Santana Would Consider Waiving No-Trade Rights

Johan Santana gets a full no-trade clause for 2008 if he finishes top three in the Cy Young voting this year.  In 2007 Santana was fifth in VORP and doesn't even crack the top ten in ESPN's Cy Predictor.  Though I have to question the validity of any tool that puts Joe Borowski ninth.

Anyway, mostly because of the Twins missing the playoffs, it's safe to say that Santana will not finish in the top three.  Instead, he gets to choose 12 teams he cannot be traded to.  As Nat Boyle recently noted, Santana could theoretically strategically select the 12 teams most likely to trade for him if he really wanted to stay in Minnesota for one more season.

That doesn't seem likely, however.  Based on this article from La Velle E. Neal III, Santana would likely give up his no-trade protection if A) the acquiring team was a contender and B) he was compensated $1-2MM to give up his rights.

All we've really seen so far is a questionable Matt Kemp/Clayton Kershaw rumor that doesn't make it past my reality checker.  We've also got Charley Walters saying there's "little doubt" the Mets will pursue Santana, for what that's worth.  Buster Olney tosses out a Jose Reyes/Carlos Gomez/Mike Pelfrey for Santana and Jason Bartlett proposal.  It doesn't sound like any true trade discussions have leaked to the press yet.  I wouldn't expect things to get going until the Winter Meetings December 3-6 in Nashville. 

Comments

[mymrbig]

Tim,

Why doesn't Kemp/Kershaw pass your reality checker?

I can't see the Twins accepting too much less than that, nor a (sane) team offering much more. Kershaw is a great prospect, but no prospect is a guarantee. Kemp is also very good, but he has his problems (walk, what is a walk?).

I don't know if I would want to make the trade if I were either team. That said, I think it is a pretty fair offer. If I was the Dodgers, I might want to sub my 2nd best pitching prospect for Kershaw, just because Kemp has already proven himself in the majors.

[Tim Dierkes]

Didn't originate from anyone who has proven to have sources in the past.

[moebarguy]

I think a Lastings, Heilman, Pelfrey, and Carp deal would get it done.

[Derrick]

No way Lastings, Heilman, Pelfrey, and Carp deal would get it done.
I would imagine a John Maine, Gomez, Fernando for Johan but Pelfrey is extremely overrated.

Tim,
Most rumors are just that "rumors". most rumors have no sources. I wouldnt discount the Kemp/Kershaw just yet.

[DonCoburleone]

How big would this be? The best pitcher in baseball getting traded at the age of 28/29... It would almost be unprecedented wouldn't it? This is definately one of those cases where the 2 first round compensation picks the Twins would receive (if he walks after 2008) would just not be enough. That said, I believe the Twins when they say they plan to compete for a title next year; and how you gonna do that by trading Johan??? I think if he does get traded it will be before the deadline next year if the Twins are hovering around .500 and 8 or 9 games out of a playoff spot.... Plus what does Liriano give them in his return? If he comes back to Ace form then that makes Johan expendable IMO.

[Sky]

Santana's the best pitcher in the majors, but he's not worth a ton in trade, actually. His 2008 salary should be similar to his $13 million 2007 salary, a savings of, say, $7 million. But then he's gone to free agency.

Players like Jose Reyes, who are arbitrations eligible, are almost as much of a bargain as Santana per season, and Reyes is under the Mets control for multiple more years.

Players like Matt Kemp, who basically have zero earnings ability for a couple years, are huge bargains. Kemp's probably worth $5-7 million on the open market, meaning he's a slightly worse value than Santana, but is locked up for five more years.

I'd rather have $5 million in saved value for five years or three years than $7 million (or even $10 million) in saved value for one season.

Maybe the team that trades for Santana gets the inside edge for signing him long-term, but that next contract will likely overpay him, anyways.

[ca!i sty!e]

I agree that the Kemp/Kershaw trade isn't likely...The Dodgers needs are obvious, and it's a power bat....pitching is a plus...as I said early, the only reason this trade makes sense if, we're wanting to get great pitching (santana) and buy a proven outfielder in Kemps place (A.Jones/Hunter).

In the end I'd like the dodgers to keep Kemp, lets get a 3rd baseman.

[Tim Dierkes]

I don't agree. There are legitimate rumors based on conversations with baseball insiders. Then there are fan rumors that are questionable from Day 1 but pick up steam anyway.

Big difference between something Ken Rosenthal (who talks to execs and GMs regularly) says and the latest Santana rumor. If Rosenthal, Stark, Olney, La Velle Neal said it it would be different.

This rumor does not pass the sniff test.

[ejruiz777]

Why aren't people using the Teixeira deal as a guide for a Santana trade? Sure, the Braves got Tex in mid-season and paid the "deadline tax", but pitcher's are simply more valuable than hitters in the trade market and Johan's acquiring team would have the best in the business for a full year, at least.

I'm calling it now: it will take two elite prospects (at least one MLB-ready) and at least two more good ones on top of that.

[nrmax88]

I have been very upset with Reyes the second hald of the year. Furious watching him actually, but there is no way I am ready to give up on him yet, even if Santana is coming on the other end. Pelfrey really isnt overated he just wasnt ready yet. He was very good in the second half. He throws in the mid to upper 90's with incredible movement. His slider is getting better but needs work. This was only his second full season. Kyle Davies, no he was is and always will be overated.

[nrmax88]

"I'm calling it now: it will take two elite prospects (at least one MLB-ready) and at least two more good ones on top of that."

For one year of this guy? Maybe if an extension is setup, but not for one year. As good as Santana is, I would be hesitant to give up Kemp and Kershaw, let alone 2 more. Then again, it only takes one team willing to pay the price.

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Kemp is also very good, but he has his problems (walk, what is a walk?).

.342/.373/.521

He doesn't have to know what one is if he can do that at 22.

[nrmax88]

Exactly. The important thing is that he has shown he can rake. As he plays more he will develop a better and better idea of the strike zone. I will take the guy with the great hitting ability that you can teach to be patient, before I take the guy with great patience that you have to teach to hit.

[nrmax88]

Also Tim, off topic but I have heard a couple time that the Mets may shop Beltran around this winter and see what the market is for him. Sounds like a longshot, but any ideas on where he might land if he is dealt, or what they would want in return him? My first thoughts were the 2 LA teams, as usual. They both can use a CF/ Power bat and they both have young talent. Any other places he could likely end up if shopped?

[themfightnwords]

"I have been very upset with Reyes the second hald of the year. Furious watching him actually, but there is no way I am ready to give up on him yet, even if Santana is coming on the other end. Pelfrey really isnt overated he just wasnt ready yet. He was very good in the second half. He throws in the mid to upper 90's with incredible movement. His slider is getting better but needs work. This was only his second full season. Kyle Davies, no he was is and always will be overated."

why should we believe that there is any validity to this statement? We got Davies for a mediocre middle reliever and got Pelfrey high in the draft and so far he has only gotten rocked.

[bjsguess]

Some team will trade 2 blue chip prospects plus immediate major league talent for Santana and extension. Bet the deal will be something in the neighborhood of 7/160.

Looks like a bargain compared to Zito's deal.

[icedrake523]

Minaya will go after him. This team probably would be in the post-season if they had that reliable ace all season.

I love Pedro, but I don't want him to have that pressure 1 year removed from major arm surgery.

The Mets need Santana and are a very likely team. They have the prospects to get him and the money to keep him long term. No team with a lot of prospects really has the money the Mets do and I don't see them giving up a lot for 1 year of Johan.

Get this done, Omar. You owe it to the fans.

[djskilbr]

"Why aren't people using the Teixeira deal as a guide for a Santana trade? Sure, the Braves got Tex in mid-season and paid the "deadline tax", but pitcher's are simply more valuable than hitters in the trade market and Johan's acquiring team would have the best in the business for a full year, at least.

I'm calling it now: it will take two elite prospects (at least one MLB-ready) and at least two more good ones on top of that."

This is EXACTLY right. Remember folks, Tex was basically a 1 year rental as well, and look what he got. Would anybody in their right mind seriously take Tex over Santana for value? Well, if you think so, then you're NOT in your right mind.

It will take 2 major league ready stud players for Santana, plus 2 other very good prospects, no doubt. From LA, it would take something like Kemp/Meloan/Kershaw/Laroche, I really think.

And btw, all this Mets talk is just a distraction technique so the fans turn their attention from the collapse.

[kab21]

Let's not forget that Kemp/Kershaw>>>>>Salta/Andrus/misc pitchers.

It's easy to see that Santana>>>Tex

As a Twins fan I would love a deal of Kemp/Kershaw/Meloan/Laroche, but I think it's too rich. I would be happy with Kemp/Kershaw/Meloan if the Twins can get it. Or to at least pick up a couple additional A/AA level position prospects.

[djskilbr]

"Let's not forget that Kemp/Kershaw>>>>>Salta/Andrus/misc pitchers."

I'm not sure that's entirely true. Salty is a lot better than Kemp (and I like Kemp) especially when you factor that he's a C. And he's more ready NOW. And those other 3 guys weren't chop liver. Granted, Kershaw is a stud, but is still a bit away.

I think that a Meloan/Kemp/Laroche/Kershaw package would certainly be better, but I'm not sure it's not in line with how much better Johan is than Tex value-wise.

[Sky]

Tex must be considered as more than a 1-year rental. The Braves had a decent shot of winning the East this season, and they also get Tex for next year. The Braves finished with the best run differential in the East this year, by the way.

And what's Tex's salary? $9 million in '07 -- I don't see that going up. Is Santana worth $4 more than Tex? Probably, but not a lot more.

So Santana provides a bit more value (in a money sense) than Tex, but you only get him for one season instead of one plus half an important season.

Considering most teams weren't willing to give up more than the Braves for Tex, his real price was probably a bit less.

[djskilbr]

Sure, Tex played 2 more months for the Braves, but the difference in talent and demand (most teams have a pretty good power-hitting 1b) means that Santana is worth at LEAST what Tex is. And I don't get your "value" thing. Obviously Tex was worth what the Braves paid, which was 1 STUD fully ready prospect, and 3 other VERY good prospects. Your value is what someone is willing to pay.

Lastly, Tex's contract won't go up? It's arbitration. Arbitration salaries ALWAYS go up. I bet his contract ends up being something like $11 M this year, while Santana's is $13.25 M. That is a HUGE difference in value, in Santana's favor.

[nrmax88]

I only brought up Davies because braves fans (not all of them) used to bring up his name in trade proposals like he was Phil Hughes.

[Ughly]

I hate the Red Sox but I think Boston would be the best fit for Santana considering what they can afford to give up and payroll.

My ideal fit trade would be Santana with an extension and Joe Nathan to Boston for Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Hideki Okajima, Michael Bowden, and Craig Hansen. That's an 8 player deal probably reminiscent of the Randy Johnson trade in years past, but I think it works perfectly for both teams.

Essentially Minnesota replaces Hunter in CF with Ellsbury while picking up a leadoff hitter in the process. They replace Luis Castillo's production at 2B and in the no. 2 slot in the lineup for many years making Alexi Casilla expendable. They lose Nathan but Okajima could slide into the closer role for a year while they groom Hansen in the back of the pen. After that, move Okajima to set up. Additionally they replace Carlos Silva with Lester when Silva leaves via FA and then they still would have Bowden in the minor leagues to bolster their organizational depth. Basically Minny rebuilds themselves into a contender for many years in the space of one deal. That would be just like Minnesota.

Boston meanwhile doesn't lose as much as you'd think. Santana, Beckett, and Matsuzaka at the front of the rotation is the sickest rotation around by far, and slide Clay Buccholz in at the fifth slot next year and there is more filth in that starting staff than there is a hooker's butthole. Meanwhile, Nathan replaces Gagne at the end of the year if Gagne leaves via FA. If Gagne stays, he replaces Okajima. It also gives Boston a shot at moving Papelbon into the rotation. If you are a Boston fan, imagine a rotation of Santana, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Buccholz, and Papelbon. I hate you.

The downgrades for Boston would come only at two spots. CF would be one, but Coco Crisp already has that job, so that's not really a downgrade because he's played there the majority of the year. 2B would downgrade as well, but only in terms of youth and slightly in defense. Luis Castillo, Tadahito Iguchi, and Mark Loretta are a few offensive 2B that would be available for the short term. Long term, losing a player like Pedrioa doesn't set an organization back at all. In fact if they took the opportunity to pick up a plus defensive SS and move Lugo and his bad contract to 2B, their infield defense would likely improve.

Boston will not miss Lester and will not miss Bowden. They should trade their depth for an ace and one of the best closers around while they have the chance.

[Ughly]

Also, about the Kershaw + Kemp for Santana rumor:

Whoever it was that said has proven himself is full of it. He's a talented prospect but he isn't proven.

The Twins are dealing the best pitcher in baseball and they are probably going to wave bye bye to Joe Nathan over the offseason as well. Hunter isn't coming back. Three of their five marquee players will likely start 2008 in a different uniform. You think Santana is going just for prospects? Hell no. They will want more than that.

That's why I think the Boston idea posted above makes the most sense. The Twins will want some very good young MLB players plus prospects, but no team is going to give up a talent like Jose Reyes. I think Boston has young replaceable pieces at positions the Twins need, so they are the most likely. My guess is that if the Dodgers were to get involved, the Twins would want something like Kemp/Ethier + Billingsley + Hu + Broxton/Kershaw. They'll want young players they can plug in right away, with at least two of them having success at the Major League level previously.

[aa]

The comments surrounding the Mets are out of whack in all directions. First of all, when you take into account age, market value, and performance beyond the worst two weeks we've ever seen, the idea of trading Beltran or Reyes is beyond nuts. Meanwhile, Pelfrey looked better in the second half, but he is still overrated. Meanwhile, whoever listed Carp as part of a potential trade is daydreaming. Remember Ian Bladergoen? You won't remember Carp either.

Also, Reyes isn't arb-eligible. He's locked up at something like five per year. Every team in baseball would take him in a heartbeat. He had the worst stretch you will ever see from him and he got frustrated. Cut him a break. If you want to attack Reyes and Milledge on character, attack Lo Duca for getting ejected over arguing balls and strikes multiple times down the stretch.