AL Starting Rotation Projections

My AL starting rotation projections are up now at RotoAuthority.  Have at it.  I don't see any obvious fan bases I've angered but you never know.

Also hop over to AllCubs.com to see #9 on the list of the worst Cubs in recent memory. 

Who will be the first Marlins starter to go down from injury?  It almost seems inevitable these days with young pitchers.  Anibal Sanchez had a scare recently.

Nate Silver weighs in on the Darin Erstad signing.

Bucco Blog doesn't see Jeff Weaver as a Pirate.

Comments

[RotoAuthority]

What, no outrage?

[rawr]

My guess is that Twins fans and Angels fans will be outraged.

[JohnnyDee]

The Sox rotation is gonna implode....Beckett sucks Schilling and Wakefield are old. Dice K might be a stud but the rest of them is gonna bring him down a notch...

Go Yankees

[organizedfamine]

I'm a Red Sox fan and I don't like this projection. Maybe if there was some explanation I could understand why you came to that conclusion. Not only do I think it's probably not that likely that the Red Sox will do that well but the Yankees are #2? Really? I didn't realize that Igawa, Pavano and Pettitte were that good. Pettitte had a year worse than Johnson's last year.

Good analysis though JohnnyDee. Really thought threw. What about Mussina who's almost as old as Schilling with more of an injury history? What about Pavano and Igawa who both suck?

[mike]

typical yankee fan the sox rotation will implode. should we talk about the yankees rotation right now? or lack of rotation i should say. are the yanks really counting on pavano that much to be a part of it? or one of their unproven young guys in the minors to really step up? can wang repeat what he did last year? which mussina will show up? the first half mussina who was very good or the 2nd half mussina who was average? how will petitte do back in the AL. so if the sox rotation will implode then as a sox fan i will say the yankees rotation will do the same. but sure yankee fans now think clemens will return to their team when we all know its the astros or he will retire.

[mike]

oh yeah schilling is old too but still had an era under 4, averaged less than a walk per start, pitched over 200 innings. but sure just cause he is old he will implode. i love when yankee fans talk about age. mussina and petitte are not exactly in their youth but sure you guys did get rid of johnson to have even less pitching depth. brilliant move by the yanks. funny how you didnt say anything about papelbon guess you cant say he sucks or is old so there wasnt anything for you to work with there. must not be too bright huh? every rotation has question marks but im sure the sox rotation will implode just cause a yank fan says so. cant wait to see how your fans react when a bunch of no name minor league guys are thrown into yankee stadium and get booed off the field

[mike]

wakefield could be replaced at anytime during the season too by lester. which would give the sox 4 starters in their 20's no im not saying lester will pitch but all reports are very good on him health wise right now. id take a rotation of
schilling
beckett
mastsuzaka
papelbon
lester

anyday over the yankees rotation

[JohnnyDee]

Guys,

Chill. I am not a Yankees fan. I am a baseball fan and I was just giving my opinion that I don't see the Red Sox having the best staff in the AL and I threw in the Yankee thing since it was the Sox. I also think the Yankee staff is no good..they both have question marks...

[mike]

why dont u tell us who u think will have the best staff then and why? also why dont u tell us more reasons why the sox staff will not have the best besides beckett sucks and schilling and wakefield are old. if you wanna talk baseball then come up with some better reasons. till then people are just going to think your a yankees fan who can't give reasons why you feel that way. if you add go yankees to an end of a post pretty much bashing the sox rotation people are going to think your a yankees fan. every staff in baseball has question marks. yes im a sox fan and i do think the sox could have the best or one of the best staffs in baseball. schilling will give it all his final season, he likely wont put up ace numbers but the sox don't need him to. i expect beckett to do much better this year the new pitching coach should make a nice impact on him. i also expect papelbon to be a solid starter watching most of his games he started in the minors he has the make up to be a very good starter, matsuzaka speaks for himself he has all the hype but he can back it up with his nasty stuff, wakefield is the only guy who concerns me right now but like i said he could be replaced by lester at anytime

[yanksfan]

organizedfamine, Pettitte is a huge step up over Johnson. Pettitte had a bad first half and an excellent second half. He generally gets better as the season goes on, and for some reason he tends to have a lousy first half once every few years. He'll probably pull off about 18 wins give or take with a high 3 or maybe low 4 ERA.

Past that... Wang's career is too small a sample size to predict much. But the guy usually averaged something like 10 pitches an inning, which says he's got to be doing something right. I'd say the infield defense is the biggest variable in his performance. If they end up with a good first baseman and A-Rod reverts to his pre-2006 fielding ability, Wang should do well.

Past that, it's Mussina and a mix of random guys. Mussina will probably be the same as the last few years. Dominant at times, mediocre at others, and questionable late in the season. The rest is a random mix of people without much major league experience between them. As opposed to last year's random mix of people with lousy major league credentials. Of course Pavano will retain his spot on the DL.

Boston's certainly has better odds of having a great rotation than the Yankees do, but they've got just as many questions.

Oh, to the guy who said you can't talk crap about Papelbon. The guy missed the last month with a shoulder injury, and now you're expecting him to pitch more than double the number of innings. And performance as a closer doesn't say anything about performance as a starter. Mariano Rivera was a good minor league starter, and one of the best closers ever, but he was pretty bad as a major league starter.

[mike]

papelbon's shoulder problem was based on pitching multiple days in a row. he never had any shoulder problems as a starter in the minors. its putting less stress on the shoulder pitching once every 5 days than maybe 3 or 4 days a week with pitching maybe back to back days or 3 days in a row. anyone with common sense knows that puts much more stress on a shoulder especially with the way papelbon was pitching just going out there and giving his all. papelbon did start some games as a starter in the majors sure it was a small sample size but he did manage to do pretty well in those games. now that he is a more experienced pitcher and knows the AL well i can say i expect him to be a good starter. i hate when people bring up his shoulder problem thinking it will hurt him as a starter. another typical yankee fan reaction they try to make it look like it will hurt him as a starter. sure he could have a shoulder problem as a starter im not saying he wont but the odds are less of that happening as him in the rotation. baseball america projected papelbon to be a number 1 or 2 starter in the majors. im not sure mariano rivera was ever that good as a starter or ever projected to be that good of a starter when he was in the minors

[Ripwa]

"Pettitte is a huge step up over Johnson."

Ha, thats wrong on so many levels its humorous. Johnson was pitching in the AL East last year compared to the NL Central and still put up better numbers. His WHIP is better, his K/9 is better, his opponents OPS is lower then Pettite, he walked less players, basically the only stat that Pettite is better is ERA. The Yanks were insane to trade Johnson and Pettite is not a good replacement. You say Pettite should be good for a sub 4 ERA? Thats just dumb. He only posted a sub 3.99 ERA once in his last 6 years with the Yankees. But i'm sure this year he is ready to break out. Do any Yankee fans look up anything before they say stuff? FYI, because you say stuff doesn't make it true. Johnson was a good pitcher last year and Pettite will not do better then him in the AL East.

[bobo]

I'm a Yankee fan, and will readily admit that the Sox have a better rotation, albeit not one without question marks. I would guess that the Sox cumulative ERA would be in the 3.7 range, with the NY's around 4.10 or so.

I don't think that's enough of a difference for the Sox to overcome the Yankees' advantage on offense and in the pen, but that's why we play the season.

Yes, before you say anything, I have seen the projections for team runs scored (one in particular, I think PECOTA, had the Yankees with a 4 run lead), and I think they seriously underproject many Yankee hitters.

Again, we'll see. Clemens could absolutely make the difference.

[bobo]

I think he meant that Pettitte is a huge step up over Johnson's results last year (or at least I hope he meant that), and he is.

Just like how Johnson would be a huge step up over Johnson's results from last year.

[yanksfan]

I fully realize Papelbon's shoulder problems were because of the closer's workload. Point is, he had success in the majors by putting 100% into every pitch he threw. Even pitching one inning at a time, that's not sustainable. He's going to be a very different pitcher as a starter.

I'm not saying he's going to be bad, or that he'll be good. Just that he'll have to pitch with a different style than he did last year, which makes him a big question. I wouldn't be surprised if Papelbon had a great year... I just don't think you can go into the season expecting it to happen.

BTW, Rivera's career stats. Scroll to the bottom for minor league numbers:

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/players/playerpage/8019

His minor league stats look really good with the exception of a 6 game stint at AAA in 94.

[yanksfan]

Ripwa, Johnson was a terrible pitcher last year. The guy did great with the bases empty, but totally lost it whenever runners got on. That doesn't work unless you plan on pitching a perfect game every time. Ever watch the guy pitch for the Yankees? The look on his face said it all. Once he started giving up hits, he didn't know what to do to stop them.

Johnson vs Pettitte in general, sure, Johnson's a much better pitcher. But since 2004, Pettitte has improved and Johnson has declined.

Who knows, maybe Johnson was terrible last year because of the back injury. Maybe he'll be a good pitcher again once he recovers from the surgery. But I wouldn't bet on it. Pitching in the NL West sure won't hurt though.

[beauhoopman]

Roto-
I think this is an excellent list. My first instinct was that the Red Sox are too high, but with a little thought, there aren't many rotations in the AL that really do project better. I think the Yanks are high, and if the Indians have any bullpen success this year they might be higher. I just cant see the Yankees rotation and bullpen being better than Anaheims. But overall I think the list is well thought out.

[Kyle]

You do realized that Papelbons shoulder slipped out of the socket throwing a pitch. That is a scary injury that could just as easily happen at any point at time. There is no treatment he has just tried to strengthen his shoulder muscles to keep the shoulder in place.

On top of all that he has never thrown more than 150 innings in a season. This year will be a real test for him.

The Red Sox rotation has more potential than anyone in baseball but they also have the most question marks. There really isnt a person in that staff that you can point to and say he will give me 200 innings of solid pitching. Everyone has either a performance or injury concern. So I wouldnt be that suprised if they posted a 3.8 cumulative ERA but a 4.5 wouldnt suprise me either.

Someone mentioned Lester as a solid option when someone gets hurt but the problem is Lester wasnt good last year. He walked way too many batters and his K rate dropped a lot. Lester could really use a year in AAA.

As for the Yankees they have a lot of solid options with very little upside. No one on that staff really profiles as anything more than a 2. The Yankees rotation isnt about upside so much as it is about consistency.

The Yankees rotation probably wont be better than the sox but if you include bullpen ERA's i bet the Yankees beat the sox by a bunch

[organizedfamine]

Yanksfan, look at the years Pettitte and Johnson had least year. Other than ERA a hurt Johnson beat Pettitte in pretty much every category. He was significantly better in WHIP and BAA. You're obviously not looking at how Pettitte did last year in baseball's weakest division if you think that Pettitte's improved since 2004. Just because your ERA drops for a short time from pitching in the NL doesn't make you a better pitcher.

You're right about Papelbon being a different pitcher in that he won't be putting up an ERA under 1. It's not he was good as a closer because of "blazing speed" though. He doesn't have blazing speed. It's his control. He had a K/BB of 5.77 and walked only 1.7 batters an inning. I'm not saying those are going to be quite as good either, I'm just saying they demonstrate great control. Of all the poles I've seen on ESPN and baseball blogs all over the internet, fans picked Papelbon as most likely to be the Red Sox ace in 2007 in every one of them. And for the record in 2005 he was even better as a starter than he was a reliever, putting up an ERA that I believe was in the 2's. I think it's pretty safe to say that barring any injuries it's a pretty safe estimate to say he can put up an ERA under 4 next year. He has potential to do even better though.

[organizedfamine]

*polls

[beauhoopman]

stripper poles or firehouse poles? :)

[levelboss]

"Yankees rotation isnt about upside so much as it is about consistency."

the Yankee starters have a little more leeway simply from the fact that the Yankee bats can compensate more so than those of any other team (case in point, Randy Johnson's 17 wins despite a 5+ era last year)

so, if the rotation can hold teams to say 4 runs or less consistently throughout the season, then in most cases the offense should be able to pull off a win

[bobo]

I think the Yankees are following the St. Louis model - win the regular season however you can, and in the postseason, put the ball in the hands of starters who aren't true ace quality, but have the potential to throw very good games. Plus their top starters rarely get totally bombed - so with their offense they always have a chance.

Top to bottom, their rotation is pretty similar to last year. The offense is improved over the Sheffield and Matsui-less lineups they had most of the year, and the bullpen is deeper.

The Sox offense will be better with Lugo and Drew, but they aren't without question marks. I've seen some negative projections for Manny, but I don't really believe them. I think the pen is the biggest concern, but that's probably the easiest place to improve during the season. I bet Dotel is a Red Sock by mid-July.

[levelboss]

"..win the regular season however you can, and in the postseason, put the ball in the hands of starters who aren't true ace quality, but have the potential to throw very good games"

then perhaps pursuing Roger Clemens by June isn't such a bad notion.. emphasizing Clemens for the playoffs

[beeniez]

There wasn't a rotation in baseball that posted an ERA of below 4.00 and you people think those numbers are high? That's a very generous list and if everyone in their current rotation stays healthy. I don't think there was a team in baseball had an entire rotation of 1-5 stay healthy the entire year. If anything, those numbers are low. Don't get so upset because your team isn't #1 by a .5 margin.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"You do realized that Papelbons shoulder slipped out of the socket throwing a pitch. That is a scary injury that could just as easily happen at any point at time. There is no treatment he has just tried to strengthen his shoulder muscles to keep the shoulder in place."

Technically, it slipped forward forward in the socket due to shoulder fatigue. There were no tears, no disclocation it is called a transient subluxation event. This is the main reason he is being moved into the rotation. It is an injury that with increased muscle strength and without pitching multiple days in a row, the Red Sox medical staff shouldn't bother him again. This might make them limit his action going into September if the Red Sox are in a position to make the playoffs, just throwing him out there and expecting 200 innings would be a little reckless with a recent fatigue injury history.

"The Red Sox rotation has more potential than anyone in baseball but they also have the most question marks. There really isnt a person in that staff that you can point to and say he will give me 200 innings of solid pitching." Ummm, I'm pretty sure Curt Schillings has that tattoo'd on him somewhere.

" think the Yankees are following the St. Louis model - win the regular season however you can, and in the postseason, put the ball in the hands of starters who aren't true ace quality, but have the potential to throw very good games" I think Andy Pettite has that tatoo'd on himself somewhere.

"I think the pen is the biggest concern, but that's probably the easiest place to improve during the season. I bet Dotel is a Red Sock by mid-July."

This bullpen is going to suprise alot of people. There is no definied lights out closer as of right now, but its constituted by a bunch of decent arms. Dotel isn't the closer by mid July, if the spot isn't claimed by someone in spring training, the Sox have enough inhouse options to go with that they won't need to waste prospects to get someone from the Royals. Hansen is going to be in Pawtucket till he remembers that he is a dominant reliver, Bryce Cox is a name to keep an eye on, that kid is filthy. Edgar Martinez has pitched really well over the winter, and the way he pitches he could make a good bullpen addition come july/august.

In general I like the projection the way it is drawn up, and as a Sox fan I really love it.

While I loathe everything even remotely related to J.D. Drew, I like the way the offense is composed, the rotation looks beastly, and I'm not worried about the bullpen. Heres to hoping we finally knocked the Bronx Bastards from the top of the Al East.

[Slayer]

The Royals starters with a sub 5 ERA? I'd be surprised if more than 1 pitcher to start more than 15 games for them is able to accomplish that.

[Ripwa]

yanksfan

Yes Johnson was bad with runs on, but so was Pettitte. You look at his splits he wasn't any good with runners on either. What stats exactly are you looking at to justify Pettitte in any way being better than Johnson. Johnson put up equal or better numbers in every major category while pitching in the best hitters division. Pettitte hasn't been getting better the past 2 years as you say, he has been pitching in a weak hitting divison. Of coarse Johnson will look like he is regressing, he went from the NL West to the AL East. You act like Pettitte is a spring chicken and is a logically assumption to improve. He is a 34 year old pitcher that put up average to good numbers besides 2005. Also, he didn't improve in any way shape or form last season. He actually went down in almost all categories. Pettitte is a clear down grade to a Yankees staff that also has Igawa in it which many believe to be a 5th to long relief pitcher. I just don't understand how any Yankee fan can sit there and believe they are truly a better starting rotation this year than last. But that is besides that fact. Please someone that believes Pettitte and Johnson are even equals give me one true stat to prove it, i would love to have my mind changed.

[bobo]

"the Sox have enough inhouse options to go with that they won't need to waste prospects to get someone from the Royals. Hansen is going to be in Pawtucket till he remembers that he is a dominant reliver, Bryce Cox is a name to keep an eye on, that kid is filthy. Edgar Martinez has pitched really well over the winter, and the way he pitches he could make a good bullpen addition come july/august."

They definitely do have good relief prospects, but relying on them is a fool's game. For every Papelbon or Wagner who jumps in and is immediately successful, there are 10 Todd Coffeys who look great in the minors and can't hack it. That's why most closers are eased into the role. And don't underestimate the pressure of Boston. If Shandler says guile is important, I believe it.

Cox has thrown about 30 IP, none about A-ball. I've read bad things about Martinez and how he's having problems developing a secondary pitch. Hansen - who knows? Sure he's incredibly talented, but are you really comfortable counting on him to be your closer when his K/BB ratio in AAA was barely above 1?

It's certainly possible that any of these guys contribute, but you could find a similar group of prospects on almost every team. Relying on them to make up key parts of your bullpen seems silly.

[yanksfan]

"Yanksfan, look at the years Pettitte and Johnson had least year. Other than ERA a hurt Johnson beat Pettitte in pretty much every category. He was significantly better in WHIP and BAA. You're obviously not looking at how Pettitte did last year in baseball's weakest division if you think that Pettitte's improved since 2004. Just because your ERA drops for a short time from pitching in the NL doesn't make you a better pitcher."

Stat lines only tell part of the story. Yeah, Randy had a decent BAA. Break that down - it was great with the bases empty, but terrible with runners on base. Even guys like Sidney Ponson pitched better with runners on.

Johnson's ERA was what you would expect from watching him pitch. The WHIP and BAA are the stats that are out of line.

As to Pettitte... his 2005 was the best year of his career. He had a better season than anyone not named Clemens. His second half of 2006 was similar. Ignoring the stats, he's changed his style since he returned from the elbow surgery. Not to say that he was a power pitcher before, but he has reduced his reliance on velocity and concentrates more on control than he used to.

Watch the guys play and don't judge things based on stats. Especially not things like WHIP, which have no context.

[nrmax88]

I heard on the radio the Mets gave Willie a 3 year deal and signed Aaron Sele.
Minor news

[nrmax88]

"The Sox rotation is gonna implode....Beckett sucks Schilling and Wakefield are old. Dice K might be a stud but the rest of them is gonna bring him down a notch...

Go Yankees"

Yes, but the Yankee rotation is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Ill take bostons rotation over the yankees anyday.

[youalreadyknow]

You're way off on the Devil Rays projection of 4.94 and worst in the AL.

First off, how in gods name do you figure KC will have a better rotation than TB?

Second, let's examine the core of the rotation and reasonable ERA projection ranges:

#1 - Kazmir, 3.00-3.50 ERA
#2 - Shields, 4.25-4.75 ERA
#3 - Seo, 4.50-5.00 ERA
#4 - Fossum, 5.00-5.50 ERA

Fossum isn't staying in the rotation all year long, so he will no longer weigh the team's ERA down.

Seo may not stay in the rotation either if his performance doesn't improve from his 5.00 ERA in 2006.

Niemann is likely to get at least 75-100 innings this year and is a very good bet to put up an ERA under 4.75.

So, you'll end up with Kazmir at the high end at around a 3.25 ERA assuming normal progression and you'll end up with Fossum at the low end at 5.50 assuming he's no better or worse than he's always been.

The pitcher in the #5 spot is likely to be better than Fossum as the group competing for the job in spring is Jason Hammel, J.P. Howell, Brian Stokes, Jeff Niemann, and Mitch Talbot.

When 3/5 of your rotation is projected to throw under a 5.00 ERA, including an ace who can post a low 3 ERA, and you have a group of very servicable #5's I don't see how that turns into a 4.94 ERA for the entire rotation.

Seems like you're just relying on the Rays being the Rays of past and those days are over.

I'd also lower the team ERA's of the Orioles and Mariners because of personal belief in Cabrera and Hernandez significantly dropping their ERA's, but other than that the list looks fine.

[nrmax88]

"Heres to hoping we finally knocked the Bronx Bastards from the top of the Al East."
Amen Buddy. It would be nice if for once I can laugh at my Yankee fan friends and say they blew it instead of the opposite

[ArodSucksAtLife]

I don't think Cox will be in the majors next year, I really hope he isn't. Fast tracking guys hasn't really worked too well in Boston lately, and I don't want to see them do it with Cox I'm just saying if its something that NEEDS to be done, I think this guy has the ability to pull it off. Martinez was a worry for a bit because he was mainly just gunning fast balls out there, and he has only been a pitcher for a couple of years(converted catcher). He lost some velocity aswell when he packed on some poundage. He has however worked extensively and is showing a much improved change up and slider to go along with a mid 90's fastball with plus movement.

This is from a Boston Globe column, "Of all the players in winter ball, scouts were really impressed with Sox prospect Edgar Martinez, who threw strikes and pitched like a guy who could be on the verge of making the majors. "People are often torn about Edgar because he's mostly just a fastball pitcher, but he looked like a confident kid out there when I saw him," said an American League scout who covered Venezuela, where Martinez pitched for Pastora de los Llanos. "I don't know anything about Boston's situation, but I would think if he came into camp, he's going to look pretty good compared to a lot of pitchers they have in camp."

Again I think the bullpen will be fine the way it is comprised right now, but if its not Hansen, Cox, and Martinez are some pretty good backup inhouse options that I think are a lot more likely to be gone to than say a trade for Dotel.

[bobo]

It's definitely possible, and also there's a chance that Pineiro could be pretty decent. I have a good feeling about him, and the Sox must also after giving him $4M. I just think that the Sox are now accustomed to the luxury of a reliable closer and aren't going to want to be trying kids out in the heat of a pennant race - but as a Sox fan, you know more than I do about them obviously (no sarcasm intended).

[quintjs]

uh... Don a few things to note.

Schilling, Beckett, Papelbon, Matsuzaka, Wakefield/Lester is far far far better than Schilling, Beckett, Wells, Clement and Wake.

Also I think all the spot starters the Sox had to use (24 starts by the likes of Synder and Johnson) and the ERA's were shocking, and they won 3 games. That dragged the team ERA down.

Pretty funny Don, how you take Jared Weaver as a lock, but totally ignore the years and years of great performances Matsuzaka has put up in Japan, when Japan is between AAA and MLB. Sure Weaver was great, but that was only year one of his major league Career, he is not a lock for anything great yet. You better believe he is going to get more attention and studied more this year.

Its not just Matsuzaka that improves the Sox, its Papelbon, and Beckett should be better, he can hardly be worse.

"Some chin" - If I could hit you over and over again for that remark I would, also how do you miss all the Cubs references on this site and assume east coast bias.

Also.. calm down, it is a prediction, it actually doesn't mean anything (though you would never guess reading all the comments so far)

[basemonkey]

...Erik Bedard has improved every season in the league without any signs of slowing down. Considering the trend and the stuff (he was throwing 95-96 mph last year), he has the makings to take another step up...I'm surprised he's not mentioned more on these projection roundups...I bet he might be the best pitcher no one knows about...

[quintjs]

Roto: Yes.

Heated debate is good, its encouraging, it is why you allow comments to allow people to have their say but remarks like that, its not debate.

[Guitar Hero]

I haven't read the projections yet, but can I just say that Roy Halladay's is too low. He pitched all last year with an elbow that bothered him and was still great. If he ever is healthy again, he could pitch like his 2005 self, which was even better than Johan Santana the last several years before he got hit with a liner. If he's ever full healthy, he's the best pitcher in the league. Still an amazing pitcher though.

[Guitar Hero]

Oh wait this isn't single players. I read it...THATS HORRIBLE. No way the Jays do that bad. THey had an above average staff last year and they are as good this year, barring injury (very likely).

[Guitar Hero]

Bagh. I'm outraged. THe pitchers should do even better this year for the Jays, they struggled last year. THey lost Lilly and Speier, but the rookies are more ready and there's more depth with Thomson and Ohka...hoping that at least 1 of them will catch lightening in a bottle, if not both. Plus they were still that good in a juggernaut division.

[Ripwa]

Don

"P.C. bullshit" what are you even talking about? You are being racist. You aren't even walking the line between exceptable and not. Not to mention the fact that you are completely uninformed. He was the MVP of the WBC. Baseball America has him as a top 10 pitcher in the world. It is not just bias fans that are making these judgment, it is well informed people that are much smarter than a bigot. Have you ever even visited this site? Roto is clearly a Cubs fan and he does a pretty good job of masking it. You question this guys knowledge like you know anything. Keep watching Sports Center and reading SI.

[pinetarhand]

The Jays SP ERA last year was 4.6, so he predicted about the same as last year. I don't see where you think Thomson & Ohka will be so much better than Lilly or Speier. How can you expect rookies to come in & be great right away. You can't expect Holliday to do any better than last year considering he's injury prone.
The Jays rotation may be better than this, but as far as projections go, you can't expect anyone to say this staff doesn't have holes. You also can't say that this staff is a whole lot better than last year's until we see how the rookies pan out.

[RotoAuthority]

I think Ohka and Thomson are going to both have 5+ ERAs in the AL East. Chacin too.

[youalreadyknow]

"No. I projected each pitcher based on his components and used Bill James's component ERA formula. I assume you did the same in your estimates? Or did you just look at some past ERAs.

Kazmir 3.62
Shields 4.15
Seo 5.73
Fossum 5.29
Hammel 5.66
Jackson 5.81"

First off, Edwin Jackson is the longest of longshots to be in the Rays rotation and yet you speak of him as if he were a shoo-in.

Second, Jae Seo's luck rating was the worst in the majors when he posted a 5.00 ERA. How is he projected to go down to a 5.73 ERA? And if he were to post a 5.73 ERA, common sense tells you that given the current state of the Rays AAA rotation he would be replaced before the season even reached the midway point by Niemann, Talbot, or Sonnanstine.

And lastly, my estimates are based on thorough knowledge of the pitching staff including watching each and every one of them pitch live. Knowing their stuff, injury history, current health, and past track records in both the majors and minors.

I can guarantee you that the Rays rotation ERA will be better than 4.94 at the end of the season under one condition; Kazmir remains healthy.

Also, James's projections seem to be the least favorable to the Rays staff and James's projections are purely statistically based and he doesn't like to research non-statistical data about a player. He is sabermetrics.

PECOTA projections are the following:

Kazmir - 4.13 ERA
Shields - 4.59 ERA
Howell - 4.74 ERA
Seo - 5.45 ERA
Fossum - 5.14 ERA

ZiPS and Chone projections all predict better ERA's than even PECOTA for the Rays staff.

If you're just looking at the James projections and using those however, then you're not really doing any analysis of your own and I take back my criticism since you're just publishing someone else's information.

[RotoAuthority]

My own component stats and James's ERC formula. Will speak more later on this D-Ray topic.

[pinetarhand]

"If I offend somebody, then don't read my post!"

Then nobody will read your posts. Nor will anyone respond to them. So you should just find somewhere else to post because if that's the case, then what's the point of posting? If your posts are garbage that nobody reads or responds to, then why even allow it on here. You might as well be banned then.

[Ripwa]

Ha, you complain about the D-Rays having the worse ERA and then you cite PECOTAs stats. Dude with the stats you just gave the would still only have a 4.81 and that would remain the worst on his list. The D-Rays have Kazmir and a bunch of hopeful #4s. I would also be shocked if Kazmir can mantain his health again but that is just pure speculation.

[Guitar Hero]

The Jays staff doesn't have holes. The back end has league average pitchers. What they do have are injury concerns in every spot. Thomson and Ohka are not bad pitchers and to an extent, playing in the AL East is not THAT hard. Plus, more rookies will be ready this year waiting in the wings and they have a surplus of decent pitchers, none with high ceiling, but they can step in when someone gets injured.

[Guitar Hero]

Liek this is the one point where being a homer helps you see how things are underrated. They were 5th in the AL last year in ERA and thats even with all their struggles and health problems. The depth is much better this year. And the bullpen has some young good talent to take place of Speier. Ohka and Thomson should contribute to replcae Lilly.

[rawr]

You need to ban these racist assholes, roto. Like Don and JohnnyDee

[pinetarhand]

Guitarhero,

This is a cumulative Starter ERA ranking. It has nothing to do with the bullpen. Their SP ERA last year was 4.6, which placed them 7th in the AL. The injury prone staff is the holes I was referring to. You just don't know how many innings you can get out of Holliday, Burnett, Chacin, Thomson, or Ohka. To say Chacin/Ohka/Thomson/rookies will produce league average pitching is folly. You just don't know how well or how much any of them will contribute.

[Baseballfan79]

I will take Cleveland, LAA and Detriot over Boston or the yankees current rotation anyday.

I really think Cleveland is under-rated there I think Sabbitha will have a monster year, Westbrook will have a good year, Lee will be solid and they solidified that bullpen some. Their bats arent a question with the best CF and DH in the AL (yes I would take Hafner over Ortiz).

[pinetarhand]

I say do what you did before. Erase all their posts, tell them that if they do it again, they'll be banned. This is getting really ignorant when someone says "you talk big behind your computer son".

[youalreadyknow]

"Ha, you complain about the D-Rays having the worse ERA and then you cite PECOTAs stats. Dude with the stats you just gave the would still only have a 4.81 and that would remain the worst on his list. The D-Rays have Kazmir and a bunch of hopeful #4s. I would also be shocked if Kazmir can mantain his health again but that is just pure speculation."

Obviously you don't know what a #4 pitcher is in the AL.

Shields is already a #3/4 with the potential to be a #2.

Niemann projects as a #2 if he can stay healthy.

Also, when PECOTA has Kazmir at a 4+ ERA and still has the rotation ERA lower than listed here.. you know there's a problem.

Kazmir is a very safe bet to post an ERA around 3.5 and the backend of the Rays rotation, not including Fossum and Seo, should be better than in year's past when Seth McClung and Doug Waechter wanted to add a PAT to their touchdown ERA's.

Put 2 and 2 together and that's the reason I'm willing to bet the Rays will have a better rotation ERA than 4.94 and maybe even better than the 4.8-4.85 that PECOTA projects if management puts the young guys in earlier in the season.

And if it comes off as being a "homer", I apologize. If there's any consolation, I don't think the Rays offensive production will be as good as some since there are only 2 players on the roster capable of drawing a walk and thus the team will struggle to score runs again.

[youalreadyknow]

Just for the record, I'm not trying to blast Roto's projections. Just stating how pessimistic I believe that specific one is.

I could do the same thing for the O's and Mariners, but as a Rays fan I felt most compelled to speak on them.

[pinetarhand]

" If I can take being called a "cracker" then Asians can take being called a "chin"."

Because white people don't mind being called a cracker so much, which probably has something to do with never being enslaved, put in internment camps, discriminated against, & generally not being accepted by the white American majority. By all means, if someone calls you a cracker, call them a racist because as long as you refer to orientals as chins, you will be called a racist. What you're doing by calling it harmless because it's been done to you is being passive aggressive. It makes being racist no more acceptable.

[beeniez]

"http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=mlb&statType=2&sitSplit=gsp&timeSubFrame=2006&groupByTeam=true&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1"

Almost every one of those projections are lower than what they did last year. And if they got worse, it wasn't by much and it's realistic. (ie Twins' ERA of 4.50 last year is projected as 4.52 - generous considering the loss of Liriano) The Ray's projected ERA is better than what it was last year. What significant difference did they make to their rotation? The Royals added Meche which will bring down their collective ERA significantly. Is it to the point of beating the Rays? Potentially.

You're a moron if you don't see the difference between calling someone "some chin" and "some cracker." How do you go and make some racial comment and then go "I'm not racist."? And don't try to be that tough guy that tells people he doesn't care what people think of what he says. If you really didn't care, you wouldn't be posting any of your thoughts on a message board. Not too mention that D-Mat is a lot more successful than you and he probably *really* doesn't care what you have to say. Maybe if you turned into "some chin" you'd have that type of success.

You honestly think because he's never thrown a major league pitch that he won't succeed? I'm pretty sure the Red Sox looked past his stats and scouted him extensively before they invested D-Mat - many think it's the best offseason move considering they won't have to pay a luxury tax on him.

The Red Sox and Yankees had a rotation makeover. Johnson's 5.00 and Chacon's 7.00 ERA won't be there for the Yankees anymore and the Red Sox have improved with potentially 2 more aces in D-Mat and Papelbon - improving their team ERA greatly. You're talking like he projected the Yankees as being so much better than the Angels. He projected them as a a .05 difference. That's barely one earned run difference over an entire season. And as of right now, it looks like the Red Sox rotation is about .1 better than the Angels. Do you really think that Roto is .1 biased? He changed their ERA just .1 to make them #1? Honestly? Roto, your patience is amazing.

The reason ESPN and SI favor Boston and the Yankees is because they have the history of winning a lot more than other teams. It's the safer bet. They can't predict most teams because they fluxuate so much. No one saw the White Sox of '05 and the Tigers of '06 at all. Not even their fans probably. The Angels didn't make the playoffs last year, and without any improvement over the offseason, why would they this year? Don't get so upset because your favorite teams aren't in the place you wanted them to be. This is just one guy's educated guess. It's a lot more accurate and realistic than guessing off of previous ERA's.

[Ripwa]

James is already a #3 or 4? 4.84 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, OPS .806, if that is a #3 than the Sox and Yankees have no one lower than a #2. Niemann is projected to be a #2? Maybe but not this year. He hasn't even pitched in AAA yet. Their is no need to mention stats that prove Fossum, Seo, or Corcoran is no better than a #4. You can talk about how you have seen these player, so what. I've been to Pawtucket games, that doesn't mean i can tell you the future of those players. Clearly, you have a bias and its clouding your judgement. If they have better the a 4.8 i will be amazed and all stats bare that out.

[nickjs21]

Clearly I missed something and several posts were deleted. I don't wanna know, I don't need to know, but I thought I'd point this out:

"as long as you refer to orientals as chins, you will be called a racist."
Pinetarhand, I'm PRETTY sure "orientals," while not as bad as "chins," is considered un-PC. There's just some irony there I wanted to call attention to.

And I'm one that never liked defining pitchers as "a number 2" or a "number 4," etc because really that depends on the staff they're pitching on. But for the record, last year (thank you Hardball Times):
....MLB -- AL -- NL
#1 3.60 -- 3.70 -- 3.51
#2 4.14 -- 4.24 -- 4.04
#3 4.58 -- 4.58 -- 4.57
#4 5.10 -- 5.09 -- 5.11
#5 6.24 -- 6.22 -- 6.26

As for how each team was, slot by slot, just go to the site.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-good-is-your-4-starter/

[ejruiz777]

DISCLAIMER: This post is only tangentally related to this particular topic and deals specifically with the earlier estimate for the Braves starters' ERA.

Roto,

I just finished "projecting" Atlanta's rotation for 2007 and I got remarkably different results than those you published. Again, all I did was use the pitchers' track records with the big league Braves by translating their stats into a yearly average of sorts. I did give Tim Hudson a 10% positive boost because I just think he'll be better and Chuck James a 10% negative regression because that appears to be the popular thought on him (as well as a 66% bump to all of his stats across the board in order to simulate a full season). Check it out (your projection is in parenthesis):

Smoltz - 3.27 (3.57)
Hudson - 3.82 (4.12)
Hampton - 4.27 (5.26)
James - 4.28 (4.76)
Davies - 6.15 (5.33)
Braves - 4.20 (4.53)

We're pretty close on Smoltz and Hudson at the top, with you saying that they'll be 0.30 worse than I happen to think they will be; that looks to be a pretty solid 1-2 either way. We differ most on our assesment of Hampton and Davies, with my figures for them being almost a full run lower and 0.80 higher respectively. I really don't see why you think that Davies will be that much better, while James will be that much worse. I maintain that Hampton is being punished for his time with the Rockies.

Again, all I did was use these pitchers' stats while playing for Atlanta (the sample sizes are rather small, adding up to no more than two full seasons' worth of stats at the most) and making the adjustments mentioned above. Where did I go wrong? Why do we differ so greatly? I mean, you rank us 13th in the NL while my figure would move us all the way up to 7th in your list. I'd appreciate your insight into projections and the like so that I can increase my understanding. Like I said earlier in a different thread: I don't mind being wrong, I just don't think that I am. Thanks!

[nickjs21]

"Again, all I did was use these pitchers' stats while playing for Atlanta (the sample sizes are rather small, adding up to no more than two full seasons' worth of stats at the most) and making the adjustments mentioned above. Where did I go wrong? Why do we differ so greatly?"

It's weird that you answered yourself before even asking the question.

Roto and every other projection system puts a lot o' math into this stuff, not just a look at what they've done before. Hit rates, K/9, etc, etc, and so forth.

[pinetarhand]

Honestly, nickjs21, I didn't know that otherwise I wouldn't have said it that way, but thanks for the info

[beeniez]

How much estimation goes into these projections? Do you estimate anything, or do you simply plug in previous stats into a formula?

[RotoAuthority]

I estimate components, look at growth curves. Which kind of answers the Braves question - the ERAs are just the result; my work is done in determining proper component stats. I adjust the hits for BABIP and HRs for HR/Flyball, also.

[ejruiz777]

"Roto and every other projection system puts a lot o' math into this stuff, not just a look at what they've done before. Hit rates, K/9, etc, etc, and so forth."

The things you mentioned as "a lot o' math" and not "just a look at what they've done before" all have their roots in stats and history. Projections that are not rooted in past events are nothing more than wild guesses. I believe this is why most projection systems struggle to predict breakouts and hard regressions. If what you're saying is that they adjust their figures based on something other than evidence and fact, then why put any stock into them at all? If you're making reference to luck, then please read on.

"I estimate components, look at growth curves. Which kind of answers the Braves question - the ERAs are just the result; my work is done in determining proper component stats. I adjust the hits for BABIP and HRs for HR/Flyball, also"

I think this might be the same point as the prevous quote, only further explained. Here's the thing: when you elaborated on your Mike Hampton projection, I pointed out that every single one of his peripherals has been better during his stint with the Braves than what you estimated. In case you missed it (which happens in these high traffic topics) I'll post it again.

You have him at:
4.5 K/9, 10.0 H/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9 and 162 IP
He's actually posted:
4.7 K/9, 9.5 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9 and 144 IP

Are you saying that the difference between his actual performance and your projection is just his luck running out? I don't understand "luck" stats such as BABIP and the like very well, so forgive my ignorance. You seem to think that he'll strike less people out and walk them more; that he'll become more hitable and that more of those hits will be homeruns than at any time during his tenure with the Braves? I just don't see where that's coming from, is all. He's been a 4.27 ERA pitcher with his actual peripherals for 432 IP with Atlanta, why do you think that'll change so dramatically?

As for the rest of the Braves staff, I haven't seen your breakdown, so I can't comment. I'm guessing that the same occured with them, but I can't be sure. I might be ridiculously wrong about this whole thing, but knowledge that is not challenged is not knowledge at all. Thanks for taking the time to respond to me several times.

[beeniez]

I think you might be projecting his 2005 season as a healthy starter. As much as I would love Hampton to come back to his old self, I'm not expecting him to pitch more than league average after missing almost 2 seasons. The fact that he's missed a significant amount of time has to be taken into account.

So I think he'll eventually turn back to his old self, it just might be awhile. Pitchers usually come back stronger after Tommy John, but usually after a slow start. So expect some inflated stats until he gets his groove back.

[RotoAuthority]

Beeniez is correct. And 432 IP spans far beyond what I would use to make a 2007 projection. It doesn't matter what he did 4 years ago, he is not that guy anymore. Add in the injury recovery period, even out luck-type factors, and consider aging and I think the decline in peripherals is reasonable.

[ejruiz777]

Thanks for those last couple of comments guys; that's eactly what I was looking for. You think that his age, recovery time and luck will all conspire to hold him to a 5+ ERA. I don't necessarily agree with all that, but I can see where you're coming from. Personally, I still think he'll sneak under 5 in ERA for the year, but that's just me.

Anyway, I'm just glad that we could show that fair-minded people can disagree and debate without insults and nonsense! Thanks for the insight Roto and the rest... cheers!