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Needs and Luxuries: Kansas City Royals
Next up in our Needs and Luxuries series, the Royals. My projected 2008 setup is below.
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C - John Buck
1B - Ross Gload/Billy Butler
2B - Mark Grudzielanek
SS - Tony Pena Jr.
3B - Alex Gordon
LF - Joey Gathright
CF - David DeJesus
RF - Mark Teahen
DH - Billy Butler/Mike Sweeney
SP - Gil Meche
SP - Brian Bannister
SP - Zack Greinke
SP - Kyle Davies
SP - Jorge De La Rosa/Billy Buckner/Luke Hochevar/Luke Hudson
Setup - David Riske
Closer - Joakim Soria
Needs
You have to like what Dayton Moore is doing with this club. They're looking to have their best record since '03 and definitely appear on the way up. Of course, like any rebuilding team, they have some needs.
One need the Royals have is power. They're dead last in the AL with a .392 SLG. To be fair, their stadium is not receptive to the longball. But the Royals don't hit for power on the road either. The good news is that Gordon and Butler both project as 30 home run guys in the near future. And Buck can hit 20. The bad news is that Mark Teahen's '06 power surge now looks like a mirage and the cupboard is otherwise bare. I don't think the next contending Royals team will have its corner outfielders combining for 16 home runs.
The Royals also need an injection of OBP but I'm less worried about that. Gordon will pick it up, and Emil Brown will hopefully be non-tendered. I also think Gload should be less of a regular and more of a bench player, so the team needs to decide if Butler can handle first base.
The team's 4.47 ERA isn't too bad; it's barely worse than that of the Yankees. Of course, most teams need pitching. The Royals should continue to stock up on young hurlers however possible. I liked the way Moore turned the Octavio Dotel rental into Davies. Maybe they can try it again with Milton Bradley, Mike Piazza, Matt Clement, Jon Lieber...I could go on. Hell, they could just sign Dotel again and flip him.
Luxuries
Rebuilding teams aren't known for having surpluses. That said I do like DeJesus and Riske as candidates to be flipped this winter or at the '08 trade deadline. DeJesus is signed reasonably through 2011, while Riske's '08 option for around $3MM will certainly be picked up. Both have their flaws but neither will kill you. The targets should be more young pitchers and maybe a corner type with pop. Perhaps Moore could get the Braves interested in DeJesus for Scott Thorman or Kala Kaaihue. Or if he can do better, fantastic.
Hopefully teams will look at DeJesus and Riske as lower cost alternatives to the free agent center fielders and late inning relievers.
I suppose another luxury could be an excess of first base types lacking the offense for the position, like Gload, Ryan Shealy, and Justin Huber. But the market for those guys is surely weak. Maybe a Thorman type would only add to that.
You can't call the starting pitching a luxury at present but you have to like the core of Meche, Bannister, and Greinke for the next few seasons. If Moore gets a third cheap guy to pan out, he can make a big free agent splash for one more veteran arm when the team is ready to contend.
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Whatever happened to Runlyves Hernandez or however his name was spelled?
Posted by: Chillin | September 16, 2007 at 06:41 AM
I could see the Astros having interest in DeJesus to move Pence to rf.
Posted by: Mike Simms | September 16, 2007 at 07:46 AM
Hernandez signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox in ST. He had an opt clause on his contract, and he left because he wasn't getting his shot at the big leagues. It really wasn't his fault though, the Red Sox just had no open spots and weaknesses in the rotation, in April, May, and June. I think he opted out in June.
Tim, when you are going to post your Top 50 Free Agents with predictions? I'm looking forward to that.
Posted by: SoxFanatic456 | September 16, 2007 at 08:35 AM
JOHN BUCK is a "luxury". a catcher with a long, cheap contract with potential through the roof. He has 280 avergae 30 HR potential, which did not happen this year because Buddy Bell tried to change his swing.
Posted by: johnbuckformvp | September 16, 2007 at 08:54 AM
He means luxury as in positions where there is depth to trade. They have multiples of something that other teams need. Like this past season, Jarrod Saltalamacchia was a luxury because the Braves had Brian McCann.
Posted by: was385 | September 16, 2007 at 09:17 AM
"Whatever happened to Runlyves Hernandez or however his name was spelled?"
that allows me to explain the origin of my name. Immediatly before Buck and Hernandez fought in the dugout, Buck pointed at Hernandez and started shouting. I am good @ reading lips and i analyzed the video and determined that he said "THEMFIGHTNWORDS"
Posted by: themfightnwords | September 16, 2007 at 09:44 AM
"You have to like what Dayton Moore is doing with this club"
not if your an idiot and your name is nrmax.
Posted by: themfightnwords | September 16, 2007 at 09:48 AM
I think the top 50 FAs will have to come around November or so.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 16, 2007 at 10:33 AM
Rats! I'm interested to see where you think guys will land.
MLB4u.com has already posted theres. It is pretty intersted. Many of them I agree with.
Can't wait to see yours Tim!
Posted by: SoxFanatic456 | September 16, 2007 at 10:37 AM
I think it's just too early for it, though I do like MLB4U's list.
It's funny to look back at last year's.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/11/top_50_baseball.html
Takes a while to work out the scenarios and decide who's interested in what.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 16, 2007 at 11:55 AM
Tim, just a suggestion here, but I think you should make a post about possibile Japanese pitchers that may be posted this winter. I think many of us would enjoy that. I've heard 3 guys who may be posted. Kazumi Saito, Kenshin Kawakami, and Koji Uehara.
Posted by: SoxFanatic456 | September 16, 2007 at 12:18 PM
Agreed, but I need to do some research as I had only heard of Uehara until recently (he is a free agent I think).
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 16, 2007 at 12:51 PM
I was looking around for some info on it on this website, www.japaneseballplayers.com
The only problem is that many of the articles about players coming to MLB are expired. I'm sure you have more sources to look at.
Posted by: SoxFanatic456 | September 16, 2007 at 01:08 PM
Tim, can you please give me a fantasy analysis on your condo? Why aren't you interested in re-signing it, what do you predict its production to be next year, and who would it net in the trade market?
(j/k, BTW.)
Posted by: ScooterPie | September 16, 2007 at 01:38 PM
Well my condo just recruited Boras as its agent and he and I have a longstanding grudge.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 16, 2007 at 03:05 PM
I would say SS is a need.
Tony Pena's line: .259/.278/.338
A .278 OBP is never a good thing, and certinanly contributes to the teams horrible OBP. He's walking 2% of the time and is just barely getting over 3 pitchers per pa. And although fielding statistics are to be taken with a cup of salt, he's rather middle of the road in them.
Posted by: Nny | September 16, 2007 at 03:24 PM
I have a Greinke question for the royals boys.
When he's starting now does he still hit mid high 90s as he was in relief?
Also does he stills throw his slow like 50 mph curveball?
Posted by: Thrillhouse26 | September 16, 2007 at 04:00 PM
Greinke is still mid 90's on the regular. He even pushes it up near 97-98 on rare occasions. I haven't seen the slow curve in QUITE a long while tho.
Posted by: kyledavidson | September 16, 2007 at 04:13 PM
What do you guys know about Pedro Alvarez?
Posted by: Derrick | September 16, 2007 at 04:22 PM
Not that it makes much of a difference on Manny but how are his 2 team options (09 & 10) effected by a trade?
Posted by: tmar | September 16, 2007 at 04:52 PM
I see the Royals going after a bat this offseason, maybe Carlos Quentin or Milton Bradley.
DeJesus or Gathright will be gone, probably DeJesus.
Posted by: firesticks | September 16, 2007 at 04:58 PM
Excellent suggestion in Dejesus to the braves. I think that thorman for dejesus is an excellent trade for both teams, and i am also pretty sure both will thrive better in a new place. Dejesus will give us a realiable option in center and is can help at either the top or bottom of the order, while just adds more power to an already pretty impresive lineup.
BTW, got a question, if JS and bobby cox do call it quits after 08, do you think there is any chance Moore becomes our next GM while giradi or yost becomes our manager?
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 16, 2007 at 07:11 PM
No, Thorman for DeJesus is highway robbery for the Braves. Come on man, you know as well as I do that Thorman isn't a good major league hitter. At best he's an .800 OPS first baseman, while DeJesus at his best is an .800 OPS center fielder.
Posted by: firesticks | September 16, 2007 at 07:52 PM
Even as I was writing it, Thorman just didn't seem enough. Maybe some kind of package deal.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | September 16, 2007 at 09:33 PM
""You have to like what Dayton Moore is doing with this club"
not if your an idiot and your name is nrmax.""
Really I say that stuff just to get under your skin. And it works too.
Posted by: nrmax88 | September 16, 2007 at 10:42 PM
I hope they find a way to acquire Julian Tavarez from the Sox, only because I want to see Gathwright kick his ass for sucker punching/slapping him a few years back.
Posted by: Chillin | September 16, 2007 at 11:45 PM
LOL, firesticks, maybe that is why I liked the deal so much. I think that thorman has legit 30 homer power, but it will come at the expense of a .250 batting average, so I will agree. However, I do think that thorman and a bullpen arm whom we would not need but could produce at the majors might get a deal done.
Posted by: bravesbeast | September 17, 2007 at 08:18 AM
Tavarez is an FA after the season , if the Sox don't pick up his option.
Posted by: SoxFanatic456 | September 17, 2007 at 08:33 AM
I don't think DeJesus would be a good fit for the Astros. The defensive improvement wouldn't be worth the increased cost over the guy he would replace (Luke Scott) and it would be a lateral move offensively. Throw in the fact that the Astros would have to give up some talent in return, and it doesn't look like a good deal.
The Marlins and Braves could be decent options. The Braves have a respectable lineup, even without Andruw, so getting a guy like DeJesus would be OK. The Marlins are always on the lookout for a CF. Maybe the two teams could work something out around DeJesus and Olsen? Money might be a problem for the Marlins though.
Another fit might be someone like the Padres.
Posted by: mymrbig | September 17, 2007 at 02:51 PM
mymrbig, I agree with what you are saying pretty much, and in most cases I would say your completely right, it is a move for the sake of making a move and doesnt improve the team. The only difference is here that the Astros really can use a solid leadoff hitter, which Dejesus is. 12 or 13 homeruns and a .365 OBP out of the leadoff spot in Houston is reasonable to expect. This alone would be a big upgrade because Houstons leadoff hitters this year are hitting to a .262/.307/.408 clip. Then you have your outfield set for the next 4 or 5 years, unless they feel that Josh Anderson is going to be their leadoff hitter, which I dont, atleast not now. I know the guy can fly, and he covers a lot of ground in the outfield, but he was unimpressive posting a .666 OPS in 500 at bats in AAA this year. There may be potential down the road, because he was impressive in AA in 2006, but if the Stros want to compete next year, which isnt ridiculous, then I would try to get Dejesus. Then Scott becomes sort of a luxury. Dejesus is having a down year sort of, atleast batting average wise, but for 05 and 06, Dejesus was a .290/.360/.445 guy, and that .800 OPS in centerfield and in the leadoff spot would be a huge upgrade for Houston.
Posted by: nrmax88 | September 17, 2007 at 04:23 PM
Using the Astros' leadoff hitter stats isn't really fair since it has been apparent to everyone outside the Astros' management that Biggio should not have been leading off!
I agree that the Astros could use a leadoff guy and DeJesus' OBP around .360 over the past 4 seasons would be useful. But Scott's OBP this year is .352 and he has more power. DeJesus isn't a SB threat, so offensively, you are just getting a guy with more AVG but less SLG.
Why trade talent the Astros don't have for DeJesus when they could go after a vet like Lofton for a similar price (in dollars) who won't cost any young talent?
Now if they trade Scott, going after Lofton or DeJesus might make sense (and would be a big help for a pretty putrid defense). But I don't think they should relegate Scott to 4th OF duties when he looks like a league AVG RF.
Posted by: mymrbig | September 17, 2007 at 04:44 PM