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« Could Bonds Join Royals, Devil Rays? | Main | The Andruw Jones Situation »
I've been getting a lot of emails about Edgar Renteria. Let's take a look at the situation.
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In my opinion, the Braves need to import one solid, dependable starting pitcher. Free agency presents plenty of options - a few dependable, most not: Matt Clement, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Randy Wolf, Jaret Wright, Jason Jennings, Koji Uehara, Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine.
Same deal with trade options: Carl Pavano, Jose Contreras, Kei Igawa, Matt Morris, Jon Garland, Bronson Arroyo, Nate Robertson, maybe Joe Blanton.
Back to Renteria - can we find a match? The White Sox, Tigers, and A's might want to import a shortstop (though Renteria for Blanton wouldn't fly with Oakland). Indeed, the first two connections have already surfaced in print. The Braves offered Renteria and a top pitching prospect to the White Sox for Garland and were denied. And more recently, John Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press connected Renteria with the Tigers for multiple reasons.
I like a Robertson for Renteria swap. The Braves get two below-market price years of Robertson, who could be quite solid in the NL and is only 30 years old. Renteria meanwhile is signed cheaply for $9MM in '08 with an $11MM club option ($3MM buyout) for '09. Better yet, the Red Sox are chipping in towards next year's salary and would cover the buyout. Everybody wins and even Carlos Guillen is happy.
The Braves would then move Yunel Escobar to shortstop and play Kelly Johnson every day at second base. That's not much of a loss and Robertson would really solidify the staff if healthy. You may recall Keith Law opining in July that Escobar did have the glove to play short and could be a respectable hitter.
The Blue Jays, Royals, A's, Cubs, Astros, Cardinals, and Giants may also be in the market for a shortstop. Shaun Marcum, Joe Blanton, Wandy Rodriguez, Anthony Reyes, Sean Marshall, and Noah Lowry could conceivably be available from those clubs. Marcum's a long shot and as I said above I don't see Renteria for Blanton happening.
Anyone have any other reasonable trade scenarios for Renteria?
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Maybe something between Toronto and Atlanta can be worked out. AJ Burnett maybe?
Posted by: kgbaseball | September 25, 2007 at 01:48 PM
How about the Marlins with Scott Olsen? Hanley could move to CF.
If Renteria could handle 2B, the Rockies could offer up Aaron Cook.
With that said, I really like the match up that Renteria & Lowry provide.
Posted by: WestCoastBias | September 25, 2007 at 01:49 PM
As I stated in the Cards needs and Luxury thread, it's insane to keep tossing them into all these rumors Tim. Ownership is only going to increase the payroll 5-8 million for next season and a good chunk of that goes for a SP.
Posted by: ozziethesaint | September 25, 2007 at 01:50 PM
I like the idea of Sean Marshall for Renteria, but if the Cubs added a Kevin Hart, or Angel Guzman, or a decent INF like Cedeno, could we get a pitcher in return? The Cubs need another starter more than anything right now, particularly a RHP.
Posted by: childersb | September 25, 2007 at 01:55 PM
No way Marshall by himself snags Renteria.
Posted by: Teetz | September 25, 2007 at 02:02 PM
Its not worth trading him for Robertson. They could get something better
Posted by: themfightnwords | September 25, 2007 at 02:12 PM
Agreed. This is the second year in a row Marshall has not finished the season in the rotation. Last year because of injury, this year because of bad performance. JS is very good at evaluating other teams' arms, and no way Marshall is enuff for Renteria.
Posted by: forlife61 | September 25, 2007 at 02:13 PM
"Its not worth trading him for Robertson. They could get something better"
I feel that way about Lowry. Since when is a pitcher having pretty much his career year to this point, has a whip of over 1.50, a career whip of 1.39, a strikeout to walk ratio in 2007 of exactly 1/1, worth a shortstop with a pretty good gloved shortstop that is going to hit .300 for you. Lowry walks to many, doesnt strike out many, and gives up a hit per inning. I dont get what is so special about him.
Posted by: nrmax88 | September 25, 2007 at 02:20 PM
* Whoops didnt mean to write shortstop in there twice.
Posted by: nrmax88 | September 25, 2007 at 02:21 PM
The Blue Jays don't have the money for Renteria and they signed John McDonald to that moronic contract to be the starting shortstop.
Lowry for Renteria makes sense. Well, for the Braves. The Giants should rebuild.
Posted by: andagh | September 25, 2007 at 02:21 PM
I still think the braves best option is to keep renteria, put kelly johnson in center(hes logged about as many games in the outfield as at 2b - although it sucks for him to be moved again) put escobar at second and address pitching via free agency. Any of these trade possibilities seem like the braves aren't getting enough in return or are giving up too much. When healthy - renteria was the braves best and most clutch hitter along with chipper - and transitions the order very nicely from kelly johnson at leadoff to chipper and tex at 3/4.
Posted by: jayl | September 25, 2007 at 02:49 PM
Braves get-
Anthony Reyes
Brad Thompson
Cards #1 minor league 1b prospect (Teix Insurance)
Cards get-
Edgar Renteria
Posted by: registereduser | September 25, 2007 at 02:52 PM
I think edgar might have a shot going down to tampa...I think he could be had for a high risk/reward Baldelli, prospects, and cash. lots of cash. Were definetly in the need of a SS down here with Iwamura going to 2B and Longoria expecting to start the season at third in 08. what do you guys think?
Posted by: Bryan | September 25, 2007 at 03:11 PM
Kelly cannot play any of the outfield positions anymore. So quit coming up with the "Kelly moves to center" idea....
Posted by: RSorianofan89 | September 25, 2007 at 03:12 PM
It would be too ironic if the Cardinals got Renteria back to replace the guy who replaced him. Renteria did leave St. Louis for money, and was lowballed by the organization, so there might be a bad taste in his mouth about going back. I think Reyes could really thrive in Atlanta, though. And maybe Mark Hamilton just needs a change of scenery, but I wouldn't bet on him as "insurance" if Teixeira leaves.
Posted by: mateodh | September 25, 2007 at 03:14 PM
With the great depth of middle infielders the braves have if they packaged Kelly Johnson along with Renteria they might be able to get another ace. What about KJ and Renteria for Matt Cain. Or the Braves could add Chuck James to the package and see if they could sway away Roy Oswalt from the Astros. Think about it, Escobar is set to take over SS fulltime. Martin Prado led the international league in hitting this year and is an outstanding 2b defensively so he could play 2b. The Braves also have Brent Lillibridge, who by all indications is going to be a star in the big leagues at either ss or 2b. My point is that as good as Renteria and Kelly Johnson are, they are expendable and good get a very good pitcher in return
Posted by: wildmike | September 25, 2007 at 03:15 PM
There's no way the Astros give up Oswalt for Kelly Johnson, Chuck James, and Edgar Renteria. I think Wandy Rodriguez for Renteria is a lot more reasonable--the Braves get a cheap, talented lefty with upside who they'd control for another three years, and the Astros get proven SS who can hit more than .230 and plays good defense.
Posted by: Russe | September 25, 2007 at 03:33 PM
None of you that are suggesting Renteria to the Cards must be Cardinal fans. Otherwise you'd know by now the Cards can't afford Renteria
Posted by: ozziethesaint | September 25, 2007 at 03:34 PM
" This is the second year in a row Marshall has not finished the season in the rotation. Last year because of injury, this year because of bad performance."
Yeah, a 4.00 era from your #5 stater is unacceptable. Afterall...if, after 43 careers starts, a 24 year old doesn't have it all figured out you need to move on.
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | September 25, 2007 at 03:34 PM
"What about KJ and Renteria for Matt Cain."
wtf. are you kidding me? that is one trade that is not happening. the giants are not going to get rid of two potential aces (the first being francisco liriano) in this decade. they made too many bad trades. trading matt cain will not help.
Posted by: dsty1e | September 25, 2007 at 03:37 PM
Braves- Sean Marshall
Cubs- Renteria and Villareal
or
Braves- Noah Lowry
Giants- Renteria or Escobar, Van Pope, and Prado
or
Braves- Ian Snell
Pirates- Escobar, Reyes, and Boyer
or
Braves- Joe Blanton
A's- Escobar, Eric Campbell, Reyes, Prado
Posted by: dandrewilliams23 | September 25, 2007 at 03:38 PM
I cant see the Giants trading Cain or Lowry for Renteria, maybe Yunel but not Edgar, they arnt that close to winning, and want to get younger not older.
Posted by: WHITESOX | September 25, 2007 at 03:41 PM
"What about KJ and Renteria for Matt Cain. Or the Braves could add Chuck James to the package and see if they could sway away Roy Oswalt from the Astros"
...although I am not proclaiming him an ace or anything by any means, I wanted to ask if you realize that James in only his 2nd year has put up numbers that are good for the SP2 spot on most teams? KJ + Renteria + James for Oswalt would be horrendous disaster as the braves would A) be taking on money, B) lose their starting 2nd and SS and C) be including a 2nd year pitcher who has followed up an impressive rookie season perfectly…
“Production for Cost” wise James has been an arguably better sure-thing than Oswalt himself…
________
“The Braves offered Renteria and a top pitching prospect to the White Sox for Garland and were denied”
…Wonder what the Sox would have to add to sweaten that deal at this point...
~ 1.5YR of pitcher currently holding 2.8ishERA while youre in a playoff push ~ Worth ERent + PitchPros
~ 1YR rental of a 12M LgAvg pitcher ~ not even worth ERent alone…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | September 25, 2007 at 03:42 PM
"As I stated in the Cards needs and Luxury thread..."
It's right here. AND YOU POSTED IN IT!!!
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/09/needs-and-lux-5.html#comments
Posted by: chicagobubbleblog | September 25, 2007 at 03:45 PM
"Braves- Sean Marshall
Cubs- Renteria and Villareal"
...HAHAHA...
What is up with people being all over Marshalls jock all the time? This guy has had 4 straight years of injury and 3 straight of those has been shoulder problems. Then in both of his years in the majors he has reached his mid-point and absolutly fallen on his face. Why would anyone want to trade anything for that?
Posted by: darkstar1661 | September 25, 2007 at 03:45 PM
"None of you that are suggesting Renteria to the Cards must be Cardinal fans. Otherwise you'd know by now the Cards can't afford Renteria"
Sure they can. With Boston chipping in around $3 million this year, Renteria's contract becomes $6 M for 08.
With David Eckstein's $4.5 coming off the books this season, they just need to cover $1.5 M to afford Renteria.
So they can either try to get the Braves to chip in some cash or use the money from someone else coming off the books like Mike Maroth to pay for Renteria.
Posted by: jza1218 | September 25, 2007 at 03:46 PM
**Renteria did leave St. Louis for money, and was lowballed by the organization, so there might be a bad taste in his mouth about going back.**
Lowballed? The Cardinals offered Renteria 4 y/$36 M. The Red Sox offered him the same length but $1 M more a year. You make it sound like they tried to get him to take a $5 M/year deal.
The Cardinals asked him to defer the money in the contract, which would have (with interest) increased the deal to $39 M when all money exchanged hands.
The Red Sox only deferred the option year that they tacked on at the end of the contract, one they never had any intention of picking up.
As far as ozzie's statements about payroll going up, Joe Strauss commented yesterday that LaRussa's meeting with management next week is supposedly to outline that he will not return to the Cardinals unless payroll goes up.
Renteria is due to make $ 9 M next year, with Boston paying $2.6 M of that. He has a $11 M option for 2009 with a $3 M buyout that is paid for already by Boston.
So, for 'real Cardinals fans' to wrap their minds around the cost, Edgar Renteria costs $6.4 M for next year.
* Jim Edmonds costs $ 3M less in '08.
* David Eckstein's $4.5 M comes off the books.
* Kip Wells $4 M comes off the books.
* Izzy's option goes down $750 k.
* Preston Wilson's $ 1 M.
* Taguchi's $1.1 M
Net gain: $14.25 M
Contracts that go up:
Pujols - $1 M
Carpenter - $2 M
Encarnacion - $1.5 M
Mulder - $1.5 M
Looper - $ 1 M
Kennedy - $ 1 M
Franklin - $1.25 M
Net Loss: $8.25
Without increasing payroll, Renteria is 'doable' even without the Braves taking on any of the contract.
DeWitt will have to increase payroll. Even with a $100 M cap, that is a $10 M increase to go with the $6 M change in current contracts.
Posted by: HL | September 25, 2007 at 03:52 PM
Edgar Renteria for Micah Owings. Diamondbacks are a team no one really talks about when needing a SS. While I like Stephen Drew he just hasn't cut it this year and this would be a win now type of move for the D-Backs.
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | September 25, 2007 at 03:54 PM
"I cant see the Giants trading Cain or Lowry for Renteria, maybe Yunel but not Edgar, they arnt that close to winning, and want to get younger not older."
Since when have the Giants wanted to get younger?
Posted by: andagh | September 25, 2007 at 03:55 PM
I think the Giants would be more interested in acquiring Lillibridge (my pref) or Escobar for Lowry (or another pitcher) than they would Renteria.
Posted by: aGIANTfan | September 25, 2007 at 03:56 PM
Renteria + KJ for Cain?
Renteria + james + kj for oswalt?
hahahahah
this isnt mvp baseball with forced trades
Posted by: GoBoSox420 | September 25, 2007 at 04:01 PM
What about Rich Hill for Renteria? And IF Renteria is NOT enough what could the Braves add to get Hill?
Posted by: braves#1 | September 25, 2007 at 04:09 PM
The Astros won't trade Oswalt for Edgar plus any package the Braves would reasonably offer. The Astros need more pitching, not less. And this would kill the fanbase, who loves Oswalt. So let go of that pipe(dream). If the Braves were interested, the Astros might trade Wandy for Renteria, but I don't know that it would be enough for the Braves. They would probably want to see Wandy's ERA match his K/9 and K/BB before taking that kind of risk.
The Giants are indeed trying to get younger (see trading of Matt Morris and decision not to bring back Bonds). They would be idiots to take on Renteria for an ace. Lowry would make more sense for the Giants, but I think they should be more interested in a prospect (Lillibridge) then a $10 M shortstop.
The Blue Jays (Burnett) might be a good target, since the salaries would help cancel each other. Just don't know how much the Blue Jays gain by giving up Burnett for another RH hitter.
If the D-Backs are smart, they shouldn't be in a win now mode. Almost all their players are young and cheap. They seem more likely to trade hitters (Quentin, Carlos Gonzalez) then to trade for a hitter. Plus, it seems a little premature to give up on Drew.
Posted by: mymrbig | September 25, 2007 at 04:12 PM
HL,
One thing there, They have already said they plan on not using Izzy's option and want to sign him to a new deal, probably 2-3 years so his contract goes up. I wouldn't be so quick to assume they non tender Maroth, at around 3 to 3 1/2 million, he's a cheaper flyer than they took on Wells and very easily might be back to battle for a job in ST. Pineiro's option is a player only option. So he will definitely opt out and cost more. Cards have already said they'd like to have him back. So he's gonna at least be in the 6 range. Don't be so fast to count Taguchi out. If TLR is back without major budget concessions, He's not going to carry 4 LH hitting OF'ers. Ludwick and So would be on the bench and Schumaker would be traded. So there I have spent more than you had them saving. And they still need to bring in a solid #3 starter. So I think we should all just forget about Renteria and just get used to the fact it will be another year of Kennedy, Miles and Ryan for better or worse. Plus they want both Percival and Springer back, so they both will get a raise after the seasons they have had.
Posted by: ozziethesaint | September 25, 2007 at 04:18 PM
I think the braves should explore maybe a trade with minnisota... They need a SS and 2B and have a surplus of starters. I say Escobar, Prado, and Reyes for Matt Garza.
Posted by: jay | September 25, 2007 at 04:19 PM
Well Jay, you are looking in the right place in terms of minnasota, but you get stupid when you completely overvalue garza. The braves would not do escobar for garza. We are attempting to trade renteria because we have a capable backup in escobar, so escobar is more than likely not going anywhere. Now, i like scott baker a ton, and would love a renteria for baker type deal, but that is not happening, the twins have a purty good shortstop in barlett, and probably would not see the producation from bartlett to renteria being worth scott baker.
I see renteria going somewhere for a veteran pitcher, along the lines of a Jon Garland. However, I think the best trade may be for javier vazquez, but i do not see the whitesox setting on just renteria alone. I like rich hill from the cubs, and think that a deal could be struck, but the braves may be giving up too much. Trading Renteria is a move that we want to make in an attempt to a get a better picthcer, but a move that is not just guaranteed, which means we are probably not going to send renteria + our best prospects for a pitcher, we want proven success for proven success, which means we are probably going after a veteran.
With that being said, maybe the tigers can workout. And as an idea, what about robertson and and a young low level and B prospect arm, that way the braves can get a great arm to solidfy the rotation now, while getting young pitching depth and a potential starter in the future. I am by no means talking about Jair Jurrigens or Andrew miller, but perhaps like a Virgil Vasquez or Zah Minor (Who i would love to have back, but am not sure if he or the braves want to reunite after his comments).
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 25, 2007 at 04:47 PM
I agree with the people saying it should be Escobar and not Renteria that gets moved. Yunel's walk rate has been decent but the power and speed just aren't there (.117 isoP, 2 net SBs, minors no better). Most of his 2007 value is derived from his average which is sustained by a .373 BABIP. If that dips (which it should), his line is pretty ugly. Sell high here if you can get a productive pitcher for the back end of the rotation and take a shot in 2008 while you still have Teixiera. Escobar doesn't strike me as the building block type you need to hold onto for the future.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | September 25, 2007 at 04:49 PM
It absolutely kills me to read that maybe the Jays would give Burnett for Renteria. Here's a reality check for all you Americans (because clearly all players playing north of the border receive zero exposure - that's the only thing that can explain many of you knowing next to NOTHING about them) - AJ Burnett has the 8th best ERA amongst starters in the AL on the season, and that's in an injury plagued year. Since the All-Star break (and his latest injury) Burnett leads ALL OF BASEBALL in starters ERA. And he makes an extremely reasonable 11m. There is simply no way the Jays would trade an 11m potential ace for an 11m SS who happens to hit RH (something the Jays desperately do not need) and is coming off his career season (and thus completely overvalued considering he had arguably his worst season ever facing AL East pitching).
Posted by: 92-93 | September 25, 2007 at 04:55 PM
Burnett is always a top pitcher in his 20 starts a year, the problem is he isnt gonna give you 33 starts or 200 inning's. Now Bravesbeat do you really believe the Braves wouldnt trade Yunel for Garza? Garza has great stuff, and has a chance to be one of the best, he was a elite pitching prospect last year and has posted a good 3.72 era, I dont see how Lowery or Cain are that much better than Garza and im sure the Braves would trade Yunel AND a good pitching prospect for Cain or Lowery.
Posted by: WHITESOX | September 25, 2007 at 05:06 PM
Ozzie,
Couple things:
* Mike Maroth will not be back. If he is, you've increased his cost, not decreased it. He isn't going to make MORE money next year after qualifying for the worst ERA in the history the NL.
* I have read nothing about Izzy being extended, and I would think they've learned their lesson with Edmonds as far as signing damaged goods to multi-year extensions. If Izzy's option is declined, he won't be making MORE a year over 2 years. The idea would be to give him more over 2 years but less over each. I HAVE to believe Jocketty learned his lesson with Edmonds.
* If Taguchi comes back, which is doubtful for a 39 year old defensive replacement who is in an already crowded OF, Skip or Ludwick will have to be traded, thus allowing the Cardinals to fill a need elsewhere.
Honestly, your case that the Cardinals have no room payroll wise makes little sense. If Chris Carpenter doesn't make it back until mid-season, they get payroll relief from insurance taken out on his elbow for his contract.
Anthony Reyes will either have a spot in the rotation or be traded. He either fills a need in one spot or brings in something else to fill a need in another.
The Cardinals have prospects in PJ Walters who (if they honestly wanted Mike Maroth back) is a cheaper version with more potential and Bryan Anderson to replace Gary Bennett as the backup catcher ($1 M contract).
To think that they couldn't expand the payroll by $2 M to replace David Eckstein for 1 year just doesn't jive. Short term contracts are what DeWitt is all about. Remember the 3 years/ $42 M after they had already signed Kip Wells? That extra $14 M wasn't spent elsewhere.
Payroll isn't going to jump to $120 M but it is much more flexible than you make it seem.
Posted by: HL | September 25, 2007 at 05:06 PM
That should read 3 year/$42 M offer to Jason Schmidt.
Posted by: HL | September 25, 2007 at 05:09 PM
Yo shut the hell up with your wah wah boohoo the Canadians get no exposure, nobody cares. Tell that to the people trying to tell everyone that Alex Rios IS Vernon Wells last winter (which he is). If players are good, then fans that follow the game will know about them, whether they are from Canada, NY, or China. Go cry somewhere else, its not like people never post silly trade proposals on here. It has nothing at all to do with you being in Canada, so get over it. When some crazy cubbie fans were posting their crazy Jacque Jonez/ Cezar Izturiz/ Ronnie Cedeno for Felix Hernandez proposals last winter, you didnt hear anybody saying " Oh my god these dam east coasters dont follow the Seattle players enough you stupid east coasters." Give me a break. And just for the record, I know that nobody ever proposed a trade that ridiculous, it was just for example purposes.
Posted by: nrmax88 | September 25, 2007 at 05:14 PM
What about AJ Burnett?
Posted by: Derrick | September 25, 2007 at 05:40 PM
Think Braves would take Marquis/Murton for Renteria? Marquis has proven he is an decent #5 with flashes of #3 - 7mil for 2 yrs is cheap for that. Too one sided? for which team?
Posted by: touchmymonkey | September 25, 2007 at 05:52 PM
92-93 I agree that Burnett (when healthy) is a bonafide Ace. But that is exactly the problem, HE'S NEVER HEALTHY ALL YEAR! With that price tag, very few teams want to take the risk that he blows his arm out and is lost for a year (see the Braves with Mike Hampton). He's the definition of high risk/high reward... But, even with that said, I would trade Renteria for Burnett in a heartbeat. This Braves team needs to take a chance NOW while they still have Teixera and a healthy Chipper Jones...
And why does it matter that Renteria is a right handed bat? The problem is not too many righty's in Toronto's lineup, the problem is EVERYONE (with the exception of Rios & Stairs) is having a career-worst year! If Vernon Wells and Frank Thomas were putting up numbers this year like they did last year Toronto would be right there with New York for the wild card... Toronto DESPERATELY NEEDS offense and the Braves DESPERATELY NEED a starter. It is a win-win.
Posted by: DonCoburleone | September 25, 2007 at 06:04 PM
hmmm... i dont think im overvalueing Garza at all. I would consider him among the elite prospects in the game and he would be an ace for years to come. I would gladly give Yunel, who we dont need, Prado, who we dont need, and Reyes, who we dont need... for a future ace. You thing Baker will be better???? you are out of your mind. Garza will be a #1 probably in the next year or two. And much better than Baker, Robertson, or anyone else.
Posted by: jay | September 25, 2007 at 06:07 PM
“Think Braves would take Marquis/Murton for Renteria? Marquis has proven he is an decent #5 with flashes of #3 - 7mil for 2 yrs is cheap for that. Too one sided? for which team?”
…I think similar players to both of those could be signed off the FA market for similar money without having to give up your AS-SS and best trade-bait. Besides, didn’t they already have Marques with less then positive results?
“I agree with the people saying it should be Escobar and not Renteria that gets moved. Yunel's walk rate has been decent but the power and speed just aren't there (.117 isoP, 2 net SBs, minors no better).”
…Problem comes in the fact that Escobar is under control for a longer period of time for a lot less money while still having the possibility of producing similar production to ERent. Then you have to consider that even if Escobar fails there is always Lilli in the pipeline to take his place. Between the two of them you should be able to easily replace Renteria for longer/cheaper making ERent & his Costly/Short contract the expendable one…
“When some crazy cubbie fans were posting their crazy Jacque Jonez/ Cezar Izturiz/ Ronnie Cedeno for Felix Hernandez proposals… …I know that nobody ever proposed a trade that ridiculous, it was just for example purposes.”
…Actually, that is atleast close to as ridiculous as some of the proposals we heard…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | September 25, 2007 at 06:07 PM
I still say the Robertson for Renteria trade is BY FAR the most likely. I just don't see the White Sox really needing Renteria right now. I mean, do they really think they are going to compete for a title in the next 2 years? All Renteria does for the White Sox is add another fading star into a lineup that is FULL of them (Dye, Konerko, Thome)...
Robertson for Renteria is about as even a trade as you can get and will help out both teams who are both ready to win NOW...
Posted by: DonCoburleone | September 25, 2007 at 06:09 PM
You are right about Yunel Escobar's BABIP being extremely high *notJoeMorgan*. But, I would argue his normal BABIP is easily in the .320-.330 range because his % of line drives hit is through the roof (much higher than a normal hitter who's BABIP is at an average of .280 or so).
Posted by: DonCoburleone | September 25, 2007 at 06:13 PM
“Robertson for Renteria is about as even a trade as you can get and will help out both teams who are both ready to win NOW...”
The problem with it comes in this though; the sole reason Det will be sitting at home this Oct is pitching…
Everyone knew (or atleast should have known) that their pitching was well over their head last year, and they are suffering the consequences now of that. Bonderman has looked horrible much of the time, Rogers has shown he shouldn’t be counted on, Miller is young and learning, Jurrjens cant be counted on, Maroth is gone now, Durbin hehehe… Who do they have past Verlander who doesn’t come with big questions? Trading Robertson could be a disaster…He’s not that great but atleast he’s a pretty steady on for a team who might need um.
Besides, who’s to say Nate is even enough to get Renteria? He’s been a 79, 92, 95, 118 & 90 ERA+ guys respectively over the last 5 years ~ that’s consistently below league average and the Braves should be expected to give up their AS-SS and best trading chip for him?
Posted by: darkstar1661 | September 25, 2007 at 06:38 PM
I like tim's thoughts about Renteria for Robertson, but how about the Orioles? If they truly don't think Tejada can handle SS or move him, Renteria could be a fit. Maybe for Daniel Cabrera?
Posted by: rooker72 | September 25, 2007 at 06:49 PM
Cain has way more value than Lowry.
Giants won't trade Cain to ATL. The only team they should consider trading him to should be the Rays - and only then for 2-3 high- ceiling hitters.
Lowry's WHIP and BB/K #s aren't great, but he is very capable at getting hitters to GIDPs. He is definitely worth a young hitter or two in a market so devoid of starting pitching.
Posted by: aGIANTfan | September 25, 2007 at 06:56 PM
What if it was Shawn Marcum or Dustin McGowan instead of AJ Burnett for Edgar Renteria. What about Yunel Escobar for Scott Baker? Are the Braves getting enough back you think? Yunel Escobar, Reyes, and Prado for Joe Blanton?
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | September 25, 2007 at 06:58 PM
Braves- Sean Marshall
Cubs- Renteria and Villareal
or
Braves- Noah Lowry
Giants- Renteria or Escobar, Van Pope, and Prado
or
Braves- Ian Snell
Pirates- Escobar, Reyes, and Boyer
or
Braves- Joe Blanton
A's- Escobar, Eric Campbell, Reyes, Prado"
ha. ha. hahah. hahahahahahhaha. ok les do these one by one.
#1 - I'll make a little comparison here between Sean Marshall and Chuck James. They are both left handers. They are 25 and 26 years of age respectively. They both have bascially been pitching in the majors for 2 years. Marshall's line this year of 7-8, 4.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, a 1.88 K/BB rate, and 2.71 BAA looks strikingly similar to James' 11-10, 4.11 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.92 K/BB rate, and .266 BAA. Hmmmmm. James does give up more homeruns and throws a lot of pitches, but he was better last year than Marshall and is a solid number 4 (for the Braves though he's a 3.) Now, how many of you would do Renteria for Chuck James alone? Probably not as many as Marshall. Why? I don't know. Marshall has much more of an injury past and wears down towards the end of a season. And to throw in a solid long reliever who's also 26 doesn't make senes. Edgar Renteria plays like he's 5 years younger, leads like he's 5 years older, and is one of the best guys in a team's clubhouse. The man can rake and for 6-6.5 mil next year, that's a great bargain. OK. Gotta go about a D+/C- here.
#2 - Noah Lowry is a very solid pitcher. But his numbers from 2005 to now go like this 3.78 ERA- 4.74 ERA-3.92 ERA. Good, but not great. 1.31 WHIP-1.39 WHIP-1.55 WHIP. Makes me a little worried there. 2.26 K/BB- 1.5 K/BB- 1 K/BB. Once again, a downward trend. The K per 9/IP are 7.56- 4.74- 5.02. He's a good pitcher soon to be just 27, but a staff ace? no. A number 2? On a bad team sure. Number 3? Probably maybe even number 4. He has great potential, but Esco or Rent and Pope or Prrado is stretching it. But with Pope and Prado, too, it's a bit much. More doable than the first, but I still say too much. Maybe a C+/B-
#3 - Snell for Yunel, Jo-Jo, and Blain Boyer. Snell is a legit 3 and likely good enough to be a 2 by the time Smoltz retires. He is a killer strikeout guy, he can eat innings, and has pretty good ERA and WHIP numbers. He is not even 26 yet, and has about 2.5 years of solid MLB time. His W/L record can't really be seen very accurately due to being on the Poopy Pirates. His value is likely a little higher than Mike Gonzalez's was last year when the Braves nabbed him and Lillibridge. Yunel is a solid guy and would start at SS for the Bucs. Jo-Jo would likely be the 4th or 5th starter and Blaine Boyer could also be in the back of the rotation. He's been a solid middle relief guy for the Braves in the majors, but has spent most of this year trying to become a starter at the International League Champion Richmond Braves. This is probably the best trade for the Braves of the three. While losing a 22 year-old stud with an awesome name and high potential would be tough, Snell may have as a high a ceiling and he is much closer to reaching it. Boyer isn't regarded as much of a prospect, but he is solid and doesn't try to do too much. I give this one a B+.
#4 - Finally, the Blanton trade. So basically, it's the Snell one with Campbell added in. Okay. Blanton is even more of an innings guy, he doesn't walk many, and he's gotta good ratios all around. Still though, why a career ERA over 4? And why is he not really better now than he was two years ago at 24 in his first season in the bigs? Personally, I'd have Snell over Blanton the slob. Snell can field pretty well (0 career errors), while Blanton (5 careeer errors in just a little more game) is not anything special. So adding in possibly the heir to Chipper for a guy on the same kind of level as Snell seems a little out there to me. Now granted, this is my first post on MLBTR, and no one really can trust my opinion, I know the Braves guys very well and know they're value. Probably a B+ like Snell except for the Campbell part so I say a B-.
Overall, I'm being a little harsh on the guy who made these trades up liekly off the top of his head, but I'm just trying to make a point here that some people really underestimate and overestimate people's values before they look at the facts and actually see the guys play a lot.
Whew. my hand hurts
Posted by: dorseyfurcal | September 25, 2007 at 06:59 PM
jay,
When I say that you are completely overvaluling garza, i am telling you that the braves are not going to trade three young players away for the incosistiency of garza. Garza may be good, but the reason that I wanted Baker is because he is more reasonable to get. If garza is so good, then tell me how the braves have the prospects to get him? No, trust me we do not have the quality to get it. You have to understand that trading renteria would be a win now move, to get a win now pitcher. And then, since we traded renteria, it is because we have a high value for escobar, so we are not going to trade him. So, i do not dispute that garza more than likely has a bright future, but i do dispute the braves would give up escobar to get him, and even further more that the twins would want to trade garza. The renteria/baker swap is much more reasonable.
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 25, 2007 at 07:25 PM
Have a look at Dustin McGowan's #s, both for the season and especially post the All Star break. Here in Toronto he is considered a future "ace", and has been since the turn of the millenium. It's about time we start seeing some results from a guy who has been considered one of our top 5 prospects for YEARS.
I would certainly be inclined to trade Marcum for Renteria. Something else would have to come the Jays way though, in consideration for the fact that Marcum makes peanuts and Renteria makes 11m. The Jays actually have too many young arms and I'd love to see JP make a pre-emptive strike and sell high on at least one of them.
Posted by: 92-93 | September 25, 2007 at 07:35 PM
Either way, Kelly Johnson has been amazing this year for the Braves. So if it's Renty or Yunel that's moved that another great bat in the lineup. I would prefer to move Renteria, Yunel has an amazing arm.
Posted by: ignyrily | September 25, 2007 at 07:39 PM
"Think Braves would take Marquis/Murton for Renteria? Marquis has proven he is an decent #5 with flashes of #3 - 7mil for 2 yrs is cheap for that. Too one sided? for which team?"
No way the Braves would even consider this deal. They're shopping Renteria to find at least a solid #3 starter, not a 5 who shows flashes (they already have enough crappy pitchers who pitch decent once in a while.) They've already had Marquis, and he didn't pan out. The addition of Murton would be nice, but not at the expense of Edgar. I don't really see any trade with Chicago that would upgrade the rotation, Marshall and Hill are both about the equivalent of Chuck James.
AJ Burnett would be nice, but I don't see the Blue Jays going for that one. I think the most likely scenario would be with the Tigers in a deal involving Robertson. Carlos Guillen has already stated he would move to 1st to accomodate Renteria, and the Tigers have plenty of young pitchers with potential in Jurrjens, Miller, etc. The only knock on this deal is that the Tigers are missing the postseason this year because of their pitching, and I'm not sure if Dombrowski is willing to trade away one of his solid starters for another bat.
The trade with Pittsburgh for Ian Snell is definitely one Schuerholz should look into, as long as the Pirates are willing to trade Snell. Losing Escobar isn't a big deal, as they would still have Edgar, and Lillibridge/Prado to take care of SS once he's gone. Boyer and Reyes are both young pitchers with some potential, but I think Snell will end up being better than both of them. The Braves don't have the time with an aging Chipper Jones to sit around and wait for Reyes and Boyer to emerge. Snell still hasn't met his potential but he would still definitely be an upgrade from James in the #3 spot.
2008 Braves?
1. Tim Hudson
2. John Smoltz
3. Ian Snell
4. Chuck James
5. Jeff Bennett/Buddy Carlyle (I'm guessing Hampton's arm will actually come off at the shoulder during spring training.)
1. Kelly Johnson - 2B
2. Edgar Renteria - SS
3. Chipper Jones - 3B
4. Mark Teixeira - 1B
5. Brian McCann - C
6. Jeff Francouer - RF
7. Matt Diaz - LF
8. Willie Harris - CF
I'm really hoping an adequate replacement for Andruw comes via free agency, Willie has already shown us he can't play everyday. Maybe add in a Mike Cameron or (crossing my fingers) Torii Hunter or even crazy ass Milton Bradley, and that's a very formidable lineup.
Posted by: atlbraves317 | September 25, 2007 at 09:29 PM
How about Colby Rasmus for Renteria and Jo Jo Reyes. It fills the Braves need in center which allows them to concentrate on getting pitching. The Cardinals need a young starter and a SS.
Posted by: Bravesfanuc | September 25, 2007 at 10:49 PM
"Problem comes in the fact that Escobar is under control for a longer period of time for a lot less money while still having the possibility of producing similar production to ERent."
Definitely a fair point, but Schuerholz has never seemed to govern his season based on payroll. I wouldn't be surprised if he used 2008 as a payroll frontloaded go-for-it season and 2009 as the recovery season as opposed to using even payrolls over the two. God knows he's earned the right to make those calls in Atlanta with his track record.
"You are right about Yunel Escobar's BABIP being extremely high *notJoeMorgan*. But, I would argue his normal BABIP is easily in the .320-.330 range because his % of line drives hit is through the roof (much higher than a normal hitter who's BABIP is at an average of .280 or so)."
If I'm not mistaken, LD% doesn't have a high year to year correlation for most hitters (and is still somewhat inconsistent park to park). If anything, I'd read that as "his average and BABIP are high because of his LD% but those shouldn't hold up next year". Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd bet on Yunel being well under .330 next season.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | September 25, 2007 at 10:56 PM
im thinking the astros really dont need renteria, granted that adam everett is not a great hitter but they have cody ransom in the minors and eric bruntlett on the bench ready to step in if his BA is under 240...tho they could trade for him and spin him off for a number 2 starter possibly...you never know
Posted by: raider8284 | September 25, 2007 at 11:09 PM
Bravesfanuc,
Nice try, but that's about as dumb as it can get. Rasmus is untouchable. Especially for that garbage
Posted by: ozziethesaint | September 25, 2007 at 11:12 PM
Rasmus for Renteria? I think it would have to take Hank Aaron walking out of his time machine trying to figure out why the Braves aren't in Milwaukee to get Rasmus away from the Cardinals now.
When people throw around comparisions like 'Griffey Jr.', it takes more than a rental and a guy named Jo-Jo.
Posted by: HL | September 25, 2007 at 11:29 PM
Dumb as it gets? Wow Ozzie, you really need to do some research! Colby has been great this year, but that BA isn't likely to translate into the MLB, so that means an even lower BA. Granted, he was injured (or sick) but if you can't hit above 280 in the minors, then I doubt you are going to become a 280 hitter in the majors.
So basically, for a young pitcher with a fair amount of upside, and a batting title contender with good D at SS, we can't net a prospect? And to call it ludicrous? Wow - just wow.
Oh, and calling E-Rent garbage just shows your ignorance.
Posted by: ZachAttack | September 25, 2007 at 11:32 PM
neither of those players equal trading our top prospect
Posted by: ozziethesaint | September 25, 2007 at 11:42 PM
So after doing some research on garza, yes I was wrong, the braves probably would do escobar for garza, my apologies sorry. However, as good as garza is, no way the twins trade him, the same way the giants are not going to give up cain or lincecum for renteria.
As far as rasmus goes, that makes absolutely no sense at all. The production up grade from eckstein to renteria is not worth rasmus, who will eventually be a an all-star calibur player. And he is in a need area for the cards, ozzie is right, ramus will not be given up just to get renteria and jo-jo in return, which is probably as good a package as we could offer. Let's keep in mind that if we deal renteria, im about 98% certain it is for pitching help.
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 26, 2007 at 08:19 AM
And btw, a slightly above league average pitcher, who grant it could become a solid number three in the NL, is not the best package that could possibly be found for a shortstop of nearly the same age who is contending for a batting title, while also playing near gold glove defense. That is not true at all, and that is why I say that even though renteria to the tigers and robertson to the braves does make some sense for both teams, the braves would probably ask for a B level arm to get equal value for renteria. If you want to talk equal value for renteria, Jon Garland or Javier Vazquez may do the trick.
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 26, 2007 at 08:22 AM
Well, ill take garland out of the equation, and stick with vazquez, who himself is more valuable than renteria. I guess any way you go, you cannot find a perfect match, I just think a pitcher with a better track record could be had.
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 26, 2007 at 08:23 AM
Okay what about this. Trade Renteria to the Marlins for Willis. Then move Hanley to CF.
Posted by: Braves1029 | September 26, 2007 at 09:14 AM
Umm, how about probably not. The only way that the marlins are trading willis is if they get young prospects in return, and I am sure the braves want a starter who has put up better numbers recently. Nice Try, but the team's opinons for they want in exchange for each player does not match up.
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 26, 2007 at 09:31 AM
What about a three way trade involving Atlanta, St Louis and Oakland?
Where the Braves send Renteria to St Louis for Chris Duncan and a prospect.
Then, the Braves spin Duncan and the prospect over to Oakland for Joe Blanton BUT, the A's will only do the trade if Atlanta takes Mark Kotsay's contract (perhaps Oakland chips in a couple of million)
Posted by: jza1218 | September 26, 2007 at 10:30 AM
*NotJoeMorgan* I do not think that Escobar is going to hit .330 for the Braves next year either. But, I do see him as someone who could put up a .310/.370/.430 line on a consistent basis while playing better than average defense. I really believe the reports I read that say Braves management saw Escobar as the "untouchable" prospect, not Saltalamacchia...
Posted by: DonCoburleone | September 26, 2007 at 10:40 AM
To all the people that have Renteria coming back to the Cards, the only way it will happen is if it's for Anthony Reyes and then ATL would still have to probably agree to either pay a bunch of Rent's contract or to agree to take Adam Kennedy. Brendan Ryan is is either gonna play 2b or SS. Miles will back up both spots because of his solid D at both positions and because of the man love TLR has for him. So that leaves the Cards stuck with 2 more years on Kennedy's contract. They would have to move that first before getting a SS. Again let me stress the financial restraints the Cards work under won't allow them to just eat Kennedy's deal, bring Rent in and still afford the pitching they need. Plus there's little chance Duncan is moved. Look at his performance in the first half of the season when he wasn't hurt and then factor in he makes near the league min. Replacing that production would cost 5-10 million easily. Which again is not in the budget for 2008. The Cards are going to make one solid FA SP sign. Then they might end up trading Reyes for someone that will have less upside but more consistent production. then expect to take a couple flyers on low risk high reward guys.
Posted by: ozziethesaint | September 26, 2007 at 10:51 AM
JZa, love the creativity man, in all seriousness that is actually not a far fetched idea, only obstacle that i see is the fact that the cards do not want to trade away the offensive potential of duncan for a rental of renteria, and the cards probably view trading duncan away the same way we view a renteria trade, they would use duncan in a trade to get some decent pitching in return, and ozzie is right, i do not know if we would have to take on some money in a renteria trade since boston is already paying a good chunk of his salary, but the cards and braves just do not seem to matchup
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 26, 2007 at 11:01 AM
Unfortunately, as a Cards fan, we don't match up well with any team. Ownership has put the screws to us and stuck this idiotic budget on the team. Personally I would be for blowing this team up and starting over. But financial restraints won't allow that. By the time everyone gets their raises that are coming and they get their own FAs back that they want. I really only see 2-3 new additions. The only thing in our favor is the NLC is not the best division in baseball. Hopefully a full season of a legit innings eater (Think Livan Hernandez type), hopefully a half season of Chris Carpenter and getting some of the key guys that were hurt this year healthy will allow the Cards to stand their own in the NLC in 2008.
Posted by: ozziethesaint | September 26, 2007 at 11:28 AM
Ozzie, im with ya on livan, i would love to have him as an option at the back end of the rotation.
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 26, 2007 at 11:35 AM
And, as a braves fan, the cards seem to find themselves in a position the braves are always in. The team has the pieces to go out and get a need fufilled, but by trading a player to fill one need, we create a new need at the position held by the player we traded. For the cards, chris duncan is a perfect example, as he would definitely get some useful pitching in return, but the cards do not really have a consistient power threat as an option if they exchanged duncan for said pitching. The braves are going to find themselves in this situation even more in the near future, as we have depleted our farm system of a lot of talent. I guess trying to feel needs without giving up other needs is what makes baseball so fun, even when no action is happening on the field.
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 26, 2007 at 11:40 AM
For the Cards I think it's gonna be Livan or a homecoming for Matty Morris. They both bring the ability to eat up some innings and keep you in ballgames consistently. Which is something that Kip Wells never did figure out how to do. The Key for next season is just to be healthier. If Mulder is a .500 pitcher next season that's a good start. Of course you want to see AP putting up AP numbers. Rolen being able to drive the ball would be a plus as well. I don't see things being that bad in STL in 08.
Posted by: ozziethesaint | September 26, 2007 at 11:50 AM
You have posted here before that the White Sox want two good relievers for Garland.
So, three way deal:
To Chicago: Scott Downs and Jason Frasor. Throw in Banks or someone just to make nice if need be.
To Atlanta: Garland
to Toronto: Renteria and the prospect originally offered for Garland.
Easy-squeezy.
And yes, the Jays can afford Renteria.
Posted by: WillRain | September 26, 2007 at 11:59 AM
BTW, in scanning over the responses here, i think perhaps not enough attention is being paid to the arket. Even mediocre pitching is being highly valued right now, whereas it's a relatively short list of teams who are practical possibilities for a guy like Renteria (or Tejada or Wilson) so, despite Renteria's objective value, it's seriously a buyer's market for short stops, despite the super-thin Free Agent pool.
Posted by: WillRain | September 26, 2007 at 12:05 PM
Sorry, i like how you put all the pieces together, but i think the jays win that deal out right, and that neither the braves nor whitesox get the value for what they are giving up.
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 26, 2007 at 12:25 PM
I know this thread is dead now but:
*Colby has been great this year, but that BA isn't likely to translate into the MLB, so that means an even lower BA. Granted, he was injured (or sick) but if you can't hit above 280 in the minors, then I doubt you are going to become a 280 hitter in the majors.
*
Colby Rasmus is playing AA baseball as a (just turned) 21 year old. His average took a big hit while he battled a month long sinius infection.
Posted by: HL | September 26, 2007 at 01:38 PM
What about James Shields for Edgar Renteria. Shields has been pretty good for the D-Rays and he will be even better with the Braves lineup and defense behind him
Posted by: Barroid_Bonds | September 26, 2007 at 02:51 PM
Exactly, so why the hell would the Devil Rays trade him? You dont trade away young pitching with huge upside that just posted a near 6/1 K/BB and is locked up cheap, especially when your the D Rays and you are starving for pitching. They are looking to add arms, not give them away.
Posted by: nrmax88 | September 26, 2007 at 03:01 PM
Not to mention it blocks a (cost effective) top prospect in Brignac. Trades need to be looked at from both sides, kids.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | September 26, 2007 at 03:46 PM
Quote:
Sorry, i like how you put all the pieces together, but i think the jays win that deal out right, and that neither the braves nor White Sox get the value for what they are giving up.
~unquote
I actually completely agree with you. I think the Jays make out like bandits there. but the Braves are getting exactly what they wanted (if the report is true) and the White Sox get exactly what they want (a lefty as good as Downs is pure gold right now and Frasor is underrated - a victim of a handful of horrible outings) - if the reports are true.
So while I agree the Jays are the big winners, I am just giving them what they supposedly want.
Posted by: WillRain | September 26, 2007 at 03:47 PM
Houston's Wandy Rodriguez. Decent WHIP, good K rates, and he's cheap and under the Braves control for a few more years. Wandy will benefit with some better defense as well. Houston gets a nice top of the order hitter to get on base for Berkman, Lee and Scott.
Posted by: statnut | September 26, 2007 at 03:58 PM
"Maybe something between Toronto and Atlanta can be worked out. AJ Burnett maybe?"
This, and subsequent discussion of Burnett, as well as this:
"I agree with the people saying it should be Escobar and not Renteria that gets moved."
And similar remarks both ignore one of the central premises of this discussion:
The fact that the Braves are probably going to have to shed payroll. Trading Renteria for a pitcher like Burnett (or Oswalt or whomever) who makes similar money doesn't solve the problem. Nor does trading the inexpensive kid and keeping the high priced veteran.
Posted by: WillRain | September 26, 2007 at 04:06 PM
I could handle Noah Lowry or Joe Blanton. Maybe send Rent to the Tigers for either Robertson or Miller or for Jurrjens and minor leaguer?
Posted by: FineHamAbounds | October 01, 2007 at 04:07 PM