A-Rod Aftermath

Yet another reason for the Red Sox not to sign A-Rod... they don't want to give the Yankees their top draft pick. If the Red Sox really want to add $30 million to their payroll for next year, wouldn't it be smarter to spend half on Lowell and the other half on a really good SP?

And I can't really see how the Sox could sign both A-Rod and Lowell, since it'd practically impossible to move Lugo's contract.

Living in the Boston area my whole life, I can honestly say that it's better to be a sports fan in Boston now than at any time over the last 30 years.

And as for Ortiz/Ramirez/A-Rod in the 3-4-5 spots... yes it's a nice idea. And after 2008 the Red Sox can decline Ramirez's 2009 and 2010 options, and having A-Rod to take his place definitely would make that easier. But considering how incredibly well-rounded the current Sox team is, with a ton of great young players starting to make their marks, do the Sox really want to tie up 20% of their payroll for the next 8-10 years?

Remember that over the next 4 years the Sox will have to start paying arbitration to Youkilis, Papelbon, Pedroia, Delcarmen, Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Snyder and Lopez (and possibly Hansen, Cash and some other young guys as well, depnding on how their development goes). That's a lot of money in arbitration raises. The Sox should be looking to scale down their current payroll in anticipation of that, not tacking on tens of millions more.

If/when the Res Sox re-sign Lowell, there's not need to shell out for A-Rod to play short. They just won the World Freakin Series with Lugo at SS, didn't they?

Here's my take on where A-Rod could end up:

Yankees 35% - I think opting out was the first move in a chess game between Boras and Cashman.

Red Sox 25% - They'd love to steal him from the Yankees, they have the cash and a hole at 3B. They'd likely deal Manny, if they got him though.

Angels 20% - They have cash to use and a need at the position, but it wouldn't surprise me if Boras used them to raise the bidding up between the Yankees and Red Sox.

Mets 10% - They have Wright at 3B and No DH. Longshot, but the Mets love to steal the Yankees thunder.

Some other team out of nowhere 5% - some dumb GM may take a play at him for instant contender status.

Dodgers 3% - I don't see them as bidders

Tigers 1 % - They already have a talented contending team, don't need him.

White Sox 1% - White Sox have much bigger needs than A-Rod, but Jerry Reinsdorf just might make an offer.

Cubs 0% - Already have Aramis, are an outfielder and a pitcher away from returning to the playoffs next year, payroll already maxed out for new (non-Cuban) ownership.

Good point, Tim, about Lowell/A-Rod together. Lost in all of this discussion seems to be the fact that A-Rod is actually a pretty darn good shortstop and not a natural third baseman.

Texas would be taking about 10 giant steps back if they pony up for A-Rod again. I seem to have noticed that the Rangers often lack pitching...

henry12theking, are you talking about Jed Lowrie at SS for the Sox? He does seem to have solid potential:

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Jed%20Lowrie&pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=476704

And I think Schilling will be coming off the books a lot sooner than three years from now. If they do re-sign him, it'll be for one year. Don't forget that Varitek is only signed through 2008, and after that he'll be 36. The Sox have a decent-looking C prospect in George Kottaras, but they might need to re-sign Varitek for one more year until Kottaras is ready.

There is even another SS behind Lowrie who is going to be a monster if he fullfills his potential. Get ready to hear this name the next couple of years. Oscar Tejeda http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Oscar%20Tejeda&pos=SS&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=520988. He is compared to Hanley and Soriano but with a better glove.

So here's a question: should the Red Sox be looking to buy out some arbitration years of some of their young guys?

Youkilis has one more year before he's arbitration-eligible. Considering his age (27, 28 when 2008 season starts), the Sox could sign him to a 4-year deal that deals with all his arbitration years, and he'd only be 31 when it ended. They could do something similar with Papelbon, who's at the same place as Youkilis in his eligibility; they could look at a 5-year deal for Pedroia, who has 2 more years before he reaches arbitration.

I'm basing the idea on what the Phillies did in locking up Chase Utley...

I apologize if it's innapropriate to post the link here, but I decided to start a blog to discuss this, because it's just too long to write in a post. I welcome you to visit http://arodanalysis.wordpress.com/

You will see that there are no ads there, this is in no way a money-making venture.

Thanks.

Yeah, that one works. His numbers don't look all that impressive, but it's hart to tell with minor league numbers sometimes. Is that age right? He's *about* to turn 18?

Thats because his name is Tejeda. TejEEEEEEEEEEEEda. People getting his name wrong for the next decade is going to be just as annoying as the 45 million spelling errors that come with Bukholtzs.

Lowrie is a stud, unfortunately with Lugo and his 27 million owed over the next three years, he will putting up great numbers somewhere else. If all goes well Oscar will be ready about the time Lugo's contract expires

With A-Rod opting out, and the Yankees with a gaping void at third base, I don't think the Yankees will let Mike Lowell, the second-best third-baseman on the market, return to their archrival without throwing sacks of cash and several years guaranteed at him first.

I can't envision a scenario playing out where the Red Sox get both. If Mike Lowell is smart, he will wait to see how the A-Rod sweepstakes play out before singing. It seems a safe bet that the Yankees would be prepared to bid irrationally for Mike Lowell's services in order to better their chances at short-term success.

When was the last time a team got the top free agent (albeit at an albatross of a cost) AND the consolation prize?

Jed Lowrie's defense at SS is considered a little suspect - there's talk of him moving to 2nd. He's also not ready for the majors yet. Info on Lowrie:
http://www.soxprospects.com/players/lowrie-jed.htm

If the Sox get A-Rod, they'll almost certainly be playing him at 3B. Finding a taker for Lugo would not be easy after the bad year he had.

They said that Lowrie's defense is improving and he's increased that chances that he'll stay at SS. He's only 23, he's still developing - he's got time to improve his defense.

Interesting though: Lowrie switch-hits, and is equal from both sides. A switch-hitting SS with gap power and above-average speed? that sounds pretty damned good. I like the idea of the Sox hanging onto Lugo for 2008, and seeing if he has a better year to improve his value; if he does, it might be possible to trade Lugo after 2008 for something valuable, and bring up Lowrie. Sticking with Lugo one more year shouldn't hurt them (and they probably couldn't trade him right now anyway).

It will be interesting to watch and see if the Yanks make a silly offer to Lowell just to drive up his price for the Sox.

I know Lowell is a great guy but if the Sox offer him 2/28 and the Yanks go 4/58 it will be hard to just accept the 2/28 deal. The Yanks could easily force the Sox into a 3 or 4 year commitment (rather than 2) and drive up the dollars.

i forgot, keep Kielty, let Hinske go. Get a backup 1st baseman (mb that guy that the sox got for WMP)

Trade Coco and let Ellisbury start. Coco can fetch a 3rd baseman or a starter maybe.