Cubs To Make Offer For Crawford?

Zambrano will have an era under 4...but yeah, thats probably it. Lilly would be around 4...but yeah. That rotation and bullpen are making me dry heave...

@nic:

Haha, thanks. As a Yankees fan, I'm scared to death of the Rays and their system.

It's one of the big reasons why I want them to get younger and deeper and to shed bad contracts.

AL East will be fun to watch in a year or two with the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays all fighting for 1 or 2 playoff spots.

The whole trade doesn't make sense if ur a real cubs fan and saw them play this year then you would know that guys like Hill, Marmol, Hart etc. will be more helpful then crawford. Crawford's stats weren't even all that impressive. We have speed lets get someone with pop and another arm.

Why should the Rays want to take a bunch of prospects? They have the best minor league system in baseball and don't need 5 crappy prospects that will never become above average major leaguers in exchange for a 26 year old allstar. It makes zero sense.

By far, Marmol is who the Rays would want the most. Out of Marmol, Soto and Hill, I would rather have the first two over Hill. If im the Rays and the Cubs won't pony up Marmol, I walk away. If the Marlins can get 3 or 4 of Kershaw/LaRoche/Billingsly/Kemp/Loney, surely the Rays can get 2-3 players of that caliber for Crawford. Im not even sure if I would consider Marmol, Hill, or Soto to have the upside of any of those Dodger players. I would rather have Kershaw, LaRoche, Billingsly over any of the Cubs young players or prospects. Soto and Marmol have never been considered top prospects and came out of no where this past season. So now we are all supposed to consider them elite young stars? I don't think so. Soto doesn't have enough major league experience or a good enough track record to be considered an elite young catcher, or even one of the best catching prospects in the game. Marmol needs some closing experience before I'll consider Marmol the next K-rod. He still has constrol issues, his numbers don't seem sustainable, and he has no track record of closing and hardly any experience in the pen. Its one thing if Cubs fans think their magical beans will turn into anything amazing, but Im not buying it. A lot of fans tend to believe THEIR best prospects are just as good as everyone else's top prospects.

So long as there are viable and significantly less expensive options available elsewhere, the Rays are not going to get the offer they apparently would need to get to trade Crawford.

Compared to Crawford, a guy like Fukudome will give you...
* similar AVG
* similar power
* superior OBP
* similar defense
* all at a similar $ cost.

The only advantages Crawford has is that he's established himself in MLB and Fukudome hasn't, and he'll steal a ton of bases.

Tell me if a track record and a net of 40 or so SBs is worth Marmol, Hill, etc. Of course it isn't.

Sounds to me like there just isn't a fit here. The Cubs just need to pony up what it'll take to land Fukudome, and be done with an OF of Soriano - Pie - Fukudome.

I'd *highly* prefer the Cubs go after Fukudome and *keep* whatever pitching they'd otherwise have to pay for Crawford.

Crawford is a good young player - but he is definitely *not* worth the ransom it sounds like the DRays would ask for.

His OPS last year was .820, which is pretty good, but not great relative to average AL Left fielders.

Also, his peripheral stats point to a very healthy dose of luck.

His hit rate last year was .375!! (That's his batting average on balls in play). His career average in that stat, including last year is just .334). In other words - he had *a lot* of luck.

Prior to 2007, he had shown steady improvement every season. That hit rate he enjoyed last year covered up what would have otherwise been considered a step backward.

His 2007 K% rate was up from 14% in 2006 to 19%. His BB% rate was down from 5.8% in 2006 to 5.2% in 2007.

Buyer beware. He's still remarkably young (26) considering that he already has almost 1,000 career hits. But, I don't think he's a superstar, and he wasn't as good in 2007 as people think. I predict a regression in 2008 to a sub-800 OPS.

If the cubs have to give up the players being bantered about here, they will regret it ... Soriano/Pie/Fukodome would be a very solid OF and the Cubs wouldn't have to give up great young pitching to get it.

-Kevin

Well all the Tampa Tribune and every other newspaper is doing is speculating. If you actually think the front office of either club is letting the media know which players would be involved, then you are mistaken. Every newspaper writer has about as much of an idea what is being kicked around as I do. There are truely few sources that have a direct knowledge of whats going on behind closed doors. For all we know, the Cubs never made an official offer and the Rays never called the Cubs asking for anything. How often do we hear about a proposed trade when the teams have not ever been in contact. More than likely this all started with someone speculating and it exploded from there.

By no means am I trying to speculate for the better good of the Rays. Based on what the Rays front office has said and the needs of the club, I have offered my two cents (pure speculation) on which players the Rays would want in a trade. While I don't think prospects would not be involved, I am positive that any trade would not be centered around prospects, unless you still consider Soto a prospect. The Rays front office has been very upfront in saying that they no longer have any interest in trading for prospects, as they are content with the state of our minor league system and would primarily seek to upgrade the major league roster. They want major league talent for major league talent. Players who could contribute this season.

With that being said, I couldn't see Marmol, Hill or Soto not being involved to some capacity. Further, of those three, Marmol and Soto would actually be addressing a organizational weakness. Hill would be a nice addition for 08, but with a strong core of young starting pitchers on the way in Tampa Bay, starting pitching is not the biggest concern by any means. Relief pitching, catching and shortstop are the biggest concerns. In trading Crawford, they would seek to improve in those areas. Trading for Hill and prospects would be a step back for the Rays, as the prospects involved in any deal would likely pale in comparison to the prospects the Rays already possess.

I really do not expect any Cubs fans to like what I am saying. As I stated before, any trade for Crawford would likely be seen as horrible move for the club who wants him bad enough. Unlike Cabrera, the Rays are not shopping Crawford, instead open to listening to any offers.

So please take what I say with a grain of salt.

Do you think the rays have enough major league talent to trade for cabrera and shift Longoria to short?

Dear Rays fans,
In case you forgot who you are, you are the Rays! No matter what you think of your farm system, you are still the 30 million dollar payroll Rays. Until you get a new stadium, new owner, or move you will not compete with the Yankees or the Red Sox. You can hardly compete with the Blue Jays. Until one of those three things happen, you will be forced to trade your best players away 2 or 3 years early to get maximum value, because you know you can not sign them. Stop complaining about outlandish Cubs trade rumors and complain about an ownership that will trade a star like Crawford.

Kevin,

I concur.

Let's face it, this is not going to happen. My guess is that the Cubs contacted the Rays JUST to see what it would the Rays would want and somehow word got out.

First of all i am a HUGE cubs fan but you other cubs fans out there have to realize that you cant just give up any old guy and get a super star! The only way i think this deal will work is if the cubs give up a pitcher (Rich Hill,Marmol, or MAYBEY marquis) I think a good deal would be Rich Hill,Felix Pie,and maybey bob howry or sean marshall
most likely the Rays will ask for something more but i dont think the cubs will give much more.

No way Jim Hendry is willing to give up Soto who really showed what he could do at the end of last season and in the short time the cubs had in the playoffs.The Rays are likely going to want Soto but i dont think the deal will work with him in there.
=)

erkman12,

While you may be correct about the Rays payroll, much of what you said is inaccurate. The Rays do have a new owner (2 years ago) and have a new open-aired stadium in the works, opening as soon as 2012.

In addition, its a common misconception that the Rays have ever traded away their young talent because they can't afford to sign them longterm. Who have the Rays ever traded away for that reason? Lugo, Huff, Baez, Hendrickson? Wow we are really sad to see those guys go. Further, the Rays actually have already signed Crawford (till 2011) and Baldelli (till 2012) longterm, which was one the first moves by the new ownership. They are in talks right now to sign kazmir longterm as well.

Baseball experts believe that the Rays have a much stronger nucleus in place than the Blue Jays and Orioles, and should be able to compete in the AL East as soon as 2009.

While I would hate to trade away Crawford, if the Rays did trade him away it would because of the outfield depth we have and value Crawford has. Dukes could easily step in for Crawford and the Rays offense would hardly miss a beat. In addition, they have Desmond Jennings on the way, a possibly more talented version of Crawford.

Marquis is garbage and would get eaten alive pitching in the AL East. In addition, the Rays would not want to take on such a horrible contract with better options such as Niemann, Price, McGee, and Davis a year or less away from the majors. I would be highly suprised to not see at least two of those four pitchers in the Rays rotation sometime in 08.

Personally, I wouldn't want Murton or Gallagher. We have no need. If Crawford is traded, we have multiple options to take his place in left. As for Gallagher, we already have a plethora of young major league starters just as good or better and a bunch of top pitching prospects who should be up in 08. We have too many mediocre back of the rotation starters as it is. Soto and Marmol would be my pick.