Mariners Rumors: Kuroda, Affeldt, Guillen

Let's talk Mariners rumors, aside from their questionable interest in Johan Santana.  David Andriesen breaks it down.

• The Ms will acquire at least one solid starter, and hopefully two.  They've got a four-year offer out to Hiroki Kuroda, which is pretty aggressive.  It's possible that if they land him they could look internally for the #5 starter.
• One interesting rotation option is Jeremy Affeldt, who grew up in Washington about four hours away from Seattle.  Affeldt said he'd consider starting again, which is probably the only way the Ms would have interest in him.  His agent is already talking to the Ms.
• Bill Bavasi doesn't sound thrilled with Jose Lopez at second base.  Kaz Matsui and Mark Loretta will end up elsewhere, basically leaving Marcus Giles, Tadahito Iguchi, and David Eckstein as the options.  Or, they could trade Richie Sexson for Ray Durham.
• There's a slight chance Jose Guillen would accept arbitration if offered.  I doubt it though; he'll get two or more years somewhere.  My guess is that it's offered and declined.

Comments

[zito4cyyoung]

I'd trade Ray Durham for a low level prospect and M's pay Ray's salary

[NW]

Durham for Sexton? Only if the M's eat most of Sexton's contract and some of Ray's. Of course the M's should say the same thing about Durham.

[Jared78]

I've read they are pretty down on Lopez before...wonder if Lowrie/Masterson for Clement swap would work (if the Sox don't use them for a pitcher...which they really don't need). Lowrie should be a 2b and not a short stop and he would be a good obp guy with some gap power, good avg to hit behind Ichiro. Masterson is a good sinkerballer who would seemingly play well with Bettancourt and Beltre on the left side. The Sox would get their catcher to replace Varitek for 2009....thoughts?

[Steve Soto]

I don't think anyone should dismiss the Sexson-Durham swap idea too quickly.

[MrGenre]

Another option at second is Yung Chi Chen, who looked hot at AA this year and had no problem adjusting to AAA at the end of the season. He's faster than Lopez, and with a little work he could have the same defensive skills.
If the M's sell Lopez, I'd see them using him or teaming the position with Willie Bloomquist before they'd shop elsewhere...

[MrGenre]

And the only problem I have with the Durham-Sexson swap is that Sexson's upside is 40 homers and Durham's likely to hit about 15 at Safeco.
With the M's desperate for power, I don't see it happening...
Salary switch makes sense, though...

[NW]

How much difference is there between Durham and Sexson's contract?

[scribbletone]

Personally I think Jose Lopez is a better option than Ray Durham or any of the other guys out there. Every single one of them is going to be overpaid, and all of them really aren't very good players. With Lopez, who turned 24 last week, you at least have the potential for him to improve. I'm very aware of how brutal a year he had last season, but to me its more likely that he plays well than Durham.

They would be better off going after someone Felipe Lopez if they're going to decide to go in a different route.

[slider]

why do i root for this team if this is all i can expect from Bavasi?

[scribbletone]

Because you root for your home team no matter what a dumbshit the GM is. You gotta have faith. You got King Felix, Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, Wladimir Balentien and a bunch of other great young guys. Thats why.

[thr33niL]

4 years for Kuroda is a mistake. He doesn't have the "mid-90s" fastball everyone is saying. More like 90-91. And handing out 10+ million per year over the long term to an unproven guy like Kuroda, you are begging for trouble.

[scribbletone]

I agree. In most part Japanese pitchers are a bit of a crapshoot, because for every guy that does well (Park, Matsuzaka, Nomo), there are guys that blow (Igawa, Irabu). In that case, i would say 4/40 seems like it could be a mistake. At least the Jeff Weaver fiasco was only for one year..

[BaseballGuru]

SEXSON for DURHAM trade:

I think Yung Chi Chen is still a year away from playing consistently enough to start at 2B. He is young and still needs to develop his power a little bit more. Durham would be a good holdover for the 2008 season until Chen is capable of assuming the position.

While Sexson would be a "bad contract" for the Giants, he has more upside than Durham. In addition, Sexson's off year in 2007 which included a month or more of time missed due to injuries is still better than Durham's best year would be at this point. Also, Sexson is still in his prime while Durham is on the downside of a solid but unspectacular career.

The main benefit to SF is it would give the Giants a sample of how Richie fairs in 'The Bay' before they offer a big contract to him next year as has been assumed will be the case.

Durham making 7.5MM and being a liability at 2B defensively is also somewhat of a bad contract, so I see this being a straight up trade with maybe 1-2MM at most going to SF. The stadiums and players would be better matches for the two as well.

Sexson would be undeterred by the deep fences and has performed at his best without other big hitters around him such as his time in Milwaukee when often injured Geoff Jenkins was the only protection in a very weak lineup. Durham has a nice left-handed stroke that would play well with the short porch in RF at Safeco Field.

FILLING THE HOLE LEFT BY SEXSON...

By picking up Durham and removing Sexson from the roster, the Mariners would have excess at 2B and a need at 1B. This could be resolved by trading Jose Lopez, Raul Ibanez, Jake Woods, and 1MM cash to the Rays for Carlos Pena.

A young 2B in Lopez, who is tied into a long-term deal, would appeal to TB and it helps solidify a gapping hole on the right side for the Rays and gives them one of the best defensive infields in the majors.

Ibanez who has a very manageable contract at 5.5MM would be easy to re-sign on the cheap by his hometown team and could split time at DH and 1B with spot starts in the OF. Gomez and Baldelli playing RF would allow the odd man out to share the DH (either)/1B (Gomez) role with Ibanez and possibly lessen the chance of either of the two current Rays becoming injured.

WASTED PAYROLL

The next move should be a trade of Vidro and 2-3MM to any club that will take him. Let me clarify this for those that are wondering what we get back in return as Mariner fans. As one fan put it best, send him to Japan or Minnesota for rice or ice, just as long as he's not in Seattle. My feelings exactly, he is horrible defensively cause of bad knees and has almost no power anymore which makes him a liability for any team that relies on the DH for pop (i.e.: Seattle).

ROTATION SOLUTION

The pitching would be solved by trading Jarrod Washburn, Ryan Feierabend, Wladimir Balentien, and Rob Johnson to Baltimore for Erik Bedard. This move gives Baltimore the young power outfield bat they desire, a solid young catcher for a team that doesn't have much depth there, a veteran pitcher to lead their staff for a year until the young guns can step up in 2009, and a lefty who can potentially inherit the staff ace role within a couple seasons.

MOVIN' ON UP TO THE BIG LEAGUES...

Mariners benefit because they now can start Ben Broussard in RF unless they can move Vidro in which case he would become the DH while Jeremy Reed and Charlton Jimerson split time in RF, and Adam Jones would of course assume LF. Without Ibanez the defense would improve drastically and the pitchers would lower their ERA significantly.

UNFAIR COMPARISON?! MAYBE!

Sure everyone wants to dismiss the talent of Reed but I might remind you of another young Mariner named Alex Rodriguez who hit only .225 through his first 196 ABs over his first two ML seasons and only had 5 HRs and 21 RBIs over that period as well. Is it too lofty a comparison?! Maybe, but Reed is only 26 and was the top minor league prospect in the nation only a few years ago when he hit .373 in AA for the Chi Sox.

Mariner fans are also quick to forget how dissatisfied we were with A-Rod, enough so that we would've taken about any other SS in the league and a large sack of baseballs in exchange for Sir Alex. He seemed to lack the intangibles that would typically accompany the hype he received and overrated was a more than common term used to define him. Then the breakthrough came and everyone forgot about his shortcomings from years past.

A BASEBALL REVIVAL

Reed is one of the best defensive outfielders in professional baseball and can still deliver the highlight reel catches. In addition he was starting to right the ship offensively in 2006. Sure he only hit .217 for the year, but over a three week stretch prior to his wrist/hand injury, he also was batting near .300 again with most of his 6 HRs coming during that stretch.

CONTRACTS

I would lock Bedard up for the long haul with a 85-90MM/6 year deal by absorbing the final two years of arbitration he would be willing to give somewhat of a discount, I'm sure. Then pair that with a 50-55MM/5 year deal for Carlos Pena, also absorbing the final two years of his arbitration.

Sign Hiroki Kuroda to a 40MM/4 year deal, figure it's like paying 20MM for a posting fee and giving him 5MM a season; a bargain compared to the Matsuzaka and Igawa risks taken by the Yanks and Red Sox respectively, but Kuroda would get the bucks instead of splitting it with a Nippon Baseball League ball club. The 5th spot in the rotation would go to either Morrow or Rowand-Smith depending on Winter League and/or Spring Training results, with the other one going to the bullpen.

PROTECTING THE FARM SYSTEM

These trades include a large number of players on the 40 man roster for a good reason. Anyone that would be worth picking in a Rule V Draft will now be able to be protected by inclusion onto the extended roster. If we are going to give away solid talent, we should get something in return!

There are some players in the Seattle Mariners minor league system that I am far more excited about than the guys we would be trading, even though they don't get the reputation points within most baseball circles.

UNKNOWN QUANTITIES

My list of who I want to protect from being drafted:
* OF Mike Wilson
* LHP Robert Rohrbaugh
* IF Matt Tuiasosopo
* C Luis Oliveros
* RHP Travis Chick
* 3B Ronnie Prettyman

[MrGenre]

Wow... I don't even know how to respond to that...

So who's at first if we trade Richie and stick Broussard in right?...

Oh, and you could totally do Bavasi's job, dude... probably even better than him!!!

[BaseballGuru]

Carlos Pena would be at first and this would do three things for the Mariners. They would have more balance to their lineup (LH vs. RH), they would be able to finally use their homefield advantage by having more left-handed power to exploit the design of Safeco Field, and they would improve defensively with the range of Broussard/Reed/Jimerson and Jones vs. Ibanez and Guillen. Of course the biggest thing would be the improved athletic ability of the team and the overall youth, especially once Durham leaves after 2008 and Chen takes over.