Johan Santana Rumors

@Kosh

Whoa, Whoa, come on now.

Who could have foretold Renteria folding like a deck of cards? His stats bear out with him being an elite SS. Still is.

Drew made up for things in the playoffs. Jury's still out there.

Clement was league average in '05. The guy got hit in the head by a line drive and an arm injury shut him down in '06. Go back and look at that FA class of '05 pitchers and tell me Carl Pavano was a better buy.

Lugo, I'll give you.

My point was this. The Red Sox don't give long term deals to old guys. Varitek and Lowell they did as a hole would have been created and there wasn't anything better to replace them with in free agency. Varitek is still one of the best catchers in the league. You think Posada will be doing what he did this year in 2010? How about Rivera?

the red sox offer is clearly better! hughes is good, but the rest of the yankees offer gives the twins NOTHING! take ellsbury and lowrie, and the 2 prospects...we need hitting! then, trade nathan for a major league ready pitcher and a 3B prospect!

The Twins did acquire Craig Monroe a few weeks ago. Assuming the Twins get Ellsbury, they could have an outfield of:

LF - Monroe/Kubel
CF - Ellsbury
RF - D. Young

and move Cuddyer to 3B. Makes sense? That would be a pretty good outfield, while filling that 3B hole.

Looks like the server took a coffee break there.

@joyofsox

As I recall, a lot of folks in your neck of the woods foretold Renteria folding. They thought he was a bad fit for Boston and that the proven success of OC was a much safer bet. They were right.

I think you're being generous about the impact of Drew's grand slam. The Sox probably had the series won at that point anyway. But it's not just making up for the bad season. He is widely viewed as a terrible fit for Boston, moreso than Renteria.

If you want to argue that your team has avoided long-term deals (though your extension of Lowell through 2010 can be compared to the Posada/River scenarios), you make a fairer point that I could agree with. I didn't like the Damon contract. I didn't like the new Mussina contract (I had no problem with the original one though). The owner overpaid for Giambi when the GM didn't want him (though there were some extenuating circumstances there just as there were with Clement). The Matsui deal, though, is exempt from any financial scrutiny because of the amount of money he makes the team.

The only reason Yankees fans are hoping the Red Sox get Santana is because they know that the Sox are the front runners to get him with the addition of Ellsbury and they are trying to save face now.

What these people don't realize is that they are expecting alot - maybe too much - out of Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy. Be honest - in a seven game playoff series, what rotation scares you more: the Sox with Santana or the Yankees with Haren. Think about that.

FYI - Haren will cost the Yankees just as much as Johan in terms of players. So figure Hughes is gone. That leaves it as follows:

Yankees - Haren/Wang/Mussina/Joba/Kennedy

Sox - Santana/Beckett/Dice-K/Schilling/Wakefield or Buchholz or Lester

That's not even close.

"I suppose they could trade Tavarez, and then run Beckett/ Santana/ Matsuzaka/ Schilling/ Lester, put Wake in the pen and let Buchholz get another year at AAA with the occasional ML spot start. Or Put Buchholz in and run a 6-man rotation like they discussed. But both seem to sell Buchholz a bit short - he's ML ready now."

I don't think Tavarez is even for consideration as a starter. He was in the bullpen for years before and will go back to being a very effective middle reliever. And I think you could find enough starts for the other six guys over the course of the year because the odds that you can keep a 5 man rotation in tact for a full season is extremely unlikely, especially with two old guys like Wakefield and Schilling. I think you could find enough starts for Lester and Buchholz, and Buchholz probably couldn't even go for 33-34 starts anyways, he's still pretty young. But if you could get him 20-25 starts and then insert him into the rotation next year, that'd work out fine to me

"though your extension of Lowell through 2010 can be compared to the Posada/River scenarios"

I don't think it's an accurate comparison. Lowell will be 36 when his contract ends; Posada will be 40, Rivera will be 41. The Yankees have already admitted that, because of Posada's health, he'll probably end up at 1B or DH for the last couple years of his deal; Lowell hasn't shown any signs of slowing, and barring something dramatic he should be able to play 3B all three years of his deal. (I'll reserve judgment on Rivera, I haven't seen any indication that health is an issue for him).

And I think Drew's actual impact on the series was minimal, but he definitely bought himself back into the good graces of a lot of fans with that slam. He had a strong Sept and hit very well in the postseason and a lot of people put high stock in postseason performance, so he looks a lot better than he did in August. I don't think he's a "terrible fit" for boston; he's always been an OBP guy which is a huge part of why they signed him, and he did manage to OBP .373 in 2007, which is above league average. If he can get nearer his career .390 OBP next year, and flash a bit more power (he definitely slumped there, his SLG was down to .423 where his career SLG is .500) then I think he'll fit in fine. He handled defense in RF pretty well, especially considering that Fenway's a quirky OF to play.

"I don't think Tavarez is even for consideration as a starter. He was in the bullpen for years before and will go back to being a very effective middle reliever. And I think you could find enough starts for the other six guys over the course of the year because the odds that you can keep a 5 man rotation in tact for a full season is extremely unlikely, especially with two old guys like Wakefield and Schilling. I think you could find enough starts for Lester and Buchholz, and Buchholz probably couldn't even go for 33-34 starts anyways, he's still pretty young. But if you could get him 20-25 starts and then insert him into the rotation next year, that'd work out fine to me"

No, Tavarez definitely wouldn't get a start with the Sox barring several injuries. But I've been saying for a while that he could be league-average for a NL team. That's totally worth $3.85m (his 2008 cost), and for only a 1-year commitment some team should jump on it. the Sox might manage to net a decent prospect for Tavarez if they shop him that way.

As for the rotation, I agree that the depth would probably be a benefit. the Sox figured out in 2006 that there's never too much pitching; I need to remember that.

Kosh,

What's "afloat" to you? Going to the WS?

Liriano and a bunch of #2 may not do it in big market teams like sox and yanks. I am sure hardened Twins fan and frugal ownership is used to that. They are trading for 2009&2010, not win the WS next year.

A low budget team
have a bunch of #2s to fill my #3-5... sounds good to me.

@matsuzakasan

If you're going to insist on being nasty, I'm not discussing anything more with you. And I have reported your post to the admin.

@Haile

As I said, only the best of that group is a potential #2. Frankly, I see more back-end guys in that group. Bonser hasn't given you a lot to be hopeful about. And Baker? I don't see much better than a #5 in him. I've heard next to nothing about the minor leaguers. Is there really anything about them to suggest front-end potential?

Phill Hughes is a Santana type. He is projected to kick butt. I hope he goes to an American league team. I would not like to see him play for the Mets and then My mediocre Cardinals would have no prayer in the playoffs. I bet the reason a deal is not done yet is because of the Liriono factor. They probably want to know all they can about him before they make a decision. Looks like he is gonna be a Yankee though. They have all the best players that money can buy.

Can't blame Johan for wanting his 150 million dollar extension this winter... why risk another 20+ starts until the deadline.

My question is:

How much of a discount are the Yanks gonna get this winter as opposed to next winter on the open market??

Santana is THE BEST pitcher in the past 10 years; he is obviously worth Phill Hughes. Hell, he is worth 5 Phill Hughes..... ask the Cubs, Cards and a laundry list of other teams how much "can't miss young studs" are worth these days".

But the Yanks are essentially getting one year of Santana and then the right to extend him to an outrageous deal in exchange for a wealth of inexpensive talent.

IMHO this deal is only worth it if Santana is willing to take significantly less this winter (like 25 million less). My guess is he is, or at least should be.

Yanks should pull the plug. Santana is a great pitcher, but they can't trade the farm for him just to has the right to pay $20 million a year.

"One way or another, this is all going to play out this week at the Winter meetings.

Here's how it'll probably all go down:

1)With Ellsbury now in the mix, the Yankees relent on both their "hard stance" and their "deadline" talk and add Horne to the package of Hughes and Cabrera.

2)Being this close to nabbing the best pitcher on the planet, the Red Sox relent and throw an Ellsbury/Lester/Lowrie/Bowden package at the Twins.

3)Because Jackson is apparently the second coming of Griffey Jr (having played great ball in Single A), the Yankees take another "hard stance" and threaten to set yet another "deadline" if their offer of Hughes, Cabrera and Horne isn't accepted.

4)Bill Smith and Theo Epstein share a laugh about "hard stances", "deadlines", and "untouchable AA prospects" while Johan's people work out a new 6 year contract with the Boston Red Sox.

5)Taking a "We'll Show You Guys" attitude, The Yankees begin trade talks with Billy Beane about Dan Haren, offering Kennedy, Cabrera, and a low level prospect who is not one of their "untouchables" liss, a list that has now grown to 76 players.

6)Knowing he has New York by their "yankees", Billy Beane counters with Hughes, Horne, and Jackson since Cabrera isn't overrated anywhere outside of the Bronx. This time, it's Billy Beane who sets the "deadline".

7)The Yankees relent from their "hard stance" and send Hughes, Horne, and Jackson to Oakland for Dab Haren.

8)The Boston Red Sox win their second World Series in as many seasons behind the dominating performances of their 1-2 punch of Santana and Beckett.

9)Upon realzing that he no longers pitches in the most pitcher friendly park in baseball, Haren's ERA balloons into the low 5's.

But that's just my opinion.

hahahhahaha"

- Somehow I had a feeling that when I got to the end of that post your username would be something to do with the Redsox.

I don't really want Dab Haren.

Yankees - Take your deadline and go and try to find another pitcher. You're not going to bully the twins into taking a horrible offer.

The TWINS don't need to trade Santana. I don't know why all these people say it has to get done. If they trade him, it will be done on their terms, not the idiot Yankees front office telling them to take it or leave it! Give me a break!

The TWINS ARE GOING TO TAKE A DEAL THEY WANT, NOT A DEAL THEY HAVE TO SETTLE FOR!!!! Why can't some of you figure that out! The Yankees pathetic offer of Hughes and Cabrera plus your crappy SS at AAA is not enough for Santana, just admit it. So get over it!

I'm sure all the veterans on the Yankees are glad to hear that we are going to keep all these young guys so we will be good in a few years - face it, your team is old and by the time your veterans are washed up, so will the Yankees. You are counting on all these young "studs" to bail you out - do you even have a clue as to how many prospects actually pan out? Typical Yankee fan ignorance!

Go ahead and bark up the A's tree for Dan Haren. You are going to get the same response - Hughes and Cabrera is not even close. Every one is baseball knows Cabrera is a simple piece and not a superstar and never will be! Get over it!

As for the Red Sox - same thing! The Twins are not going to take Ellsbury plus Masterson and some other prospect. Why would they?

Once Miguel Cabrera is traded, the Dodgers or Angels will enter the mix as well. The loser will have all those prospects they were going to trade in the Cabrera deal to trade to the twins, which in both cases, is a hell of a lot more than what both of you are offering.

Tyler....what makes you think the yanks would be that retarded. First of all we wouldn't trade more for haren than we would johan. The Yankees have had the best off season out of all the teams. They signed arod and all there other star players. And now there going to get johan and still have chamberlain and ian kennedy.

@ themfightn

In this case, they don't really need the twins to believe them. They just have to stay strong and then pull the plug. I do not like trading Hughes and if the twins aren't impressed, let them have ellsbury. I can't believe that a coco crisp / lester package was really the only alternative they had up until now, and they want more than Hughes.

Other than the A-Rod thing, which I think most people understand given the whole Boras fiasco, I think most GMs take Cashman pretty seriously.

"Brosius I can appreciate you trying to defend your team but I can tell you that outside of NY, people view the way that the Yankees negotiate as horrible."

Yeah, because I'm sure you have a lot of insight into what other GM's think of the Yankees.

Phil Hughes is the best pitching prospect in baseball, so if he's not enough for Minnesota, screw them. Haren for Kennedy+Cabrera+Gonzalez would be better than Hughes+Cabrera+Horne/Gonzalez/Jackson/Tabata/Betances anyway.

they put a trade deadline for tomorrow night, ha...ahaha.....wahahahahaaahaaaahhaaa

ahhhahhahhahhaaa!!!!!!

who the hell are they kidding

LOL at you Yankees fans. If you think Bill Smith is being stubborn try Billy Beane. He has no obligation to trade Haren. Consider yourselves quite lucky to get Blanton for that package.

Are Sox fans still so obsessed that they overanalyze Yankee imposed deadlines? C'mon, kids. You've got 2 titles in 4 years, ease up a bit.

Most Sox have more hate for the yankees than they do love for their own team. They care more about yankee losses than redsox wins.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=3138707

Check out the 2nd paragraph.

That's one small quote for Hank, one giant leap backwards for my respect for the yankees.

Does Hank have some sort of complex? Retarded.

We already knew he was a tool so I'm actually happy about that quote. If Hank decides that not making this trade is his version of a tough guy stance, I'm happy.

Hank's cry out for love? Cry of desperation before handing over Twins' demands? Sounds like a kid who is losing a fight in the school yard during lunch.

According to Mark above, Hank's ruse worked on Afraud. I can just see the Twins crawl back to him after reading those quotes. Sure.

NJM, I don't really care if he is a tool. It's the way he conveyed the stuff that's retarded.

As owner of a legendary franchise, he should have some minimal command of language befitting of its spokeman.

Hal has been silent. May be he is the smarter of the two.

When is it going to be known to everyone, including Red Sox fans, that Minnesota doesn't want Crisp? He's $5M and doesn't hit. No way the Twins will take him in place of Ellsbury.

You have to remember, Hank had zero interest in running the Yankees. The Big Stien was leaving the team to his son-in-law Steve Swindal before he cheated on Stein's daughter and broke up the marriage. Hank probably just remembers how his dad used to run things and thinks that's the way to go. Maybe he'll figure out it doesn't work that way anymore. Or, hopefully for Red Sox fans, he won't.

HANK! EITHER FIRE BRIAN CASHMAN AND NAME YOURSELF GM OR LET THE GUY DO HIS JOB!!!

HE IS SMARTER THAN YOU!

If he thinks he's helping this situation, he's got a lot to learn. I think other teams/agents are realizing Hank can be had. As soon as the talks to the media, he weakens his position in a negotiation. Happened with Arod and it's happening here.

A. He's making a strong stance with the Twins who have been happily playing the Yankees and Red Sox against each other. He's got to take a stand and do so publicly.

B. Only Red Sox fans and other Yankees haters believe A-Rod got over on the Yankees. Boras and A-Rod were after $300-$350 million guaranteed salary. He got $275 - a half million more than he was going to make over the next three seasons.

And gogpalehose, you're obviously not caught up on old George history. George would have given A-Rod $300+ million in base salary plus incentives. He would have re-signed Torre and he would have traded away Hughes, Kennedy, Cabrera, Jackson and Tabata to get Santana and then signed him to 7 year extension at $150 million.

Santana has said he'd like to be a Yankee & would waive his "no-trade".

Does he also want to go to Boston - thereby he'll waive his "no-trade" to go there ???

Half his games with the 'Green Monster' over his shoulder facing right-handed batters; is this what he would really want ??? (say - money being equal both in Bost. & NY )

If Minn. structured a deal with Bost. - could Santana still nix the deal ???

BTW...last time I checked the Red Sox prospects were worse? Buchholz pitched a no hitter and is 2-0 in his career, Lester is 11-2, Pedroia won Rookie of the Yeah and Ellsbury was one of the spark plugs that helped us win our second World Series in 4 three years!

Last time I checked, Hughes missed half the season with a hammy and Jaba the Hut pooped his pants on the Cleveland mound because of some flies!

Check your facts Hanky!

Guys...the sticking point is obviously the players! Its funny cause you think that the sticking point is the contract, but Hanky Panky is talking specifically to the Twins. I actually think its comical to say that the Yankees have better prospects then the Yankees. Its funny! The guy is a clown and I expect to see Brian Cashman resign very soon!

"B. Only Red Sox fans and other Yankees haters believe A-Rod got over on the Yankees. Boras and A-Rod were after $300-$350 million guaranteed salary. He got $275 - a half million more than he was going to make over the next three seasons."

Um, not really. Before A-Rod opted out, the Yankees were reportedly going to offer him a 5/140 extension, for a total of 8/221. Minus the $21m the Rangers would pay, and that's 8/200, or $25m per year.

Instead, A-Rod got a BASE of 10/275... so, 2.75m per year more, and for two years longer. And that's not counting the $40m-plus he can make in bonuses.

I'm not saying that I think A-Rod fleeced the Yankees or vice-versa. Actually I think it was all choreographed so no one faction would lose too much face. but they pretty much split the difference between the Yankees reported offer and the insane $350m Boras quoted.

Supposedly Hughes+Cabrera+Gonzalez would be sufficient. I wouldn't give up Ohlendorf unless he was one of several guys to replace Hughes in the deal; Ross is going to be in the late innings, I'm tellin ya. Set-up man? Probably. 7th inning guy? Definitely. They have no one else.

I recall Ohlendorf getting a couple innings late last year and showing show pretty good movement on his pitches. I agree that it appeared like he was gonna be able to have an impact fairly soon. The Yanks probably would prefer to give up one of the guys they got for Gary Sheffield (Whelan, Sanchez)

New update from Nick Cafardo, who's in Nashville for the GM meetings:

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/

Not much new yet, except for this:

"the Yankees, according to sources, are taking a similar approach to Boston: Take Hughes and maybe Melky Cabrera, but don't expect much after that."

So it sounds like the third prospect would be kind of a no-name. Sounds like the Sox offer is better after all.

While Torre is gone and obviously has no say in what goes on, he went to Ohlendorf in a critical late inning (close game) during the postseason, and that speaks highly of the Princeton grad.

Know what I'm noticing? The longer this has gone on, the more obnoxious the Red Sox fans have become. They are pretty must just attacking everyone elses OPINION, with more insults than actual facts. Especially this misinformed fan who calls himself wildo05. I think we should act like adults and have a debate filled with facts rather than attacks filled with garbage, just my opinion though.

"BTW...last time I checked the Red Sox prospects were worse? Buchholz pitched a no hitter and is 2-0 in his career, Lester is 11-2, Pedroia won Rookie of the Yeah and Ellsbury was one of the spark plugs that helped us win our second World Series in 4 three years!

Last time I checked, Hughes missed half the season with a hammy and Jaba the Hut pooped his pants on the Cleveland mound because of some flies!

Check your facts Hanky!"

Just because Hughes was hurt (with a hammy AND rolled his ankle while rehabbing) and Joba pitched poorly in 1 or 2 innings in the playoffs doesn't mean they aren't better prospects. I'm a huge Red Sox fan and even I can say thats a ridiculous stance. Hughes and Joba both have #1 potential. I know you like the Red Sox, but it's ok to look at a player and judge them on their skills and potential and not bash them just because they wear pinstripes.

With that said, I think our offer is slightly ahead of the Yanks offer at this time, which is exactly what Theo wants. He's willing to do this deal, and is completely comfortable with letting the Yanks trump his offer and give up too much. Our offer(s) are perfect as they are and shouldn't be upgraded. If the Yanks want to go nuts and throw multiple blue chip prospects for Johan, thats fine.

Yankees probably wouldn't part with any of their blue chips for Nathan. No Kennedy, Jackson, Tabata, etc. Good chance that he doesn't sign an extension with whatever team he plays with next year and hits free agency.

I could see them giving up one of those guys for Nathan.

If Nathan got traded to the Yankees I promise you they would lock him up longterm. Not only would they want him as a dominating set up man, but if Rivera ever falters or at least when he retires then Nathan can come fill in for him immediately. Still don't think the Twins would trade Nathan to the Yankees dont see that happening

Thanks Papelboner, finally a Red Sox fan for the first time in a while that makes a good point. Hey Red Sox fans know whose good? Papelbon,Okajima, Beckett, Manny, Ortiz, Pedroia....uh oh, maybe I'm a Red Sox fan. People need to stop being ignorant to actual facts. It doesn't matter what uniform they where, because they can still be good.

@Not Joe Morgan

I haven't heard much about Nathan's availability? How available is he, because he is a good option. Not only for the Yankees, but for other teams, and for Twins, because they could get good prospects in return. If they trade Nathan though, they are in danger of scaring fans away because of a firesale, though keeping Mauer and Morneau would help keep it intact, because I doubt they are going anywhere.

Yeah, but I think a cheap alternative to the big reliever trades is Baltimore. Jaime Walker is owed money and is old. Swap a decent minor leaguer for him and take his salary of the Orioles' books. Kiko Calero of Oakland could be had pretty easily I would think. It would also be worth asking the Padres on Heath Bell and Cla Meredith, but those two guys would be more expensive.

Ellsbury's more valuable than Lester alright.

Well time for bed I'll check this tomorrow. I just hope the Yanks don't do something completely stupid while I'm asleep.

JD, i think pretty much everyone has conceded that Ellsbury is more valuable, especially to the Twins, than Lester