Latest On Todd Helton Trade

UPDATE: Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News says the Rockies are demanding an elite prospect from Boston, which might hold up the deal.  The Rox have agreed to pick up $40MM, but want one of Daniel Bard, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen, Clay Buchholz, or maybe Jon Lester.  Fat chance on Buchholz or Bard.

Tons of Todd Helton stories in today's papers; let's see if there's anything new.

Michael Silverman posted this info yesterday but I didn't mention it: the Rockies are the driving force behind this deal.  Makes sense, given that Boston has no strong need for Helton and shouldn't give up a lot of young talent.  The Rockies have made proposals, but the Red Sox have rejected all of them.  Silverman mentions most of the names we heard yesterday: Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen, Julian Tavarez, Mike Lowell.

Nick Cafardo mentions that back in November, the talk was about a Helton for Manny Ramirez trade.  Not sure how that would make sense for Boston.  Cafardo says the current talks don't include Manny.  He says the Rockies want one or two young players who can help soon.   

The Denver Post says Helton wants a deal made soon, if it happens.  He may or may not have imposed a deadline on the Rockies.  He confirmed his interest in Boston to the paper.

The New York Daily News says the Red Sox are insisting on the inclusion of Matt Clement and Lowell.  Clement will pitch by the All-Star break in the best case scenario after September shoulder surgery.  Bill Madden's source says the essence of a deal is in place, and the Rockies have agreed to eat half of Helton's contract. 

Comments

[SierraM]

Now this deal is starting to make more sense. If the Sox use this deal to unload Clement and Lowell, get the Rockies to eat half the contract, and not have to give any good young players in return, I'd say go for it. Helton at 16 million per year is grossly overpaid. At 8 million he's a bargain.

[achilles17]

I wouldn't call him a bargain, especially not in a few years, but it wouldn't be as absurd.

This trade makes no sense for the Rockies. They are trying to dump payroll - why would they take on the overpaid Clement and Lowell, AND eat half of Helton's contract? I'm sorry, but that will never happen.

[bobo]

As a Yankee fan, I fear O'Dowd is out of his league here.

The Sox are getting the Rockies to take Lowell (probably overpaid by a couple million) and Clement (overpaid by about $7M) and pay half the contract?

So Boston's basically getting Helton for $36M over 5 years, or $7M a season.

There better be some damn good prospects going to the Rockies. If Ellsbury is not a part of this deal, the Sox are making out big time.

[boomshwa12]

maybe the sox would include a youngster like hansen or delcarmen in the deal to make it please the rockies. otherwise this deal makes little sense for them.

[Guitar Hero]

achilles nailed it on the head. and the rockies better get 2 good prospects back anyway if they are gonna eat something like 40 million.

[kevmill21]

if he takes clement thats 17 million dollars a year between clement and half of helton's salary, i have a feeling o'dowd is really going to blow it here, obviously clement's contract has either one or two more years on it and not 6 but still, the only way this is sensible for the rockies if they get something like clement, youkilis (definitely not lowell) and delcarmen

for the red sox, i think they get them to take clement but then they give up a good prospect like delcarmen or ellsbury to include fuentes, i know someone mentioned this earlier but this is the only way this trade makes a ton of sense for either team

[PITCHINGWINS]

What no one here is mentioning is that Lowell and Clements contracts are over after this year. Rox get to trade Helton's 17 per 5yrs for Lowell's and Clement's combined 19 per one yr, and get either Hanson or Delcarmen, and maybe even Tavares. I'm not saying this is a great deal for Rox at all .. but if you are ging to do a salary dump you can't expect two good prospects in return, come'on now guys.

[PITCHINGWINS]

and of course paying some or half of the Helton's salary .. still makes it a legit salary dump trade.

[PITCHINGWINS]

As for the Redsox .. I don't mind having Helton. Not because his name is Helton, but because if guys like GMJ and Juan Pierre are making 10mil a yr .. then a guy with a career .333 batting avg. is deff. worth 8-11 mil. I'd be very happy with Helton if he batted around .310, 15-20 HRs, 90-100RBIs and gold glove 1st base.

[RotoAuthority]

Pitchingwins is right. The Rox would be freed of all major obligations after the '07 season, that's the idea.

[desturbd1]

It's worth mentioning that if the deal included, say, Lowell, Hansen, and Tavarez, Boston wouldn't exactly be pulling a NY and taking on a ridiculous amount of money. While well stocked in pitching and, to some extent, outfielders, Boston's farm is pretty devoid of corner infielders. This means that if they stand pat right now, in 2008 they'll have to address either 1st or 3rd via free agency or trade anyway. If they can get Helton at $10MM a year and move Youk to 3rd...yeah, defensively they'd be taking a hit, but they'd no longer have to worry about filling a corner next year. Further, since Lowell and Tavarez make around a combined $10MM, 2007's payroll wouldn't be increasing.

Personally, I'm not sure I'd want to give up Hansen in that deal. By which I mean, I genuinely can't decide how I feel. To be certain it looks pretty bad for the Rockies, but at the same time...a dump isn't supposed to be pretty.

[jmonahan7]

It seems like nobody really knows how they feel about this deal including me. Id love to have Helton on the Sox but not at the cost of Hansen, Delcarmen, or Ellsbury. Maybe Delcarmen but the other guys have major superstar potential and i wouldnt want to trade them for an aging first baseman. Maybe they'd take Edgar Martinez instead? If it were something like Lowell, Clement, Martinez, and Tavarez for Helton and maybe squeeze Fuentes out of them to solidify the closer role id be all for it.

[kevmill21]

they'll be free of clement, but will still be paying 8 mill a year or so for helton, unless they're talking about doing something upfront which i doubt, so for dumping 10 mill a year its not worth giving up your best player (questionable) but definitely your franchise player unless they get something respectable in return

[boomshwa12]

if the rox pulled off the deal and had 19 mil coming off the books next year, would anybody think they could make a run at carlos zambrano? he's got the stuff to pitch at coors, and that would give the rox a pretty good staff in 2 years. they wouldn't have much money left to lock up atkins or holliday but they'd be pretty good for a year or two.

i just thought i'd add some fuel to the fire here

[boomshwa12]

that's assuming the deal is for lowell, clement, and a prospect or so

[tmar]

boomswhaw12

First, I think they'll be paying at least 5 mil per year of Helton's salary. So in 08 they'd only have freed up 11.6 mil of salary.

Second, I don't see Zambrano hitting FA. He seems to like the Cubs and they'd be stupid not to lock him up.

Third, if he was a FA he would cost more than 11.6 mil per year.

[ejruiz777]

This is what I see happening and, I have to admit, it seems to make plenty of sense for both teams involved.

BOS gets 1B Todd Helton and $37.8M ($16.6M in both 2008 and 2009 plus $4.6M in 2012 for the buyout)
COL gets 3B Mike Lowell, SP Matt Clement and RP Hansen/Delcarmen

The salaries dumped by Boston are more than what they take on by acquiring Helton ($18.5M versus $16.6M) in 2007. The additional cash from Colorado would allow the RedSox to keep Helton for the next two years (2008 and 2009) at no cost to them. The Rockies would also take care of Helton's buyout, cutting his contract short by a very expensive year. That would leave 2010 and 2011 as the only years for which Boston would be fully financially responsible for Helton. In other words, they would have him for the next five years at the additional cost of only $33.8M (considering the fact that they actually trim payroll in the trade for him).

I insist that the Sox should snag soon-to-be-FA closer Brian Fuentes ($3.5M in 2007) by simply throwing in Julian Tavarez (and his $3.1M salary, thus maintaining the balance in monies owed) and their top prospect: CF Jacoby Ellsbury. Who knows, maybe the could get him while dumping Crisp instead of Ellsbury! I'm surprised this hasn't come up in talks yet, but I hope it will.

[achilles17]

...except that makes no sense for the Rockies! Think of it this way: it effectively wouldn't free up any payroll for the Rockies until 2010. Why in the name of God would they do that? And to throw in Fuentes in top of that?

Look, the Rockies aren't stupid. They won't dump players just because Boston wants them. The only reason they would get rid of Helton is if they can free up payroll this year, or at the worst, next year. In your scenario, nothing like that is the case. You also suggest tacking on Fuentes and Tavarez to the deal - yet Fuentes is inarguably bettter than Tavarez. The Rockies aren't going to give up their closer for a relatively poor middle reliever, just because they make the same amount of money.

This trade isn't going to go anywhere, and if it does, I guarentee that Red Sox fans will be dissapointed, especially given the way they have been salivating over the possibility of giving up basically nothing for Helton. If something like this does happen, the Rockies should just give up as an organization.

[bobo]

Nobody's saying that it's not a salary dump, and I don't think anyone implied that Lowell and Clement are on the books past 2007. But who cares? Add up the players (or more specifically their value, positive or negative, in terms of dollars relative to their contracts) and money changing hands, and see where the deal stands - like ejruiz77 did.

Clement's value is about -$7M. Lowell's is about -$2M. So by trading them to the Rockies the Sox save $9M. The Rockies give the Sox ~$45M (half the total owed to Helton). So basically the Sox are going to pay Helton $91M over 5 years, and they are gaining $45M + $9M (for Lowell and Clement) = $54M. So they are, in reality, paying $37M over 5 years for Helton.

As others have said, this is a bargain. Pierre is barely league average (if that), and he's making more than that. If the Rockies get no prospects from the Sox, the deal is clearly in Boston's favor.

So there are 2 ways to even it - less money from the Rockies (or take Clement/Lowell out, which is equivalent), or add prospects from Boston.

What would Helton get in a 5 year deal on the open market right now? Based on his history, assumed recovery, healthier back (?), defense, eye, etc. - I'd say around $11-12M a year. Say $57.5M. Reasonable?

So, either the Rockies should include $25M instead of $45M (the $20M is the difference between Helton's market value and how much the Sox would be paying in the scenario described above) to make it fair (or include $32M and not take Clement, etc.). OR take prospects that are worth about $20M. Obviously valuing prospects is a lot tougher, but we're talking about A LOT more than Hansen. Probably more than Hansen and Ellsbury too.

Would you want your team to pay $20M + their salaries for those 2 players? Didn't think so...

I think what ends up happening is the Rockies include about $30M and get Hansen, Lowell, and Clement.

That makes it about fair for all. Thoughts?

[Tony]

What's wrong with clearing up salary for 2010?!?!

The point is to be able to resign Holliday and Atkins. If they can snag Hansen and clear ~$30 million, they'll be able to resign them. Meanwhile, Lowell hitting at Coors will put up numbers that are only marginally worse than Helton. If the Rockies go with some sort of platoon instead, Baker/Koshansky will do the same. I'd rather have Hansen, with Lowell and Clement for 2007 and be able to resign Atkins and Holliday any day. Helton will be lucky to put up .290/20/100 this year. Baker will do that at Coors and he might not even be their best option.

[DoctorCurveBall]

Matt Clement
Delcarmen OR Hansen

for

Todd Helton.

Mike Lowell moved in another deal.

That move makes the most sense for both teams.

[bobo]

DoctorCurveBall - and how much money? That's the main issue.

Lowell's almost a non-issue because his value is very close to zero (whereas Clement and Helton both have massive negative value).

[PITCHINGWINS]

the dame deals are basically getting said over and over again .. the only thing that ppl can't seem to agree on is how much money Rox chew .. I think around 30 mil.

[PITCHINGWINS]

same** not dame, sorry

[Tony]

Yea I can't see the Red Sox dealing Hansen AND Lowell. I would think Lowell would actually have some value at $2 million. Enough to snag a decent reliever, which they'll need if they deal Hansen.

[Tony]

Yea I can't see the Red Sox dealing Hansen AND Lowell. I would think Lowell would actually have some value at $2 million. Enough to snag a decent reliever, which they'll need if they deal Hansen.

[jakec]

If Rockies are really paying half of the remaining salary, this deal doesn't make any sense. Maybe pay half the next two years, take back Lowell and Clement, and a middling prospect- that way, bu 2009 they are completely free of the contract.

Plus, I would think Rockies only take Lowell if they have a landing place for him. San Diego? Maybe Dodgers, who then are free to move LaRoche in another trade? But, I haven't seen any rumors as to this part of the deal.

[bobo]

"I would think Lowell would actually have some value at $2 million."

What's the $2M?

What would he make as a FA on a one year deal? I think around $7-9M. His salary is $9M, making it about a wash. He might have slight negative value.

The Padres won't take Lowell at that price, with Kouzmanoff. The Dodgers have no reason to play him over Betemit even if they do trade LaRoche - not at an extra $8M+.

The Rockies don't need him, but would actually have a place for him (though I think the best idea would be putting Baker/Hawpe at first and leaving Atkins at 3rd).

Teams that might make sense:

Milwaukee?
Pittsburgh?
Los Angeles?
Minnesota?

Other than LA, none of them have the money apparently.

[bubbacrosbysucks]

LAA should trade:
CF/3B Figgins, OF Rivera, 1B Kotchman, IF Aybar, and P Saunders (3+1.25+1+.33+.33=5.91 mil, 11.91 with Helton's 6.)

for

10-million/year Helton, P Kim, and 3B Atkins (10+.33+1.25=11.58)

It's absolutely perfect for both sides in that the Rox get a potentially gold-glove 1st Baseman while having two young speedsters, a powerful outfielder, and their future #1 starter. At the same time, the Angels get homer-producing 1B and 3B along with a cheap 5th starter.

[JerseyMetFan]

Helton does not produce HRs.

HR
2004: 32
2005: 20
2006: 15

OPS away from Coors
2004: .990
2005: .871
2006: .781

I don't know why anyone would want him. He's clearly a product of Coors, and isn't worth giving up decent spects.

Hell, I would probably take Lowell over Helton regardless of salary.

[quintjs]

The Rockies are not getting Lester either, nor Buchholz, Bard, Ellsbury..

The Sox have Youk and Lowell, Helton is not a major upgrade over either of them,

The Sox do not have to make this deal.

Maybe they might get MDC or Hansen because there are other options.

[levelboss]

Ortiz, Manny, Schilling, Papelbon, Beckett, Wily Mo, Varitek, Hansen, Lowell, Lugo, 5 prospects, and $10 million for Helton

AHAHAHAHAHAHA

[nrmax88]

that was so funny i forgot to laugh

[rugbyboy11]

I think this is a great deal for both sides involved if it were to go like this.

Rockies get..

Lowell, Clement, (2 expiring contracts), Manny Delcarmen and David Murphy (two major league ready prospects), and PTBNL

for

Todd Helton
$40 million

Think that works out for both teams. Rockies get to free up some much needed money while getting two major league ready talents.

Sox get a guy who will get on base.

And for people talking about Helton's power numbers. The sox do not want him for power. They'll probably put him batting second in front of ortiz where he has the opportunity to bat .330 or so and score 115 - 120 runs.

If the rox want elsbury, I can almost guarentee that fuentes would have to be part of the deal.

[DentalPlan]

How is Todd Helton this hot commodity? He's veering off towards Sean Casey territory.

A guy who takes a good number of walks and has fading power, anyone think Todd Helton is morphing into Scott Hatteberg before our very eyes? I wouldn't go crazy to obtain him. I'd ship off Manny Delcarmen, I don't have faith in that guy anyway. But the best prospects? No.

OBP is great but I don't like where the power is going on Helton and Drew. Plus all the big hitters being lefties is a lot of pressure on Manny, especially considering Manny really struggled against lefties in 2005. A lefty specialist could knock down the bottom of your order. B.J. Ryan could decimate your lineup.

[rawr]

Why on earth would the Rockies want Lowell? They have a younger, more talented 3rd basemen in Adkins.

I haven't seen a single trade proposed here by a Red Sox fan that didn't end with the Rockies getting screwed over. The Rockies GM is more likely to screw over Theo, just like he did to the Astros GM when he got two solid young pitchers for Jason Jennings.

[Aduncaroo]

They don't want lowell, but he could be a good clubhouse guy and he plays good defense, and he is gone after one year. The point is that they are willing to take it on to get rid of 5 or 6 years of Helton's contract. Again, its not that they want lowell, but that they would be willing to take him and his one year, overpriced contract.

[hood]

They see Atkins moving to 1B because Ian Stewart will come up and play 3B. This way they have a stop gap 3B til he is ready maybe by the end of the year. Then if Lowell is having a decent year he can be moved at the deadline for a prospect. I like the deal for both teams DelCarmen, Lowell and Tavarez + 40 mill. for Helton.

[nrmax88]

rawr that post is stupid. Do you expect the rox to trade Helton and get David ortiz back? Its called a salary dump dude.