Johan Santana Rumors

It the Red Sox could offer Lester, put in Crisp instead of Ellsbury, and add another prospect like Bowden or Bard, then it would be solid. But I don't see it happening.

I guess Alan Horne wasn't good enough for the Twins. What a shock.

@darkstar:

Yea I know. I'm a Yankees' fan and even I have to say there's a huge discrepancy between the packages.

It might all be bogus or it might be that Santana is forcing a trade to the Yankees.

I can just see it now, Aaron Gleeman must somehow be a Yankee fan too since he wrote Hughes is a potential #1, Kennedy is a potential #2 or #3, and Melky Cabrera is above average in CF already.

The two most ludacris and made up offers on here are deals centered around Crisp and Lester adn the Melky and Kennedy deals. Crisp and Lester is AWFUL. Outside of Red Sox Nation, Lester isnt more than a #3 or #4. Hes a great story and all, but cmon. Buchholz or Ellsbury has to be involved. Both of those two have the talent to become all-stars. Crisp is crisp, and Lester is a solid at best player. I would think the yankees have to give up either Hughes or Joba. Anything less than that, would be an absolute steal for hte yanks.

As a Red Sox fan I really hope the Yankees include Hughes in any deal if they get Santana. It seems that people value Joba more now...his fb/slider combo is pretty damn impressive but I could see him getting hurt somewhat frequently or losing effectiveness as a starter and I'm not sure his other pitches will be that great...you always here he has a pretty good curve as well but you hear mixed reports. It just seems that Hughes has a better build and more polish to be the better starting pitcher over time. It seems like Hughes slight decline in velocity may play a role in that but the guy knows how to pitch and I would not be surprised to see him get back to 94-95 with regularity once 100% healthy. If the Yanks get Sanatana I really hope Hughes is the center piece.

If Santana somehow goes to the Red Sox without inclusion of Ellsbury and/or Buchholz, I will be extremely dumbfounded.

If the Twins consider a deal of Melky and IPK too low -- and feel Melky/Hughes is more suitable, I can't imagine how a Lester/Crisp combo could at all seem reasonable considering Crisp's salary and the fact that Lester doesn't project anywhere near a #1. I would be absolutely irate if that happened.

Keep in mind a #3 starter will cost you $10M a year so Kennedy does have value.

Pelfrey and Humber have looked subpar thus far from what I have seen but I do like Gomez and would hate to see the Mets trade him.

As far as Santana, if I am the Yankees I would pull out of the sweepstakes and make a run for Haren if it doesnt cost you Hughes/ Joba or Cano.

I do not get why the Yanks would consider trading Hughes who showed signs of greatness and is only 21.

IMO Santana may have peaked and the numbers are getting worse every year.

Why not exchange risks with the Cubs? Mussina for Prior.

Am I nuts or are the Red Sox putting way too much value on Coco Crisp? If I'm trading away Johan Santana, who will still only be 29 years old next year, I would settle for nothing less than two top tier talents (either major or minor leagues), and Crisp does not make that cut in my mind.

Gmbing and others,

Cabrera isnt even LgAvg ~ that was discussed thoroughly last night in the other thread. His batting is already what his Minor-League numbers say it should be, so he shouldn’t be expected to get better; and his D doesnt begin to make up for that below-average bat. Melky Cabrera compares very nicely with So Taguchi ~ hardly someone people get excited over…

So, considering Cabrera is basically worthless (ie almost every team already has a Melky-type on their roster; the Twins in-house version being called Jason Tyner) that package would really be Kennedy for Santana. Since Kennedy is nothing more than a Top-DP 1.5 years removed from the Draft, the Twins would be better off just keeping Johan for the year and taking the 1st rounder or supplement in 2009… The choice between Johan and the Yanks package is “Johan for one year or a DP which has a year more experience in the minors then the one you’ll get in his place”.

Besides, this is roughly what the Twins SP depth chart looks like with Johan gone. You tell me if they need more SP prospects instead of fielders to plug about 5-6 holes in their current lineup:
Francisco Liriano
Matt Garza
Boof Bonser
Scott Baker
Kevin Slowey
Nick Blackburn
Brian Duensing
Ryan Mullins
And guys like Anthony Swarzak and Yano Pino not far off…

To think the Twins will accept even Joba/Hughes + Trash is kinda nuts since they really, really don’t need Joba or Hughes. THEY NEED HITTING!

DRamos, “the numbers getting worse” isn’t visible in his stats though. Take out the fluke run of the Tribe against him in 2007 and you have by his best season to date. Cleveland really got into his head last year, as a Tribe fan though I can tell you I don’t expect it to be the case in 2008… Anyone not wearing an Indians uniform looked like Cesar Izturis at the plate against him in 07 ~ that isn’t him getting worse…

and a rotation of santana, harang, arroyo, and either cueto/bailey with cordero in the pen would give the reds a really good staff for a change. they'd still have firepower in their lineup as well

Not a chance melky/kennedy gets it done for santana. It's going to take more than 2 prospects for him, most of whom will probably be in the low minors.

What the hell is with the Melky name dropping in all these trades anyway? How long can one guy live off 100 good minor league at-bats?

We're talking about a guy who, in two full seasons with the Yankees, has yet to post an OPS+ over 90. A guy with at best average speed. A guy with a solid, but unspectacular glove. A guy who bats .275 with no power.

A guy who, because he plays in New York, has been heralded as a hero ever since he hit a couple timely homers in his first season in the majors.

He was never very good in the minors (career .769OPS, so his .728 major league mark probably isn't changing much). He doesn't walk a whole ton, and frankly...from watching him play while on the east coast, he's just so exceptionally ordinary. And yet he gets name-dropped like an A-list prospect. He's not. And if he's a major piece of a Johan trade, the Twins are gonna get hosed.

Wake up and look past the name recognition factor, guys. Melky isn't gonna be that great.

Booms,

Something like Hamilton + EE + second-tier Pitching Prospect or another fielder would best what is rumored from the Yanks based on the Twins needs. There seriously is not a single team that can be counted out in this if they are willing to offer the contract.

Since we have no clue which teams might be willing to pay him the money he wants, its wide open... (an no, the Yanks/BoSox are not the only club who can spend money ~ the Giants have the current highest paid pitcher and the Rangers signed the previous highest contract ever given before the Yanks gave a similar one this year to the same guy). All of a sudden a team like TB decides Johan is the guy they want to build around and they easily become the frontrunner…

And Meta,

Johan in 2007:
Vs Cleveland ~ 4.38 ERA, 39 IP, 8 HR, 1.154 WHIP, .242 BAA
Vs all others ~ 3.10 ERA, 180 IP, 25 HR, 1.056 WHIP, .217 BAA
…Tell me that doesn’t stack up against all his other years…
Taking one team’s fluke run away, his numbers only regressed ever so slightly ~ if at all…

I also want to point out that a CHANGE in statistics is not the same thing as a REGRESSION in statistics. Fans obsessed with spotting the next trend and finding the next downfall will always point to any slight aberration in a player's stats as an instant indicator of their demise.

Johan's ERA/WHIP the last 4 years:

2004: 2.61/0.92
2005: 2.87/0.97
2006: 2.77/1.00
2007: 3.33/1.07

So basically, 3 straight years of Cy Young performances, then a down year. Did Roger Clemens never have a weak(er) season during the middle of his career? Clearly he must have been regressing in 1993 when he put up a 4.46ERA for the Red Sox. And the Braves should have cut ties with Tom Glavine after his 1994 ERA of 3.97. And the Mariners shouldn't have waited until 1998 to cut Randy Johnson after his 3.67ERA in 1996. Boy, what a mistake.

Seriously. One bad "Johan year", and suddenly the guy is regressing? A year in which he was still had the best WHIP in the American League, the third fewest hits allowed per 9 innings, the third best K/9 rate, the second most Ks, the 4th best K/BB ratio, the 7th best ERA, the 9th best ERA+, and 15 wins (and a winning record) for a sub-.500 team.

Man, if that's his fucking DOWN YEAR, send him my team's way, please.

With all this Bos/NY chatter going on here, seems like you guys are overlooking the 1 team that would seemingly be able to offer a package that would trump any I've seen so far: the Angels. With a potential rotation of Santana/Lackey/Escobar/Garland/Weaver who needs offense?

That being said, I believe the aforementioned package of Wood/Santana/Willits might be a little much unless they have a window to sign him to an extension.

The question is whether you give up top prospects for a guy who has logged over 200 innings each season and whose stats have gotten worse.

The stats are still great but will his ERA and WHIP continue to increase over the next few years.

I would make the deal if it doesnt include Cano/Hughes or Joba and I would extend him only 4 years past this upcoming season. I am not a fan of giving players no less a pitcher a deal past 5 years.

I really think Hughes and Joba will post numbers that resemble Beckett/Haren in the near future.

If you are the Yankees, why would you give up ANYTHING? He is going to test the FA market and they could blow everyone out of the water with an offer. If I'm NYY, I drive up the price, let someone else take him (while giving up quality prospects) for 1 year, then woo him next offseason.

I don't think the Twins take Clement from the Mariners if they end up sending Johan to Seattle (5% chance, *maybe*?). Jose Lopez fits a Twins need better at 3B, allowing them to move an all-bat-no-glove guy from that position IIRC. Lopez has All-Star credentials, a good glove, and showed scary ability at an even scarier age in the minors. He slipped a bit last year, but I don't think his long-term prospects have diminished much.

On Aaron Gleeman's scale, Jones is probably an 1- to a 1, Morrow a 2+, and Lopez a 3+ to a 2 (but that low part only because of his recent performance). This is probably a competitive package unless the Yankees or Red Sox crack and give more than we'd expect. Again, though, I still think the Yankees find some way to pull this out of their... backsides.

JMF, would you really feel comfortable trading every good prospect in our system for Santana? I dont want him that bad, all this Mets want an ace talk is overated. Nobody has an ace accept a few teams, and the Mets need a bullpen, not a starter. I would be skeptical about even trading Gomez and Pelfrey. I think it was NJM who said it, and I agree, something scares me a little bit about Santana. I couldnt tell you why, and I dont have any stats to justify it but I would be very weary about gutting the farm for him, and there is no way I give him anything more then 4 years at the money he wants. I think it is less then 1 percent chance of the Mets ending up with Santana.

And oh yeah, type key sucks. This is my third post today, and also my third log in.

The same guy who reported the Garza/Young trade said that "several names have been kicked around during talks, including lefthander Jon Lester, shortstop Jed Lowrie, outfielder Brandon Moss and major leaguers Coco Crisp and Kevin Youkilis (note: got the impression that Youkilis’ name was barely kicked around)."

I hadn't heard Lowrie, Moss or Youkilis mentioned before.

Maybe the Sox would consider Youk because he's just reached arbitration? That doesn't seem right -all the rumors out of Boston are that the Sox will try to sign Youkilis to a long-term deal this offseason. I think they'd be stupid to trade him, he's an OBP machine and incredible defensively.

Lowrie has huge upside, but I could see him going. Moss is no more than a 4th OF, really.

nrmax88,

You are a jackass, enough said.

Dark,

You made a very good point. It appears ole Mr. Johnson may have been on the juice considering he dominated after the age of 36 but was good in his "prime."

Originally, Gammons stated it would only take Kennedy, Cabrera and a B+ prospect but now it appears it is going to take Hughes, Cabrera, Jackson and/or Tabata to get this done.

NOOOOO!!!

SAVE PHIL HUGHES PLEASE!

Disclaimer:

I'm the biggest Phil Hughes fanboy on this blog. Thank you.

I don't know why the Twins still want Cabrera when the deal for Young and Pridie is about to go down.

Why would the Twins want Melky if this Delmon Young trade goes through. They are getting a CF in that trade also. Maybe if the Sox did offer Youk, Lowrie, and Moss I could see that but they would most likely have to throw in Hagadone or another good pitching prospect.

Today Angels owner Arte Moreno said that twice he felt the team had a deal put together to acquire Miggy Cabrera and each time the Marlins switched the terms of the deal at the last minute. He said he's becoming increasingly frustrated with the Fish.

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071128&content_id=2313285&vkey=news_ana&fext=.jsp&c_id=ana

so right now even though the Twins will soon have Delmon Young they still want to get Melky Cabrera from NY?

the Red Sox would be leading if they would include Ellsbury with Lester?
i would think the Red Sox must know that if they dont include Ellsbury then its likely Santana goes to NY, so wouldnt one think the Sox should include Ellsbury with Lester for Santana just to keep him away from NY.

It looks like if the Red Sox lose the Santana race with the Yankees, they will deal Crisps to the White Sox, or I wouldn't be surprise that they make a deal with Oakland for Haren, with Crisp, Buchholz and Moss... They could also make a three way deal with Texas giving up one of their catchers.

I haven't heard anything about Atlanta about Crisp, even though they would be a prime team in getting him, and a place to help his BA/OBP.

Amen Not Joe Morgan:

I'd rather lose Cano before Hughes.

I'd say offer up:

Kennedy (legit MLB starter)

Horne (will be ready soon and is very underrated)

Melky (I have no idea why the Twins want him, but hey have him by all means)

One more.

If it's a starting pitcher, it can be Kontos/McCallister/White/Marquez.

If it's relief: Cox or Melancon.

If it's hitting: Gardner (ridiculous OBP #s), Jackson, Tabata, Betemit.

If it's defense: Alberto Gonzalez who's apparently a wizard (i.e. would replace Jeter right now at SS if someone had the balls to move him to CF or something).

Henry: You may have lost me at Cano; too good at way too shallow of a position. You can't buy a 2B right now even if you want to. I am with you on Melky not being a deal breaker at any point except that I worry what trading him leads to. I am not at all interested in Aaron Rowand on a 5 year deal. The time for giving good but not nearly great veterans long term, well above logic prices needs to be over. (This is where my Corey Patterson fetish would take off. Trade Melky as part of this deal and give Patterson a one or two year deal to man the position until A-Jax is ready. Great glove, very good speed and, if he hits out of the 9th hole, even better.)

SucksAtLife: I wonder if Buchholz would consider that trade a "steal".

Delmon Young will play LF for the Twins. They still need a CF and an infielder (or two).

The Yanks still can offer Hughes and Cabrera, plus a couple prospects. It's not clear the Red Sox will offer more than that. Would the Twins prefer Hughes, Cabrera, Jackson or Crisp, Buccholz, Lowrie? I have no idea.

As a Twins fan, I think Cabrera is overrated and so, while Hughes is good, the Yankees don't have enough in addition. Well, Cano and Hughes would get it done, but they won't offer that.

The Red Sox could give the Twins both a starting CF in Crisp (of course the Twins would prefer Ellsbury) and a starting 2nd baseman in Jed Lowrie. Neither of those guys are impact players, but they fill holes cheaply.

"Delmon Young will play LF for the Twins. They still need a CF and an infielder (or two)."

Have you ever seen him play? Jesus.

"I like the Buchholz, Lowrie, and Crisp trade better than Hughes, Cabrera, and Jackson.

I think Lowrie is underrated. 68 XBH in 133 games with a .380 OBP between AA/AAA last season as a 2B/SS. Other than Ellsbury's sept and WS (increase in name recognition), I don't see alot of seperation between the 2.

I consider Crisp and Cabrera close enough to be a wash. Cabrera is cheaper with a little more potential, but Crisp is a superior fielder (deserving of a GG).

Even better would be getting Lars Anderson in addition to the rest of the deal to restock the Twins MiLB system. He looks like a real nice prospect."

I will suckle Clayboy on my own man-teat I love him that much, and I can still acknowledge Hughes has a higher upside if he has an owner/manager who doesn't shred his arm. Him being younger and in a more injury prone time period seriously needs to be taken into account in all weighted worth conversations.

Anyone who ever even slighly contemplates the idea that Melky Cabrera has an much worth as Coco Crisp is a complete and utter fool. This isn't homerism talking here, Melky Cabrera is a 4th outfield AT *(&#(%R*&#(*%(*&#% best. Yet again we get to ages when contemplating trade value. Even if Melky proves me and everyoneelse with a frontal lobe wrong he won't be under contract during his prime years. He may make a huge leap in development and turn into league average(thats what his HUGE leap will make him) then you pay him a buttload more in arbitration years. Coco Crisp has more value than Tori Hunter right now when you factor in contracts, and everything else.

I've been saying this for a while now Jed Lowrie is going to be a hell of player for someone unfortunately because of Lugo it won't be in Boston. Though you busting out "I don't see alot of seperation between the 2." is just flat out foolish.

Ellsbury is Johnny Damon. The first six years of that mans career purely on the field, is mammoth. When you add the marketing value that comes along with having such a sexy dude play Andruw Jones CF for 6 years, its just mind boggling.

A Kennedy, Melky, Austin Jackson deal is a complete and utter joke when compared to a Lester, Coco, Lowrie deal. Let alone when a Buchholz or an Ellsbury is involved.

I still am not convinced Joba is going to be a good starter, but if Joba is added to that deal I can see the appeal for the Twinkies. Adding Hughes, just kills it.

Before anyone MFY fan adds Tabata to the equation I want your opinion on Oscar Tejeda, they are basically the same player.

As for Lars Anderson, the Sox had the choice to spend on Matt LaPorta and Lars Anderson, they chose Lars. In hindsight they might have made the wrong choice, but thats still up in the air. I still say you spend the money for both. But when you bring in the context of the draft, and dollars it shows how much they value Lars. We who follow Red Sox minor leaguers get a little weak in the knees thinking about him in Fenway, crushing pitches to around the Ted Williams Red seat on a regular basis. He is not a throw in, in any deal ever.

"I've been saying this for a while now Jed Lowrie is going to be a hell of player for someone unfortunately because of Lugo it won't be in Boston."

Here's what I hope happens: The Sox keep Lugo for another year. He has a decent comeback year (it would be hard for him to get WORSE), and then after 2008 the Sox trade him to an NL team where he'll probably be better. The Sox pick up $4m for each of his final two years, and get a couple decent prospects in return, or one ML-ready guy. The Sox promote Lowrie, who's got another year of development behind him, and pay him league minimum for three years: for each of the two remaining years of Lugo's contract, they pay a total of less than $4.5m for SS, and Lowrie will probably produce considerably better than Lugo.