Sunday Morning Santana

I still think it would take another high prospect to get Santana.

I couldn't agree more Barroid. I don't think there's a team that can get Johan in a simple 2 for 1. It's gonna take at the very least 3 prospects. This is a proven top 3 SP. There's not a team in the league that can't say they'd like to Johan in their rotation. And none of these prospects being discussed are sure things. All the talk in the Johan for Kemp/Kershaw thread yesterday was hysterical. Neither of those guys are proven MLB star quality players. So I wouldn't take that deal if I was the Twins. I would need at least 1 more to even consider it.

i'm sorry i meant either hughes or joba plus kennedy...not both plus kennedy

My local beat-writer thinks Johan should fetch a power-hitting 3B, a power-hitting CA, and an established young starter "who can win 15 games". Anybody think one year of a $13 million Johan is worth that?

Joba is untouchable? Sure.

Everyone would rather have Joba than Santana. Joba has all of 23 major league innings under his belt. Throw in his AAA performance and you have a sample of 50 or so innings to compare against years of performance in Johan.

And since when did Cabrera get included in the category of a cornerstone young players. Has anyone seen his stats recently? .274/.327/.392 is a little underwhelming. He plays solid defense and plays with heart but who cares? Those numbers don't represent the kind of player you can build a club around. Melky can go on to be a fine major league player but he won't become a super-star.

Face it, if you want Santana it will cost you 2 great prospects or current major league players (guys that the Twins can control for the next 5-6 years) + some more.

I'm not sold on Santana for Ellsbury/Bucholtz. I think that's too much of Boston's future given up to get him.

If Theo's smart (which he is), he'll keep Ellsbury and Bucholtz. They will be staples in Boston for a while.

ozziethesaint-Are you crazy dude? If there is no extension signed, the Twins get two elite prospects (one of whom has already proven that he has the potential to be great in the MLB) for a one year rental. How is that not fair? What do they want? Another elite prospect for a guy who might barely help the Dodgers make the playoffs? Great.

Perfectly said Barroid. Everyone overvalues prospects these days. Too many of them flame out. You do what it takes to get players that will help you win. Would you rather have the best pitcher in the game? Or a couple guys that MIGHT be solid starters?

Johan/Penny/Lowe/Billy/Schmidt...

Even if 2 go down with injury you still probably have the best 1-3 in the NL in an extreme pitchers park. Its taking away from an area of depth (OF & MiL Pit) to add the best pitcher in baseball...

Then ya got Young/Pierre/Either/Loney/Kent/Hu?/LaR/Martin with maybe a couple vets signed for the bench ~ you're set...

I don't see how you can't see if it gets it done really...

Can't wait for next year. That's when Yankee and Red Sox fans figure out that Buchholtz and Joba aren't the best pitchers in the game. They will go through the same process that Met's fans went through this year with Milledge, the Reds with Bailey, and just about every other team who had a coveted prospect who played just OK.

It would be interesting to have a post of recent top prospects from BA. Check in to see how many of those are making a huge impact and how many of those have flamed out.

Who's in line to replace Tori Hunter? I only ask because I'm curious as to the value a Lastings Milledge or Carlos Gomez might have. Obviously its just a start, but the way the Mets collapsed this year, if Santana's out there, Omar had better be all in (assuming a trade and sign is possible).

There are even some fans over on Cerrone's Metsblog right now throwing Reyes's name out there if Santana's is. I think thats just plain crazy, but its just a sign of how crazy Mets fans are feeling right now.

Yeah Brian Bannister for Burgos was probably a mistake, definetly in an immediate sense. But it was a toughy to call. Omar moved a low upside type who seemed like he'd top out as a risky #5 for a high risk/high reward reliever with closer potential.

In hindsight its easy to fault the move, Pelfrey wasn't ready at all and Maine wasn't quite ready for a full season, Bannister really would have soldified the #5 spot. Oh yeah, and Burgos did nothing but give up a big HR early in the season to Ryan Howard before getting hurt. But at the time I couldn't complain.

Honestly, the one I feel was more regrettable both in hindsight and probably at the time was moving Bell and Ring. I think if we had Heath Bell (and someone was willing to put him in Motas spot sometime around June or July) we're probably there too. And the return was really worthless. A mediocre OF prospect in Ben Johnson (completely unnecessary with Milledge and Gomez) who got hurt anyway and a washed up reliever who'll be lucky to be come a journeyman in Jon Adkins. It would also have been nice to keep Matt Lindstrom around, definetly more useful than Jason Vargas or Adam Bostick, he had a nice year.

I still don't think Omar even breathes Reyes's name to another GM, nor do I think if he did that he'd find another GM agreeable on the terms it would take to get Reyes. Its just right now, the fanbase is basically furious at every member of the organization whose name isn't David Wright.

*** sorry - meant NL east ****

Just like you said Reyes is the third best in his division based on this season, Johan Santana is far from the best pitcher in baseball based on this season. In his division alone at least two pitchers had far better seasons (Carmona, Sabathia), in the league or even in the majors there are plenty more.

Kemp/Kershaw to me is by far the best offer, and for the Dodgers it doesn't make sense. If you trade those two you trade them for offense. The Dodgers already have a good 1-2-3 for next year.

You are never allowed to talk again.

MEddler - it's true that you just can't compare this year. How about last year as well.

Reyes 2006 : .300/.354/.487
Ramirez 2006: .292/.353/.480

06 was Reyes' 4th season in the bigs and by far his best. 06 represented Ramirez's rookie season.

As an FYI here is Rollins line from year 4 of his career: .289/.348/.455. Not a whole lot different from Reyes (except for the SB's). I stand by my point that Reyes is the 3rd best SS in his division.

As for Santana, once you look beyond wins and losses you see a very dominant pitcher. Arguably the best pitcher in the AL.

ERA - 7th
IP - 6th
K's - 2nd
WHIP - 1st

Throw in the fact that this was a DOWN year for Johan and he still was absolutely amazing.

The Mets would score a coup if they could trade Reyes straight up for Santana.

Good posts yourself bj. I fully agree with you. I love Reyes, but he is the 3rd best SS in that division. People don't seem to realize just how good HanRam and Rollins are. They are both ridiculous, especially HanRam. Look what a year he had!

On Santana, I agree. I posted this before, but over the last 4 years I believe he had an ERA .70 lower than ANY other pitcher in the AL over that span. That is dominance. He is unquestionably the best pitcher in baseball. People look at won-loss way too much. In fact, that's the only reason that Santana didn't win THREE straigth Cy Young's. Colon's win was an absolute joke. It would take Reyes plus Milledge I think to get Santana, something like that.

Lastly, on the DH/3b question, really, given this weak FA market, the only way to do it is through trades. They have a number of excess pitching prospects to deal, plus one of Nathan/Boof (Boof could set up Neshek if Nathan was dealt, as I mentioned) so that'd be their best bet. To go after a team like either Tampa Bay (Gomes and Iwamura, with their other options looming, including Longoria), or Arizona (Quentin/Tracy, with Byrnes' awful deal/Reynolds looming). That's really the only way, PLUS re-sign Hunter, or at least Rowand or Cameron as a replacement.

All of that is doable certainly, but we will see if Bill Smith has the guts to do it.

There's really almost nothing at 3b/DH this offseason. Lowell is the only worthwhile 3b and he's going to be overpaid based on this season, and Sweeney and Piazza are the only worthwhile DH's and both are injury prone. Oh, Bonds too, but I seriously doubt the Twins sign him. Really, given that, any team that needs to fill those holes, like the Twins, will need to get creative in dealing this offseason.

You folks are silly! And I'm not even a Mets fan.

1 year of Santana for $13.25 million is worth MORE than 3 years of Reyes for around $20 million, plus a 2011 option? Johan is unequivocally the best pitching in baseball, but 1 year of him is not worth 3-4 years of Reyes at that price. And Reyes is only 24, so he can be expected to improve next year. His BB rate improved for the 4th straight season and his K rate dropped some more. While Hanley and Jimmy were better this season, any of the 3 of them could be the best next year.

And Wright? Seriously? He is signed through 2012 at well below market. 1 year of Santana isn't even remotely worth 5 years (plus a 2013 option) of Wright. Like Reyes, he's only 24 and should continue to improve. He went 30/30 this year, to go with his .325/.416/.546 line.

As for trades that actually make sense? I still like Kemp/Kershaw. Kershaw is a prospect, and even though it is vogue to over-value prospects, I'm not going to do so. He could be Santana, but he could be a flameout. Kemp is a career .312/.344/.496 hitter and he just turned 23. He's already an above-average regular (at worst) and looks like he's a future all-star.

However, if I was the Twins, knowing that I already have fairly decent pitching in 2008 without Santana (assuming Liriano is 100%), I might ask for Kemp, LaRoche, and a slightly lesser pitching prospect. This would plug 2 offensive holes with young, cheap, talented players.

I think to suggest that Reyes is easily only third best in the division is lunacy. I mean, I see the point, Hanley had an awesome season. But SS is still a defensive position, and he was below average. Rollins had a nice defensive year, but he still doesn't have the range or arm of Reyes.

First you can't compare the career line of a player around 29-30 (Rollins) to that of a 24 year old. Its just unfair. Not to mention last year Reyes had a much better year than Rollins, as much better as Rollins was this year.

Again I say Hanley is a much more fair comparison. And he's had two awesome seasons so far. Reyes has been around a bit longer, but he came up really young, and had some leg problems early on that seem to have worked themselves out. The jury will be out on this one for a long time, but I don't think its possible to call Hanley the better player. Reyes also had a better year last year, even if it was only in SB and defense, it was still significantly better.

I wouldn't count out the Phillies out on Santana either. They will have a lot of money to spend this off-season, and they have some pretty good young prospects. I also think that it will take more than 2 prospects to land Johan.

Phillies could offer the Twins a package of Michael Bourn (a Juan Pierre prototype), Carlos Carrasco (Phils top pitching prospect), and Adrian Cardenas (best 19 year old hitting prospect in baseball). That would satisfy the Twins, I believe. Bourn is MLB ready, Carrasco is maybe one year away, and Cardenas is the furthest away but projects to be a very good hitting 2B.

You said it DJ, there isnt a pitcher even close to as good as Johan and that is the hardest position to fill...

Oh and for those looking at his ERA this year and saying he wasnt as good, well he was only on an off-year because of the Indians really (they destroyed him for some fluke reason). Take out the Tribe and he was 15-8 3.03ERA vs everyone else…

To be that dominating, consistently for that long, well it just means no one is even close ~ and he’s still only 28! Can you believe 2 teams had him before he ended up in Min, wonder what Hou and Fla would have looked like if they could turn back the clock...

djskilbr,

Everything is contest. I maintain that given their current contracts, Wright is considerably more valuable to a team then Santana. Of course my analysis would change if Santana is locked-up long term, but there is no guarantee that the Twins would agree to a window allowing the acquiring team to negotiate with Santana.

And I fully believe a team would be willing to do something along the lines of Kershaw & Kemp for Santana. I don't think Buchholz & Ellsbury would happen because both of those players have ML experience. Once player has proven he can succeed at the majors (even if a small sample size), then he becomes much more valuable.

The Phillies proposal is interesting, but I think the Twins would be smart to ask for more elite talent. Carrasco is projected as a #2. A younger Juan Pierre isn't anything to be trading Johan Santana for. I would much rather have Kemp and Kershaw.