Johan Santana Rumors: Wednesday

i cant wait till this whole thing is over....pity doesnt look like its going to be soon.

You'd think this would be more straightforward. I don't understand what there is to negotiate.

Lets go for another 297 comments on this thread.

it's almost 2:30 in the morning EST, and there's STILL no deal between the Twins and the Red Sox. i'm only wondering if there're more problems than the the reporting has let on.

Shocking Peter Gammons getting something wrong...

Not just Peter Gammons, I wonder what could be holding this deal up?

Ok, I really think Minn is trying to drag their feet a bit now knowing that the Hank’ees almost have to jump back into the picture...

I mean after watching Det boost their offense, the team has to be worried about even making the playoffs at this point. I can’t imagine Hank wants to be remembered as the guy who ruined something like a 14year streak in his first year of control. We all know he wants to actually prove he can stand behind his word this time around, but it’s the worst possible situation to be proving it with and he has to start to realize that eventually. Johan helps them tremendously, hurts Boston by keeping him away from them and gives them a true Ace to counteract the Bos/Det/Cle/Ana offenses… Hughes+Melky+Horne/Jackson still gets it done I imagine, the guy really almost has to put it on the table...

that's right.. it didn't occur to me.. maybe the Detroit acquisition of Willis/Cabrera has affected the Santana negotiations somehow

Man, I wish the Twins could be in the National League. The AL is getting crazy. NL Central, if you are .500 going into September, you have a great shot at the playoffs.

Are we going to see a 95 win team NOT make the playoffs?

The Herald is contradicting itself I think...

Rotoworld say the Sox and Twins stopped negotiating and didn't feel the urgency to make a deal. Now Silverman is saying the Sox and Twins are talking in the "wee hours"

thats how i interpreted it

Link:http://bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1048907#articleFull

if the sox are willing to give the twins both ellsbury and crisp does this mean there going to go after andruw jones?

Man has this thing turned into a soap opera. I'm partially worried about the Red Sox having the best right-hander in baseball, AND the best left-hander. But I'm also concerned about trading Hughes and possibly Kennedy. Not to mention that Santana gave up I think it was 33 homeruns last year. Anyone would be crazy to NOT want him, but my heart can't take a whole lot more of this crap. GET IT DONE!

"best right-hander in baseball, AND the best left-hander."

I think people over value Beckett a little. He had a great year, no doubt. And he has had other very good years. But this it the first time that he finished in the top ten for the Cy Young award. And his 2006 season was nothing to write home about. Calling him the best right-hander in baseball is a stretch.

And Santana at Fenway may not be all the Red Sox are dreaming. He has always been a fly ball pitcher. A lefty fly-ball pitcher at Fenway is likely to see his HR totals increase. Given that he gave up more HRs than anyone in the AL league this year it is possible that a lot of balls will be landing in those coveted seats atop the Green Monster.

Granted, there isn't a team in baseball that will look forward to facing Santana, Beckett, and Dice-K all in a row but it is not unbeatable. Because of the back of the rotation depth (Bucholz and Schilling), they will likely win well over 100 games during the regular season and the division. But they may not be as impossible to beat in a playoff situation as some people are projecting.

Maybe I'm just being a foolish fan, but I remember how the baseball world viewed the Yankees after the 2000 season. They had just won three WS in a row and then added Mike Mussina. A guy who at the time was 30 (close to Santana's age), came in 6th in the Cy Young ballot the previous year (Santana was 5th this year), and came in 2nd in the Cy Young balloting the year before that (Santana obviously won it in 2006). I'm not saying Mussina was as good in 2000 as Santana is now, but they are not as far off from each other as you may think. Plus, I would argue that the 2000 Yankees team was a more dominant team than the 2007 Red Sox team. All-in-all, it didn't work out for the Yankees the way the baseball world thought is would after the Mussina signing. And it may not work out the way the baseball world is viewing the Red Sox after this off season.

"Plus, I would argue that the 2000 Yankees team was a more dominant team than the 2007 Red Sox team."

Strike that thought. The 2000 team was not that great even though they won the series. But I would still argue that the core of the 2000 Yankees' team compares favorably to the core of the current Red Sox team.

I saw how dominant Josh Beckett was last year, and I think it was just a matter of him reaching his potential. Could he regress next year, closer to his 2006 numbers? Absolutely. But I still would place him as probably the best righty in baseball right now.

As for Johan, the only saving grace in this for Yankee fans like me, assuming that he does go to Boston, is his numbers at Fenway. I think his career ERA there is something close to 6. Is he beatable? Certainly. But when your career WORST is 15-13 with a 3.30 ERA (something close to that), that's pretty sick. You obviously can't crown anyone the champion based on what the numbers are on paper, and I'm very comfortable with a rotation of Pettitte, Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes and Mussina, but it's undeniable that the Red Sox would have a sick amount of depth in the rotation.

I'd also like to say that I think comparing Moose of 2000 to Santana of 2007 or 2008 is a bit of a stretch. Moose has never won a Cy, he's never won 20 games, he's never been over-powering, and he has not been even close to a true ace since he was in Baltimore. Even then, he was only the ace because the Orioles had no pitching (hard to believe eh?).

I really don't think the Twins are waiting on the Hankees. The Red Sox have offered a much better package. The hold up is the technical part which isn't very technical. The two teams have practically slept together for the past 3 or 4 days, this needs to get done today. I'm not worried about Ryan Kalish, and if he is type of player the Twins are looking for to finalize this, find two more prospects like him not named Kalish. and add them and make it a 6-1 trade for all I care.

How is the Red Sox offering much better than the Yankees? Phil Hughes is a former #1 pick, Kennedy has #3 stuff, Melky Cabrera led all of baseball in outfield assists last year, and Austin Jackson hit well over .300 in the minors. I don't get it.

Jason, you are underestimating Mussina in his Baltimore years. Wins are the least useful measure of a pitcher. He finished 6th in the Cy Young in 2000 despite having a losing record (11-15). That tells you something about how good he was. And as I mentioned the year before that he was second in the Cy Young. He was a true ACE in the 1999-2000 years. It is just hard to imagine him as that given his current standing. (Side note of interest: even with his recent slide, Mussina has a lower career ERA than Becket and Mussina never pitched in teh NL.)

That being said, I am not suggesting that the 2000 Mussina is the equal of Santana. I am suggesting that the differences are not as great as our perceptions might believe and that pre-season views of starting rotations often end up looking silly come the next year. Case in point, how many people out there thought Dice K was going to win the Cy Young this year? Finish in the top 5? I bet a lot (including myself) thought he had a solid shot at the former and was a near lock for the latter.

I never expected much from Dice-K. He actually did BETTER than I expected.

Moose's 1999 and 2000 numbers:

18-7, 3.50, 1.27
11-15, 3.79, 1.19

Santana's 2007 and 2006 numbers:

19-6, 2.77, 1.00
15-13, 3.33, 1.07

Moose - 29-22 (.569), 3.65 1.23
Johan - 34-19 (.642), 3.04 1.03

While I agree that wins aren't the biggest deciding factor for a pitcher's effectiveness, Johan's winning PCT far exceeds Moose's, he has greater than half a run on Moose, and the WHIP is significantly lower. I think the differences are quite obvious.

As for Moose's career ERA, 3.70, compared to 3.74 for Beckett. Is .04 REALLY that much?

Moose IMO is greater over-rated.

Bill Madden is saying that the Twins were willing to accept Hughes, Cabrera and two lower tier prospects but that Cash convinced Hank and Hal it wasn't worth the dollars:

Link: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2007/12/05/2007-12-05_brian_cashman_yanks_balk_at_millions_and.html

"Believe it or not, the final decision not to go through with a deal that was on the table - one that would have sacrificed Hughes, Melky Cabrera, 23-year-old Double-A righthander Jeff Marquez and 22-year-old A-ball third baseman Mitch Hilligoss - was based on money."

First of all, I am a Yankees fan and I find the notion that the Yankees are concerned about money to be laughable. Like Madden says further in the article, the Yankees will have nearly $80 million in payroll fall off the books after the 2008 season.

If the Twins were agreeable to this trade proposal, the Yankees have got to pull the trigger on it.

I like Phil Hughes. I've seen him pitch enough to know the kid has great stuff. But he's still a question mark as all prospects are. His MLB work is too limited to make any final judgments. Sure, he may turn out to be a stud that wins 200+ games in his career. The point is, nobody knows.

With Santana, the Yankees know what they are getting. And that is one of the best pitchers in baseball who is still relatively young, and will win 18+ games a year for the next 3-4 years at least.

@Jay C

Wow i find that package hard to believe, because it seems that the Twins would have caved alot. If that was an actual deal then Cashman is holding on to his prospects way to tightly, and honestly should be fired for vetoing that gift of a deal for the yankees.

@ Jason

"As for Johan, the only saving grace in this for Yankee fans like me, assuming that he does go to Boston, is his numbers at Fenway."

I totally agree. As a Twins fan, I think Johan is a MUCH better fit for the Yankees. As a left-hander with a great change-up, he will DOMINATE in Yankee Stadium. Left-handed hitters aren't able to pull the ball with much success against him because he keeps them off balance by mixing his 94 MPH fastball with the wicked change-up. As someone mentioned earlier, he does give up a lot of fly balls...but that's no big deal given the cavernous left/center fields of Yankee Stadium. He did give up 33 homeruns last year, but many of those homeruns would have been fly-outs if he was pitching at Yankee Stadium rather than the homerdome.

Last year he was 15-13....with a 3.30 ERA. Of your starters last year, Wang had the best ERA at 3.80, and he won 19 games. Santana won 15 games for the lowly Twins, how many could he win with that Yankee lineup behind him? 25? Not to mention you finally get an ace to pit against BOS, ANA, DET, CLE. This is why I don't understand the Yankee's position here. If you don't want to give up Hughes and Kennedy, that's fine. But to hold this deal up over Horne/Jackson? Who won't crack your lineup for 4-5 years, MAYBE? This makes no sense. I think Hank has screwed you by opening his mouth a bit too much, and now putting his pride over the good of your club. Just my humble opinion...

@ Jay C: Thank you for being a reasonable Yankee fan. A lot of people (not all) are saying Hughes is going to be this unbelievable #1 pitcher. The thing is, NO ONE knows if that is going to be the case. I've said all along that Hughes is a legit prospect, indeed a better one than Lester, but you can't get hung up on prospects all the time, not when you have a chance to go out and get the best pitcher in baseball. For teams like the Yanks and Red Sox, you use these prospects to acquire once in a generation type players. Thats why I'm not all up in arms over a 4-1, or even 5-1 Red Sox/Twins deal. I've read on various boards about people saying they don't want to do the trade if Ryan Kalish is in the deal. Really? Ryan Kalish? The kid hasn't played above A ball and we're going to nix a deal for Johan Santana because of Ryan Kalish? Come on now.

I realize that there is a point where too much is too much, but neither of the latest deals by the Yanks or Sox should be viewed as too much for Johan.

And I hope this thing gets done soon- one way or the other, its really starting to drag on.

I agree with you PrimeTimeKlein, the Yanks holding up this deal over Horne/Jackson is silly. I can certainly understand not trading Hughes and Kennedy, those are, at the least, two solid MLB starters for years to come. But the other guys? They're just as likely to not succeed at the big league level than they are to become something the team will be proud of hanging on to instead of going out and getting Santana.

To Jay C:

As someone who commented on the Madden article said, if the Yankees did in the 1990's what so many fans are advocating the Yankees do NOW, Jeter, Pettitte, and Rivera would never have been Yankees. As much as the thought of Johan in pinstripes is a dream come true, I'm not at all certain I'd have condoned giving up so much for him.

To PrimeTimeKlein:

This is all a moot point, because Santana is not going to be a Yankee. So he'll give up what, close to 40 homeruns? His ERA will jump to close to 4, he could win 20 just because of the Red Sox offense, but based off his career numbers, Boston fans should not be so quick to claim a huge victory here.

And as for Johan in Yankee Stadium...I believe his career ERA there is 1.17, which leads all active pitchers. I guess we better hope the baseball gods pit us against Boston at opportune times to face Johan next year :)

To Papelboner:

Would you be saying all this if you could look into the future and see a potential Johan injury? What if he blows out his elbow, or his shoulder, or his hamstring? You don't know what will be. I'd rather give the kids a chance to make a name for themselves, than to mortgage the future for a guy who could blow up on you.

It's very likely that Johan will continue to be great. It's also very possible that he could become a bust. I condone Cashman taking the route he's taken. Phil Hughes is a former #1 pick, he has a nasty curveball, a fastball that gets up to around 94-95, and a very decent changeup. How about that near 6-ERA that Johan has career at Fenway?

Besides, it'll be fun to see Boston get ragged on for "buying their teams" instead of the Yankees. Boston doesn't know how to be on top, I'm sure they'll piss it away.

The Twins would have taken that offer... and the Yankees didn't pull the trigger?

Wow. Idiocy. And lucky for us Twins fans.

@ Jason -- Phil Hughes could just as easily blow out his shoulder or arm. More easily, actually, in that Hughes has a history of injury, whereas the only thing to ever happen to Johan is the occasional finger blister. I get how you guys are probably pretty gunshy, but Johan Santana isn't going to pull a Carl Pavano on you.

Melky did not lead the league in OF assists, i just wish this deal would get done so all this bs can get over with.

And how do you know that, MommyWannabe? Johan has thrown 1,308 2/3 innings, and has averaged 228 IP/year for the last 4 years. He is only 6'0 and 210, which means he's certainly not that big in terms of MLB players.

Just because he has no injury past, doesn't mean he can't suddenly break down. Nothing idiotic about refusing to mortgage your future for someone that you don't know what will be.

And how is this "lucky for Twins fans"? They're still going to trade him, which means your team has no true #1, you lost your CFer, things aren't looking so hot there in Minneapolis.

"It's very likely that Johan will continue to be great. It's also very possible that he could become a bust."

Johan Santana a bust. Now I have heard it all. I understand that Yankee fans want to hold on to a potential stud pitcher, but no one's logic should be that Santana might turn out to be a bust.

To: thedeuce

Melky led the majors in OF assists, look it up.

To: mmille32

Every pitcher that has ever walked the earth has had the potential to be a bust. You DON'T trade away 40% of your projected starting rotation for a guy that goes every 5th day. How is it any way logical to fill a gap by creating 2 more? The Red Sox are giving up minor league pitchers, if they give up Lester or Buchholz that's one member of the rotation, and they have Schilling and Wakefield as backups. The Yankees have Igawa, Karstens and Rasner. See a bit of a talent disparity there?

"But I still would place him as probably the best righty in baseball right now."

... I contend that Beckett is not close to Jake Peavy.

The point is that Cashman did not want to give up Phil Hughes, nor did he want to lock the Yankees into a 5 or 6 year committment for Santana. Sure, Hughes could blow out his arm, but it would cost the Yanks far less if he did it than if Santana gets injured. If Santana gets hurt you still have to pay the guy out and you're crippled for the next several years. I take this as the possibility that maybe the Yankees have learned their lesson (Carl Pavano).

maybe im reading this wrong but to me it says they are offering coco lester ellsbury in the same deal?? rediculous(as in dumb)if so. unless they plan on offering A.Jones one year. heres the link...
http://msn.foxsports.com/rumors/mlb

redsoxry,
That link is almost 24 hours old.

"You DON'T trade away 40% of your projected starting rotation for a guy that goes every 5th day."

That sounds kind of stupid...you dont trade two starters for one is what is says to me. We are talking abut Johan Santana and the Yankees then having to fill a single rotation spot...I think they have the resources to fill that 5th spot somehow. Actually they already do...Wang, Petitte, Moose, Santana, Joba...

and that trade rumor including both coco and ellsbury had absolutely no credibility

I find it so amusing how people rag on Santana for being so terrible in Fenway. Have you even looked at the actual games?

Apr. 12, 2000: 3 2/3 IP, 10 H, 1 BB, 7 ER, 2 K
Aug. 11, 2002: 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 2 ER, 7 K
May 2, 2003: 1 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 0 K
Aug. 21, 2006: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 ER, 3 K

That's right, Santana has pitched in Fenway a total of 4 times in his career, and only once in the last four years. One of the other three times was in relief, too.

Take out the first game - which was his rookie season, and one of only 5 starts he had that year - and Santana's never given up more than 2 ER in an appearance at Fenway. He's also only allowed 1 HR in 15 2/3 IP (It was David Ortiz in 2006); over 200 IP, that would average just under 13 HR.

Not that any of those numbers really mean much, since

Josh Beckett in a big game, the best pitcher in baseball. He's like Pedro was in his prime.

However, on an everyday basis, Beckett can not hold Peavy's jackstrap. Peavy is a filthy beast who is every bit the equivalent to Johan if he can stay healthy.

The Twins need to bite the bullet, realize they are not going to get the value they need for Johan, scrap the rebuilding idea, and write a 6-year blank check to keep him. I said this last week, and the sentiment is still growing that it might happen.

A buddy of mine is doing business at the winter meetings, with MLB execs as some of his potential customers, and a certain Twins authority figure says they want to keep the team together at this point. I would elaborate more, but I don't want to jeopardize anyone's trust. Take that however you want. It is legit, and relayed to me this morning.

metafrantic, your well reasoned logic has no place here.

Jason:

The deal was for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Marquez, and Mitch Hilligoss.

Hughes is the only pitcher in the starting rotation that would be replaced... with the greatest player on the planet. So I'm not sure how the Yanks are trading away 40% of their rotation.

And I really don't see a large disparity between the Sox Ellsbury package and the Yanks package.

Why is it that with the Red Sox and Yankees failing to give up more than one of their top prospects for Santana, that the Cubs don't try to put a package together to reunite the Venezuelen countrymen. Pie, Theriot, Hart,and Hill could get it done. Then give Santana 6yr 120 mil.

To: Kevin G.

Peavy is a fine pitcher, but he showed in the 1-game playoff against Colorado that he isn't clutch, he has imploded in the past when he was needed. Beckett is gold.

To: VladimirPut-in

Well said, 100%. If Cash traded Hughes and Kennedy or even just Hughes, and then Santana turned into a bust, he'd most likely get fired. If you keep your own, and they don't pan out, you can forgive that. Lord knows the Yankees have been burned for making trades for big names (Brown, Vazquez, Johnson).

I wanted to make the point that Hughes did very well in the postseason (maybe better if bullpen torre didnt yank him for no reason). Granted it was only one appearance, but he did not have his best stuff (96-97 FB that tails out), was coming in under pressure of relief appearance, and under the pressure of losing the series for the yanks. Many great pitchers have come to the Yanks and did terrible, especially in the postseason. I believe that to be the true test and why Hughes is so valuable to the Yanks. I would not give him up for anybody. Cash is doing the right thing.

"That sounds kind of stupid...you dont trade two starters for one is what is says to me. We are talking abut Johan Santana and the Yankees then having to fill a single rotation spot...I think they have the resources to fill that 5th spot somehow. Actually they already do...Wang, Petitte, Moose, Santana, Joba..."

Uhhh, duh...why would you trade away 2 starters for 1, when you barely have 5 as it is? I don't want Moose in the rotation, he posted a career low in k's/9 and a career high in ERA.

"All-in-all, it didn't work out for the Yankees the way the baseball world thought is would after the Mussina signing."

Really? The following year (2001), the Yankees took the division and the pennant, and they only lost the series because Rivera, the best closer in postseason history, blew it - in other words, a complete fluke. How does that count as "Not working out"?

Laputian... haha, you're right. What was I thinking, trying to be LOGICAL about baseball? How silly of me.

@Jason

Don't know if anyone else has pointed it out yet, but Melky didn't lead all OF in assists. He did lead all CF in assists, but finished behind 4 RF and had 5 fewer than the MLB leaders, Cuddyer and Francoeur.

As for thinking Johan is going to breakdown because he's thrown a lot of innings, well that's just stupid. If he were a young guy throwing a lot of innings maybe, but he's throwing a lot in his prime. Basically you're arguing that because he has proven to be durable he is more likely to get injured. Oh and as a point of reference, Maddux had thrown like 500 or 600 more innings at the same point in his career and he has never had any arm problems.

"Jason:

The deal was for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Jeff Marquez, and Mitch Hilligoss.

Hughes is the only pitcher in the starting rotation that would be replaced... with the greatest player on the planet. So I'm not sure how the Yanks are trading away 40% of their rotation.

And I really don't see a large disparity between the Sox Ellsbury package and the Yanks package."

As far as I knew as of last night, the last Yankee offer was Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson. If Kennedy was taken out, then forgive me but that's all I knew about.

How do you not see a disparity between the 2 offers the 2 teams have made? Hughes > Lester, Melky > Crisp.

Uhhh, duh...why would you trade away 2 starters for 1, when you barely have 5 as it is? I don't want Moose in the rotation, he posted a career low in k's/9 and a career high in ERA.

That's right the Yankees don't have the resources or creativity to find a back of the rotation, capable #5 starter if they got Santana...my bad.

If your against moving Hughes/Kennedy for Santana that is fine, I get that...but to use the logic you don't trade two starters for one because it would leave an open rotation spot when you are talking about the best pitcher in the game the past 5 years is stupid.

"As for thinking Johan is going to breakdown because he's thrown a lot of innings, well that's just stupid. If he were a young guy throwing a lot of innings maybe, but he's throwing a lot in his prime. Basically you're arguing that because he has proven to be durable he is more likely to get injured. Oh and as a point of reference, Maddux had thrown like 500 or 600 more innings at the same point in his career and he has never had any arm problems"

I cannot believe you just compared Greg Maddux who has NEVER been a strikeout pitcher, and who has NEVER had a lot of torch in his delivery, to Johan Santana, who k's a ton of hitters, and who's arm whip is seriously ridiculous. Wow.

"Really? The following year (2001), the Yankees took the division and the pennant, and they only lost the series because Rivera, the best closer in postseason history, blew it - in other words, a complete fluke. How does that count as "Not working out"?"

hey i'm pretty sure it didnt work out cause how many world series did they win with Moose after 2000..NONE....Moose sucks now. It did not work for the Yankees so there you go. I DO NOT WANT SANTANA. I'm a sox fan and i think they are trying to give away way to much for Santana....Period...

What are the odds the Red Sox were just in this to try to drive up the price on the Yankees and now that Pettite is coming back and the Yankees pulled out they are getting cold feet?

Olney said the same thing mentioned above, that Cashman won the internal debate to keep Hughes. That is a ballsy move considering its NY and they are paranoid about the Red Sox and obsessed with big names. Especially since Cashman has one year left, and for his own personal sake, no one would crush him if brought in Santana. But if Santana goes to the Sox and wins 20 games and the Yankees young arms don't play out right away this year, he could be toast.

I wasn't trying to compare the two, I just happened to remember that little tidbit and was trying to give a point of reference. The point I was trying to make was that proving you're durable in your 25-28 years by throwing a lot of innings without any injury problems doesn't make you more likely to get injured.

BTW, what the the hell is "torch" in someone's delivery?

Oh and if you want to go the Pedro route with the comparison he had already been a guy who missed a few starts a year up to his 28 year old season (when the problem became more apparent) and then broke down in his 29 year old season.

I thought it was spelled "torch", maybe I'm wrong. Torc? Tork? Torque? idk...Pedro has a small stature, I wouldn't compare him to Johan. But Johan is far more injury prone than Maddux is/was.

To the guy who had given Johan's career numbers at Fenway - Michael Kay, a YES Network broadcaster, mentioned on his show that his career ERA at Fenway is nearly 6. Baseball analysts have been talking about his fly ball tendency, and how that would be bad for Fenway.

Shoot the message, not the messenger.

"That is a ballsy move considering its NY and they are paranoid about the Red Sox and obsessed with big names. Especially since Cashman has one year left, and for his own personal sake, no one would crush him if brought in Santana."

I think this pretty much proves that Cashman is in no way paranoid about Boston. That he's making a non-move that he feels helps the Yankees long-term, perhaps even at the expense of his job, speaks volumes.

"hey i'm pretty sure it didnt work out cause how many world series did they win with Moose after 2000..NONE....Moose sucks now. It did not work for the Yankees so there you go. I DO NOT WANT SANTANA. I'm a sox fan and i think they are trying to give away way to much for Santana....Period..."

And yet I'm supposedly insane for thinking that giving up Hughes and/or Kennedy isn't worth it.

Jason, I'm a Sox fan too, and I also don't want the Sox to sell the farm for Santana. But the fact that the Yankees haven't won the WS since signing Mussina has almost no bearing on whether Mussina actually worked out for them. With Mussina pitching for them, the Yankees reached the WS twice in the first three years (2001 & 2003). Both those years they were within spitting distance of the title, and both years it was NOT mussina's pitchig that cost them the series.

During those three years, here are Mussina's numbers: 52-29, 3.52 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 591 K in 659 IP. He surpassed 214 IP each year. He also delivered in the postseason those years, with a 3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 55 K in 57 1/3 IP. He did his part. He sucks now, but he did what was expected of him for at least a few years.

Andrew, I applaud Brian Cashman for this non-move. Yankees fans bitched and moaned when the Sox got Gagne from Texas, and the Yankees didn't budge. Yet Gagne almost single-handedly blew the division for Boston.

Now, Yankees fans are actually more appreciative, and not nearly as vocally against Cashman for not giving up the farm for this guy.

Over all, I think the non-moves are more helpful.

i find it kind of funny the twins have to "reach out" to sell santana, shouldnt he basically be selling himself? the fact they they have to make phone calls like telemarketers for Santana proves that nobody is putting anything in to acquire him, which is great for the sox i guess.

Metafrantic, I'm not at all sure why you're arguing about Mussina with me. I never said that signing him was a bad move. I think he's worthless now, but in no way was I against him being signed. I fully agree he did his part, and was a steady presence in the rotation for a good 4-5 years.

The Twins have to "reach out" because they're asking way too much for him.

@Jason

Yeah it's torque. I figured that's probably what you meant after I thought about it, but considering the fire connotations of torch I figured maybe you meant something else.

there not asking for to much, the reason they are is because they know they can get more then the sox are offering but nobody can offered santana salary wise, thats why

"To the guy who had given Johan's career numbers at Fenway - Michael Kay, a YES Network broadcaster, mentioned on his show that his career ERA at Fenway is nearly 6. Baseball analysts have been talking about his fly ball tendency, and how that would be bad for Fenway.

Shoot the message, not the messenger."

Yes. As I pointed out, if you INCLUDE his one terible start from his ROOKIE YEAR, his ERA in Fenway is bad. Without that one start, his ERA in Fenway is 3.75. One start did that... because he only has 15 2/3 IP at Fenway in his career! And only 5 IP in the last 4 YEARS! How can you possibly judge how effective someone will be based on such miniscule sample size? Those numbers mean NOTHING!

And yes: Santana is a flyball pitcher. He is also the best pitcher in baseball. This is not because of the park he pitches in. Here are his career home/away splits:

Home: 3.17 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .219 BAA
Away: 3.27 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, .223 BAA

He pitches well ANYWHERE.

"Shoot the message, not the messenger."

I'd prefer to just shoot Michael Kay.

"Peavy is a fine pitcher, but he showed in the 1-game playoff against Colorado that he isn't clutch,"

There is no such thing. BEckett took a month of this year, Peavy won the triple crown. But ya lets focus on that one game.

Ortiz struck out in the 9th inning once, A-rod hit a walk off grandslam once. Aaron bleeping Boone. Clutch clutch cluthchy clutch clutch. There is no such thing.

Well that's just it, they know how much Santana is demanding, they don't have the luxury of pitting teams against eachother. You have basically 3 or 4 teams with the money and the need (both NY teams, Dodgers, Red Sox). The Red Sox have more ability than need, obviously. When you have limited choice, you can't get away with asking for so much.

@Jason

Yeah I also agree about Pedro having a smaller stature, but I could see someone drawing the comparison due to their dominance, and similar mid 90's fastball/nasty changeup combo's. Just figured I'd nip it in the bud.

Jason, your comment about Mussina sounded like you were suggesting that it was Mussina's fault the Yankees didn't win the WS all those years. Upon rereading it, I think you just meant that, even though they signed him and he did well, it still didn't win them the championship. Which is true. Sorry if I misinterpreted.

Metafrantic, clearly you don't know the meaning of "shoot the message, not the messenger".

ArodSucksAtLife, I'd encourage you to research Peavy's lifetime career numbers in the postseason. I'm pretty sure they're not great. Beckett's are. Point. Set. Match.

nixa37, I'd never compare 2 pitchers with different builds. That's just stupid. There are multiple factors that determine risk.

It's fine metafrantic, no harm done bro.

Not certain, but wouldn't they gain salary relief (from luxury tax perspective) if they just cut Pavano?

Jason, clearly you missed that I did, in fact, attack the message by debunking it, and did not, in fact, shoot the messenger, either you or Michael Kay.

NYCBaseball, I think you're right; the luxury tax for the Yankees is 40% of the amount they're over the maximum. Assuming Pavano's entire 11m salary was in the "over", they'd stand to save 4.4 million.

It says that the Twins are contacting the Angels about Santana. If I'm the Angels, I go after Danny Haren from the A's (if they don't care about intra-division trading). I think he is ready to bust out to be another Josh Beckett. He is very good - and cheaper on the payroll.

Metafrantic, you still slammed my post about Santana being bad at Fenway, did you not? If no, then I apologize.

And yes, you and NYCBaseball are correct. It would certainly save the Yankees luxury tax. Not to mention cutting ties with one of the biggest busts in recent history.

halofan15, are you insane? Haren's 2nd half numbers in his career are nothing close to being deemed worthy of an intra-divisional trade. Besides, don't they have ENOUGH starters already?

The Fenway stats are WAY too small a sample to judge there.

That being said, he may struggle because he gives up a ton of HRs - thats basically the only flaw in his game. The thing is, he gives up a lot of HRs every year and still has great ERA numbers. So obviously he is giving up HRs at the right time. But playing in a notorious hitters park in Fenway will have an effect on Santana.

And let's not get crazy over Beckett, he's one hell of a post-season pitcher and had a great year, but he is one year removed from giving up 36 HRs and having an ERA over 5.00. Let's see him do it for a couple years before we "crown him."

i dont know about that Jason, the Mo Vaughn Mets contract was pretty bad...

I meant in recent Yankee history, not all of MLB.

o i no, im just bored and wanted to threw that out there. your right though, its right up there, he is new yorks matt clement

I wonder if the Sox are getting cold feet...I know as a Sox fan I am. Not sure if Santana is 25 mil a year better then Lester and Lester may nearly as good in three years.

Anyways, I wonder if the Dodgers could get it done for Ethier, Laroche, Billingsley and Hu. The Twins fill their critical needs...a #2 starter, a SS (Brendan Harris was a fluke IMO last year), a 3B and a CF. The Dodgers would not terribly miss any of these players given the gain of Santana.

no, its not the sox, the sox have put all their eggs in one basket with santana, they arent shopping for anything else, this is it. The Twins have cold feet because they are trading this decades best pitcher, they want to make sure they are properly compensated, i dont blame them, but i still think the sox are going to cross the finish line on this

Jared, I think I read that the Dodgers won't give up LaRoche. I could be wrong, but that's what I think I remembered.

If all that Johan demanded was 3 or 4 players in return, I'd say no big deal. But not only does he have to waive his no-trade, he also is going to demand well over $20,000,000/per. I don't care who you are, that's insane.

odds are jared78, if the players "would not terribly miss" any of these players, then it wont land you Santana...

Man, this deal is never going to get done. It's ultimately the Twins decision and they have every right to get the best deal, but man this is just dragging out.

6/$140 should be where the talks of an extension start, pretty fair right there i think for santana at his caliber

Like I said, I don't care who you are, over $20,000,000/per is insane. Why can't we pay our teachers and firefighters and cops $20,000,000? They do more for society.

Payroll? Really Cashman?

How's this for saving money:

You don't give your bitchy 3B, who spit in the organization's face by opting out via voicemail 30 million dollars a year.

Sound good?

Pay the best pitcher in baseball damnit!! Pay the man!

No.. instead Yankees' fans are stuck with choke-Rod. Thanks Hank and Cashman!

the price tag is also why so many teams arent shopping for santana, they cant afford either the trade demands, or the salary of santana demands, thats why, pretty much for now, its a one horse race.

"Metafrantic, you still slammed my post about Santana being bad at Fenway, did you not? If no, then I apologize."

Slamming a post isn't the same thing as slamming the poster. I try to debunk arguments I don't agree with, but it's never personal against the poster (unless THEY make it personal). Isn't that the point of sites like this? To have civil discussions/arguments about baseball? We don't have to agree, but I can still do my best to debunk your opinions without it being an attack on you personally.

And RE: Pavano... I find it odd that Pavano is so reviled as a horrible bust, but no one talks about the Red Sox version of Pavano: Matt Clement. In 3 years on the Sox payroll he pitched a total of 42 games, with pathetic numbers. They paid him $25.825m over those years, or $614,881 per game. I know Pavano was worse: he'll earn a total of $40m for his 4 years and 19 games, or $2.1 million per game. But still, Clement was pretty bad...

Jason, i'm pretty sure the A's would ask for pitching in return for Haren. I'm just offering a suggestion if the Angels were to look at pitching. I hate the idea of gioving $20mil per year to pitcher - any pitcher.

Personally, I think the Angels need another bat, or two. I was at game three of the division series this year and the current lineup, even with Hunter, simply cannot matchup with the BoSox, Yankees or Tigers.

jason, thats a soap box stance. of course those people should make more money, but this is the nature of the beast, what can you do? if you salary capped baseball tomorrow, all the players would strike and there would be no baseball for a year or two.

ps - this man is worth it, sox spend 100mil on daisuke, giants well over 100mil for Zito and this is Santana we are talking about, he MUST be worht more

henry, the Yankees didn't go to A-Rod, A-Rod went to the Yankees.

04forever, I agree...like I said, it's the money PLUS the players demanded that are causing the Twins to be pulling teeth to get anywhere.

metafrantic, understood. We're good. And in regards to Pavano, the Red Sox have won more rings since Pavano signed with the Yankees, than the Yankees have. They've been able to mask the Clement disaster, the Yankees haven't.

halofan, my argument had nothing to do with the A's asking for pitching in return. It has to do with the fact that 1. the Angels would be stupid to trade for ANOTHER pitcher, especially one who's historically not a good 2nd half pitcher.

04forever, the only way to correct the market is to refuse to go higher and higher. And lord knows this market needs a major face-lift.

Oops, I forgot - 2. the Angels would be stupid to give up young talent to a division rival for a pitcher who will do nothing to help the stretch run.

Oh man… You know, everyone loves to call them “Homers”, but after this thread we might need to change it to “Jasons”…

“As far as I knew as of last night, the last Yankee offer was Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson. If Kennedy was taken out, then forgive me but that's all I knew about.”

…Never. That was never the deal. Since moment 1, the Yanks have said “Not Hughes + Kennedy”. They didn’t even talk all day yesterday though, so how they managed to up the offer to something they said they would never do while not even talking ~ well…

Oops, huh?

“I cannot believe you just compared Greg Maddux who has NEVER been a strikeout pitcher, and who has NEVER had a lot of torch in his delivery, to Johan Santana, who k's a ton of hitters, and who's arm whip is seriously ridiculous. Wow.”

… Santana K 25-28YO 156, 180, 186 and 183
… Maddux K 25-28YO 198, 199, 197 and 153

Oops, huh?

“Phil Hughes is a former #1 pick”

…Actually, he was picked 23rd…

Oops, huh?

“Andrew, I applaud Brian Cashman for this non-move. Yankees fans bitched and moaned when the Sox got Gagne from Texas, and the Yankees didn't budge. Yet Gagne almost single-handedly blew the division for Boston.
Now, Yankees fans are actually more appreciative, and not nearly as vocally against Cashman for not giving up the farm for this guy.
Over all, I think the non-moves are more helpful.”

…And what happens when they fail to make the playoffs this year? Really, what happens? All the Yankee fans run around the streets cheering because they didn’t give up kids who will have struggled in the season if forced to pitch 170+ IP? 6 years from now whaen Hughes has never panned out and no one remembers Horne or Jacksons name, will they be happy seeing the division title banners hanging on the BoSox walls? How happy do you think Hank will be when the teams fails for the first time in 14 years in his first year at the helm? Ya think Cashman will still have a job? Yah don’t think this is gonna come back and bite them in the rear at all?

...We all realize that you have your panties twisted over this, but it would be great if you could actually start saying true or thoughtout statements when you rant your feelings about this possible deal. As it is, youre just kind of throwing anything you can think of out there hopping it sticks to the wall… Well, it aint working, and your making yourself look like nothing but an ass…

@Jason:

So? Doesn't mean you have to pay the guy so much. In fact, you should make him take a steep pay cut because of how he insulted your organization. The Yankees gave him a RAISE!!

They could've platooned Betemit and Ensberg and gotten .290/.360/.520 out of them with 30/100/100 probably.

Total cost: ~4 million.

"the Red Sox have won more rings since Pavano signed with the Yankees, than the Yankees have. They've been able to mask the Clement disaster, the Yankees haven't."

True, it's all about perception: "Oh look so what if we screwed up on that one contract, look at my rings! Aren't they shiny?"

Of course it hasn't helped the Yankees that Pavano's injuries are so stupid. I mean, his ass? Seriously?

darkstar, I really could not care less what you think. Everyone here is having a nice, civil discussion over all things Santana, and what do you do? You come plowing in, strutting your stuff, and acting like your head couldn't make it through a doorway if you tried.

You can take your arrogant demeanor and shove it, because I'm certainly not going to give credence to your bullcrap rant by taking the time to dissect your post piece by piece.

Now don't you feel pretty silly for wasting moments of your life badgering someone who cares more about a scab on his leg than what some prick online has to say? I know I would.

After all this - now he might not be traded? What a tease.

Henry, what on earth would give you the impression that a Betemit/Ensberg platoon could produce a slg% of anywhere CLOSE to .520? Maybe they could produce an OPS of .520...as for the $ amount, not my Benjamins that are paying for it.

metafrantic, you got that right. Guaranteed if the Cubbies had broken their drought, Wood and Prior would have been forgotten YEARS ago! Pavano's a walking disaster. He could find a way to break some bones by falling into a pool of feathers.

"Peter Gammons via Amy Nelson is saying Santana may not be traded."

Because we've all seen how incredibly reliable Peter Gammons' word is recently.

darkstar1661:
"“I cannot believe you just compared Greg Maddux who has NEVER been a strikeout pitcher, and who has NEVER had a lot of torch in his delivery, to Johan Santana, who k's a ton of hitters, and who's arm whip is seriously ridiculous. Wow.”

… Santana K 25-28YO 156, 180, 186 and 183
… Maddux K 25-28YO 198, 199, 197 and 153

Oops, huh?"
I looked at baseball reference, and here's Satnana's Ks 25-28YO:
265, 238, 245, 235

Unless I misunderstood what stats you were pointing out.

Beth,

Yeah, grabbed the wrong stats when I typed it up real fast ~ those are the ones. But Maddux in the 180-200 range isnt a SO pitcher according to Jason ~ that was the point...

and Jason:
Meta has for some reason treated you civilly, but it doesnt make you any less an ass. Nothing you have really said in this thread makes sense, fits the situation or is anything other than your bias ranting. Reading this thread this morning was a joke because of your bias childish rants, yet your acting high and mighty as though youve actually made a point?

I dont know why anyone gave you the time of day anyway, but its about time you stop spilling the bull and let the adults have a real conversation...

Hank is really just like his dad. This article on him is hilarios.

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2007/12/04/beavis-and-hank-steinbrenner/

Jayson Stark just told Max Kellerman that he thinks the Sox-Twins trade is falling apart, and that he wonders now if Boston ever truly wanted to make this trade.

Umm wow Jason:

Are you kidding?

Ensberg vs. LHP:

.284/.406/.530

Betemit vs. RHP:

.270/.350/.460

They may not slug .520, but .500 is possible. They both walk, so .350-.370 OBP is probable.

.870 OPS for 4 million or 1.000 OPS and .100 avg in playoffs for 30 million?

Yea... I'll take option #1.

Those are career #s by the way. So Betemit might get better while Ensberg at 31(?) is pretty much at his peak.

darkstar1661, I treated Jason civilly because we're discussing baseball. It's not like we're arguing religion or world politics or he insulted your sister's virtue. So you disagree with his opinion and consider him uninformed; that doesn't mean your personal attacks on his character are warranted. You come across just as much the ass as you claim he does. Debunk his opinions if you can, but don't be a jerk about it; that accomplishes nothing.

I'm officially tired of everything Sox, Twins, and Johan Santana.

Good luck to Bill Smith in trying to explain to Twins' fans how letting Johan Santana go for a couple of draft picks was the best move for the franchise.

Oh my gosh - Red Sox fans get over it! In 2006 Beckett was horrible - posting an ERA north of 5.00. This year his post-season heroics have catapulted him into being the best pitcher in the game? PLEASE take a basic statistics class. You will learn about an idea called SAMPLE SIZE. Very useful for evaluating talent.

It's not like this is new for Beckett. He pitched great in the playoffs before. Then he was mired in injury and mediocrity. He is a far cry from a sure bet.

What?

Santana has to be traded!

I have too much time invested in this dammit.

Also... with Detroit being a monster all of a sudden and Cleveland staying put, do the Twins really think Delmon Young puts them over the top next year?

I love how Santana is an injury risk. The guy was handled with kid gloves coming up through the system and for his first few years. Even now, he is limited with strict pitch counts.

Yeah - he strikes out a ton of guys. That makes him an injury risk. I can't ever recall any big time strike out pitchers who have pitched into their 40's (let alone into their mid 30's like Johan's next contract will take him into).

Well know that I have thought about it for one nanosecond Clemens, Schilling, Johnson come to mind ... I think they did OK.

It would have been classic to hear Jason tell us all about how Clemens wasn't worth anything at 29 because his arm would fall off any day.

Yeah ~ I know completely, but I have no problem coming off like an ass in the face of childish dribble like that. You know nothing he has said has even really made sense, and you know that we have been dealing with similar Yankee-homer children running around in these threads the last week when. Too many times they have highjacked a thread making it almost illegible to anyone following because of their incorrect points they argue till blue in the face. Then he goes off on tangents against the Halo-Guy because he makes a post and accuses you of attacking him because you provide stats instead of bias hopes... Its driving other posters away, its not bringing anything truthful to the conversation, and its just going nowhere…

...Its just gotten way past old dealing with these children, and since this thread will get to 300 posts yet again, it would be nice if it wasnt 50% filled with the rantings of a lunatic...

After all this, he has to get traded.

I personally believe that the Twins were getting rolled in all of there trade talks with any team... Johan is the best and the team that has the rights to him should get top dollar if they are giving him up. The Yankees are a joke i'm sorry they are after all the idiots that said that they were going to let Arod go and look they gave him a raise...Ludicrous

he will be traded, i dont trust gammons on this for two reason, one, he is trusting someone elses report, two, he hasnt really been right recently

the red sox offer is better then the compensation pick they get, plus it fills there needs. They are just trying to scare the sox into putting ellsbury and lester into a deal together, i will reiterate, its not going to work. its not the sox fault that teams dont want to take on his salary and trade up to 5 players. its the best deal available and its better then the compensation pick, of course he is going to be traded.

scare tactics ladies and gentlemen

The Twins will sign Corey Patterson for CF, and Mike Lamb for 3B too affordable contracts.

Johan will eventually be signed to a long-term contract. Joe Nathan might be traded, depending on how the first half of the season goes. They will never truly get what he is worth anyways, probably better to wait until the deadline shows a desparate team or two.

I'm just crossing my fingers they don't sign Eckstein, but he is a protype Gardenhire player, so I'm sure they will....

Will be stop pretending outfield assists is some predictor of great defense. At least half the time players have high outfield assists because teams want to challenge them, meaning new player or suspect arm. Manny Ramirez led all of baseball in outfield assists in 2005. That should have put the last nail in the coffin of the outfield assist lovers but apparently Melky Cabrera is bringing that back even though he was beat out by 2 converted infiedlers in the category last year.

Yes, Santana gave up a lot of home runs last year, IMO mostly due to a high fluke HR/FB rate. Something people do not realize about fenway is it was actually one of the best ballparks at suppressing home runs last year. 23rd overall and only 2 other AL parks were harder to hit home runs in (yes minnesota was one of them but the difference is hardly what people might speculate).

If the Twins would really have taken that Yankees package I am double surprised. Not sure if it more surpising that the Yankees turned that down or that the Twins have not traded him to the Red Sox yet if that is all they want.

If the Yankees go into next year with the rotation as is it would seem quite unlikely that they would win the world series if for no other reason than it is quite likely a key young pitcher is going to have to throw well to get them there yet will have to be shut down at some point if they do pitch well. Not the double edged sword I want to be playing with. The Yankees will likely be better for cashman but I doubt he will be there to see the rewards.

I honestly think the Twins went into this thinking, if we can get someone to break the bank for Johan, we'll go for it.

Otherwise, we will keep him and sign him.

Johan doesn't have a ton of bargaining power right now. If he doesn't sign a long-term deal right now at his peak value, he is risking a lot on potential injury next year. You know he won't be babied if there is a possibility of walking. I think he will give in to a small home-town discount, if he is given 5 or 6 years at $20 million.....

I could be wrong, that's just how I see it playing out.

"You will learn about an idea called SAMPLE SIZE. Very useful for evaluating talent."

Yeah what an interesting concept. Something like looking at a young players career as opposed to cherry-picking the worst stat from his worst season.

the bank was broken, 5 players is a broken bank, if they expected anything more, lets say ellsbury/lester or hughes/kennedy, then they are friggen crazy. they dont want to sign him, they cant afford it, besides they have a cheaper younger (possibly healthy) him in Liriano. The whole reason this trade happened was because they couldnt come to terms on a deal, they were on two total ends of the totem, now they just want to see what they can get for him now instead of nothing next year. they knew if he reached free agency, he would get what he wanted and possibly more anyway.

you guys are jumping to conclusion, the winter meetings arent even over yet, if the meetings over and the trade, not the contract situation, are not resolved, then he probably wont be traded, lets just wait

"ArodSucksAtLife, I'd encourage you to research Peavy's lifetime career numbers in the postseason. I'm pretty sure they're not great. Beckett's are. Point. Set. Match."

Jake Peavy, 9.2 innings.

I am now going to make all my baseball predictions on 9.2 innings. Clay Buchholz will never ever ever ever ever give up a hit in baseball. After he retires with 18 world championships, 18 cy youngs, and 18 mvp awards Major League Baseball will officially cancel the league. The Senate will make it illegal to play baseball in the United States for the off chance that someone taints Clay's legacy. To quote a complete toolbox: Point. Set. Match.

It's been a while since this was brought up in this tread, but Santana's possibility of injury can't be very high. He does not throw any hard sliders or dueces; rather, he works with movement on fastballs and different changeups as opposed to twisting the arm and causing elbow/shoulder problems. Saying that, yes, it's true that any pitcher can pull a hamstring, tweak a shoulder, or get a blister, but Santana's odds, oh, vs. Lincecum? Pretty low.

As a Sox fan, worth that risk? It'd cost a shitload of money to get Santana then restructure Beckett, so I don't know if it's worth paying out the ass for someone instead of keeping the prospects who could turn out as a poor man's Santana in a few years.