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Dontrelle Willis To Stay?

Take this for what it's worth.  Dontrelle Willis' agent, Matt Sosnick, ran into former Marlins GM Larry Beinfest in the supermarket recently.  Beinfest basically said that the Marlins plan on Willis remaining with the team, so the two sides should plan to discuss a contract as usual.  For Sosnick that means late November talks.

Willis will earn more than $7MM next year, which will probably comprise a fifth or so of the team's payroll.  Most likely new Marlins GM Michael Hill will listen to offers on both Willis and Cabrera and trade one of them.

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Mark my words, i said it first, If the Boston Red Sox do not pick up mike lowell or god for bid Alex Rodriguez, then we will trade Coco Crisp and two pitching prospects for Miggy Cabrera. They dont want to trade Willis because the marlins have nothing really to trade with him yet, he needs to make a comeback. Marlins and Sox have a good relationship and we have had pretty good trades in the past (Rameriz for Beckett/Lowell) we both made out good on that deal. I think we will end up with Miggy, one way or the other

there is almost no way that the marlins accept coco crisp when they could ask for jacoby ellsbury, which obviously wouldnt be uncalled for for a player like miggy cabrera.

i say dontrelle ends up a mariner for clement and/or balantin and a pitcher.

Dontrelle needs a change of scenery and a new picthing coach to erase all the crap the Marlins did to him to slow down his delivery. The longer he stays with the Fish, the more he's going to struggle, which is sad because he's shown he can be good and he's a great guy to ahve on your team.

i say dontrelle ends up a mariner for clement and/or balantin and a pitcher.

Posted by: anthoneytheghost | October 22, 2007 at 10:48 AM

sounds about right

If the fish dont move him in the offseason they will move him mid-season instead.

They are bringing back Mark Wiley as pitching coach (interviewing this week but most believe the job is his). So look for him to help fix up Willis and his delivery. Raise the value of Willis if he has a great start of the year then cash in mid-season trading him to a contender.

As for Cabrera there is no chance the Red Sox get him with a trade like that LOL. They dont even match the fish needs.


Martin, Kemp, Billingsley for Cabrera sounds a little bit better.

What's interesting is that the Marlin's are not close to making a run for it and it might not be surprising if both miggy and willis go for the right deals. There is always a dearth of starting pitching and after Arod and Lowell, no third basemen on the market. Marlins could clean up big time with a lot of prospects...their fans on the other hand will probably become more disgruntled than ever.

Trading Willis now is stupid, isn't it? His value can't get much lower, but I supposed there's a chance he could rebound in the 1st half.

I think (hope?) Seattle has learned from the Horacio Ramirez fiasco not to trade for overrated NL starting pitchers.

If they can get two top prospects now they should pull the trigger immediately. And the GM who acquires Willis should be fired.

And, I don't think the Marlins are that far off from making a run. There's no way the rotation can be as bad as last year's, even if Willis continues to suck.

The bullpen is very decent, if they get a CF they have the makings of a pretty good offense.

Combine that with the fact that no team in the east is particularly impressive, and they certainly have a shot.

Crisp looks like a good target - he doesn't make that much money, and probably won't be too expensive in terms of prospects.

Other options off the top of my head:

Brett Gardner, Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Endy Chavez, Dave Roberts, Gabe Gross, Tony Gwynn, Bill Hall, Corey Hart, Chris Burke, Angel Pagan, Michael Bourn, Jason Lane, Tike Redman, Kenny Lofton, Joey Gathright, Reggie Willits, Johnny Damon, Rocco Baldelli, Marlon Byrd, David Murphy.


There are a lot out there that are appealing in different ways - obviously some are better than others, some are more likely than others, some will require more in trade. But really this is one of the only pieces they're missing - then they can just hope the other players (particularly the rotation) perform well, and if not, trade off Cabrera/Willis at midseason.

Other things to consider:

1. According to the Marlins Willis and Miguel Cabrera have never been shopped around. Always the rumors of them being traded comes from NY mostly for press

2. They just got authorized 50 million dollars to fill up the funding gap for the new stadium. They are working on the final deal. Which will mean that they will have the finances (according to past forbes articles) to be able to lock up Miggy long term easily.

3. They have been linked to alot of rumors down here from bonds to arod. It will be interesting to see what happens. If nothing ever comes for a good CF, I could see them even pulling up Andino for SS and Hanley into CF, if Andino remembers how to play defense.


As for Crisp no thanks for that money (10 million next 2 years and 2 million buyout) for a sub 700 OPS player

"the bullpen is very decent"

The marlins bullpen sucks a$$. What are you talking about??

thats why miggy for crisp/breslow/corey would be a good deal for the red sox/marlins, replace one of the relievers for a really good starter or a burn out like David Pauley and that deal is done. Beside, they need a center fielder just as bad as they need a good bullpen

ps. i wouldnt call Pauley a burnout, bad choice of words, hes more like Gabbard was so thats a good deal too

"the bullpen is very decent"

The marlins bullpen sucks a$$. What are you talking about??

Posted by: themfightnwords | October 22, 2007 at 02:27 PM

They had a 4.02 ERA, I don't see how that "sucks ass". It's not amazing but it's also not bottom tier. And it should be even better next year as more young arms come up and hopefully health to those coming back from injury (Owens, Kensing, Pinto, ect). The one thing the Marlin's don't need to worry about is bullpen depth.

The Marlins were 6th in runs last year, and should again as the young players improve (Jumped from 8th to 6th from 2006>2007 with a 32 run increase). The Rotation was 5th best in all of baseball in 2006, dropped to dead last in 2007 thanks to having a injury depleted rotation. With the likes of Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco coming back, plus likely seeing Volstad and maybe Gaby sometime next year, the rotation is in a LOT better shape than last year.

The marlins bullpen does not suck. There filled with young 100mph throwers and Crafty lefty.

That's a lot of "ifs" for the Marlins to become a top tier team. Their injured pitchers suffered through major surgeries. You never know how a guy like Sanchez will turn out.

The Marlins were also healthy and productive from their big two, Ramirez and Cabrera. While both have a history of being injury free and playing at high levels, it's hard to count on that going forward. Not much chance either can do better in 08 (they are both tremendous players) but there is a risk that they could get nailed by the injury bug.

My point is, in order for the Marlins to be competitive they will need to have everything fall their way. Plus, they will need things to go bad for the Mets, Phillies, and Braves - all of which could win 95 games next year.

The only "if" is the rotation, really. But i agree that that is a major if. I just think the "The Marlins are no where close to contention" talk is kinda out of place. This isn't the Orioles who are filled with veterans in the toughest division in baseball. This is a team filled with a lot of young, talented players in a weak division, who's main problem this year was injuries to the pitching staff.

Either way, the Marlins aren't likely to have a rotation of two AAA pitchers, two underperforming pitchers, and a bad #5 pitcher (Who was the team's "ace" with a 5.42 ERA [Kim]) like they did this year. I'm not really talking about them being a top tier team, but it doesn't take much to be a competive team in the NL. They were a .500 team up to the allstar break with a bandaged rotation. Afterwards, when the rotation completely went down the drain, they went 29-44. It's very unlikely that next year the Marlins have a rotation like they did in the second half. Likely they will have one like the did in the first half, and have be a ~.500 team, which is enough to be competitive in the wild card. Optimistically, they'll have a good staff, and be a good team.

Also, just saying, although I expect a drop off in Ramirez, I expect Cabrera to be better next year. His LD% dropped nearly 4 percent in 2007 then it was in 2005 and 2006, and his power will continue to increase.

"Mark my words, i said it first, If the Boston Red Sox do not pick up mike lowell or god for bid Alex Rodriguez, then we will trade Coco Crisp and two pitching prospects for Miggy Cabrera"

Yes, god forbid the best team in baseball signs the best player in baseball. That would just be awful. Good job. Why would the Marlins want Coco Crisp? He is making a lot more money then the fish are willing to pay marginal players. Ellsbury, Buchholz, and another young pitcher would have to go to Fla. It would be like the Beckett trade. Maybe the fish would send Willis back just to get rid of his contract.

"Martin, Kemp, Billingsley for Cabrera sounds a little bit better."

Yes, that isnt even remotely absurd, not even a little bit.

"3. They have been linked to alot of rumors down here from bonds to arod. It will be interesting to see what happens. If nothing ever comes for a good CF, I could see them even pulling up Andino for SS and Hanley into CF, if Andino remembers how to play defense."

It is also interesting how somehow the rumors that Miggy and Willis being shopped is nothing but NY media lies, but the rumors that the Fish are working on the "final deal" for a stadium, and the rumors about Bonds and A-Rod are legit and should be considered.

"thats why miggy for crisp/breslow/corey would be a good deal for the red sox/marlins, replace one of the relievers for a really good starter or a burn out like David Pauley and that deal is done. Beside, they need a center fielder just as bad as they need a good bullpen"

Yes, and contrary to what you may want to believe, other teams also have vary average centerfielders and average relievers. Why dont the Marlins trade Miggy to Colorado for Willie Taveras, Matt Herges, and Latroy Hawkins?

"That's a lot of "ifs" for the Marlins to become a top tier team. Their injured pitchers suffered through major surgeries. You never know how a guy like Sanchez will turn out.

The Marlins were also healthy and productive from their big two, Ramirez and Cabrera. While both have a history of being injury free and playing at high levels, it's hard to count on that going forward. Not much chance either can do better in 08 (they are both tremendous players) but there is a risk that they could get nailed by the injury bug.

My point is, in order for the Marlins to be competitive they will need to have everything fall their way. Plus, they will need things to go bad for the Mets, Phillies, and Braves - all of which could win 95 games next year."

Exactly. You cant say that all the pitchers will be better and healthy but none of the hitters will get hurt or regress. Cabrera and Ramirez both put up MVP type numbers. Uggla had over 80 extra base hits. Willingham had a huge season. Josh Johnson is out til atleast the break, no? Nolasco is okay, not great and who knows now coming off a missed season. Same with Sanchez, great stuff, but irratic, and coming off a big injury. Olsen has potential, but he is crazy. There are tons of questionmarks all over for the fish. They could put it all together and make the playoffs... or they could finish in last place.

Again, not saying that Anibal and Nolasco and the like will be coming out swining next year.

I really don't think people understand just how bad the Marlins rotation was post-break. They head a combined post-All Star ERA of 6.68.

Before the all-star break, when they were a ~.500 team, they had a cumulative ERA of 4.76 (still below league average). And while yes this was with J.J., Nolasco, and Anibal for a few starts...they were all horrible in those starts so they negatively impact that number (Combined ERA of 5.76). So it's not like I'm basing my assumptions of having Anibal, Nolasco, and such.

Also just a heads up, J.J. is out all of 2008, won't be back until '09.

""thats why miggy for crisp/breslow/corey...
"

that is easily the worst, most lopsided simply delusional trade I have ever seen posted anywhere

I don't see much reason at all for the Florida offense to be worse.

I don't think any hitter other than Ramirez played over his head. My money's on Ramirez to regress, because you'd be a fool to bet on him keeping that up, but you never know.

Cabrera did exactly what he's done for his whole career.

Willingham had a huge season? He had basically the same season as 2006.

Uggla's season wasn't great by any means.

Jacobs and Hermida were injured for portions of the year.

I don't know what they'll do at catcher, but despite the power, Olivo was pretty bad this season. There's no reason to expect anything worse there.

CF has to get better too. And anyone who wouldn't pay $5M a year for Crisp is a fool.

Others have commented on the bullpen and the rotation.

My point is not that their the favorite or anything, but they're not that far from contending. Last year's luck with the rotation was horribly bad.

Why the hell is anybody who wouldnt pay 5M for Cococ Crisp a fool? The marlins payroll is like onyl 30 mil to behing with. Nobody on their entire roster makes more then 5 mil besides Miggy an Willis. I think it is ridiculous to pay Crisp more then De Aza, Uggla, Jacobs, Hermida, Amazega, Ross, Willingham, Remirez, and Gregg make combined. Its a good idea. Pay more for your average CF with no stick and an extremely overated glove then for your LF, RF, 1B, 2B, SS, CP combined.

Gee, in that case isn't it bit ridiculous for the Mets to be paying Delgado more than Pelfrey, Milledge, Humber, Gomez, Heilman, Feliciano, Sanchez, Smith, Perez, Wright, and Reyes combined?

Come on, I know you understand baseball economics - that was a stupid comment. The salaries of young players with limited service time are completely irrelevant here. Average veterans are going to make more than all of your stud youngsters, that's just the way baseball's salary structure works and I know you know that.

Crisp is a superb defensive CF with some offensive potential. If you want to provide evidence for him being overrated defensively, I'm all ears (seriously, all I've ever heard is that he's amazing, possibly the best, but I could definitely be wrong).

Offensively he has been bad the past 2 years, but he was good the 2 before that, and is not old. His walk rate is trending in the right direction. He has offensive skills that don't go away (and that he has exhibited before). He's a good basestealer (and I realize the limited value of that, but it's worth something), and even in 2007 didn't kill the sox with his OBP. It's better than that of many starting CF making a lot more money.

Tell me some better players at a better price please? $5M for Crisp is a bargain.

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