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« Odds and Ends: Fukudome, Burrell, Furcal, Rolen | Main | 2008 Top 50 Free Agents »
Rockies Expect A Quiet Offseason
Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus recently wrote in reference to the Rockies:
Teams that overachieve expectations tend to keep everything in place, and in fact that’s exactly what Charlie Monfort is saying. This is likely to be one of the bigger misplays of the offseason.
Indeed, no one is expecting any kind of shake-up or blockbuster. That said, Tracy Ringolsby indicates that teams will inquire on Brian Fuentes and Garrett Atkins over the next few months. The free agent market for closers and third basemen isn't robust.
Ringoslby notes that Josh Fogg may seek the Jason Marquis special - three years, $21MM. The Rockies will pass, instead entertaining bringing Jason Jennings back.
The Rockies are also expected to sign a veteran catcher to help Chris Iannetta along. Ringolsby names Yorvit Torrealba, Jason Kendall, and Paul Lo Duca as the options. Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post names the same trio.
Renck adds that the Rockies will attempt to re-sign Kaz Matsui and Matt Herges soon as well. Renck mentions that the team has also gotten in touch with Shawn Chacon's agent. Chacon came up through the Rockies system but was traded to the Yankees in July of 2005.
What do you think about this plan? Should the Rockies make a major free agent strike or trade instead?
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They've got such a solid young core I don't think it's necessary to shake things up. Why pay big money for Josh Fogg when you could get Jennings? I like the idea of bringing someone in to help Ianetta along.
No need for a big splash in my opinion. You're going to need that extra revenue if you want to resign Matt Holliday.
Posted by: Paul | November 05, 2007 at 10:50 AM
They need to lock up whoever they can and not worry about shaking things up too much. They were good this year, and they'll be GREAT in the next few with this young core of players.
Posted by: FineHamAbounds | November 05, 2007 at 11:02 AM
read that the rox are moving stewart to 2b in the fall, as a backup plan to losing kaz. as long as that works (which, seeing that Stewart is a career 3b, might be tough), they could have the best one of the best IFs in all of baseball.
Posted by: disinterested | November 05, 2007 at 11:11 AM
I think the Rox are playing this exactly right. Jennings would be a smart aquisition and Chacon to a minor league deal couldn't hurt. I do think however that they need to take a chance on one of the free agent starters ... maybe Colon or Wolf. Defense and pitching wins championships, and we all have seen their amazing defense already.
Posted by: bleed DODGER blue | November 05, 2007 at 11:21 AM
I think they should deal Atkins for a legitimate starting pitcher. How about Ervin Santana, Ian Snell, Boof Bonser, Matt Garza, Jon Garland, or Jake Westbrook?
Posted by: thenockmlb | November 05, 2007 at 11:22 AM
On second thought, I'd rather take a flyer on one or two reclamation projects instead of trading Atkins for a pitcher that wouldn't be any better than someone like Wolf or Colon, as Dodger blue said.
Posted by: thenockmlb | November 05, 2007 at 11:26 AM
I'd re-sign Kaz (2-3 year, tops) and consider an incentive-laden deal for Jennings.
Meantime, they need to try to lock up Holliday before he hits free agency (if Boras will allow it). If that's possible I'd consider dealing Atkins and give Stewart a chance at the 3B job. Plus, I've read that the Phils like Fuentes ... whatever you can get for that guy, do it!
Posted by: ink-stained scribe | November 05, 2007 at 11:41 AM
thenock, how about Snell for Stewart, not Atkins. The Pirates would much rather have Stewart right now as he is left handed and cheaper.
Posted by: kett08 | November 05, 2007 at 11:43 AM
Good luck with locking down Holliday. Boras is going to be taking him to FA - you can count on it.
As great as Holliday is please remember he is one who suffers through insane split differentials. In 2007 here is what it looked like:
(H) .376/.435/.722/1.157
(A) .310/.374/.485/.859
His numbers over the past 3 years (in terms of difference) have been about the same. You can subtract at least .200 off his home OPS if he signs away from Colorado.
Suddenly Holliday doesn't look like a $20m+ hitter to me.
Posted by: bjsguess | November 05, 2007 at 11:52 AM
bjsguess,
Agreed, he doesn't look like a $20MM hitter, but he's the face of the franchise. He sells tickets. And given all the bad PR the Monforts have had over the years -- some justified -- they'd really tick off the fan base if they lost him and had not made very public overtures to him during this offseason or the next.
The Monforts restored an atmosphere of excitement that's been absent here for more than a decade, and they need to somehow maintain it.
Posted by: ink-stained scribe | November 05, 2007 at 12:03 PM
Atkins+Spilborghs+Jiminez=Bedard?
Posted by: DGU | November 05, 2007 at 12:04 PM
Replace Jimenez with Morales, and the Rockies would have themselves a deal.
Posted by: Bravesfan18 | November 05, 2007 at 02:49 PM
I'm with DGU...I'd try to make a big splash with one of those young pitchers mentioned in the previous few posts.
Bedard, Kazmir, or Lincecum (although less so because he's in the division) would be an excellent 1-2 punch with Francis. I don't know the Rockies team that well (much less their farm) so I can't name names, but a big splash with a good power pitcher is exactly what they need.
Posted by: Something Profound | November 05, 2007 at 03:08 PM
I think they are crazy if they don't heavily explore trading Atkins. If they can get Garza/Kennedy/Lester and a minor leaguer and have more money to spend on the bullpen they could add several wins next year.
Posted by: craigos | November 05, 2007 at 04:46 PM
I put Jimenez in there instead of Morales, because I'm not sure I'd trade Morales. With Jimenez, it's time to sell high, I think.
The whole Ian Stewart to 2B thing strikes me as cover so that they can say, "Well, we're not so sure we want to trade Atkins... he's a part of this great team makeup... etc. etc." Why in the world would the Rockies, who clearly prize defense, keep a 1B at 3B and move a 3B to 2B when that 1B at 3B has to have a ton of trade value in a market where someone is thinking of giving Mike Lowell four years?
Posted by: DGU | November 05, 2007 at 05:06 PM
The Mets have a problem. They have all this money with the new stadium, SNY, attendance and revenue being up, contracts like Tom Glavine and Shawn Green coming off the books this year, and contracts like Pedro Martinez and Carlos Delgado possibly coming off the books next year. But they haven't found a suitable place to spend it. They could make a big play at A-Rod, but they have younger and cheaper franchise players in the two positions he could play already. They could have made a big run at Barry Zito last year, but look how that worked out.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if Omar Minaya is hedging his bets on the trade market now. If he wants to be aggressive, he could put together the best possible package of prospects he has and go after some of the young big name pitchers who he can lock up via extension. Or, he could get greedy. There are so many pitchers likely to be floated on the trade market that he may pass during the offseason and let some other big market teams sell off their big trade chips. Then, once the deadline hits, and teams are competing more over rentals, Omar could try to swoop in and offer a package somewhere in between what he'd pay now and what another team might pay for a rental.
It seems its either that, a play on A-Rod, or a prayer that Santana reaches FA. The Mets have enough money to compete on any player right now and possibly still fall in under the luxury tax line.
Posted by: MEddler | November 05, 2007 at 08:03 PM
MEddler -
Interesting analysis of the Mets. If they could trade Delgado, do you think they would sign A-Rod to play 1B? Given the lack of FA LH-pop, maybe there'd even be a market for Delgado.
Posted by: DGU | November 06, 2007 at 02:02 AM