Red Sox To Stop At Two Years For Lowell

The Boston Globe's Jackie MacMullan spoke to a Red Sox source who said the team would "balk at offering Mike Lowell anything more than a two-year deal."  Lowell is expected to get $10-12MM annually.

Since Lowell might be able to get four years guaranteed on the open market, it would be a large sacrifice to accept just two.  For what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system expects Lowell to be worth $28.4MM over the next four years, $23MM over the next three, and $17.3MM over the 2008-09 period.  However PECOTA did project Lowell to hit .273/.333/.441 this year while he actually hit .324/.378/.501. 

Lowell's awful 2005 looks like an aberration, but it still seems to scare the Red Sox.  I imagine they'd guarantee three years if Lowell had been decent in '05. 

Comments

[zs190]

Mike Lowell is 33(34 before start of season), I can see this being his last chance at a decent contract. If he can get 4 years(with reasonably similar money), I expect him to take it. I can understand Red Sox concern but it's probably hard for them to keep him without at least offering a conditional 3rd year.

[Mr_Punch]

I wonder what the Red Sox do if they lose out on Lowell and Arod. They don't have any really promising options at 3rd or 1st (if Youk moves back to 3rd). I'd hate to see a 2008 roster without a power bat at either corner.

[zs190]

I can see maybe Jed Lowrie at 3B, but he's not a power bat either, the other option is Youk at 3B and Carter at 1B, most people think Carter is more a AAAA player though.

[zs190]

There is also Garrett Atkins on the trade market.

[jatorres]

Anybody remember the Rangers balking at Beckett/Lowell for John Danks & Hank Blalock?

[bravesbeast]

No, jatorres, no one remembers that trade because that was not even close to being to discussed, but nice try.

Anywho, is it not kinda ironic that the rockies and bosox are both in the final three teams and baseball, and they were the ones discussing a Todd Helton trade this winter. The thing that constantly kept the deal from happening, mike lowell and his contract. I wonder how things would have worked out had that trade went down?

[Tim Dierkes]

That trade was more than discussed, it was near complete.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2005/11/beckett_and_low.html

Type Josh Beckett into the search box on the sidebar, read everything.

[Tim Dierkes]

Here's another:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2005/11/beckett_trade_n.html

[bravesbeast]

ummm, well then, i guess i overlooked this trade, tim and torres, my sincerest apologies, ill be the one to admit i was ignorant on this occasion

[JakeOD21]

It doesn't surprise me that the Red Sox don't want to give that much money/years to Lowell. I'm holding out hope that he'll take the Sox offer and stay, maybe the Sox could add a third year option at least.

I have a feeling Theo Epstein won't let the Red Sox go after A-Rod, nor should they. I think the Sox will make a play for Atkins if Lowell leaves. I'd like to see them involve Coco+prospect(s) to get a young third baseman like Atkins or even Blalock, whose price tag would be much lower than Atkins.

[Guitar Hero]

Good luck with that Red Sox. He could get 5/55 pretty easily...the FA market just sucks for Infield this year.

[anthoneytheghost]

im a mike lowell fan, but i dont mind seeing him go. its just like johnny damon or bill mueller, one of my all time favorite sox, but you cant let nostalgia make you sign a bad contract. youk at third adam dunn or haverhill MA native carlos pena at first.

[Mr_Punch]

Ah yes, Carlos Pena. Why can't the Red Sox get players like that? :)

[anthoneytheghost]

lol, yeah. well, we can have him now for about ten times what he was making before. also, its not a guarantee which carlos pena will show up to spring training, the 40 hr guy, or the non-roster invite guy.

[anthoneytheghost]

sorry, for some reason i thought pena was a free agent. my bad.

[ErroRod1985]

I see Lowell in a Red Sox jersey no matter what the sources say. He's a quality guy, who, even when he's not hitting, is playing gold glove defense. If you can give Julio Lugo a 4 year deal worth 9 million a year, you can go atleast three years with Lowell at 11-12 million a year. I'd be deeply disappointed in Epstein if Lowell plays elsewhere next season.

[scatterbrian]

Considering Lowell hit something like his 95th percentile in PECOTA, 2005 should probably be ignored in his negotiations. He should be offered 3 years with a team option.

If they don't want to do that, they should move Youk to 3B, since it's probably easier right now to fill 1B than 3B.

I suspect if the Sox don't offer him a deal the Yankees will.

[Not Joe Morgan]

BABIP ...

[Andrew Cabiness]

Doesn't Boston have 4 OF right now: Manny, Crisp, Drew, and Ellsbury? Can't they move one of them to 1B?

[anthoneytheghost]

i cant imagine any of those guys at first. coco could possibly be moved FOR a 1b though. he seems like a dusty baker type player...the reds were said to have interest in torii hunter, they could be looking.

[Larsen101]

lol we could move Manny to 1b because then we could move Mannys slow rear end out of the OF but then how bad do u guys think he would get eatin alive at 1b?

[anthoneytheghost]

i cant imagine he has the attention span for 1b.

[ErroRod1985]

Manny couldn't handle Becketts 97 mph fastball throw to first base...heck, Youkillis had to use two hands. They have all the money in the world, and the resources to get deals done so I'm sure somehow things will fill in during the offseason.

[dudetheplayer]

is david ortiz just a completely incapable 1st baseman?

[Garrett]

No way redsox can unload coco crisp to the rockies. Rockies have 3 CF's Willy Taveras, Corey Sullivan, & Ryan Spilborghs @ near min who are all better & the same age or younger than Crisp & about 2.6 mil cheaper. You can look at Col vs Bos CF production/guys 2 ways:

career stats--
Crisp27 ba .280/.obp.329/.slg .409/ ops+94

Taveras 25 .293/.338/.350/78
Sullivan 27 .281/.332/.393/80
Spilborghs 27 .297/.355/.464/103

or you can just look at it for production at the position in '07

Crisp
.268/.330/.382/83ops+ 526 ab's cost about 3.8mil
versus
Sullivan .286/.336/.386/81 140 ab's
Taveras .320/.367/.382/89 372 ab's
Spilborghs .299/.363/.485/111 264 ab's total cost for all three=1.2 mil

Unless Boston is throwing in a significant young pitcher like Papelbon, Bucholz or Lester why does colorado take crisp again?

[kab21]

Manny at 1B would be disastrous. He's never taken infield grounders and he isn't going to try to get any balls in the dirt from the IF'ers.

Ortiz isn't a good option at 1B either since he was having a tough time staying healthy at DH last year. Playing in the field wouldn't help him any.

[Papelboner]

Not an option for any of the OF or Ortiz to play 1B full time. The Sox could (and likely will) move Coco, but I'm not sure it's going to bring back a 1B/3B worthy of starting for us. He's more likely to bring back a couple prospects or a solid bullpen arm. I would like to see the Sox give Lowell a 3 year deal at 12M per with a team option of 14M for the 4th year, with a 2M buyout. Or a 2 year deal at $14M per with a team option for a 3rd year at the same figure with a $2M buyout. This would benefit both sides as Lowell gets at least $30M from the Sox and the Sox don't have to lock him up long term

[Garrett]

Crisp may get a semi-flop guy like Blalock though, but why bother if you can just put youkilis there like somebody else said? Most teams, esp. Boston can't just give third to an unreliable guy like Blalock.

The guy that said the reds would want crisp is on the right track, hopefully my dodgers sell dusty baker on juan pierre first lol

[WestCoastBias]

I'm beating a dead horse by suggesting this so much but it applies again: Chase Headley for Coco Crisp. Headley was the Double A player of the year and is a stud at 3B. Ideally, 2008 would be a development year in AAA but the Red Sox could put him in the 8 hole and let him progress in the Majors. The tools are all there for this guy.

Meanwhile, the Padres fill their whole in CF.

On that same note, you have to wonder if Epstein shops Drew's contract around, that's another player I could see matching up with the Padres.

[Garrett]

i think Paul DePodesta would vomit if his boss did a Headley for Crisp trade with the sox. That is a very un-depo like player there in crisp unless he is somehow off the charts defensively.

But then again, he ain't the GM there.

[chicagobubbleblog]

It's easy to look back o the Beckett/Lowell for Blalok/Danks deal now and say how stupid Texas was not to pull the trigger but if you look back at the time you can mazke the case for not doing it. Loweel looked done (.658 OPS in '05) while Hank look like he was on the rise even considering his '05 season was also a little off from his '04 & '03 seasons. Beckett had yet to get through an entire season and collect 30+ starts and had continuing blister problems (which some have speculated was caused by the Florida humidity which ain't much better in Texas).

[Lidocaine]

Maybe Boston can trade Beckett to Milwaukee for Ryan Braun

[PhillyRocks]

PHILADELPHIA!

[quintjs]

On Lowell, 2005 was bad, the second half of 2006 wasn't good, there are reasons to be cautious.

Considering how no one here would have thought the RS would extend him a year ago, the fact they are talking about it is a move in Lowells direction.

I really love the way Lowell plays the game, and as a RS fan, hope he stays and plays even better than he did this year, but I can understand not giving out a 4 year contract.

[NYTXFAN]

You guys have it all wrong. Being a die hard texas fan and probably everyone else on this site yankees fans, let me break it down for you. Texas didnt balk. The marlins simply used Texas to drive up the price. They were never gonna ship them to texas and in fact we were never even offered a counter bid. AS soon as the marlins realized what the where getting from boston they took it. We never had a true shot at getting beckett. Im sure if we were offered a counter bid talks would have went on but the Marlins took a better first offer from boston. This deal was never close to us regarding what the news or internet said. Ask ADAM J MORRIS over at Lonestarball.com, He'll tell ya the same thing.

[NYTXFAN]

GOD;/ I hate when I read "They didnt pull the trigger", actually, we would have except boston had a better bid. We would have easily thrown in another five good prospects to get them to texas. God everything you people write on here is garbage.

[quintjs]

Texas were never going to get Beckett because they didn't offer nearly enough to get the deal done

NYTXFAN - you talk as if Texas has a stockpile of young high end players, or had in 2005.

Where are these guys?

Anibal Sanchez, Hanely Rameriz, 2 other minor league guys, and taking Mike Lowell is what Boston gave for Beckett and Mota. (Lowell was a negative at that time)

Texas' offer was so far short of that it wasn't worth discussing anymore.

You don't enter into serious talks with someone who offers you Pavano straight up for Santana.

IF i recall, didn't the Marlins announce to all teams that Beckett was available and to make an offer? the best offer wins type thing. I know there were small after talks, but most of the work was that offer, if you were not serious, it didn't matter.

Quantity of prospects doesn't beat quality.

[quintjs]

*my point would have been better served had i correctly spelt 'Ramirez'*

[DentalPlan]

Lowell isn't going to get 5/55. Once again, I'm still waiting for a good answer, why would any other team be interesting in sinking a ton of money into Mike Lowell when he didn't hit away from Fenway? Seriously now, did Jeromy Burnitz get 5/55 after his 2004? Or Vinny Castilla? Of course not. There is nothing convincing about his numbers for another team this year. Whatever team he goes to he's going to be a .770 OPS guy.

He'll be a Type A free agent, the Red Sox would do well to steal Philly's 1st pick and let the Phillies make their worst 3b choice since David Bell.

Last question: Why do people only make these wise-ass Carlos Pena comments in conjunction with the Red Sox? The Tigers and Yankees had him too.

[quintjs]

Most players hit better at home, why shouldn't they, its home, its what they know, home field, home fans.

If Mike Lowell goes to Philly, thats where his home will be, and he will play better there than he would on the road.

This isn't a Fenway Park thing, its a HOME thing.

That same argument DentalPlan could have been used to prove he would be a bust in Boston.

I agree that 5/55 is insane, but Lowell is more deserving that Pierre, so.. you never know.

To me, The RS will get draft picks from Gagne, and possibly Schilling (Boston may not even risk offering him arb - re: Trot Nixon), good ones, I would just keep Lowell on a 2-3year deal, he is still a decent player, hitting well, defense is good, and he will play half his games in Fenway.

And would a move to the NL hurt Lowells hitting? getting way from some of the better pitchers in baseball cannot hurt his production can it?

[DentalPlan]

Mike Lowell's home/road splits aren't even remotely close to normal. They're worse than Coors Fielder splits. He's hitting .373 at Fenway with a .993 OPS, everywhere else it's .276 with a .767. Come on already. It's not a home thing, it's a Fenway Park thing, Fenway Park doesn't help righthanded dead pull hitters? Mike Lowell's going to hit .373 in his new home? Not a chance. His production is all tied up in a batting average way above his career average. He's not a big walks guy, on the road his Isolated Power is around a mediocre (for a 3b) .150, he's getting up there in age, yeah, his defense is good but let's not go crazy here, at these prices you'd be better off signing Pedro Feliz for pennies if you're that enthusiastic about 3b defense. One bad signing does not justify another. This is almost as bad as expecting Bill Mueller to replicate his 2003.

Schilling is not a risk to offer arbitration to, he's one of the best pitcher's on the market. There's no way they won't offer him arbitration. Gagne is a big arbitration risk.

If a team like the Dodgers or Padres signs Lowell for 5/55 it's going to be a nightmare. Just because's Lowell's numbers won't be easy to replace the Red Sox shouldn't be sucked into a significant committment to him.

[quintjs]

ok, obviously Fenway has an effect, it was wrong to say otherwise, but come on, home field, whatever the field has an advantage, as it will if Lowell leaves.

Will Lowell hit .373 in another ballpark? probably not, .353? well that is his current average in Citizens.

DentalPlan, i actually agree with most of what you say. Thought 2-3 years seems ok to me, he will play most his games at Fenway, and does ok outside it.

On Schilling being an arbitration risk, i meant in the Trot Nixon way, that he might accept it and force his way back onto the team, Gagne is going to whomever offers him money, Schilling actually wants to stay.

[quintjs]

The RS didn't offer Trot arbitration last season, so didn't get any draft picks, as there was a risk he accepted it due to lack of interest from other teams, and the Sox would still have him.

And on Lowell's age, he isn't that old, 33, Drew 31, got 5years from the RS.

[quintjs]

at 2-3years, 10-12 million dollars he seems to me to be a good signing for Boston and Philly, but that is about it.

[nrmax88]

" did Jeromy Burnitz get 5/55 after his 2004?"

No, but GMJ and Juan Pierre came pretty close last year. It is a whole new market. It only takes one team willing to pay. The Phillies could offer something like 4/42 and probably get similar production to his 07 numbers.

[nrmax88]

"This isn't a Fenway Park thing, its a HOME thing."

No, it is a Fenway thing, and a mosnter thing. He has become better at using all fields, but still. Lowell is for the most part a dead pull, flyball hitter. Lots of doubles and homeruns off and over the monster are routine fly outs elsewhere. You can say the same thing about Little League field in Philly though.

[04Forever]

if the sox dont bag lowell or arod, which im sure lowell will be bagged, but if for some reason he isnt, its going to be a trade for miggy from the marlins. its the only thing that makes sense

[anthoneytheghost]

miggy would take ellsbury and lester or buchholz and maybe more. as much as id love to see miguel cabrerra (and i wouldnt necesarily not do that trade)in a sox uniform, i dont see that happening.

[bjsguess]

If you look at Lowell's home/road splits you will see that his road splits are similar to his career numbers. Lowell is absolutely a product of the Green Monster. That's not knocking the guy, just pointing out that he is taking advantage of the park he plays in.

The only concern is if he goes to another team. He'll be a fine 3B - just don't expect him to put up the same stats.

[Garrett]

Great defense.Doesn't get hurt.Hits@fenway. Keeps his mouth shut 2 press. Considered a nice guy by teammates.What's not to like? A third year wouldn't kill the sox for this guy.
Drawing lines in the sand in press statements doesn't work so well against likeable people. See Yankees/Joe Torre firing.

Third baseman are always in short supply. They should go after ARod 1st, but keeping Lowell around 3/$36 or 3/$34 with a team option for a 4th yr at 10 mil as plan B or C for just isn't a big deal.
If the front office really thinks that way they're just telling him they don't want him. Could mean they are just that confident about ARod or other superior options. Who knows?

[ErroRod1985]

If the Red Sox want to win, and make the playoffs, and not bow out every first round, then why throw 300 million at AROD? He sucks in the postseason. He's an amazing hitter for 162 games, then looks like Julio Lugo in the playoffs. We already have JULIO LUGO, we don't need a second coming of him. Sign Lowell, or move Youk and find a first baseman, but don't throw 30 million at that meathead just to watch him flame out every postseason.

[nrmax88]

"If the Red Sox want to win, and make the playoffs, and not bow out every first round, then why throw 300 million at AROD? He sucks in the postseason. He's an amazing hitter for 162 games, then looks like Julio Lugo in the playoffs. We already have JULIO LUGO, we don't need a second coming of him. Sign Lowell, or move Youk and find a first baseman, but don't throw 30 million at that meathead just to watch him flame out every postseason. "

You're a fucking idiot.

[nrmax88]

With all due respect of course.