Odds and Ends

More random rumors and reading material!

• Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver discusses Ryan Braun's undeniably terrible defense at third base, suggesting some interesting trade and signing permutations to get him into right field.  Also note that Kevin Kouzmanoff is a butcher at third; maybe the Friars will be in the market for Mike Lowell this winter (a player they've expressed interest in in the past).
• Awesome headline for this Garrett Atkins article.  Steve King discusses how the Phillies would be a fine fit for a trade, throwing the Dodgers, Twins, Angels, and Astros into the mix as well.  Note that Atkins has a career line of .269/.344/.437 on the road and .336/.399/.528 at Coors.
• Sid Hartman is hearing that Walt Jocketty could end up in Baltimore.
• The Daily Herald's Scot Gregor proposes some kind of Jon Garland for Bill Hall swap, or even a Carl Crawford acquisition by the White Sox.  I don't think the Sox and Rays match up too well for that. 
• I thought he'd stay, but Joe Torre has turned down a one-year, $5MM offer from the Yankees.  The proposal had another $3MM in incentives and a vesting option for 2009 if the Yanks won the '08 World Series.
• It's Hiroshima or MLB for Hiroki Kuroda.  Apparently the Ms already have their eye on him.  Paul Sullivan also said recently that the Cubs will be in the mix.

Comments

[Derrick]

Torre signed an 1 year extension with a option.

[zs190]

Sure seems like Joe is staying.

Very interesting number crunch on just how bad Braun's defense is, most of us semi-casual fans would not have imagined that the defense was so bad that estimated 75% of his offensive value (I imagine over an average 3B in NL) is erased by atrocious defense. On a related note, the defense metrics seem to suggest Garrett Atkins is really bad at 3B, I wonder if it really is wise for people needing 3B to trade for him when he might need to be moved to 1B. Even more given his drastic splits for home/road.

[no funny hats]

I don't really have any idea of who I'd be comfortable with at third for the phils.

[Tim Dierkes]

Agreed...might be time to sell high on Atkins.

[Derrick]

***false report***

he denied the offer the yankees made. They said they will be looking for a new manager.

sry damn espn always has false reports

[zs190]

I'm confused by this turn of events. Joe always loved coaching the team and the Yankees, who always spend a lot, somehow lowballed him by a couple million.

I wonder if it's the front office's gesture to do this to save face in public with an agreement with Torre to turn it down.

[CUBS=NOTHING]

how about White Sox get Crawford and the d-rays get Masset-Aardsma-haeger. What do you guys think?

[BrianTX]

"I wonder if it's the front office's gesture to do this to save face in public with an agreement with Torre to turn it down."

That's exactly what it is.

[cubbyrick]

Masset-Aardsma-haeger are 3 losers. No way that gets done.

[nrmax88]

They told Joe they wanted him to take a paycut. They wanted to give him 5 mil gaurunteed (instead of 7 I think), with 1 million dollars for each round of the post season that they win. So can be a total of 8 mil with an option for 09. Joe told them to eFF off.

[nrmax88]

"I wonder if it's the front office's gesture to do this to save face in public with an agreement with Torre to turn it down. "

Haha yeah but what if Torre just came onto the air and was like I am glad to announce that I accept the Yankees offer and will be returning next year. Then the front office would have its hands pretty much tied.

[zs190]

Does this seem like something Joe would do, though? I just feel like this is really out of character even though Joe has every right to do it.

[zs190]

Come on, anybody knows that Joe Torre is a class act individual, whether you like the Yankees or not, he would never do something like that.

[themfightnwords]

Good for Joe. The Yankees have been treating him like sh*t for the past few years despite what he has done for them. I wanted him to just say "f-ck you". They may pay a steep price for their treatment of Torre in the form of Pettite, Posada, and Mo.

[zs190]

Actually, I think this move will help the Yankees keep all of them. Just firing Joe would have made it hard on everybody but to do it this way and make Joe look good on his way out, it'll appease the FAs and I think all 3 will stay as a result.

[UCSDPadsFan]

Really? Getting rid of Kouz (who is cheap and we control a while) for Lowell (who is expensive)? Why would we block our top propsect Headly (who might switch to LF if Kouz doesn't) with an expensive free agent when we need that money for a quality CF and a #4 pitcher? Well I guess anyone can post a random rumor...

[J.L.]

Yeah if anything Kouz will move to LF because I assume Headly's defense is better. Lowell would seriously decline in PetCo. Bad idea.

When is Atkins a FA? He would bring in a pretty nice haul regardless, especially if he goes home to SoCal where he'd likely resign. That being said I don't think they'll be breaking up the Rockies just yet.

[kab21]

Atkins will be in arbitration for the next 3 years. Free agent after 2010.

I think Lowell and Atkins are both overrated offensively and will see their numbers decline if they leave BOS/COL respectively. Lowell is great defensively, but I don't think it would be a good idea for any team to sign him to 10+M/yr multi-year contract this offseason.

[WestCoastBias]

Mike Lowell is nowhere near the Padres radar. The depth there is too solid for them to splurge on Lowell when they need a CF and 1-2 SP's. Lane, Germano & Cassell are the internal options there as opposed to the internal options of Kouz & Headley at 3B. It's obvious where the money will go.

[themfightnwords]

"I think Lowell and Atkins are both overrated offensively and will see their numbers decline if they leave BOS/COL."

Lowell had a career year but it had nothing to do with the hitting environment. Fenway Park is pretty neutral.

[bjsguess]

Torre is a class act. The Yanks will miss him.

Agree on Atkins and Lowell. Any team not playing in a small ballpark will be disappointed when both guys produce at close to their road splits.

[AJ]

With all due respect to Nate Silver, Matthew LaPorta has exactly 88 AB's above Rookie ball, and those were in Low-A. There is no way he could be considered an option for Opening Day '08. I do like the idea of moving Hall (who was a noticeable inclusion on Silver's list of worst defensive showings) back to the IF, and using Hart in CF. That could potentially work to improve 2 defensive positions without a personnel change.

One more word about LaPorta, though ... I was able to see him play twice this year, and he looks like he could be Ryan Braun II (sans speed). I mentioned that he only had 88 AB's in Single-A, but I didn't mention that he had 10 HR's in that time. It never ends for the Brewers, does it? He definitely looks good enough to keep the Brewers from overreacting and trading for a risky play like Crede, or overspending for a guys career year like Lowell.

Speaking of Lowell, I agree strongly that he does not fit in San Diego at all. I don't see him playing outside of the Northeast corner, though. Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox (in reverse order, depending on A-Rod).

[kab21]

Lowell was .993 OPS home and .767 OPS away. Those are pretty significant splits.

[themfightnwords]

It hardly proves that he was aided by Fenway Park. Some players are just much better at home. Camden Yards isnt a launching pad, but Ramon Hernandez' splits in 2006 were a .959 OPS @ home and a .679 OPS on the road.

[92-93]

Camden Yards ISN'T a launching pad?!?! Fenway is neutral?!?! What on earth are you talking about.

[Ripwa]

Have you ever watched Lowell play at Fenway? 1/2 of his hits would be outs if not for the monster. The guy is a deep pull hitter, how on earth could Fenway not help him?

[nrmax88]

"Lowell had a career year but it had nothing to do with the hitting environment. Fenway Park is pretty neutral."

Let me first say I agree with your whole post on Joe Torre. Screw the Yankees, they cant find somebody to come in and have that same kind of relationships he has with his team and find a guy they will respect like they respected Joe. Not anybody can manage a team where almost everybody is making more then 10 mil a year and it is all ego's everywhere. Don Mattingly? Please.

Onto the Lowell thing though, while fenway is kind of neutral, watcing Lowell play for a while in Fla, he is a dead pull hitter. This year he starting hitting to the opposite field more, but still, hit pull style that netted him lots of fly outs in Fla, got him a lot more doubles and home runs because of the monster. That is why he would probably fit well in Philly.

[bjsguess]

kab21 - exactly, the splits are significant. Throw in the fact that Lowell's career numbers are much more in-line with his away split and that makes me think Fenway really helps him out. I would think a .265/20/90 is what Lowell would hit in a typical park.

He knows this too. He stays in Boston or heads to Philly. No way would he go to SD, LAD, or any other team that plays in a spacious stadium.

[gogopalehose]

Silver and Gregor both proposed the White Sox deal for Billy Hall. Gregor proposed Garland(could match) while Silver proposed Crede(the Brewers may be an underlooked match for Crede- the defense of Braun to Crede is a difference of immense proportions). Hall could improve by moving over to left field and in a good hitter's park that supports his swing-for-the-fences attitude. He's not going to bring any speed, though. At worst, it's a salary dump and a 4th outfielder.

[themfightnwords]

It is true that the monstah helps his average but it takes away homeruns. The year that he hit .236 in FLA he was pulling everything but now he will often stay back to take the ball the other way. The guy has got a sweet swing and he doesnt strike out much. He would have hit .300 in almost every park this year.

[brewersfan729]

I really doubt the Brewers would go for a Hall for Garland swap much less add more.

We don't really have many outfielders right now ready to contribute at a major league level and we don't need any more starting pitching as Sheets, Gallardo, Villanueva and Suppan are all locks for the rotation next year with Parra, Capuano, Bush and Vargas fighting for the 5th spot.

Now for outfielders we have Hart, Hall, Mench (platoon), Gross and Jenkins of course it's unlikely his option is picked up in which case he would leave.

So it's not that I would be opposed to trading Hall and I probably wouldn't this winter because I hate trading players while their value is low. It's just that we don't need any more starting pitchers and we have a shortage of outfielders.

As for Braun I'd move him to RF, Hart to CF, Hall to 3B and platoon Gross and somebody and be done with it.

[gogopalehose]

brewersfan:

They have a bit of cash tp spend, and adding a solid starter like Garland is never a bad thing. Crede would be ideal as a gold glover type that can hit lots of doubles in the Miller Field- Hall is a terrible defender, and moving the position of 3 guys is a dumb move. I would propose a Garland, Crede and cash for Hall and Villanueva swap. A bit of money but it could be worth it if they are going all out. They might want to have Villanueva start, but you can't have such an awful defense and expect to win a lot of games.

[bkoke]

obviously this poster doesnt really follow the padres because they are more than satisfied with kouz at third and if they dont think he can hack it defensivly theyre also high on chase headley so there is 0% chance of them even considering Lowell. kouzmanoffs defensive stats might look bad but if you watched every game like i do you would see for every error he makes he make 2 very good plays. you cant compare him to ryan braun defensivly and comon these guys are rookies.

[gogowhitesox]

Didnt Bill Hall play SS?

[gogopalehose]

Yes but he's poor defensively and has been worse at third base in his career.

[brewersfan729]

"They have a bit of cash tp spend, and adding a solid starter like Garland is never a bad thing."

They also have more pressing needs, like the bullpen where Cordero and Linebrink are free agents which they'll have to spend money on to retain and adding more depth to a pen that is lacking it right now.

"Hall is a terrible defender, and moving the position of 3 guys is a dumb move."

Hall has played 3rd base before and while he's no gold glover there he is tons better than Braun and Hart played a lot of CF last year and did a good job. The only one who would really be learning a "new" position would be Braun.

"I would propose a Garland, Crede and cash for Hall and Villanueva swap."

And then the Brewers hang up the phone. Why would the Brewers trade away a young starting pitcher making the minimum who has been great as a starter in the big leagues although it's still a small sample for a guy who is going to give you a 4 ERA which is nice but makes $12 million and is going to be a free agent after next season? And then trade Hall after a down year for Crede who may be good on defense but completely sucks on offense? Yeah right that's atrocious for Milwaukee.

"They might want to have Villanueva start, but you can't have such an awful defense and expect to win a lot of games."

Which is why I proposed what I did. It improved infield defense and outfield defense without giving up any assets and not spending any money unnecessarily.

[gogopalehose]

Your proposal would make the defense go from terrible to slightly less terrible...

[brewersfan729]

Not really.

Hall>>>>>>Braun at 3rd
Hart>>>>>>Hall in CF
Braun if he started now could probably equal Hart in RF as he has good range and a strong arm.

So that dramatically improves defense on the infield and in the outfield. I'm not saying any of them would be gold glove caliber but it's a noticeable improvement to anybody who has watched the Brewers.

[gogopalehose]

If you look at the defensive stats(range factor and fielding %) Hart and Hall are equal in CF. That doesn't say a lot, but it isn't a huge improvement. You have Hall playing a position he's awful at(though not Braun awful) after playing CF a whole year. You just don't move a guy to a position he's not good at after asking him to move to a position he's estranged to. Also, I'm not sure about the Gross/Mench platoon. It would probably be above average if not very good but it seems like they could get better production somewhere. I don't know but somewhere someone has to leave or take a lesser role.

[brewersfan729]

"That doesn't say a lot, but it isn't a huge improvement."

Actually yes it is. I've watched both Hall and Hart play CF a lot and Hart is much, much better than Hall. Better range, better angles, better breaks. I don't really care about range factor or fielding % as they're very flawed stats.

Hell if you want to go off range factor then Brady Clark was the best defensive CF in the NL in 2005 and we all know that isn't the case.

And I'm sure Hall probably doesn't want to move and I'm sure the Brewers probably don't want to keep moving his position around but I also don't think they expected Braun to be as bad as he was at 3rd. I'm sure he'd go back there and again you keep saying he's terrible there, he's not he's probably average to slightly below average which is a HUGE improvement over Braun.

The only thing the Brewers need to do is the defensive switches that I suggested and sign/keep a couple of reliable bullpen arms and they'll be fine.

[bjsguess]

Not sure "completely sucks" is fair description of Crede's offensive skills. Guy projects to be a solid .275/25/90 guy. Essentially what people can expect from Mike Lowell if he leaves Boston.

With Hall it's tricky. If it is the 2006 version then you have a solid offensive contributor. If it's 2007, well then, you're going to have a rough year.

I like Hall. Hope that 2006 is more indicative of what he will do in the future.

[nrmax88]

I have seen this movie before. White sox fan comes on here proposing Garland and Crede (or other trash)for other teams young, cheap talent (hall and Villanueva). Garland is just not anything above average. His 12 million dollar contract makes it worse. Villanueva might a better option then him right now, he certainly has loads more upside at a fraction of the price. Palehose you talk about how moving guys positions is a dumb idea, yet you want to trade Crede to Milwaukee. To do what? Move Braun to the OF and Hart to centerfield? You are still moving around positions. The way I look at it is, Hall as atleast as much value as Crede. Villanueva has much more value then Garland. No deal.

[brewersfan729]

"Not sure "completely sucks" is fair description of Crede's offensive skills. Guy projects to be a solid .275/25/90 guy."

No I stand by my completely sucks description. His best year he posted an .829 OPS, he's never walked 40 times in a season and his career line is .259/.305/.446/.751 Doug Melvin also said he wants the team to improve its OBP so adding Crede makes that problem even worse which may negate any defensive value he may hold to the Brewers.

[nrmax88]

I actually think Palehose is upset because if you compare the Sox to the Brewers position for position, the Sox really dont have an advantage everywhere. He calls Braun awful at third, but you are sitting there with Joe Crede. Bill Hall is "awful", but he is better then Jerry Owens.

Estrada>AJ
Fielder > Konerko
Weekes > Whoever the hell the WS 2B is.
Hardy > Uribe
Braun > Crede
A paber bag > Erstad
Hall > Podsednik/ Owen
Hart > Dye

I understand the whitesox suck and youre upset, but dont go trashing Milwaukees whole roster just because Brewerfan didnt buy into you weak ass trade proposal.

[brewersfan729]

Eh I don't agree with everything you said. Estrada is infuriating to watch I'd take Pierzynski over him anyday. No plate discipline to go along with horrible defense and a pathetic CS%.

And if Dye becomes the player he was in 2006 I'd take him over Hart as much as it hurts to say that because Hart is my favorite Brewer.

[WSO5]

WOW- your Brewers are so stacked with awesome players you'd think they would have won more than 83 games in the WORST division in baseball.

[gogopalehose]

Wow, nrmax proving yet again he is the dumbest poster on the site. Point out WHERE I said the Brewers players were trash. I just said they were terrible defensively and could seriously use an upgrade. Let me play the team card on you since you think it's so relevant- dont be bitter because your Mets had the biggest September choke in history.

[FyreKnight]

Lowell or Atkins playing in Philly would not hurt either of their numbers as its the 2nd most hitter friendly park in all of baseball!

Lowell with his gold glove type 3B style would be my 1st choice, as we would not have to trade for him, and get a great bat with a great glove.

Lowell's numbers at CBP are also well known and proven he hits great there, not sure what Atkins stats are there, but I am sure he'd produce fine as well there.

As explosive the Phillies bats are, we still need a power hitting Righty to protect Howard and Utley with Rowand sure to leave for the big bucks.

That said, we still need to replace Rowand in the OF - the Phils could go after another CF or put Victorino there and go after a RF with pop.

Bourne just doesn't do it for me....

[MADness]

Atkins would definitely provide the right-handed protection for the Phillies line-up.

He would have a monster year there. He hits to all fields when he is hitting well but seems to have become more focused on trying to hit home-runs as he seemed to hit a TON of really long fly-balls this year. At Citizen's Bank a lot of those would have been home-runs. I wouldn't be surprised to see Atkins put up noticeably better numbers in Philly than he has in Denver.