Phils Targeting Longer-Term Contracts at Trade Deadline

As the non-waiver trade deadline appears on the horizon, it is natural to focus on players that are just a few months away from free-agency as likely trade candidates.

But that doesn't mean players who still have a few years left on their contracts won't be dealt.  Pat Gillick, Phillies GM, recently stated that those are just the types of pitchers the Phillies are interested in acquiring over the next month or so.  From Phillyburbs.com: “We're looking at guys who would have contracts that run for 2008 and 2009,” he said. “Really, we have to find the right situation. We're not necessarily looking for a rental player. We want someone who could be a piece for us.”

It makes sense to focus longer-term as Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber, who are both injured and likely lost for the season, will depart via free agency in the fall.  That leaves Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton, and possibly Jamie Moyer and Brett Myers for the rotation.  But Moyer could retire and Myers may keep his role as closer so the back end of the rotation is by no means set beyond 2007 (heck, it's not even set beyond the All-Star break).  To make matters worse, there is little to no help on the horizon in the Phillies farm system.  Kyle Kendrick has held his own in recent weeks, but until we see more of him, the jury is out.

The trick will be finding a pitcher who is under contract whose team is far enough out of contention -- not only for 2007, but also 2008 -- that they would be willing to part with him.  Scanning the standings, it's hard to envision a scenario, but when it comes to Pat Gillick, it's helpful to look at his past history since he often brings in players and front office personnel from his previous stops.  Once such stop is Baltimore, and Erik Bedard, who is blossoming into a frontline starter is under control there for two more seasons.  Even though Gillick departed before Bedard was drafted, it's possible that he was on his radar nonetheless.

If the Orioles don't feel they can retain Bedard long-term, they might be wise to listen to offers and begin another rebuilding.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers' Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere". Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office.

Comments

[Guitar Hero]

Maybe Burnett's a fit...but he's kinda stingy, not with money but with talent so I bet he would take on a lot of salary but not give up anything in return (if they have anything).

[usctrojans31]

Gillick is the worst GM in baseball.

I pine for Ed Wade.

Perhaps we can trade Feddy Garcia for Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez.

[kuff6]

As you correctly note, there is little help on the horizon in the Phils' system. So with nothing in the way of minor league talent, what do we have that the O's could possibly want for an emerging, currently cheap stud like Bedard? And they wouldn't want vets like Rowand, since your Bedard speculation was founded on the premise that the O's don't think they can compete in the next 2 years. I think Guitar Hero's Burnett speculation makes more sense, though having been burned so badly with Garcia's shoulder, I have a very hard time seeing Gillick/Phils take on another health risk like Burnett.

[Balls, Sticks, & Stuff]

There isn't much to offer, which is sort of a whole other post. For Bedard, I think it would take Carrasco, Bourn, and maybe even another low-minors arm.

Here's the thing though, for any pitcher that has a few years left and that the Phillies think will produce, just offering Rowand isn't going to get it done.

[Laputian]

Too bad trying to work out a trade with Baltimore is more painful than pulling teeth.

[steveh]

What about the Matt Morris speculation? Thats seems an obvious fit..

Medicore (once great), aging innings eater on team going nowhere (SF Giants) who need a young OFer (Bourn) or a young lefty (Happ, Maloney) or perhaps a young catcher (Ruiz or Jaramillo - maybe Marson)

Also, I think Gillick wanted to sign him when he was leaving the cardinals 2 years ago...

[delaware_bird]

Why again would the Orioles want to trade Erik Bedard? He isn't eligible for free agency until 2010.

An offer of a double A pitching prospect and a light hitting outfielder (Carrasco and Bourn) is laughable.

IF the Orioles wanted to trade Bedard, there would be a line of teams waiting to make an offer with the likes of Milledge, Saltamalachia, and Kemp being offered as a bare starting point.

Come on. Even if he leaves as a free agent, the Orioles are assured of getting a 1st round pick and a sandwich pick. This rumor is ridiculous.

[xxxJamesxxx]

I proposed a trade for Bedard a week ago on a different site, but in my version, the Phillies would give up Victorino and Carrasco, plus another prospect. Victorino is a somewhat proven hitter at the major league level, with the possibility of a 20/50 season this year, and he plays gold glove defense in right. He's extremely valuable because he has very little service time.

Carrasco, who some of you think is chopped meat, is going to end up in the Top 30 in all of baseball, prospects wise. He's 20 and holding his own in AA. The kicker would be the other prospect that would need to be added in.

As for why the Orioles would trade Bedard....does he want to stay there? Does he want to stay on a team that will conceivably be fighting with Toronto for 4th place in 2 years? The Phillies would be wise to make an offer for Bedard now, and not to wait for a bidding war to ensue. Victorino + Carrasco + a prospect is hardly "laughable" for a guy on pace for only his 2nd full season in the bigs and already 28 years old. Bedard's injury history is kind of scary.

[darkstar1661]

Yeah, I think Bedard possibly to Atl for top prospects is more along the lines ~ if he's dealt. I don't see these two teams with little shorterm future (balt & Phi) matching up well to get a deal done

[delaware_bird]

Jamesx,
Carrasco is a very fine pitching prospect. I agree with you saying top 30. But you'd probably need 2 more serious prospects to get the Orioles' attention.
Victorino is fine, but not a difference maker. Bedard IS a difference maker.

Yes, Bedard for Victorino+Carrasco+"some other prospect" IS laughable. That proposal isn't even in the universe called 'reality'.

Please go and reread where the White Sox asked for Saltamalachia AND Escobar for Buerhle, who is a free agent at the end of this year. Bedard has 2 contract years more. Thus is more valuable.

As for the Braves, I'd guess that Jarod Saltamalachia, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Yunel Escobar would be a reasonable starting point.

That being said, I'd be strongly shocked if Bedard was traded. A starting rotation of Bedard, Guthrie, Loewen, Cabrera, and Olsen is young and talented. All that is needed is an impact bat or two.

More probable to be traded from the Orioles are Steve Trachsel and Brian Burres.

[xxxJamesxxx]

What Kenny Williams asked for in a trade, and what is plausible, are two very different things. Everyone knows that the value of prospects and 0-1 year players has skyrocketed. No one is going to trade 2 of those types for a rental. Like you said, Bedard isn't a rental, and I'm sure a lot of teams will be targeting him.

That said, I still don't think a lot of teams are going to trade 3 young players for 1 major leaguer. Salty, Reyes and Escobar are all more unproven than Victorino. You may not be a fan, but he's leading the league in outfield assists, he hits for a decent average, has 20 HR potential, and 50+ SB potential. Plus, he has 1 year of service time. That's a very very valuable asset.

[steveh]

Guys - enough with Bedard - thats not happening. They are going to build AROUND him not tarde him...Tejada is more likely to end up in Philly

As far as pitching, think Matt Morris or Bronson Arroyo.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

"Too bad trying to work out a trade with Baltimore is more painful than pulling teeth."

New COO, Angelos is apparently staying hands off.

[PeteRose]

Victorino's arm alone makes him a 'difference maker'...if I'm correctly interpreting the the use of the phrase.....not really sure, but aren't most of Victorino's assists, outs at home plate. And his reputation for accuracy is growing w/ every game.

[xxxJamesxxx]

How do we know they are going to build around Bedard? How do we know he wants to even stay there?

[ZachAttack]

Shane Victorino's arm is above average, but not great. Say what you want, but you can't judge an arm by the amount of assists an OF'er has. That is just a laughable stat. By your reasoning, Ichiro Suzuki has the 31st best arm in all of baseball.

Think of it like Soriano last year, people are just testing him more than they would a Jeff Francouer or Ichiro Suzuki.

[PhillyRocks]

Zack, Victorino might have the best arm in the league. I see him day in and day out and people challenge him all of the tima and all of the time he continues to throw them out. There is no comparison in Soriano and Victorino. Move Victorino to CF and he is the best defensive CF in the game. His defense and attitude is that good.

[xxxJamesxxx]

Im guessing Zach hasn't seen much of Victorino. He can throw a strike, in the air, to home plate from 15 feet in front of the warning track. His arm is plus plus, both in terms of accuracy and strength.

[Balls, Sticks, & Stuff]

So, I might have been wrong about Bedard's possible availability, however, there is no way we are wrong about Shane Victorino's arm. It's a cannon and he's playing a gold glove quality right field.

[HAMELS35]

Victorino might be in a class of his own in right this year. He is one of the most speedy outfielders in the game already and has a super cannon plus 25 HR potential. I think Bedard for him is very fair. If you wanna add Bourn, the'll get 50 more steals and a gread mobile outfielder with a decent arm. And if you add Carlos Carrasco, one of the top pitching prospects in the game with 15 win and 200 K potential, they rape us on that trade. So, dream all you want O's, but it ain't happening.