Cubs-Reds Griffey Rumor

There's a Cubs-Reds rumor making the rounds, reportedly one that originated on The Score here in Chicago.  Obviously I can't catch all the radio rumors myself, so I rely on listeners to pass these along.  Since these rumors often spread like a game of telephone, consider this one dubious until confirmed.

The rumor hitting my inbox repeatedly: the Cubs could send Sean Marshall and Jacque Jones to the Reds for Ken Griffey Jr.  Keep in mind, this one isn't even confirmed as a legitimate rumor.

Whether or not this rumor has any legitimacy, let's discuss.  In Marshall I see a strong left-handed starter under the team's control through 2011.  He's improved his repertoire and should be a cog in the Cubs' rotation for years.  In other words, very valuable.

Griffey is in the midst of another resurgence, but is at significant risk of injury at any given moment.  There's a chance playing right field reduces that, but I wouldn't bank on it.  Griffey makes $12.5MM annually through 2008, plus he'll be owed a $4MM buyout for 2009.  When I began writing this I thought Junior's contract was a lot worse.  It's really not terrible and would be somewhat offset by Jacque Jones.  I can see Griffey approving a trade to Chicago, though he could ask for his contract to be guaranteed through '09.

I can see how one could consider this trade fair.  I wouldn't trade Marshall for the risk of Griffey, but it doesn't sound absurd.  I still don't see it happening - why would the Cubs take a hit in the rotation to add more offense?  The Cubs have a strong rotation and will need Marshall over the next several seasons.  It seems more logical for the Cubs to add a reliever.

Meanwhile, CubDumb reports that the Cubs are actively shopping Michael Barrett right now.  While this might aid the pitching staff, it would likely weaken the offense.

Comments

[coastal387]

doubtful.

[Blue]

Yes, a fair trade. If by "fair" you mean "completely one-sided". If the Reds can't get any more than that, they ought to hold on to Griffey.

[spieldogg]

This rumor sounds like a Cubs homer playing arm chair GM. Chances are the Reds will get much better offers for Griffey than a marginal prospect and a 32 year old platoon/4th outfielder. Not to mention Griffey has a no trade clause which I highly doubt he will waive to go that zoo. If he gets traded, most likely it will be to the braves.

[plh903]

Hey Roto, have you gotten any emails about the Reyes and Schumaker for Buehrle swap? It's another radio rumor that's likely crap, but apparently Pat Parris is saying it on 1380 out of St. Louis.

I didn't hear it firsthand, I just saw it mentioned in the comments at VEB and BTF.

[DentalPlan]

I like Sean Marshall better than Noahl Lowry or Chuck James, believe it or not. And I don't like the Cubs or a lot of their fans. I don't know what people expect for Griffey Jr. - that Chad Billingsley, Andy LaRoche, and Scott Elbert trade you keep expecting doesn't sound realistic.

Anyway at this point it seems clear that Jim Hendry is simply willing to sabotage the future to make "a run" this year. And why not? They're not bringing back Zambrano. They're going to fire Hendry (as they should) anyway. He's backloaded a lot of garbage contracts. I feel sorry for the GM who takes over after him.

[schellis]

The problem I have with this is that the Reds starting pitching actually hasn't been horrible. Harang has been very good, Lohse and Belisle have been decent 3-4 starters, Arroyo has been roughed up in recent weeks but you couldn't move him to the bullpen either, and you have to keep a slot open for Homer Bailey now.

I've watched alot of Reds games and can honestly say that this is the best I've ever seen Jr look in a Reds uniform. The move to RF has helped him signficantly and was probably made two or three years later then it should have been.

A healthy Jr is a bargin for what he is being paid and he is also one of the very few draws the Reds have during this horrible season with him closing on 600 homers.

I could see them moving him but it would have to be for a very nice package to keep the fans from revolting.

[ptk420biatch]

Blue what do you expect the reds to be able to get for griffey? He isnt getting any younger. Marshall has lost 11 games in his career, and in those 11 games the cubs have given him like 14 runs in support. I personally wouldnt want the cubs to make this trade, I think marshall is really good and will only improve.

[Blue]

I expect a lot for a guy with a .957 OPS who will only cost $6.5 million the next two seasons ('08 and '09). ($6 million/year is deferred over 15 years.)

And oh yeah, he's about to join the 600 HR club and may challenge Willie Mays for 4th all-time. That would attract a lot of attention and a lot of fans to the ballpark in Cincinnati, even when the team is terrible.

His value should be higher than Dunn's. A lot higher.

I can't believe that rumor even made it on here. Its complete garbage. Speaking of garbage, if it turns out to be true, I'll eat a big pile of garbage and post a video of it on youtube.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"His value should be higher than Dunn's. A lot higher."

Ugh.

[DentalPlan]

Well, that money still has to be paid out regardless of when it's paid. I think it would cast some doubt on this idea the Cubs can't take any more money on, leading me to wonder (again) if all of the Zambrano contract delays are just lies.

Griffey has good value, don't get me wrong. But he'll be 38 at the end of the season, he's an injury risk and has played more than 111 games once (128) since 2001, so forth. Marshall's not a great talent, but I think he's a good one. He's just with a bad organization. I brought up Chuck James earlier, I think if Chuck James were with the Cubs he'd be holding up worse than Marshall is, James just has the better fortune to be with a competent organization that gets the best out of its players. Marshall doesn't even have a year of service time.

So if someone doesn't think the deal is fair for the Reds, that's fine, I'm just wondering what deal Reds fans think is fair, after all. I just don't think the sweetheart deal Reds fans are imagining is out there. Maybe I'm wrong.

It might behoove the Reds to wait it out and see if Marshall implodes. Sergio Mitre looks like he's enjoying his time away from Wrigley, at least when I saw him pitch last.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

He's also pretty old and a very serious injury risk going foward. if the Bobby Abreu trade last year was any guide (and Abreu is one of the healthiest baseball player around) the Reds probably shouldn't expect too much from anyone.

Of course, it's hard to say depending on what the other team's position and the bargining ability of the GMs, still though, recent track records suggest that in season trades are getting less and less benifical for the sellers.

Last year

1. Yankees got Abreu for CJ Henry (who's a big gamble at best and still sucking royally this year as a 20 year old in class A) and 2 kids

2. the Pirates managed to turn their 3 biggest trade chips (Craig Wilson Roberto Hernandez and Oliver Perez) into Shawn Chacon and Xavier Navy... OUCH

3.The Brewers got Kevin Mench and Cordero for Carlos Lee, this is probably the only case where the seller actually got something decent, but remember Cordero is hardly a low cost future guy, and Mench is still what he is , a decent platoon guy.

4. The Blue Jays got a young LOGGY for Shea Hillenbrand. there's nothing wrong with Accardo, but a LOGGY isn't exactly the most valuable commedity around.

[DentalPlan]

Accardo is the Jays' closer now, isn't he? I thought I saw him picking him saves. But that doesn't mean anything except the Giants don't know the value of things. If the Giants are the Reds' trade partners, then maybe, yeah, they can do better. But what do the Giants even have left to bungle away?

I always thought the Phillies got gypped on the Abreu trade. And good call on the Pirates trade.

I'd also like to add I don't think these secondary home run chases are the big draw people are imagining. It seems like everyone has been chasing 600 lately... does anyone even care or keep track anymore? I'm not. Rafael Palmeiro going for 3000 hits, Craig Biggio's torturous crawl to 3000 hits, Frank Thomas to 500, Sammy Sosa and Griffey Jr. to 600, A-Rod seems to be break some time-based milestone every day, and he's nearing 500, these secondary milestone chases just seem extraneous and lost in the shuffle now.

[Teetz]

How can someone think this is a one-sided deal in favor of the Reds? Sean Marshall is exactly what teams look for when trying to sell off all-stars at the trading deadline.

[Lardo]

Accardo is not a LOGGY (I think you mean LOOGY). He is right-handed and is indeed the Jays closer as said above. Jays also gave up Vinny Chulk in the trade. Great deal for the Jays. Besides, Hillenbrand was a dog who was not even playing at the time of the trade. The comparison does not have much merit.

[RotoAuthority]

For once I have to agree with the one known as Dental Plan. Secondary records aren't putting butts in the seats.

I almost didn't print the rumor because I felt it was too lopsided towards the Reds. Here we have a great two months from a player who is never, ever healthy. What's the over-under on remaining games for Junior to play over 2007-08? 185? Dollar for dollar it's still a bad contract.

In a world where league average starters get 7-8 mil or more, controlling Marshall at the league minimum is huge. As Dental Plan said, what dael WOULD be fair for Griffey if this isn't? No one is giving up frontline prospects for that kind of risk.

[Teetz]

I would even have to think hard about Marmol/Jones for Griffey.

[Baseballfan79]

seems pretty one sided for the cubs here.

If he goes anywhere he goes AL, or at least NL East/West.

I just cant see them moving him to another central team.

[worldcupfever]

Matt Murton has to be licking his lips thinking about those major league per diems again looking at the DL possibilities with a RF consisting of Griffey and Floyd.

[Teetz]

Baseballfan79. Why wouldn't the Reds trade with a central team if that is the best return they could get? The trade is onesided for the Reds if anything.

[Teetz]

"Hey Roto, have you gotten any emails about the Reyes and Schumaker for Buehrle swap?"

Oh my god, Reyes would get murdered in the American League. I'd love to go watch his games if he was on the White Sox.

[plh903]

Heh. He did alright against the Tigers.

What makes Reyes worth watching in another city other than St. Louis is that he'll be in another city other than St. Louis, presumably no longer under Dave Duncan. It would at least answer some questions.

[Aduncaroo]

I agree. You can't say he would get "rocked" when the only evidence is the world series, where the champs of the AL couldn't hit him. He is a good trading chip and because he has fallen so far out of favor of Larussa and Duncan...he should be traded anyway. I really don't understand it. Looper is now on the DL again...and they still aren't calling him up?? Seems like a bunch of stubborn A***oles if you ask me....but thats just me. He has been WORLDS better than freakin Kip Wells, but somehow he is still in the rotation. Makes no sense at all...

[Aduncaroo]

Also, as a Cubs fan...I think that Floyd has been doing a pretty good job in RF. If we could just get rid of Jones, we could have a platoon and bring Murton back up. I don't think giving up a very promising young pitcher who we control for cheap for years to come is worth getting rid of Jones. Just release him, at least that won't cost you the best answer to a 5th starter you have found in 2 years.

I like Griffey, but I just think that the team needs to upgrade relief and possibly SS...outfield is the last thing they need to be bringing more people in the middle of.

[Dave]

Griffey is definitely an upgrade in right field for the Cubs. Floyd is a great guy, and he certainly can hit the cover off of a ground ball, but the Cubs are surprisingly weak in the HR department. Fontenot and Theriot up the middle could be an above average combination in the field, but probably closer to average. DeRosa filling in around the infield and spelling KGJ occasionally would give a much more versatile look to their lineup as they are still lopsided even though Piniella seems to be centering in on a lineup.

They are built to win now and if they change the direction mid-plan things will get even worse.

I do like the early spellings of a Zambrano-Tejada deal though...

[Teetz]

So it's easier to pitch in the NL than in the AL? Reyes would get smoked in the AL. Fastball that catches the meat of the plate every other time he throws it with little movement or speed. He's had 1 quality start out of 10 this year. I'm just saying it would be fun seeing him go against the Indians at the Cell. I would say his start last year against a Tigers team that was sitting at home for a week is inconclusive evidence of Reyes' ability. Obviously Reyes' career in the majors is still too small a sample size to accurately predict his future. This is just my personal opinion on his stuff, which I think is just meatball after meatball.

[ptk420biatch]

I do like the early spellings of a Zambrano-Tejada deal though

I dont like that, nor the smell of that one bit.

[Teetz]

I think Zambrano for Tejada makes the Cubs worse this season and beyond. Unless of course the Cubs also get Palmeiro's vitamins in the deal.

[ptk420biatch]

I agree teetz, I dont understand why dave thinks that trade is even possible. The cubs wouldnt even give up LOL at saying this.............. Mark Prior for tejada.

[Dave]

It wasn't the Cubs that said no to that deal...the O's didn't want Prior, he was offered by the Cubs. They countered for Zambrano instead. I think the deal was something like Prior, Pie and Marshall for Tejada, Bedard and somebody else.

In this instance I have a gut feeling that Zambrano isn't going to be a Cub next year. I'm not saying I wouldn't want to keep him, but if we're not I'd like to get something for him. The Cubs don't have a 3-4-5 combo, they've got a misplaced 1, 3-4. It's not a good setup to rack up pitcher abuse points, especially when you're leadoff man doesn't historically see a lot of pitches. The rumblings of the KGJ deal (does not include Zambrano) is more appetizing than the Tejada thing to me, I'd be happy keeping Fontenot and Theriot up the middle, and Derosa backing up ARam and KGJ, but all of which are long shots. There's probably more than a 90% most of those guys, if not all, stay exactly where they are.

Even though Donald Veal's control has struggled a little early this year, I think he's still a good bet to see somehow in the rotation in 2008.

If I'm not mistaken Hendry has a rule about always getting pitching back for pitching dealt.

[Aduncaroo]

No...think Juan Pierre

[Dave]

On the major league level...sorry...

[Aduncaroo]

that may be true....I can't really think of anyone besides relievers that he has traded. Aardsma being the last one I can think of....so you may be right there.