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The Starting Pitching Market
Let's take a look at the starting pitchers still available at this time (about 17 hours before the trade deadline). I took some liberties to include relievers who could possibly start. And I'm being generous calling some of these guys mid-tier.
Top Tier
Javier Vazquez
Joe Blanton
Jon Garland
Bronson Arroyo
Dontrelle Willis
Mid Tier
Jason Jennings
Shawn Chacon
Joe Kennedy
Carlos Silva
Matt Morris
Scott Proctor
Byung-Hyun Kim
Josh Towers
Jose Contreras
Bottom Tier
Odalis Perez
Steve Trachsel
Woody Williams
Wade Miller
Josh Fogg
Kip Wells
Mike Maroth
Ramon Ortiz
Joel Pineiro
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I've heard from a friend in Boston on WEEI said Dye is going to the Red Sox for Wily Mo and Jed Lowrie....i have NO idea if that is true
Posted by: decolores9628 | July 30, 2007 at 09:55 PM
geez. I know Jennings stunk yesterday but you'd think he'd at least make the bottom tier! lol
Posted by: dogscoach | July 30, 2007 at 09:55 PM
lol what a horrible market this year
Posted by: Zemonstar | July 30, 2007 at 09:58 PM
Bronson Arroyo is considered 'Top Tier' to you? He's awful.
Posted by: tsizzle | July 30, 2007 at 09:59 PM
Although not “officially available”, I do think Willis could probably be added as it would probably take nothing more than “the right deal”… We keep hearing back-and-forth on it, so there has to be something going on with him…
Also, where is Jennings :p
Is there a “basement tier” available?
Posted by: darkstar1661 | July 30, 2007 at 10:00 PM
those are all Mid tier or lower not top tier
Posted by: TheWrightStuff | July 30, 2007 at 10:02 PM
Jennings and Willis will be added, my bad...
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | July 30, 2007 at 10:10 PM
Dodger fans would like to offer Brett Tomko and Mark Hendrickson in the "Cellar Tier"
Posted by: jskohl | July 30, 2007 at 10:12 PM
Though you may not put Arroyo in the top tier, he belongs there in terms of prospects he'd command.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | July 30, 2007 at 10:12 PM
Bronson Arroyo is awful. That's funny.
The guy had a tired arm for about a month. They gave him a couple extra days rest, and he's been lights out ever since.
Get a clue.
Posted by: Blue | July 30, 2007 at 10:13 PM
I think Julian Tavarez of the Red Sox is available. Any takers?
Posted by: bosox1838 | July 30, 2007 at 10:14 PM
As a Twins fan, I'd really like to see Silva dealt in this weak market. To AZ for Tracy or Reynolds (3b), the Dodgers for Laroche (3b) or to Seattle for Balentien (RF/DH for us) would all be great deals for the Twins for both this year and 2008. Silva isn't going to be resigned next year with a staff of Santana/Garza/Liriano/Boof/Baker/Slowey/Perkins waiting, and Slowey could be brought up for the rest of this season to gain experience, now that Garza/Baker are really settling in behind Santana.
Rincon should be dealt as well. And Castillo is no big loss. While I thought they could have gotten more, I'm not sure Alex Casilla is any worse as an overall player right NOW for the Twins. He won't hit quite as well as Castillo, but Luis' BA was pretty empty anyway (LOTS of infield singles) and Casilla has much better range in the field and speed on the basepaths.
Posted by: djskilbr | July 30, 2007 at 10:42 PM
I don't think Silva's nearly that valuable, but he could get a serviceable B prospect maybe. All those you named were top prospects or players the Diamondbacks need.
Posted by: buehrlebro | July 30, 2007 at 10:48 PM
The D'Backs don't need BOTH of Reynolds/Tracy.
I agree Silva shouldn't be that valuable, but in this market, he MIGHT fetch a starter.
I also wouldn't mind pairing Rincon with him, as that should get you a little closer if nothing else.
Guess we'll see.
Posted by: djskilbr | July 30, 2007 at 10:52 PM
dj stop smoken crack man. Maybe somebody from zona, like reynolds or tracy but i still doubt it. Larocha or Balentein? Puhhh-leaseeee
Posted by: nrmax88 | July 30, 2007 at 10:55 PM
If Dotel gets you Balentien, I don't know why Silva wouldn't. And it was rumored that Dotel would get them Balentien if they wanted it.
Posted by: djskilbr | July 30, 2007 at 11:00 PM
Isn't Silva a free agent after this year?
Right now Tracy is hurt which makes him unmarketable and Reynolds untradeable. Besides Josh Byrnes has said many times he's not looking for a 2 month rental player.
Posted by: tmar | July 30, 2007 at 11:04 PM
Ok, can we add a “fan added incase they can bring anything - tier” as well… We are up to:
Tavarez, Silva, Tomko, Hendickson
I would like to add Standford and Cliff Lee from the Tribe to that list :)
Also, is Olsen avail from the Fish or not? Heard he was, then wasn’t, then was again ~ kinda ~ so he might be an add-on…?
And we have heard Lowry from SF, cant remember if that was from Fans wish-list or media-rumors though…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | July 30, 2007 at 11:06 PM
OK, what about Rincon and Silva to the Braves for Thorman and another prospect? They wouldn't have to give up Davies to give up Dotel, and they don't need Thorman with Tex on board.
Posted by: djskilbr | July 30, 2007 at 11:15 PM
That sorta makes sense but the Braves don't need another reliever if they get Dotel. I guess it could happen.
Posted by: buehrlebro | July 30, 2007 at 11:23 PM
That makes a tiny bit of sense if the Braves prospect wasnt a good one DJ, but why would the Twins want a 1B with Morneau there? He could help the DH situation I guess, but then you have to ask why Atl would want two pitchers that arent pitching very well at all when they are doing everything possible to get so much better... I mean, Dotel to Rincon couldn’t really be farther in value to a contending team…
Its kind of forcing a trade just to trade Silva and Ricon which you assume Min wants to do... and youre really assuming anyone wants either of them when there is much better available to be had…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | July 30, 2007 at 11:25 PM
Actually, in this market, Silva is about as good as any SP who's actually available, and in the NL, he'd be a good backend of the rotation innings-eater. Atlanta WANTS Silva. That has been rumored for a couple weeks. That's why I mention it. While Rincon has not pitched well this year, he'd be a good throwin, and he used to be one of the very best setup men in baseball, next to Shields. As for Thorman, of course he wouldn't play 1b for the Twins. He'd play DH, and that'd be a solid upgrade over the Twins' putrid crew.
Posted by: djskilbr | July 30, 2007 at 11:37 PM
Reading that list, its even harder to figure out why teams overvalue their top prospects, particually pitching.
Julian Tavarez is an option for a 4/5starter for a NL team wanting cheap help this year, and won't be a 2month rental. Rockies could bite.
Kim and Shacon are mid-tier. Wow.
Posted by: quintjs | July 30, 2007 at 11:40 PM
Well…
Silva is at a 4.76ERA mark vs a team-adjusted LgAvg of 4.39 ERA ~ meaning he has been rather high over what one would expect from a LeagueAverage starter in those conditions. To add to it, he’s had his second best WHIP total this year while putting up that bad ERA, but he’s got a BAbip average that matches his career mark perfectly (.310) ~ so its not just bad luck… His BB rate is actually up quite a bit as well, which makes it even more puzzling that he would have the better WHIP ~ but whatever. Point is, I know he can eat some innings, but I don’t know if I see him as much of an upgrade over what they already have ~ and that’s the important part!
Rincon ~ well what the heck happened to that guy? 1.755WHIP? He does have a slightly higher BAbip than he should, but that’s a horrible mark over his normals. He looks like quite a project, although he could be a steal of a deal if he’s traded for his current value ~ probably a Low-A BatBoy or something :)
The deal you proposed isn’t a horrible one, but it would probably be a fall-back if Atl just couldn’t find another BP & SP elseware…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | July 30, 2007 at 11:58 PM
Silva and Rincon's BABIPs have probably been inflated by the turf in the Metrodome, and ground balls are a crucial part of Silva's game. I think a move to the NL could make him league average.
Posted by: buehrlebro | July 31, 2007 at 12:03 AM
Exactly. Let's not forget, the NL is a JV league.
Posted by: djskilbr | July 31, 2007 at 12:07 AM
"Silva and Rincon's BABIPs have probably been inflated by the turf in the Metrodome, and ground balls are a crucial part of Silva's game. I think a move to the NL could make him league average"
Yeah, do realize that aspect of the BAbip thing as well... Still doesnt help explain why Silva's WHIP is lower than normal but BB rate and ERA are up though. I would have said maybe the infield defense, but its the Walk rate that seems to have had the biggest influence on his ERs ~ not allowing Hits, since that rate is so much lower than normal. His numbers just dont seem to make a ton of sense ~ strange...
I do think he could be closer to LgAvg in the NL ~ but its still kind of a gamble and not a guarantee ~ hence the reason I would think it would be more of a fall-back plan instead of one perused... I would probably rather give up more and get Arroyo and Dotel like is rumored than to gamble that this deal will work in my favor…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | July 31, 2007 at 12:27 AM
Thorman is worth a starting pitcher like Carlos Silva? He's 25, has a .664 OPS, a career minor league OPS under .800... isn't baseball lousy with these types of guys? Geez, let's see what stiffs like Matt Murton fetch while we're at it.
Posted by: DentalPlan | July 31, 2007 at 12:29 AM
Thorman had two near identical .300/.360/.505 lines in 05 & 06 over the two higher levels of the minors… He’s not extreme on the value spectrum because of his showing in the majors so far ~ but we are talking about a Rental in Silva who had a downright horrible 06 and is following it up with a very unimpressive line this year…
I know you don’t like him, but I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss his perceived value to other teams ~ esp those in the AL. If you think Min could get more for Silva then I would like to hear who would be willing to pay it as if he’s an upgrade over what they already have.
I mean, for all the top-prospects we have heard being asked for, the fact still remains that Loshe, Lofton, Wheeler, Iguchi and Castillo have been dealt for next to nothing…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | July 31, 2007 at 01:17 AM
Wow....I'm surprised that no one has started to rag on Contreras being a mid-tier pitcher. In my opinion I would give him away for free if someone would be willing to pay his contract. Like seriously what could you really get for Contreras with his huge contract and his lack of ability to get the job done all year?
Also Darkstar the people you named that got traded weren't all that great of players and most of them were soon to be FAs. The Texeira deal was pretty major and alot of the teams need starters and BP guy so they are willing to give an arm and a leg to get them.
Posted by: ChiBears08' | July 31, 2007 at 02:03 AM