Randy Johnson Trade Complete

MetsBlog quotes a radio report heard on WFAN from Sweeny Murti: the Yankees traded Randy Johnson to the Diamondbacks for Luis Vizcaino, Steven Jackson, Ross Ohlendorf, and Alberto Gonzalez. 

UPDATE: ESPN reports that the Yankees will pay between $1.5MM and $2MM of Johnson's '06 salary.  Additionally, the D'Backs were granted a 72 hour window for negotation with Johnson starting at 3pm CST today.

Some info on the three prospects:

Jackson is a right-handed starter who will turn 25 in March.  He posted a 2.65 ERA and 2.78 K/BB in Double A in 2006.  According to Scout.com, the former college pitcher is a power guy with a "devastating slider."

Ohlendorf is a 24 year-old right-handed starter.  Like Jackson, he pitched in college and made the jump from Low A South Bend to Double A.  He posted a 3.29 ERA and 4.3 K/BB at that level.  His changeup may have been a key to making the Southern League All-Star game this year.

Gonzalez is not our attorney general, but rather a Venezuelan shortstop.  He turns 24 in April and may have been the best defensive shortstop in Arizona's system.  He hit .290/.356/.392 in Double A in 2006.

Comments

[henry14theking]

Who is Steven Jackson?

Who is Alberto Gonzalez?

Someone enlighten me. I think I should be mad at Cashman for some reason.

[nrmax88]

Steven jackson is the dude who was throwen down in the crowd in the detroit indiana brawl at the palace lol

[Kyle]

If this is the actual package. The Yankees better not have paid a dime, Gonzalez is a slick fielding shortstop who doesnt hit for any power at AAA, Steven Jackson is a right handed pitcher who reached AA last season at 24. Neither are really that good. I hope this isnt true.

[Skinner]

Mr. Clemens, your Yankee pinstripes are ready.

[tyler]

I heard the radio interview live... according to Sweeny the yanks didnt pay any of the salary. Johnson still has to "officially" agree to the extension. The extension seems to be for $10-11 million for 2008

[pdano]

Does anyone know whether the Southern League in general, and Tennessee in particular, is a pitcher's or hitter's park?

[henry14theking]

Steven Jackson.

"Another college pitcher who jumps straight to Double-A after spending last year in Lo-A South Bend, Jackson is a pure power pitcher who has a devastating slider that caused, among other things, 12 wild pitches last season. The Diamondbacks made have openly stated they feel their Double-A rotation could be the big league rotation before too long, and for a long time, and expect big things from Jackson, a 10th round pick out of Clemson in 2004, this season."

Alberto Gonzalez.

"For a minute there is looked like the best defensive shortstop in the Diamondbacks system might be getting buried. Stephen Drew is still the SS of the future (and before too long the present), but Gonzalez, and his incredible defense (he started last season with a 30+ game errorless streak at Lo-A South Bend), started hitting last season, and his continued development will be something to watch, as he could play every infield position, and do it with better defense than almost anyone else in the system."

[henry14theking]

Ah... sorry Roto. Looks like you beat me to the punch.

The above info is from Scout.com.

Roto has the links above I believe.

[pdano]

Never mind, I looked myself. Tennessee appears to be have been a slight hitter's park last year, 7% higher than the rest of the Southern League, with 23% more homers and 9% fewer strikeouts. Over the last three years, it's still a hitter's park, though only 4% above league average (and suppressing doubles for some reason). Makes me feel better about the pitchers the Yankees are getting back.

Courtesy of baseballthinkfactory.org.

[pinetarhand]

no, nrmaxx, steven jackson is the Ram's RB who ripped on his fans for not attending games. Don't know how he hits, but I doubt too many people would get in his way during a DP.

Arizona just got a HOF pitcher, albeit declining, for peanuts. They should have taken Linebrick.

[Jer-Z Yank]

Whatever happend to getting Micah Ownings? I know we wanted to shed some dollars but Cash is supposed to be "stockpiling" arms... This Jackson guy sounds like AA fodder to me...

[Kyle]

The Southern league is a hitters league and Tenesee has played as an above average hitters park inflating home runs by 22% according to BBTF while increasing runs by 4%

[levelboss]

i think the main issue was salary-dumping; collecting prospects was secondary

having accomplished those things, the Yankees can now dry-clean Clemens' jersey for June

[JohnnyDee]

Cashman is nuts. I know RJ is declining but he could have gotten a much sweeter deal from San Diego. These guys the Yanks got aren't considered big time prospects. I think Cash screwed this one up.

[pdano]

The problem the Yankees have is that they can fill the fifth spot in the rotation with Hughes, Clippard, or Clemens, but none of those people are going to be in NYC before June or so. I'd be interested to see if Clemens would be willing to do something wacky, like pitch late April (the first time they need a fifth starter) until late June, take a couple months to pitch long relief, spot start, or even take a vacation, and then come back in mid-September to start in the playoffs. That might save his arm and solve the rotation problem.

The only problem is that my plan is insane.

[kyankees07]

Like I said earlier, they should have taken Linebrink and more instead of these nobodies from AA.

[Brickhaus]

The Southern League is most definately a pitcher's league and not a hitter's league. Overall, my guess is that Tennessee plays about neutral overall.

People really seem to be overstimating RJ's value here if they're disappointed. The Yanks got two guys who should be decent middle relievers in Ohlendorf and Jackson in exchange for a pitcher who's injured 1/4 of the time, who's severely trending downward, and still only put up an 88 ERA+ last year, while getting rid of $16M in salary. At this point in his career, Randy Johnson probably isn't significantly better than Kyle Lohse or Jason Johnson. The fact that they could trade a guy of that caliber with that size contract for anything of value is a coup for Cashman.

[tyler]

You dont know what SD was offering... how do you know Linbrink wont walk after this year... hes a FA after the season

[kyankees07]

Yanks have $$$$$. Everybody else spent this offseason. They deffinitely could have kept Linebrink.

[tyler]

Why give Linbrink Kyle Farnsworth money when they might be able to trade for a guy like Mike Gonzalez whos under contract?

And how do you know that Linbrink doesnt want to close somewhere?

[levelboss]

Yankees to-do list..

1. utility infielder
2. backup catcher
3. acquire Mike Gonzalez
4. acquire Roger Clemens

[Not Joe Morgan]

Its also possible that San Diego offered a marginally better package but asked for the Yanks to include a lot of money.

I like Vizcaino enough; his peripherals are good. Very good K/9, average HR rate, BB could use some help, good GB%. Definitely useful.

[yanksfan]

Linbrink has shown he can handle a heavy workload.

Gonzalez has shown he has arm issues after pitching 50 innings in a season.

Gonzalez has more potential than Linbrink, but Linbrink has proven more.

Also, don't forget that Joe Torre keeps working his relievers harder and harder until they reach the verge of breaking down. Bullpen injuries are a much greater concern with Torre in charge.

[Not Joe Morgan]

And Gonzalez is lefthanded. That can't be understated given the presense of Proctor (I can't imagine him really starting), Farnsworth, Rivera and now Vizcaino in the pen.
Although I do agree with you on the Torre issue; someone has to reign him in. Maybe tape a picture of Ramiro Mendoza next to the lineup card each game.

[levelboss]

"Joe Torre keeps working his relievers harder and harder.."

and you really think that's his fault? that Torre's indiscriminately putting in relievers? what would you do if your starter was getting shelled left and right? NOT change him out for a bullpen guy?

[cubfever7]

This deal befuddles me--i think it helps the Yankees all the way--do not be mad at Cashman at all.. The only reason I can imagine the D-backs making it is to draw fans and bring in revenue. This deal is a win for Yankee fans.

[kyankees07]

Well, if these pitchers turn out to have an ERA under 4 I will be happy. They'll most likely be relievers or trade bait with the batch of good pitching prospects down in the Yanks system. And hello, Roger Clemens.

[JohnnyDee]

I thought the Yankees were gonna deal for young pitching PROSPECTS to stockpile them with the idea to make some deals down the road. These players don't seem to have much value if any.

[tdogg]

lol. Cubfever do tell. How exactly is this a win for the Yanks all the way?

[kyankees07]

"I thought the Yankees were gonna deal for young pitching PROSPECTS to stockpile them with the idea to make some deals down the road. These players don't seem to have much value if any." YEAH JohnyDee! You got it! These players aren't PROSPECTS, they are just MINOR LEAGUERS. This no win for the Yanks.

[levelboss]

the big win for the Yankees is the SALARY-DUMP; the Yankees have more cash and now more options

the prospects are the secondary consideration; dunno why you guys keep focusing on that and then saying it was a bad deal for the Yankees

[yanksfan]

While Torre did have a really quick hook on starting pitchers not named Randy Johnson, that's only part of the issue. The bigger issue is which relievers Torre would pick. He'd use a pitcher either once a week or 5 times a week. There was no in between with him.

The guys he used once a week would always suck due to the low workload, and the other guys would pitch and pitch until their arm was on the verge of giving out. Torre would only give different pitchers a shot when he had no other choice.

For last season, look at Proctor's monthly stats. He pitched in about 40 games in May and June combined. The overuse showed in the ~5.5 ERA in that time span. His ERA was 3ish the rest of the year, during which he had a more normal workload. And then look at Villone. He had a ~2.5 ERA until August, at which point Torre started pitching him every chance he got. He totally fell apart. He got overused so badly that the Yankees don't believe he will ever be the same again.

If Torre had just distributed the work evenly between the two, everyone would have been better off.

[aklaft]

I can't believe the packages the yanks keep getting for their cooked senior citizens.

[ScottBrosius]

Johnson may not have wanted to go to San Diego. Yahoo says that the yanks pay between 1.5 million and 2 million of the contract.

[kyankees07]

RJ's mom lives in Cali. Hmmm. Maybe he doesn't want to be with his Mommy.

[Kyle]

The problem I think with Yankees fans analyzing this trade (and I am a yanks fan) is that we are spoiled by Clippard and Hughes, two high school draftees who are in AAA by the low 20's. Both these pitchers were college draft picks and that is why they are 24 and still in the minors. When you dont graduate college until 22 its hard to be at AAA by that age. The return is alright...I like Ohlendorf a lot and I think at worst Jackson becomes a very good bullpen arm...I have no idea why they wanted Gonzalez as ss and 2B are locked up for a while. I wouldnt be suprised if he is included in another deal. Overall though I like the trade alright, though I would have preferred owings.

[tdogg]

"the prospects are the secondary consideration; dunno why you guys keep focusing on that and then saying it was a bad deal for the Yankees"

umm excuse me i disagree. The Yankees will need a pitcher like Johnson to win this year. RJ stills has some left and his outlier stats are fine. He will rebound.

So no imo a salary dump of one of your best pitchers is not a good idea if I was a Yankee Fan this year.

[Atobe]

Good deal by the dbacks. Anyone who says RJ is cooked is a fool man, his peripherals show he's good enough to be a mid 3's ERA in the NL still. The Dbacks didn't really give up anyone, just the #1 HB on the rams and our attourney general, and 2 nobodies. Whatever they give him in terms of an extension can't be too bad compared to what some others guys get. This deal also has more to deal off-the-field since the DBacks want a guy they can send into the hall with their cap on.

Deal works for the yanks too obviously, since one of these kids could pan out and they freed up some money. Although I never knew the yankees to be a fiscally responsible team.

[tdogg]

R J's zips projection

Randy Johnson* 43age 3.71era 19w 9l 34g 223.0 202hits 92er 27hr 54bb 196k

[levelboss]

"The Yankees will need a pitcher like Johnson to win this year"

and the $14 million or so freed up now gives the Yankees some options, don't you think?

[pinetarhand]

"and the $14 million or so freed up now gives the Yankees some options, don't you think?"

Unless you're talking about Clemens, which is no sure thing, I don't know who would be availabe worth signing with that $14MM.

[levelboss]

do you really think Cashman's gonna leave the starting rotation with only four guys (including an untested Japanese pitcher and no definitive ace)?

i know it's nutty, but i really think Cashman's gonna speed-dial Clemens' agent(s) soon

[Orioles2025]

well this sounds like a good deal to me...4 decent prospects for a good pitcher. Granted its RJ, but at that age its a bit of a gamble...you may be only getting a half season from him if he gets injured. Chances are if the yankees wanted top flight type prospects it was dependent on them eating some salary, which was not what they wanted. Overall, i say johnson performs well and 2 of those guys turn out to be dect major leaguers- which equates to a good deal.

[kyankees07]

I know the Sox are going to be in it also, but Clemens is going to Yanks, most likely.

[gatling]

Couple of things here. First, Johnson has a full no trade clause. It doesn't matter how good the offer from San Diego was, if Johnson didn't want to play there, the Yankees hands were tied. Secondly, if the Yankees really wanted to move him they didn't have much leverage here. If Arizona was the only place that RJ would waive his no trade clause for, then the Yankees had to take what Arizona offered, or keep him around.

As far as the player in the, they're definitely not getting much respect here from Yankees fans, which doesn't surprise me. Ohlendorf is a solid pitcher, who did an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park while pitching in a home park that inflates homeruns by 22%. His stat line actually reminds me a lot of Wang, although he's not quite the groundball machine that Wang is. Jackson is alot the same type of pitcher, he's a groundball guy with a solid K/BB rate and was even better at keeping the ball in the yard.

Those two young arms are the real key to the deal, and they're much better than most of the posters here are giving them credit for. Vizcaino will help the pen this year, but he's a free agent next year and not likely to be worth the money he'll get then. Gonzalez is a great defender, and would make a decent UTL infielder for the Yanks in a year or two.

For having basically only one option, I think the Yankees did just fine on this trade, especially if they use the money saved to add Roger Clemens.

[tdogg]

Somebody answer this please. I have heard several times if, if , if. What IF they dont sign Roger Clemens? And Wang is likely to regress.

[pdano]

The RJ projection is going to be hard, because he's 43, and the only two non-knuckleballers still producing quality seasons at 43 were/are Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens. Is RJ really comparable to those guys? Isn't he just as likely to combust?

I agree that the 14m is likely to go to Clemens, but if 8m goes to get us Richie Sexson instead of Minky, I'm not going to cry.

[astralpanda]

The Yankees should feel lucky to get anything for a 43 year old with no knee cartilage and a bad back. This is highway robbery. The D'Backs are retarded, but I hope it works out for them.

[levelboss]

"..but if 8m goes to get us Richie Sexson.."

the Yankees just picked up Doug Mientkiewicz; for this year, a Sexson deal appears unlikely

"if, if , if" the Yankess acquire Clemens, then Red Sox Nation might poop in their 'chowdah' (<- j/k)

[astralpanda]

pdano, Clemens won't except any less than 20 mil. ESPECIALLY if the Yanks are asking him to pitch a full season.

[GoBoSox420]

Stop saying hello roger clemens. The yankees were pushing for clemens before this, it aint up to them where he goes. Trading RJ really doesnt give the yankees Roger Clemens.

Not saying he won't go to NY, but jesus stop acting like it already happened.

[levelboss]

GoBoSox, you don't have to blaspheme to make your point

[GoBoSox420]

You're right, I dont have to do it.

[levelboss]

if you truly understood, then you wouldn't do it

[GoBoSox420]

I understand perfectly. But simply because you deem it offensive does not mean I'm going to stop.

It was hardly blaspheme, maybe taking the lords name in vain.

[levelboss]

the Lord sent His only begotten Son, Jesus, so that we all may have Salvation

so if you're gonna respect God, then respect His Son

[Atobe]

I do believe this is a baseball blog and not a religious one. Not everyone believes in god you know.

And I also do doubt cashman just trading away Johnson without having more than a gut feeling on signing clemens. Unless he's sold on Igawa or Hughes for this year.

[dudewheresmygrl]

With the 14 million the Yankees just freed, they might, just MIGHT be able to sign Jeff Weaver, the way this offseasons going.

[kyankees07]

"if, if , if" the Yankess acquire Clemens, then Red Sox Nation might poop in their 'chowdah'"

Funny sh*t.

[JohnnyDee]

The Yankees wouldn't sign Weaver if he paid them $10 million a season for 4. He sucked ass in New York. He can't handle the pressure of New York. He is Ed Whitson reincarnated.

[GoBoSox420]

Levelboss- Please shut up. You have no right to attempt to enforce your beliefs on anyone else. I am allowed to say what I want to say.

[sirfreshness]

This is a solid deal both ways. We arent going to get a Philip Hughes inreturn for a 43 year old pitcher with diminishing skills. Jackson and Ohlendorf can both be good pitchers. It is a fact that pitchers who go to college to tune there skills have a greater chance of becoming productive in the big league than pitchers who sign straight out of high school. Not everyone can come out of high school and perform at the rate of Hughs. This is a nice package becuase it gives us a solid BP arm, with 2 solid minor leaguers with potential. Gonzalez may never make it to the Bronx but he is a good player in this deal. Its appears that Cashman is stock piling lots of talent for a push at a big name pitcher (whether its Willis, Sanatana, Peavy, Zambrano when/if they become available) or a position player like texeria if he becomes available. Gonzalez is not far away from being MLB ready which we could package in a deal for anyone who wants a infielder since he can play 2B, SS, and 3B. Another thing to look at is if Jeter, Cano, or Arod went down with a injury like Matsui, Sheff did last year who would we hav eto replace them, Cairo, Philips not the best replacements so he actually gives us some depth at a postion of strength. Its also a good deal for the Dback becuase they get a big name player to be the face fo the franchise for the next few season untill Stephon Drew, CoJack, and Carlos Quintin become mroe known. RJ will have a good season he has good K/9 and K/BB rates. He may not be a 17 game winner but he will definatly do better than last years 5.00 era.

[levelboss]

who said anything about '-forcing'? i'm just telling you the Truth

and you're gonna believe or not.. it's that simple and that profound at the same time

and btw, Curt Schilling is Christian; remember that when you see him pitch

[sirfreshness]

^^^well andy pettite sing in his church's choir!!!

[GoBoSox420]

Whether or not I believe it has absolutely nothing to do with anything being discussed here. This is a baseball forum, not a place for you to witness to me. Not a place for you to judge me because I may or may not believe what you do. Fact is you cannot tell me what to type or what is appropriate.

[pinetarhand]

"The RJ projection is going to be hard, because he's 43, and the only two non-knuckleballers still producing quality seasons at 43 were/are Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens. Is RJ really comparable to those guys? Isn't he just as likely to combust?"

Clemens & Ryan were both producing like aces at age 43. Nobody is saying he's going to be an ace, but a quality season isn't too out of line.

[levelboss]

"..not a place for you to witness to me. Not a place for you to judge me.."

witnessing - yes
judging - no

i already told you that you're gonna believe or not.. that's your decision

i've said my say; the rest is up to you

[tdogg]

Okay let me try this again. IF Clemens does not sign with the Yankees (which some seem to feel is unlikely) how will the Yankees replace his production THIS year. This is not a newsflash, the AL is loaded.

Im not even convinced that Clemens for a little more than half the season is worth more than Johnson.

And last, how many folks had RJ years at 40? 41?

[pinetarhand]

"how will the Yankees replace his production THIS year."

I guess they could be thinking that Pettitte replaces Johnson & Igawa replaces Wright. IMO, those certainly aren't upgrades though.

[nickjs21]

Big picture, there's a lot of youth in the AL East and Central all of a sudden. While they both may still be the toughest divisions in baseball, they both are more wide open (IMO) than they've been in a long time.

[Mistyck]

Too bad and so sad for the Yankees and Andy...Roger won't be joining them in spring training or in April or early May!

If the Yanks want Roger, they better be prepared to wait until late May, early June and then compete with the Red Sox and Astros--both of whom have improved more dramatically than the Bronx Bombers have--to include the signing of an oft-injured lefty in #46...

How's your elbow going to hold up Andy????

[Dicky LaRue]

As a Yankee fan, I can't believe anyone is bashing the return we got here.

RJ just had back surgery and has to have injections into his knees so he can stand AND we had to pay him 16 million dollars next season to hopefully be an innings eater.

He was not a dominant force with the Yanks in AL and showed no signs of regaining that touch. Not to mention he fought with Posada and wanted anyone other than Jorge to catch him, which leads to bad clubhouse chemistry.

The Yankees just robbed the Diamondbacks. All the Diamondbacks got in return is a big question mark. If his return from back surgery isn't a success, they just traded 4 players for the privelege to pay RJ 24 million combined the next 2 seasons whether he's healthy enough to be on the field or not.

Cashman pulled off a great deal that shows tremendous foresight.

Let the Diamondbacks deal with RJ who gets rattled on the mound when the umps don't give him calls and then blows games wide open because he can't concentrate.

He wasn't a total bust for the Yanks and I sincerely believe the guy gave 100% of what he had to the Yanks the past 2 seasons, but he wasn't a good fit and he didn't want to be here any longer.

Good deal.

[tdogg]

See this is where I see logic takes a vacation.

"Tremoundous foresight."

Exactly how? I am guessing that RJ's production over the next 2 years will be worth 24 million in today's market.

"Showed no signs of regaining touch."

This is total hogwash. Many of us have said several times that Randy's peripheral stats are fine and projection systems predict a rebound.

As to whether he was a bad clubhouse presence or good fit I cant speak to that of course.

I find it odd that I keep reading RJ's health questioned while he pitched 200 innings again.

While you have added a pitcher who has admitted to being reluctant to pitch.

And another pitcher who can't handle a whole season. (Who by the way has not yet agreed to join the team)

Head scratcher.....

[bsox21]

this is the only board that calls randy the best yankee pitcher and says the yanks have no ace.

chien ming wang finished second in cy young voting u morons.

hmmmmmmmmm

[GoBoSox420]

I don't quite get it yankee fans. Is RJ still great or what? A few weeks ago when comparing the sox rotation to the yankee rotation I definitely remember hearing RJ is still a force to be reckoned with.

Now of course it's different. He's a big question mark. No longer dominant blah blah blah

[tdogg]

By the way I don't see how people are bashing the return. (At least I didnt)

I really havent examined the returns much at all.

I have merely stated that this move makes the Yankees "less" competitive. Which for me is a good thing.

[yanksfan]

"Many of us have said several times that Randy's peripheral stats are fine and projection systems predict a rebound."

And if you watched him pitch much, you know those projections are garbage. He very clearly deserved that 5 ERA. Randy was a great pitcher with no one on base. But once you put a runner on base, he starts throwing batting practice. Hitters batted .348 off him with RISP. Take any scenario involving a runner on 3rd base, and people hit at least .400 off him. Take just 3rd base occupied, and people hit .600.

To me, it means either he loses his concentration with runners on base, or he just can't pitch from the stretch any more.

I don't pretend to know anything about proper pitching mechanics, so I'm not even going to guess which one it is. Maybe his back bothered him all year and made him unable to pitch effectively out of the stretch. Maybe the back surgery will fix that, and he'll have a great year next year. Or maybe his knees are getting worse and causing his problems. Who knows. All I know is he earned his 5 ERA this year. He certainly dominated at times, so he could turn it around, but I would expect 2005 Randy at best.

[tdogg]

Actually I did watch him a lot. And if anything his great discrepancy prob had more to do with bad luck or just an outlier year considering his other stats.

Either way you seem ready to dismiss projections based off many years because of 1. That my friend is garbage.

Clearly a pitcher that gives up less than a hit an inning did not "earn" a 5 era.

[tdogg]

And 2005 Randy was a 117+ pitcher. Hardly anything to sneeze at.

[basemonkey]

...The Yankees got wasted here...the guys they got back are likely going to be role players and depth guys at best...I am amazed that a strong system like the D'Backs was able to pull off a trade without dipping close to their top 10 and still get RJ...

[JakeOD21]

haha anyone else just hear Steve Phillips say that one candidate for the Yankees rotation is "Humberto Santana"?

[Dave]

I can't believe there is anyone out there saying the Yankees lost out here.
First and foremost the Yankees have shuffled around their staff frequently over the last several years. Always buying a big name, busting, and IMMEDIATLY replacing him with another big name. Guys like Johnson were signed because of Uncle Georges hardon for them, not because Cashman thought they would improve the team. The next big name pitcher the Yankees sign will be hit not miss.
Frankly, the Yankees are starting off with more proven AL East pithers than any team in their division. Save maybe Matsuzaka going into August 17-0 or Schilling buying a pair of bionic legs Im not too worried.
Anybody who actually followed the Yankees and watched Johnson pitch regularly knows how painful it was. Johnsons whole package has always been a 95-98mph Fastball and a low 90's slider. Fastball is now in the low 90's and his slider is flat as hell. He is no longer an ace, why not dump his 17mil, grab some prospects and take a look at the highly interesting trading block over the next year and a half.
I'll laugh my ass off if Cashman takes this group of prospects and Humberto Sanchez and turns them into Carlos Zambrano or some other bonafide ace.

[Ripwa]

Zambrano? I don't think he is on the market, and if he was those prospects will not get him. If the Yanks plan on trading for anyone they will have to give up Hughes. RJ is going to be a monster is the NL and will prove that he is almost as good as Clemens. Looking at the stats i don't see too much of a difference between those 2. Frankly, I would take RJ just because he isn't the headache that Clemens will prove to be. If that Yanks don't replace RJ with a legit #2 or better they should be worried about 2nd or possible 3rd place this year.

[yanksfan]

All I know is once someone got on base against Randy, he started throwing pitches right over the center of the plate. Everyone was able to hit those pitches. Go watch his playoff game against Detroit if you don't believe me. I'm sorry, but you were not paying much attention if this wasn't painfully obvious.

I really don't care about projections based on several years of stats. How many stats do you have for 43 year old 6'10" pitchers with no knee cartilage coming off back surgery? Projections are based off overall stats and ignore situational stats, which is the only reason that 5 ERA looks out of place.

[tdogg]

I give up. Dave I cant begin to address all the stuff in your post. But if your not worried then dont be worried.

I think the funniest thing you said was guys like Johnson were signed because of GS and not because Cashman thought they would "improve" the team.

Yeah RJ's last year in Zona sucked. ERA of 171+ what was George thinking?

[tdogg]

yanksfan I know you dont care about projection systems. Because your eyeball expertise of a small sample that doesnt fit with the rest of data is so much better. Yeah lets throw the rest out.

I read the same crap in Arizona off his injury year and he rocked the next year.

[bravesrule14]

tdogg i dont know if u were being sarcastic about Randy's last season in Zona, but in case u weren't let me hit u with sum knowledge:

in 2004 in his last year with the D'backs Johnson went 16-14 with a 2.60 ERA. the loss total may not look great, but that was largly do to a lack of run support. also he had a very Johnson like 290k's with only 44BB. if u thought that is a bad year then u are strongly misguided. i hope u were looking at his 2003 stats

[bravesrule14]

i have a completely off topic statement but it is quite amusing to me, but in my MLB 06 the Show season Armando Bentiz broke the all time saves record previously held by Eric Gagne.

[plh903]

He said he had an ERA+ of 171? How is he misguided?

[tdogg]

lol braverule. I was being very sarcastic. Thus my reference to his ERA+ of 171 which is excellent.

[bravesrule14]

oh well now i look like a statistical dumbass. oh well at least i have Armando Benitez to amuse me

[jakec]

No RJ- that isn't a great looking rotation, and it's going to get worse- Yankees let Wang, a pitcher with a history of arm problems, pitch 218 innings last year, which would be almost 100 more than he ever pitched before in a season. Figure the over/under for his TJ surgery to be Memorial Day.

[yanksfan]

"yanksfan I know you dont care about projection systems. Because your eyeball expertise of a small sample that doesnt fit with the rest of data is so much better. Yeah lets throw the rest out."

Your own arguements don't hold up. What could you possibly base your projections on? Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan are the only comparable pitchers. Every other power pitcher had nothing left at this age.

You're picking your favorite stats and saying it must be a fluke because they don't line up. I watched him pitch a lot, and my observations didn't match your claims. I looked at a wider range of stats than you did, and saw a picture that both matched what I saw and made the overall stats make perfect sense.

Please tell me though, what kind of ERA would you expect for a pitcher who has a batting average against with RISP of .348?

[Yanksfan1987]

"and btw, Curt Schilling is Christian; remember that when you see him pitch"

The context of the quote is almost as stupid as the statement itself. Levelboss, stick to baseball, your religious rants degrade the value of this website. People can say whatever they want; I don't believe in God so it offends me to hear you blather about him and his "son." I hate to come to the aid of a Red Sox fan(GoBoSox420), but at the least the guy is rational.

[Kyle]

I think to fully understand a pitcher you have to take both what you see and what the stats say. The problem with the projection systems is two fold. First off they normally look a few years back and that means RJ's last season in Arizona will be helping that projection a lot. Secondly they also use comparable pitchers to create a baseline to regress to. The problem here is their arent much comparables for RJ. There arent many power lefties who pitch into their mid 40's, o and also who are 6'10.

Now on the seeing side of things he wont be as bad as last year either. First RJ's back has always been worse in the cold weather, he wont have to deal with that in Zona. Secondly I think the back injury hobbled him more than he wants to lead on last year. BUT he will not completely rebound, those problems with runners on werent entirely unlucky...he pitched scared out there and unless the move to the desert restores his confidence he will still have issues with runners on.

And to anyone who said watching him is a small sample...I have seen roughly 350 of RJ's innings over the last two years I think I can draw a decent conclusion from what I see.

Overall I expect Johnson to miss the first few starts and come back and be a solid #2 I expect an ERA around 3.8-4 and about 7.5-8 K/9. His ERA wont get down to as low as it was the last time but he will keep it low enough to be a good pitcher. The Arizona stadium is a much better hitters park than Yankee stadium was so that will negate some of the gains he will make from the move to the NL.

[mac_1103]

One point that's not getting any mention here is that the Diamondbacks have said they don't expect Johnson to pitch before May 1.

So, OK fellow Yankee fans. Let's say you're the GM and you're trying to trade *for* Randy Johnson this offseason. You're taking on 90% of his 2007 salary for at best 80% of a season's pitching, plus he wants an extension for 2008 to waive his no-trade clause. Are you offereing up Hughes and Clippard, plus a couple of throw-ins? Or maybe something more along the lines of Proctor and your 8th and 9th best pitching prospects?

[tdogg]

Guys I fully understand how projection systems work. I am not saying that they are perfect. But it DOES include last years stats.

It DOES include all his stats from last year. Not just the isolated RISP. His RISP stats last year included 41 innings. Thats it. Thats small. That BA was .348. When you compare that to his full year BA of situational stats (All of which were under .260) there is a problem.

"And to anyone who said watching him is a small sample...I have seen roughly 350 of RJ's innings over the last two years I think I can draw a decent conclusion from what I see."

Umm what conclusions? No one is arguing that Randy will be an ace. You are aware that one year before his RISP was .251. Did your 350 innings of viewing tell you that?

"You're picking your favorite stats and saying it must be a fluke because they don't line up. I watched him pitch a lot, and my observations didn't match your claims. I looked at a wider range of stats than you did, and saw a picture that both matched what I saw and made the overall stats make perfect sense."

This is more hogwash. You obviously DIDNT look at overall stats. You looked at RISP. That is not overall.

This whole argument started people when I said and still say that RJ will be a very valuable pitcher next year that the Yankees WILL miss.

How can I argue with folks who keep implying a projection system uses 2 players to make assumptions for the coming year? Who doesnt understand what?

[mac_1103]

I said and still say that RJ will be a very valuable pitcher next year that the Yankees WILL miss.

Of course, it's also entirely possible that RJ will be very valuable to Arizona while the Yankees win their division again and do better in the playoffs than they did the past two seasons. In which case I think it will be fair to say that they wouldn't have missed him at all.

[mac_1103]

I guess html tags don't work here. First sentence should have been in quotes.

[tdogg]

Its entirely possible that the Cubs will win the WS next year but that doesnt make it true. :-)

Unless his production is made up the chances are less.

[tdogg]

Lol how come when I tried to post my last text the software accused me of spam? hmmmmmm.

[yanksfan]

"It DOES include all his stats from last year. Not just the isolated RISP. His RISP stats last year included 41 innings. Thats it. Thats small. That BA was .348. When you compare that to his full year BA of situational stats (All of which were under .260) there is a problem."

What stats are you looking at? With a runner on first base, opponents hit .290 off Johnson. In games that he lost, opponents hit .298, and he had an ERA of 6.96.

"This is more hogwash. You obviously DIDNT look at overall stats. You looked at RISP. That is not overall."

You look at WHIP and base everything off of that. I'm looking at WHIP, and putting it into the context of the situational stats. Opponents hit .206 off him with the bases empty, .290 with a runner on first, and .348 with a runner in scoring position.

The facts are Randy Johnson was a great pitcher with the bases empty, but fell apart with runners on. It's obvious if you look at the stats, and even more obvious if you watched him pitch. You can't acknowledge that, and only care about the overall average.

"This whole argument started people when I said and still say that RJ will be a very valuable pitcher next year that the Yankees WILL miss."

Randy Johnson will probably pitch 180 or so innings due to missing the start of the season. If his back was the cause of his regression last season and the surgery goes ok, I would've expected his numbers to be in the ballpark of his 2005 numbers, most likely a little worse. If the back surgery doesn't solve his problems, I'd expect a season similar to last year.

With a choice between a $16 million pitcher with a 5 ERA or whatever we find at AAA, I'd go for the rookies easily.

"How can I argue with folks who keep implying a projection system uses 2 players to make assumptions for the coming year? Who doesnt understand what?"

You don't seem to understand how the major projection systems work. Your projections aren't based on your own stats, but rather the stats of other players who had similar seasons. The projections determine players who had similar seasons to your most recent seasons, then look at what those players did in the following year. Your projections are a weighted average of what the other players did. In every projection system, the strongest weighting factor by far is age. After that comes the other stats.

With that in mind, who do you think his projections will be based on? Clemens and Ryan are the only similar pitchers. Do you think Randy's projections are going to be based on strikeout pitchers 10 years younger than him? Or do you think they'll be based off the stats of knuckleballers in their 40s?

[Brickhaus]

"This is total hogwash. Many of us have said several times that Randy's peripheral stats are fine and projection systems predict a rebound."

OK, let's check his peripherals then. I'm pretty sure the only stat that has stayed similar is wins:

Over the past 3 years (2004, 2005, 2006):

K/9: 10.62, 8.41, 7.55 (worse each year)

HR/9: .66, 1.27, 1.23 (trending worse generally)

BB/9: 1.61, 1.88, 2.63 (worse each year)

BAA: .197, .243, .250 (worse each year)

IP: 245.7, 225.7, 205 (worse each year)

ERA+: 171, 117, 88 (worse each year)

So, again, which exactly of his peripheral stats make it likely that he'll bounce back? Maybe it's the fact that his fastball is about 10 mph slower than is was in 2002?

I'll buy the argument that his DIPS was lower than his actual ERA last year (it was), but EVERY indicator shows that he'll be a worse pitcher this year than he was last year, adjusting for context, and he wasn't that great of a pitcher last year.

[mac_1103]

"Unless his production is made up the chances are less."

In 2006, Johnson pitched 36 of his 205 innings in April, so they already had to replace that production, even before the trade. Pettitte is a reasonable bet to replace the other 170 innings. Also remember that they were counting on Pavano going into last season, and had to use Sidney Ponson, Aaron Small, Kris Wilson and Sean Henn for 8 starts. Not to mention Shawn Chacon for 11. These guys combined to give them about 130 IP with an ERA+ somewhere around 65. Upgrading that should be a snap (all it would take is Rasner and Karstens throwing 10 starts of 6 ERA each). So then all Igawa needs to do is replace Wright's 140 slightly below average innings. Asking for 25 starts of a 5 ERA is not exactly expecting the guy to be an ace.

Trading Johnson by itself does not improve the Yankees pitching, but looking at the loss of Johnson in isolation from the rest of the staff is pretty bogus.

[mac_1103]

I should add just for giggles that SG over at RLYW ran 100 Diamond Mind projected seasons each before and after the Johnson trade and Mientkiewicz singing. The Yanks average about one in less per season after these moves. And he ran these pluggin in Karsten and Rasner, not doing something silly like counting on Hughes to throw 200 ace quality innings.

Also, I'm only aware of one projection system that relies much on comparable players performances -- PECOTA. Most of the others just take a league- and park-adjusted weighted average of the players own previous performance (usually his last three seasons) and regress to the mean. The systems differ in how much they regress and how they weight the previous systems. Some throw in an age-based injury predictor. So in a word, Randy Johnson's ZiPS for 2007 doesn't have a damned thing to do with Roger Clemens' 2006.

[mac_1103]

one Win less per season -- 96 instead of 97. Gotta learn to type.

[tdogg]

"OK, let's check his peripherals then. I'm pretty sure the only stat that has stayed similar is wins:

Over the past 3 years (2004, 2005, 2006):

K/9: 10.62, 8.41, 7.55 (worse each year)

HR/9: .66, 1.27, 1.23 (trending worse generally)

BB/9: 1.61, 1.88, 2.63 (worse each year)

BAA: .197, .243, .250 (worse each year)

IP: 245.7, 225.7, 205 (worse each year)

ERA+: 171, 117, 88 (worse each year)"

Again I am not arguing Randy will return to 2 year ago form. (A vastly different situation with a different team, defense and league) Im not even arguing or even said he would be at 2005 form. What I said is his stats didnt back or warrant a 5 ERA and it was incorrect for many to imply he was finished (or any of the other colorful things used)

"In 2006, Johnson pitched 36 of his 205 innings in April, so they already had to replace that production, even before the trade. Pettitte is a reasonable bet to replace the other 170 innings. Also remember that they were counting on Pavano going into last season, and had to use Sidney Ponson, Aaron Small, Kris Wilson and Sean Henn for 8 starts. Not to mention Shawn Chacon for 11. These guys combined to give them about 130 IP with an ERA+ somewhere around 65. Upgrading that should be a snap (all it would take is Rasner and Karstens throwing 10 starts of 6 ERA each). So then all Igawa needs to do is replace Wright's 140 slightly below average innings. Asking for 25 starts of a 5 ERA is not exactly expecting the guy to be an ace."

This is more valid. I think the biggest difference is Im comparing a staff with Johnson AND Pettitte.

[bobo]

tdogg is spot on here. Johnson is clearly in decline, nobody is contesting that.

But even if his downward peripheral trends continue, his ERA should be closer to 4 than 5.

He's definitely a $16M a year pitcher, and I think the Yankees got the short end of this one.

-From a Yankee fan who continually watched Johnson stink it up last year.

[mac_1103]

You know, bobo, it is possible for a trade to benefit both teams. But since you think the Yanks got the short end, I'll ask the question I posted above again:

"Let's say you're the GM and you're trying to trade *for* Randy Johnson this offseason. You're taking on 90% of his 2007 salary for at best 80% of a season's pitching, plus he wants an extension for 2008 to waive his no-trade clause. Are you offering up Hughes and Clippard, plus a throw-in? Or maybe something more along the lines of Proctor and your 8th and 9th best pitching prospects?"

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Come July/August this trade is going to kill the Yanks. The team that got the best of this deal was the Red Sox.

[bobo]

I would offer a Clippard-type in addition to Vizcaino (or Proctor if he were a free agent in 2008), and demand that the team trading Johnson pay ~$5M of his salary.

The Yankees should have got someone with more upside and shouldn't have had a problem throwing in a few million more.

[bobo]

It's definitely possible for a trade to benifit both teams. But I don't see how this benefits the Yankees short of adding some depth to the bullpen (while blocking some young pitchers).

[Aduncaroo]

This trade is only good because it will free up salary. What they do with that will determine if it is good. The players they got are a bonus. Its kind of like stock options that you can only cash in if they hit a certain price. These guys they got back are better than a pure salary dump, but only if they contribute. Still, if they get Clemens, every Yankee fan will be pleased about this trade, as they should.

[DentalPlan]

I think this is a bad trade for both teams, actually. The Diamondbacks shouldn't have given up so many guys for a guy so old. Time catches up to everyone, even RJ. As for the Yankees, who did they get? Defensive minor league shortstops are a dime a dozen, and the pitchers are okay but they don't look like quality major leaguers. As for the idea that these guys will be spun off for a starter like Santana or Willis, that's ridiculous; no team is going to be fobbed off with Humberto Sanchez (the guy from the Tigers) and some of these guys while the Yanks have Hughes and Wang. That's the problem when you have talent in the minor leagues - to get good/great players you must give up your best talent. That's why when the Angels call on other teams, they get nothing done, because people won't settle for Tommy Mendoza and Sean Rodriguez, they push for Adenhart and Brandon Wood.

The Santana idea seems especially ridiculous. Looking outside of Wang and Hughes, the Twins have a handful of better pitching prospects than the Yankees do. Willis, you're not going to get him for the likes of Jackson and Tyler Clippard, other teams would pretty handily best that deal.

Clearing salary is nice but since when do the Yanks need to do that? Clemens may not even be as good as RJ - Clemens wasn't that great in his last year in the AL East, and if Bronson Arroyo can struggle in the AL and own the NL, what does the switchback mean?

[pdano]

Dental, you say that trading for "good/great players" means giving up "your best talent," but the Yankees had Jose Tabata and Philip Hughes last year and managed to trade for Bobby Abreu without giving up either. Clearly, these deals happen, and the Yankees are accumulating minor-leaguers better than the ones it took to get Abreu.

[tdogg]

Forget I read this. Baseball prospectus....

"Now, those sorts of splits aren’t always about luck. There could be something about pitching out of the stretch that is driving that discrepancy, perhaps something related to Johnson’s balky back or his heavy use of his slider. But let’s take a deeper look at the numbers:

* Johnson struck out 20.6% of batters with the bases empty, and 19.8% with someone on base. Not much difference there.
* He yielded an unintentional walk to 7.1% of batters with the bases empty, and 9.9% with the bases occupied. That difference is a little more substantial, but it’s also a natural adaptation that a lot of veteran pitchers like Tom Glavine make: there’s more incentive to challenge a hitter when there’s nobody on base, leading to comparatively lower walk rates.
* Johnson’s BABIP with the bases empty was .239. With runners on, it was .369. This is almost certainly a matter of luck.
* So perhaps the big difference is that Johnson was getting hit up for extra bases more often with runners on base? Well, this is true: his home run rate was nearly twice as high with runners on (4.6%) than with the bases empty (2.5%). But the funny thing is that Johnson was actually doing a better job of keeping the ball on the ground with runners on. His groundout-to-airout ratio was 1.09 in those situatuons, as opposed to 0.78 with the bases empty. In other words, more bad luck.

I’ve got news for you: the Yankees might not be trading their #4; they might be trading their #1. Johnson’s ERA PECOTAs out at 3.52, which is the best in the Yankee rotation by some margin. You can take that PECOTA with a certain grain of salt because it’s so hard to find appropriate comparables for Johnson. But the names that PECOTA does come up with — Roger Clemens foremost among them — are a reminder that you shouldn’t bet against a great pitcher until you absolutely have to."

[mac_1103]

"you shouldn’t bet against a great pitcher until you absolutely have to"

Nate Silver is a smart guy, and Randy Johnson certainly could pitch like an ace in 2007 and make him look even smarter. OTOH, another really smart guy used to say that it's always better to trade a player a year too soon instead of a year too late. I'll take Branch Rickey's baseball wisdom over Nate Silver's any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

[tdogg]

"I'll take Branch Rickey's baseball wisdom over Nate Silver's any day of the week and twice on Sunday."

Not really understanding what that has to do with the price of tea in China.

Especially since there is not exactly a risk in not trading Johnson. Not like a king's ransom was received. Besides the more I read the more I think its becoming unlikely Clemens will be a Yankee imo.

[tdogg]

Not to mention as one who has read Jackie Robinson's biography Rickey's "wisdom" has plenty of opinions that are not exactly stellar.