Twins Back Down On Santana Demand

Murray Chass reports this morning that the Twins have scaled back their demands for Johan Santana, at least with the Yankees.  He says they are now willing to substitute Jeff Marquez for Ian Kennedy.  So the Yankees would have to give up Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Marquez (and one more player, I'm guessing). 

Marquez is a 23 year-old Double A righty who probably does not fall within the Yankees' top ten prospects.  He seems a more reasonable demand than Kennedy.  About three weeks ago, Bill Madden said the Yanks could've acquired Santana for Hughes, Cabrera, Marquez, and Mitch Hilligoss but bailed out for financial reasons.

Anyway, Chass adds that the Yanks would be hit by luxury tax if they acquired and extended Santana.  For example, a five-year, $100MM deal would result in a constant $7.5MM annually in luxury tax.  This does not seem to bother the Yankees.

Nick Cafardo wrote a few days ago that the Red Sox are standing pat with an offer of Coco Crisp, Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Jed Lowrie for Santana.  For what it's worth, David Ortiz doesn't think the Sox will get Johan.

Comments

[CubFan81]

I wonder if the scale back would be a signal to other teams to get involved? Maybe the Mets? I'm sure the Twins would take a slightly worse package to send him to the NL.

[Kramerica Industries]

CubFan81, while I respect your oppion I dont see any team taking a lesser package(especially for an elite talent)so that player is not in the same league as you. You have to ALWAyS takke the best deal for your team. Nothing less.

[CubFan81]

I agree, but I wasn't implying they take back garbage. It just seemed the quantity and quality of the NY/BOS packages far outweighed any other teams capabilities. With the Twins not insisting on so much from the Yankees and the Red Sox not caving on their end, another team may be able to come in with their best offers that just weren't up to snuff earlier.

[zs190]

isn't this old news, Tim? I recall reading an article you linked here a couple weeks ago that Twins were willing to take Hughes, Marquez, Melky, and Hilligoss, but Cashman didn't want to do it.

[Tim Dierkes]

That is a good point, I added that to the post. Not sure what the deal is, really.

[PhilsPhan]

Marquez has been ranked in the low teens in terms of organizational prospect rankings.

[Positive/Negative]

Bottom line-
Sox end up with Santana. I think the Twins front office can see the better package here...

[ArodSucksAtLife]

Murray Chass reports....

[JakeOD21]

Yeah. I personally like to get my baseball information from people not born before 1900.

[icedrake523]

I don't buy it. The Twins would scale back their demands for an NL team before they do so for the Yankees.

[gfulla]

If anything they're scaling back simply to drive the price back up later. They want the Yankees to either get committed to getting Santana again or they want them to get involved enough to put some pressure on the Sox. The BoSox have just been sitting pretty for the last couple weeks.

Anyways, my prediction is that the Sox get him for the Lester package or MAYBE if the twins are successful in putting enough pressure on the Sox, a fifth player will be added in. The fifth player won't be anything in the farm's top 10 though. He'd probably be some kind of decent A/AA position player.

Just my 2 cents anyways.

[tmar]

As for the comments on Luxury Tax, would the Yankees be on the hook for any amount sent to another team in a trade?

For example if they just wanted to dump a player like Giambi, just to name one, and they sent a ton of cash to a team along with him, does the cash sent count against their salary outlay for Luxury Tax calculations?

[metafrantic]

tmar, I THINK the answer to your question is yes. I'm 95% sure that the Red Sox paid luxury tax on the $3m they sent to Atlanta for Renteria.

[Ol' Goat]

While it is only speculation with all the trade talk going on about Santana, there has been a lot of talk about how he said he would like to play for the Yankees. What if Santana decided to tell the Twins the only deal he is really interested in is with the Yankees? Or maybe he just told them while Boston is a fine team, there is no way he is going to screw up his stats by pitching half his games in Fenway.

Being that Ortiz and Santana are friends, maybe they talked and Santana said that he really didn't want to pitch in Fenway. Johan has a number of friends on the Yankees as well. And those have said how Johan would be a good fit in the Bronx.

If a player is wanting to be traded and they have a NTC, they can dictate where they will go. They also might not like seeing the team they are going to having to give up too much in order to gain his services.

[04Forever]

i think the sox/twins are a few days away from agreeing, thats what has pushed this move by the twins. the twins must have picked one of the red sox deals, and they are trying to see if they can squeeze something alittle bit better out of the yanks. since they are the ones backing down on the price now, its shows they really want to move santana, and soon i believe. santana should be moved sometime this weekend, if the twins actually conceded their demands, somebody HAS to be close, why else would they do this?

[04Forever]

talk about a big spit in the face to the yanks organization and what the twins think about ian kennedy's "skills". the twins are willing to take an unranked double a pick over him, ouch.

[gfulla]

@04Forever: They're not taking anything "over" him. They're conceding to a lesser player as the Yankees won't include Kennedy in the current trade framework (hence the title "twins BACK DOWN on Santana demand"). As for the trade getting done this weekend, that would be pretty impressive considering the MLB front offices don't open again until next Tuesday (or maybe later...i know it's after the first at any rate).

I do agree the primary motivation here is putting pressure on the BoSox though. Without any competition the Twins don't have nearly as much leverage. That being said, I'd be surprised if they aren't at least hoping that feigning a concession would completely reignite the Yankees' interest in Santana and consequently the NYY/BOS "bidding war."

@Ol' Goat: Did you read Ortiz's comments? He doesn't think it's going to happen because:

"They don’t want him to go. (Minnesota) already gave Boston too many good things already"

That sounds more like a snide quip at the Twins for letting him go if anything. The Twins are going to trade Santana wherever they get the best offer; who they've lost in the past to other teams won't realistically have any influence on this kind of decision (especially a team like the Twins that is so dedicated to squeezing the most they can out of every penny and/or trade).

If anything, despite what Ortiz states in the article, it serves as a positive for Santana going to Boston. Ortiz and Santana were close enough that after all this time he still carries around pictures of Santana's kids? As for Santana wanting be a Yankee...he's never overtly said that and there hasn't been a SINGLE reliable sportswriter that's made that claim.

[Ol' Goat]

Doesn't mean anything like that unless you are a shameless Red Sox fan.

If the Twins are backing down on the Yankees offer it either means that Johan wants nothing to do with Fenway as his home park or the Twins are not happy with the Red Sox offer and are hoping to get them to up it.

[finite24]

Bottom line. Twins are trying to reignite a bidding war and probably found some other prospect they were high on (Hilligross?).

[gfulla]

Oh and 04Forever...what standard are you basing Jeff Marquez being "unranked" on? Unranked in the top 10? Baseballprospectus recently had him as one of the top 15 in the Yankees for example (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6957).

[Ol' Goat]

gfulla, Johan has friends in a number of clubs. Ortiz saying that can be taken as an out for his club. If Santana doesn't want to play the majority of his games in Fenway do you think Ortiz would say that? Or do you think he would take knowing his friend doesn't want to join him in Boston and spin it to being that the Twins would rather help out the Yankees than help out Boston yet again.

Please. Ortiz isn't going to say anything against his club, but being friends with Santana he might have an idea if Santana wanted to pitch in Fenway or not.

[04Forever]

gfulla, your link doesnt lead anywhere...

[NYBmbSquad]

Bottom line is that the Twins have coveted Phil Hughes all along and were playing with the Red Sox to try to squeeze Kennedy out of the Yankees in addition to Melky and Hughes. Now that they realize that the Yankees are not falling for it reality is beginning to set in and we now see that the Yankees offer was better all along. If the Twins actually wanted to do the Red Sox deal all along, why haven't they pulled the trigger? It's because they want a better deal. Clearly Hughes/Melky/Marquez is a better deal for the Twins than the Red Sox offers thus far. As a Yankees fan, I hope the Yanks balk and don't give up Hughes / Melky. I don't see the Red Sox going 6-7 years for Johan anyway, so the Yankees can sit back and take a chance at getting him as a FA after '08 and give up nothing but $.

[s51]

Here is the deal - The Twins WANT Hughes. The Twins have no leverage here. ZERO. Cashman knows it and so does Theo. Billy Smith is slowly realizing he can not get back a Top Ace pitching prospect for Santana... Lester is not that. Bucholz is, Hughes is... Kennedy is not.

Billy Smith has done a terrible job trying to deal the best pitcher in the game. That's what you get with a rookie GM. My advice tear up the existing contract and sign him to a 6 year 120 million dollar extension. Santana will sign for that to say with the Twins - it is what he wanted. You are guaranteeing him 120 million. It allows the Twins to make a run now and if don't work out in a couple season you could always trade him to the Mets, Yanks, Red Sox then.

On Marquez... Quality, solid prospect... Not ranked in the top 10 is a testament to how deep the Yanks are with young pitchers. Same age as Masterson and put up much, much better numbers than he did. Marquez broke out this season and he 90 FB and a nasty Curve. I see no difference in the terms prospect status.

If I were a Twins fan, which I am not, I would be pissed. Both packages are a joke. The Red Sox package is not a good one. STOP saying it is. Lowrie will not be a SS, his range is suspect and looks more like a 2b. Has power potential though... Masterson - I would ask for Bowden. A sinkerball pitcher at the dome? I guess it won't matter after 2010 with the new ballpark. He needs to perform and put up better numbers at AA. And Crisp? The Sox can't give him away. Come on - a player 2 years away from Free agency - 29 - he can't hit over .260 and his OBP is atrocious. He is 29 and on the decline. Crisp was suppose to take over for Damon - the Red Sox ended up with Endy Chavez. He is not the same player he was two years ago. John Lester... good, young pitcher, has showed tons of heart - the only thing worth a damn in this package, but not good enough for Santana.

Hughes is the stud. Melky a good, young ball player - still very young - 23. eventually a corner OF... brings tons of energy and excitement. Still needs to develop power. And Marquez. Maybe another piece, but who? It needs to be someone like a Jose Mojca or Carlos Urena, Dellin Bettances, or Kevin DeLeon.

The Twins should close their eyes and just sign him and deal with the consequences later. Santana will be very good for a long time. They f=have the dough.

[04Forever]

"Bottom line is that the Twins have coveted Phil Hughes all along and were playing with the Red Sox to try to squeeze Kennedy out of the Yankees in addition to Melky and Hughes."

"Bottom line is that the Twins have coveted Phil Hughes all along and were playing with the Red Sox to try to squeeze Kennedy out of the Yankees in addition to Melky and Hughes."

"Bottom line-
Sox end up with Santana. I think the Twins front office can see the better package here..."

bottom line, people have been saying bottom line to many times.

[gfulla]

"Doesn't mean anything like that unless you are a shameless Red Sox fan.

If the Twins are backing down on the Yankees offer it either means that Johan wants nothing to do with Fenway as his home park or the Twins are not happy with the Red Sox offer and are hoping to get them to up it."

Did you actually READ what i said or did you just skim it...

'I do agree the primary motivation here is putting pressure on the BoSox though. Without any competition the Twins don't have nearly as much leverage. That being said, I'd be surprised if they aren't at least hoping that feigning a concession would completely reignite the Yankees' interest in Santana and consequently the NYY/BOS "bidding war."'
quote from my post

key points:
-trying to get more out of Red Sox
-trying to get Yanks more interested because they haven't been lately (and the lack of interest is based on MANY reports from yankees insiders and yankees brass)

As for your conjecture about where Santana wants to play, it's just that, conjecture. You don't have any special insight into Santana's mind and you're just throwing out ideas that suit your desires. Even worse you're calling me a "shameless Red Sox fan" because i challenged your lack of evidence. There is a slight chance he may want to ONLY be a Yankee, but there is an equal chance he ONLY wants to play for the Sox. Nothing has been legitimately reported on this topic and the fact that there has been more back and forth between the Sox and Twins than the yanks and twins absolutely suggests no comment of this sort was ever made.

[gfulla]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6957

Try that. The link was trying to include the closing parentheses and the period so all you had to do was take them out.

[04Forever]

"Bottom line. Twins are trying to reignite a bidding war and probably found some other prospect they were high on (Hilligross?)."

oppps, i forgot one and added one twice instead, looks like im not helping the situation out much huh :p

[04Forever]

gfulla, i retract 50% of what i said now. he is a good player and would be a good trade canidate, but still, technically wasnt ranked, he simply gets a just missed according to your list

[Ol' Goat]

gfulla, my post about being a shameless Red Sox fan was meant for 04forever as he was talking about how Kennedy being out was somehow a spit in the face to Kennedy.

In this whole mess we have seen the Yankees pull out and leave with NO OFFER ON THE TABLE. There is no current offer from the Yankees. The only ones who keep getting reported are the Red Sox and its the same offering they had up all along according to every report we see, or a smaller package if Elsbury is included.

I am not claiming to know Santana's mind, however, there is the problem that Fenway is unfriendly to left handed pitchers. Add to that there has been no progress on the talks between the Twins and the Red Sox - unless you think that progress is them going back and forth with the same non-deal progress.

If the Twins are looking to get the Yankees back into the bidding there has to be a reason for it. Either that reason is they want Hughes, which they had indicated they did a number of times, or they want to get Boston to up their offer.

Thing is, the Boston offer has not increased since the winter meetings. Even when the Yankees were in on the talks and offered Hughes. Unless you consider upping the offer by taking away players.

Look at the whole mess, add up all the pieces and you might get some glimmer of what might happen. However, anything any of us post here would be speculations. Some more educated than others, but speculation all the same.

[Jared78]

"Here is the deal - The Twins WANT Hughes. The Twins have no leverage here. ZERO. Cashman knows it and so does Theo. Billy Smith is slowly realizing he can not get back a Top Ace pitching prospect for Santana... Lester is not that. Bucholz is, Hughes is... Kennedy is not."

As a sox fan I agree with every thing you say...except that Lester is the only thing worth a damn...even if Lowrie is not able to stick at short-stop he would be a huge plus at 2b. He has a great obp, bb/k ratio, and developing power...I could eventually see a .370-.380 obp with 15-20 homeruns, and a ton of doubles...whether that comes from short or second is irrelevant really, unless you are a big on Alex Casilla. Regardless I hope the Twins resign Santana or the Sox at least stick to this offer and get Santana or walk away. I agree that Hughes is the prize...if there was only a near mlb-ready bat, better then Melky it would be a no-brainer. Right now neithe rpackage seems enticing enough to not pony up the extra $$ that you kow they have available.

[gnick55]

Isn't it the Yankees who have spent over a billion dollars over the last five years and won zero championships. The Red Sox don't need him, they've won twice recently without him and they can win again without him. Last pitcher of Santana's status to change teams in his prime was Mussina. And we all know how that's working out right now.

[metafrantic]

gnick,

first I have to preface this by saying that I'm a Red Sox fan.

Mussina signed as a free agent before the 2001 season; he played 6 years of that contract before renegotiating his current 2-year deal. The Yankees paid him $75m for those 6 years (avg. $12.5m/year).

Mussina's AVERAGE year, 2001-2006: 31 starts, 15-9, 200.1 IP, 173/42 K/BB, 3.80 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Maybe the Yankees shouldn't have given a 37-year-old Mussina that 2-year, 22m extension, but the first contract worked out fine for them.

[gfulla]

S51 you tried to compare Masterson to Jeff Marquez and claimed Marquez put up better numbers? Well there's a couple problems with this statement. I'll start by posting relevant numbers for each pitcher this year.
Jeff Marquez
AA Trenton Thunder
3.65 ERA over 155.1 innings
2.55 BB/9
5.45 /9
.270 OPP AVG
1.35 WHIP
------------------------
Justin Masterson
High A Lancaster Jethawks
4.33 ERA over 95.2 innings
2.07 BB/9
5.27 K/9
.275 OPP AVG
1.31 WHIP
AA Portland Seadogs
4.34 ERA over 58 IP
2.79 BB/9
9.16 K/9
.225 OPP AVG
1.16 WHIP

[gfulla]

Comparing Masterson's numbers from his first 95.2 IP they seem very similar to Marquez's except he was in Hi A instead of AA. His ERA was very low but that isn't usually a very good statistic for minor league pitchers since fielding is more unreliable and in this case park factor also needs to be considered. Clear Channel Stadium is considered to be one of the more hitter friendly parks in all of the minors as far as i understand it (its high altitude for one thing).
Then when we look at Masterson's time in AA, his numbers, with the exception of ERA, were MUCH better. He was over 3.5 strike outs better per 9, while only throwing .24 more balls. His whip was .19 lower and he held opponents to a .045 lower AVG.
Also, baseball america placed him at #13 of the top 20 in the Eastern league (the AA league they both played in) while Marquez didn't even make the list. Masterson also placed #5 for his time in the California league (may seem surprising considering his stats, but the league as a whole is very hitter friendly from what i've read...presumably because of park factors?).

Now that that discussion is done, on to Crisp. Where do you get your information on him? He can't hit over .260? That's pretty interesting considering he's never hit under .260 in his entire career. Even if you take out the two stellar, final years in Cleveland Crisp's career average is around .267. Not great but by NO means the worst among qualified center fielders. You also realize that Melky's OPS was only .006 better?
Even more you're leaving out Crisp's defining attribute, his defense. This year, Coco was tied for first in the entire majors with Ichiro for fielding percent, he exclusively held first in Range Factor and he was tied for second in Zone Rating.

[gfulla]

@Ol' Goat: Well looking at the current situation, there's really no reason for the Sox to try and rush the trade. They have more to gain by waiting than the Twins because Santana for them is a luxury not a necessity. They also don't really have any competition until the Yankees decide to get back in it (which the Twins are obviously going to push for) so they don't have much reason to change their offer.
In the end, i think this whole ordeal is far from over. I think Santana certainly WILL be traded and either for the Lester package possibly with a 5th lower ranked player added in or for a package better than Hughes, Melky, Marquez and someone further down the list. The further down the list would likely end up becoming someone rated somewhere BETWEEN Marquez and Kennedy (which would have most Yankees fans kicking and screaming i imagine). I'm not even going to attempt a guess as to the unknowns, because the Twins always seem to hit you upside the head with someone that just makes you go "huh??"

[gfulla]

Just noticed when talking about Masterson at lancaster i said his ERA was low, obviously (from the way i followed it up) i meant it was a bit high.

Typepad really needs an edit option.

[halo27]

maybe after missing out on cabrera the angels get in on santanna?
something like
adenheart/willits/E.Santanna/aybar for santanna?
maybe throw in saunders instead of one of the other prospects and its a good deal both ways

[lukestaudt]

I think that this is a great trade for the both the twins and the Yanks. The twins need a center fielder, and Cabrera is a nice player already and is a future all-star. Hughes would be given a spot in the thin rotation. He seems solid.

[04Forever]

halo27

sorry, but i just dont think its going to happen. angels really havent made a legit offer since the winter meetings, and they were shot down in an instant. besides, angels need some power bats, not pitching, angels are a pitching and defense force

[TheGrinch]

I'm tired of the whole thing. Just trade him already. If I was the Yankees or Red Sox, I would have pulled out a long time ago because of all of the B.S. He's a great pitcher, but c'mon already. How long has this been going on--three months?

[gfulla]

04, the angels actually never made a legit offer; there's just been occasional talk about them getting involved. Maybe you're thinking of Seattle? They completely pulled out around then.

The only players that have ever been involved were Mets, Mariners, Sox, and Yanks.

[s51]

Coco? No one wants Coco. Period. Outside of his two stellar seasons with Cleveland he batted .266 in 99 games, .268 in 145 games, and .264 in 105 games. I should rephrased it and said he can't hit over .260. He has a fine glove and great range. He is 29 will be a free agent very soon - I would rather have the 23 year OF.

Marquez & Masterson are comparable prospects.

[johnbuckformvp]

As A KC Fan i noticed some iodiotic things.

"Cabrera is a nice player already and is a future all-star. " Melky is not that good. He will be league average OF at best. Coco's ops was almost equal and Coco's D-fence is much better. The twins would clearly make the right choice if they took the Boston package.

Masterson and Marquez are not comparable. Masterson has set-up potential or mid rotation starter. He is a young derek lowe who needs to develop. Marquez is mabye a 5th starter.

[metafrantic]

"Coco? No one wants Coco. Period."

Really? Considering that the Braves, White Sox, Nationals, Rangers and Twins all spoke to the Red Sox about acquiring Crisp, I'm wondering what your definition of "no one" is. the White Sox and Rangers are still interested, at least.

[04Forever]

"Coco? No one wants Coco. Period."

your either a yankee fan or a very simple minded baseball fan to say nobody wants one of the best defensive centers in the game as of right now. all of your comments about how seemingly all the yankee players involved in the santana situation are better then absolutely anything the red sox could possibly offer, makes me think your just a yankee fan

[04Forever]

there is more to a player other then his batting average or his era.

[gfulla]

The fact that after pulling together all those stats and quotes from various sources he still maintained the same inaccurate BS without even acknowledging a single point made is the final straw... I'm tired of people just repeating the same opinion over and over again hoping that'll make it true, ESPECIALLY when they don't even give any basis for the opinion.

I can respect you might prefer Melky (mostly because you phrased it as an opinion), but to state fallacies like no one wants Coco is foolish. If you actually bothered to keep yourself informed on the issue you'd know, as Metafrantic pointed out, that at least 5 teams spoke to the Red Sox about acquiring Coco so far this off-season. You can find the information on this very site if you bother to read back just a few weeks.

As for Masterson and Marquez being the same in ability...did you look at a single thing i wrote? This goes back to the whole "repeating an opinion until it beings true" i guess.

Mastersons stats were significantly better (especially when you consider how the California league stats were inflated). If they were equivalent then find me one comparison showing that they are... I already showed you my comparison (Masterson ranking #13 in eastern league while Marquez didn't even get in the top #20 AND how Mastersons stats in the Eastern league were significantly better than Marquez).

[jmoy]

It is actually known that Santana would really like to be in the NL far more then the AL. As for NY or Boston, he has not said a word.

Looking at the deals, they actually all look about the same. Some good points and some not so good. Bostons is nice in that Coco is a very solid CF and Lester would be a good starter while Masterson could be a very good MR, which the Twins love, and Lowrie could fill a middle infield spot. All this is with the Twins looking forward to moving into thier new park in 2010.
The Yankees offer has a big upside with HUghes but Cabrera is no better then Crisp, only younger, which is why they wanted Kennedy so badly. Marquez is fine but doesn't look to be anything special.

Also, to reply to the comment that Smith has done a bad job in this whole trade thing for Minnesota, I disagree. I think he has done a pretty good job. He hasn't panicked and taken the Yankees "last offer deadline" and has also held out for what he feels Santana is worth in a trade. He will be able to get the same deal in March as he is getting now so why rush. Also, who knows what kind of deal he could get in July is say NY trails Boston by 5 and is having pitching problems again, or if an injury surfaces to someone. Time is on the Twins side and Smith is using it well IMO.

[gnick55]

The difference between the Sox and Yankees in this whole situation is the Sox just proved that they can win a championship without him. They don't need him and can win without him (although that Detriot lineup scares me a bit). The Yankees, on the other hand, have one proven pitcher in his prime (Wang), two proven pitchers past their prime (Pettite and Mussina), and a bunch of young question marks who have yet to truly prove themselves in the bigs.

[s51]

Again - Marquez and Masterson are SIMILAR prospects to me. I completely disagree with you that Masterson had better numbers than Marquez in AA, not interested in High A stats.

I am quite shocked about Masterson being named #13 especially after only 10 AA starts in Portland. Especially the fact that his later starts were awful - Posting 8.30 era in 5 August starts. Although his July starts were pretty superb. Masterson also had major problems from the stretch this season.

Marquez went 15-9 with 3.65 era and helped lead a staff that won the Eastern League this year. Marquez showed more consistency in 2007 - 27 starts and 155 IP at AA is a larger sample than Masterson's 10 starts.

Coco! - can we stop. Here is my point - what do you think the White Sox or Rangers would give to get Coco. What do you think is equal value for Coco? And what do you think those teams are offering for Coco.