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Yanks Done With A-Rod If He Opts Out

It's not exactly a shock that the Yankees would not strike a contract extension with Alex Rodriguez if he chooses to opt out of his contract.  The worst possible scenario for the Yankees is to abandon the $29MM the Rangers owe him and participate in open bidding for the superstar. 

On the plus side, there's no real downside for Rodriguez if he hammers something out to allow the Yankees to keep the Rangers' money.  Scott Boras has his price and if the Yankees won't meet it, Rodriguez will leave.  It still seems like something gets done before Rodriguez's November 10th opt-out deadline.  Knowing Boras, it will probably be completed on that day.  But not before thousands of words are wasted breaking down every freakin' quote.

Meanwhile, Jorge Posada wants to experience free agency.  Neither he nor Mariano Rivera have had contract talks with the Yankees.  Buster Olney adds that the Yankees will wrap up deals with Rivera and Posada before dealing with Rodriguez.  I can see the Cubs making an offer to Posada this winter.

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"Yanks Done With A-Rod If He Opts Out"

Buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuulllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllshit.

He said if he OPTS OUT. The Yankees essentially lose almost 30 million even if they sign him for the exact same amount of money. Therefore, if the Yankees get him, it will almost certainly be an extension off the the current contract. It makes no sense whatsoever for the Yankees to sign him if he opts out....unless they want to just piss on money...which they are not doing like they used to.

Smart move by the Yankees. Saying that they won't bid as a free agent drives down demand if he opts-out, making it more likely he'll sign an extension.

I'm still shocked and actually really pissed off that the possbility of him being traded has not even been mentioned.

If he's traded pre-November 10th, the acquiring team gets the $30M Texas subsidy too. So if he can't come to an agreement with the Yankees or if both sides just decide they don't want him, it's easy:

Cashman calls up Bill Stoneman and says "ARod wants to play for you. He'll sign an extension with you and if we trade him to you now you get to keep $30M from Texas. Give us some prospects in return."

If arod was going to be traded, I would figure he would just opt out and go where he wants, it would be much more simple (for him) to just opt out then to try to compensate the yankees on the way out by working out an extension and then working out the terms of the trade, why wouldnt he just go sign there as a free agent?

And for that matter, if I am Bill Stoneman, and Cashman calls me up and says Arod wants out im trying to trade him, I am hanging up and signing him as a free agent, not giving up top prospects for him.

Well, if you're Stoneman, then you're going to pay more money because you're not getting $30M from Texas. It's a matter of what that $30M is worth to you. A couple prospects at least, I assume.

If you're ARod, you want to be traded, because the fact that your new team is getting $30M from Texas is going to let them pay you more than you would get as a FA.

Nobody, with the exception of Texas, has anything to gain at all by ARod opting out. In fact, if he opts out, everyone (except Texas) loses.

I believe the Texas commitment is closer to $60 million than $30 million as the original contract was reworked to contain $36 million in deferred payments over its life.

If true, that amount of green should become the focal point of any Boras strategy.

"I can see the Cubs making an offer to Posada this winter."

You do know that the Cubs have an additional 17 million in backloaded contracts next season and a free agent to be ace pitcher who could get Barry Zito money if he wants to right? Asking them to sign a 36 year old catcher who will probably command 10 mil/year for atleast 2, possible 3 years may be a bit foolish. But then again it does sound like a move the Cubs would do.


"Smart move by the Yankees. Saying that they won't bid as a free agent drives down demand if he opts-out, making it more likely he'll sign an extension."

See. This is a yankee fan talking. You think if the yankees decide to not pursue Arod via FA that his demand will go down? Quite a few teams out there with the money and the desire to sign Arod. The yankees not being interested means nothing to them. And it certainly wont drive his price down. We are talking about Boras and Arod

Of course it will. The Yankees are one of a few teams, if not the only team, that can feasibly pay him $30 million per year. Without the Yankees in the mix, his demand goes down significantly, as teams know they won't have to pony up as much money to sign him. Also, as you said, we are talking about Boras. If you listened to Boras, he would tell you that the Yankees were pursuing every single one of his free agents. If the Yankees come out publicly and say they aren't, there goes Boras' favorite bargaining chip.

"Of course it will. The Yankees are one of a few teams, if not the only team, that can feasibly pay him $30 million per year."

Every team in baseball could feasibly pay him $30 million per year.

Likely thats a different story. But that list still includes Both LA's, Both Chicago teams, Boston, San Francisco, Texas, the Mets.

The Yankees do not need to be involved for a free agent to get paid a ridiculous amount of money.

This is all marketing.

There is zero chance Arod leaves the Yankees.

Since he's been here, Arod has been a lightning rod of attention.

News about Arod creates a HGUE spike in news paper sales.....tv ads....ticket sales....

The Yankees are the jewel of MLB and Arod is its most marketable player.

Relatively articulate and intelligent, good looking, extremely fit, UNBELIEVALBE talent.

The yankees have a TV station to support and a new stadium coming.

Arod is worth more as a Yankee and the yankees are worth a LOT more with Arod.

New Yorkers LOVE star power and we LOVE baseball.

Arod is the best guy to handle all of that.

Think back to all the glitzy Yankees.

Arod is the shining star in baseball and will approach the HR record right around the time the new Yankee stadium is built.

Its a match made in heaven.

30+ million per year and worth every penny.

The new Yankee stadium opens in 2009. In order to be near Aaron's home run record at that time (let alone Bonds'), he is going to need to hit 260 home runs in the next season and a half. Personally, I don't think he can average 173 home runs per season, but hey, that's just me.

The Yankees start oou I believe with 27 next year and{with escalators the next 2 years}32 and 32.AddingThe Yankees have effectively taken themselves out of Boras bidding war.Either he signs with the Yankees pre-Opt Out or he doesnt at all.Since there is a 30 million dollar subsidy here its easy to see why....its not a bluff or a blustery ultimatum its just good buisness sense.It should be easy to see if Alex wants to stay or not based on the process of negotiations. 3/90-100 or 4/115 isnt out of the question.If Boras gets greedy and goes for 40 per hes going to lose the Yankees.

The Yankees would be idiots to let ARod go when they're getting my Rangers and our idiotic owner Tom Hicks to pay 40% of his contract.

More here:
http://rangersorrobbers.wordpress.com/2007/07/13/alex-rodriguez-contract-extension-and-tom-hicks-contribution-to-the-yankees-future/

The new Yankee stadium opens in 2009. In order to be near Aaron's home run record at that time (let alone Bonds'), he is going to need to hit 260 home runs in the next season and a half. Personally, I don't think he can average 173 home runs per season, but hey, that's just me.

achilles,

I know ur excited cuz u had a chance to show us you know both subtraction and division in a single post, but to clarify....

"Approach" means he's going to be continuing his incredible pace towards breaking the record.

It's even better with at least a few years of projection when the stadium opens.

Ticket sales will be even higher cuz people will feel even more confident that they're watching the future HR king.

"Personally, I don't think he can average 173 home runs per season, but hey, that's just me"

Priceless.

Posada's not going anywhere. He said he wants to see what it's like to be a free agent, but that his preference is to be a Yankee as long as they want him. They need him. They haven't even had a good backup catcher since me, so they can't afford to lose a great everyday catcher.

He's so far away that it is a non factor at this point. As much as a non factor as it would be to say that Pujols was approaching 500 home runs around the time the new Busch Stadium opened. The numbers are actually pretty close - I'll leave the subtraction to you this time, but I'm confident you can do it.

approach would seem to me to equal within a season's worth of tying it....which he is nowhere near and won't be in a season in a half.

Being around 150 away from even Aaron doesn't seem to me to have approached it.

Zero chance A-Rod leaves the Yankees? That's a silly thing to say. Zero chance would mean an extension was already signed.

Yankee's will probably keep Arod. He's by far their best player and the only player that earns his money on a team filled with overpaid players (Clemens, Mussina, Farnsworth, Damon).

If he opts out and the Yankees don't resign him I could see the Giants forking over money for him. With Bonds on his way out, they'll need a new star. Then I bet the Yankees get Crede from the Whitesox, if he's healthy.

Some of the Yankee fans here are blind to reality.

Opting out of the contract is 100% Alex Rodriguez's decision. It doesn't matter what the Yankees want him to do.

Even IF the Yankees offer him a boat load of money, it has been Boras' modus operandi to get more than one offer. Which would necessitate opting out of the contract.

It's about THE MONEY. The only way to get what Alex and Boras think he deserves is to enter a free and open market. He can't speak to other teams about a contract IF he still has one with the Yankees. Common sense says he opts out.

So stop with the "zero chance" and "no way" stuff unless you are Alex Rodriguez himself. You have totally blinded reason with your NYY bias.

If they don't extend Arod and he opts out, the Yankees most certainly will not be signing Crede. Hell, they'd probably rather take Lowell over Crede anyway. They will most likely get a one year stopgap, and then push like crazy for Miguel Cabrera if and when he becomes a free agent.

It has been Boras' mode of operating when there hasn't been a $30M subsidy from another team on the table.

I think there's a decent chance he leaves the Yankees. But if he does, it almost certainly will be via trade, not by opting out. The Yankees and Boras are both too smart to let him opt out.

Personally, my money is on a 4 year, $130M extension.

And no, Boras can't speak to other teams. But Cashman will be, and it would be pretty easy for him to figure out if a prospective trading partner is willing to pay what ARod is asking for.

Then they make the trade, with a negotiating window, and the trade is contingent on an extension being worked out.

ARod will get more money if he does not opt-out. Period.

Looks like Ichiro extended: $90 million, 5 years

...and is A-Rod worth just draft picks if he opts out?

http://www.skinnymoose.com/thebaseballguy

there is no way Arod is getting over 30 mil a season, the only team that can afford that except maybe the red sox is the Yankee's. If some team does sign him for the money it will be the same issue the rangers had, they can't compete because they can't afford to keep other players or sign players for other needs.

Bobo,
A) Trading Alex Rodriguez is a 100% positive way of not retaining his services for the future. Further it would be defacto giving up this year. I'd say the odds of that happening are very long indeed.

B) Why do you think Boras and Rodriguez care where the money comes from??? Texas, Russia, Antarctica wherever. The only thing that matters is that Alex gets paid what they think he deserves. Texas' 'subsidy' is only of relevance to George Steinbrenner.
C) The point of opting out is to determine Alex's fair market value. Which means that once he opts out he is a free agent and CAN have Boras speak to other teams. Kind of the sole reason to opt out of the contract.

A) I only said a trade would be possible once they decide ARod is not a match for NY - either because of money or other reasons. I mean after the season is over, not during it.

B and C) You are entirely missing the point of the Texas money. Any team, the Yankees or any team they could potentially trade him to cares about it, because getting that money will let them pay ARod more.

Let's take a simple example (and really, I swear I must already written this 15 times but somehow people just don't get it).

Assume his market value is $30M a year, for 7 years. ARod signs a 4 year, $137M extension. Whether it's with the Yankees or someone else (who they trade him to) doesn't matter. He is making now $224 over 7 years, or $32M per year. But his team is only paying $194 of that, or about $27M per season. So the team is paying LESS than market value, and ARod is getting MORE.

See how this is good for everyone involved? Furthermore, a team would presumably trade for him, because then they get the $30M from Texas. Everyone wins.

The Texas subsidy is relevant to EVERYONE.

Yes, he can opt out and assess his market value. But it's highly unlikely that he'll get more on the open market as a free agent than he would from a team that already has $30M in their pockets from Texas.

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