Zambrano Expects To Stay With Cubs

Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune has some quotes up today from Carlos Zambrano, and they strongly indicate he'll sign a contract extension to stay with the Cubs once the season ends.  Specifically, he said there's a "90% chance" he re-signs.  Negotiations may not have re-opened, but Z is certainly positive about the situation.  The Cubs are likely to pay extra for waiting.

Signing Zambrano might put the Cubs in a position to enter 2008 with the exact same rotation they have now - Zambrano, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, and Sean Marshall.  That group will almost certainly regress from where it is now, but it still looks like a better than average staff to me.

Time to put on my fan cap and speculate about some moves I'd like to see for 2008 (if you hate this sort of thing, just stop reading.  No complaints about too much Cubs stuff.) 

• For the catching situation, I'd just turn it over to Geovany Soto and Henry Blanco.  They should be acceptable.
• I'd like to see a third of the Iowa Cubs promoted for '08.  Bring up the DP combination of Eric Patterson and Ronny Cedeno, and give Felix Pie a legitimate full-time shot at CF.  These kids are all hitting well at Triple A.  Can you imagine a Cubs lineup with four of eight position players homegrown?
• No more patchwork stuff in right field.  Go out and spend some money on the best right fielder available - Kosuke Fukudome.  It would be fun to see the Cubs garner Japanese attention.  Even at $14-15MM a year, I'd throw it down.  This will compensate if a few of the kids falter.
• I don't have a great solution for Matt Murton.  Trade him for a respectable reliever if possible, or just use him as the fourth outfielder.  Projecting him as more than that may have been wishcasting anyway.  Similar situation with Mike Fontenot.
• Mark DeRosa and Ryan Theriot are solid guys but they're on my bench. 
• Nontender Scott Eyre and Jacque Jones, eat the salaries and be done with it.
• Keep Ryan Dempster in the pen but use Carlos Marmol as the closer.  Mix and match with kids and vets, same as this year.  Don't spend big bucks on free agent relievers.  Dempster could slide into the fifth starter role if the pen is a strength and Marquis bombs.
• Another $3.6MM on Mark Prior on the chance he can outpitch Marquis?  Sure.  Wouldn't be opposed to bringing in a Freddy Garcia/Jon Lieber/Kenny Rogers if the price is right. You can never have too much pitching.

Comments

[thecubsdontcatchtheball]

I like some of your ideas. The patch work RF is a must fix, I agree. Matt Murton is one of my favorite players, but he doesn't have value with Soriano in left.

Eric Patterson looks to be the real deal, and the future 2B for the Cubs. Promote him in '08, see what he can do.

Ronny is, well, Ronny. Very big temper, very big potential. I really like Theriot at short, and he's just a gamer. Ronny isn't.

DeRosa...lets just say nobody in Chicago expected this. The production has been great, the defense has been very solid, and he can play all over the field. It's hard not to put these guys in the lineup right now. Fontenot is tailing off, coming back down to earth, and I would like to see him as the extra IF.

Maybe deal Fontenot or DeRosa or Murton or Pagan for a solid reliever. The pen could be VERY good in 2008.

But even if we don't get a big RF, we can make do with what we have. Especially when you have Ramirez, Lee, Soriano.

[tsizzle]

The Cubs new ownership seems like they're against spending a ton of money. So unless the Cubs win the World Series, I doubt they shell out the money for Zambrano, or go after Fukudome. I think you're dreaming.

[Tim Dierkes]

Umm...we don't yet know who will own the Cubs in 2008 so I'm not sure where you're coming from.

[spieldogg]

So your plan is this?

c-soto-.4
1b-Lee-13
2b-patterson-.4
ss-cedeno.4
3b-A-ram-14
lf-Soriano-13
cf-Pie-.4
rf-Fukudome---(14.5)

Bench
Blanco-2.8
Derosa-4.75
Theriot-.4
Murton-.4

starters
Zambrano-(17)
Hill-.4
Lilly-7
Marquis-6.4
Marshal-
(Garcia/Lieber/Rogers)-(8)
Prior-3.5

bullpen/ other pitchers under ML contracts
Marmol-.4
Dempster-5
Howry-4
Ohman-1.6
Cotts-.8
Wurtz-.4
Guzman-.4
Mateo-.4
Samardzija-2

Release
Jones-5
Eyre-3.8

that's 130.95
2007 opening day payroll was 99.67

I think even Mark Cuban would bawk at an addition 31 million in payroll. Maybe they could get a little bit of a discount in Zanbrano, but no way does he take less than 15 a year. Also you said maybe a vet pitcher so you could take that 8 mil away. But I still can not see them adding 20+ million in payroll to a team that will have an unproven rightfielder and rookies at 5/8 starting spots and at closer. Thier biggest problem is giving backloaded contracts, there is an additional 17 million on the books next year before adding anyone. A-Ram/Soriano alone will make 10 mil more than they are this season.

[Tim Dierkes]

Good point, looks like they would have to forget about buying that last starter. Though Cuban wouldn't balk at that stuff and a playoff appearance would justify 120.

[touchmymonkey]

I'm not a big fan of cedeno and would prefer not to rush patterson so I think that DP combo is still a year off. I like Derosa as an everyday player so leave him at 2b or whereever someone needs to be rested. I would rather look into getting Rios than signing the japenese Rf'er - what would he cost us?

[Tim Dierkes]

I would also backload the Fukudome contract, which could probably put you in at 110 for next year.

I have heard that Fukudome would make 12-14 mil, but it's really an open question because everyone was off the mark on Matsuzaka.

Rios would cost a ton of talent, I dunno.

[astrosfan]

I'll be interested to see if Carlos' situation changes if we get to November with no ownership resolution (Mark Cuban fans, keep dreaming) and the big clubs start offering him really big money.

[touchmymonkey]

Would Pagan, Marshall, Dempster and Soto get us Rios? Jays could put Dempster in rotation so in effect they get 2 starters a decent of and a C prospect. We won't miss Soto since we will be going with blanco/hill - dempster will probably be a setup guy to marmol next year which we can get thru free agnecy and i would prefer giving up murton to pagan they do need to get an OF'er back. Cubs giving up too much? not enough? wrong parts?

[registereduser]

"Though Cuban wouldn't balk at that stuff and a playoff appearance would justify 120."

The Mavs owner 's opinion of the payroll is not important.

[Teetz]

Don't forget that Fukodome won't require a posting fee. This is unprecedented territory for a Japanese player to come sans posting fees. I can see the bidding getting out of control, but I do think 15 mil a year is the just about right.

[Tim Dierkes]

You could also backload the Zambrano contract (yes, you'd be further screwing yourself in the future, but oh well). But a smart GM with a reasonable owner, Cuban or not, could get the Cubs payroll to the right level. Maybe trade off Dempster or something.

[Bleacher_Buddha]

Why sign Fukudome? Pagan/Pie/Murton/Soriano is just fine. We don't need Rogers/Garcia/Lieber. When you have Prior/Marmol/Dempster as replacement pitchers. Just get it done with Zambrano.

I say you pay a good portion of Jones contract. And trade him for a bag of chips. Someone will pay a small portion of his salary for a left-handed bat and solid fielding. Shoot even the Twins would pay 1 mil for him. He is a huge upgrade to Rondell White.

Don't count on Cuban. MLB most likely wont approve of him.

I honestly don't think a lot needs to be done to this team. If Pie can become the true leadoff guy there is enough to work with in place. Just resign Big Z and see what shakes loose. Oh and be prepared to give Marquis time off over the summer. Miss an occasional start now and again during the dog days. Bring up some folks from the Farm and give them a shot for spot starts. He is ok as long as he doesn't pitch more than 160 innings and this gives the kids a chance to showcase.

I say you do what you have to do to shore up the pen this year. But dont sell the farm for a rent-a-Boras Client. (Gagne) And go for broke. They are playing pretty good ball right now. So why the hell not roast the goat? Next year is now!

[touchmymonkey]

Buddha - it would be wise to give marshall and hill the occasional missed start as well. Last thing we need to to have exhausted Hill, Marshall and Marquis going into sept race. I'm not a huge Dempster fan so I wouldn't mind a gamble - say Dempster/Jones for Gagne/Lofton ( although wilkerson would work too -if he is in last yr of contract)

[Aduncaroo]

I think E Patterson has shown about all he needs to...this guy needs to be the everyday 2nd basemen next year...he is 24, isn't he? He is ready!

Oh, and Pie will NEVER be a leadoff hitter. Just because he is fast doesn't mean he should lead off...

[Cynic81]

* Soto needs to prove he can hit in the bigs before we determine he can share the starting spot with Blanco. We have a decent collection of players who aren't one-sided (i.e. Izturis).

*I agree with giving Pie the CF spot, but there is the same problem with Pie as there is with Cedeno, and possibly Patterson. Just because you're kicking ass in Triple A doesn't mean it will continue in the Bigs. Cedeno has always hit well in AAA, but there is a reason he's not already starting, he hit .097 in the 16 games he played (even our current catchers are doing better). How many trips did it take for Rich Hill to finally stick?

*We should definitely trade Murton, just so he can get a decent shot at a starting job in LF with another team. But I don't think we'll be seeing $15m a year thrown into right. It will likely be another $6-7m guy like Jones, but hopefully with more consistent results. But I'm voting we give Fontenot until the end of the season before we decide to deal him. If he keeps up this offensive spree, it would be stupid to deal him.

* As far as pitching goes, and maybe I'm just sick of the situation, but I say we stop paying millions of dollars to watch pitchers rehab. Let's see how Wood is doing in August/September and let him strike out the side from the pen. We need to let Prior go and let someone else dump $3m into his constant rehab. And yes, he did piss me off when he asked for a raise after his injury-ridden '06 effort. Seriously, who goes 1 and 6 with an ERA over 7 and thinks he deserves more money? I think his problem is that he is too confident in his stuff despite the fact that his arm is already torn up.

[Aduncaroo]

"We have a decent collection of players who aren't one-sided (i.e. Izturis)."

I'm confused...did you mean ARE one sided?

Here is the thing...Soto is at least as good a defender as Hill. His numbers in AAA suggest he has more offensive upside than Hill has ever had....so whats the risk in dropping hill and giving it to Soto?

[integr96]

This is out there, but are there any orioles fans that know if bedard would be available at the deadline? With ex Cub CEO Andy Macphail now being with Baltimore I was wondering if they could hook up for this deal? That way even if Zambrano were to leave, they would have Bedard as an ace for next season.

Now that I have said that, I would like to see the lineup below for next year.

LF SORIANO 13M
CF PAGAN .4M
1B LEE 13M
3B RAMIREZ 14M
RF BYRNES 8M
2B FONTENOT .4M
SS THERIOT .4M
C BLANCO 2.8M

P ZAMBRANO 18M
P LILLY 7M
P MARQUIS 6.4
P HILL .4M
P GALLAGHER .4M

RP DEMPSTER 5.5M
RP MARMOL .4M
RP HOWRY 4M
RP PETRICK .4M
RP LINEBRINK 4M
RP OHMAN 1.6M
RP MARSHALL .4M

B WARD 1.2M
B FLOYD 4M
B DEROSA 4.75M
B PIE .4M
B SOTO .4M

Above comes out to $111M. I left out EYRE, JONES, IZTURIS, PRIOR AND WOOD. And I have PAGAN AND PIE platooning in center. It should also be mentioned that Floyd can opt out if he chooses to do so. And if PRIOR OR WOOD could supply anything, that is a bonus. I would probably go ahead and resign WADE MILLER as an extra security measure as well. He would only cost 4M and if Galagher has problems you could bring MILLER in. And if MILLER has trouble, you have MARSHALL as the long man in your bullpen so you can bring him into the rotation. Thoughts?? After watching the Cardinals stand pat this past year, you know you cannot just stand still and think you can do it again with the exact same linup.

[Aduncaroo]

I agree about the Cardinals...they are getting what they deserved by keeping all of that money and standing pat.

I don't think Wade Miller will ever do anything again...a guy with an 85mph fastball is just not going to do anything...

[Aduncaroo]

Hey...being that the Sox need to throw in the white flag...does anyone think that a deal like this would work?

Dye for Murton\young pitcher...maybe Mateo? They need a replacement in the outfield and young, cheap bullpen help badly. Am I being way too biased here? Maybe Veal instead of Mateo?

[davearm]

What I'd like to know is, how on earth is Fukudome going to command $15M per year? That sounds kinda on the insane side to me.

Now the posting thing makes a difference of course, but Fukudome looks a bit like the OF version of Akinori Iwamura from last offseason. Iwamura hits for less power, but plays better D and is a couple years younger.

Iwamura's pricetag ended up being around $12M *total* for 3 years: $4.5M in posting fee, and $7.7M in salary.

If Iwamura's actual value was in the $12-$15M/yr range, then why didn't some team bid like $30M for the rights to sign him for 3/$7.7M?

[WHIPit]

UGHHH...

Too much Cubs crap.

[nrmax88]

Lol. Rios is going to cost a TON. He is vernon wells, basically. He can play centerfield, bat 1,2,3,4,5,6 and produce, steal 25 bags, hit 25 home runs, bat 290, maybe .300, cannon for an arm, great defense. Same thing with Bedard. Why would the orioles trade possibly the second best left handed starter in baseball for.... well, anything, really? He is a strikeout machine, young, cheap, and an absolute ace on a team that needs pitching. Not going to happen. When Rios was available during the offseason people were saying , oh well he was a fluke and he had 1 good season, now he is blossoming into a superstar, and it is basically too late to try to acquire him now, sort of like Dan Haren. His price would have been high in the offseason, but now he has to be close to untouchable. Cubs dont really need to do anything besides resign Zambrano, and wait. Maybe add 1 big left handed bat to hit between Lee and A-Ram. Then just wait for Pie and Patterson and this team will be sick. I still dont think their year is this year, but who knows, if they make the playoffs anything can happen, although I still like the crew in the central, but the cubs and brewers should be battling for the top of the central for the next 5 years, with the cards and astros going nowhere fast. I also dont think the reds are that far off either, they just need to sure up the pen and add one more starter. Nice groundballer like Westbrook or somebody similar. Harang, Arroyo, Westbrook, Bailey would be a good 4 pitchers, and we know they can mash. I would keep Dunn and Griffey around, sign Hamilton and Phillips through their arb years, start drafting college relief pitchers that can come up quickly and add 1 more decent starter, and sign a big time closer. Still though, they probably wont do any of that and if the cubs keep big Z there is no reason why they wont compete for the next 6 years or so.

[integr96]

i only mention bedard because he has publicly said that he wants to go back to canada if that is an option when he hits free agency (after next season). if the orioles can go ahead and get 1 or 2 prospects for him... isnt that in their best interest since the orioles arent really going anywhere for a year or two anyway. lets say bedard plays out 2008 and then walks. they will get 2 draft picks and then have to wait for them to get through the minors. so by the time those prospects have any payoff, it is probably 2011. if they trade bedard now, the prospects could start providing in 2009. and if they trade off tejada as well, you could have 4 top prospects all ready at the same time, on top of the prospects you already have that are coming up through your own system. (i.e. Wieters if they sign him)

[Aduncaroo]

WHIPit,

ITS A CUBS POST! Why the hell would you read it if you aren't interested in "Cubs crap"? Does someone have a gun to your head making you read it or something?? Complaining about cubs crap in a Cubs post makes no sense.