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Rosenthal's Latest: Dunn, Wheeler, Izzy

Ken Rosenthal posted a new column last night, and has updated it very recently.  I've already spoken about the Teixeira stuff, but there's other good material in there too.

  • Some of the wilder speculation out there has been that the Twins might trade Torii Hunter or Johan Santana if they decide they're out of it.  Various Baseball Prospectus reports put the Twins' playoff chances between 5-10%.  Rosenthal debunks the idea that Minnesota would shop Hunter without first making him an offer, and keeping Santana for at least 2008 makes sense.  Plus, Santana has a no-trade clause. 
  • Rosenthal does have some Twins for us who might be traded: Luis Castillo and Carlos Silva.  Castillo has already been connected to the Mets in rumors, though Silva is a new one.  One could definitely envision Silva's style working in the National League (I know, I say that a lot).  There was a recent Silva to Atlanta rumor, though Silva's agent seems to have debunked it.
  • Rosenthal says Dontrelle Willis is not available.  Perhaps he and Tim Brown will engage in fisticuffs over this disagreement. 
  • The Diamondbacks have kicked the tires on Adam Dunn.  He might make sense as a rental - the D'Backs playoff changes sit between 16-27%, worth fighting for.  No doubt they've got a stable of young players to offer.
  • Rosenthal says the Astros have yet to receive interest on the Lidge/Wheeler/Qualls troika, while Jayson Stark said yesterday that the Astros hadn't opened shop on them.  Thunderdome match #2, Rosenthal vs. Stark.  Assuming Ken survives Tim Brown.  Anyway, word is that the Rockies have their eye on Wheeler. 
  • Parties interested in Zack Greinke: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs.  This gels with Dan Graziano's findings.  Of course, trading a player like Greinke requires an equally talented youngster in return.
  • The Royals may not be able to do better than Cleveland's Ben Francisco as a bounty for Octavio Dotel.  More on him in a separate post.
  • Trades of Joe Blanton and Huston Street are "highly unlikely."  So you're saying there's a chance?
  • The chances of the Cardinals trading Jason Isringhausen are described as "remote."  The Cards would have a hard time replacing him next year; he's got a reasonable $8MM option.  He also has no-trade protection, so he'd probably want a better extension if he was to accept a trade.

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I would love to see the Astros try and package Qualls and Loretta for Bourn and Carrasco.

Bourn has the makings of an excellent lead-off guy (good BB rate, young, fast, etc.). Plus he is rumored to be an excellent CF, which would help the Astros with Carlos Lee in left. Plus he's a Houston native.

Carrasco would give the Astros another (much needed) SP prospect to match with Patton.

Loretta would help fill the Phillies huge hole at 2nd for the next 4-6 weeks, plus he very well might be an upgrade at 3rd once Utley is back.

Qualls is a solid reliever who is under control for a couple more years and would really help solidify the bullpen for the next few years. A bullpen including Myers (who should really be starting unless the Phillies think his arm will fall off), Gordon, Qualls, Madson, and Alfonseca really isn't too shabby. Madson and Alfonseca aren't anything special, but they are certainly good middle-relievers.

If Tim Purpura really holds on to al

Oops, meant to say that if Tim Purpura holds onto all his relievers without bringing in some young talent, I will want to strangle him!

Our best pitching prospect and a promising young position player for a middle reliever and a 35-year-old roleplayer?

Deal!

What type of players do the Dbacks have to offer?

A proven ML 7th inning guy under control for another 2+ years is worth a decent amount these days.

Carrasco is a well-regarded guy, but his upside is a #2 (per Baseball Prospectus). Drabek has more upside. And Carrasco's K rate has fallen quite a bit this year. Ultimately, many pitching prospects that dominated High-A have failed to succeed in the majors. Don't get me wrong, he's a very good prospect. But ultimately, he is just a prospect. If you want to win this year, you have to give up prospects. Its not like the guy is Buccholz!

Bourn doesn't have any power and isn't expected to develop any power. He's a nice fit for a team that already has power hitters (like the Phillies and Astros), but he's not Adam Jones.

Have fun with Abraham Nunez if you don't want to pull the trigger!

Could the Dbacks offer Nippert for Dunn? If so trade TRADE TRADE

"Have fun with Abraham Nunez if you don't want to pull the trigger!"

Yes, because the only hope the Phils have to get a fill-in for Utley is to give up Carrasco and Bourn for Mark Loretta.

OK, so who would you give up for Qualls + Loretta? Or would you go after something else? Feel free to add something constructive Bourne's_Identities and davearm.

There are a lot of relievers available out there, but the asking price for Dotel, Gagne, Lidge, etc. is sounding like more than just Carrasco. Plus, those guys (1) all cost tons of money and (2) aren't under control for as long as Qualls. Both factors increase Qualls' value more than you probably give him credit for.

Anyone have a handle on the 2nd base market in terms of who is available? Sounds like Castillo might be available from the Twins. Loretta is definitely available. Anyone else? At least a few teams are looking (Mets, Phillies, maybe Padres).

If the Dodgers are going to trade with the Royals I do hope it is for Greinke and not Dotel. If they're gonna lose one young position prospect they should get a young pitcher with some upside vs. a rental of a relief pitcher. That I'd be okay with.

I actually can't wait til the end of next week, when we no longer will have to hear about Dontrelle and Texeira rumors. ;-)

"Anyone have a handle on the 2nd base market in terms of who is available? Sounds like Castillo might be available from the Twins. Loretta is definitely available. Anyone else? At least a few teams are looking (Mets, Phillies, maybe Padres)." << Probably Grudzielanek has to be another one i'd expect to be traded...

If the cardinals do not trade off available relievers it would be an atrocity. just the idea that they can limp into the play offs again instead of looking toward the future is absurd.

The twins should just package Santana, Morneau, and Mauer for Salty and Yunel Escobar, since Salty would be upgrading both catcher and 1st base for Minnesota, and he will switch hit there for 6 years cheap! Then if they agree to send Santana over too Yunel and maybe Matt Harrison should be added in to get it done. Thoughts?

nrmax - yes, but only if they include Garza, Baker, and Hunter.


Let's talk realistically about Santana. What gets it done? Joba + Tabata + Alberto Gonzalez + Sanchez?

I can see Grienke to LA, LaRoche or a Vet

KC has no need for a 3B, and no reason to trade Grienke. Maybe they get an offer of a prospect/young player that sets them up better for the future, but these types of trades are not made that often.

Can anyone explain why Tony Abreu is so untouchable? I would take Lu over him in a second.

Abreu played well but can't get by Kent. Lu could be starting by next year. Furcal has played well enough to be a trading factor.

Lu's defense is supposed to be amazing. Any Asian player with star potential has other benefits too, obviously.

Picking up a replacement for Kent with Abreu's hitting skills should be trivial and cheap. Loretta for example.

It seems the Dodgers have identified bullpen help as their number one need. There's no excuse for not trading Abreu for Dotel.

Does anyone know what picks, if any, Dotel will be worth next year? I know it's based on the based 2 or 3 years, so maybe none?

The Dodgers have already turned down Abreu for Dotel. I agree with them there, they can get more value from Abreu elswhere, and I do fully endorse trading him. I think Hu is the better player but for some reason they seem more open to trading him. I'd use a couple of these guys for a starting (Jennings?) rather than waste them on Dotel. What about LaRoche for Jennings and an Astros reliever? I think that would be fair, although it would hurt the Dodgers in the future.

bobo, if jennings can fetch three of the stros top young players from the rockies, imagine what santana would command on the market. granted the stros prospects weren't really truly elite prospects, but jennings isn't (or wasn't) nearly as good as santana at the time of the deal

both hughes and chamberlain from the yanks maybe?

"Does anyone know what picks, if any, Dotel will be worth next year? I know it's based on the based 2 or 3 years, so maybe none?"

If he is lights out the rest of the year he might be worth 1 supplemental pick as a type B free agent.

"What type of players do the Dbacks have to offer?"

A bunch of good ones.

Now can someone please explain to me the concept of jokes and sarcasm, cause I along with obviously a bunch of other posters just don't get it.


Johan for Vidro.

How about Abreu for Grienke...Dodgers need a starter

Grienke wants to relieve, that isn't nearly enough for him, and f the dodgers.

Are you saying A-Rod should end up in LA..the ultimate f-ing

boomshwa12 - I guess you're right, we can't assume that GMs won't be as stupid as Purpura was last offseason.

I can't see Hughes and Chamberlain though. If you still consider Hughes a "prospect", then he's without a doubt the #1 pitching prospect. And many people say Chamberlain is better.

I could see Chamberlain and Kennedy. Maybe Tabata too, or a couple other prospects.


What about other teams? Can you imagine what Santana would do in LA? Kershaw, Kemp, LaRoche, and Lu?

I think more likely is a reasonably established young stud player.

Fielder, Braun, Hanley Ramirez, maybe Holliday, maybe Rios all come to mind. Not saying they make sense, but that caliber of player. Then add some top prospects, I guess.

The only problem with a Santana trade is that teams wouldn't want to give up young talent like Fielder, Braun, Ramirez, or Holliday for 1 year of Santana. Maybe if they opened a window and could sign him to an extension.

But would you give up 23-year-old Prince Fielder for a year of Santana? Fielder is on pace for 48 HR as a 23-year-old! I wouldn't.

Would you trade him for a 23-year-old Ryan Braun? His stats expanded to 162 game would be somewhere around 40 HR and 25 SB, to go with his .350/.399/.676 line. I wouldn't.

Or 23-year-old Hanley Ramirez, who is on pace for 26 HR and 44 SB, to go with his .336/.389/.555 line? I wouldn't.

Santana a Dodger? What a concept. I think Kemp and Loney are untouchable. But prospects plus ummm Furcal?

i think the thing that's so intriuging about it is that we don't know what his value is. he's the cream of the crop r/n in a pitching desperate mark (at the moment anyway). idk if anybody could be untouchable if a team tried to trade for him

having that said, i would have a lot of trouble giving up a holliday, braun, hanley ramirez for him. it would be interesting to see some of the trade rumors that float around with him.

by the way, i guess i did forget to factor in that purpura is a moron in the jennings deal. i guess you'd have to account for that in that deal.

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