Justin Verlander Projection

I've posted my thoughts concerning Justin Verlander for 2007 from a fantasy baseball point of view at RotoAuthority.  I wouldn't call him a bust, but I don't think he'll provide good value.

While I've got you - Phils fans should check out a new website from a loyal MLBTR visitor, James.  It's all Phillies prospects, all the time at Phuture Phillies.

Also, check out Jeff Sackmann's take on the Jeff Suppan signing over at BrewCrew Ball. 

Another good read: Nate Silver writes why the Mets should definitely not trade Lastings Milledge for a mere Joe Blanton.

Comments

[TheRealErik]

Intuitively, it seems impossible that a AAA park could be tougher than Shea.

Obviously, the Mets really need a starter. They can't rely on on-pitch Pelfrey and constantly injured Humber to fill the void.

[kyankees07]

Rich Hill taken ahead of Verlander? Hill was good down the stretch, but I would take a 3.97 ERA with a 94-100 MPH fastball+ a pretty good curve.

[kyankees07]

Even though he sometimes can't throw to 1st or 3rd sometimes, LOL!

[A2000]

Yeah, but that was just the WS pressure on a rookie he should be back to normal if his arm holds up.

[Aduncaroo]

Wait until after next season to judge Rich Hill. If he pitches even close to how he did the last couple months of the season, he is going to be striking over 200 out. He has the best curve in baseball along with a + fastball. Verlander is still more proven however, and its tough to bet against him. All I'm saying is wait to judge Hill.

[youalreadyknow]

Verlander pitched injured for about half of last season and thus couldn't throw his most effective secondary pitch very often. He was relying on his fastball far too often because of this.

Projecting him to be worst than some of those guys and thus not a great fantasy pick is wrong IMO, but to each his own. Hopefully others take after you and allow people like me to get a steal.

I'd put Verlander down for an ERA around 3.5 myself.

[Aduncaroo]

I'll give him 3.7. If he was in the NL, I'd give him 3.4. Thats the advantage that Hill has over JV, he gets to pitch to a pitcher at least 2 or 3 times a game. I guarentee that Hill will stike a pitcher out at least half the time. I don't think anyone is really saying that Hill is really better, but pitching in the NL is going to be a factor for him. Its tough to compare two completely different pitchers. JV is a power pitcher and Hill is a lefty with a nasty curve that he makes you respect, then throws a fastball that freezes the hitter. He is about deception, JV can just blow it by them and then drop the curve.
Now that I think about it, they are almost exact opposites. JV relies on the fastball and will fool you with the curve when they start looking for it. Hill makes you have to look for that curve, and when you do, throws a fastball that makes a hitter look stupid. So again, tough to compare. JV is solid and proven, Hill is nasty but unproven.