Angels and Dodgers Battling For Miguel Cabrera

That would be an insane otrade for the Dodgers to make...and only an idiot like Ned Colletti would do it.

Unfourtunately there are no big bats via FA except for Arod. Sure id trade any of those guys straight up for Cabrera, maybe even two. But FOUR? Theres like zero chance the Marlins get a package that good.

Edwin Encarnacion of the Reds is a potential third base candidate that could be had for much less than Cabrera or any FA 3B. I say one of these teams gets out of this ridiculous mess and goes after him.

The Dodgers do seem to have an intriguing mix of young players to offer. The Marlins love pitching, so surely they'll want either Billingsley or Kershaw. I'd love to see them go after Loney as well. I saw Kershaw in the Midwest League this season and he has a real future.

I wonder if the Marlins have any interest in Hank Conger from the Angels?

BSOX21,Loney can easily be replaced? He hits for average, he began displaying some awesome power at the end of the season. He also plays some gold glove-caliber 1B. You are right about LaRoche. He is overrated and fragile. Dodgers should trade LaRoche while he has some value.

G'damn that's a bounty. I knew the Marlins were going to ask for the farm, but when it's seen in writing, it looks even crazier. I agree with whoever said it earlier...LET THE KIDS PLAY. Let the Angels have him.

Oh yeah and did any of you see this article?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071113&content_id=2299537&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

Looks like he's getting his ass in SHAPE!

Billingsly is a monster. He's the best pitcher in the Dodger rotation. Colletti and Gradyl Little made the mistake of giving Brett Tomko and Mark Hendrickson starts last year, and beginning the season with Billingsly in the bullpen. The Dodgers probably could have made the playoffs had Billingsly started instead of Tomko.

Tim,

You need to show me 2-3 years before u move out of prospect status with me, unless you REALLY blow people away.

Kempy is an elite young player - yes.

Kershaw is a very good young pitcher - yes.

Neither is proven and Kershaw is at least 2 years away from being good enough to showcase in the majors.

1Bs with good batting avgs are plentiful. Unless you hit 40 HRs along with your .320 avg, you're just not that special at 1B.

Miggy provides a premium over other players that only a handful of players on earth can provide. You can develop 500 prospects and fail to develop 1 Miggy.

As good as Kershaw is as a 20 yr old, he is just as likely to be driving a truck in 3 years as he is to be pitching for the dodgers...maybe more likely to be driving said truck.

Miggy on the other hand, will likely be the best RH bat in the game.

Nomar Garciaparra also kept James Loney from playing a full 2007 season. Lets see what James Loney can do with the right number of ABs.

Ok so you still haven't answered, who do you replace Loney with, who will put up the same numbers for major league minimum?

Kershaw will be ready in less than two years. I haven't heard that conservative of an ETA yet.

Kendrick isn't "proven" either but he's "too good" to be put in a trade package?

"Unless you hit 40 HRs along with your .320 avg, you're just not that special at 1B."

BSox, by your definition, not only were there no "special" first basemen last season, there were no "special" baseball players. Reel it in a bit.

................ and upon hearing THAT trade offer, Colletti should stand up and walk out the door.

Cabrera is a talented hitter, but on a team like the Dodgers his lack of speed and poor defense are immense liabilities. Those players you poopoo as mere prospects are extremely exciting and a BIG part of the reason why I am looking forward to next season.

We'll pass, thanks. Frankly I'd rather do a short term deal for Lowell that THAT deal. Frankly, I would MUCH rather keep a Nomar/LaRoche tandem at third then give up FOUR of the family jewels. No way.

How can you say .875+ OPS 1Bs grow on trees? 17 qualified for the batting title last year, 7 had OPS at or above the range you stated. You get 3 more when you add in the non-qualifiers with a decent about of PAs (Teixiera, Loney, Stairs). So, basically, thats about 1/3rd of MLB 1Bs that fall in your "growing on trees" range. You're really prone to overstatements tonight.

Just because none of the single parts (Kemp, Loney, Kershaw) equal Cabrera in value doesn't mean the sum of the parts don't exceed him. Otherwise, the same argument can be made that Boston should offer Lester, Buchholz, Ellsbury and Lowrie for Cabrera.

bsox21, cabrera is NOT the best 3rd basemen in the game, EVEN if you consider ARod a SS (which you shouldn't, he isn't even an above average fielding 3B). that distinction belongs to david wright. with their bats being near equal, the massive difference in defense gives the clear nod to wright.

He's never had an OPS over 1.000.

Seriously, stop. You're not even trying to make sense at this point. We get it. You love "Miggy". But stop.

Also keep this scenario in mind... what's to keep Cabrera from bolting to the Yankees in two years for megadollars?

Are we willing to give up 20 team-controlled seasons of talent like Loney, Kemp, and Billingsley in exchange for a player that we don't have guranteed control over past 2009?

(Although let me give you credit, he is indeed 24 years of age)

>> Miggy's defense is good enuff.

The only speed Miggy needs is the ability to walk to first, jog to second, or jog around the bases

No no no... I get the impression that you aren't familiar with the Dodger style of baseball, and the physics of Dodger Stadium. Aggressive offense, aggressive on the basepads, reliance on good pitching for wins... And, with our pitching staff a defensive hole at 3B would be a nightmare.

Cabrera is an awesome hitter, but in the context of the Dodgers he is not the plug-and-play solution that he might be on for a different team. We're really short of offensive DEPTH right now, and trading BOTH of our two up and coming hitters wouldn't be worth it to me.

not joe morgan,

you're building arguments are petty points and hoping to garner credibility on stats that take 3 minutes to look up.

u have obviously never taken statistics or projected baseball performance before.

I've been a fan for 25 years and studied finance and statistics in college.

A 24 yr old player in a brutal hitter's park, with 2 spikes in OPS and 3 consecutive seasons with .946, .998 and .966 OPS's is as close to an automatic 1.000 OPS as u will find.

92-92,

It isn't anti-Mets to say Wright's defense sucks...it's called being a realist.

wright is awesome. I wouldn't trade him for babe ruth. fact of the matter is, degaldo took errors that were really wright's fault and saved several other with great plays.

wright glove is weak at best. his arm is a horrow show.

Dodgers,

"Dodgers style baseball" is the same as any other team in a pitcher's park, Mets included. The reason isn't becuz it's the best way. The reason is becuz it's too expensive to build a whole team of miguel cabrera's.

dodgers,

that's a valid point. im assuming that the dodgers want miggy before the few years are up.

unfortunately for u, organizations like the dodgers are more afriad of another team having an advantage in signing him by acquiring him now, than they are of losing a 20 yr old lefty who has scraped double A, and a good young OF and 1B.

for some reason, a big market GM like colletti wants a top 3 RH hitter in baseball. Call him crazy.

Someone tell Colletti to drop Juan Pierre off at the Salvation Army and then run back to his office and lock the door.

I'm sorry but I didn't read all the previous comments so if anyone else has said this I apologize. I'm a Twins fan, and when trade talks were buzzing about Santana and Dodgers, only Kershaw and Kemp were really mentioned (some other prospect in a couple postings), for sure not LaRoche. You're telling me you think Cabrera is worth more than Santana. The best pitcher in baseball with incredible work ethic and love for the game is worth less than a great hitting third basement with poor defense and his dedication being questioned. Wow, Im shocked. I know the position player vs pitcher argument, but were talking the best pitcher in baseball and a great person and athlete as well. I honestly can't believe more is being offered for Cabrera than Santana.

miller time,

a 24 yr old elite position player, is a far safer investment than a late 20's elite pitcher with lots of innings under his belt over the past 3 seasons.

johan is unreal, dont get me wrong.

hitters are simply safer and johan will be a FA in 08.

if i'm a dodger fan, id prefer to get m-cab than johan. u can get by in LA with slightly above avg pitching becuz of the park. to post top offensive stats there tho, u need to truly be elite with the stick.

miggy has already shown that the park is irrelevant. Florida is a TERRIBLE place to hit and he is still posting elite stats.

M-Cab is the real deal....as big an offensive juggernaut a single player can be. only a bullet can keep him from cooperstown.

I would love for the Angels to sign A-Rod and for the Dodgers to trade for Cabrera. Maybe then we would get a little love on the West Coast.

If I'm the Dodgers I do LaRoche, Kemp, and either Kershaw or Billingsley. Giving up both pitchers or "throwing in" Loney is too much.

>> I honestly can't believe more is being offered for Cabrera than Santana.

No, you read it wrong. That's not what is being offered, that is what the Marlins are asking for, and as you can read above, most of the Dodger followers here are balking at it.

Kemp, Loney and Billingsly is stupid and insane.

Great the Dodgers have Miggy.. so who plays first? what about in the outfield? and then there is a SP.

Kemp, Loney and Billingsly are twice as many wins as Miggy, and do it for about 12million a year less.

Trade them away, then instead of saving 12million , they have to spend another 12million to replace their existing young players with players no where near as good, and basically end up with the same win total.

Except the 24million dollar payroll swing between the young kids and Miggy plus.

Which lineup would produce more wins?

Furcal, ss
Pierre, cf
Kemp, RF
Loney, 1b
Kent, 2b
Martin, C
Ethier, LF
Laroche, 3b

or

Furcal, ss
Pierre, cf
Nomar, 1b
Miggy, 3b
Kent, 2b
Martin, C
Ethier, LF
Young?, RF

1st lineup is similar to last year, but with much more potential. If given the full time job, Kemp, Loney, and Laroche SHOULD produce good numbers. I still have hope in Laroche, as he's been raking playing for Team USA.

2nd lineup looks a lot like the Angels, 1 power hitter surrounded by average hitters that don't scare anybody. In this lineup, Miggy will probably walk 200 times, 199 of them being intentional.

Didn’t read all of the posts and sorry if someone else mentioned it ~ but the Dodgers are not looking for a “big bat” as much as they are looking for a mega-star 2B, 3B or CFer to make the corresponding prospect tradable, but its not even imperative. They do have a plus-player for every position on the field, its just experience that is lacking in most cases. They had one of the best OBP in the NL last year, they scored as many to more Runs per game as any team in the NL-W not playing in Colorado and that is with most of their kids sitting for good amounts of the year not getting experience or in near fistfights with teh Vets. A full year of Either, Pierre(since they are stuck with him) & Kemp in the OF with Martin, Loney, Hu/Abreu/???, Furcal, LaRoche wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world by any means and is easily enough to make the playoffs if they can sure up a miserable pitching staff which cant seem to make it to the mound without hurting itself.

People need to stop looking at the NL-W teams and harping on the lack of hitting stats! Playing so many games in SF, SD and LA means huge drops right off the bat and then you have OFs in Col and Arz which are extreme in size. You will not have a bunch of 40+ HR guys in this division, 25+ is truly probably the comparable! These teams need to win with Pitching, not Hitting ~ and if you question that then you should look no further than the DBacks and Rockies this year, two teams who were only in the position they were because of vastly improved staffs for both.

So no, trading for Cabrera would be a horrible idea for LA since they just don’t need him that bad. LaRoche has put up mind-boggling numbers in the minors the last 3 years, and I know that he was hurt a bit in 07 but that still doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be given a real shot instead of mortgaging everything else for a replacement. Shoot, even if that 300+ BA and 500+ SLG doesn’t show up, the OBP is obviously already going to be there as is evident by the .365 he showed in the MLs last year ~ and if we are talking about a guy hitting in the 6-9 spots, well that aint anything to complain about…

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OK, I had the chance to read some of the comments now, and wow BoSox ~ I’m just blown away…

Really dude, come up with a different argument ~ that one youre trying to pass off on us has nothing but holes in it! Here, some helpful insight into the situation:
Miguel Cabrera is unlikely to be a 3B 3 years from today, and is a rather poor one now.
Also ~ Miguel Cabrera has never come close to hitting 40HR, and would stay in the 30-32 range in the NL-W…

Next, your whole 1B obsession… The Average 1B hit .284/.365/.481/.846 in 2007. Loney was about +35/+15/+60/+75 over that average. You seem to think its easy to find a +75 OPS off the scrap heaps? Well, of all players with more than 200PA at 1B there were only 8 with an OPS over 900 (+55 over AVG), and only 12 with an OPS over that .846 average period! Oh, I should also probably point out that there were 40 players with 200+PA at 1B…

So really, (like NJM said) only about 1/3 of the 1B in baseball are even above average as far as OPS, and Loney is in the middle of that pact despite not even having the luxury of a full seasons worth of experience… So despite you claiming it to be so easy, only 12 teams can say they got superior production out of 1B in 2007 and only about 1 in 4 players can say they are above average. And again, there were also only 8 1B with an OPS over 900 so less then 10% are in that category… Want to revise all that stuff now?

Now if he wasn’t included in the trade, Loney would ultimately be displaced by Cabrera at 1B if he didn’t walk, the 3B problem would really only be solved for a year or two and then LA would have to get another guy for third at the same time as deciding to keep Cabrera at an insane cost or go with the similarly productive Loney (which would make the trade 3 top-prospects and $16M+ for nothing more than 2 years of Miggy)…

But because you’ll probably argue the “similarly productive” part ~ onto Loney vs Cabrera (let alone the 2-3 other top-prospects he would cost)
.320/.401/.565/.960 in 4th full season making 8M+ a year and FA in 2…
.331/.381/.538/.919 in 1st almost-full season making LgMin and not a FA for many…

Now, lets think about those OPS for a sec… (min 350PA)
Miguel Cabrera ~ .965 was good enough for 15th in baseball
James Loney ~ .919 was good enough for 23rd in baseball
Humm… that doesn’t seem like that big of a gap there already.

Ok, lets think only 1B…
Cabrera .965 would have been good enough for 5th, Loney was 7th.
Humm… again, not much of a gap.

Does this mean Miguel isn’t one of the best hitters in the game? No, not at all because he is. But the difference between him and Loney alone isn’t really that big…

The trade idea is really completely pointless; it makes no sense what so ever. Its just a stupid fit for this club at that or really any similar price; even Colletti wouldn’t be dumb enough to make the rumored deal… 4YR/80M to Lowell would be a wiser move than to make that trade! 20YR/600M to Arod would be millions of times better than to make that trade! If the Dodgers trade that kind of package for Cabrera, with the current shape of the team, it will go down as one of the worst trades in the history of baseball ~ they will not have improved their lineup really because of the loss of Kemp &/or Loney, they will have dramatically hurt their future, it will cost them quite a bit of money which could have been spent on the middle infield, SP & BP (you know, real needs of the club) and he’ll be gone or unwanted in 2 years!

Any team dealing for Cabrera will surely ask for a negotiating window to get a long term deal done. I'm not quite sure why the Marlins don't do it themselves.

u guys are making the typical noobie mistake of overrating prospects. its quite normal.

its sort of like trading stocks. 85% of day traders lose money, but u only hear about the people who score big, so everyone keeps doing it.

good job baseball fan,

finally someone who sees prospects for what they are.

on the other hand, i wouldnt deal kendrick and conger for miggy.

call me crazy, but im huge on conger and kendrick.

Loney will not out produce Kendrick. That is silly.

Loney's Minor League Line:

.296/.363/.430/.793

Kendrick's Minor League Line:

.359/.402/.567/.969

for the mathematically challenged that equates to a difference of:

+.069 in BA
+ .039 in OBP
+ .137 in SLG
+ .176 in OPS

For both players that represents parts of 6 years in the minors. Loney is one year younger than Kendrick.

Kendrick also plays 2nd base which makes his upside even more insane.

Loney projects to be much more in line with a Casey Kotchman than he does a Howie Kendrick. And even then, the upside isn't as high. Kotchman's minor league performance kills Loney's. Again, Kotchman is a year older than Loney.

Kotchman's career minor league line was:

.325/.407/.493/.900

Look, Loney will be decent but he is not the 2nd coming of Albert Pujols. He is a solid prospect but not the centerpiece of a trade for an elite player.

Loney has never hit more than 11 HRs in a singles minor league season, and you guys project him to hit 25-30 annually? I'd put money he'd never crack 30.

I can't believe this kept going down the same path after I went to bed. I think what bothers me most is I thought I was wasting my time debating a 16 year old kid and woke up to find out it was a guy my age who couldn't grasp why he was so far off. Then I found out he went to college and my opinion completely flipped. I felt like such a noobie!

BSox: You might want to revisit those (college level) finance and statistics classes and see if you can find anything to help you factor in a player's salary and years under control. Like someone pointed out above, you're suggesting about 15 years of cost controlled service for two years at $25MM+ (not factoring in the costs associated with replacing the traded players). That's just not a smart management strategy. Its not.

Loney hit 15 last year in the Bigs playing about half a season. Maybe he started eating his spinach. He definitely has the power, as the ball jumps off his bat. I'd say 30 homeruns isn't a stretch at all. And Conger is just a fat Korean guy. =p

Comparing Loney's minor league stats to Cabrera's is apples and oranges. What Cabrera was doing at 21 Loney still hasn't done at age 24.

Loney had a terrific half season. Just not sure I would throw away 2000+ AB's worth of statistics for 300 gathered over half a season.

There have been plenty of players that put up insane half years. There have been a handful of players who have put up 4.5 years like Cabrera has.

But its also that type of logic that got Cabrera his first shot in the bigs. Everybody is a projection at some point.

Posted by: bjsguess
“Comparing Loney's minor league stats to Cabrera's is apples and oranges. What Cabrera was doing at 21 Loney still hasn't done at age 24.”

…No its not. They started at the same age, Miguel was just brought to the majors first. But they are currently less than 1 years off eachother in Age and 3 years off in years appearing in majors. Cant discredit Loney because of what wasn’t in his control though…

What we have in the end are two similar producers today, both of which should be at 1B. Loney is a plus-defender making very little for years, Cabrera would probably be Avg at the position and making 8+M under control for only 2 years. Trading Loney for Cabrera straight up would be really nothing more than a slight 1-2 year gain for 16+M and the ability to mis-place him at 3B (Which James could probably field just as well if they forced him over there for 2008 so I kind of think of this part of it as a joke).

So would you rather have Miggy at 8+M for 2 years or Miggy-Lite at LgMin for 4+ years PLUS the other 2-3 top prospects being named?

Think of it this way, would you trade Grady Sizemore, Franklin Gutierrez, Ryan Garko and Fausto Carmona for Carlos Beltran? Well, that’s kind of what people are asking the Dodgers to do…

Oh and…
“Loney had a terrific half season. Just not sure I would throw away 2000+ AB's worth of statistics for 300 gathered over half a season.”

…Well, in a combined 2 part-seasons Loney has now played a full-seasons worth of games and has this for a stat-line:
144 G, 446 AB, 143 H, 24 DBL, 9 TPL, 19 HR, 85 RBI, .321/.372/.543 line.
You don’t like that do ya? See, if he had only put up 2007 then maybe I would agree with you more, but he had a rather similar 2006 so… For their career so far:
Miggy .313/.388/.542
Loney .321/.372/.543
So really, why is anyone questioning what James can do and still talking as if Miguel would be such a huge difference to the club… Loney for Carbrera straight up wouldn’t really help the Dodgers that much so I really just don’t get it… (well ok, except that Cabrera would play a bad 3B instead of Loney playing a good 1B…) Think of it this way, would you rather have Loney + $8-10M to play with or Cabrera?

The upgrade from Loney to Cabrera alone is just so minimal, the dollar amount attached to him is going to be so extreme and its would cost so much more on top of it. Really, where is the logic behind it? Just to say you “have one of the best 5 players in the game of baseball”? What does that equate to at the end of the day if you don’t have a very good team around him? Not much huh…

“think it has to be pointed out because so many people were SO down on him going into even this year, thinking that he would never hit 15 HRs in a full season, let alone half.”

…That’s solely because its LA though. It’s a “what can you show me” town with 20 years of failure under its belt ~ they are down on nearly everyone at the drop of a hat because of it. Truth is, I bet you would find many, many more teams willing to trade for Loney than for Cabrera solely because Cost vs Reward + Reward-length is an extreme variance despite numbers which seem very comparable…

I really don’t get it though, Cabrera is great ~ but in any given year he is not one of the top 5 guys in the NL alone. Sure he’s young, but his body is already that of a 35YO so… Although the starting age is bit different, I see Cabrera as very Jim Thome-like and in the end I imagine the two will be very similar in career paths…

"But still, can't wait for the 2011 World Series: Florida Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays."

Which will be played in two brand new state of the art ballparks, where the beer girls serve 40oz beers for a nickle topless.

Humm, maybe I’m not being clear here or something…

I’m trying to talk actual production rather than “value” or whatever when I’m talking Cabrera to Loney… Cabrera’s production was very good. James Loney has a similar skill set and has put up rather similar numbers both in the minors and his first couple years. The trade would be for Loney + 2-3 other top prospects + $8-11M in salary. So, we have Loney + more high rated prospects + about as much money as a guy like Garland would cost all for a guy who will put up numbers which will be a bit better than Loney. The Value of Loney to Cabrera not being extreme in difference makes the rest of it almost a complete joke to me.

I mean, am I missing something there? I see no logic what so ever in it, if Loney alone could provide fairly comparable numbers then why would a team consider throwing him, more prospects and tons of cash away for the slight difference? Just because it’s a “very well could because of what he has shown to this point” instead of a “should unless injured or some other unforeseen situation”? Just because Cabrera has done a bunch at a young age? Who cares what he has done in the past, I’m more worried about what he will do in the future and a 24YO with the body of a 35YO who cant really play the position I want him to play is not “ohh, ahh” to me at all when factoring that cost. Sure he’s one of the best hitters in the game as a 3B, but he’s not much of a 3B and if I can get numbers close to his at a fraction of the cost plus keep 2-3 of my other top prospects and spend the cash else ware then what would be the logic behind doing the trade?

And lets think about that “what he’s accomplished at such a young age” stuff… What does that really mean to the Dodgers? They surely wont get credit for things he has done in his past so that doesn’t really mean anything. He’s young now; the advantage might be that he will be able to play many more years in the future right? Well, if he’s only currently under contract for 2 years then that doesn’t benefit the Dodgers either does it? He’s young so maybe he’s still learning? Well, I think his learning was probably just pushed up some since he has so much time in the majors already. Maybe it’s the fact that he should be entering his physical peak? Oh wait, he’s in the worst shape of his life so that doesn’t mean anything either… So he’s young ~ big deal, it means squat to LA…

Or think of it this way, making the rumored deal would mean LA would:
A) Have their rookie 3B replaced with a higher-producing more experienced bad-fielding one
B) Create a huge SP hole
C) Create a 1B hole
D) Create an OF hole
E) spend about 11M more (that’s about what is being projected in Arb)
PLUS really, when you add the 11M to the 10M or so for a SP ideally as good as Billingsly, 10M or so for a OFer ideally as good as Kemp and maybe like 7M for a upside 1B ~ well, looks like Cabrera would have cost the team about 35-40M in cash and 2B & the BP still needs to be addressed…

Really, someone please give me the logic behind the Dodgers making this deal other than “Miguel Cabrera is one of the best young hitters ever” or whatever…

If the Marlins get Kendrick, Adenhart, Santana/Saunders and a decent OF, they will win this trade.

I am telling u guys.....Kendrick is going to be a STAR!

darkstar,

miggy's defense is avg.

stop with ur "james loney for MVP".

ur a noobie fan.

bsox21,

Ahhh, so I’m a “newbie fan” because of the fact that I don’t go “ohh ahh” over the Name-Players and instead look at actual production on the field? Yeah, I guess the way SF or BAL run their club is the logical way to do business ~ you know, just jumping at any “name” you can get regardless of cost, despite what it will mean for the club…

… Like I said before, your argument amounts to trading Grady Sizemore, Ryan Garko, Fausto Carmona and Franklin Gutierrez for Carlos Beltran yet youre still trying to act like the “name” will actually mean superior value. Logic seems to be a branch about 80 yards from your reach my friend…