Nothing Imminent With Orioles

Though there is some growing thought in Baltimore that other teams aren't offering so the Orioles are/should move more seriously towards extending him. Monetarily this is do-able for the Orioles. THough I think in MacPhail's mind it's less about being able to financial do it as much as age-wise does it make sense.

cmon, wheres the token murton, cedeno, gallagher, marshall for bedard AND roberts proposal. havent seen it yet today?

then aparently they don't want to and all this interest in bedard is bogus?

I just don't think that Bedard is the high end of what the reds could net in return for Bruce & Bailey. That trade would haunt Cincy fans for a long time.

Hey guys, the market is a moving flowing thing. If the market for brown rocks suddenly shot up to 25 bucks per pound, I garuantee you'd be picking up some. If the market for pitching is as thin as it is now, can you blame the Orioles for holding onto their best player without expecting an excellent return?

Saying it's not fair that the Orioles hold onto Bedard unless Bruce or the like is released is absurd. Other teams are not entitled to take the Orioles (or any other team's) best players. For Cubs fans, isn't that like saying that the Cubs are totally unfair for expecting a king's ransom to trade for any one of Zambrano, Soriano, Lee, or Aramis? The Orioles don't have to trade Bedard technically. MacPhail is just trying to cash in value in a very rare pitching market that probably won't come around quite like this for a while. More power to them.

dude you said that it is totally unfair that baltimore refused to trade bedard (who in my mind is the 2nd best pitcher in baseball) unless they include bruce. why shouldnt they want bruce?

and btw u gave me a good chuckle and lightened my day up when you said its not there fault they have the best prospect in baseball.

o and btw the reason he doesnt want to sign any deals is because he plays for the freakin orioles. if u were him would u want to sign a long term deal with the orioles.

He's available for trade but he's not cheap. If you don't like it, that's fine. The Reds are free to go their own way, and, the Orioles should be free to extend their own player. But the market is not based on a price you (the buyer) feel is fair.

If you found out that you had the last car in the world, and you only bought that junker for 50 dollars, I garuantee you'd be able to sell it for a lot more than that. And even if you didn't plan on selling it, you're an idiot for not doing so in that kind of market.

Someone might tell you it's not fair to raise the price so high, but if that's it's market value you're an idiot for not selling it high.

Well, take it for what it's worth. AT last count, according to Ken Rosenthal, I believe the Mariners had the high bid with Adam Jones-Barrow-Clement/Balentein. The Reds are certainly able to top that offer without Bruce. They have the system to do it. But what does that mean? Once you rule out Bruce (and I'll even say Cueto cus I bet you'd rule him out), offering a package of Bailey-Votto-Frazier-Maloney? Is dealing prospects #3-6 actually better than holding onto Bruce and/or Cueto?

I think many Baltimore fans would be happy to take the Seattle deal. That's a high grade offer. Though it's a shrewd move for MacPhail to wait on making any move until Santana gets dealt first, esp. considering how many teams are near contention and looking for a starter. Another caveat is the Os have 2 more years with Bedard, so they can wait until next season to deal him too.

basemonkey,
I agree with you about Hamilton's age and think it's probably going to be Votto if a deal is done. I've been following him for a couple of years now, and he's really impressive. He sprays the ball with power. He's patient. He's a solid defender at first and decent in left. He's got good speed from a power position. But best of all, he's got the right attitude. He's always working to get better. If Dunn had Votto's attitude he'd be one of the top players in the game.

Hamilton was very, very impressive for a guy not having played in four years. A couple of the DL trips were really random too...the stomach thing? I don't see that as an issue next year. He does have a checkered past and he is 27, but he's got incredible skills. MVP caliber if healthy.

The Reds might be better off keeping their young guys. They might have a nice rotation with Bedard, to head the staff already featuring Harang and Arroyo. I have always been a fan of Harang's. Though Bedard has always been a similar type in that they both fly under the radar. A lot of fans around baseball don't feel comfortable giving up too much faith into a guy who hasn't been buzzed 24/7 like Bedard. But, he might be the most dominating pitcher in baseball you've not really heard about. Folks point out blemishes here and there with him which I don't dismiss. But he pitches in the AL EAST and collected his stats before he went down last year while striking out Arod, Manny, Ortiz, Jeter, Glaus, Wells, etc. His biggest strikeout games came against bad clubs but he made his living off of striking out the meat of the order of every lineup.

I have watched Votto play and know what kind of player he is. I like him a lot and love the way the ball comes off the bat. You can tell he has a special gear of batspeed.

Bedard doesn't like attention so he won't get much press. But look at his numbers. ERA has gotten better every year. And his strik out totals have gotten higher. You worry about the lack of 200 Innings? Well at least you know he hasn't over-used it. Blanton is 27ish with over 200 innings the past 3 seasons. He might have arm issues. No 200 innings shouldn't be an issue. Bedard was just shut down since we had no reason it pitch him and hurt him more. Strained right oblique muscle was nothing to worry about but the O's weren't going to the playoffs.

You know that is a great point. Bedard's lack of a 200 IP season could be misleading.

Even though Bedard would go out of the lineup due to injuries they would always be the mild nagging ones that never had anything to do with the arm. When he was ready to be back in the lineup, the Orioles would always be cautious with him and hold him out because by that time, the Orioles would be out of it by August. If the Orioles were in playoff hunts, then a couple of those 180 IP seasons could have been 200 IP ones. Instead the Orioles chose to ease Bedard back in and audition call-ups to evaluate the last two months of the season. Hmmm.

Yeh, straight up is ridiculous! The Orioles should throw in a top prospect with Bedard if they want Pie (sarcasm).

"Yeh, straight up is ridiculous! The Orioles should throw in a top prospect with Bedard if they want Pie (sarcasm)."

/\ /\ /\
See, he's blatantly ripping you guys ~ where is ADun and CubsWorldWhatever to give the hours and hours of ranting and raving?

...Its just unfair I tell ya...

and Base, great write-up on Bedard ~ interesting read.

ADun, Im confused… Yesterday Marmol was “THE BEST RELIEVER IN ALL OF BASEBALL”, Hill was a “GREAT #3 who will only get much better”, and Pie was being compared to Beltan and Sizemore. Today it sounds quite different… Does that mean you are ready to talk rationally?

If you are, I would like to ask this ~ seriously, how often do young relievers get traded as though they hold a ton of value? Really; so many of them change teams every year, but how often do they do so for big name players? Its usually a fairly even swap of young relievers to better fit the teams needs (ie RH for LH or longer-relief guys or whatever) or for maybe a young starter who hasn’t shown too much yet but has the possibility. Or in the case of guys like Andrew Brown they are added on as a throw in with a top-prospect for a marginal guy (he has been traded twice like this, once for Milton Bradley and once for Josh Barfield before being traded yet again for Bradley straight up after Oakland released GameBoy). Brown has absolutely sick stuff, an amazing K rate and is without a BB problem, but he isn’t held too valuable around the league at all because he’s just a reliever without experience. (He’s also just a guy that poped into my head, not comparing him directly, only his type) Or how about Rafael Soriano who has a dominated in the majors to the tune of a 1.025 WHIP in 243IP over 6 year but was traded for borderline-starter Horacio Ramirez? How about Clay Hensley who provided an amazing rookie season (50IP, 1.7ERA, 1.049WHIP) and an above average season out of the rotation the following year (3.71ERA vs 4.04 LgAvg in 187IP) but was traded for nothing more than Mat Herges after he experienced a small setback in 07…

The post I provided in the other thread which you just couldn’t handle wasn’t bashing Marmol like you assumed ~ it was saying that his value to other teams probably isn’t anywhere near as high as you perceive it to be. Relievers don’t hold a ton of value to other teams unless they have provided multiple years worth or positive stats ~ and even then their value isn’t generally extreme. I just cant imagine the O’s being that interested in a package heavily weighing towards a guy like Marmol, he just doesn’t hold that kind of value. Trading him wouldn’t really make sense because he will hold more value to the Cubs than he will bring in return. Same thing can be said for Soto since he has only produced once in his entire life. Pie has done nothing but hurt his value to the point of it being no where near what it should be. I know you cant stand hearing it, but these types of guys just don’t hold a ton of value right now and are much more valuable to the Cubs then anyone else.

So really, although a package of something like Hill/Marmol/Pie/??? Might seem as though it’s a fairly even swap, they would still more than likely pass it up for guys with more upside/fewer questions/less negative strikes on their resemue. The post you had such a horrible problem with was saying nothing much more than the fact that the Cubs are not currently in a position to get the value out of their guys that Cubs fans perceive they should be getting.

"the Cubs are not currently in a position to get the value out of their guys that Cubs fans perceive they should be getting"

"Cubs fans" is totally relative. There are fans that think Pie should go for Bedard straight up. Obviously, thats ridiculous. I'm not trying to say that these guys hold more value than they do, but I believe that you vastly under value them because you have an obvious anti-Cubs thing going on. Its alright, I obviously have a Cubs bias...but I'm trying to keep it realistic here. The Cubs are better off keeping these guys, not because of what they would get for them, but because its not like other teams best prospects. These guys are all major league ready and a big part of the teams success plans next year.

I think I'm on the same page as you Adun. You're reasoning sounds fair to me. To trade for a #1 SP, you either have to be a playoff contender already seeking another piece, or, an organization drowning in more top prospects than slots. The Cubs are not quite here or there just yet.

Even tho DarkStar disagrees, I think you're offer sounds more or less fair in most other trade markets. I think Hill\Marmol\Murton\Cedeno is a fair package to expect since there's a lot of ML experience coming back. Though the Orioles would probably turn down those offers because they are looking to get younger and retool with some top flight prospects in AAA or AA coming back. Bedard is 28 and his age seems to be the cutoff point for trade targets if that. Hill and Marmol would be excellent additions but, if they are the centerpieces, their ages make them irrelevant to the Orioles rebuilding effort.

As far as Marmol\Pie\Gallagher\Patterson , that's more in line with the kind of promise the Orioles would like to expect coming back though I think this kind of trade is a shade on the quantity side of a #1 SP trade. Usually as a general rule, #1 SPs will garner a top pitching prospect, a top hitting prospect, and another prospect to round it out depending on the player. Legit possible HOF-type SPs can earn two top pitching prospects and more. The Mulder and Hudson trades by Beane are models, and, the high end might be the Expos trade of Pedro. This is just a general rule and there's a million convolutions so don't think of it too rigidly. Honestly this kind of trade makes no sense for the Os or Cubs either.

Another thing I forgot to mention about Bedard that is a large feature is his delivery. One of the reasons why he was regarded so well even when his velocity was around 93 MPH was because he's what people call "sneaky fast", which has to do with his delivery. During the windup, he turns his back completely around (not an extreme like El Duque or Willis tho) and has a short arm angle, which makes the release point very difficult for hitters to pick up. Such a delivery makes the ball look like it's coming out of his shoulder or elbow. If any of us here have ever gone to a batting cage, we all know the difference of hitting off a machine where you can't see the ball fall in the chute and bounce around in the launching tube. If the launching tube is hidden from you and the ball just comes out of a hole, even slow pitches are difficult to hit. Bedard has a similar kind of deception and built-in optical illusion in his wind-up.

I'm in agreement, that second package is a bit on the quantity side. Gallagher will never return the value that he could be to the Cubs.

The only thing I might respectfully disagree on is this;

"Hill and Marmol would be excellent additions but, if they are the centerpieces, their ages make them irrelevant to the Orioles rebuilding effort."

Marmol and Hill both have like maybe 1.5 years of service time? So you have like Hill's five years in his prime, and Marmol's 25 to 30 year old years. I would think that it would do wonders for a rebuild, as long as they could compete for the last 2 or 3. They might not though, which is why, as you were saying, they might want AA and AAA players. If thats the case, than they just wouldn't match...which I don't really think they do anyway.

To clear that up, they would be WS contenders if you added Bedard to the current team, but probably not if you traded the guys it would take to get them. So if that was your point, I totally agree. The thought of a rotation that looked like

Zambrano
Bedard
Lilly
Hill
Marquis

would be awesome. However, it would probably take trading Hill and many other key parts of the team. So like I said...they need to pass and stick with going after Roberts.

Another point is that I don't mean to suggest that adding Bedard wouldn't make the Cubs a strong team. I think it would. My post was referring to a team that is already in the playoffs trying to acquire a postseason pitcher to go further into the playoffs. Such as the Yankees, Angels, Tigers, etc..

Sorry, I just had a brain freeze. I was still thinking about the '06 Cubs. You're right. The NL Central is a wide open division and a single addition like that can put a team over the top. That's a far cry from what I'm used to in the AL EAST. I officially retract my earlier comments about adding Bedard just gets the Cubs in. THey're already there. I think it locks them in and then maybe more.

“ok Dark, I will give it one last shot to have a civil conversation with you.”

…This will actually be the first time, normally you just reply to me with statements like “that’s retarded” or “your insane” after I make an observation ~ but ok, I’ll play along for a min…

“However, know this. Marmol is the #1 reliever in all of baseball that teams would want. He is young, cheap, dominant, has K-Rod stuff, and under team control for years.”

…See, that seems like a whole lot of assumptions to me. Last year at this time no one would have even really wanted Marmol, he would have just been a throw in to get the deal done. I don’t see how a guys value can go from something like “yeah I’ll give him a shot I guess” to centerpiece overnight because he has his one good season. Besides, as good as he may possibly be, he is still just a reliever with one good season ~ something that just doesnt bring much value in return. If he had had 3 seasons like 07, and one or two in the minors similar ~ yeah, it would be a bit different. As it is though, there are just too many guys who look like they will be amazing because of one year before they hit the “remember the potential” bin…

“there are fans that think Pie should go for Bedard straight up.”

…No there isn’t, they were being a smart ass…

“but I believe that you vastly under value them because you have an obvious anti-Cubs thing going on”

…Really, that’s not true either. I’m just trying to be realistic here and equate things to the 100+ years of history we have to look at. (To-This-Point) Failed prospects (Pie/Patterson/etc) don’t generally ever get traded as if they have much value, they almost never get what you would expect for them. (To-This-Point) One-Hit-Wonders (Soto/Marmol/etc) don’t generally get much in return either ~ teams don’t want to base a trade heavily off a guy with only one year of success. Also, not saying they will be one-hit-wonders for their career, but that’s what they are as of today. A good example would probably be Salty here. Jarrod was the hot prospect with sick numbers like Soto, but it still took 4 other top to solid prospects to get Tex from the Rangers.

“And Pie's ceiling IS Beltran and Sizemore, and its not me saying that. Its scouts and BP.”

…That’s fine, but you should really stop stating those names like he is that today or is even likely to ever hit it ~ that is where the problem comes in. See, today Pie is Juan Pierre with the bat; he just has a little pop instead of the speed. Will he ever become Beltran or Sizemore? At this point it looks like a huge longshot and Gary Mathews seems much, much more likely if he ever begins to figure anything out.

“Marmol and Hill both have like maybe 1.5 years of service time? So you have like Hill's five years in his prime, and Marmol's 25 to 30 year old years. I would think that it would do wonders for a rebuild,”

…Actually, Rich Hill may be eligible for Arbitration this year under the “Super-Two” rule, if not ~ he will be next year. A Starter in the #3 range will be making 3-6M in arbitration a good chunk of the time if he has proven his numbers for more than a year. By 2010 Hill will be making 6M or more if he continues his performance, and will be a FA I believe after the 2011 year meaning in 2010 they would be in the same situation they are currently in with Bedard. Might be a year off, but we know that between 2-3 years from today they will probably be looking to deal him just the same because his cost to the team will not be worth the prospects he would probably bring inretun if he keeps up the numbers.

If you are trading to get younger you don’t generally take guys with a couple years of experience, otherwise youre actually just continuing the cycle that forced you trading the first guy to begin with. See Oakland for an example of this ~ Haren was already a MLer, Arb-El under the Super-Two after 2 years and traded after being with the club only 3 years because he was going to be getting as expensive as the guy they were trading to begin with. Another batch of prospects was more valuable than 1 guy with a big contract. Marmol too will be ArbEl after next year which means if he is anything special he will be making some cash. By 2010 he too would be upwards of 5M and be just like the Hill situation… You may get these guys for 4-5 years, but you don’t necessarily get them cheap and you will probably be in todays boat tomorrow with them all. If you take guys without a couple years experience then you have the 2-3 pre-arb + the 3-4 Arb-years…

As Base is also telling you, the player value of the deal you proposed isn’t far off from what is needed, it’s the value to the team we are talking about that is where the problem comes in. The O’s don’t need a BP arm, a SP set to make a bunch of money and a failed CF prospect ~ they can get 3-4 top prospects from the Reds or Dodgers and better fit their needs/desires/longterm-goals. Marmol, Hill, Pie ~ they just don’t hold the value to teams like Balt that people would perceive them to have. Not saying it’s a horrible package, I just cant imagine the O’s taking it in the face of more longer-term value guys with possible higher ceilings from other clubs. Now do you understand what I have been trying to say?

I never said that Pie was Sizemore or Beltran. All I ever said is that those are some of his top comparables according to scouts and BP, and its his ceiling. He is NOT a failed CF prospect Dark, you need to stop saying that as well. The kid is what, like 22 and had an over .900 OPS in AAA last year? How can you possible call him a failed CF prospect? I'm sorry but thats what sets me off about our conversations. I don't feel like if he was on another team you would be calling him a failed prospect, but since he is a Cubs, he must be. The fact is that he is far from a failure at this point. And he only needs to hit like .250 to be a HUGE value to the Cubs next year. Again, why I say not to trade him.

A player is eligible for salary arbitration if he:

1. is ineligible for free agency
2. is without a contract
3. cannot agree with his current team on a new contract
4. has been on a major league roster or disabled list for at least three years

"Super Two" exception[3] - A player with at least two years of experience may be eligible for salary arbitration if he:

1. Meets the first three requirements from above
2. Played in the majors for at least 86 days in the previous season
3. Is among the top 17 percent for cumulative playing time in the majors amongst others with at least 2 years, but less than 3 years experience

He may or may not meet that criteria, thats to be determined.

"The O’s don’t need a BP arm, a SP set to make a bunch of money and a failed CF prospect"

You are obviously implying there that Pie is a failed CF prospect...which he is not. You are wrong there, you need to acknowledge that. He might be one in the future, but as a 22 year old, thats ludicrous.

There are so many other things wrong with that post, but I'll keep it nice.

Marmol = KRod after a year of success, or Lidge. Lidge has shown he is a head case and he just brought back a legit major league CF. That was after he made himself not even look that good...he, K-Rod, and Marmol all have similar stuff. Marmol is the reliever most likely to be a shut down closer in the bigs right now. Period. You act like he is Raphael Soriano, when really he is K-Rod after one year. You just aren't getting it. He isn't just some reliever that had a good year, he has the second best slider in the GAME, today! He also mixes a 96 MPH fastball in and hitters look foolish in the batters box. Not bad hitters, hitters like Pujols and Berkman. This is not Soriano here, this is Lidge before the meltdown, this is K-Rod.

I guess we need to call every band that has a #1 song before their CD even comes out a "one hit wonder." No, we shouldn't. That is a ridiculous thing to call guys that are currently good. Its not a thing of the past, they just put those numbers up! If you think Marmol is a "one hit wonder" and has to prove that he will be nasty for years to come, you are still proving everyones point on here. You couldn't have watched him!

Again, at this point in time Pie can not really be counted as much more than a failed prospect in terms of value ~ that is what he is doing his best to show us he is. Will he be traded like he holds Beltran-like value? No, he will be traded like he is having a really hard time producing on the big stage. Does it mean he will always suck? No, it doesn’t ~ but he’s sure doing his best to say he will never be any good…

Like I just told you in the other thread ~ Marmol also = Fernando Cabrera circa 2005 or Rafael Soriano or Clay Meridith or Rafael Perez or countless others with sick stuff a year or two of great numbers and an a completely unknown future.

“Marmol is the reliever most likely to be a shut down closer in the bigs right now. Period”

…Again, where do you get this? He has exactly 2 save opportunities in his entire career (which he blew one) and you are saying that he is the most likely player to be a dominating closer? Why, because some Cubs fans want to call him K-Rod? Even saying he is similar to K-Rod doesn’t even mean he will ever be able to handle the pressure of closing! You do realize that right? I mean, that was pretty much Fernando Cabrera’s downfall right there ~ closing; but he had just as sick of stuff… Stuff is only nice if you can actually show it over different situation over a long period of time ~ Marmol has one year (his first in relief) where he has shown he can use his stuff ~ it doesn’t mean HOF bound…

I act like he is Rafael Soriano? I think he would be lucky to be considered to be as good as Rafael Soriano at this point in time. Soriano has 3-4 dominating ML years under his belt and a MinorLeague WHIP of 1.08 & 487/185 K/BB rate to back it up ~ how many does Marmol have?

And if its about the scouting, then why did Marmol drop off everyones scouting reports last year? He just feel off with everyone talking about how he didn’t show anything impressive ~ nothing more really… He just became a “oh well” in the eyes of the scouts before jumping onto peoples radars…

“How much did Cordero get?”
…Who is Cordero? If you mean Chad ~ he hasn’t been traded. You are also talking about a guy with 4 years of dominating numbers out of the closer role instead of a guy with one year of impressive numbers in short-relief. It was posted a few days ago that the Nats would have packaged Cordero *with* Felipe Lopez to get Khalil Greene but it fell through for some reason. Tim stated this as a possible reason:
“The talks fizzled; it never sounded like something the Padres would be interested in. They usually grow their own relievers.”
But what we are left with is Cordero+Lopez isnt even worth Greene to the Padres, but you think Marmol alone is somehow worth so much? I’m really just lost to whatever you are trying to explain here because it just isnt backed up anywhere with any kind of evidence. Marmol is not different than others we have seen, similar guys have never really brought much return unless they had years of dominance and a middle reliever is not something you build a team around ~ all that stuff points to much, much less value than I guess you think he should have…

I hate to break it for all the reds fans but, LA still sits atop as far as offer of Andre Either, John Broxton, and CLayton Kershaw. The O's want Kemp instead of Andre. Then the seatle deal. The Reds will not come off of Bruce, so they are pretty much out of it. The O's want A MLB ready impact outfielder to protect Markakis. Are you going to blame them for wanting the Top chip to be an outfielder? They want to get the best one, if they can not, then they will extend Bedard and wait for Riemold or Snyder to get called up. They were one of the greatest franchises in the History of Baseball until about a decade ago, and they know with the talent they have in development that they are on there way back to that level. Bedard might arguably be the best pitcher in the game right now, just lost on an unpopular team with no national recognition. Any NL team with him would automatically be a plausible WORLD SERIES contender right now. For the Reds not to include bruce or the Dodgers to not include Kemp, is a very bad decision. An opportunity to get an ACE at 28 like Bedard, and the talent needed to acquire him is so rare. They are looking so far ahead, that, they are not thinking about this season. Unless you are in NY or Boston, you do not annually have a shot at the WS.
Especially if the Sox get Santana. NO ONE but either of those teams will compete for the WS every year. There is no salary cap in BB. It is a mute point.

Oh yeah, I forgot that you have previously explained over and over and over again that…
Carlos Marmol ~ “figured it out” in 2007…
Felix Pie ~ “figured it out” in AAA in 2007…
Giovanni Soto ~ “figured it out” in 2007…
Sean Marshall ~ “figured it out” in the first half of 2007…
Ted Lilly ~ “figured it out” in 2007…
Mark DeRosa ~ “Figured it out” in 2007…
Ryan Theriot ~ “Figured it out” in 2007…
Daryle Ward ~ “Figured it out” in 2007…

…Did I forget anyone?