Red Sox Leading For Santana?

And doesn't mean it's not true, either.

ummmmmm, i wouldnt go that far ginantacos.com, unless of course you are being funny somehow?? Im a huge sox fan and even I dont think like that...

Believe me, I am being quite sarcastic.

For the record I'm not a fan of any of the teams involved. It's just amazing to most of us fans in the Fly-Over states the way the media blows the prospects from the Only Teams that Matter. If Melky Cabrera was on the Astros, I can guarantee no one would talk about him like a big-time prospect. Hell, if he were on the Astros he wouldn't even play, since they have about 5 OF better than him.

How a guy who plays horrible defense can be considered a great prospect after posting a .718 OPS in the most powerful lineup in baseball....I have no idea. If I can figure it out I'll let you know.

*raising the roof*

"So far every Red Sox fan has posted the exact same thing ("Great haul for the Twins!") but no one will answer the question: If these prospects are so damn great, why are you unloading them and calling it a great deal?"

I never said that. I DON'T want Santana if he costs that much. 4 good younger players for one guy, who'll cost 5 times as much? No thanks.

Between those 4 players there's 8 combined years @ league minimum, and another 9 of arbitration, plus 3 for Crisp with set prices. That's 20 years of cheap service time from 4 solid players. I don't want to swap that for the most expensive 6-7 years ever from a SP.

Yeah, here GinAndTacos ~ because of how much Melky talk is in this thread, maybe we should post those numbers again (they were in a thread a couple days ago about Melky/Kennedy being enough for Johan…)

.280/.360/.391/.751 in 06
.273/.327/.391/.718 in 07

.275/.340/.388/.728 Combined
.273/.340/.431/.770 The *LgAvg line over that time…
…Gee, perfectly LgAvg except for only -.40 SLG…

~THEN~ we look at the MinorLeague numbers to see if he has just under produced…
.283/.338/.355/.693 in A-
.333/.387/.462/.849 in A
.288/.334/.438/.772 in A+
.275/.322/.411/.733 in AA
.248/.309/.366/.675 in first AAA year
.385/.430/.566/.996 in second AAA year

Yeah, other than that second trip through AAA (about 120AB) and a partial season in Single-A in 2004 we see that Melky infact IS producing rather perfectly what his MiL numbers say he should ~ maybe even higher because of the OPS in 06. Going forward a line similar to his 2007 should be expected, its what his MiL resemue says we should expect…

Ginandtacos said it best, this guy only has “upside” to Yankee fans. You can find comparable players all over the majors, most of the time they are non-respected guys who people laugh at ~ ie So Taguchi or even Jason Tyner who is already on the Twins…

(((BTW ~ F*CKING TYPEKEY!!!!!!!!!!!! Ahhhh…….)))

"Ya right, Omar isn't THAT dumb.
Got any spare Scott Kazmir's around for a Victor Zambrano?"

Wow, and you are calling other people dumb. Jim Duquette.... fuckhead

Jon Heyman was just on WFAN in NY and said NY & BOS each have one player holding up a deal. The Twins have asked for Hughes, Melky, Austin Jackson & 1 other top Pitching prospect (Horne or Marquez?). The Yanks want to sub Kennedy for Hughes. From the Sox, MIN has asked for Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie & Masterson. Sox want to sub Crisp for Ellsbury. IMO, the difference between Hughes & Kennedy is much smaller than Ellsbury vs Crisp. Hughes was rated much higher coming into this season but Kennedy dominated all 3 levels of the minors this season and posted 3 impressive starts in NY while looking very polished. Hughes had an injury plaqued Ok rookie season but showed he needs to develop more control and a better change. On the other hand Ellsbury is much more valuable than Crisp. He is 4 years younger, already a better player and makes league minimum for the next 3 yrs while Crisp makes $4.5 million. If the SOX get Twins to accept Crisp, they have oulled off a steal.

darkstar - thanks for the numbers. I just don't know how many times we have to say it but Cabrera IS NOT even LA. There are tons of players out there that are young, cheap, and just as good, if not better. The reality is that if Melky played for any team outside of NY or Boston no one would even know who he is.

The most recent update makes much more sense. A Ellsbury/Lester + another prospect seems to be much more in line with what Johan should fetch. A Hughes/Tabata + another prospect or two would be comparable from the Yankees.

And one more time, Kennedy IS NOT in the same league as Lester or Hughes. He grades out significantly worse in almost every scouting report I have read.

It is also sort of amusing to see the outraged Yankee fans talking about this "awful offer", meanwhile it was the same Yankee fans pedaling the Melky/Kennedy for Santana talks as if Bill Smith would be stupid not to jump on it. Hilarious.

No, Hughes just had a torn hamstring, and only got better as the year went on. Lester remained as mediocre as he's always been. The last time he put up good numbers (in the minors or the majors) was 2005.

It would sicken me for the Red Sox to get Santana especially without giving up Ells or Buck. I say let them have him, Santana and his declining stats and looming 7 year contract is not worth Phil Hughes. Santana will probably go down as the next (Hampton,Brown,Zito).

@matsuzakasan:

Yea, Hughes also had a no-hitter going in his 2nd start.

Until he tore that hammy which seemed to be a problem almost all Yankees pitchers last year.

Hughes = Buchholz.

@04Forever:

I agree. Cancer is nothing to joke about and even as a Yankees fan I want to see Lester back to full strength and pitching like a #2.

But I think the argument is that both Hughes and Lester were pitching hurt. Hughes wasn't even striding properly until half-way through September cause he was scared for his hammy.

Lester was weakened by chemo etc.

@walkoffblast:

I agree. Santana isn't 38. He's 28. He'll probably get better over the next year or two and then plateau off for a few more before starting his decline at ~35.

Besides, Santana probably half assed it all through the second half, barely throwing his slider in the couple of starts I saw.

--

As a Yankees fan, my only problem lies with trading Hughes.

I don't think Santana is 20 million dollars better per year over the next 6.

Hey anyone who thinks Jon Lester is a mediocre pitcher is a f'ng fool, anyone who thinks Phil Hughes is overrated is a f'ng fool. Anyone who thinks Melky Cabrera is a stud, guess what f'ng fool.

"Except on of them has pitched only pitched in 3 ML games and already has a No hitter...care to venture a guess....and Im sorry to have you as a sox fan bro....pay attention...cause I'll say this once...Buchholz has whats considered his nasty pitches a furious changeup and curveball, a 4seam fastball that reaches 97 and a 2 seam cutter in the mid 90's....check yoself or go root for the yanks"

I'm not bashing Buchholz here genius, I'm calling you a f'ng fool for knocking on Phil Hughes. You would froth at the mouth for the chance to have him on the Sox, as would anyone with a frontal lobe.
Check yoself, fo realz. Word is bond son. Douche.

Santana is simply not worth the players and the will cost over 7 years for what he's done for his past 5 seasons. Just read that Andy Pettitte is leaning towards retirement. I bet the Yankees will up the ante just to get him.

@Ripwa:

1: Kazmir.

Lester's gold if he can control his walks.

The comparisons I have seen most scouts and analyst make in terms of potential are Hughes and Lester and Joba and Buchholz. The latter group have #1 potential; the first group more #2 or #3. These are what team-independent scouts and analysts have written, not Sox or Yanks fans.

“Santana and his declining stats and looming 7 year contract is not worth Phil Hughes”

…Hummm, another amazingly unintelligent post from a Yankee fan…
(Others touched this as well but I really want to include it here to maybe stop it in the fture…)

So please explain to me these “declining stats”. You mean because he had one year that was so amazing that he hasn’t been able to duplicate it yet ~ only being able to put up amazing but not “that’s freakin near impossible” since…

But here, when you are trying to figure out what “declining stats” means, please also give an explanation of Tom Glavine also having “declining stats” up to age 28 before he took off. Same goes for John Smoltz. Schilling… You guessed it! Pedro ~ yep, he’s in this boat. Jack Morris ~ Check… Nolan Ryan ~ seems he too wasn’t able to escape the weird trend… Randy Johnson ~ seems to be no different…

So to recap, please explain how Johan, along with Glavine, Smoltz, Pedro, Morris, Schilling, Ryan, Johnson and nearly every other “great” pitcher we have ever seen has “declining stats” up to 28-30 ~ I mean, all the others only saw their best numbers yet to come…

"@Ripwa:

1: Kazmir.

Lester's gold if he can control his walks."

Lester's problem has always been those damned walks. He actually gives up very few hits, and his K/9 is pretty strong... but in his minor league career he's given up 203 BB in 484 IP... that's 3.77 BB/9. If he could translate a bit more control, lower his walks and simultaneously bump his K's a bit, he'd look incredible.

Haha damn forgot about Hamels.

You're right. Lester has the same problem Kazmir has: walks.

I get a queasy feeling everytime Kazmir pitches because I can predict his line:

5 2/3, 2H, 3ER, 10K, 4BB, 120 pitches thrown.

I hope his arm doesn't fall off.

"I hope his arm doesn't fall off."

I fear the same for Lester someday. In his first 8 starts in the majors (in 2006), Lester gave up just 13 ER on only 36 hits... but he only lasted 45 1/3 IP total (5 2/3 per game) because he threw 29 walks.

He's still only 23, though. He has time to develop better command.

hiphopjunkie, Jon Heyman did a bogus, half-assed assessment of the "odds" of teams getting Santana:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/11/29/thursday.scoop/index.html

I think he's full of sh*t, but he claims the odds are higher that the Twins keep Santana than the odds that Santana gets traded to anyone other than the Yankees or Red Sox.

Heyman's analysis is retarded:

If the Dodgers weren't so keen in pursuing Cabrera, they'd have Santana by now.

Kemp + Kershaw would seal the deal in about 5 minutes.

Then the Twins could flip Nathan for whatever 3B or RF they could pry away.

Same for the Angels:

Willits + Wood + Adenhart would win immediately.

Why are people saying Lester's stats were down last year? He actually came back stronger, atleast as far as his peripherals go. To echo Papelboner and many, the emergence of Joba and Buchholz shouldn't somehow devalue Hughes and Lester.

Echk...I just don't see how I make a trade with Boston without getting Ellsbury or Buchholz in return. Are Jon Lester and Coco Crisp really good enough to be the centerpiece to a deal of this magnitude?

Not Joe Morgan, it's just that outside of Boston, Lester was never on the same plane as Hughes/Joba/Bucholz.

Over here in NY, even before the no hitter Bucholz came across as way better than Lester ever did. Lester seems like Boston's version of Kennedy - a good guy, valued highly by the local fans, not so much by anyone else.

Lester has more of a track record so far than the other 4 I mentioned, and it really isn't anything to talk about. He's got a lot of wins, but a lousy ERA & WHIP. His season stats were almost identical to Farnsworth's (starter vs bullpen blah blah, I just happened to notice the IP/K/BB/WHIP/BAA are amazingly similiar).

"Haha... he's ignoring VORP? Does he also ignore zone ratings, whip, win shares, WARP? Does he just look at HRs, RBI, W-L?"

Here's some more Jon Heyman quotes:

"I am more interested in "wins created" than runs created."

"The idea of the MVP is to honor the player who has had the biggest positive impact on the pennant races."

"[Troy Tulowitzki is] the best shortstop in baseball at turning the double play, and he may be the best shortstop in baseball period."

Also, I swear Heyman is in Scott Boras's pocket. That, or he has a mega man-crush on A-Rod. Check this out:

http://community.livejournal.com/baseballblog/3141.html

I must be the rare NYY fan who puts Lester much closer to the Hughes/Joba/Buchholz group than I do down with Kennedy (tick below and two ticks above if I had to rate). He throws with the left arm and has better raw stuff than Ian so I'd much rather have him on my staff. As for the K/BB, he was above 2.0 headed into September; could be small sample size or could be fatigue, but I'd hardly rule out him posting above a 2.0 in the future. Still, he's only 23 (with almost a full season lost), just 7 months older than Buchholz, so there's still a ton more projection than actualization here.

jehu

I am going to go under the assumption that you are a Yankee fan. You are what make Yankee fans so hate. The same can be said about SOx and Mets fans, but thats not the point. What you said about Buchholz could be said about any rookie pitcher, that includes Joba or Hughes. Buchholz has pitched almost the exact same about of innings in the majors and more in the minors than Joba. Basically, your analysis adds nothing. You just sound like a stupid Yankee fan.

Ripwa- I'm sorry my post upset you, but I'm actually a die-hard Twins fan that despises the Yankees more than any other team. I don't want Santana to go to the Yankees and would like the see the Twins make a deal with the Red Sox because I think they match up well.

However, the fact remains that Buchholz has some history of injury problems which slightly mitigates his value. His ceiling is undeniable. My main point was to illustrate the difference between Santana- a dominant and durable pitcher- with a young, unproven talent like Buchholz.

@Not Joe Morgan:

It might. I think Beane is looking down the road, 2-3 years from now instead of next year.

I think Haren costs just as much Johan, but I'd like to have him over Johan for cost related reasons.

Kennedy/Horne/McAllister/Gardner might do it.

Gardner has excellent OBP numbers and is a prototypical leadoff hitter, so Beane might like him.

He'll also be ready in a year or so.

If we can switch Melky in for Gardner that'd be great too.

@Not Joe Morgan:

I think Cashman is still making the decisions. If the Yankees can stomach Melky in the lineup, they can stomach Damon in CF.

I prefer Haren in terms for $/win the Yankees would have to pay. I'm not one of those Yankees fans who thinks that paying ARod 30 million/year and Johan 20 million/year is no problem.

I'd rather the payroll be around 100 million which allows the team to take on bad contracts, sign extensions for youngsters etc.

I think Cashman will be smart and let Johan go if its too expensive and look at Haren.

I'd do it simultaneously (offer same packages to Twins and Oakland) and see who blinks first.

Cot's baseball you have to google it.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe just said "The Yankees are still very much in the hunt with their talks centering around Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano."

...is he guessing, or are the Yankees actually putting Cano on the block?

How can you say Haren will cost as much as Johan and then say this...

"I think Haren costs just as much Johan, but I'd like to have him over Johan for cost related reasons.

Kennedy/Horne/McAllister/Gardner might do it."

I find myself compulsively checking the internet every 10 minutes or so right now. Its sad how much of my time today has been spent uselessly thinking "I really hope we don't trade Hughes".

Was he holding Ellsbury's laptop?

Are you kidding me? The twins aren't stupid and they don't want Crisp who sucks. The Yankees have the lead on this and will probably get him. Melky is better than crisp.

"(And Crisp doesn't suck. Even when he's not hitting his speed and defense are valuable. He's not great, he doesn't suck, he's just like 75% of MLB players who are somewhere between those terms. If we had signature lines on here, that might be mine.)"

...I think its called "Maybe slightly above, but overall about average" in reference to him. The Light-hitting side evens out the speed and D quite a bit ~ pushing him almost to “Def-replacement” territory unless you need to capitalize on the speed/range to make up for your LF/RF injury-prone, wall-like fielders.

He does have the plus-side of being able to hit much better though ~ like he showed in Cleveland ~ he just needs to play LF, hit in the 8th spot and have absolutely nobody looking in his direction if you want to be able to tap into it...

If the Yankees offer Cano and Hughes, and Bill Smith turns that down, then the Minnesota fan base should be furious. This guy is gonna walk to free agency if they don't trade him, and you cant do better than Cano and Hughes. Cano is a great 2B now, who could become an elite guy with 30-35 hr power. Hughes will immediately be a good middle of the rotation starter next season, and would end up making an unreal 1-2 punch with Liriano. And if they can get Melky to play CF too, then all the better
C- Mauer
1B- Morneau
2B- Cano
3B- Punto? Someone else?
SS- Harris? Someone else?
LF- Young
CF- Cabrera
RF- Cuddyer
DH- Kubel
Rotation: Liriano, Hughes, Slowey, Bonser, Baker, Perkins

Even Red Sox Nation - aka, Evil Empire Lite - can't honestly say Lowrie is better than Cano. Cano's proved his worth in the bigs while Lowrie has 40 games of AAA experience under his belt.

Well, the comments in this thread don't seem too troubled by the fact that he only has 40 games of AAA experience. It's just laughable how great they think their prospects are. If the Evil Empires bothered to pay attention to the other 28 teams they'd realize that every one of them has about 3 guys like Lowrie in their system. Half-decent prospect, nothing special, dime a dozen.

Mark my words - there's no way Steinbrenner's baby boy is going to let the Sox beat him in his first unofficial "head to head" against them - even if it means overspending....which is exactly what Theo is aiming for.

"One other note: Peter Gammons suggests that the Sox would have to redo Josh Beckett's reasonable deal "

Why the hell would they do that? To keep him from feeling slighted? That's just stupid. It's a business. The Sox aren't just going to hand a locked-up player more cash because they're feeling guilty. If they did, they would have given Schilling $15m for 2008 instead of only guaranteeing $8m.

When the Sox gave Beckett his 3/30 deal he was in a down year and everyone said it was too much. They're not going to turn around now and admit it's too little.

"every one of them has about 3 guys like Lowrie in their system. Half-decent prospect, nothing special, dime a dozen."

Thanks for delivering the knock-out blow to yourself. That comment proved how much of an idiot you really are. Can you please name the 3 MI prospects on your favorite team that are under the age of 25 and posted a line close to 300/385/500 in AA or AAA? Ok, thats what i thought.

Where was Phil Hughes ranked on the preseason 2007 lists?

Another hypothetical: When someone is making themselves look like a complete and utter moron, do you think they're aware of it or blissfully ignorant?

"thats irrelevant...Lester was already in the bigs....and had this little thing called CHEMO and that was a comment for all the people who think they know more than the scouts do by saying Lester is Mediocre"

Kiddo, read my comments about 20 or so posts above. I've already come out and said I'm a big Lester fan. Regardless or me or you or scouts liking him, he never did (nor would he have) reached the top 5 on the lists. If he somehow morphed back into a minor leaguer right now he still wouldn't crack the top 5. He doesn't have Hughes's upside and that's necessary to become an elite prospect.

(Whats probably sad is that most Sox fans here recognize this and are debating whether or not to join me in calling you out for stupidity.)