was huge, but I see the cubs competing in 07, but falling out of the race in august sometime, and if the right moves are made going into the 08 season, they can be a force to be reckoned with in baseball, becuase they have a ton of talent, although i dont like the soriano contract at all, they got their man, overpaying or not. I think the cubs can use a big lefty power bat, or a true leadoff man so you can drop Soriano into the middle of the order, giving him protection from Lee and ARam. It will be interesting to see how they respong to sweet Lou this year.

[allabouthephils]

I would be super suprised if the Cubs didn't hand Carlos a blank check and say here... All he has to do as far as negotiations are concerned is say... You gave Jason Marquis 3yrs@21MM... Or you gave Ted Lilly 4yrs@40MM.... After that Hendry will probably say ya you have a point, heres your blank check....

[nrmax88]

Yeah philss, that would be the sensible thing to do, nobody every accused Hendry of being the most sensible guy in the world though. To me, it really comes down to whether or not Carlos wants to play his future baseball and play thru his prime as a cub. If he does, theres no reason why the cubs shouldnt give him whatever he wants, because if they dont, you can bet your bottom dollar some team will.

[Brian]

Carlos Lee and Jason Jennings... Plus Pettitte is gone. He hasnt been that effective for us. In 3 years here, he had 1 good year, a career year, when we went to the WS. In 2004, he was hurt basically the whole year, plus last year, he was terrible and had the worst season of his career. His elbow is very fragile also. Trust me, people down here in Houston arent that upset that Pettitte is gone. Jennings, who doesnt have impressive stats, pitched in Coors Field and still pitched well. He had the worst run support of any pitcher in the majors last year. Carlos Lee provides instant protectiob for Lance Berkman, which Berkman hasnt had since Carlos Beltran. Those 2 will put up Ramirez/Ortiz numbers. Both hit for average, power and over 100 ribbies. I dont really like the Woody Williams signing but if he can win 10 games, I guess its good. We have a palethera (sp?) of young pitchers such as Chris Sampson (who had better minor league numbers than Jason Hirsh), Matt Albers, Troy Patton and Fernando Nieve, just to name a few, who can fill in for the 4th and 5th starters spots. If Clemens comes back, it will be in Houston. Disregard whatPeter Gammons and the rest of the ESPN crew say./ They said for the past 2 years that he would go back to NY or Boston if he returned and guess what, he came back to Houston. Yes, he and Pettitte are good friends, but hell, they arent Brokeback Mountain, so just because Pettitte is a Yankee doesnt necessarily mean Clemens will be one too. Taveras is gone, thank God, which opens up the door for Chris Burke (who can actually hit the ball out of the infield) to play everyday. Basically, our offense has improved drastically and our pitching staff is only hurt because, as of right now, Roger Clemens isnt on the roster. But like I said, I like our young pitching and I think they can do good things for us. I honestly think that had the Cubs or Cardinals signed Carlos Lee and trade for Jason Jennings, Peter Gammons and ESPN would be talking World Series for them, but the Astros do it and it isnt a big deal. lol, oh well.

[spieldogg]

"Plus Pettitte is gone. he had 1 good year, a career year"

"Carlos Lee provides instant protection for Lance Berkman. Those 2 will put up Ramirez/Ortiz numbers."

Thanks I haven't laughed that hard in a long time, I needed that.

[GoBoSox420]

It isnt a big deal because the Astros are not that much better. You're kidding yourself if you think losing Petitte and potentially clemens is offset by Jason Jennings. You traded your two best pitching prospects, I dont believe for a second you have a plethora of young pitchers as talented as either one.

Lee is a decent bat, without a doubt. But I wouldnt even have the astros offense top in their own division.

[GoBoSox420]

And yeah
In order to put up Ortiz/Ramirez numbers you must be as good as Ortiz and Ramirez. I'm sorry, but Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman are not David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.

[bsox21]

"I'm sorry, but Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman are not David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez."

Boston - Tough HR park.

Houston - Easy HR park.

You're right, but the numbers will be closer than u think.

I have no idea why the people on this board constantly bash Carlos Lee.

Carlos Lee is fucking awesome. All he does is mash and is a good baserunner with great speed for a big man.

Berk and Lee are going to MASH.

[bsox21]

If I were Carlos Lee -

I'd have a harem of women living on my 1000 acre lot in Puerto Rico.

5 thai chics and 20 miscellaneous hotties from all over the world.

All of them would have "Big Z" tattooed on their left arms.

I would only refer to myself in the third person.

I would walk into Hendry's office and say,

"You pay Big Z $140 for 7 years or Big Z walks."

[GoBoSox420]

Im not putting Lee down. In the post above I said Lee is a decent bat without a doubt.

Im just saying that combo is not Ramirez/Ortiz at all.

[beeniez]

Carlos Lee and Berkman are one hell of a 3-4 combo. Although, besides the occasional Ensberg, they're offense has tons of holes. That rotation is pretty shakey and Lidge needs to calm down. I don't see them competing against the Cardinals, Cubs, and potentially Brewers.

[Gleebo]

The NL Central is wide open right now. As a Cubs fan I dont see us as a frontrunner though, but they will definitely be better than '06.

They could give Zambrano $20 a year for the next 5 and I wouldn't be surprised. And it might take that to keep him.

[touchmymonkey]

I agree with you Gleebo - $20 a year is what it will take - and if the Cubs were smart they would frontload the contract since next two years Sori and Aram are underpaid next 2 years. i am pretty sure as it stands now Cubs payroll for 07 is right around $98 - but does anyone have a link for team payrolls for 07?

[plh903]

Front-loading is always a bad idea, the longer and more exorbitant the contract even moreso.

Time value of money, inflation, and all that, no matter how much it makes sense in regards to a budget it's 100X more fiscally responsible to pay later.

[touchmymonkey]

I understand that ( because it makes perfect sense ) but can't an arguement be made for the occasional frontloaded contract. Even if it is just for the first year? Just to avoid nearing luxury tax implications in the future - or at least giving them some more flexability in adding payroll down the line? Cubs are kind of fluky in the way this years payroll may pan out thanks to Wood taking a $11 paycut so we have extra room. Personally - I don't see us signing Zambrano unless he takes a 4-5 yr deal and my gut tells me he will want 7-8 yr deal

[plh903]

To you it may make sense, and it does to me too. Not being "my money" etc.

But no team would ever do this, the money lost would be on the order of tens of millions on a contract of that magnitude. They could put it in a savings account and this would be the case, they are certainly getting better return than that. Once again, not even broaching the most obvious point that in 2014 a dollar will have much less value than it does now, coupled with the fact that MLB salaries are inflating (or even in terms of the free agent market this year-hyperinflating) at an even greater rate than the rest of the economy, it makes the effect all the more drastic.

They could give him a big signing bonus or something, but in terms of a long-term curve, more of the money should be paid later rather than sooner. There's really no two ways about it.

Also, Hendry's blundering ass should have locked up Zambrano before he threw over $65M at an averagish pitcher and another that may not provide a half a marginal win, if money is going to be an issue with Z.

I am glad I am a Cards fan. Moral hazard much? Hendry?

[Deuce49]

The Cubs need to give him Zito money or a little better before the season starts. If he files for free agency the big money East Coast clubs will be much bigger players for him than they were for Zito. They were just lukewarm towards Zito , where the Giants basically bid against themselves. No one else came close to what they eneded up offering.

As for the NL Central it is very wide open this year. The Cards, Astros, and Cubs all have big question marks in pitching after their Aces. The Brewers will improve. If the Cubs can get some pitchers to produce after Zambrano they have the best hitting. A lot of questions to be answered in this division.

[CJ]

"You traded your two best pitching prospects, I dont believe for a second you have a plethora of young pitchers as talented as either one."

Well, consider the ZIPS projections (ERA): traded Buchholz (4.85) and Hirsh (4.85); replacements Sampson (4.32) and Nieve (4.78). And, ZIPS again, Jennings/Pettitte is almost a wash: Pettitte (4.10), Jennings (4.17). Sure, another half year of Clemens would help, too.

I do expect the Astros offense to be much better, based upon a full year of Luke Scott, Burke over Taveras in CF, adding Carlos Lee, a potential rebound for Ensberg, and using Loretta to share some time with Everett and Biggio. In the realm of "speculative"--if Hunter Pence continues his trend in the minors, he could be a huge boost to the offense as a mid-season call up.

That said, in the NL Central, the Cubs, Cards, Astros, and Brewers all have some question marks which will have to break in their favor to win the division. We will see.

[OPERATIONSHUTDOWN]

Papi 2006:

.287, 54 HR, 137 RBI, .413 OBP, .636 SLG

Berkman 2006:

.315, 45 HR, 136 RBI, .420 OBP, .620 SLG.

I think these guys are pretty close to equal players. Pre-2006 was the first time Lance ever really worked out in the offseason. The power isn't a product of the ballpark, dude hits monster shots (RFK comes to mind, HR derby anyone), but also dinks 'em into the Crawford boxes... good for him.

Berkman has career marks of .304 BA, .416 OBP, .567 SLG, .983 OPS. Those are better than Papi's across the board. Papi's never had 1 year above Lance's career OBP. Papi doesn't have 1 year above Lance's career BA. Lance has been playing like an All-Star since 2000, Papi, since 2003. Berkman is a high OBP, high average, power hitter who should keep hitting like this until he retires, he's never been bad (with the exception of about 50 games post ACL). Papi's career wasn't anything until 2003... he's got 3 MVP caliber years, let's hold up on the plaque in Cooperstown. Papi is a fantastic player in his own right, but Berkman is clearly the most underrated player of this generation.

BTW, Minute Maid Park suppresses lefty HRs. So it's not necessarily an easy park for Berkman just to pull one out of... Fenway's got Pesky's Pole and the shortest RF porch in baseball.

But anyway, let's get back to this statement about Lee+Berkman=Ortiz+Ramirez.

Manny's clearly the better player than Lee, but Lee is one of the most durable players in the game, and will be moving to an extremely HR friendly park for righties. Manny's durability (physical and mental) is a question at this point... maybe he'll play 150, maybe 130. We can pencil Lee in for 160. Alou's a pretty comparable player who got to slide behind Bagwell in his prime (comparable production to Berkman). These are the numbers Alou put up hitting behind Bagwell in 2000, his first year in MMP:

126 GP, .355 BA, 30 HR, 114 RBI.

Lee hit 37 bombs and .300 with 116 RBI in 2006. I'm not saying he'll hit 45 HR or hit .350 in 2007, which Manny could do... just that he's a shoe-in for 35 HR and 120 RBI. If we pair that with Berkman's production, I think that becomes pretty close to the ultimate output out of the Boston #3 and #4.

Before we all dismiss Lee as some fat guy who's headed for an inevitable decline... consider two facts.

1. He has been in an upward trend in HR EVERY year since 1999. 16, 24, 24, 26, 31, 31, 32, 37. He's now moving into an extremely friendly park for righties. That trend probably will continue upwards.

2. He stole 19 bags in 21 attempts in 2006 and has a career success rate of 75% on the basepaths. He's not this hulking slug people make him out to be.

[Brian]

"It isnt a big deal because the Astros are not that much better. You're kidding yourself if you think losing Petitte and potentially clemens is offset by Jason Jennings. You traded your two best pitching prospects, I dont believe for a second you have a plethora of young pitchers as talented as either one."

LOL, typical Boston fan. Doesnt see past their own team. Our team is much better now. Our offense was terrible because we had 4 everyday players, (Everett, Taveras and Ausmus) plus the pitcher, who had absolutely no power or thjreat to hit a home run. Take Taveras out and insert Burke, who is projected to hit between 10-18 home runs. Carlos Lee provides instant protection for Berkman and while they wont put up Ramirez/Ortiz numbers, they will come very close. Pettitte sucked for us, look at the stats. Jennings will be a great #2. If Clemens returns, it will be in Houston. He's a great number three and by the way Hirsh was one of our top prospects, Buchholz wasnt even in the top 5. Buchholz was always hurt and several teams were afraid of his medical past. We made out like bandits in this trade by giving up Taveras, who cant hit the ball out of the infield and Buchholz, who is always hurt. It was basically a 1 on 1 swap of Jennings and Hirsh. And, if you dont believe that we have pitchers better or as good as Hirsh and Buchholz, then you dont know our team or minor league system. Sampson, Nieve, Patton and Albers are all better than Buchholz and Patton and Sampson are equal to, if not better than Hirsh. The only pitcher who isnt better than Hirsh or Buchholz is Wandy Rodriguez. He is terrible and I hope he never touches a baseball for the Houston Astros again.

[Brian]

In my above post, it was supposed to say... "Our team is much better now that it was a year ago."

[GoBoSox420]

You are a fucking moron. The Red Sox have nothing to do with anything I said.

fact is, whoever said losing Petitte doesnt hurt is stupid. Without clemens your starting rotation is hardly impressive. Your offense isnt even the best in the division. Your pitching is nowhere near the best in the division. Your bullpen could be decent if Lidge is decent.

Stop acting as if the Astros are suddenly contending for the World Series.

[OPERATIONSHUTDOWN]

"fact is, whoever said losing Petitte doesnt hurt is stupid. Without clemens your starting rotation is hardly impressive. Your offense isnt even the best in the division. Your pitching is nowhere near the best in the division. Your bullpen could be decent if Lidge is decent."

The rotation is unimpressive. The offense might be the best in the division, it's certainly improved with Burke and Lee playing everyday. The bullpen will be among the best in baseball if Lidge is decent, it was decent with Lidge pitching poorly.

Please don't call anyone a moron after spouting off misinformed derisions of Lance Berkman. He's every bit the hitter Ortiz is.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp.cgi?I=berkmla01:Lance+Berkman&st=career

[GoBoSox420]

Actually

I said Berkman/Lee is no Ortiz/Ramirez

Do you stats that are not influenced by the park or the league a hitter is in? If youre going to tell me Ortiz's numbers are not hurt by hitting at Fenway and in the AL you to are a moron.

[OPERATIONSHUTDOWN]

MMP isn't a great place to hit if you are a lefty... neither is Fenway. Since the overall park factors for the two are about the same and relatively volatile from year to year, I wouldn't look too much into it.

If we really want to break it down, look at the lineup around Papi in 2006. Berkman put up those stats last year hitting in front of nobody with a leadoff hitter with a .320 OBP. Garner was giving baserunners the red light and refusing to sacrifice in front of Berkman to discourage IBB's. Really, Berkman is all that and I can't believe we are arguing this. Again, Papi has 0 years with a higher average than Berkman's career mark. Papi has 0 years with a higher OBP than Berkman's career mark. Papi is great, let's not let our admiration for him obscure the facts though.

[GoBoSox420]

You kindly ignored the bit about hitting in the AL :)

Ill give you the protection Papi had, although if you notice he was hitting extremely well even after manny took himself off the field. I understand Manny is not the only advantage the Sox have over the astros line up, but it is a significant one.

Again like I said before. I was not going into individual comparisons. I laughed at the idea of Berkman/Lee being Ortiz/Ramirez. For a variety of reasons I might add, numbers obviously being one of them.

[Brian]

GoBoSox420

Losing Pettitte doesnt hurt and the Astros will be contending for the World Series. Suck it.

[Aduncaroo]

The astros need to worry about competing for the division first. They and everyone else knows that...so please don't try and act like its a done deal.

As for the offense, I would take the Cubs and Cards lineups over the Astros. You are telling me you would rather have the astros than a lineup where you have Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, Barrett, Jones, and the rest??? Come on, there is no way. The Cards is better too. So, not the best lineup, not the best pitching..(could be if they somehow get Clemens) and a decent pen. You will be in it, but so with three other teams.

[GoBoSox420]

Losing Petitte does hurt. You can argue to what degree. But you are fucking stupid if you think losing quality starting pitching does not hurt.

Astros will not contend for the World Series. I am wiling to bet WHATEVEr youd like on that.