Angels, Marlins At Cabrera Impasse

The Angels are a bit frustrated in the Miguel Cabrera dealings.  According to Jayson Stark, they've told the Marlins to come swing by their suite whenever they're ready to give a little on their demands.

In the deal for sure: Howie Kendrick and Jeff Mathis.  One of Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Nick Adenhart would be included as well.  However, the Fish want two of those starters.  The Halos won't do it, but might be able to give one starter plus Reggie Willits.  Either way it's going to be a major haul.

It wouldn't be impossible to get Cabrera for three players, but they'd have to be damn good ones.  It's always fascinating to watch the Marlins replenish their system.

Comments

[RWS]

Kendrick, Mathis, (Insert Pitcher Here), and Willits would fill 4 positional needs for the Marlins immediately.

If they can get a better set of 4 players, then by all means they should try for it. But that is pretty damn good, and affordable.

Somehow the Marlins always get what they want in the end, and I'd expect this to work out in their favor again.

[GoBoSox420]

you counter a request for 2 starting pitchers with a 4th ofer

brillant

[StLknows]

How long would Kendrick be under contract for? The Marlins got all off-season, I bet the Angels fold before the fish.

[04Forever]

praise mike lowell, im so glad the red sox avoided this mess. i new the price would be way to high for him

[DrewB]

If I'm the Angels, I offer that 4 person / 2 pitcher package to the Orioles for Bedard & Tejada.

[tolo316]

The Marlins are eventually going to have to cave. By all reports, it doesn't even look like the Dodgers are in the running anymore and whatever the White Sox are offering isn't close to what the Angels are offering. Unlike the Santana situation - where the Twins are playing the Sox against the Yankees - there seems to be no one for the Marlins to play against the Angels.

In the end, the deal will probably be: Kendrick, Mathis, Willis, and either Adenhart or Santana.

[fapelbon]

I hope this deal falls through, if for no other reason than I'm tired of listening to Angels fans talk about how a World Series is "inevitable" if they get Cabrera. Sorry guys, but ummm, no.

[J.L.]

Am I the only one that isn't overwhelmed by a package of Kendrick, Mathis, Santana/Saunders/Adenhart and Willits?

[andrewh11882]

fapelbon, ditto on Red Sox/Santana.

Kendrick, Mathis, Willits, Adenhart is plenty. Especially considering the packages being mentioned for Johan. If that is turned down, time for the Angels to pack up camp and go after plan "B," whatever that may be.

[kbrooks2LA]

Kendrick/Mathis/Santana/Willits for Carbrera...

The Angels should make this deal today. None of the players they'd be giving up have the potential to be truly difference-making players. They could develop into steady MLB guys...but NO star potential there.

If they make this deal they'll probably be the favorite in the AL...

You can't guarantee a WS (see Yankees 2001-2007), but the Angels will win the AL West by at least 10 games and will have a formidable team in the playoffs.

Their pitching staff will still be good...and the middle of their order will have Vlad, Miggy, Hunter, Anderson, Mathews etc...

I fucking hate the Angels so I hope they don't make this deal

[angelfan4life]

I can't beleive that the two deals the Angels requested was not enough to get Miggy and maybe it better to go to plan B with Miguel Tejada or Justin Morneau and they wouldn't have to trade for two or three prospects like wood, adenhart, or kendrick and would have to give up jeff mathis.

[russell]

Marlins are in the driver seat. Cabera is 2 whole years away from free agency so if the marlins don't feel its high enough they wont do anything at all. The Marlins have their own version of Wiltis, they have De Aza. Does anyone really think a 4th outfeilder is what going to tip the scale? Replace Wiltis for Wood. Sending over Wood, Adenhart, Mathis and Hendricks. With Hendricks being the centerfeilder of the future.

[jasonistotheMax]

russell, if by hendricks you mean howie kendrick, he has no experience whatsoever in the outfield. he's a secondbaseman. you should probably learn about the players before voicing your opinion.

de aza is no willits. willits is the prototypical leadoff hitter. he has great plate discipline and see's a ton of pitches -- I do believe he led the AL in most pitches seen per AB. he is a great bunter with tremendous speed, and he is an on-base machine -- career OBP over .390 throughout the Minors and Majors. and he is a big time grinder with huge hustle. he's a 4th OF on the angels roster, but on several of teams he would be a starting outfielder and leading off.

[scribbletone]

"Kendrick/Mathis/Santana/Willits for Cabrera...
The Angels should make this deal today. None of the players they'd be giving up have the potential to be truly difference-making players. They could develop into steady MLB guys...but NO star potential there."

You don't think the first three guys there dont have star potential? I agree that Willits has ZERO star potential, but the other three is a different situation. Kendrick (age 24) could end up a lifetime batting average around .330, Mathis could end up with 15-20 HR potential and a .300 BA which combined with good defense pretty much makes a star at catcher, and Ervin Santana won 28 games in his age 22-23 seasons and has the stuff to be at least a 3 guy and could be an ace if some stuff went right. I'm not surprised that you don't think Mathis or Santana has star potential because they had bad years, but I could still see both of them becoming very very good players. But the fact that you'd think that Howie Kendrick has ZERO star potential is fairly ludacris. The guy batted .322 last year as a 23 year old. He could be a star next season.. That deal would be the Marlins are pretty good offense..
They would be a masher (like Miguel Cabrera) away from being an exceptionally good offense. I would try and trade Dontrelle Willis for Andy LaRoche and Chin-Lung Hu. Then when they had enough of Willits, they could move Ramirez to center and plug Hu in at short. That would be ideal.
CF Willits
2B Kendrick
SS Ramirez
RF Hermida
LF Willingham
3B LaRoche
1B Jacobs
C Mathis
Pitcher

[ajkreider]

The Marlins are in the driver's seat - especially if the yanks or sox sign Santana. If they've a hope of competing, they Halos will need a major upgrade - and that means Cabrera, not Tejada.

Oh, and DrewB - don't be daft. No way the Orioles give up Tejada and Bedard for that.

[ajkreider]

Scribble,

Where's Uggla gonna play? He's a 30 homer guy (with a crappy average).

And it's way, way to early to project Kendrick to be a career .330 guy. That would, uh, make him a hall of famer.

[scribbletone]

Wow i completely forgot about Dan Uggla.. They could probably move him for a decent pitcher to take Willis's spot in the rotation. And I'm not saying Kendrick will hit .330 for his career, I was just saying that he is clearly capable of it. And that other guy said he had no star potential, which I was simply disputing.

[kbrooks2LA]

Scribbletone...

Howie Kendrick is NOT a going to become a marquee player. Let me break it down for you...

He has played 160 games in the bigs. This is a pretty good sample size. Not definitive, but pretty good.

He has a .306 career batting average. Pretty good, but we all that batting average is just a subset of a better stat (i.e. OBP). Kendrick has walked 18 times in those 160 games. That was NOT a misprint. He has only walked 18 times. Fucking terrible. THerefore, his OBP is merely .332...NOT GOOD. At this rate he'll need to hit at least .340 to have a decent OBP. Not a great OBP...a decent OBP. I think it's unlikely that he hits .340 consistently. He'll probably maintain between .300 and .315.

So he swings at everything. That's OK if he mashes the ball, right? Well he doesn't. He's only hit 9 balls outta the yard. I know the HR might be somewhat overrated. However, he has only slugged .435 which is NOT good.

His OPS is only .767 which is NOT good.

His is servicable defensive 2B. Not spectacular, but not terrible either.

Unless he learns to walk a lot more (which he has never done at any level) OR starts juicing (now illegal) OR hittin' some HGH (there's an idea)...then he'll never be a really standout player.

He'll be a servicable 2B. Not great, not terrible...just servicable.

He's NOT a star!!!

[scribbletone]

He's still pretty young though. The guy might never be a full on star, but I can still a decent amount of .320-15-75 seasons in him, which yeah won't make him a star, but would make him an all star and far better than servicable. He still has a chance to develop better patience at the plate, and I know he'll never be a big time walking guy, but if he can at least start drawing a few more walks as he matures then he could put a 320/375/470 line which is pretty damn good offense at second base. You're making it like this is his ceiling, which it most definately is not.

[kbrooks2LA]

I think we're getting closer to reality now. He's young and he might develop more plate discipline leading to a higher OBP.

If he can consistently post .320/15/75 from 2B then he'll be a valuable guy. Not a star, but valuable. I'm not sold on him even putting up those numbers.

However, we're talking about Miguel Cabrera here. The guy is 24 (matter if he's resigned). In over 2500 ABs he's put up a .313/.388/.542 line. This guy is the truth. If you look for his closest comparables (by age) on B-Prospectus the same name comes up each year...it's fucking HANK AARON.

[mlb1]

Lol.

#1 Kendrick hit around .310 ever since his recall from a short 27 AB stint. He was a rookie and still hit. around .310.

#2 Kendrick was hit in the hand, not once, but TWICE in his second season. He had broken bones. If you exclude May, which was the month he returned from having broken bones in his hand, he hit over .340 for the season! He also hit over .350 since the ASB! The guy hit .320 total (including May) while suffering broken bones in his hand. He was *23*

I can understand a Dodger fan voicing his opinion on an Angels prospect/now MLB player, but please, don't post idiocy like that.

Kendrick is a special talent and anyone who knows anything about Kendrick knows it. Sure, he doesn't walk much, but when you fire missiles all over the field like he does, you're not going to need to walk much. You're not going to need to walk much when you hit like that.

Still, I would include Kendrick in a package for Cabrera, since talents like Cabrera don't come along very often.

[scribbletone]

I never said that the Angels shouldn't move Kendrick in a deal for Cabrera, because they definately should. They are clearly in win now mode, and adding Cabrera would probably be their final piece to the puzzle. That would be an exceptional team that would challenge for the World Series for a few years, at least.

But as mlb1 said and i said before, even though .320-15-75 is probably more realistic, this guy is so talented and is just so good at making solid contact that i could see a few .340-20-80 seasons from him during his prime, it is quite plausible. The guy just seems to hit and hit no matter who he is hitting against or what situation.

"CF Willits
2B Kendrick
SS Ramirez
RF Hermida
LF Willingham
3B LaRoche
1B Jacobs
C Mathis
Pitcher"

How did the Marlins get LaRoche? If they do acquire Kendrick Uggla would move to 3rd most likely. But I see this offer better and the Angels might be able to get away with it. Wood, Mathis, Saunders. Saunders is probably the best out of those 3 pitchers, Mathis would become the starter automatically pretty much and Wood could move to 3B. Even though scouts say he is an MLB ready SS the Angels have been trying to move him to 3B. Then for the OF the Marlins go out and sign Scott Podsednik to a 1 year deal and to play CF. Or I could see the Marlins trading Kevin Gregg for Elijah Dukes instead of signing Pods.

[bjsguess]

kbrooks2LA - that is some seriously retarded analysis.

You know of some other 2nd baseman that can field their position and have posted a minor league career average OPS of almost 1000?

Or, a 2nd baseman in his first real stint in the bigs where he posted a .320 BA with good gap power? BTW - that 2nd baseman needs to be 23 years old.

I know he doesn't walk. Since OBP is the most important stat in the world (rolls eyes) you must also think that Tony Gwynn sucked big time. Everyone always complained about how he wouldn't take a walk - how he was a free swinger.

Tony's career line was:

338/388/459

Kendricks line last year was:

322/347/450

When Gwynn was 23 he posted a 309/355/372 line.

Kendrick will grow into more power, like Gwynn did. Over a full season he would have hit 10HR's and over 40 doubles. Again, for a 23 year old 2nd baseman those aren't shabby numbers.

I haven't seen anyone suggest that Kendrick straight up for Cabrera is a fair deal. Of course Cabrera is a stud - no disputes. However, this proposed trade includes a superstar prospect in Kendrick, 2 young, effective pitchers, and a former #1 draft pick in Adenhart. Excuse us for not falling overselves to make this deal happen.

[mlb1]

I see Kendrick hitting around .330/.360/.480 next season with around 45 doubles and 10-15 HRs.

He's that kind of hitter. Bill James agrees, as he projects Kendrick to have a .480 SLG and a .320 BA in 08.

Let's not forget something also...Kendrick will only be 24 in 08.

[scribbletone]

Hmm I like this, I'm getting a lot of support for my pro-Kendrick argument. I was getting worried that nobody was gonna have faith in a guy who was a top 10 overall prospect, produced in every level of the minors, then continued to produce in the majors.

[davearm]

Anybody on here know how old Kendrick is?

[scribbletone]

I'm guessing thats a joke because its been posted like 6 times, but Kendrick turned 24 a couple months ago

[mlb1]

He turned 24 not too long ago...and will be 24 for the majority of the season in 08.

[kbrooks2LA]

oh...a thousand apologies.

I didn't realize Kendrick was Tony Gwynn...or that he might become Tony Gwynn. Someone should alert Tony Gwynn Jr.

[DentalPlan]

"It's always fascinating to watch the Marlins replenish their system."

Watch the drool. That's liberal use of the word "fascinating" if you ask me. I actually don't think the Marlins have done that well so far with their latest rebuilding.

As for the package, I don't think the big package everyone expects for Cabrera is going to happen. Most teams are not going to give up four players with a lot of them being promising. However, in this case it's not insurmountable. I don't like Ervin Santana. Reggie Willits is going to be a .670 OPS outfielder for certain. I don't like Jeff Mathis, this guy has been massively overrated from the get-go. Howie Kendrick's very good, yes. So that's one very good player, go for it.

The Marlins are in the driver's seat about as much as a team that ended up behind the Nationals can be. Willits, Santana, Kendrick, and Mathis is a fine package from the Marlins, and a do-able one for the Angels. Kendrick is a sure thing, he's not going to be a question mark like Tabata or Carlos Gomez or Ian Stewart or most prospects - he will hit, and he will hit well. How many prospects can boast that kind of certainty?

[bjsguess]

The point isn't that he will be Tony Gwynn. However, his minor league experience PLUS his early MLB experience tend to make Gwynn a comparable.

Just like Cabrera might be comparable to Hank Aaron, there are no guarantees. At this stage of their careers there are a lot of parallels.

I agree with DentalPlan - the other guys (Mathis/Santana/Willits) are expendable. They won't be missed by the Halos this year. If this is the deal (Kendrick + the other 3) then they make the trade. I still think that the Fish are holding out for Adenhart and/or Wood.

[angels fan]

How much more do the Marlins want. Kendrick, Mathis, Wilits, Adenhart. If that is what the Angels offer take the deal. The Marlins don't want to take this too far and have the Angels give them the cold shoulder and they won't get any more talent like they could in this deal.

[kbrooks2LA]

The difference is that Miggy is already putting up Hank Aaron numbers every year. NOT in the minors...in the MLB. And, unlike Gwynn, Aaron and Miggy were raking right outta the gate.

Here's some crazy logic...

Premise 1: Kendrick hasn't been that great early

Premise 2: Gwynn wasn't that great early on

Premise 3: Both had the same knocks against them early on (low OBP/SLG)

Conclusion: Kendrick likely to develop like Gwynn (a first-ballot HOF)

Don't you think that hundreds of guys started their careers out w/ unimpressive numbers and didn't have HOF type careers?????

Just maybe, huh???

[kbrooks2LA]

Oh yeah...was comparing Gwynn's career line (awesome) and Kendrick's career line (NOT GOOD) supposed to make me buy your argument??? Gwynn's line is significantly better in every cited category.

If you're constructing an argument meant to be persuasive you should include facts that support your argument...NOT facts that contradict it.

[angels fan]

Are you serious kbrooks. Howie Kendrick batted .320 in a limited 88 game season because of a broken hand. That is the tip of the iceberg. That is first full year in the majors. I never knew you had to hit .350 to have a good year.

[mlb1]

Kendrick as a 18-year-old: .318/.368/.408

Kendrick as a 19-year-old: .368/.434/.517

Kendrick as a 20-year-old: .367/.398/.578

Kendrick as a 21-year-old: .384/.421/.638

Kendrick as a 22-year-old: .369/.408/.631

See a trend?

It's hard to take anything you type seriously, kbrooks, when you don't know anything about Kendrick and just blurt out nonsense.

Kendrick is a special talent.

[famousmortimer]

That Kendrick trend is a little less impressive when you include his time at the major league level and get:
Kendrick as a 23-year old: .285/.314/.416
Kendrick as a 24-year old: .322/.347/.450

To break that down a little more, the league median OBP is .348 and OPS is .794. Taking only his better, second year Kendrick is a median player. And while his average and slugging percentage increased in that second year, he drew the same 9 walks as his first year and he had 71 more ABs.

The point isn't that you have to hit .350 to have a good year; but that if you rarely walk, you will have to maintain an extremely high BA if you want to be a better than average offensive contributor.

[mlb1]

Yes, but there are some things people don't realize, since not everyone follows the Angels.

Kendrick had a short 27 AB stint when he was 23, and he was pressing too hard. He only had 3 hits in 27 ABs. He was sent down. He was recalled later on, and hit around .310 since then that season. So, his first season numbers are skewed because of his short 27 AB stint. Either way, that's impressive for someone that was 23.

Second, only 4 second basemen in the AL had an .800 or higher OPS.

Third, Kendrick suffered broken bones in his hand and still managed to hit over .320 for the year. How many players, who end up with broken bones in their hand, after getting hit not once, but TWICE in the same spot, manage to have that kind of season?

If you remove May, which was the month he returned from his hand injury, he hit over .340 for the season. He hit over .350 since the ASB, which are in line with his minor league numbers.

Look at this:

Kendrick in April: .327/.365/.490

He then got hit in the hand that month and went down with broken bones.

May: .152/.200/.242

This is the month he returned from his hand injury, and he was rusty.

June: .333/.350/.475

July: .286 batting average in only 4 games played, since he got hit in the hand again.

August: .395/.435/.488

September: .340/.353/.470

Basically, the month of May brought down his overall numbers by a lot. That is the same month he returned from having broken bones in his hand.