Needs and Luxuries: Toronto Blue Jays

I think that Burnett has more trade value that just Renteria. However, I do believe that could be the foundation of a solid trade.

My question is can the Blue Jays win without Burnett. If the answer is that they won't win anyway then why hold onto to Glaus, Thomas, Ryan, etc. They are another team that has a very high payroll without much chance to win it all. I would vote to trade those pieces off and build around Rios, Wells and their young pitching.

You either do that or you make a splash and gamble away your future going after an A-Rod or some other big masher that could potentially put you over the top.

I know management has soured on Burnett but I see him every start and I think he's a very good pitcher. He's due for a DL stint every year and 150 innings, but even with his 3.56 ERA I think he could have done even better this year. If he keeps it up next year, it would be his 'break out' year everyone was waiting for. I can see him opting out though I hope he doesn't, but I don't think he should be traded now because he's too good. Our pitching staff has been great but won't be this good next year.

Tim you forgot about Orlando Cabrera as a trade possibility. Also, you should mention the Jays have one of the best, if not the best, defence in the majors. But we need a better offensive SS than J-Mac. Two more things about this: JP only said he had no interest in Jack Wilson because they asked for too much in a trade (Troy Glaus) so he pulled his cards off the table but he WAS interested. I'd say he's still viable and if they eat some contract, he'd be not half-bad.

What about Shaun Marcum for Yuniel Escobar?

I'm also very split on whether they should non-tender Reed Johnson and/or Josh Towers. Towers could be a 5th starter when the young'uns have a sophomore slump and he hasn't been bad, though unreliable in the past. I see them non-tendering him. Reed Johnson has been awful and a $3.5 million 4th OF I wouldn't love...even at normal his bat isn't great. They said they'd bring Stairs back, but I still see them keeping him.

Last thing, the guy who said they should sell off their contracts obviously doesn't follow the Jays closely. They have a pricey core and are going for it now. To trade off players for cents on the dollar would destroy their chances altogether, it's just a dumb idea since that is their core. They just have to hope they get lucky and try to win. Their Pythag is 76-66 with all the injuries.

The bluejays have been such as frustrating team to watch this year. With all of the money thrown into the offense and the hype about the "big bats", It went down hill just as the pitching staff found its way.

I agree that the pitching staff should remain the same for 2008 perhaps with some minor changes such as trading or non-tendering Josh Towers & Jason Frasor and maybe adding a vetran middle relief guy to provide some leadership for all the young guys.

As for the offense, I think Reed Johnson, Gregg Zaun and Troy Glaus should be trade candidates in the offseason. The emergence of Matt Stairs and the potential of Adam Lind make Johnson expendable. A Stairs/Lind Platoon situation could work nicely as both are left handed batters that would be nice to have on the bench late in the game.

Gregg Zaun's poor defensive ability and average offensive production combined with the immergence of Curtis Thigpen and potential of Robinson Diaz make him expendable. A possible 08 catching situation would see Thigpen as the starter and Fasano as the Backup.

Glaus would probably be the least likely to move given his situation, which would not be a bad thing having his juiced bat in the line up. But if he could be traded for a top of the line-up type of hitter such as Furcal from the Dodgers or Figgins from the Angels it could provide the character the Jays lineup needs to increase its production.

bjsguess. It's all about weighing a player's commodity value and their true worth. In this case, almost all the Jays players have more true worth RELATIVE to their commodity value. So there's no point in taking steps backward since you can't take steps forward. Now, can you see the future? No, they play the games for a reason. What do I care if they spend 90 million and end in 3rd place. As long as they have the best shot possible. And for 2008 it means keeping the same pricey, talented team. They ARE going for it now and they have tons of their chips in. People said they'd finish 3rd last year and they didn't. The point is they have a chance and can win. You don't really know if they do so stop acting like you know.

Anyway, to respond to BJays Fan, some good ideas. But Thigpen isn't good enough start. That's another need though: a good backup defensive catcher. I think trade for Gerald Laird, who has offensive upside too. Maybe it takes a bullpen guy like Scott Downs. Don't overpay though. And I like the idea of Lind and Stairs because the lineup is so righty anyway that more lefties are not a probelm. Also, are you crazy with non-tendering Jason Frasor. At the least maybe he can be used as a trade chip for a Gerald Laird type. But even if they don't use him much, he's a very good reliever. 3.86 ERA, 52 k's and 19 walks in 51 innings and 3 homers. That's great.

BTW bjguess, they are going for it now as seen in the wells contract, spending tons of money, etc. so why would they deconstruct now? all the salaries come off the book in a year or two anyway so may as well go for it while you ahve them. they also have trouble attracting free agents. so they may as well go down fighting then just play it safe and save a few milloin. wtf?

Also if someone has baseball prospectus I know they do a stat of how hard the competition is you faced. I'm willing to bet Marcum ranks pretty high because he always seems to get tough opponentes like the Red Sox and Yankees.

WOW, the one over paying would be the braves. We have a guy who basically has hit as well and played as good a defense as renteria has in edgar's absence. Marcum is a nice pitcher, but number 3 is his upside. Mcgowan may be untouchable, but you are overpricing marcum a bit too much. J.P would jump at the chance to add escobar for marcum, but that is completely insane if you think escobar is not enough for him. Escobar has proven that he is a great asset on both offense and defense, so try not to get back to your old ways of thinking too much about the jay's prospects. Furthermore, we have jo-jo reyes, a pitcher who may have more upside than litsch or marcum. So when i think about it, you are pretty much wrong in thinking the Jays' would be giving up too much in marcum for escobar, as it actually complete opposite, the braves would be the ones to deny that trade.

I think Marcum straight up for escobar/ prospect would be a fair trade given that the jays are desperate for a good hitting shortstop but other wise the starting pitching market is terrible this offseason making Marcum a hot commodity if he would be made available.

In responding about Thigpen, his potential is likely a solid defensive average hitting catcher. I think he is ready to be a starter with a solid vetran back-up guy like fasano. By comparison to Zaun's defensive/ offensive capabilities Thigpen has a distinct advantage defensively, while Zaun may have a slight advantage offensive and Thigpen may improve if given the opportunity. Not to mention, Zaun is paid somewhere around $2.5 to $3.5 million.

Burnett for Renteria? That's serious insanity. Especially coming from someone who posted and said the Braves would part with one of their SSs for Jon freaking Garland. Burnett is seriously underrated around these parts, and all one needs to do is look at how he has done since returning from his latest injury, which by the way was most likely brought on by Gibbons' horrible managing, not some propensity for Burnett to get injured. A quick glance at his game logs from this season also peg him as a 15-5 pitcher, so I really don't want to hear any of this "he's a .500 pitcher" BS.

Also, I love how Marcum gets absolutely no respect from the US media. Here are some of the young studs you all have a crush on, and how Marcum compares to them. I use only his #s as a starter this year, because, frankly, what he did when he was being misused out of the pen isn't his fault.

SMarcum 3.45 1.15
CHamels 3.50 1.13
JVerlander 3.56 1.22
FHernandez 4.17 1.43
JWeaver 4.00 1.41
MCain 3.78 1.30

I promise you you would all laugh if it was suggested that any of those 5 pitchers be traded for Renteria. That's how laughable this is.

The extent to which the American media ignores the players playing in Canada seriously bothers me.

And you bring up Tulowitzki and reference the 2005 draft when JP took Romero instead of drafting his third SS in 4 years with his first pick (Adams, Hill). What you fail to mention is that while Troy is having a solid start to his career, he is hitting .244/.315/.357/.672 on the road, as opposed to his .972 OPS at Coors. It's way too early to tell if this guy is as good as he looks. Let's see him do something on the road before we all jump on his bandwagon.

I dont think the Jays want to give up Burnett or Marcum, or McGowen. If they can all stay healthy healthy along with Roy Halladay (which didnt happen this year) the Jays automatically have a top 5 rotation in baseball, possibly top 3. If im the Jays, I would go after Eckstein, who would you rather have, Burnett/Marcum/McGowen and Eckstein or another probably averge pitcher and Edgar? Answer is obvious for me.

ESPN is saying the Jays are close to resigning McDonald for around $2mil per year (2 year contract). Don't know if they plan on starting him or using him as a utility guy though.

ejruiz...realistically, I've heard JP doesn't like to deal with the Braves because John Schureloz is "too smart."

Also, wtf is with the Jmac signing? That's too much, though we don't know offical dollars yet, but let's hope he's just a backup.

BTW - I would apply my philosophy to the following teams:

Giants
Astros
Braves
Orioles
White Sox
Reds

Do something bold or trade away your high priced talent. What good is Zito doing in SF? Oswalt in Houston? Tejada in Baltimore ...

The other teams not listed fall into one of two categories. They either (1) have a manageable payroll and are developing for the future or (2) are in contention for next year and need to add a piece or two.

I don't think the jays are that far off I mean really their offense is seriously underachieving. If their offense makes it half the way to where it was last season they are the wild card team right now.

Personally I leave J Mac at SS and look for a productive Catcher to split time with Thigpen and get rid of Zaun. I don't think its a stretch to say MacDonald has been the best Defensive SS in the game this year and there's no sign of that changing for next year.

Catcher has been a black hole for the Jays this year inconsistant hitting and bad defense. If you can get a Left handed hitting Catcher that can hit around say the 6 spot in the lineup it will help a lot.

Also I keep Reed Johnson and use Adam Lind as the trade bait. Then Platoon Johnson and Stairs until Travis Snider is ready for the Bigs.

Also, why are Jays fans so desperate to replace McDonald? His .608 OPS is certainly god-awful but he deserves the GG. I don't have access to the numbers but I bet his defense is at least close to making up for his offensive shortcomings.

bjsguess,

If you think the Blue Jays need to dump their core players and retool, well, think again.

They have been on "Retooling Mode" for years. Uncle Ted just gave the nod and increased the payroll over the next a few years.

Thus the Jays got their total payroll increased from the 40M-50M range to 70M-80M and now you want them to go back and start all over again?

Even with the $79.9M payroll in 2007, they're still just ranked 17th in MLB, which is relatively low compared to 1995, when they ranked 1st in payrolls. (The overall payrolls before The Strike were considerably lower, granted. 1995 Blue Jays ranked 1st in payroll at $49.8M)

Now, the Yankkes and the BSox aren't gonna cut their payroll any time soon in the near future. Are you basically saying that the Jays should just stay in Retooling Mode as long as we're in AL East?

Like some of the brilliant posts above stated, the payroll increase for the Jays means "Win Now," and Riccardi has been given the duty to construct a winning team with the available resources possible. Can't say he's very successful, but that's another entirely different matter.

I'd say that the failure of '07 consists several factors:

1. Uncle Ted chose a bad time to increase the overall payroll...the FA market was thin, not much to choose from. B+ to A- players were given A+ salaries. I still think that Wells was given a Bonds/ARod type of contract when he'd probably never have a 50-homer season in his baseball career. Ryan, Burnett, Wells, Glaus all got fat A+ player contracts...Some may argue that it's hard to attract players to play in Canada, and fat contracts were issued to "make a statement that the Jays want to WIN NOW." I would not comment on the philosophy behind that thinking as a fan, but truth is that when the best player in the FA market is B+, he'd probably get a A+ contract and that'd hurt a team in the long run. Especially if you're not the Yankees.

2. Injuries. Well, it's so obvious, I'm not going to write another 300-word paragraph to explain it.

In conclusion, I think the Jays are heading in the right direction. Maybe some tweaks and trades here and there, and then hope the players live up to their contracts.

Uh, no. They have higher ceilings because they are just plain better. Being younger just makes them even better.