Latest From Baseball Prospectus: Jacque, Snell

Will Carroll and John Perrotto have teamed up at BP to join the rumor mill, and yesterday's post is free to nonsubscribers.  Some highlights:

• Carroll reports that the Cubs could swap Jacque Jones and a prospect for Jeff Conine.  Perhaps such a move would be in tandem with Adam Dunn leaving Cincinnati.  The Cubs might want to hold on to Jones though; he's playing well lately.
• Carroll heard a far out Alex Rodriguez to the Dodgers rumor, but doesn't buy it.  Neither do I - the Yankees don't seem to be selling.  Carroll says Brian Cashman and Co. will wait until the last second to make a buyer/seller decision.  There's a slight chance Jorge Posada becomes available if they choose the latter.
• Perrotto confirms a rumor that surfaced a week ago, that Ian Snell could be had for the right bat.  Perrotto would know, as he spent time as a Pirates' beat writer.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Matt Kemp are two possible targets for the Bucs.
• The Tigers may be looking for relievers, and some possible names on the radar include Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, Brad Lidge, Salomon Torres, Damaso Marte, Shawn Chacon, and Chad Cordero.  That's most of the market right there, though Lidge seems likely to stay put.  And don't forget that the Tigers have internal reinforcements on the way.

Comments

[MWD1202]

In my opinion, I don't think you are going to see the Yankees become big sellers or buyers come July 31. It is possible they will make a flurry of moves (e.g. Farnsworth, Proctor), but I don't think anything will be dramatic (e.g. A-Rod, Posada).

With the Yankees beating up on the weaker teams in the AL recently (Tampa Bay and Toronto) and with more to come (Kansas City and Chicago), they have the opportunity to get back in the hunt for the AL East and/or the Wild Card. The only thing I think the team may possibly pull off is for some more bench and bullpen help. But with the reluctance of Brian Cashman to part with any of the Yankees top prospects (e.g. Hughes, Chamberlain), it's going to be an arduous task to pick up anybody significant.

[Chipper]

Pull the deal on Salty for Snell JS!

[Chipper]

Pull the deal on Salty for Snell JS!

[Teetz]

Why would you ever trade Ian Snell? I would trade Felix Pie for Ian Snell in a heartbeat.

[J.L.]

The rumor was ARod and the Rangers cash to the Dodgers for Loney and Betemit...which, would I guess make sense if not for the whole Boras opt out thing.

[darkstar1661]

Tim,
Did you seriously just say that the Cubs might want to hold onto Jones? Wow, never thought I would hear that from a Cubs fan...

And yeah, the Braves really need to jump if they can get Snell for Salty. He is one of the few pitchers who meets what they are wanting as return...

[jdt58]

As a Pirate fan, I really like Saltalamacchia and his bat, but I really think Snell is going to be an ace or at least a solid two pitcher. Also I believe Salt is going to be an All star catcher.... All things being equal with both players, bottom line is pitching is worth more than hitting. (reference gil meche) None the less the pirates need to find chemistry that works, I would trade Snell and Doumit for Saltalamacchia and AA Atlana prospect pitcher. Quick question, the baseball world knows about Saltalamacchia's bat, but can he call a solid game behind the plate? The pirates have had a number of young said to be catchers that can't catch...

[thecubsdontcatchtheball]

I agree with Tim,

If you project Pie outhitting Jones the rest of the way, then you deal Jones. I think the Cubs are unsure of that, so they're going to hang on to Jones, and maybe call up Pie later to see if he's regained his stroke.

Conine would be a solid vet that could help us at a few positions, and he's right handed. But if Jones can hit .275 from here on out, the Cubs should hang on to him.

[Aduncaroo]

There is no reason to trade Jones unless you are getting someone like Dye. I think if you could get Dye, then you can trade Jones and bring Pie up, no matter how he hits. He just needs at bats. With Dye, he would provide the difference you need there.

jdt58,
Oh, and Salty is projected to be below average defensively for at least the next 5 years....but I don't know how he calls a game.

[Teetz]

I'd still rather have Pagan starting over Jones. That being said, I still don't really like Jacque Jones as a baseball player. He's a complete guess hitter.

[Muggerd]

id rather sign Conine to a 15 year contract than have jones on the reds

[Aduncaroo]

Muggerd,

Nice...

Teetz, I actually agree. I really love Pagan, always have. Seems like a 4 tool player to me (not too much power) that is a switch hitter. To me, he is a tremendous 4th outfielder on a World Series team...and could be a starter here, but I don't know if we can win a championship with Pagan as your starting CFer...that being said...he is still getting better, so we will see.

Jones does play solid defense and like someone said, if he can hit .280ish with some pop...he can hit 6th and I'm cool with it....IF he isn't swinging at pitches that look like they might hit him.

[darkstar1661]

Jones was as good as released a couple weeks ago with the whole Fish trade and Cubs fans were ecstatic ~ what happened?

Anyone in the minors would be an improvement over this guy who is making millions this year and next to clog space. With guys like Murton and Pagan needing spots, I see little point in keeping him around just incase he actually does ok this month…

As far as Salty’s defense? His Arm Strength and Footwork are above average, his overall play is still developing and expected to be slightly above average and his game calling is what you would expect from a 22YO with 4 years in the organization, and it too is said to be improving nicely. PECOTA doesn’t like him behind the plate too much because he’s really tall at 6’4”, but the Braves only started to play him at 1st this year ~ telling you what they think about his development behind the plate. PECOTA also projects heavily off of a bad 2005 season at High-A, but his fielding was well above average at AA Mississippi last year. They think he will be about what McCann was the last couple years for the Braves ~ which is about slightly above average.

[jaysfan]

A-Rod to the Dodgers

Lony,and Betimit to the Rangers

Mark Tex.and and Otsuka to the Yanks
Mabe but i dbout it

[astrosburner]

^ looks like the Rangers get the fatty in this deal?

[worldcupfever]

Is this Jeff Conine related to the one that played for the Orioles, Royals and Reds about 35 years ago?

[Aduncaroo]

Dark,

As for Jones...the point is because Pie isn't hitting. If he was...Jaque is still as good as gone. But he is the best option in center unless they want to trust Angel Pagan, which apparently they aren't quite ready to do.

As for Salty's defense...all I know is that PECOTA thinks he will be below average for 5 years at least...and honestly, they are right. 6'4" catchers rarely play that great of defense and do it consistently. However, you could be right, we just don't know right now. Seems like the average projection is somewhere around him being average defensively....

I would argue that the Braves just now started playing him at first because it was the only time they had that need. I think they know that his value is a lot higher behind the plate. I also don't think the foresaw that absolute failure that 1B has given them this year....I guarantee you they are wishing they had played him once a week at first now...

[darkstar1661]

Yeah Adun, if you start looking around you will see that most articles say Salty is about average to solid in his skills behind the plate. He does nothing really bad and does have a plus arm and foot speed which should translate to plus defense as he matures and more learns pitch types in the majors to the times he will be run on. But that PECOTA projection is heavily based on 05 which was a fluke season for him behind the plate, their number-projection is skewed because of it… He was +5 last year which is really impressive so…

And yeah, the Braves knew he would develop as a catcher and never anticipated him ever switching positions. That tells you how they feel about his Def, esp when you couple it with the fact they don’t actually want to trade him even with McCann locked in the C role. Remember, he’s only in the Majors now because of the injury to McCann and horrible play at 1B ~ they would have left him down there to learn more otherwise…

As far as Jones, I still say dump him the first chance you get as Soriano could always play CF again (that’s what they bought off the market anyway) with even a guy like Conine in the OF if needed. It wouldn’t be the most amazing Def lineup, but it isn’t now so… Trading Jones later will be near impossible (like it has been for the last how many months); you take the opportunity when you get it in my mind… Otherwise we will probably be hearing the “I wish we could dump this bum for a nutter-butter and new batting-tee” a month from now…

[FiNch]

From what I've seen out of Salty his defense is pretty good. There has been some positive feedback as to his game calling skills as well. I'd say he'll be above average in about 2-3 years. Maybe not gold glove caliber, but very reliable.

And the ONLY reason he has played first is because of McCann and horrific first base production. They didn't want to move him to first, but it was what was best for the franchise and Salty obliged.

As for the Snell deal, I think the Braves should do it. They need a starter, and Snell could be a valuable asset for awhile. Even though Salty has a bright future, so does McCann, and I can't see him becoming a permanent first baseman.

[kett08]

Dear braves fans, Snell for Salty straight up is not going to happen. The Braves need to sweeten the deal a little if they expect to get Snell in return. Snell is going to be sweet, and he is doing it under Pirate coaching which stinks. If he can succeed in Pitt, he can kick serious butt anywhere else.

[junbun]

concerning jones...

i'm all for the cubs trading jones off as i have always thought the contract was stupid. however, bringing in conine? what? just doesn't make any sense. i'd probably rather have jones. i just don't see how a deal like this makes sense as it keeps murton blocked still.

[Aduncaroo]

Yeah...I'll trust you guys on Salty's D, I really don't know otherwise. Pecota might be skewing off of one year Dark, I actually find that very believable. I have found that they tend to do that with guys in the minors.

Dark,
Sori won't be playing center any more, they have nixed that experiment. Not only was he not any good because he was taking bad routes, it was making him uncomfortable and he wasn't hitting. He really turned his season around when he moved back to left.

I honestly wouldn't mind bringing Murton up and that way you are platooning Jones\Pagan in center, and Floyd\Murton in right again. Murton is hitting like .326 with an OBP over .400 in AAA, so I think he just needs ABs. He has shown a little pop there too. So you can play Jones\Floyd versus righties and Murton\Pagan vs lefties, and Murton would get more time as Floyd will need to sit every 3rd game anyway.

As for the Snell thing....I agree, I think the Braves are going to have to add to that deal. Nothing big, but maybe a AA pitcher with good numbers and peripherals that has gone a little under the radar. Snell has around the same upside as Salty, but its much more valuable from a young, cheap starting pitcher than a catcher.

[worldcupfever]

It's not Jones or Conine or anyone else "blocking" Murton, it's Murton's own shortcomings at the major league level. I *LIKE* Matt Murton, but he really played poorly during his time up this year and actually regressed as a major league player.

[Aduncaroo]

I agree...but he hasn't had consistent playing time...many pinch hit appearances, and spot starts. I also *like* Murton, but am hesitant as well. I just think that he may be a better option than giving up a good prospect to get a righty bat. That is, unless, someone will take him in a deal to get that righty bat....like Dye. like I said...Murton and Cendeno for Dye? I'd do it for both teams...

[worldcupfever]

My biggest fear is that the Cubs won't pick up a rental like Dye unless they KNOW they can move Jacque and a chunk of his money - they're not going to pay both of them for the rest of 2007. I would certainly use Cedeno as a bargaining chip, though, as his value is probably as high as it'll ever be after the first half he put together in AAA.