Cubs Done With Prior?

Three newspapers, one message: Mark Prior's future with the Cubs is in doubt.  You can ask Paul Sullivan, Gordon Wittenmyer, or Bruce Miles.

Prior recently had shoulder surgery with Dr. James Andrews, and he'll accrue no Major League service time this year.  You have to wonder if the Cubs sending Prior to Triple A initially was done with this in mind.  Now, Prior won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2009 season.

Should the Cubs cut ties with Prior and non-tender him this winter, or should they invest just a few million more to see if he can rise up out of the ashes and pitch like a fifth starter?  As Wittenmyer writes, they'd have to pay him at least $2.86MM in '08.  Sullivan speculates that his salary would be close to what it is now, maybe $3.4MM or so.  Let's say he settles at $3.3MM.

Sometimes we see teams pass on their own players at perfectly reasonable prices, just to try something new.  I hope the Cubs don't do this here.  All that has happened with Prior, all the hope and disappointment - it's a sunk cost.  The question is whether the Cubs should invest another $3.3MM in this man to see if he can provide 150 decent innings in 2008.  I think the answer is yes.

His shoulder has been a problem for years, and now it will be clean of dead or scar tissue or whatever other crap has been floating around in there.  The money is a drop in the bucket for the Cubs, and if there's a 10% chance of getting two seasons of Chris Carpenter-type pitching, they have to do it.

Here is a list of starters who signed for between $3-4MM this offseason: David Wells, Steve Trachsel, Ramon Ortiz, and Tony Armas Jr.  In the offseason I would've argued that none of them had a shot at ascending beyond fifth-starterdom, but Ortiz is doing his best to prove that wrong.  Prior fits into this class but has more potential, as frustrating as he is.

Jim Hendry said he is just going to let the rehab process take place and make a decision on Prior down the road.  That's a perfectly reasonable approach.

Comments

[wmk51]

Im really sorry for doing this....mlbtraderumors really needs to get a general message board...but this is off topic.

What do you all think abotu Borowski's situation in Cleveland. Will he get demoted in favor of Fernando Hernandez or whatever his name is?

Thanks

[cianfroccofan]

first how is that a trade rumor about borowski, you are more off topic with that. second go to indians.com and figure out that the guys name is fernando cabrera or maybe you are talking about roberto hernandez. third, what do you want, manny alexander to the nationals for a ptbnl? and fourth, does anyone know why prior wont get major league money?

[RotoAuthority]

Don't post fantasy stuff here, please. I cover a lot of it at RotoAuthority, including the Cleveland situation:

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2007/04/whos_closing_in.html

[Guitar Hero]

Isn't this kinda what happened to Tony Armas? Showed potential, injuries times 10, big leaguer but nothing special the rest of his career. I think Prior needs a change of scenery. He's not coming back to be anything of significance here. Was it rotator cuff or labrum surgery? Either way, it will be tough and he's been having them for so long, I don't think the Cubs would lose much.

[RotoAuthority]

It was neither of those; he's had a bad shoulder for years and this could be the first time he's healthy since '03. Might make sense for Prior to want to leave but the Cubs control him.

[cianfroccofan]

i was under the impression that since prior hurt himself in a major league spring training start, the one that was the day after they announced miller at 5th, that prior should really be moved to the major league roster then put on the DL. there was someone else in a similar situation a few weeks ago i dont remember who though. is this something the union will be taking up if im correct?

[thenockmlb]

Carpenter was nothing special before the Cardinals, Prior was superb, but sadly I don't see him becoming the Prior of old with the Cubs.

Old rumors insisted he wanted to go to the Padres, and I think that's going to happen sometime.