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Reds Could Trade Arroyo

Just a small note in Nick Cafardo's recent column: the Reds could trade 30 year-old starter Bronson Arroyo.

Last year, Arroyo took the National League by storm by posting a 3.29 ERA in a whopping 240 innings.  He led all of baseball with 3851 pitches thrown.  Either the league started figuring him out this year, or the workload caught up to him and contributing to his declining strikeout rate.  Maybe a little of both.

In February of this year, Wayne Krivsky signed Arroyo to a contract extension for 2009-10.  Under his previous contract he'll get $3.95MM in '08, and the Reds added a $2.5MM signing bonus to that.  He'll make $9.5MM in '09, $11MM in '10, and has an $11MM club option for '11 with a $2MM buyout attached.  So basically think $29MM for 2008-10.  It's not terrible but not a bargain; $10MM is probably the going rate for a guy like Arroyo these days.  Not bad for a guy waived by the Pirates in '03. 

Woody Paige considers Arroyo one option for the Rockies, but finds it unlikely.  The only past Arroyo trade rumor I know of was back in December of '05, when he was rumored to be going to Seattle for Jeremy Reed.  The Mariners remain in the hunt for a starter, but Arroyo probably isn't viewed as much more than an innings-eater by most clubs.  Some other teams possibly looking for a starter include the Braves, Padres,  Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks.

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Bronson could be a very nice pitcher for the Rockies, but wouldn't it be interesting to see the Redsox make a push for him?

Bronson has expressed interest in returning to Boston in the past, so if the price is right maybe reacquiring him could be a viable option perhaps for next year, or even this year if Tavarez is slid into the bullpen. This is all just speculation, however.

Wakefield, Tavarez, Kason Gabbard, Jon Lester, Kyle Snyder, Clay Buchholz, Devern Hansack

All guys the Red Sox have that could give you Arroyo type performances as a starter.

Arroyo would cost 30million for those 3 years, those guys combined would be half that.

Why in the world would the Red Sox want Arroyo back now? And why would they give up any talent to get him back.

I think Arroyo is a bad bet for the AL, particularly the Red Sox, where nobody can pitch in that park it seems. He throws every breaking ball at every angle in the book, but that's about all.

Lefties crushed him, and even worse in Boston, it's not going to get any easier in the AL. He kind of looks like he's heading off towards Jeff Weaver land, a guy with fine control who gets hit hard by lefties and now righties are catching up as well.

Sorry about the double and now triple post.

Arroyo won't go to the AL now, the NL have caught up to him, and in the long run, the AL would too. He did alright in Boston, but I think that may be all he has to offer in the AL.

Quint, you're right, the Red Sox can get Arroyo-like performances out of several players, but two words define his value:

Rubber. Arm.

I don't see the Red Sox going after him, but approximately league-average numbers for more than 200 innings each year carries tremendous value. That said, the soft-tossing ironman role is occupied by Wakefield, so they'd probably prefer to figure Bucholz and Lester for two rotation spots, if all goes well.

But you have to love team-first guys whose arms don't tire.

Say you put Gabbard out there, like he is now, if he gets bad, throw in Lester, and if he doesn't work out, you go to Hansack.

Rubber arm's are great, but I just named 3guys who could start for the season, for about 1/10th of Arroyo's forthcoming salary.

What is the most efficent use of money here?

The braves had to been rumored this past offseason to be looking at arroyo as a possible 3rd starter option, but hopefully that has dwindled some over the season.

And, just a crazy idea, is there any chance the Aaron Harang would be availabe, because I am pretty sure that Harang would bring back a pretty nice bounty, being a younger, similar style pitcher to Javier Vazquez

Absolutely zero chance that Harang is available. What would be the point in trading your #1 starter so you can go looking for a #1 starter? Harang along with Philips and Hamilton are the core that a rebuilding team adds. Everyone else is trade bait but not those 3 guys.

Unlike Arroyo Harang is signed to a reasonable below market value contract. There is no chance that the Reds deal him. I believe the current not on the market list of Reds major leaguers is Harang, Hamilton, Phillips, Bailey (I know he's in the minors now), and for some strange reason Alex Gonzalez.

That being said I could see the Reds and Braves matching up for a Arroyo deal.

Arroyo/Hatteburg/Weathers for Salty/Devine.

Braves get a real 1B, a extra bullpen arm that has been solid all year, and a serviceable starter that would be under team control for a few more seasons.

I believe that a deal like this would hinge on how Arroyo does in his next few starts though. He had a dead arm period of about five or six starts which has bloated his ERA, his record is the product of the Reds deciding that they don't have to score runs for him. So he's a better pitcher then either his record or ERA shows at the moment.

That being said he's not the guy he was last year either.

Schellis, I don't really like that deal for the Braves. Nothing special about Arroyo and Heeteberg and Weathers are a little long in the tooth. I think the Braves are expecting more, and will get more, for Salty than that. They's be better off trying to get a younger pitcher with more upside. Gorz. or Snell from Pit?.

Schellis,

That is about the stupidest and one of the most homeresque proposals I have heard. How about you read a few stories down? You will see that the Braves want a young impact pitcher for salty, as I have stated all along, and the Braves confirmed that is what they wanted yesterday. Why would the braves trade away two pieces who could help us now and will be big parts of our future just to get three pieces who probably would makes us worse right now. Arroyo is pitching about as good as kyle davies is, saltamachhia will provide more power at first base and more run production, and david weathers is as volitle as bob wickman is. In the first two cases, we have parts that are doing better than the parts you offered, and our parts are 8 and 13 years younger.

The Braves are only going to trade prospects if they get back a bounty that will help them now and more in the future that our current prospects would. Snell or gorze could possibly do that from pittsburg. That package of reds that you proposed would actually make our team worse than it is right now, not to mention in the future.
How about you come back to reality and realize that trade makes absolutely no sense at all for the braves and quit letting your homerism lead you down a path of ignorance.

Perhaps you should at least look at the stats before you spout off, or get past Braves homerism about prospects.

The Pirates don't really need Salty and if they put Snell out there they would most likely get more from other clubs. However I don't see a point in dealing him since he isn't that expensive.

Arroyo is better then he's shown this year someone that will eat innings and have around a 3.50-4.25 ERA, especially in the pitchers park NLE. Is he a ace caliber arm like Snell no, but if he's on the market he's probably one of the better arms out there.

Weathers has been very solid in the closer role for Cincinnati and have been very reliable. He's also under contract for next season so he wouldn't be a rental. With the loss of Gonzalez he could help stablize the bullpen, and I rather run him out there then Wickman myself. Really Soriano should be the closer.

Hatteburg is a excellent no thrills 1B. Would Salty provide more offense no question, but Hatteburg will be a upgrade defensively and he's no where near as bad with the bat as you think he is.

Perhaps asking for Devine as well kicks this up to the to much realm, but the guy seems to be the type that is always a prospect but does nothing at the major league level either.

I also don't believe that he'll get a young pitcher thats worth anything. Young cheap starting pitching that is also effective is the toughest thing to get in the majors.

Schellis, you are missing my point completely. Salty is 22 and and Devine is 23, while Hatteberg is 35, Arroyo is 31, and Weathers is 37 or 38. The point of my argument is that we are not going to trade away two of our best future assets just to possibly get better this year. The whole reason why you want salty and devine is the whole reason we want to keep them. And I know more than you seem to give me credit for. Hatteberg is an onbase machine who can hit .300-.320 with very little power. Arroyo's second half last year was very much like he has been this year, even though his 2.45 ERA in september of last year helped out ( But he will not be facing the mostly weak offenses of the nl central last year any more.) And weathers is consistient, but he can get hard at times. So my question to you is why would we trade salty for a 31 year old who would be a 4th starter on our team and a 35 year old first baseman who is a clone of kelly johnson, and then trade devine for a reliever who is an exact replica of Bob Wickman. That seems to show that this move would in now way significantly improve our team for this year. And the fact that your expect us to just give up to future pieces of our team, a possible closer and middle of the order producer, just shows how stupid your proposal is.

I would think the Reds would move him as a salary dump just as much as what they could get in return. That being said, what would the Reds be looking for? Young pitching? Youg outfielders? I guess that also hinges on if they are moving Dunn.

The Reds would want pitching (starting or relief) and I'm hoping a young catcher. When you carry three catchers and even combined their mediocre at best its a bad thing.


As for Salty the problem I have with the Braves keeping him is that he's nothing really special if he's playing 1B. There are plenty of 1Bs that will be able to do what Salty does, I'm guessing around .300 with 20-25 homers is that good production sure, but no were near as valueable as it would be behind the plate.

I just can't see them getting someone like lets say Homer Bailey for Salty, unless the team is just overloaded with young pitching talent, like the Twins.

Arroyo and Weathers to Braves for Lillibride and B. Jones and JoJo Reyes and 5 mil. each year left on Arroyos contract
Would that work in your opinion

i mean 5 mil. from reds to Braves
(Lillibridge) bad spelling

5953,

No that does not work. The braves have never, and will never give up the farm for a pitcher. Especially trading a pitcher that will likely be a #4 or #5 next year for next to nothing in salary, the future of the braves OF, AND one of the best infield prospects we have.

Come on man. Reasonable. Maybe one of the above (I'd bet Jo-Jo) and some lower prospects for Arroyo. Weathers is not what the braves are looking for. You never put two players used to closing on the same team unless you get their permission first (see gonzo).

Arroyo was a decent pitcher in Boston. Everytime he pitched it was hit or miss though. While I like him, I wouldn't sacrifice another spot in the rotation that can be had by potentially two good young arms in Lester and Bucholz. I'd take 92-97 mph on the fastball over 89-91 any day.

Schellis,

Again, try and think here man. First off, if we keep salty and he plays first for us, it does matter what his value is to other teams, because that .300 20-25 production will be worlds better than the .202 and 11 production our first baseman put up the first three months of the season.

And I guess I am just missing something that everyone else is getting, because everyone else seems to think that if salty starts 3 more games at first, he will complete forget how to play catcher. He is 22 years old, he is not going to forget how to catch if he is a first baseman for us. But the thing is that if he is a first baseman for us, he is not going to be traded because he feels the 1b need for us instead of being traded off and feeling the pitching need for us.

And finally, 5953 makes the most ignorant trade proposals ever, so just do not respond to him.

>>>The point of my argument is that we are not going to trade away two of our best future assets just to possibly get better this year

I agree with you, but doesn't that happen all the time? Isn't that what trading prospects about, sacrificing the future for the present? I'd be suprised if the Braves traded Salty but its not unreasonable that a team trades a piece of the future for the present. And while Salty looks like a great prospect and will probably be that .300/20-25 HR guy, theres no way to tell that for sure from 100 or so ABs in the majors. I'm just playing devils advocate here. Needless to say, he is too much to give for Arroyo. I'd like the Dodgers to pick him up but what they could offer doesn't match with the Reds.

J.L, oh you are exactly right, teams always give up prospects to help them now. But the thing that makes the Braves situation different with salty is that is actually an upgrade for our team now, because he makes our production go from the worst in the majors to league average, which obviously would make a big boost to the rbaves and make them even stronger. That is why I am saying the Braves would be even more reluctant to trade away salty. Usually, contenders who trade away prospects to get help for now are trading away prospects who will help two or three years down the road. But because salty is in the situation he is in, a young catcher with great offensive potential, as well as being the braves best option at first, it is just kinda reasonable to think it is going to take a lot to get rid of him.

JL,

Some teams trade their future for short term results ~ not generally the Braves though... Not trying to get into an argument of course, just playing devils advocate :p


As far as the trade itself… Salty + Devine for Arroyo + Hattenberg + Weathers goes back to all the other proposals mentioned regarding the Braves making trades…

1) it adds money commitment to a team which doesn’t have cash to spend
2) it doesn’t improve the team much over the current roster.
3) because of #2, it really only depletes the team of two extremely valuable trading chips or useful prospects to bring in a league average pitcher.

Yes, Darkstar and I were seperated at birth

Arroyo is much better than his record shows. He was awesome last year as most people know and was one of the only pitchers to pitch in Japan in the offseason. All that plus working 240 innings at a 3.29 ERA. I think it would be smart to grab Arroyo now. He is doing much better and is starting to catch fire and could be a very good #2 or #3 starter not a #4.

How about Dunn? Do the Braves have any interest in Dunn and Arroyo for Salty? It doesnt have to be strait up but just them as the center pieces. You could put Dunn at first.

hotsaucenchickin,

too much money for the Braves to take on... Youre looking at like 8m for the rest of 08 and 23m in 2008 if Dunn sticks around. If he doesnt stick around.

The Braves have said that they wont trade Salty for anything less than a young cheap frontline type though ~ and that just isnt Arroyo in any way, shape or form, no matter how much is added to the deal.

darkstar reminded me of something that bravesbeast never touched on with point 1: the braves have little desire to add payroll to this team.

evaluating the proposal from a non-money perspective, it is pretty one-sided. i'd say salty + mike gonzalez might get the job done, assuming gonzalez had successful TJ surgery. hatteberg provides slightly above league average production at 1b, arroyo gives the braves the starter for this year and the next few and weathers could help solidify the pen as a true fireman.

Tim, first post here, love the site.

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